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Need-to-Know: April 17-23, 2023

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April 17, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Here’s how the upcoming racing week shakes out.

Monday:
Will Rogers Downs | $50,000 Wilma Mankiller Stakes
Featured Content | Al Cimaglia | Yonkers Pick 5 Video Analysis & Pick 4 Blog Analysis

Tuesday:
Promotion: 10X Tuesdays Wager Rewards Points | all bets, all tracks
Horseshoe Indianapolis | opening day
Will Rogers Downs: $50,000 Highland Ice Stakes
Featured Content | It’s Official Podcast with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk
Featured Content | Al Cimaglia | Harness Video Analysis

Wednesday:
Promotion | Bet $100 at Keeneland, Get $20 | details
Tournament | $40 Keeneland Feeder | details
Featured Content | Jon White | Derby Top 10

Thursday:
Tournament | $40 Keeneland Feeder | details
Featured Content | Frank Carulli’s Friday Laurel Pick 4 Analysis

Friday:
Keeneland: Grade 3 $300,000 Doubledogdare Stakes
Tournament | $40 Keeneland Feeder | details
Featured Content | Eddie Olczyk Hat Trick Best Bets for Saturday
Featured Content | First Call Podcast with Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk (Saturday Stakes Picks)
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know for Santa Anita

Saturday:
Tournament | $300 Kentucky Derby Challenge Qualifier | details
Santa Anita | Grade 2 $200,000 Californian Stakes and Grade 3 $100,000 Kona Gold Stakes
Laurel Park | 5 stakes ($100,000 each), preps for Preakness weekend events
Oaklawn | Grade 2 $1,000,000 Oaklawn Handicap
Keeneland | Grade 2 $350,000 Elkhorn Stakes & Grade 3 $250,000 Ben Ali Stakes
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know for Santa Anita

Sunday:
Santa Anita | $100,000 Siren Lure Stakes
Tournament | $40 Keeneland Feeder | details
Featured Content | Jeff Siegel – What You Need to Know for Santa Anita

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5

#8 Bodieful	She has had 10 chances already, but she is in decent enough form and should appreciate getting in with this softer group today. Capable.
#6 Lunarchy	She didn't show much when far back at 9/5 in the Hawthorne debut, but she drops in class out of that special weight spot, and it'd be no surprise to see her wake up at second asking.
#10 C C's World	She might have some room to move up while getting her feet back on the dirt and making the second start off the break, and something like her June try from last year at Mountaineer would likely be enough for a share.
Race Summary	Bodieful is not meeting a whole lot in here, and she has spent her career facing better company than she's about to find in this one. Thinking she'll land this one.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #0

#1 Isocline	He hasn't done a ton wrong through two Turfway starts, and I think he's coming out of an effort that might be a bit better than it looks at first glance on paper. Experience edge serves him well.
#4 Full Time Job	Considered this one on top and will definitely want to take a look at him on the tote and track ahead of the debut. Think the price is going to be plenty fair for a team that has landed one like this at a nice number before.
#6 Double Barrel	He's an obvious player for a top team, but the barn underperforms locally in these types of spots with a negative ROI, so over the long-term it's in our best interest to stand against this type.
Race Summary	This is by far the race I'm most looking forward on opening day, as I think a lot of these horses are interesting on paper. Isocline has a couple races under his belt at Turfway, and I think he can land this if he can transfer his form to the local footing.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #8

#1 Thedevilsalgorithm	He'll have to fire fresh while working out a trip from off the pace inside, but I really like that he fired a big shot off a similar layoff here last season, and he stacked up pretty well with open allowance company in that campaign.
#7 Bal a Kazoo	He's back off the bench while trying the main track for the first time, but he gets class relief out of stakes company at Colonial last summer and may not be quite as far off the best in here as the price might suggest. I'll be taking a long look.
#2 D'oro's Wish	Not going to argue too much about this guy off the bench, as his better running lines make him tough in here, and he proved a decent fit with similar in those last two starts of the season.
Race Summary	Thedevilsalgorithm was really good here off the bench last season, and his whole string of efforts here last year was pretty good with only a stakes blemish and that final start before the layoff as the dull runs. Think #12 A Few Too Many belongs on the deeper tickets, too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#1 CANTERBURY GOLD (9-2)	Pressed pace on fast strip, takes catching at proven distance.
#5 AINT SHE DARLIN (5-2)	Six-figure earner takes magnified class drop.
#2 MISCHIEF MAMA (7-2)	Useful 4-1/2F turn-up, alert start the key.
Race Summary	CANTERBURY GOLD dueled through torrid fractions with the odds-on favorite before the trip sitters passed by at 6-1/2F. The track played wicked fast that day; nevertheless, she could be long gone on the front end with a 7/2-2-0 main-track record at one mile. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#6 LOVELY LOLA (8-1)	Projects ideal trip at a good price in her second start off freshening.
#1 TECATE GOLD (4-1)	Broke maiden at 5-1/2F, overmatched in follow-up, sheds 6 pounds.
#4 PLUM ROSE (6-1)	Has loyal following, can stalk and pounce, Hernandez sticks.
Race Summary	LOVELY LOLA, pinched slightly at the start, settled in the back, sustained a 3-wide rally from the far turn and was turned back by the favorite at Rillito. She gets plenty of pace to rally into today and can upgrade to a victory. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#3 GLENDALE (4-1)	Found proper level, has most proven turf form and experience beyond 6F.
#1 BURNIN VERNON (12-1)	Someone liked his chances on the lawn, may awaken at big price.
#9 ALCAZABA (9-2)	Rallied for second in short sprint after 7 months away as first-time gelding.
Race Summary	Three entrants try turf for the first time and the others are a combined 16/0-2-3. GLENDALE has the best turf numbers from his 2-year-old campaign in California and he rallied 4-wide to finish second to the 2-to-5 favorite last out on the main track. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-9 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 7	Exacta / .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 3:48P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR IBF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LICHITA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating. SHEZ RECKLESS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MY MORNING GAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HELEN MAE'S SONG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	LICHITA	5/2	9/2
9	SHEZ RECKLESS	3/1	5/1
8	MY MORNING GAL	8/1	8/1
3	HELEN MAE'S SONG	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	HELEN MAE'S SONG	3	4/1	Front-runner	72	67	80.0	61.0	55.0
9	SHEZ RECKLESS	9	3/1	Front-runner	86	74	78.0	73.0	68.0
7	LICHITA	7	5/2	Front-runner	84	83	76.4	71.8	69.3
1	BOBBIE TOO TOO	1	15/1	Front-runner	66	52	74.8	52.8	40.8
2	ABBMAR	2	20/1	Front-runner	62	72	68.2	61.6	47.6
4	MISS WINDY SLEW	4	20/1	Front-runner	66	60	68.0	48.6	33.1
5	ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	70	46.6	66.0	56.0
8	MY MORNING GAL	8	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	67	50.8	65.8	59.3
6	WILDCAT BOBBIE	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	64	53.8	55.6	43.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 6	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 78 • Purse: $42,000 • Post: 2:59P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * OFFALY COOL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PRAETORIAN GUARD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BLUE ROYAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL EYES ON YOU: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layo ff, after two sprint prep races. JACKSON ROAD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
3	OFFALY COOL	6/1	5/1
2	PRAETORIAN GUARD	7/2	6/1
6	BLUE ROYAL	3/1	7/1
5	ALL EYES ON YOU	6/1	9/1
4	JACKSON ROAD	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ALTA FOX	1	9/2	Front-runner	56	61	77.9	56.2	44.7
5	ALL EYES ON YOU	5	6/1	Front-runner	73	74	72.8	72.8	65.3
6	BLUE ROYAL	6	3/1	Front-runner	78	76	71.6	69.7	63.7
3	OFFALY COOL	3	6/1	Front-runner	76	68	65.8	76.9	71.4
7	PROFESSOR KOOL	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	75	72.0	12.3	1.8
4	JACKSON ROAD	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	70	63.4	63.9	57.4
2	PRAETORIAN GUARD	2	7/2	Trailer	80	75	57.8	70.2	62.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 81

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BOOTDADDY JUSTICE 7/5
# 1 DOUBLE TUFF 1/1
# 4 GOOD SUGAR 12/1

BOOTDADDY JUSTICE appears to be the wager in here. Expect a speed boost today from this pony going on blinkers. Jockey's recent return on investment numbers make this gelding a strong wager. Should be given consideration - I like the figs from the last race. DOUBLE TUFF - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 78 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race. Garnered a formidable speed figure last time out. GOOD SUGAR - Expect a sound outing with the class drop. With a sound 74 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:49pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#6 LOVELY LOLA (ML=8/1)
#1 TECATE GOLD (ML=4/1)


LOVELY LOLA - After the race aboard this horse on April 2nd, the jockey is going to be in tune with the filly much better. A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a solid outing is a good sign. TECATE GOLD - Getting a break of 6 lbs from last race at Rillito Park. She should make the most of this advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HER PERFECT VISION (ML=3/1), #5 LILY PAD LAKE (ML=5/1), #4 PLUM ROSE (ML=6/1),

HER PERFECT VISION - Finished sixth last time. Would have to move up to be there at the wire today. You should normally bet against morning-line favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. LILY PAD LAKE - Nice race on Mar 25th at Rillito Park, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried. PLUM ROSE - This filly registered a speed rating in her last race which likely isn't good enough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 LOVELY LOLA to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,400 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#3 SWEET BAKER (ML=5/1)
#9 LOVE MY RIDE (ML=4/1)


SWEET BAKER - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Using this jockey/conditioner combination is a smart move. I have to like this gelding's chances of winning at the shorter distance. LOVE MY RIDE - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Chleborad. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Last raced at Remington Park in a race with a class figure of 83. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure this time puts him in a solid position in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CANONIZE (ML=7/2), #7 TRISTANS JOURNEY (ML=5/1), #4 WELDON G (ML=6/1),

CANONIZE - I find it hard to wager on any horse in a sprint event at 7/2 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last two months. TRISTANS JOURNEY - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. WELDON G - Nice race on Mar 14th at Will Rogers Downs, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 SWEET BAKER to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR IBF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SHEZ RECKLESS 3/1
# 7 LICHITA 5/2
# 3 HELEN MAE'S SONG 4/1

SHEZ RECKLESS is the best wager in this race. Conditioner boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface. The speed fig of 74 from her latest contest looks formidable in here. Martinez has this filly racing well and is a decent pick based on the very good speed figures earned in sprint races recently. LICHITA - Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of horses in this race. Has been consistently racing well lately. HELEN MAE'S SONG - Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (76 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Watkins has one of the top winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface.