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PointSpread
NCAAB
Friday, March 17, 2023 - 21:45
Pinnacle———Montana St
I have no doubts that this Kansas State team is legit and will put forth a solid showing. The problem is that the Kansas St Wildcats have been statistically and significantly worse on the road or at least away from home this season and even on a neutral floor, I don’t think it’ll help here. Montana State is no joke as they have great guard play and at times, K-State can be a bit too reliant on the likes of Nowell and Johnson. I think this is a potential upset spot because of the guard play required in this tournament. Additionally, and so important but obscure, is that Montana St made fewer than 14 free throws just once in 2023, and Kansas State fouls a whole bunch. That’s how underdogs upset begin. They get to hang around just long enough. The Wildcats have a turnover problem, they don't really have the defensive inside presence to totally shut down what Montana St brings. Kansas State is overvalued because of its home success. The team sees the seventh biggest drop-off when it leaves the “Little Apple” of Manhattan, Kansas and that certainly affects the oddsmakers overvaluing their point spread value. Defense is key for our win here. K-State has been one of the sloppiest teams in college basketball with Markquis Nowell leading the country in turnovers. Montana State has a size advantage at multiple positions on the court and in the event they can capitalize on the Wildcats turnovers, beat them on the offensive boards, and slow down Johnson and Nowell, Montana State has a real chance to not only cover but to win this game outright.
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