Raphael Esparza
4 Unit Play Memphis -2
4 Unit Play Memphis -2
Mar 20 | Teddy Covers | 5% | [NBA] (569) Sacramento Kings at (570) Utah Jazz Time: 9:10 PM EDT |
Utah Jazz +5.0 (-110) |
Analysis: 5% Big Ticket: Take Utah (#570) IMPORTANT NOTE (10 AM Pacific Time): Markkanen now listed as ‘out’ tonight; current line has Utah +6.5. I still like the Jazz here, even without their All Star, with a full 5% wager recommended at +5 or higher (not +4, as I originally wrote below) This is truly a miserable spot for the ‘fat and happy’ Kings: 7-0 in their last seven on the highway as part of their 11-2 SU Run in their last 13 games. The Kings are playing their fourth game in six nights after winning at Chicago, Brooklyn and Washington. Keegan Murray’s quote screams ‘letdown’ to this bettor, especially talking in the past tense, like they’ve accomplished what they wanted to accomplish on this trip: “We knew this was going to be a tough stretch for us. A lot of really good teams we had to play, a lot of wins we had to get.” It's certainly not like the Kings had any real edge against the Jazz in the first two meetings between these two teams, both of which were decided on last second shots – the Kings won the two games by a combined margin of three points. The Kings haven’t won in Utah by more than this pointspread in at least the last five years (I didn’t go back any further). Utah has been an undervalued commodity all season long; Top 5 in profitability this season. Unlike tired, Sacramento, the Jazz have only played one game in the last week – an upset win over Boston; their third win in four games. It’s surely worth noting that the Celtics hit 22 three pointers in that contest, while Utah shot only 43% from the floor – it wasn’t just some random hot shooting night for the home underdog. There’s urgency for Utah, currently tied for the #10 seed in the West. All Star forward Lauri Markkanen: “We want to make the playoffs. That playoff intensity will just help this young team grow.” Head Coach Will Hardy: “Our defensive intensity (has) picked up (following a four game skid).” The situation, the matchups, the series history and this inflated pointspread all point clearly towards the home underdog tonight in a game worthy of a step up sized wager! Big Ticket: Take the Jazz Line Parameter: 5% at +4 or higher, 4% at +3.5 or lower |
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