2-28-09

[Mr. IWS]

ASA's College BB Major Mismatch Game of the Week - 17-5 run!
PLAY ON Western Kentucky + vs. Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8:00 PM EST

This is a mismatch. MTSU simply isn?t a good team right now. We went against them @ Florida International on Thursday and lost, however the Blue Raiders AGAIN were not impressive. They were 3.5 points favorites at FIU and barely covered 71-66. Considering the fact that Middle Tennessee got out to a 15-point lead because the Panthers began the game just 1 for 12 from the field. FIU also made only 41% of their free throws (7 of 17) yet despite those offensive struggles for the home team, it was still a down to the wire game. Last Saturday this team almost lost to Florida Atlantic who is 2-15 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Raiders trailed for much of that game and finally took a lead late in the game and held on for a close win. Their two games previous to that two game Florida stint were both home losses to North Texas and South Alabama. It?s easy to see, this team is not playing well right now and laying points vs. the best team in the conference is ridiculous.

This is a big game for WKY who sits in first place in the Sun Belt East at 14-3. Troy is just one game behind them at 13-4. This is the final regular season game for each team, so a win here locks up first place for the Hilltoppers. While WKY has lost a few games on the road, they?ve shown up big away from home when needed. That includes a 5-3 overall road record in conference games and wins at 14-3 Arkansas Little Rock and 10-7 South Alabama. The Toppers have a huge statistical advantage in this match up. Their points per possession differential is a very good +0.158 while MTSU is just barely above water at 0.022 in conference games. WKY is 2nd in the league in shooting percentage, 3rd in defensive shooting percentage and 1st in rebounding. Compare that to MTSU who is 7th in shooting percentage, 11th in defensive FG percentage and 7th in rebounding.

Western Kentucky is absolutely the better team and they have a lot to play for tonight. They have dominated the series winning 9 of the last 10 outright and that continues on Saturday. The Hilltoppers show up big and get the road win.

Best of Luck, ASA!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#523 - NCAA - 4 units on Southern Mississippi +23
#562 - NCAA - 3 units on Dayton -2.5
#569 - NCAA - 3 units on Georgia State +14.5
#591 - NCAA - 3 units on Auburn +5
#595 - NCAA - 3 units on Arizona +8
#630 - NCAA - 3 units on Creighton -7.5
#684 - NCAA - 3 units on Western Carolina -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

BUDIN
SATURDAY'S PICK
25 DIME



INDIANA STATE



This price is a solid -3 as I received this play and had the site updated at midnight Eastern.



If you have Indiana State -3, I suggest you buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 so you get the win should Indiana State win by three.



In the unlikely case you have Indiana State -3 1/2 - even after shopping around - buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get the push should Indiana State only prevail by three.



At over 1700 dimes of profit over the past two years, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.



Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

ChicagoSportsConnection
***************************************
#548...NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1.5 vs Ball St....3:00 EDT

NORTHERN ILL has a bunch of young kids this year and they have suffered.
But it looks like they are starting to gell...they've won 3 of 4....and won their last 2 games by 15 & 24 points.
They have a 7-5 HOME RECORD.
BALL ST is 3-8 on the road.....6-32 over the last 3 seasons.
....they've lost 5 straight on the road including a loss to TOLEDO (5-23 record) recently.

******************************************
#566...RICE +9 vs Houston................4:00 EDT

RICE is 6-1 ATS in the L7 games.
69-66 @ UCF .......(+13)
66-69 @ SMU ......(+5.5)
58-67 UTEP..........(+7).........didn't cover
88-91 @ EC..........(+7.5)
88-72 S.MISS ......(+6)
65-72@HOUST... (+19)......***
76-70 EC .............(+1)
HOUSTON is 5-6 SU on the road.
.....they haven't won @ Autry Court in their last 6 tries.
.....big game with MEMP on tap.

*******************************************
#690...TENN ST-2.5 vs E.Illinois.................8:45 EDT
(added game / time change)

TENN ST is 5-0 with interim coach Mark Pittman.
.......they are 7-6 @ home.

I was just looking to fade E.ILL as they have lost 5 of their L6 games.
They had an atrocious season last year, but were actually playing some decent ball for a while this year....but they have reverted back to old form of late.
The last four losses were by....
15
16
18
16.
TENN ST has a decent home record and seem to be on a roll with the new coach, so we will fade E.Ill here.

***************************************
NBA
HOUSTON -1 @ Chicago...........................8:35 EDT

HOUS has won 6 straight.
Their L6 opponents have scored....
74 CLEV
94 PORT
78 CHAR
86 DALL
88 NJ
82 SACR
They were off last night while the Bulls lost @ Washington (after a visit to the White House to meet the new president ).
HOUS hasn't played a Back2Back game since 02-03-09... SO THEY ARE RESTED.

THE BULLS MEANWHILE HAVE BEEN VERY BUSY...
They will be playing their 4th in 5....5th in 7....6th in9....7th in 11.
.....with a trip to the White House mixed in of course ( I assumed that was reserved for The NBA Champs).
....they have lost 3 of 4 since aquiring Brad Miller and a few others.

FYI...the total dipped to 196 shortly after opening @ 198.
This due to the Rockets defense..... but I don't really trust the Under since the Bulls may be real tired and they'll give up 110+ points on occasion.

Play on HOUSTON -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Winning Angle Plays for Saturday

NCAA

Play California (+2.5) over UCLA* (Top NCAA Play)

California has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games at home this season. California has also covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games after scoring 80 points or more in the last game.

Play Temple (+3) over Dayton* (Bonus NCAA Play)

Temple has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 games when the line is between +3 to -3. Temple has covered the spread in 22 of the last 30 games when playing conference opponents.


Play LSU (+4.5) over Kentucky (Bonus NCAA Play)

LSU has won 12 of the last 13 conference games and they have also won 10 of the last 12 games coming off an OVER the total. LSU has won 16 of the last 19 games when playing their 2nd game in a week.


NBA Hoops
Play New York (+5.5) over Miami (NBA Top Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Matt Farrgo

Utah @ Brigham Young
PICK: Brigham Young

This is a big spot for BYU as heading into this week, it trails first place Utah by two games with only two remaining following this one. If the Cougars can win out, they are still in the running for the MWC regular season championship but will definitely need some help along the way. The rest of their schedule is fairly easy while the Utes are coming off a tough home with over UNLV on Wednesday and then have to go to New Mexico three days after this one that could potentially decide the regular season title. This two-game deficit can be mostly blamed on one game and that was a loss in Utah that came in overtime back no January 27th. That was the first loss in the last five meetings against the hated rival and BYU will be out for some payback. The Cougars had every chance to win that game as they shot 50.8 percent from the field, but were outscored 31-13 at the free-throw line. That is some definite home cooking that took place and BYU will most likely be getting those calls on its home floor. The Cougars have been outshot at the free throw line on the road by 44 attempts while outshooting foes by 20 attempts at home. After losing home games against Wake Forest and UNLV, the first snapping a 52-game home court winning streak, the Cougars have won four straight at home with the last three coming by an average of 23 ppg. Despite the two losses, this is still the most feared venue in the conference for opponents. We all know that this is a huge rivalry in football but the basketball version is just as fierce and the Cougars desperately want some revenge. A loss here would not only eliminate them from the regular season title but it would also put a damper on a possible third straight at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Utah has been a very good team on the road this season but its four road wins within the conference came at Air Force, TCU, Wyoming and Colorado St., who happen to be the four worse teams in the Mountain West with a combined record of 14-38. To no surprise, the two road losses came against UNLV and San Diego St., in the top half of the conference with BYU and those two setbacks came by 10 and nine points. Through games of February 22, BYU ranked first in the nation in field-goal percentage at 50.6 percent. UCLA, which is at 50.3 percent, is the only other team shooting better than 50 percent. Overall, the Cougars have a +13.6 edge in efficiency numbers. Utah normally has a clear edge inside but that is not the case here as the Utes are +5.4 rpg in margin while BYU is +4.2 rpg in margin so the difference is minimal. A variance that is not minimal comes in the ever important assist/turnover ratio category. The Cougars have a healthy ratio of 1.46 while Utah is at 1.02 which is barely above breakeven and pretty unimpressive if you ask me. BYU is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games against teams that slow the pace, averaging 53 or fewer shots per game. The Cougars are also 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games coming off a double-digit win in the conference and they are 11-3 ATS coming off a road conference win over the last three years. Look for BYU to dominate once again on its home floor and avenge that earlier loss to the Utes in a big way. 3* BYU Cougars

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Matt Farrgo

New Mexico at Colorado State
Prediction: New Mexico

This is a rather big line but there is a lot on the line for the Lobos. A win here and a loss by Utah at BYU, which is more than possible, sets up a chance for New Mexico to grab a share of the MVC Championship as it hosts Utah on Tuesday. The Lobos will likely know what the Utes did since their game starts four hours before the game at Colorado St. A Utah loss will provide a lot more motivation for the Lobos but even if Utah does win, it is not over as each team still has one remaining game following their Tuesday matchup. This is the second meeting this season between New Mexico and Colorado St. and the Lobos easily won that first matchup by 18 points. That does set up a revenge spot for the Rams however, sometimes revenge is not enough as teams simply have huge advantages over other teams. That is the case with New Mexico who has won the last four meetings including three straight dating back to the start of last season by 30, 19 and 18 points. Going back further, the Lobos have won 24 of the last 27 meetings. In that first matchup this season, the Lobos scored 25 points off 20 turnovers by Colorado St. and that is no aberration. New Mexico is just 4-6 on the road this season but it has played better than that record indicates. All four of New Mexico?s conference losses have come on the road, by a combined margin of just 19 points (4.8 ppg). Colorado St. has not posted a much better record at home as it is just 6-7. There is only one quality win of the bunch and that was a two-point victory over UNLV back in January. The other three conference wins came against 5-9 TCU and 0-13 Air Force twice. The Rams are coming off a tough loss at home against bitter rival Wyoming so even though it is senior night, this game will be a tough one to get up for. That loss virtually locked up the requirement to play in the MWC Tournament play-in game which it was trying to avoid. A win here really does nothing now unless a lot of things fall into place. Well, yeah, I'm mad, said usually unflappable Colorado St. head coach Tim Miles. This won't go away soon. It's winnable. It's Wyoming. It's the play-in game. It's a lot of stuff I think that tells the story of how big that game really was for the Rams and how much they missed out on a good opportunity. New Mexico is one of the more athletic teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Lobos want to force an up-tempo pace, and their full-court defense is capable of disrupting everyone as it did in the first meeting against Colorado St. On the season, the Lobos are allowing a 0.88 assist/turnover ratio while the Rams have a ratio on offense of just 0.82. Those numbers tend to change in road and home situations and that is the case here but not much. The New Mexico defensive ratio goes to 0.99 in its road games which is still extremely solid considering it is under the breakeven point. As for the Rams, their offensive ratio actually drops at home to 0.75 so there will not be an advantage of the venue switch for this one. Another huge advantage is the efficiency comparisons. The Lobos are +7.9 in offensive efficiency, which is extremely solid as anything more than a +5 advantage is really big. In overall efficiency, which takes into account many other factors including defense, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding on both ends, New Mexico is +15.9. To put that into context, of the 91 games on Saturday, there are only 15 games where a team has a higher advantage in efficiency and those games have some pretty hefty spreads. This one is very doable considering that the two road conference wins by New Mexico both came by more than this number. 5* New Mexico Lobos

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Florida State (+1.5) over Clemson (NCAA Power Play)

Florida State
• 9-2 ATS when the line is between +3 to -3
• 11-3 ATS after having won 2 of the last 3 games
• 8-3 SU vs. Clemson at home

10* Take New York (+5.5) over Miami (NBA Power Play)

Miami
• 11-24 ATS vs. New York at home
• 11-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons

Bonus Pays
5* Take Iowa State (+10) over Texas A&M (NCAA)
5* Take Ohio State (+10) over Purdue (NCAA)
5* Take Ottawa (-150) over Toronto (NHL)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Dallas Stars -140

Game 2 - Leafs/Sens over 6

Game 3 - Sabres/Islanders over 5.5

Game 4 - Phoenix Coyotes -115

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 28, 2009
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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

John Ryan

Game: Clemson at Florida State Feb 28 2009 2:00PM
Prediction: Clemson

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Clemson over FSU slated to start at 2:00 EST. First, I have had a rough week in the College ranks and to admit that poor performance and to also make amends for those mistakes I have put together the most incredible card of my career. It includes THREE 10* Titan plays and FIVE 5* Monster plays. The 5* Monster plays are on the house and you only when the 10* net you a profit and I promise they will. FSU show very hot from the behind the arc in their last game and that sets them in a poor role for this critical game. FSU is just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997. Clemson is a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. FSU shot hot from the 3-point arc, but were just 39% for the game. That game was a loss to BC 72-67 putting them into a must win out condition to get into the Tournament. Clemson, based on my research and statistic PR ratings, may be the most under rated team in the ACC. They too need this game to gain a strong seeding for the ACC Tournament. Clemson is ?IN?, but I do not see any let down here in Tallahassee. Clemson has significant advantages in nearly all facets of this game and I would not be surprised to see this a double digit Tiger win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Bob Balfe
02/28/2009

NBA Basketball
Bulls +1 over Rockets

NCAA Basketball
Iowa +6.5 over Northwestern
Alabama +6.5 over Mississippi

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Michael Cannon Saturday's Plays...
30 Dime –

EAST CAROLINA

10 Dime –

ROCKETS

5 Dime -

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

I will be back by 11:00 am eastern with my analysis.



Sports Gambling Hotline CHARLOTTE SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3? on Wake Forest minus the points. Bonus 2?s on Dayton minus the points, and a 2? on Duke minus the points.



MIAMI SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3? on Vanderbilt as a small favorite. Bonus 2?s on Gonzaga minus the points, and a NBA 2? on Chicago at a near pick at home.



Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 35 Dime Arizona State
15 Dime Villanova


Arizona State at Washington State
ARIZONA STATE - After dropping a couple of games SU and ATS back-to-back last month, the Arizona State Sun Devils have been on a tear as of late.

Arizona State has covered in five of its last six games, going 5-1 SU in that stretch, and has covered in five straight games on the road, going 4-1 SU in that stretch.

Tonight, the Sun Devils will continue their winning ways and get over on Pac-10 rival Washington State.

Depending on where you go ASU is installed as about a 1-point favorite and will blow right past that as they battle a Cougars team that’s covered in only three of 12 home games this season. For the year, Washington State is only 3-5 ATS at home against the Pac-10.

ASU, on the other hand, is on a five-game ATS road winning streak and has covered in five of its last six against the Pac-10, beating its opponents, on average, 65.6-59.3.

The Sun Devils will keep up its winning trends on the road and against the Pac-10 with an easy win over the Cougars tonight. Take ASU on the road in this one.



Georgetown at Villanova
VILLANOVA - When you think of Big East basketball, it’s not out of the ordinary to think of teams like UConn, Louisville and Pittsburgh.

But almost quietly, the Villanova Wildcats are making a push in the grinder of a conference that is the Big East. Villanova is only 2 1/2 games behind Connecticut and is sitting at 11-4 SU this season conference action.

’Nova has covered in nine of its last 12 games against the Big East and will cover one more time today against visiting Georgetown, which is only 8-20 ATS its last 28 in conference action.

Coming into this game the Wildcats have covered in five of their last six home games and have been especially strong on Saturdays, covering in six of their last seven games in Saturday.

Now they battle a Georgetown team that that has struggled mightily this season, going only 7-14-1 ATS this year, including only two covers in their last 15 games overall.

On the road the Hoyas have been equally as bad, covering only once in seven games away from home.

Against these Wildcats, Georgetown has not had much more luck, going only 4-9 ATS its last 13 games against Villanova.

The Wildcats will continue their dominance against Georgetown and get over easily today. Take Villanova at home in this Big East showdown

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON....20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE....10 DIMER - ALABAMA 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - 3PM

Washington gutted out an overtime win on Thursday over Arizona State, but they did fail to cover the impost. I don't think we will be seeing overtime today, as reality looks like it has settled in with Arizona - they Wildcats are good, but their 16-point loss at Wash State was the loss # 2 in a row, # 3 is most defitnitely on the horizon today!

This is a revenge spot for the Huskies who allowed 69-points in the second half of their 97-106 loss at Tuscon at the end of January. The host has now won and covered the last 4 series meetings.

U-Dub is a solid 15-1 straight up at home, and 9-5 against the spread in their lined home dates.

Arizona has struggled away from home at just 5-6 against the spread, and they will stuggle here today.

Lay it, as this one turns into a rout!

20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - 6PM

Looks tempting to back the Longhorns in this one, as Texas has won 6 straight in this series, including a 99-74 romp at home just over 2 weeks ago.

Since that loss, Oklahoma State has won and covered 4 in a row to move to 18-9 on the year. A win today would go a long way on the Cowboys Big Dance resume.

Oklahoma State is a solid 12-2 straight up at home, and it is just not easy to win in Stillwater for anyone.

You can expect the home crowd to be rocking today, and you can also expect the Cowboys to take down the Longhorns, and stop a 6 game series slide.

G-Man taking the Pokes.

10 DIMER - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - 4PM

Both schools stand at 15-12 this year, and while Ole Miss has been murder at home - 13-2 straight up, 8-3 against the spread - I have a feeling this game is going down to the wire.

The Tide did eek out the 76-73 home win over the Rebels on January 21st, as Alabama is now 4-2 straight up the last 6 series meetings.

Ole Miss is off a second half collapse at Auburn, and I believe that loss will have a lingering effect today. It may not linger the full 40 minutes, but expect it to be present early on, and for Alabama to take advantage plus the points.

Roll Tide!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-28-09

Jeff Benton Saturday's College Hoops winners ... 30 Dime: NOTRE DAME (plus the points vs. UConn)

10 Dime: ARIZONA (plus the points vs. Washington)

5 Dime: FLORIDA STATE (plus the points vs. Clemson)


Notre Dame

Without question, Notre Dame has to go down as one of the most disappointing teams in college hoops this season, right along side Big East rival Georgetown and Tennessee from the SEC. And without question, UConn is one of the Top 5 teams in the country and a legitimate national championship contender. All that said, this line is seriously inflated, and it’s inflated for a few reasons.

First and foremost is the fact that Notre Dame is coming off a shaky five-point home win over Rutgers, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite, making the Irish 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games, 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-11 ATS in Big East play. However, Notre Dame is playing much better lately, winning four of their last five games, including a 33-point home blowout of Louisville and a 19-point romp last Saturday at Providence – the same Providence that just upset top-ranked Pitt at home on Wednesday.

Another reason this line is inflated is because Georgetown is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season, a 93-82 win at No. 8 Marquette, which had previously been unbeaten at home. However, prior to that contest, the Huskies had failed to cover a pointspread in three straight games overall and four of five. In fact, UConn is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and 3-5 ATS when hosting Big East foes this season. Going back to before the start of conference play, UConn has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 at home. Not only that, but check out UConn’s pointspread record as a big favorite: 3-7 ATS when laying double digits.

Lastly, this number is jacked up because UConn wemt to South Bent a month ago and took out the Irish 69-61 as a two-point road favorite. However, the Huskies had Jerome Dyson that day, and he went off for 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals in 35 minutes of action. As we know, Dyson is done for the season with a knee injury, so that’s a big advantage that the Irish don’t have to deal with him today.

Notre Dame has not won at Connecticut in years, but the Irish have been competitive there recently. They lost by six points last year, by one point in overtime in 2006, by 14 in 2005 and 11 in 2004. If you apply this pointspread today to any of those previous four games, well, Notre Dame would’ve gone 3-1 ATS.

Bottom line: I don’t expect Notre Dame to win, but the team has shown life lately and I do believe we’ll get the Irish’s best effort. And given how UConn has really struggled to cover these big numbers at home – and given that the Huskies are shooting just 66 percent from the foul line in their last five games and had been held under 70 points in six straight games before Wednesday – gimme the value with the quality underdog.


Arizona

The Arizona Wildcats have definitely struggled on the road in Pac-10 play, with only two victories, both against the league’s weakest teams (Oregon and Oregon State). And they were dreadful in the second half on Thursday at Washington State, turning a 29-26 halftime lead into a 69-53 loss after getting outscored 43-24 in the final 20 minutes. Prior to that effort, though, the Wildcats had been playing outstanding basketball. They won seven straight games from Jan. 24-Feb. 14 – including a 106-97 rout of Washington as a one-point home underdog – before losing a buzzer-beater at archrival Arizona State on Sunday, falling 70-68 as an eight-point underdog.

In fact, before losing at Wazu, Arizona had cashed in seven of eight games, including three straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately. The Huskies needed overtime to beat Arizona State at home Thursday (73-70), the same Arizona State that barely held off Arizona at home on Sunday, and last weekend Washington fell apart in the second half against UCLA (85-76 loss) and needed a big surge in the final five minutes to get past USC (60-51).

But this play more or less comes down to the matchup, as both of these teams like to run up and down the floor, as evidenced by the 106-97 shootout in Tucson a month ago. In fact, all four of Washington’s conference losses this season have come against opponents – Arizona, UCLA and Cal (twice) – that love the up-tempo pace that the Huskies play. And I believe with pure scorers like Chase Budinger (17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds per game) and stud forward Jordan Hill (17.9 points, 11 rebounds per game), the Wildcats will keep pace with Washington all day today.

In fact, just look how Arizona has been shooting the ball of late, averaging 75 ppg on 49 percent shooting in the last five games, including a blistering 38.4 percent from beyond the arc. By comparison, Washington is averaging a few more points than Arizona in its last five (78.2 ppg), but shooting 45.8 ppg including a woeful 31 percent on three-pointers.

The Huskies are just 3-4 ATS in Pac-10 home games this season, with two of the covers coming against Oregon and Oregon State. Meanwhile, Arizona has cashed in four of five games as an underdog of five points or more, and the Wildcats are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, scoring 96, 84, 84 and 106 points in the four victories! Grab the big points, and don’t be surprised by an outright upset.


Florida State

I am totally and completely baffled by this pointspread. You’ve got two teams with identical 8-5 conference records and near-identical overall records (Clemson is 22-5; Florida State is 21-7). You’ve got Clemson coming off an 80-77 home loss to Virginia Tech as a 10-point favorite, one that’s split its last six games both SU and ATS. On the other hand, you’ve got the Seminoles coming off a close 72-67 road loss at Boston College, but they’re still 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 8-3-1 ATS in conference play.

Plus, Florida State has won three straight home games and is 4-2 in ACC home games, with the only losses coming against North Carolina (80-77) and Duke (66-58), two teams that are quite superior to Clemson. And on top of all that is this beauty: Earlier this month, Florida State went to Death Valley … and beat the Tigers 65-61 outright as a nine-point underdog!

So how in the hell can Clemson, which is just 3-2 SU and ATS in ACC road games, be favored in this contest today? Perhaps it’s a big fat trap, and if it is, then I’m a big fat sucker. But I just don’t see it. After all, Clemson’s defense has sprung a leak lately, giving up 75.8 points per game in the last five outings on 46.8 percent shooting overall and 47.3 percent from three-point range. And on the road, the Tigers give up 79.3 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting, quite a difference from what the Seminoles do defensively at home (62.1 ppg allowed on 37.3 percent shooting).

In fact, look at the point totals Clemson has allowed in its five ACC roadies (73 to Georgia Tech; 85 to lowly Virginia; 77 to Boston College; 82 to Virginia Tech and 94 to North Carolina). All five of those opponents shot 48 percent from the field or better, with four eclipsing 50 percent! Throw in the fact that the Seminoles are on a plethora of pointspread streaks (18-8-2 overall, 20-6-1 as an underdog, 6-0-1 after an ATS loss, 12-4-2 in ACC play), and I’ll jump all over the undervalued home team in this one.