Tuesday 2/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Sunland Park: Feb. 28 Stakes Spot Plays
John Mucciolo

Sunland Park's quartet of black-type races originally slated for Sunday will be rescheduled to Tuesday, as reported by Daily Racing Form.

Here are selections for the three supporting stakes on Mine That Bird Derby Day.
Race 10 – Island Fashion S.

A compact field of five three-year-old fillies will go postward in the one-mile affair. #1 Flying Connection (9-5) burned a lot of money when third in her local stakes debut for conditioner Todd Fincher, but the daughter of Nyquist will race with blinkers off for the first time and improvement is expected. The Zia Princess S. romper is bred to love a route of ground, and she also has the tactical speed to be in the mix from the opening bell. The Kentucky-bred bay will have regular pilot Alfredo Juarez Jr. in the controls.
Race 11 – Red Hedeman Mile

A total of 11 New Mexico-bred sophomores will vie in the $100,000 contest. #7 Antonios Mark (4-1) has improved his Brisnet Speed figure in each career try to date and is proven running a route of ground, too. Marking gelding finished a closing third in a recent stakes endeavor while making his local debut, and the chestnut will improve off the short layoff with added ground to work with. The stalker will have Oscar Ceballos in the stirrups.

Fincher’s #9 Sambas Mark (6-1) also gets a look coming off of a smart maiden win while sprinting on the surface last time out. The bay has never run a bad race and seems like he'll appreciate more ground to navigate. Juarez inherits the mount.
Race 13 – Albert and Henry Dominguez S.

A big field of 11 will vie in the 1 1/16-mile finale. #7 All Chrome (10-1) is not the most reliable win play in the race, but I liked his local prep when an even fourth in an allowance dash, and the Silver Wagon gray has a lot of exotics appeal to me at a price. Lynette Baldwin pupil has put in two solid efforts in succession and will also have a fast early tempo for which to rally into late. Felipe Valdez has the assignment.

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Sunland Park: How to bet the 2023 Mine That Bird Derby
John Mucciolo

A total of nine sophomores will go 1 1/16 miles on the Sunland Park dirt in the $100,000 Mine That Bird Derby, now rescheduled for Tuesday. The event is the major local prep for the Sunland Derby on the surface on Mar. 26, and it attracted a solid cast including three from the barn of Todd Fincher.

#8 Malmo (10-1) has yet to run fast enough to topple a field of this kind, but the colt will run long for the first time and I expect him to take a big step forward in this endeavor. By Nyquist, he has been first or second in all but one of his four career tries to date, including a nice runner-up allowance result while sprinting in his local bow most recently.

The dark bay boasts the pedigree to thrive going around two turns and seems poised to give a nice showing of himself at a nice number in his second run off the short layoff. Luis Fuentes picks up the mount and will have the upset contender forwardly placed from the opening bell.

#4 Henry Q (5-2) graduated at Santa Anita last time out and will have his first race since arriving in the Fincher shedrow. The $125,000 son of Blame improved his Brisnet Speed figure with each career outing leading up to Tuesday and wouldn’t surprise despite taking the ambitious maiden-to-stakes class jump. He could be moving best of all inside the final furlong for jockey Edwin Maldonado.

Steve Asmussen’s #7 How Did He Do That (2-1) displayed a solid turn of foot in his first race with blinkers on when finishing a closing second in his local debut in preparation for Tuesday. The Good Magic colt shows a pair of useful morning drills in the interim, and the chestnut will benefit from having a start on this track. Alfredo Juarez will be in the silks atop the obvious win contender.
Mine That Bird Wagers

$10 win and place: #8 Malmo ($20)
$5 exacta: key box 8 with 4, 7 ($20)
$2 trifecta: box 4, 7, 8 ($12)

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#11 Madelyn's Soldier He'll need a scratch to get into the race, but I think he has a sneaky chance here while getting back around one turn. He didn't stay going two turns last out, but his sprint debut was better when racing with open company at the $15,000 level. Interesting if he goes.
#9 A Soldier's Way He's probably supposed to win this for a top team off the claim, and they bring him right back at the same level with a running line from last out that would probably do the trick here if he repeats it. Respect the barn with this type.
#6 All of Us Don't think there is a whole lot of depth to worry about in this group, so I wonder if this guy might be able to flash some speed while cutting back after battling early and fading badly in the debut run with special weight company. Wouldn't be shocked if he popped this one.
Race Summary Madelyn's Soldier is appealing at a mid-range price if he's able to get into the field, as he went evenly in the debut with open company, and he's capable of a bounce back effort today while turning back.

Delta Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#8 My Book He has some tables to turn from the two- and three-back races, but I really liked the score last time out when he assumed command after tracking early. He's obviously not that reliable as a 9-year-old with three lifetime wins from 46 starts, but let's see if he's the hot hand right now heading in the right direction.
#6 M and M's Custom He's a reliable type who finished ahead of the top choice last month, but he'll also be a much shorter price in here. Think he makes sense, but he's not always formidable in the final yards and and could be vulnerable. Obvious player.
#9 Johnny's Journey He took a big step back last time out off the three-month break, but he isn't far removed from some lines that would make him very tough in here. Totally depends on the price, but I wouldn't feel too confident sitting here at any sort of shorter number.
Race Summary My Book made his way through a series of a few improving races, and I'm hoping he's able to sustain that trajectory -- or at least hold it -- for another race. He should be a decent price, and I'm hoping they'll find another good first-jump trip.

Delta Downs - Race #11
Picks Notes
#10 Red Raider Xpress He raced for three times this price in the debut run and has some room to come forward with that first start under his belt, but I would probably want something just a bit better than the 6/1 ML price to sign on here with much enthusiasm.
#2 Russet Moon He is impossible to trust after 16 starts, including a few at this kind of level, but he's quick enough to be in the mix early, and he's a big threat in here if he is able to get back to his baseline effort.
#7 Talk to Tokey He finds the easiest spot of his career, but the progressive class drops still aren't a great sign without any real success to show for it. He isn't going to surprise anyone if he lands this, but something like his last only makes him a player -- not necessarily the one, at a price that might suggest otherwise.
Race Summary Red Raider Xpress drops with some upside as a second-timer, and I just can't get excited about the two logical players in Russet Moon and Talk to Tokey -- they both seem likely to get bet, and 'Moon isn't brimming with excuses at this point in time.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 LEFT THE BAR (4-1) Took money and dueled through fast splits in debut, shortens up to 5F.
#7 SUGAR SHANE (9-2) ‘Finished well’ for second in short sprint two starts ago.
#1 COMPANY’S DREAM (7-2) Shows long, steady work tab, draws difficult post for first start.
Race Summary LEFT THE BAR showed good zip for a half-mile before the deep closers arrived in a heavily-bet 6F debut. He could go non-stop in this field with blinkers on. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 JAZZ HANDS (8-5) Faced heavy hitters in latest, strictly the one to beat with duplicate effort.
#1 POVERTY BAY (6-1) Sustained 4-wide rally on turn, held off the favorite to win at this level.
#6 STAND TO (5-1) Steady check-getter, winless long time, changes rider.
Race Summary JAZZ HANDS dueled through wicked fractions and held third behind stakes winner Truth Seeker (10-36, $264k) and $500k earner Minister of Soul. He should break through with his first victory in six starts at Turf Paradise on the cutback to 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 WILD ARCH (7-2) Hit board in half of starts, just missed in latest, nearing $100k Club.
#8 SIGNATURE COLORS (6-1) Drew away at 5-1/2F, blew clear stretch lead at 6-1/2F.
#4 GOLDEN SUN DROPS (3-1) Versatile, consistent and has held improved form.
Race Summary WILD ARCH, one of two entrants with two wins, was on hold until she advanced 4-wide on the final turn. She moved into a moderate pace and missed in a photo finish, earning a playback with an extra half-furlong to run. Bet to win and place.

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Racing Dudes Delta Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Lily's Creed 7-5 T M Amoss V Del-Cid
2 #3 Boston Belle 9-2 K Segura J Stokes
3 #8 Moonlightmaddy 3-1 E Ramirez J Dominguez
4 #6 Conga Boy 6-1 R Diodoro C McMahon
5 #9 A Soldier's Way 9-2 K Broberg T Thornton
6 #5 Bri 5-1 K Broberg T Thornton
7 #2 Mo Vodka 5-1 S Delany P Ramirez
8 #8 Cheerfor Mshawish 4-1 K L Roberts, Sr. V Del-Cid
9 #6 M and M's Custom 3-1 K Broberg T Thornton
10 #6 Search Engine 2-1 T M Amoss V Del-Cid
11 #7 Talk to Tokey 5-2 C D Pomier V Del-Cid

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Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Catty Dom 9-5 N Summers K S Tohill
2 #3 Clue 6-1 D Cappellucci A J Juarez, Jr.
3 #3 Crafty Warrior 9-5 J H Marr K S Tohill
4 #7 Coming Abstraction 2-1 D E Martinez J L Torres
5 #4 Roll On Camron 2-1 T W Fincher A J Juarez, Jr.
6 #9 Life Jacket 9-2 L C Rojero L H Rodriguez
7 #5 Sly 7-2 M Valdez-Cabral, Jr. F Amparan
8 #4 Mt. Taylor 2-1 S Armstrong M T Fuentes, Jr.
9 #9 Eli Dancer 9-5 M Valdez-Cabral, Jr. F Amparan

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Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 High Flyn Eagle 8-5 R Guillen M Osuna
2 #5 Next Journey 2-1 J R Evans L Negron
3 #5 Left the Bar 4-1 L A Perren L A Valenzuela
4 #2 Jazz Hands 8-5 M L Hernandez A Valdes
5 #2 Silent Declaration 7-2 M L Pierce A M Cruz
6 #7 Paint Me Lucky 9-2 M L Hernandez J A Leon
7 #9 Wild Arch 7-2 J Silva, Jr. A Arboleda
8 #4 Thirty Seconds Out 3-1 J Silva, Jr. A Arboleda

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 3	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 12:49
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PURRFECT MISTRESS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PURRFECT MISTRESS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating . CLASSY MISS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RAINBOW TROUT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good R ace within the last 30 days.
2	PURRFECT MISTRESS	4/1	5/2
1	CLASSY MISS	5/1	6/1
5	RAINBOW TROUT	9/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PURRFECT MISTRESS	2	4/1	Front-runner	77	72	82.6	45.6	42.1
1	CLASSY MISS	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	60	57.7	56.6	53.6
4	SCARF	4	5/2	Trailer	70	59	42.8	54.0	43.0
5	RAINBOW TROUT	5	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	65	57	65.2	54.2	48.7
3	WITHOUT A VIEW	3	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	58	54	64.0	52.0	43.5
6	POP THE CLUTCH	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	44	45.4	42.2	32.2

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland ParkPURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 13	$1 Exacta / $1Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 5:45P
ALBERT AND HENRY DOMINGUEZ MEMORIAL H. - FOR FOUR -YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD, REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FREE TO NOMINATE; $600 TO ENTER. WEIGHTS ASSIGNED. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2021-2023 WILL BE USED TO DETERMINE THE ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR HORSES OF EQUAL WEIGHT. (INCLUDES $50,000 (EST) FROM NMHBA PURSE ENHANCEMENT FUND. BALANCE FROM SUNLAND PARK PURSE FUND). NOMINATIONS CLOSE ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17, 2023 AT 4:00 P.M.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. STRAWBERRY WHISKY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STRAWBERRY WHISKY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHEESE TRAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. THUNDER DOME: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	STRAWBERRY WHISKY	5/1	7/2
1	CHEESE TRAY	3/1	6/1
6	THUNDER DOME	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	STRAWBERRY WHISKY	8	5/1	Stalker	94	92	89.8	89.8	84.8
3	COMET CAUSEY	3	10/1	Stalker	88	76	75.8	78.8	64.3
1	CHEESE TRAY	1	3/1	Stalker	95	91	71.6	81.2	75.2
11	MCMERCELUS	11	10/1	Stalker	88	83	69.2	73.0	56.0
7	ALL CHROME	7	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	88	76.8	76.8	66.8
2	I THINK I'M HERE	2	8/1	Trailer	87	79	82.2	81.8	71.8
4	JET N G	4	6/1	Trailer	95	87	76.0	76.0	66.5
6	THUNDER DOME	6	7/2	Trailer	94	92	70.6	84.6	80.6
10	THE LAST FEAT	10	20/1	Trailer	77	58	58.0	58.0	36.0
5	ELLIOT	5	20/1	Trailer	77	75	51.6	67.4	48.4
9	BODIE GOT GOLD	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	97	89	66.4	60.6	47.6

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,400 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#3 CHORIST (ML=5/2)
#2 SPECIAL ASSISTANT (ML=3/1)
#4 PHARIBE (ML=10/1)


CHORIST - It looks like Salazarbecerra had to know this filly on February 7th when riding her for the initial time. Back aloft again today. Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a good contest on Feb 7th. SPECIAL ASSISTANT - Hernandez and Diehl perform well when they unite. It's hard to beat a +300 ROI for a jock and trainer. This mare is in first-rate form right now. Finished first last time out and comes back promptly. After a pair of sprints, she's routing today, which is probably what this mare wants to do. PHARIBE - I certainly see good luck for this horse right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SEACHROME (ML=2/1), #5 BE SHARP (ML=4/1),

SEACHROME - The morning-line favorite is shaky here with the lack of drills. Three-year old versus older for the first time is a tough one. Have to see this effort first. BE SHARP - Hard to play this filly today since the event isn't limited to three year olds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 CHORIST on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 82

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 28, 2022. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 28 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MIAS MOONBEAM 3/1
# 9 YES BAB 5/1
# 7 OUTLAW X. 6/1

MIAS MOONBEAM is the best bet in this race. Delcid has a win percent of 19 over the last month. Has formidable Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager here. Players get an edge when playing this trainer in a dirt sprint race. YES BAB - Has to be carefully examined in here if only for the solid Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last outing. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 75 speed rating which is one of the best in this group. OUTLAW X. - Has recorded sound speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Has some interesting handicapping angles which make this one a wager.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 NEXT JOURNEY 2/1
# 3 BODEMONSTER 8/1
# 6 TOUR THE WORLD 3/1

NEXT JOURNEY looks very strong to best this field. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look quite good in this race. Negron ought to be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in here. Could beat this group given the 78 speed fig recorded in his last outing. BODEMONSTER - Don't let this gelding slip past you. Could prove victorious at big odds. Facing a much less demanding field of horses than last time out. TOUR THE WORLD - Lund has a formidable 16 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Earned a solid speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 1:43pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#8 LUCKY AS A SEVEN (ML=8/1)
#7 CAUSES TROUBLE (ML=6/1)


LUCKY AS A SEVEN - Farro must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Feb 15th and now goes for two in a row. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a nice outing on February 15th. CAUSES TROUBLE - This front running sort is running a shorter distance today. Should promote his chances to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PENSAMIENTO (ML=8/5), #2 BEAST OR FAMINE (ML=3/1), #4 TANKINATOR (ML=7/2),

PENSAMIENTO - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts. BEAST OR FAMINE - This horse hasn't been close in either of his last couple of races. Hard to recommend any animal with decreasing Equibase speed figs of 81/56/49. TANKINATOR - This thoroughbred likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Keep out of the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #8 LUCKY AS A SEVEN on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: San Jose St -3 over Colorado St