Saturday 4/1/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Florida Derby (G1)
Looking for value in Florida Derby
By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan


This is the highlight of the Gulfstream winter meeting. The weather will be spectacular.

We have twelve runners going one and an eight for the money and 200 points are up for grabs for the Kentucky Derby five weeks from now.
Forte, Forte, Forte. Did I mention #11 Forte? Deserved Florida Derby favorite and the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby at this juncture. The Florida Derby has produced so many Kentucky Derby winners it hard to count. Hard to doubt that Forte will not win here as he did in the Fountain of Youth Stake a month ago.

One of his prime challengers, Rocket Can, is out of town for the run in Arkansas.

From a strictly handicapping standpoint there is only one winner, Forte, unless something silly happens. He is drawn to the outside which is not ideal but has a jockey that is keenly aware of all that goes on in these situations. And there is no value from a betting standpoint for a win bet.

Personally, I don't bet a favorite unless there is great value underneath with value odds to go with such a short priced favorite. So I'm looking for contenders who are proven at a distance, have the breeding to go and stay, close well against a fairly fast pace and have odds that justify the wager. Let's look at a few….

#9 Cyclone Mischief is ranked third on the power scale for this race but weakened in the stretch going shorter in the FOY.

There are two Good Magic colts in the race and Good Magic has had great success this season.

#4 Mage was all the rage after a lightning quick win first time out and finished a good fourth against Forte in the FOY. He gets Luis Saez who could be very strong on the front as seen with Maximum Security.

#12 Dubyuhnell has gone the distance in the slop and won the Remsen last December. His return was not so good but, is consistent with what happens with most young horses after a big win into a layoff. I expect a move forward given the connections.

#8 Mr. Ripple is another that's been tested going the distance and on this track. Sent to us by Dialed In, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Zayas he has my nod as an ITM player.

#2 West Coast Cowboy showed a lot of guts in the Holy Bull at 58-1 which paid a great price in the exotics. Sony Leon is up and no doubt has shown his ability with a horse that might have the mind to get open and clear some competition.

Two interesting colts from two great dads, Arrogate's #1 Jungfrau has gone this distance twice. Don't this Juddmonte and Bill Mott would be sending him out for practice. And California Chrome’s #5 Mr. Peek. Yeah that's crazy, right. Okay, I like the idea of having a horse in there who is ridden by a guy who wins 36% on routes and is ITM 56% of the time. Picking two who are Maidens. What? Okay done quibbling about my choices.

Handigambling – A friend of mine asked me to make a Superfecta for this one and here it is:

$0.10 Superfecta below = $12 fun bet and you can bet it in multiples. It will pay best if the 2 or 8 come in second.

11 with 2, 4, 8, 12, with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12

Other bet options

$1 Exacta - 2, 4, 8, 11, 12 w 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12 = $35 sensible bet if you believe in silly things happen to nice horses.

$10 Exacta - 11 with 4, 9, 12 = $30 logical given the odds

$5 Exacta - 11 with 1, 2, 5, 8 = $20 hoping for longshot heaven

$1 Trifecta - 11 w 2, 4, 8, 12 w 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 = $24 solid bet with a good payout of longshots come 2nd

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Bonus Round - Arkansas Derby – Win Contenders are 6 and 7….bet as you wallet will allow

$1 Trifecta - 6, 7, with 4, 5, 6, 7, with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11 = $30
$2 Exacta - 4, 5, 6, 7, with 4, 5, 6, 7, 11 = $32

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Jury: Bets and fades for April 1
TwinSpires Staff

The Florida and Arkansas Derby Day programs offer a plethora of wagering opportunities on Saturday, and that's what James Scully, Vance Hanson, and Ashley Anderson have focused on for this week's TwinSpires Jury.
What is your best bet?

James Scully: #2 Grand Love (8-1) in the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The speedy filly set the pace in all three starts last year, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), but she didn't break sharply when opening 2023 in the Feb. 25 Honeybee (G3), stalking up close in third. She never quit despite a rough trip in the stretch, winding up third, and the Gun Runner filly shows a pair of bullet five-furlong works in the interim. Grand Love figures to show speed from her inside post with new jockey Tyler Gaffalione, and I like her chances on the front end.

Vance Hanson: #5 Amazing Grace (5-2) is the class of the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park and should prove as much, provided she handles the quick ground on her U.S. debut. A new addition to the Christophe Clement barn, which has a record seven wins in the Orchid, Amazing Grace landed a Group 2 at Baden-Baden last September and followed up with a third against males in the Preis von Europa (G1), in which she was beaten only three lengths by subsequent Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) hero Rebel's Romance. That bit of form is good enough for me.

Ashley Anderson: In the $100,000 Sanibel Island S. at Gulfstream, #3 Riding Pretty (5-1) has a chance to rebound following her troubled trip in her first graded stakes try when fifth by just a length and a half in the one-mile Herecomesthebride (G3) on March 4. Two back, the three-year-old filly got up by a neck in a 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer while posting an 85 Brisnet Speed figure and beat today's race rival #10 Metaphysical (8-1), who finished second. Riding Pretty should benefit from a drop in class as well as a cutback to 7 1/2 furlongs, and trainer Eddie Owens Jr. is a 43% winner with horses going from long to short. Regular rider Paco Lopez, a 21% winner with presser types, will stick with the War Front granddaughter, who can upset morning line favorite #2 Love Appeals (3-1) in her second career race.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: A convincing sprint winner in his first two starts, #2 Eyeing Clover (5-2) will stretch to a two-turn mile as the morning-line choice in the Hot Springs S. at Oaklawn following a fourth as the favorite in the Gotham (G3) at a one-turn mile, weakening after dueling on the front end. There's some serious competition in the seven-horse field, and Eyeing Clover probably won't get an easy lead. I'll try to beat him at a two-turn trip.

VH: I'd be mildly surprised if #2 My Prankster (5-2) goes off favored in the Sir Shackleton S. at Gulfstream, but I guess he'll still be backed some and thus is still eligible as a worthy fade. Although he ran well against talented peers last season like Jack Christopher and Gunite, the colt hasn't run since late July and hasn't yet faced older horses. Two of the latter, Weyburn and Collaborate, ran one-two in this race last year and both figure tough nuts for My Prankster to crack off such a long spell.

AA: #5 First Captain (9-5) returned from a 50-day layoff to place second by a nose to Dynamic One in the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) at Belmont last July, then jumped back up to Grade 1 competition in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he got up late to finish 3 3/4 lengths in third to Olympiad. In his last start, the Curlin five-year-old cut back to 1 1/8 miles and came home 19 lengths fifth in the Fayette (G2) at Keeneland while recording an 82 Brisnet Speed rating. Shortening up to 1 1/16 miles in his first start in more than five months should be a challenge for the Shug McGaughey pupil, who appears best suited for longer distances. At his expected price, I'll look elsewhere and back #4 O'Connor (3-1), who flashed a 98 Brisnet figure in his last two at today's distance and can benefit from a rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr., a 28% winner at Gulfstream who's an impressive 8-for-15 paired with trainer Saffie Joseph over the last two months.

What else is worth noting?

JS: The Kentucky Derby (G1) spotlight shines upon the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Florida Derby (G1) Saturday, and I'll side with #10 Red Route One (3-1) on the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby. The Gun Runner colt has come on at age three for Steve Asmussen, and Red Route One is eligible to receive a favorable setup with Two Eagles River adding speed to the mix. In the Florida Derby, Forte will have to negotiate traffic from an outside post, but I won't pick against the heavy favorite.

VH: For those looking to take a stand against Wet Paint in the Fantasy, early second choice #1 She's Lookin Lucky (5-2) looks plenty fast enough based on her recent two-turn form. Graduating by a baker's dozen at Fair Grounds two back, She's Lookin Lucky was a clear second best to promising Punchbowl in a track-and-distance allowance here on March 5. A fast track and positional speed ought to help her in this initial matchup against the deep-closing Wet Paint, who's only won on off tracks so far.

AA: Mendelssohn filly #5 Miracle (5-2) was named the morning line favorite in Saturday's Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), a 2023 Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep that will award points to the top five finishers on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis. Last out, Miracle came home three-quarters of a length in second in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) as a 13-1 choice when making her first start for trainer Todd Pletcher.

She's poised to take another step forward in her second start for the trainer, but her stablemate #6 Atomically (7-2) may get the perfect setup to return to the winner's circle. By Girvin, the bay filly made her debut for Pletcher in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), where she came home 6 3/4 lengths in seventh. She followed up her graded stakes attempt with a third in the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G3) as the 2-1 favorite after breaking a bit slow. With a better start, she can rebound in her third start off a layoff.

But Atomically is not the only threat to Miracle's chances. It'll also be interesting to see if #4 Affirmative Lady (10-1) can step forward with the move up in class in her sixth career start. Trainer Graham Motion raced the Arrogate filly against graded stakes company as a maiden, and Affirmative Lady was just a neck shy of victory in the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct. She broke her maiden last out, in her fifth career race, in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at today's track. The closer has a chance to factor late with Luis Saez aboard, especially with Miracle and #8 Dorth Vader (4-1) potentially wearing each other out in an early speed duel.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2023 Orchid Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
March 31, 2023

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. VIBURNUM (10-1) – Unraced since mid-December, when she captured an off-the-turf renewal of the Via Borghese S., which was run on the Tapeta; can’t say that field was close to this one in depth, and note she’s struggled to contend in prior graded attempts.

2. MISS YEARWOOD (10-1) – A slow start and a too-short one-mile distance seemingly worked against her in the March 4 Honey Fox (G3), not to mention the layoff and front wraps; however, her race two back in the Jockey Club Oaks (G3), a third behind the classy McKulick, was pretty good, given her relative inexperience on grass and at the class level; capable of better here, and recent bullet breeze was sharp, considering it was around the dogs.

3. TRANSIENT (7-2) – Went down swinging against Personal Best two back, though that rival always appeared to have her measure, and last out she encountered trouble multiple times and was perhaps better than her one-length loss to Euro import Mylady suggested; overall, her form since arriving in the Joseph barn has been rock solid, though seemingly needs a peak effort and regression by the two main players to pull off the mild surprise here.

4. TAMARINDO (20-1) – One of several legitimately long prices here; indeed, she looks very much up against it after failing to place in two of her last three tries against Florida-bred N1X foes; although her style suggests she’ll appreciate additional ground, the class leap looks too significant.

5. AMAZING GRACE (5-2) – Clement has won this race a record seven times, though only once since 2005; brings a very strong candidate for number eight with this German-bred who earned a signature Group 2 win last September; that was book-ended by a narrow loss to German Derby (G1) winner Sammarco in a Group 1 at Munich and a third behind Rebel’s Romance and Sammarco in the Preis von Europa (G1); Rebel’s Romance, of course, went on to score in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1); with form lines like those, she looks the one to beat if she can handle the noticeably quicker ground she’ll encounter here.

6. PERSONAL BEST (3-1) – Although she cut it relatively close by taking the La Prevoyante (G3) by only a neck, the fact is she was looking like the winner for much of the last half-mile, merely waiting for Ortiz to give her the signal to go; her staying form has been outstanding since stretching out beyond 1 1/4 miles last September, and it is obvious Shug has a very nice long-distance turf filly on his hands; imposing as a repeat prospect here.

7. LADY ARSINOE (20-1) – Odd for barn to place their stock in such a difficult spot, but that’s the best description for a filly who made no impression in either of her last two starts facing N2X allowance company; connections perhaps hoping race falls apart and they get lucky snaring a black-type placing, but that seems a tall order on paper.

8. ATOMIC BLONDE (7-2) – The second of Clement’s two German-bred raiders is not as consistent; outrun by Amazing Grace in the Group 2 Baden-Baden, she later went on to score in a Group 3 in Milan, albeit over soft ground; if that’s the kind of ground she excels on, she’s won’t find it here after a very dry winter around Gulfstream; can certainly snag a share, but others preferred on top.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Stakes Spot Plays for April 1
John Mucciolo

A quartet of stakes races are carded for Oaklawn Park on Saturday, topped by the lucrative $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1). In this piece I will focus on the trio of undercard events.
Race 5 – Oaklawn Mile S. (G3)

A total of seven horses will go postward in the one-mile event on the dirt. As much as I like #1 Smile Happy (9-5) in general, I will be siding with Bob Baffert’s #7 Hopper (7-5) on this occasion. The Grade 3 winner is the speed of the field despite having blinkers removed, and the cutback in distance seems ideal for the talented colt. The Declaration of War four-year-old exits a good try in the Santa Anita H. (G1) and will be fully fit for his third outing since June. John Velazquez will be in the controls.
Race 8 – Hot Springs S.

The one-mile contest for three-year-olds is a nice spot for Three Chimneys’ homebred #3 Gun Pilot (7-2). By Gun Runner, the Steve Asmussen-trained colt didn’t handle sloppy going in the Rebel S. (G2) most recently but faces a more realistic task on Saturday. The bay ran a trio of good races to begin his career, which includes a sharp allowance tally on the surface on February 4, and I expect him to shine in the contest. The stalker will sit off of a contested early pace prior to moving to the fore in the lane with regular pilot Ricardo Santana in the silks.
Race 10 – Fantasy S. (G3)

Sophomore fillies will travel 1 1/16 miles in the key Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep race. Godolphin homebred #6 Wet Paint (8-5) won’t be much of a price in the affair, but I still can’t look past the potent late runner. Trained by Brad Cox, the bay daughter of Blame is three-for-three on dirt in her career and comes into this race off of a trio of very good morning moves as of late. Flavien Prat will guide the Honeybee S. (G3) victress and ask her for her run approaching the turn for home. She will be a formidable foe with anything resembling her best effort.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOP SHOT
Top Shot - Jerry Shottenkirk
Remington Park Selections
Saturday, April 1

1st Race
2 SHESA SWEET GYPSY
7 THE LAD CAN DASH
6 KG THERUNNINKIND
3 RJ JAY DEE

2nd Race
2 JESS GOOD PAINT
10 CANYONS STREAKING
8 FANCY PRIZED WAGON
9 DUTY BOUND

3rd Race
1 LADIE LUCK
4 FUN ON THE BEACH
8 TIMOTHY
2 MARI GO ROUND

4th Race
9 OG CAPONE
10 STRECH THE WIRE
7 RP DIRTY BARRACUDA
6 EMERALD COAST

5th Race
2 FANCI FANCY
4 FLYING GOLD JESS
5 JESS OUR MIRACLE
1 CALL ME A POET

6th Race
6 JESS LUSCIOUS LIPS J
7 WINGS ON MY DREAMS
4 SHEZA PRIZE WAGON
1 SPECIAL SEPARABLY

7th Race
3 FABULOUS MITOLE
10 HIGH FLING
8 SJM DESIRE TO FLY
9 MKS TEMPTING

8th Race
3 DASHING DIAMOND
2 WHOLE LOTA BLUE
8 REVENANT BABE
5 WAYMAKERR

9th Race
6 AMERICAS RUNAWAY
3 BEXLEY
4 TEAR IT UP
10 SEPARATE THE FACTS

10th Race
3 CHARLIES FURY
6 JK WILDCAT RED
5 A TRES OF EAGLE
1 WIEBURG

11th Race
7 FIRST LIBBY LARK
1 MY LADY PILOT
3 PEVS LITTLE DUDE
8 SJM DESIRABLE CANDY

12th Race
10 DOCS BEST BUD
2 TEMPTINGEYE
5 ROCK CANDY DF
4 BLISTER

TODAY’S BEST BET
FABULOUS MITOLE (7th)

PICK FIVE
(Races 1-5)
2-7-6 with 2-10 with 1-4-8 with 9-10-7-6 with 2
($36)

PREMIER PICK FOUR
(Races 2-5)
2-10-8 with 1-4-8 with 9-10-7-6 with 2-4 ($36)

Pinnacle PICK FOUR
(Races 6-9)
6-7 with 3-10 with 3-2-8-5 with 6-7-4-10 ($32)

PRIMETIME PICK FOUR
(Races 9-12)
6-7-4-10 with 3-6 with 7-1-3 with 10-2-5 ($36)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remington Park Selections
Track Announcer - Dale Day
Dale’s Picksby Track Announcer Dale Day

Race 1
6 KG Therunninkind
2 Shesa Sweet Gypsy
7 The Lad Can Dash
3 RJ Jay Dee

Race 2
9 Duty Bound
10 Canyons Streaking
3 JCs First Dash Baby
1 Six de Fame

Race 3
4 Fun On The Beach
3 Kool Storm
8 Timothy
5 Hes Mighty Perfect

Race 4
2 Turnpike Trooper
6 Emerald Coast
7 RP Dirty Barracuda
9 OG Capone

Race 5
2 Fanci Fancy
6 Blur
4 Flying Gold Jess
3 Bamboom Tambien

Race 6
1 Special Separably
5 Corona Red Rocket
6 Jess Luscious Lips J
4 Sheza Prize Wagon

Race 7
3 Fabulous Mitole
1 Tottsye Pop
9 MKs Tempting
5 Dominate Chic

Race 8
3 Dashing Diamond
1 First Class Train
5 Waymakerr
2 Whole Lota Blue

Race 9
4 Tear It Up
3 Bexley
9 Eyesa Awesome Blue
6 Americas Runaway

Race 10
Mr Jet Moore Stakes
3 Charlies Fury
7 Purty Darn Quick
6 JK Wildcat Red
5 A Tres of Eagle

Race 11
4 Sawyer Strange
7 First Libby Lark
3 Pevs Little Dixie
6 Jo Capi

Race 12
5 Rock Candy DF
10 Docs Best Bud
2 Temptingeye
4 Blister

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rich's Pitches - Richard Linihan
Remington Park Selections
RICH'S PITCHES BY RICHARD LINIHAN

RACE 1
#2 Shesa Sweet Gypsy
#6 Kg Therunninkind
#3 Rj Jay Dee
#1 Heza One Fast Eagle

RACE 2
#9 Duty Bound
#2 Jess Good Paint
#10 Canyons Streaking
#1 Six de Fame

RACE 3
#8 Timothy
#3 Kool Storm
#7 Rc Jones
#1 Ladie Luck

RACE 4
#6 Emerald Coast
#7 Rp Dirty Barracuda
#3 Dtl Hot Lips
#1 Dowah Diddy Diddy

RACE 5
#6 Blur
#2 Fanci Fancy
#4 Flying Gold Jess
#1 Call Me a Poet

RACE 6
#1 Special Separably
#5 Corona Red Rocket
#7 Wings On My Dreams
#8 Going Gaga

RACE 7
#10 High Fling
#3 Fabulous Mitole
#1 Tootsye Pop
#2 Ncc Cherry Bottom

RACE 8
#8 Revenant Babe
#5 Waymakerr
#2 Whole Lota Blue
#7 Bluemoon Arising

RACE 9
#6 Americas Runaway
#3 Bexley
#9 Eyesa Awesome Blue
#1 Checotah Candy

RACE 10
#3 Charlies Fury
#7 Purty Darn Quick
#6 Jk Wildcat Red
#1 Wieburg

RACE 11
#7 First Libby Lark
#1 My Lady Pilot
#2 One Dun Hero
#5 Hot Lil Marfa

RACE 12
#5 Rock Candy Df
#4 Blister
#2 Temptingeye
#10 Docs Best Bud

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know for Santa Anita - 4/1/23

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April 1, 2023

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

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April 1, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has 14 races scheduled with the Saturday night feature going in Race 10, an Open 1-2 Handicap Pace with a $36,000 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on an off-track.

Race 6

1-Ultimaroca (3-1)-Raced big in the slop, got on the engine and was nipped by the pocket horse who is not in this race. Back in at the same class and should be tough to beat.
7-My Pal Joe (7/2)-Raced in the same race as the one above and finished 3rd. Wasn't as good as the top two and Joe's trip wasn't as smooth. But this time TMac, who sticks, could leave and benefit from a pocket ride.

Race 7

6-Mysweetboymax (5/2)-Max has hit the board in 8 of 14 at M1 with 4 pictures, this should be a meaningful drop in class and Stratton picks over #1. Caught a rough trip in last against better and it might be time to book the 5th win of the year.
7-De Los Cielos Deo (6-1)-Steps up off an efficient win in the slop and the Burke trainee shouldn't blush at this competition. Gingras should have the pedal down and be racing near the stop of the stack again.

Race 8

2-Bullville Stephano (5-1)-Has hit the board in all 4 races on an off-track and notched 1 win. Gets a new set of hands in Tetrick and should be forwardly placed again. Comes off a good effort on 3-25 and 7 in this group either has a stale date or is coming off of a qualifier.
5-Captain Planet (9/2)-Gingras picks this Takter pupil over #2 and he steered him as a 2-year-old at the Red Mile. Came the back half in 55.4 on 3-25 in a M1 qualifier. Looks like a main player if fires hot off the bench.
8-Ants Marching (7/2)-Here is one of 3 from the Takter stable and this Ohio bred has earned the most money but has only 1 win in 9 starts. Qualifier in the slop at the Big M was fine and has 1 win in 5 races here. Should be a player if minds manners and if the fractions are lively this gelding can roll late.

Race 9

2-Striking Impact (6-1)-Raced well last week on a sloppy track but now faces better. Zeron takes over for Bartlett, he may look to get sucked around and use a strong move down the lane. That kind of trip worked for a picture with the same pilot here on 2-18, and does have 4 wins on an off track.
6-I'm Some Graduate (7/2)-Comes off a nice win on an off track and has raced better in his last 2 starts. Might show up in a big way despite facing tougher. TMac sticks over the 4/10 and an off track shouldn't hurt chances. Has booked 4 wins in 15 starts on a wet surface and was a runner up 3 times.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,7/6,7/2,5,8/2,6
Total Bet=$12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Oaklawn Park - Race #9

#9 Manta Ray	Interested to see this one step up again after an improved effort last time out. He has some proving to do on class, but the barn has landed all three wins this season in the last month here, so maybe he holds the form here while rising.
#5 Seeking Unity	He has a right to be tough in a race without any other real standout players, and he should be in line for another great trip tracking the speed. Baseline try makes him tough.
#1 Night Effect	Get a look at him on the tote and track, but he might be ready enough to land a piece of this at a decent price. Don't think this is the deepest local spot for the level.
Race Summary	Manta Ray has some appeal at a mid-range price while stepping up with special weight company, as his better form fits for a barn that has been hitting a stride in recent weeks after getting blanked for the season prior to that.

Oaklawn Park - Race #10

#8 Royal Spa	She has some upside in this second start off the layoff, and she might offer a price that's just playable enough with the chalk likely to command some action.
#6 Wet Paint	Not much to argue with on current form, as she wasn't hard pressed in either of her local stakes win and handled some of these along the way. The obvious one to beat right back.
#4 Taxed	Her form has always been all over the place, so she has some room to bounce back after fading late in that last one, but she could stay for a piece at a price if she gets back to that grinding two-back effort behind Wet Paint
Race Summary	Royal Spa and Wet Paint both figure to get an okay setup from off the pace today, but the former should offer a better price here with a lot of bettors likely to reasonably gravitate toward Wet Paint.

Oaklawn Park - Race #12

#3 Harlocap	I'm still a bit agnostic on him overall, but that 9 1/2 length defeat last time out actually made him by far the best of the pace players in a race that totally fell apart. I'm worried that he's a bit too one dimensional to effectively rate, but I don't think the race shape looks nearly as imposing today.
#7 Rocket Can	He has some very tough customers in those company lines from his losses, and he should be in line for one of the better trips while spying the speed and waiting to make a move.
#8 Reincarnate	He ran well despite a bunch of trouble last time out, and he's likely to be sitting a lot closer to the pace this time around. Capable, but I think he's overbet.
Race Summary	#6 Angel of Empire makes sense here, but he also got a beautiful setup in New Orleans last out that he might not get again today. Tough call there. Harlocap was one of the ones doing the dirty work that day, and I'm willing to take a decent price to find out what he's made of with a more manageable pace scenario.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #3

#5 BACKSTREET AFFAIR (4-1)	Snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, like the way she finished.
#2 LADY JEAN (2-1)	Finished first or second in 9 of 18 starts at this distance, seeks repeat win.
#7 SHACKLEFORD COUNTY (5-2)	Dueled and won by a neck in last pair to join $200k Club.
Race Summary	BACKSTREET AFFAIR engaged in a head-and-head duel inside of the second favorite and appeared defeated when she steadied sharply near the top of the stretch while the trip-sitting runner-up loomed boldly. But she made a remarkable recovery and surged late for a repeat victory. Here’s to three wins in a row with a win and place bet.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#2 DYNAMISM (5-1)	Good bloodlines, good workouts, should make good first impression.
#5 GINGER GIRL (4-1)	Just missed in well-bet and troubled debut, posted pair of bullets since then.
#4 SISTER CLOUDY (3-1)	Russell firster worked in 1:01.4 from the gate in final tune-up.
Race Summary	DYNAMISM debuts for Motion off a series of 12 workouts in the last three months. She is by Uncle Mo, the fourth-leading sire in North America this year in progeny earnings ($4 million) and her dam, Afleeting Lady (7-20, $473k), was a multiple graded stakes winner going a route of ground. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#1 MRS DEL (6-1)	Regained winning confidence in seasonal debut, claimed by solid barn.
#6 MY JUBA (7-5)	Dueled from mid-turn to mid-stretch and edged clear for red-hot barn.
#3 FORTES (8-1)	Chased fast pace, rallied 4-wide to win, edged clear at wire at Charles Town.
Race Summary	MRS. DEL was claimed out of a comeback victory that got her eligible for this spot. The 7-year-old posted steady numbers but was no factor against allowance sprinters such as Ishiyaya (6-35, $235k) and Halfinthewrapper (9-33, $228k) at Woodbine. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Claiming $8,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 3:35P
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 16 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. PESCADOR DE SUENOS is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TALVEZ TALVEZ: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PESCADOR DE SUENOS: Horse's win percent age at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FABIAN GUILLERMO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Pow er Rating.
3	TALVEZ TALVEZ	3/1	4/1
6	PESCADOR DE SUENOS	9/2	9/2
5	FABIAN GUILLERMO	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	FABIAN GUILLERMO	5	5/1	Front-runner	60	49	59.4	40.2	35.2
1	EDUARDITO M	1	4/1	Front-runner	59	47	45.6	34.1	25.6
6	PESCADOR DE SUENOS	6	9/2	Stalker	58	55	54.8	45.6	40.1
3	TALVEZ TALVEZ	3	3/1	Trailer	61	57	51.4	56.2	53.7
2	JURAMENTO	2	2/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	47	48.4	33.1	23.1
4	PICU SPEED	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	23	19	39.4	32.2	21.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel ParkPURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 9	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &10 cent SUPERFECTA
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 71 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 4:52P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $24,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. UNION LEAGUE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNION LEAGUE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THE GREAT GAZOO: Horse h as the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MARGIE'S FUN SON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. LUV YA BYE BYE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	UNION LEAGUE	8/1	9/2
5	THE GREAT GAZOO	4/1	9/2
4	MARGIE'S FUN SON	15/1	6/1
6	LUV YA BYE BYE	7/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	THE GREAT GAZOO	5	4/1	Front-runner	70	57	45.4	62.4	58.4
6	LUV YA BYE BYE	6	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	66	56	69.4	55.6	47.6
2	UNION LEAGUE	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	71	49.3	25.6	20.1
4	MARGIE'S FUN SON	4	15/1	Trailer	0	0	24.5	64.4	60.4
3	TWICE GOLD	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	60	13.4	53.8	45.8

Unknown Running Style: EMOTIONAL RESCUE (6/1) [Jockey: Humphrey William - Trainer: Motion H Graham], LEGENDAIRE (9/5) [Jockey: Montanez Rosario - Trainer: Perkins Jr Benjamin W].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 83

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 ALLYMISSLOVE 6/1
# 5 MORE THAN GLORY 8/1
# 3 GOLDEN RUNNER 8/1

ALLYMISSLOVE looks formidable to best this field. This racer has some longshot handicapping angles going for her. Look for a quite good pace improvement from this racer who enters with second time Lasix today. Brisset has her trained admirably to break rapidly out of the starting gate. MORE THAN GLORY - Players should note that this equine runs with second time Lasix today. Might best this group of horses in this race here, showing very good figures of late. GOLDEN RUNNER - Decent shot today with second time Lasix. Has performed quite well lately in route races, posting a nifty 74 avg speed figure.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #1 - Post: 4:34pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $82,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#6 JAKE ROCKS (ML=9/2)
#1 KAZ'S BEACH (ML=8/1)
#3 SILVER SEEKER (ML=5/1)
#8 MONEY SUPPLY (ML=4/1)
#7 AMERICAN LAW (ML=10/1)


JAKE ROCKS - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a nice effort last race out within the last 30 days. Utilizing this jockey/trainer combination is a smart move. KAZ'S BEACH - This gelding's last speed figure registered on February 18th is uppermost in last race speed figures. SILVER SEEKER - This front-runner is cutting back in distance today. Should aid his chances of winning. LaCroix moves this one here to Cross Country Pick Four from Aqueduct. Looking at the horse's recent past performance lines, he has shown the ability to win at multiple race tracks. MONEY SUPPLY - The race may set up nicely for this thoroughbred's late kick and he's probably the best stretch runner in the field. Ran a lackluster race at Aqueduct last out. Racing under normal track conditions puts this colt at the top of my contenders list. AMERICAN LAW - This gelding is almost always in the top three.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LIFE CHANGER (ML=7/2), #2 WATASHA (ML=8/1),

LIFE CHANGER - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a sprint event to be worth the risk at minimal odds in a sprint. WATASHA - Tough for anyone who saw this entrant in his last event to wager on him this time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 KAZ'S BEACH to win if you can get odds of 7/1 or more