Friday 4/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:39 AM

Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Switch to turf should benefit Father of Lies
Posted on April 20, 2023 by David Aragona

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 5:38 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs

I’ll be interested to see if the also eligible entrant Little Skippy (#11) draws into this affair. If he gets one defection and makes the race, he is one that figures to pull some support. He faced better company in both prior turf starts at Gulfstream and put in decent efforts on each occasion. However, he would be saddled with a disadvantageous post position and I think there are some other more interesting options in this field.

In the main body of the field, Old Point (#6) could take some money on the switch to grass. However, he’s not the kind of first time turfer I want. He really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass despite being out of a British-bred mare. It’s more of a dirt family overall, and he might just lack the speed to compete at this 6-furlong distance.

Among the experienced options, I’d be more interested in Nieuwendyk (#7). He made just one start on turf in his career debut last summer, and didn’t run that badly. He contested a pace that came apart and stayed on pretty well for fifth. He has plenty of grass pedigree, and may be ready to put forth a better effort on this surface now that he’s had more experience and time to mature.

My top pick is FATHER OF LIES (#1), who is another horse trying grass for the first time. I find it encouraging that this horse showed good speed on debut before fading on the dirt, so he should be able to get forward position from this rail draw as he switches over to turf. Daredevil’s progeny have won 19% of their turf sprint starts. The dam was a synthetic specialist and she has produced a 3-time turf sprint winner. This horse moves like one that should take to this surface, and I think it’s encouraging that Javier Castellano takes the mount for a trainer who often names live riders on his live horses.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:40 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/21/23

April 21, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Landsdowne; 5-Beaudacious
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: The Friday opener is a $32,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming turf sprint without a whole lot in it. In a race he had a right to need, Landsdowne was outfooted when a non-threatening fourth in a quick abbreviated dash at this level last month as the favorite. He gets an extra half furlong to work with today, and this will be his second start off a 10 month layoff, so he has every right to improve, but the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding hardly is one to trust. The fact that top rider Juan Hernandez jumps off to ride Franklin Star isn’t encouraging. Beaudacious, third in the same race that Landsdowne just finished fourth in, should appreciate today’s softer projected pace, and seems likely to have every chance from a stalking/prompting early position. The lightly raced six-year-old has numbers that fit and has run well over this course and distance in the past. Franklin One Star makes his second start off a layoff (the barn has strong stats with this angle) and takes a realistic class drop while likely to be on or near the lead from his rail draw. With a steady, healthy series of workouts since raced, the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding appears primed for a major effort. All three should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that must be handled with care.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): American Conquest; 4-Hot Rod Mama
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: American Conquest drops to the bottom rung ($20,000) maiden claiming level, picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez, and may have found her friends in this woefully weak main track miler. The Peter Miller-trained filly exits an infinitely tougher first-level allowance race that was taken off the turf and was completely out of her element, but against this group the daughter of Finnegans Wake should be quite competitive. Hot Rod Mama, in the frame in her last pair at this level, isn’t fast on figures but at least her numbers are moving in the right direction. By default, she is the one to beat. We suggest you tread lightly in another race that gets a “C” rating.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:56 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Irish Patsy; 2-Soul of a Warrior
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: The two main players in this maiden $50,000 turf sprint for older fillies and mares are drawn inside, and with the rails out at 30 feet the lower lanes are the best place to be. Irish Patsy takes the always dangerous maiden to maiden claiming class drop, picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez, and should have every chance to earn her diploma with a projected ground saving trip. She earned a speed figure two races back over this course and distance when finishing fifth that puts her right there. Let’s put the daughter of Street Boss on top while also including the highly logical Soul of a Warrior, who was far back in an infinitely tougher turf miler last time out but a solid runner-up under these conditions two races back. The Declaration of War filly may be the quickest in the field, so if she can shake loose early she could get very brave.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Pequena Tormenta
Backups/Savers: 6-Awesome Taylor.

Forecast: Pequena Tormenta has been away since last summer but returns protected in a sign of confidence by new trainer Jeff Mullins and shows a bullet :58 1/5 workout five days ago to have her primed and ready. The barn’s “go-to” rider Hector Berrios gets the call on the daughter of Dialed In, who has won over this track in the past and has the ideal pace-stalking style that works best at this seven furlong trip. Also worth noting is that she won here last year off a similar layoff, so we know she can fire fresh. Awesome Taylor is worth including, at least as a saver. Back on her preferred surface (dirt), the Classic Empire filly is another ideally suited for this extended sprint distance and is a fit on numbers. She goes for an underrated barn and recently worked five furlongs from the gate in :59 1/5 to have her cranked and ready.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Stan From Malibu
Backups/savers: 7-Chrome to Riches.

Forecast: Stan From Malibu shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and appears primed for significant improvement in this turf miler for state-bred maidens. His Beyer speed figure improved 18 points in his second outing and a sharp :46 3/5 half mile workout (second fastest of 116) last Sunday provides further evidence that another forward move is likely. The barn has a second entrant in the field, Chrome to Riches, who also produced significant improvement in his second start when finishing fourth over this course and distance last month. The son of California Chrome will be running on late, and with some help up front could at least get a piece of it. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Con Seal and Kerry; 4-Secret Hello
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: In a split of the second race, Con Seal and Kerry is quite intriguing. She shows the first-time routing, blinkers off, and turf-to-dirt angles that always catch the eye and certainly is bred to run long (Gun Runner x A. P. Indy). Adding fuel to the fire, the Steve Knapp barn has solid stats with stretch-out runners. Sweet Hello remains a major contender in her ninth career start, though as a beaten favorite in three of her last four starts she’s hardly one to trust. The daughter of Danzing Candy, in the frame in her last five outings with rising (if not particularly fast) speed figures, should settle into a stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Boss Sully; 5-Old Pal
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Boss Sully was visually quite pleasing when graduating in his second career start sprinting over the local lawn last month, doing so with a solid speed figure while giving every indication that added distance should be within his wheelhouse. The California-bred son of Street Boss probably didn’t have a whole lot behind him but did it the right way and appears capable of winning on the raise at this one mile trip. Old Pal is the logical favorite and one to beat following a convincing maiden tally over this course and distance in his second career start last month. The son of Grazen can really turn it on late and the strong 78 Beyer speed figure he recently earned bodes well for the future. We’ll give Boss Sully a slight edge on top (he’ll be the better price) while including both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-My Harbors Dream 8-Octopus
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Anything goes in these bottom-of-the-barrel $10,000 claiming sprints for older horses, but we’ll be somewhat surprised if the winner isn’t one of the two listed above. My Harbors Dream is a significant class dropper that should be highly competitive in this league. Although unplaced in his last four starts (when facing much tougher company), his race four back against restricted (nw-3) $20,000 foes in January charts very well against this group and his recent (buried) numbers make him better than the lines might suggests. Octopus, in his first off a $12,500 claim by Peter Eurton, also is dropping to his lowest level ever and seems well-placed to regain his best form. He’s a four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track (though just 1-for-9 overall in the last two years) and has recent speed figures that are good enough to make him dangerous.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): Bella Baby; 8-Mygalsdawnnlori; Map to My Heart
Backups/savers: Miss Joannie

Forecast:Here’s another raffle, a maiden ($50,000) claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares. Bella Baby is nothing more than an educated guess, having done all of her preparatory work at San Luis Rey Downs, but she is bred to be quick (Maclean’s Music), lands top rider Juan Hernandez, shows some decent recent morning activity, and hails from an outfit that usually is quite realistically with its stock. In a race in which the known element doesn’t inspire, let’s put her on top. Mygalsdawnnlori shows the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle and a speed figure over this course and distance two races back that makes her a fit, so we’ll consider her a “must use.” She’s also shortening up from a speed/fade effort over a distance of ground, so if nothing else she should be plenty fit. Map to My Heart is a second-off-a-layoff play after displaying speed before weakening in a similar affair earlier this meeting. She should stick better today, so we’ll toss her in. Miss Joannie, a fair fourth in her debut, adds blinkers, tries grass (bred for it), and has a right to produce a forward move at a decent price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

April 21, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo begins the weekend with an 8-race card featuring California Sires Stakes action. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 5. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

1-Mystery Dragon (5-1)-Drops into a good spot to pick up a win and doesn't need to go gate to wire. Kennedy gets the call and should be forwardly placed throughout.
7-Unfiltered (5/2)-The Schneider trainee should also like the company. Mullet could have the pedal down and be there at the wire with a smooth trip.

Race 6

3-Polar Storm (2-1)-Comes off a nice effort to down everyone in this field except #2. That was a strong try and this was Plano's choice over #1 as Thayer is not driving tonight. Versatile 3-year-old is a main player.
6-Lukes Proclamation (7/2)-Couldn't catch the leaders in last and finished a distant 3rd. Will look for a rebound and has the gate speed to get a close-up seat. Did miss a start before the last race and comes back in sequence this time.

Race 7

3-Pancetta (9/5)-Comes off a dominating win and raced better than I expected. This will be a bigger test, should be bet again and looks ready for the challenge.
5-Frewil Dakota Sven (3/1)-Drops, gets Kennedy between the pipes and that could make a considerable difference. Pulled last week and came 1st over against a 2-1 winner who just stole a quarter. That plan failed, this is a better level and will look for an improved effort. Might be overlooked at the windows.

Race 8

3-Shes A Live Wire (7/5)-This mare has won 5 of the last 33 and has 3 pictures in 22 races at CalX but versus this crew, she is 7/5 in the morning line. Has been facing better, so will swallow the short price and use but will hope for the one below.
6-Rockin N Rollin (8-1)-Saying this 6-year-old is camera shy is an understatement, has 1 picture in the last 46 races. But has hit the board in 4 of 10 this year and had a brutal trip in the last start. Raced first over for 3/4 of a mile and then dropped anchor. They went to the 3/4's in 1.25 and now gets a ++ driver change in Kennedy. The short field should help, has enough speed to win and the trip should be much better.

0.20 Pick 4

1,7/3,6/3,5/3,6
Total Bet=$3.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:40 AM

Laurel Park Pick 4 Analysis: Friday, April 21

April 21, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
With 39 entrants spanning four races and distances, Laurel Park’s 50-cent Late Pick 4 this Friday, April 21, won’t be easy to hit, but it will be rewarding for those who hold winning tickets. Here’s a closer look:

LRL 6th Race (3:00 EST) -- NICOLAR followed the 4-wide move of favorite DOWNTOWN KATIE and prevailed in a one-mile turf allowance when both were last seen in November. FRIVOLE finished second in 3 of her last 4 starts in France, two in grass routes, three in photo-finishes and three from post 11 outward. INANNA’S QUEST, patiently handled while the favorite opened a 15-plus length lead, inhaled rivals on the final turn and held safe at 1-3/8-miles for her fifth victory in 14 starts on the lawn. If the race comes off the turf, add both main-track-only entrants FRECCIA D’ARGENTO and MISTY MAUVE to the ticket.

LRL 7th Race (3:31 EST) -- FREE SQUARE dueled inside the drifting favorite on the turn and gamely held second at 7F. He finished 2 lengths in front of No More Talk (12-80, $420k), who came back to win a $20,000 claiming sprint at Aqueduct. He returns to her best distance off a :47.2 bullet workout over the track. SPOTTED BULL sat a good trip when he edged away from Free Square, but a similar journey could be in store as he cuts back with proven 6F form.

LRL 8th Race (4:02 EST) -- COVER THE SPREAD ‘gathered momentum’ on the turn but settled for third behind multiple stakes-placed Crypto Mama and loose leader Miss Fussy Pants in her second start as a 3-year-old. She finished a length in front of Balpool, who came back with an 83 Beyer in a 9-1/2-length allowance romp at Aqueduct. DEVIL PAYS IN GOLD sat a good trip and rallied wide to finish second at 7F, now the daughter of Grade I-placed router Uncle Lino (8/2-2-2, $316k) goes long for a hot barn. MYSTIC SEAPORT, one of five stretch-out sprinters in the race, is a longshot to consider in the projected lead role.

LRL 9th Race (4:33 EST) -- S. MUFFIN carried his speed into the stretch but got caught in three consecutive turf sprints last summer, twice by the favorite. He has since been gelded and gets blinkers in his first start for Russell, who is 31 percent with new acquisitions but 0-for-15 in the last year with first-time turf sprinters. TAKE CHARGE TOO led at the half-mile mark in 8 of his last 9 starts but didn’t win any. He ran his best race last out, dueling with a 2-1 first-time starter and settling for second best. He might need to find a passing gear in his first try on the lawn. NOT NORMAL couldn’t overcome a bumpy start in his fall debut at Gulfstream Park that produced a stakes winner and runner-up. He makes his turf debut and gets Lasix off a series of fast workouts at Penn National for new connections. If the pace collapses, first-time starter CAROLINA HIDEAWAY could be heard from if he follows the lead of his dam, Carolina Shag, an off-the-pace, allowance-caliber grass sprinter.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

LRL 6th Race: 1, 6, 8, 12
LRL 7th Race: 2, 4
LRL 8th Race: 4, 5, 7
LRL 9th Race: 2, 4, 7, 10

Cost: $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:41 AM

Lift Ticket: Picks, Promos for Oaklawn Race 3

April 20, 2023 | By Brian Spencer
Friday, April 21, 2023
Oaklawn Race 3

Get up to a $10 money-back special if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet this special Lift Ticket race with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet. To provide an extra Lift, we've got the 1/ST BET artificial intelligence picks for this race along with Xpressbet handicapper Brian W. Spencer's analysis and selections.

Handicapper: 1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence

#1 One More Laugh (31%)
#3 Midsummer Soiree (19%)
#7 Candy Caramel (13%)

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Handicapper: Brian W. Spencer

#6 Biogenic Babe
She drops off a flat first start with winners, but I'm not as concerned on the drop based on the fact that she has already run for tags recently. She's fast enough to find a first-over trip while letting the more committed pace players go at it early.

#1 One More Laugh
She makes some sense in here as she goes for the new team off the easy graduation run last out in New Orleans, but I do worry that there might be just enough other pace lined up to make her work for it the whole way from the fence.

#7 Candy Caramel
She's a bit more reliable than a first glance at her form might suggest, and she beat the top choice in $50,000 maiden company a couple starts back. Worry that she's along too late.

Brian’s Notes: Biogenic Babe gets a good draw for her style in here, as she's quick enough to stay close early on but doesn't have to get caught in any battle that might develop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:41 AM

Jeremy Plonk: $859K Keeneland Pick 6 Carryover Analysis | Friday

April 20, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
It’s a mega-carryover Friday in the $1 minimum pick 6 at Keeneland with $859,584 already in the pool. Expect another $2 million or more in fresh money when the sequence begins in Race 5. The pick 6 was not hit on Thursday despite 3 winning favorites; a lone, 17-1 upset in Race 8 left players empty.

Let’s get to work.

Keeneland | Race 5
Allowance turf sprinters provide an instant challenge to advancing, and the final status of also-eligible #13 Red Hot Rod for king of the turf sprints Wesley Ward is crucial to how many you’ll include. #3 Cadamosto, #4 Gregory’s Pride, #5 True Jedi, #6 Trust Daddy and #7 High Front are all beautifully drawn, fit on form and include some of the best turf sprint jockeys in the colony. I’ll want to include each of these.

Keeneland | Race 6
Early speed has dominated the main track through the first 9 days of the Spring Meet and this starter allowance sprint looks ripe to be taken up top. #1 Morning Cup may be lone speed in a field lacking for it and expect aggressive Irad Ortiz Jr. to assert from the start if he can. #4 Appeal Denied could be next-quickest early and comes off a career-best race. This looks like the clearest single of the sequence.

Keeneland | Race 7
A series of viable first-time starters dot this maiden special weight sprint on dirt. #1 Coppa Girl for Brad Cox and #6 Sassy Walker for Phil D’Amato both have worked with ability for elite-level barns, while #2 Truly Grateful debuts with Irad Ortiz Jr. up and 4 months of works potentially toward this. They join experienced runners #9 Shesasmalltowngirl, #8 Check Engine Light and #5 Magical Lute as practical inclusions in a race that offers no significant separation among these. Like Race 5, this appears to be a spot to utilize a chunk of your budget.

Keeneland | Race 8
This fascinating turf route allowance re-matches The Curragh’s Group 3 Fillies Stakes 1-3 finishers from last August, #3 Viareggio and #1 Juncture. Both will run on Lasix for the first time, and it’s notable that Brad Cox (Juncture) hits a wild 38% winners with L1 runners, while Brendan Walsh (Viareggio) is a good, but less remarkable 20% winner with these types. #7 Fancy Martini has run well over the course; #2 Fast as Flight gets a significant post position upgraded from her last bid at Gulfstream, an always important last destination for these Kee spring turf allowances; and #6 Bipartisanship should be an overlay price and late factor for a respected jockey-trainer. It’s a single-or-spread kind of feeling to me, and if I’m not singling #1 Juncture, then I’m opening up a big budget headache.

Keeneland | Race 9
The Grade 3 $300,000 Doubledogdare Stakes very well runs through #4 Interstatedaydream (pun intended). Trainer Cox is a bonkers 31% in Keeneland 1-1/16 miles races on dirt as his runners just excel off the turn, rebreak in upper stretch and enjoy that finish line at the sixteenth pole in these races. Cox won this race in 2021 with Bonny South, but expect this edition to be attacked from the front of the pack. Speed has been good all meet on the main, so there will be company seeking the same spot. #2 Green Up has speed and fires fresh off the bench for Todd Pletcher. There’s other big-barn influence with Bill Moo-trained Frost Point in career form. Mott’s son, Riley, gets on the big stage with Traverse, and don’t overlook the quality sophomore from last year, Hidden Connection. Cox already has 4 stakes wins at the meet, his filly has speed and a good third over the track last year in the Ashland, the Doubledogdare Stakes has historically been very formful since the return to dirt. No stretch to single here, but not a certainty.

Keeneland | Race 10
Thursday’s pick 6 heartbreak ending with potential $400K-plus payoffs running second and third a three-horse photo. What’s crazy is the winner was the post-time favorite and not covered. Friday’s finale could come down to another melee late. #9 Our Dream Rye’d has run well here in the past and comes off a stakes try at Gulfstream for hot Spring Meet barn Ian Wilkes. Under late-rallying Joel Rosario, he’ll be heard from late. So, too, will Battle of Normandy under Irad Ortiz Jr. His trainer Shug McGaughey already has 3 turf wins at the meet. But the one that intrigues most in this 1-1/8 miles test is impeccably bred grass router #6 Roja Redemption. By Flintshire out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, he should absolutely relish this trip more than his two prior starts going shorter on synthetic at Turfway. Feel good with this trio.

Three singles may seem crazy, but it’s Irad on potential lone speed, Brad Cox with an L1 import coming out of Group stakes into allowance company and the likely Cox favorite in the stakes race. Three favorites Thursday still resulted in a carryover, after all, so we’re looking to catch some bingo in one or two of the other three legs.

The Ticket
3,4,6,5,7,13 with 1 with 1,6,9,8,5,2 with 1 with 1 with 6,5,9 = $108 ($90 without the AE in Leg A)
Budget players: Given we’re already brazen with three singles, trimming the deep races of a few contenders listed last would be the recommendation.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #3

#6 Biogenic Babe	She drops off a flat first start with winners, but I'm not as concerned on the drop based on the fact that she has already run for tags recently. She's fast enough to find a first-over trip while letting the more committed pace players go at it early.
#1 One More Laugh	She makes some sense in here as she goes for the new team off the easy graduation run last out in New Orleans, but I do worry that there might be just enough other pace lined up to make her work for it the whole way from the fence.
#7 Candy Caramel	She's a bit more reliable than a first glance at her form might suggest, and she beat the top choice in $50,000 maiden company a couple starts back. Worry that she's along too late.
Race Summary	Biogenic Babe gets a good draw for her style in here, as she's quick enough to stay close early on but doesn't have to get caught in any battle that might develop.

Oaklawn Park - Race #4

#8 My Uncle Leon	I like the way he moved forward in that second start back off the bench, and I think he's in with a sneaky chance if he has even a small step more to take in the right direction here. Perfect draw to prompt with blinkers?
#2 Patton's War	He turned in a solid debut try when battling the whole way, and he can hit hard in here with any kind of move forward in this second start. Wouldn't surprise, but the barn underperforms locally with maiden sprinters, so I'd want a similar price as last time to consider it.
#7 Runaway Jack	He has proven to be a pretty honest type through four races, and he already owns a couple running lines that would make him a handful with these. Still, he's sitting on four straight runner-up efforts, and that starts to be a bit of a concern -- especially if the price gets short.
Race Summary	My Uncle Leon is among the most interesting possibilities on the program for me, as I think his most recent try is right in line with the best in here, and he might offer a mid-range price in a spot with a few other runners who almost have to take some cash.

Oaklawn Park - Race #9

#4 Betty Jo	She might end up as the second choice in here, and she's a really good fit while dropping back to this level after a fading stakes try at 25/1. Think she's tactical enough to work this out.
#8 Chai Tea	Dropper owns plenty of tries that would be tough with this kind, but I worry that her style will leave her with too much work to do late to reel in the top choice who should get the jump.
#9 Kitiara	This is a really reasonable spot for her to return with winners off the debut score, and that race already came back okay when today's rail runner graduated next out. Should be in the right spot to have every chance.
Race Summary	#14 Unbearable is a must-use at a price on plays for me if she draws in, and #11 Mo Silver has a little appeal on the rise if the price is right with a pressing trip waiting for her. Betty Jo might be the right one to handle the likely chalk in the main body.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:43 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #3

#2 MOMMA MOCCA (3-1)	Should sit ideal stalking trip with second-time Lasix in Pick 6 opener.
#6 TEN THE SMART WAY (2-1)	Led at stretch call in 6 of last 10 starts, takes some catching in here.
#7 TWILIGHT EMPIRE (8-1)	Swung wide mid-turn, edged away from loose leader in stretch.
Race Summary	MOMMA MOCCA took back farther than usual, rallied into slow fractions and finished third in a longer route race. She gets second-time Lasix and more pace flow at a distance at which she’s 2-for-4. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #6
[TABLE]
[TR]
[TH]Picks[/TH]
[TH]Notes[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#4 MARILYN’S SMILE (6-1)[/TD]
[TD]Packs late kick, needs some pace flow, hasn’t been on turf in a long time.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#3 THE GREAT HAYNES (5-2)[/TD]
[TD]‘Closed fast’ for second, third start of cycle for solid dirt-to-turf barn. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#1 QUEEN MOLOTOV (7-2)[/TD]
[TD]Wilted under pressure at

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Keeneland

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race 2	Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3 -Pick 4 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)
Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 1:32P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * PATROLMAN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. MAGNIFICUS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PRESIDER: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the work out time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. BARRELHOUSE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
10	PATROLMAN	3/1	5/1
1	MAGNIFICUS	6/1	6/1
3	PRESIDER	9/2	7/1
8	BARRELHOUSE	15/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	BARRELHOUSE	8	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	74	65	89.4	71.1	59.1
4	APOLLO RISING	4	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	80	79	73.0	73.0	56.5
5	MY SPIRIT	5	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	71.1	44.6	32.1
10	PATROLMAN	10	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	79	70.6	71.6	63.1
3	PRESIDER	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	88	83	69.6	68.1	56.1
6	LAZARUS	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	41.7	67.3	58.3
9	RUSH CENTER	9	4/1	Trailer	0	0	69.2	69.2	60.2
1	MAGNIFICUS	1	6/1	Trailer	89	76	62.5	70.4	63.4
7	KANSAS COMET	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	78	87.2	45.5	35.0
2	DESERT HIGHWAY	2	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	65.4	66.4	51.4
11	BOCO	11	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	58.2	61.5	44.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate FieldsPURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double/ $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $0.50 Late Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Optional Claiming $62,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 3:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $50,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. LONG LANCE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LONG LANCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HARMON: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JIMMY BLUE JEANS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KENNEBEC: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quar ter Horse race).
4	LONG LANCE	5/2	4/1
5	HARMON	10/1	6/1
2	JIMMY BLUE JEANS	9/5	7/1
3	KENNEBEC	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JIMMY BLUE JEANS	2	9/5	Front-runner	108	95	88.3	93.1	87.1
5	HARMON	5	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	106	101	76.9	90.3	86.8
4	LONG LANCE	4	5/2	Stalker	107	97	89.6	96.1	92.1
3	KENNEBEC	3	6/1	Trailer	99	99	75.8	96.6	87.6
6	SHOTGUN EXPRESS (IRE)	6	4/1	Trailer	98	99	68.6	85.0	77.0
1	RIMPROTECTOR	1	5/1	Trailer	97	97	62.0	85.2	74.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:32pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,300 Class Rating: 48

Rating:

#5 WAGER WORTHY (ML=3/1)
#6 I SHALLBE RELEASED (ML=4/1)
#3 A BLONDE THING (ML=12/1)

WAGER WORTHY - Took a drop in class in the last race, and keeps in that lower class level in this event. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. I SHALLBE RELEASED - I am keen on that recent effort on April 7th at Charles Town where she ran second. This thoroughbred collects a lot of dough per race around the track. I believe she can increase that total right here. A BLONDE THING - This jock and trainer have a lucrative ROI when they work together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 APPEALING ROAD (ML=2/1), #4 ALLI BOBBY (ML=5/2),

APPEALING ROAD - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. ALLI BOBBY - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings. The Brain tells me to stay away from ponies in sprint events that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs of late. Improbable that the rating she earned on March 4th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 WAGER WORTHY on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 79

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 AJ HOT FOR RUM 4/1
# 6 EYEM ONN FIRE 5/1
# 7 APOCALIPSIS V 3/1

My selection for this event is AJ HOT FOR RUM. She must be given a shot given the respectable speed figures. Garnered a competitive speed figure last time out. Has performed solidly as of late in short races, posting a nifty 76 avg Equibase Speed Figure. EYEM ONN FIRE - He looks decent in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. With a nice class figure average of 80, has one of the best class advantages in this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:45 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Hour Wagers - Race #1 - Post: 4:30pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#10 MY DOMINATOR (ML=5/1)
#7 MIGHTY MATT (ML=6/1)
#11 AFTERNOON HEAT (ML=12/1)
#5 VICENTE'S SHADOW (ML=10/1)

MY DOMINATOR - I'm counting on this race horse to run a big race this time out. MIGHTY MATT - The rider and trainer combination have a positive ROI when they work together. AFTERNOON HEAT - The jockey and conditioner combination have a favorable ROI when they partner up. VICENTE'S SHADOW - This horse looks like a potential overlay in today's race at morning odds of 10/1. Finished fourth in last race at Santa Anita but was close at the wire. The improved speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. Stevens drops him in this event in shape and ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MY HARBORS DREAM (ML=7/2), #6 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL (ML=4/1), #8 OCTOPUS (ML=4/1),

MY HARBORS DREAM - Awfully difficult to wager on this pony when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness lately. MIDNIGHT SPECIAL - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the questionable contenders list. OCTOPUS - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races of late. Not likely to see him doing it this time out either. This mount hasn't been near the winner at the wire lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#10 MY DOMINATOR is the play if we get odds of 5/1 or better

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-21-2023, 06:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CATALINA EXPRESS 2/1
# 4 FALK 3/1
# 5 CRUISING DEREK 5/2

I think CATALINA EXPRESS is a competitive choice. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 63 speed rating which is one of the most favorable in this group of horses. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Fisher has a solid win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. FALK - With one of the most respectable jocks in terms of returns at the window, don't count this gelding out. Has to be given consideration based on the formidable speed figure garnered in the last contest. CRUISING DEREK - Has very good early speed and will almost certainly fare soundly against this group. With a competitive 69 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this affair.