Monday 4/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

April 3, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway begins the week with a 12-race card which features action from the Borgata Pacing Series. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

1-American Dealer N (5-1)-Has only raced 2 times on an off track and stayed close enough to Jimmy Freight in some ugly weather to finish 2nd. Has a post edge on Jimmy who may race from the back starting from the 7-hole. This is a nice horse who could be in line for a sweet trip.
2-American Courage (7/2)-Will toss last from post 7 in the slop, should be in the mix here and could be sitting on a big try in the 3rd start off the bench.
3-Idealsomemagic A (3-1)-Winner in 7 of 8, the last 2 on Lasix, was dominant in the rain last week. May need to come 1st over but does have gate speed and will trust Stratton to know the best route. Probably won't be as easy but not going to let him beat me at what could be a fair price.

Race 10

1-Splash Brother (6/5)-Bumps up after drawing off by more than 6 lengths and has beaten better on this oval in the past. Should be a main player at a tiny price.
3-Tiger Baron (5/2)-Liked this guy last week, Brennan provided a nice trip, and a picture was taken. Bumps up here and was in the hunt versus tougher last month. Brennan steers for the 2nd straight time and could cash the top check again.

Race 11

3-Mike's Z Tam (3-1)-Burke trainee ships in from M1 and should be a player versus this kind with an inside post draw. Does good work at YR, Gingras should get a close-up seat and be there at the wire.
5-Windsun Ricky (5-1)-Drops after being in too tough against Open company. Was in at this level 2 back and raced evenly in the slop. Dunn will be making his 2nd straight steer and its off-track record is 1-15. Looking for a big try on a fast track.

Race 12

3-Mach Doro A (9/5)-Beaten chalk drops after looking rough on the turns and was locked on the left line. The track was bad, that could be a worthy excuse and was no match for a well-meant winner. Not loving the short price but could rebound on a dry surface.
5-JoJo's Place (4-1)-Stopped on a sloppy track before the last turn and now returns to the Berkely barn off a claim. Kakaley sticks should be a solid price off the last line and will take a swing as its off-track record is 1-20. Returning to this barn could make a winning difference.
7-Audi Hare N (20-1)-This 11-year-old has only raced 3 times on a an off-track in 111 starts. Bumped up in the last race in the 1st start after a claim by Di Domenico. Went off at 17-1, Brennan blasted out from past 7 in the slop, the trip took its toll and faded to finish 4th. The track should be much better this time, may not be 17-1 but can be a price and will use in the 2nd start for the new barn.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,3/1,3/3,5/3,5,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #5
Picks Notes
#8 Qian B C He should be a playable enough price off the recent running lines, and there appears to be a decent bit of pace signed on in this spot. Think he's capable here as maybe the most reliable finisher.
#7 Yo Beers He was second at a big price with similar last time out, but I think he's in line for another good trip while showing a touch of speed and more ability to relax than the other forward players.
#5 Holy Saint He's probably best of the forward players, and he has run okay from a pressing spot in the past. He'll get bet again here, but he makes a lot of sense.
Race Summary Qian B C might get a good run of things here with at least four speed/chasing types in here who have no history of passing other horses. When the chasers tire, he might be the right one to pick them up.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Blood Moon He bounced back well off the rare clunker two starts back, and he should be in line for a great trip while right up on the pace early on. Maybe playable as the second choice?
#4 Hard n'Sweet I think he's a bit questionable on class here, but he might wind up finding a decent first-over kind of trip, and he occasionally pops the kind of race that would keep him in the frame here at a decent number.
#2 Raison Karter He has a right to be tough here if he can hold the form from that last one, but that win came in a fast race, and I'm not totally sold he's running right back to it today. Steps back at a shorter price?
Race Summary Blood Moon gets the edge in a race where I think you can make a decent case for a few of them, as he should get a dreamy go from close range out of this high draw.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Lanalikeschoochoos She handled the step up from the $10,000 level nicely to graduate last time out, and I think she found a group she might be able to speed pop again. She's meeting route pace and chasing speed, but she might be able to turn them all away while rising again.
#7 Honeybell She was well meant at a cheap level in the Turfway debut, and she might have enough upside to think she can land a piece of this while stepping into a tougher spot.
#1 Catchafallnstar She steps up off the bench with inconsistent Indiana form, but she occasionally passes some horses late, and that might serve her well here at a price.
Race Summary Lanalikeschoochoos gets what seems like another favorable race shape, and she's a threat to find the wire if she can repel the early pace challenges.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:13 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 KEENEYE GEORGE (7-2) ‘Moved’ wide through the turn in pair of sprints, stretches out.
#5 PHILIPIE FAST (2-1) Winless at 1M and 1-23 overall, but could take catching if he shakes rail rival.
#4 ARMAVEER (5-2) Can stalk and pounce at maiden-breaking distance, but offers little value.
Race Summary KEENEYE GEORGE raced wide in his two starts at this level after he was re-claimed and was no serious threat. But he should go well in this spot if he handles the transition for a barn that is 3-for-12 over the last month with the sprint-to-route angle. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 WEARENOTBADPEOPLE (5-1) Rallied 5-wide to run second, could change tactics in this spot.
#3 CHAMPS SUCCESS (6-1) Succumbed to duel, romped in prior try for a claiming tag at this distance.
#2 BARNFIELD (5-2) Ran scare into odds-on winner in his second start of the main track at one mile.
Race Summary WEARENOTBADPEOPLE followed the 4-wide move of the upset winner and ‘finished well’ for second at 6-1/2F. He can be closer to the pace in this field and save ground from the rail, making him worth a win and place bet. Also play a 1, 3 over 1,2,3,6 exacta.

Turf Paradise - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 LE TUB (9-2) Burned money in short sprints, projects ideal trip in bid to get back on winning track.
#8 STRADARI (3-1) Has speed, adds blinkers, takes class drop off the claim by Evans.
#2 NICE ICE (2-1) Loomed boldly but lost as fave in prior dirt sprint, race winner has been dull since.
Race Summary LE TUB was dismissed at 6-1 odds or less in seven of her last eight starts, managing only a third-place finish last out. But she has won twice at this longer sprint distance in her career and should get ample pace flow to launch a contending rally at a better price than normal. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:13 AM

Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #9 J Best Pleasure 8-1 A J Torres-Casas K Carbajal
2 #5 Departure 7-2 C Krasner D P Vergara
3 #4 Armaveer 5-2 C Ferguson K Lopez
4 #3 Last Renegade 2-1 J R Evans H Hernandez
5 #6 Red Venus 9-2 M J Vitali H Hernandez
6 #2 Barnfield 5-2 K A Person J L Zunino
7 #2 Nice Ice 2-1 B Brashears F H Da Silva
8 #5 The Golden Egg 2-1 C Essex D P Vergara

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:14 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sandy Ridge At The Red Mile
PURCHASE
Sandy Ridge At The Red Mile - Race 4

Win, Place, Show/Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)

Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 3:30P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RELOADED WITH CORONA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure a t the distance/surface. DASHING SHEETZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +2 0.
4
RELOADED WITH CORONA
8/5

9/5
6
DASHING SHEETZ
9/5

7/2

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
J V TWO
1

10/1
Slow
0

0

8.3

0.0

0.0
2
SILVER THE STORM
2

8/1
Slow
0

0

8.4

0.0

0.0
3
ZAN WAGON
3

4/1
Average/Trouble-prone
0

0

3.7

0.0

0.0
4
RELOADED WITH CORONA
4

8/5
Average
71

67

4.8

0.0

0.0
5
EYE ON THE PRICE
5

8/1
Slow
0

0

9.2

0.0

0.0
6
DASHING SHEETZ
6

9/5
Slow
63

63

6.5

0.0

0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:14 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 3

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Rolling Double 50 cent Rolling Pick 3 Races (3-4-5) 20 cent Buckeye Pick 6 (Races 3-8)-70% Carryover

Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 1:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 3. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DEBDURITE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DEBDURITE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KLAATU: Horse ranks in t he top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). GILES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Trac kMaster Power Rating.
1
DEBDURITE
3/1

3/1
4
KLAATU
12/1

5/1
6
GILES
5/2

10/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
KLAATU
4

12/1
Front-runner
90

83

85.0

73.6

64.1
1
DEBDURITE
1

3/1
Alternator/Front-runner
86

86

86.2

82.4

79.4
2
TAMANRASSETT
2

7/2
Stalker
84

73

77.6

73.8

66.8
3
KRAMDEN
3

9/2
Stalker
87

81

69.8

70.2

61.2
6
GILES
6

5/2
Trailer
86

87

72.6

81.2

77.2
7
ROSAS WAY
7

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
87

73

56.0

68.4

59.4
5
HOLY TRUTH
5

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

66

52.6

73.2

60.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 4:16pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,400 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 ROLINGA (ML=4/1)
#8 STRADARI (ML=3/1)

ROLINGA - The ROI when Valenzuela and Lucarelli get together is terrific. Was in a $4,000 Claiming race at Golden Gate Fields last out. That race had an Equibase class figure of 82 and she is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender. Look for this one to go all the way home at some decent odds in this event. Ran sixth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the wire. STRADARI - This animal didn't run well on a track listed as good in her last start at Turf Paradise. You should overlook that effort. I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this mare focus her attention on racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NICE ICE (ML=2/1), #7 LE TUB (ML=9/2), #3 CANTERBURY GOLD (ML=6/1),

NICE ICE - Hasn't been on the Turf Paradise oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. This animal hasn't shown much effort in the last couple affairs. LE TUB - Should be difficult for this mount to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list. CANTERBURY GOLD - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint affairs in order to back her. Earned a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last out in a $4,000 Claiming race on Mar 26th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 ROLINGA to win if you can get odds of 6/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:15 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8100 Class Rating: 66

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 18 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 3 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 CONTENTA Y RELAX 2/1

# 2 DERRUMBE 3/1

# 3 INOCENTA 7/2

CONTENTA Y RELAX looks to be a formidable contender. Could provide positive profits based on quite good recent Speed Figures with an average of 62. Must be carefully examined based on the solid speed figure garnered in the last race. Must be given a shot given the class of races run lately. DERRUMBE - Put up a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. INOCENTA - Will probably go to the front end and should never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:15 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Will Rogers Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 TIN BADGE (ML=5/1)
#5 MONET'S DEVIL (ML=5/2)
#1 GUNNER PAUL (ML=8/1)

TIN BADGE - As the only front-runner in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. Is ranked uppermost in (EPS) earnings per start. A powerful effort right here in this race can increase the lifetime earnings. MONET'S DEVIL - Martin must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Mar 13th and now goes for two in a row. Kimes and Martin perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +187 return on investment for a rider and conditioner. This gelding is in good physical condition. Finished first on Mar 13th. This gelding garnered a strong speed rating of 89 in his last clash. That speed figure should be lofty enough to win today. Horse has improved at least two speed rating points in last two races. I look for that trend to continue right here in this race. GUNNER PAUL - I think Will Rogers Downs players know a good thing when they see the jock/handler duo of Sanchez and Caldwell. Their win pct together has been strong. Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to his last affair at Will Rogers Downs where he ended up ninth in the slop. Should improve this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HERZEN (ML=2/1), #3 GINSBURNED (ML=3/1),

HERZEN - Today's contest is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last couple months. Not the best of omens. You figure that this animal is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't win often. When checking today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a much better rating than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint. GINSBURNED - Didn't finish in the money on Feb 25th at Oaklawn Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar effort. Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance events in order to back him. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this animal as a possibly overvalued contestant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 TIN BADGE to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-03-2023, 10:15 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $43000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 SECRET ALLIANCE 9/2

# 1 SIMOVITCH 3/1

# 3 MUTASALLEM 4/1

I've got to go with SECRET ALLIANCE. Should expect this equine to be right there at the wire versus these ponies. This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to play. With a reliable jockey who has won at a respectable 31 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. SIMOVITCH - Could best this group based on the speed figure - 78 - of his last affair. The average Equibase class figure of 78 makes this horse tough to beat. MUTASALLEM - This entrant has been constatntly running well recently. Has to be given consideration against this group displaying quite good numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 77 under similar conditions.