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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 5, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card scheduled. The weather should be dry and the track fast. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

2-Delray Dude (8-1)-Going to fade the 2 morning line chalks in this leg (3-5). This veteran takes a good step up but this appears to be a leg to swing for a price. Davis Jr should have this veteran in play and knows how to win at Nfld (148-22-22-18).
4-Street Beats (6-1)-Came 3rd in its only Nfld race and now will be making the 4th start of the season. Beaten chalk at Btva raced on a sloppy track and hasn't shown a win on a wet surface (0-7). Should offer a nice price, will need a top effort but there aren't any standouts in this field.
7-Speedy Dominic A (6-1)-As often happens Dominic had an excuse. He took the long way around last week versus Open company. Drops to a better level to post a win and Merriman will probably put him in a position for a picture.

Race 12

2-Bernie (9/2)-Was bet down to 1/2 versus this kind last time and caught a brutal trip. Did finish 3rd but was DQ'd and will use and hope the journey isn't as bumpy.
4-Catch Me Conrad (9-1)-Stepped up to this class last week and went off at 42-1, and really outraced his odds. Kept coming despite being hung the mile. Not sure if ready to beat this kind but off that effort it's best to respect. Did score in 1.51 here last year.
8-Bronx Seelster (8-1)-Winner of 3 straight has the gate speed to land on the point or close to the top. Appears worthy of a swing at the morning line price versus this crew.

Race 13

4-Rockin TJ (4-1)-Has been battling at this class in the last 2 starts and hit the board. May find this field to be not as deep and could take a picture at a fair price.
5-Seeing Eye Single (6/5)-Steps up a few notches after a win but this veteran knows how to get it done on a smaller oval. The Burke trainee posted some fast miles at the Pomp and stopped the timer in 152.1 here last week.

Race 14

1-Trump That (7/2)-From the rail this 8-year-old could get it done in a race without much form. Drops and can be on the lead or close to it throughout.
9-Kimg Corona (2-1)-This is another veteran who should still have enough speed to down this group and it will be up to Merriman to figure out how. This program chalk may deserve the billing and still remembers how to take a picture but will need a trip.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,4,7/2,4,8/4,5/1,9
Total Bet=$36

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Markswoman She'll need better than the fading Churchill tries from last fall, but she has shown a small pop of speed at points, and there's a chance that will prove very dangerous as she meets the softest field she's ever seen.
#2 Ziggzappa She went evenly near the tail in the debut try and has a few lengths to turn on the filly that beat her last out, but maybe she has just enough upside here to step up for a piece.
#7 My Lady Luna She has landed a couple shares already, but she has never been a serious threat to a winner yet. Maybe the change of scenery off the claim will wake her up a bit.
Race Summary #6 Chrome Racer is another who fits well in here, but I worry that she's going to get bet as the chalk and isn't a total standout against this group.

Fair Grounds - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Zippin Pippin She showed some chasing pace and stayed on well when facing softer in the debut run, and she's not running into any of the big-name barns in here who dominate these types of races, so let's see if she can handle the rise.
#2 Fearless Kristie She's the 8/5 ML offering in here off the strengths of a series of very quick drills to so far this year, and as mentioned above -- don't think she's going to have to be any kind of star to land this one.
#5 Hammeredonhappiness No solid leans in here for me after the top two, but this debuter goes for a team that is capable of better than they've shown this season. Maybe for a share in a soft spot.
Race Summary Zippin Pippin has an experience edge on most of these, and I'm hoping that will pay off as she steps up into what doesn't feel like the toughest spot for the local level.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Mister Mmmmm He has some upside while getting back to the grass today, and I like that he has the ability to settle a bit off speed. Hoping Corey lets him relax just a touch and watch everything unfold.
#7 My Pal Mattie He's probably best of the speed with a better draw near the outside, but I think he's going to have to work to get the best of the early battle and win the late one. Wouldn't surprise on his best if he's just speed of the speed.
#2 Robo He didn't stay when going long in stakes company last out, but he might get a decent spying trip while turning back for this one. Wouldn't be shocked to see him find one of two of these a bit too good today.
Race Summary There have very few turf sprints here this season, but forward players have fared a bit better than they have going long, but I still think there are too many committed speed players for one of them to land it. Mister Mmmm might be an okay price with a good race shape looming -- there is speed signed on inside and out here.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 SNOW HILL (7-2) Handled transition from sprints, back at proper level, draws rail.
#3 MOONSHINE CAT (5-2) Plays to a steady beat, stands 12/2-2-4 at this distance.
#5 APPLAUD THE BEACH (9-5) Good first gear, runs for the cheapest tag of her career.
Race Summary SNOW HILL won back-to-back, one-mile races at Golden Gate recently but remained eligible for this ‘non-winners of two’ condition. She earned her top speed figure in a much tougher field last out and is worth a win and place bet from the rail.

Golden Gate - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 HUNTERS GHOST (3-1) In tight, lacked room on turn, ran second to fave at 6F.
#2 OUR EXPECTATION (7-5) Rallied 5-wide to finish behind ‘Hunter,’ gets pace to run at.
#3 AMANOFMYSTATURE (12-1) Gets class relief, projects ideal trip, use in gimmick wagers.
Race Summary HUNTERS GHOST lost valuable momentum while in tight chasing the winning favorite, but he angled off the rail and finished second, a head in front of late-running OUR EXPECTATION, the morning-line favorite in today’s race. The shorter sprint distance could produce a similar result. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 AUSTRIAN NAVY (7-2) Steps up while In good form, claimed again, knows how to win.
#4 A DIME FOR ME (3-2) Odds-on favoritism follows her but she seldom disappoints.
#1 LADY IN A HURRY (12-1) Can rally for a piece at double-digit odds on distance cutback.
Race Summary AUSTRIAN NAVY won when setting, pressing and stalking the pace in her last four starts. She faces better rivals in this spot but can return a quick claim dividend for her new connections and zero in on $100,000 in earnings. Bet to win and place.