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Game: (661) Wisconsin at (662) North Texas
Date/Time: Mar 28 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Wisconsin +1.5 (-110)
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Play on Wisconsin +1.5 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)
I was trying to hold out for +2 here, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening, so I’ll lock in the +1.5 with a Wisconsin team that should be favored. It looks like North Texas will be without Abou Ousmane again, and I simply can’t make Mean Green a favorite without him here. North Texas managed to get by Oklahoma State without him, but this is a guy that averages 10.9 points per game on a team that doesn’t score a ton AND leads the Mean Green in rebounding, so I think his absence will be felt against a Big Ten team accustomed to elite competition. Wisconsin didn’t have a good season TO WISCONSIN STANDARDS, but because of that, I think the Badgers have been undervalued in this competition. By no means was this a great Wisconsin team? I also didn’t like this team during the regular season, but the NIT has been a step down in class from the Big Ten, and the Badgers have given an effort and thrived in this tournament. Wisconsin has non-conference wins over Marquette, USC, Stanford, and Dayton; the Badgers lost to Kansas by one and Wake Forest by three and were basically a .500 team in a strong Big Ten Conference. Wisconsin has defeated three very good teams in Bradley, Liberty, and Oregon so far in the NIT, and the most notable thing I’m taking from the three wins is how much better the Wisconsin offense has looked of late. Wisconsin is a Top 25 defensive team nationally; it’s their offense that has dragged them down this season, but 81 against Bradley and 75 against Liberty suggest the Badgers can score points on “lesser” teams. North Texas, as good as they were this season, is a lesser team without Ousmane, and I think we have a WTF “wrong team favored” situation on a neutral floor here.
North Texas relies on efficiency to win games at both ends of the floor, and that’s where no Ousmane really hurts the Mean Green in this matchup. North Texas plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, Wisconsin enjoys the slow pace as well, so the total here is an insanely low 115.5, meaning whoever is getting the most out of their possessions is going to win this game. The Ousmane absence is going to be felt more on the defensive end as he’s one of North Texas' top post defenders and leads the Mean Green in blocks and rebounding. Wisconsin does most of their scoring through the post, so missing a top-post defender is a HUGE deal, and I don’t think it’s being reflected in the number here. Without Ousmane on offense, North Texas is going to need a massive effort from Tylor Perry, and while individually he’s capable of it, I think it’s less likely to happen against a Wisconsin team that’s been defending elite guards all season. Wisconsin has seen some of the best guards in CBB this year, so I fully expect the Badgers to have a game plan for Perry, who, while a very good player, wouldn’t be an elite backcourt scorer in the Big Ten. With Ousmane out on offense, it will take a monster shooting performance (percentage-wise) from North Texas for the Mean Green to win this game. The shots here for North Texas will be lower percentage shots than the shots for Wisconsin, and in a low possession game, I expect that to make the difference here.
Wisconsin leads the country, turning the ball over just 7.9 times per game. The Badgers have improved offensively and are respectable from three-point range, which should play here as North Texas might find themselves trying to double/help in the post to offset the absence of Ousmane. Either way, this is just a better matchup for a Wisconsin side that I still have as the superior team here. The wrong team favored I’ll take the point head start.
Game: (661) Wisconsin at (662) North Texas
Date/Time: Mar 28 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Wisconsin +1.5 (-110)
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Play on Wisconsin +1.5 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)
I was trying to hold out for +2 here, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening, so I’ll lock in the +1.5 with a Wisconsin team that should be favored. It looks like North Texas will be without Abou Ousmane again, and I simply can’t make Mean Green a favorite without him here. North Texas managed to get by Oklahoma State without him, but this is a guy that averages 10.9 points per game on a team that doesn’t score a ton AND leads the Mean Green in rebounding, so I think his absence will be felt against a Big Ten team accustomed to elite competition. Wisconsin didn’t have a good season TO WISCONSIN STANDARDS, but because of that, I think the Badgers have been undervalued in this competition. By no means was this a great Wisconsin team? I also didn’t like this team during the regular season, but the NIT has been a step down in class from the Big Ten, and the Badgers have given an effort and thrived in this tournament. Wisconsin has non-conference wins over Marquette, USC, Stanford, and Dayton; the Badgers lost to Kansas by one and Wake Forest by three and were basically a .500 team in a strong Big Ten Conference. Wisconsin has defeated three very good teams in Bradley, Liberty, and Oregon so far in the NIT, and the most notable thing I’m taking from the three wins is how much better the Wisconsin offense has looked of late. Wisconsin is a Top 25 defensive team nationally; it’s their offense that has dragged them down this season, but 81 against Bradley and 75 against Liberty suggest the Badgers can score points on “lesser” teams. North Texas, as good as they were this season, is a lesser team without Ousmane, and I think we have a WTF “wrong team favored” situation on a neutral floor here.
North Texas relies on efficiency to win games at both ends of the floor, and that’s where no Ousmane really hurts the Mean Green in this matchup. North Texas plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, Wisconsin enjoys the slow pace as well, so the total here is an insanely low 115.5, meaning whoever is getting the most out of their possessions is going to win this game. The Ousmane absence is going to be felt more on the defensive end as he’s one of North Texas' top post defenders and leads the Mean Green in blocks and rebounding. Wisconsin does most of their scoring through the post, so missing a top-post defender is a HUGE deal, and I don’t think it’s being reflected in the number here. Without Ousmane on offense, North Texas is going to need a massive effort from Tylor Perry, and while individually he’s capable of it, I think it’s less likely to happen against a Wisconsin team that’s been defending elite guards all season. Wisconsin has seen some of the best guards in CBB this year, so I fully expect the Badgers to have a game plan for Perry, who, while a very good player, wouldn’t be an elite backcourt scorer in the Big Ten. With Ousmane out on offense, it will take a monster shooting performance (percentage-wise) from North Texas for the Mean Green to win this game. The shots here for North Texas will be lower percentage shots than the shots for Wisconsin, and in a low possession game, I expect that to make the difference here.
Wisconsin leads the country, turning the ball over just 7.9 times per game. The Badgers have improved offensively and are respectable from three-point range, which should play here as North Texas might find themselves trying to double/help in the post to offset the absence of Ousmane. Either way, this is just a better matchup for a Wisconsin side that I still have as the superior team here. The wrong team favored I’ll take the point head start.
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