Saturday 4/22/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:28 AM

Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: No Regard finally gets to go long on turf
Posted on April 21, 2023 by David Aragona

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 4:00 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs

There’s plenty of guesswork to be done with horses trying turf for the first time in this $40k maiden claimer for New York-breds. Christophe Clement sends out a pair of runners, of which Myles (#9) could attract more support. This 4-year-old gelding didn’t do much running in his career debut, but that was on the dirt and he has much more of a turf pedigree. He’s by good grass influence Creative Cause and is out of a 3-time turf winning dam who produced nice turf runner Quiet Out East. I don’t expect him to be any kind of big price, but he’s a contender.

I also think the horse drawn directly to his outside is a little interesting. October Bliss (#10) is by Destin, who hasn’t had any success as a turf sire just yet. However, there’s plenty of pedigree on the dam’s side. Second dam May Night was a multiple Grade 2 placed turf performer, and the dam is a half-sister to G2 Bowling Green winner Red Rifle.

Another horse trying grass for the first time who seems like a candidate to improve over it is Volcker Rules (#7). David Donk has had success in races like this at Aqueduct over the years, and this colt has some pedigree deep in his female family that suggests turf inclination. His dam is by Data Link and is produced from the same family as good turf horses like Doswell and Secretary At War.

My top pick is a horse who actually has some turf experience, though he didn’t make much of an impression in that lone grass start. No Regard (#1) was a little chilly on the board when he debuted last year and never really got involved after racing sluggishly in the early stages. Yet he gave off the vibes of one who might want more ground that day. He subsequently showed some affinity for going longer at this level on dirt in November before heading to the sidelines. Now he returns in a proper spot, routing on turf, while also going out as a new gelding. I find it encouraging that John Terranova gives the mount to Samy Camacho, with whom he has had success at Tampa.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:30 AM

KRISTPICKS

AQUEDUCT RACETRACK - SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2023 // POST TIME - 1:20 P.M. EST

- DAILY SELECTIONS FOR APRIL 22 -

RACE 1: 11 - MARY KATHERINE 12-1
6 - NUANCE 6-1
3 - DANCE WITH ME BABE 6-1

RACE 2: 7 - RIDE UP 9-2
2 - HUNTINGTON 12-1
3 - BALANTYNE 7-2

RACE 3: 6 - NEURAL NETWORK 5-2
4 - BELOUNI 9-5
1 - REGAL KINGDOM 8-1

RACE 4: 3 - HARLAN'S BOND 30-1
12 - ROYAL DANCER 5-1
10 - SIKUM 15-1

RACE 5: 8 - LOHENGRIN TWO 3-1
3 - BRACIOLE 9-2
2 - TWO FOR CHARGING 3-1

RACE 6: 6 - AULA 8-1
9 - MYLES 4-1
5 - OVER THE CAP 6-1

RACE 7: 6 - MAURITIUS 12-1 - LONGSHOT
3 - SPLENDID SUMMER 7-2
9 - MORE THAN WORK 7-5

RACE 8: 8 - COACH PITINO 15-1
3 - LIFETIME OF CHANCE 9-5
1 - EAST COAST GIRL 9-2

RACE 9: 8 - CUPIDS GIRL 6-1 - BEST BET
4 - ASSET PURCHASE 7-5
1 - STERLING SILVER 2-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:30 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/22/23

April 22, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Phenom
Backups/savers: 7-Shared Future

Forecast: Phenom always is suspect under pressure in the final furlong but when she can sneak away on the front end without being pressed early the Phil D’Amato-trained filly usually runs well, as she did in her gate-to-wire maiden win sprinting at Del Mar three races back. Freshened since mid-February and stretching out again to a mile, the daughter of Midnight Storm surely will have the front end to herself. She was run down late in both of her two prior route attempts and maybe the same results awaits, but in a race lacking in effective closers she might be able to hang on against this group. Shared Future is unproven on turf but has the ability to produce a decent late kick if given a patient ride and may be the most dangerous of the late runners. A four time winner with solid speed figures for the level, the daughter of Twirling Candy would seem to be better than her morning line of 8-1 gives her credit for. In a race in which nothing would surprise, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Bonita Leona; 1-A Broken Breeze
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Bonita Leona toyed with restricted (nw-3) $20,000 foes over this track and distance last month and with that condition no longer available she is realistically spotted in this open company $10,000 seller. The daughter of Smiling Tiger should be prominent throughout – perhaps even on the lead – and based on speed figures the Steve Knapp-trained filly should be capable of winning right back. A Broken Breeze was sharp in victory two races back at this level but then was flat as a pancake when a dull fourth at odds-on in her most recent outing when raised a notch to $12,500. Freshened for two months, she returns to the bottom, lands the good rail, and is likely to bounce back with her best effort. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Apple Warrior; 6-Rhythem On Stage
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Though he has trained like nothing special, Apple Warrior may have found a field he can handle at first asking in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred runners that came up unusually weak. The John Sadler-trained colt is bred for speed and sports a work tab that should have him plenty fit, so in the absence of a viable alternative and with top rider Juan Hernandez taking the call, he seems as good as any. Rhythem On Stage has a race three back that probably would beat this field, but two subsequent outings were disappointing. On the chance that he shows up with his best stuff today, the Carla Gaines-trained gelding is worth including somewhere on your ticket. Tread lightly here.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): In Vronsky Style; 7-Exceed Speed Limit
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: After being worn down late to miss by a head in a similar turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred runners, In Vronsky Style really shouldn’t miss this opportunity over the same course and distance and will have every chance to stick it out today in a race without any effective closers in the lineup. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding always has been vulnerable in the late stages of his races, but these are his friends and we’re expecting him to seize the opportunity. Freshened since February but with a solid series of recent drills at Los Alamitos, the lightly raced six-year-old gelding will offer a bit of value if he leaves at or near his morning line of 5/2. Exceed Speed Limit is worth including on your ticket just in case our top pick again falters close home. He’s a five-time winner with strong speed figures for the level and clearly is the most dangerous of the off-the-pace types.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Anarchist; 4-Brickyard Ride
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Anarchist is a progressive four-year-old and the Doug O’Neill-trained colt appears ready to produce another forward move in this year’s edition of the Kona Gold S.-G3. Most effective as a stalker or presser, the son of Distorted Humor projects to settle behind the committed front runner Brickyard Ride and then have every chance to tag that one in the final furlong. The latter may have lost a step or two at age six, but he is a nine time winner over the Santa Anita main track and always must be respected. He’ll take them as far as he can.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Kitty Kitana; 2-One Silk Stocking
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Kitty Kitana was pulled up abruptly in the Buena Vista S.-G2 entering the far turn as if she had gone wrong, but the English-bred filly walked off on her own power and clearly is okay. She returns over a tricky downhill turf course that she has run well on in the past, and with a healthy series of works in recent weeks to have her primed and ready the Phil D’Amato-trained import should fire her best shot. We like her strongly on top but will also include One Silk Stocking. She was asked to face colts last time out – we have no idea why – and should regain her best form under these conditions. A prior winner over the Hillside Course, she projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking trip and then have a good shot from the dirt crossing to the wire.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Casia
Backups/savers: 1-Sugar Sugar; 8-Balenciaga Betty.

Forecast: Casia walked out of the gate in her debut at Turf Paradise last month when facing maiden special weight company and then did okay to close a gap and wind up a better-than-looked fifth. If she leaves with her field today, the Vladimir Cerin-trained four-year-old should be highly competitive in this modest bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Bug boy Alsagoor has become something of a go-to rider for this stable, so when it all adds up the daughter of Acclamation looks extremely live and well-meant. Sugar Sugarmay be the best of the local contingent but she’s a 14-race maiden and definitely not one to trust. You can toss her in as a backup along with the class dropping Balenciaga Betty, who is comfortably drawn outside and is competitive on speed figures at this level.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Topolina; 4-Paleo’s Princess
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Topolina looked like the winner in mid-stretch but was collared late and finished a close third in a similar starter optional claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares last month. She’ll have to negotiate an extra furlong today but likely will enjoy softer early splits which could help her see out the trip. Excellent speed rider Edwin Maldonado will do his best to keep her together in the final stages. Paleo’s Princess, sixth in the same race our top pick exits, needs to be taken back early and produced late, and given that type of ride could make some serious noise at 10-1. She has a prior win over the local lawn and will be making her third start off a layoff, so she’ll have no excuses.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Defunded
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Defunded is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the Californian S-G2 and seems certain to go even lower than that. Worn down late in the Santa Anita Handcap-G1 last month after cutting out all the fractions in a huge effort, the son of Dialed In shortens up a furlong, lands the good rail, and will be the controlling speed without having to be sent. He’s actually dropping three pounds to 122 as well. We’ll make him a short priced, no value, rolling exotic single in a race that otherwise should be passed.

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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Smooth Salute
Backups/savers: 5-Neon Lights; 2-O’Banion

Forecast: The locals do nothing for us, so let’s sink or swim with three newcomers in this downhill turf course maiden special weight grass affair. Debuting Smooth Salute has done some good work in the morning for Michael McCarthy, including a visually pleasing :59 2/5 gate (fourth fastest of 99) six days ago while looking to have at least a fair amount of ability. Based on that drill alone he’s worth at least a small gamble at 8-1 on the morning line in what looks to be a softer than average affair. Neon Lights got left at the gate in his debut earlier this year in Ireland but stayed on nicely to finish with some energy to be fourth while earning a Timeform rating that makes him a fit with these. The main concern is that in a recent gate work (4f, :47.3hg) he broke poorly again. Hopefully, he can leave with his field today, and if he does he should make his presence felt. O’Banion apparently has worked pretty well at Los Alamitos for trainer Phil D’Amato and his only outing last summer in Ireland wasn’t bad (fourth of nine). Based on his connections, you have to include him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:31 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

April 22, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 14-race card to complete the harness action this weekend. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a low 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Sheer Terror (9/2)-Almost beat #5 last time and that would have been the 1st win in 6 starts. Hoping the morning line is correct because there was a lot to like about the last start. Was used off the gate, then sat in a hole and closed in 26.2. Expecting a big try and will fade the 2nd program chalk #1 who is in a new barn plus is 1st time Lasix.
5-Ants Marching (7/5)-Certainly has been too strong not to include and should be as good or better on a fast track. This is a major player but having a feeling this race may not set up as well as the last two starts and could be a bigger challenge.

Race 7

1-Will The Wizard A (9/2)-Tossing the U.S. debut on 4-15 on a "good" track from post 10. Had no shot coming from last but did roll the 2nd half in 53.4. This was AMac's pick over #2, should be racing near the top of the stack and could surprise at a square price.
5-De Los Cielos Deo (6-1)-In the last 2 starts Gingras wasn't between the pipes and didn't do much albeit the last race was from post 8. Draws well, looking for a wake-up call and at a nice price.
7-Rockin The Aces (3-1)-Was beaten by a length by Chaser Hanover last time and started from the same post. That winner isn't in this group and David Miller gets the assignment as Zeron sticks with #4. Has the gate speed to leave again and try to go gate to wire.

Race 8

1-Village Jade (8-1)-This is the other Burke entry who will be steered by Joe B. and gets a post edge over its stablemate #9. This mare comes back in sequence, has enough gate speed to race near the top of the stack and could be there at the line.
5-Hot Mess Express (3-1)-Didn't do well in the Borgata Series at Yonkers but is better on a bigger oval. Has won 3 of 6 at M1 and would be tough to beat if brings its "A" game.
9-Jody (7/2)-Tried Lasix for the 1st time on 4-8, started from the rail and missed by a 1/2 length. That was the 1st start since 2-22 and raced the back half in 54.4. Has good gate speed and should land in a nice seat. Only drawback is missing a start and could be over bet.

Race 9

8-Dealyed Hanover (7/2)-The post helps the price and increases the challenge but with a smooth trip this should be the winner. Lost a photo to #10 last time and the winner was masterfully driven as Andrew McCarthy worked a 58.1 middle half. This time Dunn could pull off a winning trip.

0.50 Early Pick 4

3,5/1,5,7/1,5,9/8
Total Bet=$9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:31 AM

Race of the Week: Californian at Santa Anita | Saturday, April 22

April 21, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
After a scheduled week off at Santa Anita, the Great Race Place is back with Friday-Sunday racing and a big card on Saturday. The co-features are the Grade 3 $100,000 Kona Gold for sprinters and the Grade 2 $200,000 Californian in the Breeders' Cup Classic division. The 1-1/8 miles Californian will be Race 9 on the card. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet players can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special if their win bet finishes second or third in this race.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner DEFUNDED stands out on class. ROYAL SHIP is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed, while KISS TODAY GOODBYE is also a Grade 2 winner. PARNELLI is Grade 2-placed.

Pace:
DEFUNDED pairs the speed and class from the rail and likely controls this. MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH could add some early interest, but this does not look to fall apart in any fashion.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-DEFUNDED: With Santa Anita Handicap 1-2 finishers Stilleto Boy and Proxy on the road for the $1 million Oaklawn Handicap, the Big 'Cap third-place finisher seemingly has the playground to himself in the Californian. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race 3 times, most recently in 2018 when going back-to-back with Collected and Dr. Dorr. The best race of his career was at this same track/distance when wiring the Grade 1 Awesome Again in October. Expect similar tactics.

2-KISS TODAY GOODBYE: Deep closer has only 2 starts in the last 14 months and was 114-1 and 78-1 in those without showing his prior abilities. Finally back on dirt, but hasn't won a race since the 2020 San Antonio. He'll need the pace to collapse to have his best chance.

3-MR. IMPOSSIBLE: February allowance winner on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields, he last won on dirt in September at Los Alamitos. Munnings gelding has been 1 starts bid in 13 career starts, a well-beaten fourth nearly 2 years ago in the Grade 3 Affirmed over this track. Tall task from a pace-pressing trip.

4-MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH: Wire-to-wire winner in 2 of his last 4 starts, he'll find the early pressure here a different animal (literally) against DEFUNDED. His local 11-1 upset March 19 in allowance company was his first win on dirt in 5 tries. Steps up in class while in good form.

5-PARNELLI: Pace-versatile sort has never really gotten over the hump at the upper levels at Santa Anita, but his best is capable of being in the discussion here. John Shirreffs trainee exits a solid third, beaten 1 length, in the Grade 2 San Pasual over this track and distance. His Santa Anita main track form is much better than that from Del Mar, which clouds his ledger a bit. Biggest threat to DEFUNDED.

6-ROYAL SHIP: The 2021 Californian winner has to regain his form that has been absent since being obliterated by the great Flightline in last summer's Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Since having his heart sunk by 26 lengths that day, he's returned to run 6th by nearly 20 lengths and 8th by more than 15 lengths. Never comfortably toss Richard Mandella and Mike Smith in a spot like this, but it's no safe bet this 7-year-old gets back on the beam.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
DEFUNDED stands out on paper and no reason to think he won't light the board even on an off day.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
KISS TODAY GOODBYE could pass some tired chasers of DEFUNDED for a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 exacta DEFUNDED over PARNELLI. $25 exacta DEFUNDED over KISS TODAY GOODBYE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:33 AM

Race of the Week: $100,000 Henry S. Clark at Laurel | Sat.

April 19, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Laurel Park rolls out the red carpet for a second straight Saturday of multiple stakes races. The Henry S. Clark is Maryland's prep for the Preakness precursor, the Dinner Party Stakes, for turf performers. It will be Race 8 Saturday on a card that welcomes turf racing back to the state in 2023.

Field Depth:
DOUBLE CROWN is a Grade 2 winner. ENGLISH BEE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed. Along with SMOKIN' T, these are the ones with the class edge.

Pace:
Penn National raiders HELMS DEEP and DEE JAY should carve out the early fractions while taking a rise in class. The horse who sits third behind them should have the dream trip. ENGLISH BEE could find that trip based on past performances.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-SKY'S NOT FALLING: Three straight races have seen him have some incidents leaving the starting gate, so it's a danger zone in his neighborhood. The Laurel form is good, but better in turf sprints than the 2-turn tries.

2-SMOKIN' T: After terrible draws in his last 2 at Gulfstream, the 2-hole will help save ground Saturday for much of the mile journey. Trainer Shug McGaughey invaded to win Laurel's Tesio last weekend and brings a legit contender for the Clark. Needs a clean next start next to the troubled breaker in post 1.

3-CANNON'S ROAR: Consistent Laurel performer is one-paced and rarely embarrasses himself. Young trainer Phillip Capuano got his first stakes win last week in the Frank Whiteley Stakes and gets this one back in the family barn after a Tampa winter.

4-YOU MUST CHILL: High-percentage trainer Jamie Ness sends this Parx-based runner back over the Laurel turf for just the second time, losing a starter allowance at 4-5 in October of 2021. He's 5-for-5 in the money in turf miles, but it's been a long spell since running in those.

5-OCALA DREAM: New York-bred returns from a layoff for Aqueduct-based Tom Morley, and notably was flat off a similar break to start the 2022 season. May need a race, but his fourth in the Baruch at Saratoga stacks up competitively.

6- HELMS DEEP: Ex-claimer more effective on dirt and can be expected to be part of the early pace.

7-DEE JAY: Faced tougher at Penn National than HELMS DEEP, but their 2 styles likely cancel each other's effectiveness out on the front end of the Clark. But this one's turf miler genes could find him at his best trip here in his first true turf mile bid. High-percentage connections with Conner-Lawrence.

8: ENGLISH BEE: Classy veteran has been a regular in the Dinner Party Stakes on Preakness Day, and this year finally takes the local prep path in the Clark. Should get a dynamite trip right behind the two speed horses. His last vs. Emmanuel, Steady On and Fort Washington was simply better than these. Effective 4-for-10 mark at the turf mile.

9: DOUBLE CROWN: Dirt performer has only 1 grass start in 31 races, but he's earned $600K lifetime on the strength of top-end races like the Grade 2 Kelso in New York. He hasn't been the same horse since, but perked back to life at 35-1 last time out in the Harrison Johnson Memorial on dirt. May be best around 1 turn at this point of his career.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ENGLISH BEE gets a great trip likely and has the class edge.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
DEE JAY will be on the early pace and could relish this trip and hang on for a share while stepping up in class.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 win ENGLISH BEE. $10 exacta part-wheel ENGLISH BEE with SMOKIN' T and DEE JAY ($20).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:35 AM

Jon White: Beyer Figures vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby

April 19, 2023 | By Jon White
Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move heads into the Kentucky Derby as the only prospective participant in the 1 1/4-mile classic to have earned more than a single triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure (BSF).

Practical Move posted a 100 Beyer when he won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on March 4. He matched that 100 figure when he eked out a nose victory in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles.

Only three current candidates for the May 6 Kentucky Derby have an official triple-digit BSF to their credit. They are listed below:

Beyer Horse (Finish, Race)

101 Two Phil’s (1st, Jeff Ruby)
100 Practical Move (1st, Santa Anita Derby)
100 Practical Move (1st, San Felipe)
100 Mandarin Hero (2nd, Santa Anita Derby)

There were no official Beyers for the UAE Derby. However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has stated that the victorious Derma Sotogake’s figure in that race is estimated to be in the triple-digit range. Also, Derma Sotogake’s UAE figure would be higher than the Beyer for the older Ushba Tesora’s victory on the same card in the second-richest horse race in the world, the $12 million Dubai World Cup.

It usually takes a triple-digit BSF to win the Kentucky Derby.

Listed below are the three current Kentucky Derby candidates to have come the closest to running a triple-digit Beyer:

99 Tapit Trice (1st, Blue Grass)
99 Verifying (2nd, Blue Grass)
99 Skinner (3rd Santa Anita Derby)

No other current Kentucky Derby candidate sports a Beyer higher than a 95. Two have a 95 figure to their credit. They are Reincarnate and Kingsbarns.

ARE DECLINING BEYERS A BIG DEAL?

When I dropped Forte from No. 2 to No. 5 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 last week, I wrote for Xpressbet.com that “unlike fellow [Todd] Pletcher trainees Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice, Forte’s Beyers are going into the wrong direction.”

I pointed out that after Forte registered a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he ran a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then slid further down to a 95 in the Florida Derby.

Forte’s declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern piqued my curiosity.

I wondered, “Has any Kentucky Derby winner during the Beyer Speed Figure era had a declining pattern in his final three starts prior to the Run for the Roses, a la Forte?”

The Beyer Speed Figures were first published in Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby past performances in 1992.

Only once from 1992 to the present has a Kentucky Derby winner had a declining Beyer pattern similar to Forte’s. That one horse was 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who like Forte was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion.

Street Sense recorded a 108 Beyer when he won the BC Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs in his final start as a 2-year-old. Next, he dropped to a 102 BSF when he won the Tampa Bay Derby by a nose in his first start at 3. He then declined further to only a 93 BSF in his nose defeat when second in the Blue Grass Stakes.

After Street Sense’s 93 BSF in the Blue Grass, he took a giant leap to a 110 Beyer when he won the 2007 Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths.

The fact that only one of the last 31 Kentucky Derby winners went into the race with a declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern similar to Forte’s is, to me, a big red flag for Forte.

As I see it, another negative for Forte in the Kentucky Derby is he’s been unable to be first or second a furlong out in both of his last two starts. This suggests that he might not be first or second with a furlong left to run in the Kentucky Derby. And if he’s not first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, it greatly reduces his chances of winning insofar as 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.

As of last weekend at race books in Las Vegas, Forte was listed as the Kentucky Derby favorite at anywhere from 9-5 to 5-2. Is betting him to win at such a short price a good idea? I don’t think so, not with those declining Beyers and a concern that he won’t be first or second a furlong from the finish.

MY KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

There are no changes to my Kentucky Derby Top 10 from last week. The list is below:

1. Practical Move
2. Kingsbarns
3. Tapit Trice
4. Angel of Empire
5. Forte
6. Derma Sotogake
7. Skinner
8. Two Phil’s
9. Mandarin Hero
10. Verifying

FIRST MISSION TAKES LEXINGTON STAKES

First Mission announced his candidacy for the Preakness Stakes by winning the Grade III Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last Saturday (April 15). He proved a punctual 2-1 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile contest, edging 7-2 Arabian Lion by a half-length. Disarm finished third, 4 1/4 lengths behind Arabian Lion.

By finishing first in the Lexington, First Mission earned 20 points toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby. Those 20 points are all that First Mission has earned, which are not early nearly enough to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Consequently, First Mission is expected to make his next start in the Preakness on May 20.

One horse was able to use the Lexington as a means to get into the Kentucky Derby. Disarm picked up six points for finishing third in the Lexington. That boosted his total to 46 points, putting him into Kentucky Derby 149.

KENTUCKY DERBY POINT STANDINGS

With all the races offering qualifying points now completed, the prospective field for the Kentucky Derby has taken shape. The field of 20 at this time is comprised of the the 19 leading point earners, plus Continuar’s invitation through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs lists six other possibilities, all hoping for a defection or defections from the current 20-horse field. The points are listed below (if two or more horses have the same number of points, the tiebreaker is earnings in non-restricted stakes race):

Rank (Points) Horse

1. (190) Forte
2. (160) Practical Move
3. (154) Angel of Freedom
4. (150) Tapit Trice
5. (123) Two Phil’s
6. (105) Lord Miles
7. (100) Derma Sotogake
8. (100) Kingsbarns
9. ( 64) Raise Cain
10. ( 60) Rocket Can
11. ( 60) Hit Show
12. ( 57) Confidence Game
13. ( 54) Verifying
14. ( 54) Sun Thunder
15. ( 50) Wild On Ice
16. ( 50) Mage
17. ( 46) Blazing Sevens
18. ( 46) Disarm
19. ( 45) Reincarnate
20. (invite) Continuar*

21. ( 45) Jace’s Road
22. ( 45) Skinner
23. ( 45) Cyclone Mischief
24. ( 40) Major Dude
25. ( 40) Mandarin Hero
26. ( 40) King Russell

* UAE Derby third Continuar has been extended an invitation to compete in the Kentucky Derby for accruing 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM

I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) back in 1999. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular for many years. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But when many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, their popularity waned.

I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”

A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.

It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.

The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.

The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.

History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.

The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).

Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.

The strikes for the current Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below:

ZERO STRIKES

Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
Hit Show
Major Dude
Practical Move
Tapit Trice

ONE STRIKE

Confidence Game (Category 5)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Lord Miles (Category 3)
Raise Cain (Category 5)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)

TWO STRIKES

Blazing Sevens (Categories 3 and 6)
Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Disarm (Categories 2 and 3)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2)
Skinner (Categories 2 and 3)
Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3)
Verifying (Categories 2 and 4)

THREE STRIKES

Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.

The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:

2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money

**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

DR. FAGER AND THE 1968 CALIFORNIAN

The Grade II Californian Stakes will be run this Saturday (April 22) at Santa Anita.

When Dr. Fager put together one of the greatest campaigns by a Thoroughbred in American racing history in 1968, one of his victories came in the Californian.

“Dr. Fager was a singular performer as a 4-year-old in 1968,” Charles Hatton wrote in the American Racing Manual. “He was appropriately awarded Horse of the Year honors, which is the ultimate accolade, and excelled in more departments and more divisional titles than any horse since the Daily Racing Form and The Morning Telegraph poll was instituted in 1936.”

In addition to his Horse of the Year crown, Dr. Fager in 1968 was voted best handicap horse, best grass horse and best sprinter. He became the first and still only American racehorse to be voted four titles in a single season.

Dr. Fager won seven of eight starts in 1968. In a tremendous demonstration of weight-carrying ability that year, he never -- I repeat never -- raced with less than 130 pounds. That in itself is remarkable. His highest weight that year and in his career was the 139 pounds he carried to a six-length victory in the seven-furlong Vosburgh Handicap, which was his final start.

Each time that Dr. Fager went to the post in 1968, a world, American, track or course record was in jeopardy.

“Dr. Fager set and tied records from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter, slashing the world mile mark to 1:32 1/5 en route,” Hatton wrote.

In the 1968 Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park, Dr. Fager carried 134 pounds. He made that burdensome impost seem like a feather, winning in splendid isolation by 10 lengths. His 1:32 1/5 clocking shaved two-fifths of a second off the world record for one mile set by Buckpasser two years earlier at Arlington.

Braulio Baeza rode Dr. Fager in the Washington Park Handicap and in all of the headstrong 4-year-old colt’s other races that year other than his 1968 debut in which John Rotz was the pilot.

I interviewed Baeza in 2006 at Santa Anita. This was what he had to say about Dr. Fager: “He was a great horse, a very competitive horse. He didn’t want to see any horses in front of him. He was a very energetic horse. He was a little bit hard to control. But he could punch a hole in the wind. I don’t know if any horse could ever have beaten him up to a mile. His speed was very deceiving because he had such a smooth stride.”

Dr. Fager’s lone defeat in 1968 came when he packed 135 pounds and spotted five pounds to familiar foe Damascus in the 1 1/4-mile Brooklyn Handicap. Damascus won by 2 1/2 lengths. Dr. Fager finished second.

As for the 1968 Californian, trainer John Nerud had Dr. Fager flown from New York to Los Angeles two days before the May 18 race.

In those years, the conditions for the 1 1/8-mile Californian were extremely complicated. It was difficult to determine how much weight a horse was supposed to carry. The conditions for the 1968 Californian stated the following:

“3-year-olds 113 lbs.; older 127 lbs. Winners of $65,000 twice since September 1, 1967 to carry 3 lbs. additional, Non-winners of $50,000 twice since December 25, 1967 allowed 3 lbs.; of $70,000 once since July 25, 1967 or $50,000 twice since December 25, 1966, 6 lbs.; of $75,000 once or $30,000 twice since December 25, 1966, 9 lbs.; of $30,000 since December 25, 1966, $13,000 twice since May 9, 1967 or $13,000 since April 8, 1968, 12 lbs.; of $15,000 since May 9, 1967, 15 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box the day before the race by closing time of the entries.”

No wonder Dr. Fager’s weight originally was miscalculated.

At the time of the 1968 Californian, Bob Benoit was Hollywood Park’s director of publicity.

“When Dr. Fager was entered in the Californian, he was entered with the wrong weight,” Benoit told me years later.

According to Bob Hebert’s Californian recap in The Blood-Horse magazine, Nerud thought that Dr. Fager would be carrying 124 pounds.

“After the entries came out, the racing office re-checked the weights,” Benoit said. “When they did that, they found a mistake had been made. Dr. Fager was going to have to carry 130.”

Benoit told me that he was given the unenviable task of having to call Nerud to tell him that Dr. Fager would be carrying 130 pounds instead of 124. According to Benoit, the conversation went like this:

Benoit: “I have some bad news regarding Dr. Fager.”

Nerud: “Did something happen to the horse on the plane?”

Benoit: “No, no. As far as I know, the horse is fine.”

Nerud: “Then what’s the bad news?”

Benoit: “Well, there was a mistake in the weight Dr. Fager has to carry.”

Nerud: “Is that right? So how much does he have to carry?”

Benoit: “130.”

After a pause, Nerud only had this to say: “It won’t matter.”

The next thing Benoit heard was the click of the phone being hung up by Nerud.

Well, it turned out that Nerud was right. Future Hall of Famer Dr. Fager won the Californian “by an easy three lengths,” according to Hebert’s story. Gamely, the only filly in the field and a future Hall of Famer herself, finished second. Rising Market came in third, while sprint star Kissin’ George ended up 10th.

You can watch Dr. Fager’s victory in the 1968 Californian on YouTube (Harry Henson has the call): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9bucY6hLbA

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 301 Elite Power (24)
2. 215 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 209 Art Collector (6)
4. 174 West Will Power
5. 171 Clairiere
6. 104 Goodnight Olive
7. 103 Secret Oath
8. 111 Last Samurai
9. 91 In Italian
10. 84 Cody’s Wish (1)

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 342 Forte (29)
2. 285 Tapit Trice (4)
3. 261 Practical Move (1)
4. 253 Angel of Empire
5. 182 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 114 Derma Sotogake
7. 90 Two Phil’s
8. 76 Verifying
9. 68 Mage
10. 53 Confidence Game

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #8

#3 Rising Empire	He established himself with a little class when leading almost the whole way in Grade II company in New Orleans last out, and I think he might be the 'now' horse with a new lease things since moving to the turf.
#4 Another Mystery	He's probably better at a longer trip like this than he was going nine furlongs against the top choice last out, and the price might be right to give him a look.
#7 Howe Street	He has a lot of proving to do on class with this bunch, but he really seemed to thrive in his first marathon trip on the turf last out. You lose Irad to the guy just outside, but there's no downgrade here with Prat taking over. Interesting if we haven't seen the best of him yet.
Race Summary	Maker, Mott, and Brown all send out capable players in here, but I'm going to try to get through this one with one of these price players. Rising Empire has found some sharp new form on the turf, and I think Geroux is a great fit for him while likely racing on the engine at this trip.

Keeneland - Race #9

#5 Rattle N Roll	He has some upside in this second start off the layoff, and his comeback race came in a quick spot against a deeper group overall. Think he's interesting today.
#4 Skippylongstocking	He has been a real handful outside of Grade I company over the last year, and he should be in line for another great trip. Think the top choice might be within range of this guy, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who tried to grab a free space here and move on.
#6 Happy American	He turned in a couple big races this winter, and he must still be doing well, because the connections were already talking about a break for him before the two more modest recent efforts. Think he has a bit higher upside than the price will suggest -- best stuff puts him in the picture.
Race Summary	Rattle N Roll goes second off the bench, and I'm hoping the presence of Skippylongstocking will keep the price playable enough.

Keeneland - Race #10

#8 Mark of the Z	He has always done good work over this course, and he finished up well enough behind the Breeders' Cup winner in that comeback race. A good race shape coupled with some upside in the second start back? Sign me up.
#3 Beer Can Man	He might be in the perfect spot to just settle a touch off the more committed pace players, and that might give him first jump on the finishers when they turn in. Capable.
#9 Johnny Unleashed	Price should be big here to give this guy a little longshot look, as he's bringing really dull recent form, but there are a couple of competitive running lines on his page including one here. He'll be on my reach plays.
Race Summary	#10 Just Might gets also makes sense in here while trying to become a millionaire, as his page is covered with company lines better than most of the rest in here. That said, I worry the need-the-lead types are going to burn each other out and set something up from off the pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:36 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#5 YOUR ANALYSIS (3-1)	Romped a month after he was a vet scratch, didn’t deter Gonzalez claim.
#6 MORETHANREADYEDDIE (7-2)	Tried turf after smashing debut but ran into trouble both times.
#4 AMITY ROAD (10-1)	Sustained 4-wide bid and drew away to win two back after 9 months away.
Race Summary	YOUR ANALYSIS sat a good trip in a six-horse field to break his maiden in a romp, but the February 25 vet scratch looked good doing it and is taken to repeat on the switch from one top barn to another. Make him today’s Best Bet and play 5-2, 5-4 and 5-6 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#4 CARMICHAELSPIONEER (6-1)	Good speed in near miss off layoff, takes class hike for turf debut.
#3 SHARP RED EAGLE (5-2)	Backed up chasing the favorite in return, good fit with these.
#1 STAR SHOPPING (7-2)	Finished in money in 8 of last 9 starts, many at short odds.
Race Summary	CARMICHAELSPIONEER shook clear of a duel off a year layoff and got caught by an 7-to-5 closer. He steps up off that game effort and switches to turf for the first time. His dam, Boodles (3-4, $85k), won her first three starts, though none on the turf. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#4 QUANTUM LIGHT (6-1)	Works say ‘all set’ for seasonal debut, lures Toledo to ride.
#2 RUTHANNE (5-2)	Logical choice after she led clear and got caught by another well-meant firster.
#3 PUNKIN (5-1)	Finished behind Ruthanne, gets an extra half furlong to try and turn the tables.
Race Summary	QUANTUM LIGHT showed a pulse for a half mile in a well-bet debut last fall, now she shows a series of good main track workouts for a high-percentage barn with turf-to-dirt and layoff runners. Believe she will fire a big shot at a tempting price, so bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $120,000 • Post: 3:08P
KEE - R5 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $24,000 TWICE OVER A MILE ON THE TURF SINCE FEBRUARY 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $23,400 OVER A MILE ON THE TURF SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE AND ONE-EIGHTH ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MISE EN SCENE (GB) is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MISE EN SCENE (GB): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	MISE EN SCENE (GB)	7/5	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MISE EN SCENE (GB)	3	7/5	Front-runner	106	107	103.5	96.1	91.6
4	LOVELY PRINCESS	4	9/2	Stalker	98	96	92.0	91.6	82.6
7	MYRISKYAFFAIR	7	7/2	Stalker	94	91	87.0	90.8	81.8
8	BEECHNUT TROPHY	8	4/1	Trailer	94	85	90.2	89.4	81.4
2	MISS MARIE	2	12/1	Trailer	87	87	76.8	87.4	79.4
5	SHE'S GONE	5	10/1	Trailer	96	90	74.8	92.8	83.3
1	KATHAAN	1	20/1	Trailer	87	89	52.1	78.0	66.0
6	READY LADY	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	80	65.2	82.8	74.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:37 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel ParkPURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 10	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 10-11) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA
Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 5:11P
DAHLIA S. - (RAIL AT 17 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE-YEARS-OLD AND UPWARD. BY FREE SUBSCRIPTION. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $500 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH. WEIGHTS: THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $60,000 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2022-23 ALLOWED 2 LBS.; $60,000 ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2022-23, 4 LBS.; $40,000 ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2022-23, 6 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). TROPHY TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, APRIL 8, 2023 WITH 35 NOMINATIONS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DECIDING VOTE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with ho rses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. MISS CAROL ANN (IRE): Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win p ercentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SURPRISINGLY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TIC TIC TIC BOOM: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (withi n 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
5	DECIDING VOTE	8/1	5/1
9	MISS CAROL ANN (IRE)	6/1	6/1
1	SURPRISINGLY	8/5	7/1
4	TIC TIC TIC BOOM	15/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	DOUBLE FIREBALL	7	20/1	Front-runner	88	83	102.6	85.4	72.9
10	TAKNTOTHECLEANERS	10	12/1	Front-runner	96	99	89.4	94.7	83.2
6	REGAL REALM	6	6/1	Front-runner	93	96	82.9	84.9	75.4
5	DECIDING VOTE	5	8/1	Trailer	101	103	84.4	100.0	93.5
4	TIC TIC TIC BOOM	4	15/1	Trailer	99	96	83.6	91.4	82.9
1	SURPRISINGLY	1	8/5	Trailer	103	97	69.2	93.0	86.5
9	MISS CAROL ANN (IRE)	9	6/1	Trailer	99	102	64.5	95.7	85.7
8	MISTY MAUVE	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	64	65.8	68.7	51.2
2	IN MY OPINION	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	84	43.6	69.2	54.2

Unknown Running Style: SOPRAN BASILEA (IRE) (7/2) [Jockey: Toledo Jevian - Trainer: Motion H Graham].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $49600 Class Rating: 75

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS THAT HAVE RACED 3 CONSECUTIVE STARTS IN THE MAIDEN OPTIONAL $40,000 / OS CATEGORY IN 2022-23 AND DID NOT FINISH 2ND THRU 4TH. OR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $23,500, ALLOWED 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 JAB 5/2
# 1 KIMONO KATE 2/1
# 3 THEODOROPOULOS 6/1

JAB looks to be a decent contender. Ran a very strong last race. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 83, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group of horses. Could provide positive returns based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 65. KIMONO KATE - Should best this group of horses in this race here, showing formidable figures of late. Earned a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. THEODOROPOULOS - Looks solid to be on or close to the front end at the first call. This horse could upset this group at a decent number.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:32pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,700 Class Rating: 46

Rating:

#4 CHARITABLE WINDSOR (ML=5/1)
#1 WINDSOR'S STAR (ML=6/1)

CHARITABLE WINDSOR - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a solid effort last time around the track within the last 30 days. Last race was at Charles Town. Finished third, but had a decent chunk of the win pool. Could be dangerous today. WINDSOR'S STAR - Taking a trip down in class; has the ability to make his presence felt. This jockey and trainer's animals have been producing a favorable ROI. This horse coming off a sharp try in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 DUNCAN IDAHO (ML=6/5), #3 DRUNK TEXT (ML=9/2), #8 JUBA'S HAT TRICK (ML=8/1),

DUNCAN IDAHO - Doesn't look to be in a comfortable circumstance today. DRUNK TEXT - I don't possess a positive sensation about this entrant in this race. JUBA'S HAT TRICK - Doesn't look to be worth 8/1 in today's event. Pass on him this time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CHARITABLE WINDSOR - When a beautiful animal takes such a big drop in the class rating department, I always have a look. I like what I see with this one and am betting on him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 CHARITABLE WINDSOR is going to be the play if we are getting 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 1 with [5,10,11] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 1 with [3,5,7,10,11] with [3,5,7,10,11] Total Cost: $20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2023, 06:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $60000 Class Rating: 90

LYMAN AND BRADLEY ROLLINS S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD, BRED IN ARIZONA. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 TO ENTER. STARTERS TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. WEIGHT: THREE-YEAR-OLD 120 LBS. OLDER 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $15,000 TWICE IN 2022-2023, ALLOWED 4

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 ANNIE'S BOY 5/2
# 6 RAMBLIN' MAN 9/5
# 2 TACTICAL ATTACK 7/2

I've got to go with ANNIE'S BOY. Will almost certainly go to the front end and could never look back. The speed rating of 80 from his latest race looks very good in here. He has formidable class ratings, averaging 104, and has to be given consideration in this race. RAMBLIN' MAN - Looks like a strong player for the exotics. Earned a formidable speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. TACTICAL ATTACK - With Corbett controlling the reins on him, this gelding will probably be able to break out sharply for this race. Is a solid choice - given the 80 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race.