Tuesday 3/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Need-to-Know: March 27-April 2, 2023

March 27, 2023 | By 1/ST BET

Need-to-Know: March 27-April 2, 2023

Here’s how the upcoming racing week shakes out.

Monday:
Tournament: $80 Santa Anita Feeder
Santa Anita | live racing make-up day
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know – Santa Anita daily analysis
Featured Content | Florida Derby | Meet the Contenders

Tuesday:
Will Rogers Downs | TRAO Classic Sprint Stakes
Featured Content | It’s Official Podcast with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk
Featured Content | Florida Derby Preview Video with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk
Featured Content | Arkansas Derby | Meet the Contenders

Wednesday:
Tournament | $80 Gulfstream Feeder
Featured Content | Florida Derby Post Position Analysis Video with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk
Featured Content | Jon White | Derby Top 10 + Prep Picks

Thursday:
Tournament | $80 Gulfstream Feeder
Featured Content | Florida Derby Longshots to Watch Video with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk
Featured Content | Frank Carulli’s Friday Laurel Carryover Pick 5 / Mandatory Payout Analysis

Friday:
Tournament | $80 Santa Anita Feeder
Laurel Park | Carryover Pick 5 Mandatory Payout
Oaklawn | Matron Stakes
Featured Content | Eddie Olczyk Hat Trick Best Bets for Florida Derby Day Saturday
Featured Content | First Call Podcast with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know – Santa Anita daily analysis

Saturday:
Tournament | $1500 Florida Derby Day Challenge
Gulfstream Park | Florida Derby Day | 10 stakes
Oaklawn | Arkansas Derby Day | 4 stakes
Santa Anita | Royal Heroine Stakes
Gulfstream & Santa Anita | Coast-to-Coast Pick 5
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know – Santa Anita daily analysis

Sunday:
Gulfstream Park | Rainbow 6 Mandatory Payout
Tournament | $80 Santa Anita Feeder
Gulfstream & Santa Anita | Coast-to-Coast Pick 5
Santa Anita | American Stakes
Featured Content | 1/ST BET artificial intelligence picks for Gulfstream Rainbow 6
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know – Santa Anita daily analysis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Gullane Hoping the presence of the guy drawn just inside will keep the price playable here, as he might be just a touch more tactical than that one and already owns a couple efforts over the local footing that would be tough here.
#5 Code Violation He proved a good fit with the locals in that last one when graduating with a solid late rally, but I do think a couple others in here might have a bit higher ceilings at this point in time. Capable.
#1 Super Brother His local form is pretty reliable, and you get the other capable half of the entry signed on as well. A bit iffy on this guy's route form, but he might get the right kind of trip for a piece.
Race Summary Gullane seems likely to be tough in here with a couple good local efforts under his belt already, and I think he's going to be able to just get the jump on Code Violation.

Mahoning Valley - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1A Shutupandshakeit She has done nothing wrong through two starts, and she turned in another sharp effort off the layoff here last month. Think she's in line for a perfect trip while tracking the pace from this outside draw. Price won't be appealing, but I think the entry lands this.
#3 Callmemarthajane She proved a decent fit with the locals when bringing her California form with her last out, and she should be able to find a decent spot spying the speed. Logical alternative.
#5 Years Ago She's likely to battle early on here, but she has done a pretty decent job sticking around for shares late in her races after mixing it up out of the gate. A slice today.
Race Summary Shutupandshakeit puts a couple races together for the first time in her short career, and she has the right style to prompt the splits and control the escalation of the tempo from the start.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Soros He hasn't been able to quite hang with the better ones in those Turfway efforts, but he might wind up being a really good fit with the locals and could be just playable enough on the tote.
#5 War Novel He figures right up on the pace again here, and he has been knocking on the door so far in his two local starts. Best stuff leaves him right there.
#1 Broadway Sky He has been a good fit with the locals in those recent starts, and he might find a pretty cozy trip while in touch early from the inside draw. Guessing they'll try to flash a touch of pace on the break and sort it from there.
Race Summary Soros looks like a decent fit on class here while making his local debut, and he might appreciate getting back on the dirt after a couple modest efforts at Turfway. I'd be interested in him as the second or third choice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 MANDONA (4-1) Can stalk and pounce on lively pace, offers value at maiden-breaking distance.
#1 RENEGADE PRINCESS (5-2) Beat weak field at one mile, projects ideal trip nonetheless.
#5 MICKEY DOBBS (5-1) Got the jump on 2-1 runner-up, ended long winless drought off freshening.
Race Summary MANDONA has tactical speed, a maiden romp at the distance and a trouble line in her first try at this level. She gets a new rider and is worth a win and place bet with a 7/2-2-1 record at track intact.

Turf Paradise - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 SILVER KING BAIN (4-1) Sustained 4-wide bid to win on cutback to this distance, taken to repeat.
#1 CASTLE DOCTRINE (2-1) Three starts in 3 years, two of them photo-finish upset victories.
#4 IRISH KNIGHT (3-1) Stablemate of ‘King’ rallied into fast 6F pace and behind troubled fave for third.
Race Summary SILVER KING BAIN found a passing gear and the 5F distance to his liking when he swept 4-wide en route to his first win as a gelding. His versatility comes in handy in this spot. Valenzuela opted for another mount, but still like the 4-year-old’s chances to repeat. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 ARRABIATA (9-2) Dueled into defeat at 6-1/2F on dirt, seeks re-run of latest turf try for new barn.
#1 SMILING GOODBYE (4-1) Can use his speed well if he handles transition to the lawn.
#2 TERRACOTTA SOLDIER (7-2) Continues to pile up the checks, save for lone grass attempt.
Race Summary ARRABIATA staked repeat winner Golden Ale (3-12, $77k) and finished second in a similar spot on the turf three starts back. He should be in a prime striking spot from just off the pace and could return a quick claim dividend. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Louisiana Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #8 Eagle Flyn Thru Fire 8-1 J Huitron U Luna
2 #6 Torito 2-1 A Huitron A Rivera
3 #2 Mine That Bird 7-2 J Huitron U Luna
4 #2 Corona123 5-2 F Valdez J F Garcia, Jr.
5 #2 Baby Blue Corona 3-1 R Contreras A Gutierrez
6 #1 Jj Jess a Shadow 2-1 J Carrizales R Hernandez
7 #4 Above the Fire 2-1 R Meche R Cabrera

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #6 Wall Street Logic 5-2 T W Fincher F Valdez
2 #6 For Fun 7-2 G Green M A Perez
3 #8 Masterclass 2-1 M Valdez-Cabral, Jr. A J Juarez, Jr.
4 #7 Hereditary 9-2 J Cappellucci L A Fuentes
5 #9 Short Pockets 7-5 D Cappellucci L A Fuentes
6 #8 Artful Rose 4-1 G Green M A Perez
7 #8 Biscuit Snatcher 6-1 T Rust E P Gomez
8 #4 Danz At Colfax 6-1 A Amparan F Amparan
9 #8 Sweet Tempest 4-1 T W Fincher L A Fuentes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Boisterously Irish 8-5 C K Story A Morales
2 #4 Akasi 9-2 N Troiani H Hernandez
3 #2 Ace and Kings 5-1 W Rarick K Lopez
4 #5 Heir 5-2 V Belvoir H Hernandez
5 #1 T Bones Trick 7-2 W Rarick K Lopez
6 #1 Hunter Jumper 5-2 G Eidschun H Hernandez
7 #8 Upper Room 3-1 J R Evans L Negron
8 #2 Giant Payday 4-1 G Eidschun F H Da Silva

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 3	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Rolling Double 50 cent Rolling Pick 3 Races (3-4-5) 20 cent Buckeye Pick 6 (Races 3-8)-70% Carryover
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 1:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 28. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. UNCAPTURED PULSE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAT DADDY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BEA CH FRONT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. UNCAPTURED PULSE: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. KREWE CHIEF: Today is a sprint and this is the h orse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	PAT DADDY	9/5	5/1
5	BEACH FRONT	3/1	6/1
2	UNCAPTURED PULSE	10/1	6/1
1	KREWE CHIEF	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	UNCAPTURED PULSE	1	10/1	Front-runner	87	80	61.8	73.4	60.4
1A	OVERBEARING	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	78	71.2	76.2	62.7
5	BEACH FRONT	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	90	61.0	78.8	73.8
3	PAT DADDY	2	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	94	78	58.4	81.0	76.5
1	KREWE CHIEF	5	7/2	Trailer	85	85	44.8	76.0	71.0
4	CRAFTY CONQUEST	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	87	66.8	64.6	54.6
7	KHALFANI	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	69	62.6	70.8	62.8
6	SILVER G T O	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	83	60.4	75.0	66.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 8	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 4:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * HEROIC SONG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Tr ackMaster Power Rating. ACE GILFORD: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RIVER RULER: Horse ranks in the top three in T rackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SILVER PONZI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's dist ance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
8	HEROIC SONG	8/5	4/1
1	ACE GILFORD	9/5	5/1
5	RIVER RULER	6/1	6/1
4	SILVER PONZI	12/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ACE GILFORD	1	9/5	Front-runner	87	79	84.0	71.6	66.1
4	SILVER PONZI	4	12/1	Front-runner	80	76	79.4	68.0	57.5
8	HEROIC SONG	8	8/5	Stalker	83	87	59.0	78.4	75.9
5	RIVER RULER	5	6/1	Stalker	86	82	53.2	68.6	64.6
3	AFLEET SNIPER	3	8/1	Trailer	80	72	23.6	65.8	56.3
2	PROUD MOMENTS	2	20/1	Trailer	78	71	20.0	63.6	51.6
6	SPECTACTICAL	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	67	55.3	57.8	42.3
9	OVER EZ	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	64	52.4	35.8	19.8
7	REMEMBER ME TONY	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	70	45.5	56.2	44.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16900 Class Rating: 82

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOR NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER WHICH HAVE NOT FINISHED BETTER THAN THIRD AT THE SUNLAND PARK 2022-23 RACE MEET. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SHORT POCKETS 7/5
# 7 RELEASE THE GENIE 15/1
# 5 CARMON'S DANCE 6/1

SHORT POCKETS has a competitive shot to take this race. Overall the speed figures of this pony look quite good in this outing. Don't overlook this mare in your bets - very dangerous with Fuentes aboard. Ought to be given consideration in this race if only for the formidable speed fig put up in the last outing. CARMON'S DANCE - Has a solid shot here if you like back class. Looks respectable against this field and ought to be one of the early speedsters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 4:18pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,400 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#3 SIR DEPUTY (ML=6/1)
#6 ROUSING RUBBLE (ML=4/1)
#1 REDACTION (ML=9/2)


SIR DEPUTY - Really figure this beautiful animal is going to be right there at the finish. ROUSING RUBBLE - A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a sharp effort is a good omen. REDACTION - Last ran at Turf Paradise and finished fifth. Reviewing his PP data, I see he was close at the wire, within five of the winner. A repeat of that most recent effort on Feb 13th where he notched a speed rating of 85 looks high enough to score in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 UPPER ROOM (ML=3/1), #2 PARLEY STREET (ML=5/1), #5 MOJAVE (ML=6/1),

UPPER ROOM - You should normally wager against probable favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. Mediocre speed fig in the last race at Turf Paradise at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event. PARLEY STREET - A pattern of decreasing speed figures 83/75/71 for this racer. MOJAVE - Finished third in his most recent race with a run-of-the-mill speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 SIR DEPUTY on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 58

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MR RAGLEY KID 10/1
# 1 VP PRIZE TIME DASH 6/1
# 3 BARB WIRE 15/1

MR RAGLEY KID has a strong shot to take this race especially at a long price. With a formidable 55 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. This colt gets a boost with Gutierrez in the saddle. BARB WIRE - Must be given a shot given the class of races run lately. Garcia's ROI over the last month automatically makes this equine a sharp contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:55pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#6 HALLIGIRL (ML=4/1)
#3 CREME CARAMEL (ML=3/1)


HALLIGIRL - Brown drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to believe this horse has a shot at this level. Speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice race last out within the last 30 days. You have to really like that recent race speed rating, 67, which is the best last race speed rating of this field. CREME CARAMEL - When Sanchez and Dominguez join forces on horses the ROI has been fantastic at +123. Last raced at Parx Racing in a race with an Equibase class figure of 63. Dropping considerably in class rating this time puts her in a solid position in this race. Sanchez comes to get aboard after getting to know the filly in the last event. This filly is in good form, having run a nice race on Mar 8th, finishing first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MINDING MILLIE (ML=8/5), #4 DON'T TELL FRANKIE (ML=8/1),

MINDING MILLIE - This equine hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of races. DON'T TELL FRANKIE - She showed not much at all in the last affair. Registered a substandard speed rating last time out in a $7,500 Claiming race on February 14th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 HALLIGIRL on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Tuesday, March 28th 2023 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
MAHONING VALLEY
RACE #6
TIME: 3:01 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Divine Martha 6/1 odds to win @ Bovada