Sunday 3/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 08:57 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/12/23

March 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Raji 1-Phosphorescence
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast : A maiden special weight grass miler ushers in the Sunday program (don’t forget to move your clocks ahead!) but most of these already have been exposed as being of maiden claiming material so let’s take a shot with Raji in his first try around two turns. A closing second in a productive heat with a career top speed figure when switched to grass and dropped to the maiden $50,000 level last time out, the son of Ransom the Moon stretches out for the first time, and if he’s ever going to handle a route of ground it’ll likely be in his first try. The Doug O’Neill barn has solid stats with the sprint-to-route angle, so at 6-1 on the morning line this sophomore colt offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Phosphorescence< has a couple of recent local sprint preps under his belt, lands the rail, and shows the always dangerous blinkers off angle. It wouldn’t be surprising to him on the front end as the controlling speed and be tough to catch in that role. Toss him in somewhere.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Nobe
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Nobe shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern with the favorable inside draw coupled with an improving speed figure pattern, so let’s put her on top in a woefully weak maiden claiming $30,000 main track miler for sophomore fillies. She’s no bargain at or near her morning line of 2-1 but deserves top billing by default. You can use her as a no value rolling exotic single, spread the race and hope for a price, and simply sit it out and await better opportunities later on.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bowl of Cherries; 6-Angelcents; 2-Teen Drama
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in his starter’s allowance five furlong turf dash for fillies and mares hoping to catch a decent middle price. Bowl of Cherries is a two-time winner over the local lawn and always has been effective as a late-running sprinter when properly spotted. She has several back speed figures that make her a solid fit at this level and is reunited with “win rider” Aguilar, so we’re expecting the Los Alamitos-based mare to produce a good late kick at 5-1 on the morning line. Angelcents, likely the quickest of the quick, is dangerous at this shortened trip and will greatly appreciate this class drop from the first level allowance ranks. If she can shake loose early without pressure, the daughter of Goldencents could get brave. The form on Teen Drama strongly suggests she is best as a turf sprinter, so with the route-to-sprint clearly on display the 4-year-old filly by Bayern seems likely to produce significant improvement. Look for her to be rolling from off the pace through the lane.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Shut Up Michael
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Restricted (nw-3) $20,000 sprinters compete over five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the Pick-6 in what looks to be an extremely challenging affair. Best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Worth noting is that all six entrants are listed at 4-1 or lower on the morning line. Shut Up Michael performed poorly in his last two starts up north but drops drastically in class, tries conventional dirt for the first time, and is re-equipped with blinkers for new trainer Jonathan Wong. With several back speed figures good enough to beat this field and a healthy recent work tab, the Irish-bred gelding has a right to snap back following a two month vacation, so he may be worth a bit of a gamble.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Yeng Again; 6-Standing O
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Yeng Again exits the infinitely tougher Clocker’s Corner Stakes taken by Lane Way (runner-up Motorious already has exited the race to win), and after cutting out the fractions and paying the price late the Carpe Diem gelding seems likely to improve at this level and with a patient ride he probably prefers. He was a clever winner over the Hillside Course during the fall meeting and a repeat of that career-top equaling performance today should be good enough. We’ll toss in Standing O on backup ticket while recognizing the likelihood that the come-backing Phil D’Amato-trained gelding might be in the field simply to shake the rust off while prepping for longer. He is, however, a three time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, and actually won a six furlong grass dash on the flat course when last seen nine months ago, so he could be more cranked up than we’re giving him credit for.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Silent Beauty
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares doesn’t offer a whole lot to work with. Silent Beauty is listed as the 9/5 morning line choice based on recent form that make her the logical top pick. In the frame in her last three starts, the Peter Eurton-trained filly was a decent second at this level earlier this meeting in a race that produced a respectable career top speed figure, and if she can duplicate that performance today it should be good enough to land her in the winner’s circle. She began her career with four races on grass (all in straight maiden company) but since being dropped to her proper level and switched to dirt, the daughter of Tale of the Cat has more than paid her bills. In the absence of serious competition, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Australia Mia
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: Australia Mia came up a tad short in her U.S. debut earlier this season when weakening in the final furlong to finish third as the favorite in the Astra Stakes, but that was a tough task in her U.S. debut over 12 furlongs in her first outing since last June. She’ll be fitter and stronger today and much more comfortable shortening up to a mile and one-quarter, her preferred distance. A high quality, multiple stakes winner in Chile, she has a chance to be a major player in the older long distance grass division as she gets acclimated for trainer Michael McCarthy, so with Frankie riding her back and at 3-1 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single in this year’s renewal of the Santa Ana Stakes-G3.

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RACE 8: Post: 3:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-I Got Munny; 2-Good Vibes Only
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Tough race, a rare straight $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses. I Got Munny once would bury this group but has been stale for few races so trainer Mark Glatt takes the opportunity to potentially steal a purse following a non-threatening third behind the talented Spirit of Makena in a fast, highly rated allowance dash last month. The veteran gelding has won from the rail in the past, so if he can work out a decent trip the son of Munnings might be able to regain his winning form. Good Vibes Only is a perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita main track and on that horse-for-course angle alone he’s a major contender. The John Sadler-trained son of Maclean’s Music has been freshened since November, but a strong series of workouts should have him fit and ready. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to I Got Munny.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Chaos Theory; 11-My Summer Dream
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Chaos Theory has more than sufficient back class to extend his winning streak to three in this starter’s allowance turf sprint and it is an encouraging sign that he is being protected today after capturing a pair of recent $25,000 claimers since being haltered by trainer Mike Puype. Outstanding grass jockey Hector Berrios fits him perfectly and will give him the patient ride required. The veteran gelding may be the one to beat but must fear My Summer Dream, the morning line favorite at 2-1. Though unfavorably drawn on the far outside in this five furlong dash, the Bay Area-based gelding should be quick enough to get over and secure a reasonable second flight position and then have his chance to make his presence felt in the final stages. Both should be included in your rolling exotics with preference on top to Chaos Theory.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 08:59 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 12, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 14-race card to begin the week. The co-features roll in Race 6 and Race 11, an Open Handicap Trot plus an Open Handicap Pace both with a $19,000 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

4-Speedy Dominic A (9/2)-Steps up but gets needed post relief. Should be racing on the point or with the leaders throughout.
7-Odds On Osiris (2-1)-Comes off a sharp win versus this kind from the same post and Wrenn is at the controls again. Has won 6 of 8 at Nfld and the race should go through this Burke trainee.

Race 12

2-Kneedeep N Custard (3-1)-Drops to a competitive level and draws well. Myers will probably land on the engine and may make every call a winning one.
3-Captianofrocknroll (5-1)-Stayed inside versus better and closed to cash a 3rd place check. Has the speed to win at a square price as long as Ebersole gets in striking range at the 3/4 pole.

Race 13

1-Pound For Pound (5/2)-Makes the 2nd start off a sick scratch, Merriman returns and draws the rail. Should be racing near the top of the stack and is a main player if 100%.
3-Not Today (3-1)-Drops to a soft spot, Lems will be in the bike, and he knows well. This was an 11-time winner in 2022 and might be overlooked at the windows. Does have 11 wins in 47 Nfld starts and could add to that total tonight with a good trip.

Race 14

6-Seal Sniper (25-1)-Drops to a better level for success and could pop at a big price if Myers provides a sharp steer. Can leave, race near the leaders and take advantage of an efficient trip.
7-Northern Rocks (5-1)-Not feeling the rail horse at 4-1 or Merriman on #2 at 9/5 in the morning line. This 5-year-old is as good or better but has to stay flat. Willing to take a swing for a square price. Davis Jr. steered in last and put in a flat line at the class just above. Risky but can offer some value if not over bet.
9-Dontyousayit (12-1)-Check-getter doesn't like to win, took only 1 picture in 2022 while hitting the board in 16 of 32
(32-1-9-6). Looking for some luck so Sugg can land in a decent early seat. This isn't a group of all-stars, the 6-year-old could trip out and score at a price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,7/2,3/1,3/6,7,9
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:00 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3

#2 Bayou Beauty	She couldn't stay late in that first route try, but she showed some good speed that day and might be able to ration it just a bit better in this second route start. Enough to like at a mid-range price.
#1 Drewsilla	Not much to argue about with the individual running lines that make her an obvious contender right back with this group, but we're getting short on excuses heading into this 15th start with a bunch of underneath shares in recent races. The one to beat -- tough call.
#7 Calling	She ran sort of evenly in that last one, but she'll try two turns on the dirt for the first time here and should be able to find a really good spot right near the top.
Race Summary	Bayou Beauty might try to have another go for it on the front end, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her stick around a lot better today. Capable and patient new rider might be a good fit.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#9 Mystic Creed	She'll need a scratch to get in here, but this is where I want to be if she heads to post. She showed some pace before tiring in the debut with cheaper, and she would be stepping up to try the turf with a perfect attack post for her pace. Solid lean if she goes.
#1 Charmonte	I respect anything coming out of this barn, and this one probably has a little bit of upside with just two starts under her belt last year. Wonder if this trip might be just a touch too sharp for her, though.
#3 Lure'em In	She has had nothing in the tank late in her first two starts, but she'll get over to the turf for the first time here with a pedigree that suggests she might like the new footing.
Race Summary	Mystic Creed has dangerous pace and a perfect draw if she gets a little scratch help to draw in, and I think she'd offer a fair enough price to give her a shot on the rise.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#1 Inspector Ed	He has some decent finishing ability in a race with several potential players to battle early, and I think his style, coupled with the race flow and class drop, will be plenty to land this. Single in the finale for me.
#3 Friend's Do Care	I think he will find enough pace pressure to have to settle underneath today, but there are a couple running lines on his page that would keep him in the mix at a nice number.
#6 Reecemania	Would have liked to see him stay just a bit better when dropping last out, but another step down in class might be enough to allow him to stick around more today.
Race Summary	Inspector Ed should get a decent run here, and he has never tried this soft a crew through five lifetime starts. Not sure he has a ton of upside at this point in time, but his baseline is good enough to make him tough.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:00 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - March 12

Mar. 11, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MALTESE FALCON

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	2	Maltese Falcon	L Dettori
PLACE	4-1	5	Zihuatanejo	K Kimura
SHOW	5-2	1	Phosphorescence	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Precision Strike	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Storm the Night	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Raji	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 NOBE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Nobe	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	5-2	3	Prestigious	D A Herrera
SHOW	6-1	2	Time Together	E A Ellingwood
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Jacqueline Cochran	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Anacarava	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Gila	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #3 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	7	Baby Kristen	R Gonzalez
PLACE	7-2	1	Ready Jet Go	R A Vazquez
SHOW	5-1	5	Bowl of Cherries	A Aguilar
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Teen Drama	K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	6	Angelcents	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Majestic Gigi	M Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #4 $18,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:59 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Mitico	J Valdivia Jr.
PLACE	5-2	5	Butkus	T J Pereira
SHOW	9-5	2	Sawasdee	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Sonic Brees	A Cedillo

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Shut Up Michael	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Stir the Pot	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #5 $75,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 4:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	6	Standing O	F Prat
PLACE	7-2	5	Yeng Again	U Rispoli
SHOW	6-1	1	One Silk Stocking	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Mecklenburg	R Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Highland Ghost	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Vantastic	L Dettori

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #6 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:59 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	3	Spoiled Rotten	A Aguilar
PLACE	5-2	5	Big Bell	J J Hernandez
SHOW	9-5	4	Silent Beauty	D Van Dyke
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Naughty Evelyn	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Spanish Channel	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Shemakescents	L Contreras

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	9	Ballet Dancing	F Prat
PLACE	3-1	3	Australia Mia	L Dettori
SHOW	4-1	5	Duvet Day	K Kimura
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Annaghlasa	R A Vazquez

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	2	Queen Ofthe Temple	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Harpers Gallop	J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #8 $45,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:59 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Good Vibes Only	F Prat
PLACE	2-1	1	I Got No Munny	G Franco
SHOW	5-1	5	Clampett	L Dettori
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Sunrise Journey	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Joker Boy	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Took Charge	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #9 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:29 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 MY SUMMER DREAM

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	11	My Summer Dream	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-1	7	See Through It	B Pena
SHOW	5-2	8	Chaos Theory	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Teton Valley	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Inch	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Maven	L Dettori

* EXACTA: 11-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/11 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:01 AM

Oaklwan Park Tip Sheet - March 12

Mar. 11, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 LAMUTANAATTY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-1	2	Lamutanaatty	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	5	Schmooze	D Cabrera
SHOW	7-2	3	Ottoman Empire	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Salta	R Bowen

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Smooth Scat	E Fuentes
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Afraidofthebunny	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:07 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	5	Stand Proud	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	9-5	8	Lil Bro Coop	N Juarez
SHOW	5-1	6	Majestic Flag	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Asset Basis	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Magnificus	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Vigano	K Harr

* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

RACE #3 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-5	1	Fast Lane	I Castillo
PLACE	9-2	4	Hacker	K R Jordan
SHOW	15-1	2	Heart Headed Arky	A Pusac
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Pikachu	E Medellin

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Falconite	C Bailey
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	The Steelman	E Fuentes

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #4 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	15-1	8	Miri a Coincidence	T Wales
PLACE	8-5	6	My Noah	C A Torres
SHOW	4-1	2	Lord M	D Cabrera
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Talk to Tokey	R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Golden Luna	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	1	Mark the Moose	A Pusac

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

RACE #5 $7,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:47 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 PERIPATETIC

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	9	Peripatetic	D Cabrera
PLACE	5-2	10	Krusin Rocket	W De La Cruz
SHOW	3-1	4	Ridgepoint Road	C A Torres
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Colonel Barton	H Leahey

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Flashy Boy Goes	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Work All Day	J K Court

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX

RACE #6 $50,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	8	Slim Man	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	2	Conspiracy Fact	N Juarez
SHOW	10-1	9	Jolly Tommy	W De La Cruz
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Texas Red Hot	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1	Recker Point	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Red Run	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX

RACE #7 $50,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 JACKMAN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	3	Jackman	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	6	Dark Timber	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	3-1	8	Devils Tower	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Cold as Hell	D Cabrera

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	American Pure	E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Ultimate	K R Jordan

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX

RACE #8 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	1	Ice Orchid	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	5-1	6	Coastal Charm	T Baze
SHOW	2-1	3	Shotgun Hottie	C A Torres
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Queens Up	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Bow Bow Girl	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Lisette	M Garcia

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #9 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	9	Goin to the Show	T Baze
PLACE	9-2	3	Cyclone	R Bowen
SHOW	2-1	6	Haskelled	C A Torres
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Manta Rey	W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	12	Kupp	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Swaggish	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/9 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:02 AM

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - March 12

Mar. 11, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $15,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 WHY BEHAVE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Why Behave	D L Parker
PLACE	9-2	2	Firingtothefront	E Morales
SHOW	4-1	4	Champagne Affair	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Melody Rose	J L Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Summerjustbet Her	E Nieves
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Atomic Rose	R R Singh

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #2 $22,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	2	Varsity Flygirl	T L Pompell
PLACE	2-1	6	Whats Up Sweets	R Gutierrez
SHOW	2-1	4	Diannas Jet	E J Barrera
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Cave Creek	T S Albert

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Broke Financing	B Culp
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Fasted	A Castillo

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 DREWSILLA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Drewsilla	E Nieves
PLACE	9-2	3	Entitlement	M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW	4-1	7	Calling	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Queen of the Moon	E J Barrera

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Strawberry Sundae	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Bayou Beauty	C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #4 $53,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	4	Blue Cheese	C J Lanerie
PLACE	4-1	7	Cosmic Train	J Graham
SHOW	5-2	1	Venn	C J Hernandez
WILD CARD	9-2	3	Pacificislandtime	J L Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Woods N Water	T L Pompell
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Mageez	A Green

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #5 $15,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MAEMAEMAY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	4	Maemaemay	B Culp
PLACE	6-1	3	Cajun Ninja	D L Parker
SHOW	12-1	7	Wheres the Pumps	D Cohen
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Taken It	E Nieves

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Custom Candy	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1	Mardi Gras Alarm	C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #6 $30,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	6	Soft Pants	J Graham
PLACE	4-1	3	Counterspy	A Beschizza
SHOW	6-1	2	Big Beemster	A Castillo
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Fight Fiercely	C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Gluckstadt	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Klimtomaniac	A Green

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	7	Parker Eva	T S Albert
PLACE	3-1	1	Charmonte	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	4-1	9	Mystic Creed	J L Rodriguez
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Most Empressive	R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	16	Angora Deb	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Lynna	B Culp

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX

RACE #8 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Inspector Ed	A Green
PLACE	3-1	6	Reecemania	J Stokes
SHOW	8-1	8	Royal Unlimited	J L Rodriguez
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Hard Kings	A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Friends Do Care	B Culp
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Iron Fortune	E M Murray

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:02 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - March 12

Mar. 11, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3^rd race [NY, Biogio’s Rose, 1 mi] – (5) Captainsdaughter (B) got far behind in the early going and while racing nine-wide made a late rally to finish fourth. (2) Know It All Audrey is stakes placed against NY-breds and is projected to set the pace. All five of her career victories were at Aqueduct. (3) Timeless Journey won two of her last three starts in allowances against open company. (1) Mia Bea Star has top three finishes in her last eight races against open company and state-breds.
6^th race [Md 20000, 1 mi] – (8) Stormandy (A) twice battled for the lead, got in front, and was beaten by only a head. (3) Steady Progress (C) was bet down from 8-1 to 5-1, finished third behind the top choice, and now the blinkers come off. (5) There Be Dragons made three starts in maiden special weights with a second and a third. He drops into a claimer for the first time for Todd Pletcher, which is a winning move for the barn. (6) Old Point rallied from tenth to second in his second start following a layoff with a big jump in speed figures.
8^th race [OC50k/SAL50k, 1 mi] – (8) Pebble Lane (B) got bumped six wide and finished second earning her career best speed figure in her first start for a new trainer. (6) Frigid Lady broke her maiden for a $150,000 tag at Keeneland in October and since then has competed consistently at this $50,000 level. She ships up from Kentucky for Mike Maker. (4) Hypnocurrency broke her maiden for $40,000 last start with a pace pressing trip. (1) Maggie T was claimed for $50,000 last month by Linda Rice and she wins with 26% of the horses making their first start off the claim.
9^th race [NY, Md 40000, 6F] – (10) Pauciloquent (D) was bet down from 8-1 to 5-1 for her debut in which she finished fourth. (5) Laochi set the pace and finished third in a maiden special weight in her first start after a claim by Linda Rice and now drops back into the claiming ranks. (1) Queens Over Threes exits a maiden special weight to move back to the $40,000 tag where two races back she set the pace and missed the win by a neck. (9) Forever Amy gets a rider change to Trevor McCarthy, moves up a notch after a second-place finish, and gets Lasix for the first time.
Best bets: Captainsdaughter (3^rd); Pebble Lane (8^th). Best value: Stormandy (6^th); Pauciloquent (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(5)	Captainsdaughter	B on 2/25	3	Got far behind, raced nine-wide, and rallied late to fourth.
(3)	Steady Progress	C on 2/17	6	Took some late money and finished third.
(8)	Stormandy	A on 2/17	6	Twice battled for the lead and got beat by a head.
(8)	Pebble Lane	B on 2/2	8	Got bumped six wide and was clear for second.
(10)	Pauciloquent	D on 1/12	9	Bet down in debut and rallied wide to get fourth.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:02 AM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 12

Mar. 11, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (7) Kartano staged a nice rally to win his last start and can make it two in a row here. (4) Wicked Genius takes a big class drop and adds Irad. Looks like the top rival. (8) El Socio won his last but faces tougher company here. (1) Dubby Dubbie is worth a look off the Breen claim. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-7-8.
3rd race – (7) A La Carte (A) was second in his debut and it was a long way back to the third horse. Should graduate today. (4) Last Shift could be a factor in his debut. (3) Lupo’s Legacy gets Irad and is worth a long look. (6) Mr. Peeks has sharp early speed and may hang around until the end. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7. Exactas: 4-7 over 3-6 and 3-6 over 4-7.
5th race – (3) Fearless Soldier was fourth on Tapeta in his debut and should make a smooth transition to turf. (1) My Spirit flopped in his debut on dirt and may fare better on turf. (10) Gipsy Chief has a strong late kick and will be a factor in the final furlong. (6) Harry Hood is a firster from Brown who deserves attention. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-10.
7th race – (1) Uncle B has speed from the rail and could be tough to catch. (2) Forest Survivor gets Saez and might turn in a better effort. (6) Charmed won his last try on Tapeta and fits in nicely here. (5) Souper Success should be part of the early pace and may hang around to the end. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6. Doubles: 1-2-5-6 with 3-4-8-10.
8th race – (3) Erna was a game fourth in a stakes and should appreciate the class relief here. (8) Tituba has an interesting pedigree for turf. (4) Tall Girl settled for second at Tampa and cannot be overlooked here. (10) Silver Stripes won her debut and seems ready to take on winners. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-8-10.

No.	Name	Letter/Last race		Today’s race	Comment
(7)	A La Carte		A, 2/3	3 GP	Was a solid second in his debut

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:03 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Late Double Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 68 • Purse: $8,900 • Post: 8:33P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TEMPTING FLY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. ALFONSO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	TEMPTING FLY	8/5	7/2
1	ALFONSO	3/1	5/1
3	TEMPTING COURAGE	9/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ALFONSO	1	3/1	Average	72	59	5.3	0.0	0.0
2	RUN DAPISAURUS RUN	2	7/2	Average	58	52	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	TEMPTING COURAGE	3	9/2	Average	70	54	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	WORLD SEEKER	4	8/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	KING LUKE	5	8/1	Average/Trouble-prone	68	52	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	TEMPTING FLY	6	8/5	Fast	68	65	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:04 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 4	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 79 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 2:08P
FOR STATE BRED FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. SHERLYN GO GO is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HOAX: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHE RLYN GO GO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HIHELLOHOWAREYOU: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ratin g. KITTY QUICK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
2	HOAX	5/2	6/1
1	SHERLYN GO GO	2/1	6/1
6	HIHELLOHOWAREYOU	7/2	7/1
3	KITTY QUICK	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	HOAX	2	5/2	Front-runner	79	79	69.4	69.4	62.4
7	SHE'S A JOY	7	12/1	Front-runner	71	70	36.0	63.5	52.0
6	HIHELLOHOWAREYOU	6	7/2	Stalker	76	68	64.9	64.9	60.9
3	KITTY QUICK	3	9/2	Stalker	81	75	50.2	69.2	63.7
1	SHERLYN GO GO	1	2/1	Trailer	76	75	69.6	61.2	54.2
5	ESOTERIC	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	62	60.2	60.2	53.2
4	SHEA D SECRET	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	57	42.7	50.1	36.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:04 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8100 Class Rating: 40

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 27 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SHAKIN SONG 8/5
# 6 MYSTERE C 2/1
# 2 BELLA LARGO 7/2

SHAKIN SONG looks very good to best this field. This filly has posted some nice finish positions in her last few starts. Should be considered a definite contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. I expect a decent performance from this racer whose trainer has one of the best ROI percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. MYSTERE C - She looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. BELLA LARGO - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Betancourt running at this distance are the strongest in this group. She looks very strong in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Hour Wagers - Race #3 - Post: 4:29pm - Starter Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 103

Rating:

#7 SEE THROUGH IT (ML=5/1)
#11 MY SUMMER DREAM (ML=2/1)
#1 INCH (ML=12/1)
#3 TETON VALLEY (ML=15/1)

SEE THROUGH IT - You'll be making money left and right by turning your gambling cash onto this jockey/trainer combination. MY SUMMER DREAM - This gelding should be in fine condition, this far into his form cycle. Owns the highest Equibase speed figure on the turf at this distance. Hernandez knows this horse pretty well. Strong win percentage of 60 when horse and jockey are put together. INCH - Mullins is great in turf sprints. This equine should have no allowances if he doesn't win. TETON VALLEY - Knapp has this horse placed in the right event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CHAOS THEORY (ML=5/2), #2 MAVEN (ML=6/1), #5 DUTTON (ML=8/1),

CHAOS THEORY - Doesn't appear to be in a satisfactory spot today. MAVEN - Improbable that this equine will finish better than he did last time when finishing fourth. 6/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 5 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance contest recently. DUTTON - Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a sprint contest to be worth the risk at modest odds in a sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 SEE THROUGH IT to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:05 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $20500 Class Rating: 91

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LEA RO 5/2
# 6 LULLABY LAND 2/1
# 2 ONE NIGHT STAND 8/1

I think LEA RO is a decent choice. A solid 87 avg class fig may give this mare a distinct class edge against this group. With a strong 79 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Camacho ought to have this mare in excellent position to win the contest. LULLABY LAND - Wilson has this mare running well and is a strong selection based on the solid Equibase Speed Figs put up in route races lately. Should be considered - I like the figs from the last race. ONE NIGHT STAND - Looks very good to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Has been travelling strongly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2023, 09:05 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 3:24pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#2 TOM'S LAST GENERAL (ML=6/1)
#5 ELI'S PROMISE (ML=8/5)
#4 THE LAST FACT (ML=5/2)

TOM'S LAST GENERAL - I expect this mount to shock some fans this time. ELI'S PROMISE - Gelding has shown some early speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Trainer DiVito moves this horse to a lower class level to face a weaker class today. Look for a sharp performance given this drop. Ranked at the top in earnings per start. Another indicator that this horse has class. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track in the last race. On a fast track, has a chance right here. THE LAST FACT - I have to believe that this contest's shorter trip should help this gelding. Just check out his last speed rating, 74. That one fits in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 K C'S FIRST B M W (ML=7/2),

K C'S FIRST B M W - 7/2 is not offering enough value for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint race lately. This gelding earned a rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 TOM'S LAST GENERAL is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None