Thursday 4/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #5

#5 Hideki	She held her form on the hike back into allowance company last time out, and she has shown some versatility in running style that might leave her in a great spot to spy the pace today. Turf is a question, but the synthetic form might bode well.
#1 Lost My Sock	She ran the best race of her career in stakes company here in her only local try, and she's back off the layoff looking to fire fresh. Wouldn't be any surprise.
#11 Daring Do	Not going to argue with anyone landing here off the pretty quick maiden win at Turfway, and she's a big danger here just based on her first two starts. Price might get short?
Race Summary	Plenty of interesting horses on the also-eligibles here, so be sure to reassess after scratches. Hideki has appeal while moving to the turf, and I think she's in line for an excellent trip in this spot. Price might stay playable enough.

Keeneland - Race #8

#7 Creative Minister	He made only a mild move in a tough Oaklawn race last out, and he can probably move forward with that race under his belt. Think that comeback might have been better than it looks. I'm sold at a mid-range price.
#1 Vittorio	He can hit hard after the good graded try last out, but I do think he's going to take more cash then he should based on his realistic chances of winning a fairly solid race.
#8 Curbstone	He should be right up on the splits from the outside draw while bringing really sharp recent form from New York, but I worry about him just a touch on overall class.
Race Summary	Creative Minister needs to step forward off a couple modest-looking tries bookending his layoff, but he caught a tough winner in the comeback try and makes a lot of sense here with a move forward.

Keeneland - Race #9

#5 St. Neots	He turned in a good try off the bench that might have hinted at a better 3-year-old season, and I think he looks competitive in a race where a few runners drawn wider are sure to command cash. Legit price chance.
#7 Sherlock's Jewel	He moved forward nicely in that Kentucky Downs try last fall, and he should be able to find a good spot right up near the splits with these. He can use his pace to find a good spot right up top, but I also don't think he needs the lead if it comes to that.
#8 Just So	The Gulfstream debut was solid and stacks up nicely with the best of these, and he probably figures tough in here if he has any step forward in him in this second career start.
Race Summary	#9 Balthazar brings good Santa Anita form, and #10 Cyber Ninja has some upside in a race that looks like it might produce a couple useful runners going forward. St. Neots could offer a playable enough price in here while bringing Tampa form, and I'm not sure we've seen the very best of him yet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#5 SOUND DOCTRINE (4-1)	Took overland route after early trouble in debut, added ground a plus.
#1 FAITH (9-2)	Gained some on 7-5 winner at this distance two back, enters new barn.
#6 SOLOMON’S GOLD (5-2)	Four seconds in last seven starts, switches pilots again.
Race Summary	SOUND DOCTRINE was climbing early and 5- to 8-wide throughout in his first start, but he finished with some interest, gets an extra half-furlong to travel and gets second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-6 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#3 SCOTTISH SYMPHONY (6-1)	Loomed boldly at top of lane as beaten fave in lone turf try.
#6 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (7-5)	Beat all firsters on Saratoga lawn, ran troubled fourth in G-III stakes.
#2 ALTERNATE ROCK (5-1)	Can make good use of her speed, distance the question.
Race Summary	SCOTTISH SYMPHONY, unhurried for a half-mile in a 7-1/2F turf test two starts back, advanced between rivals on the turn and finished willingly after she angled 4-wide for the stretch drive. Bet to win and place and play a 3-6 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#1 SUN AZTECA (5-1)	Tries to follow the lead of her stakes-winning dam.
#5 MIST (2-1)	Connections are hot of late; dam was 4-16, $189k earner and stakes winner locally.
#6 CHEROKEE (4-1)	Showing some zip in the mornings at Gulfstream.
Race Summary	SUN AZTECA debuts for a barn on a 16-for-72 run with 2-year-olds. Her dam, Northern Netti, won the first three starts of her career, capped by a 9-1/4-length romp in a $100,000 stakes race at Belmont. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 1	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 1 &2, Pick 3 ($1) (1-3) Early Pick 5 (.50) (1-5)
Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $39,000 • Post: 1:20P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * GREATEST LOVE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BEAUTIFUL KAREN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GIRL OF TOSCONOVA: Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ICY REPLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20 .
7	GREATEST LOVE	2/1	4/1
6	BEAUTIFUL KAREN	6/1	6/1
1	GIRL OF TOSCONOVA	12/1	9/1
4	ICY REPLY	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SCOTT ALAIA	2	4/1	Front-runner	78	75	98.6	67.3	54.3
4	ICY REPLY	4	6/1	Front-runner	79	74	89.8	65.4	53.9
6	BEAUTIFUL KAREN	6	6/1	Front-runner	85	74	85.0	70.0	64.0
5	TWICE SMITTEN	5	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	76	71	66.2	61.2	48.7
7	GREATEST LOVE	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	81	62.6	75.8	73.8
1	GIRL OF TOSCONOVA	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	80	49.4	69.2	61.7
3	KEEN DANCER	3	12/1	Trailer	82	62	25.4	51.6	38.6
8	TRADE SECRET	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	72	79.8	65.0	55.0
9	GRINGOTTS	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	72	53.8	68.8	54.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 2	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $10,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $19,400 • Post: 7:30P
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. S S ALASKAN CRUZ is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * S S ALASKAN CRUZ: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WINDSOR'S TRACKER: Horse has run a Good Race within the la st 30 days. ORANGEBURG: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. DEVIL'S CANYON: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. NICE BUT NA UGHTY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	S S ALASKAN CRUZ	5/2	5/1
7	WINDSOR'S TRACKER	3/1	6/1
1	ORANGEBURG	7/2	7/1
4	DEVIL'S CANYON	9/2	8/1
6	NICE BUT NAUGHTY	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	PETTYFORURTHOUGHTS	3	12/1	Front-runner	50	43	64.0	35.4	24.9
1	ORANGEBURG	1	7/2	Front-runner	58	54	63.8	48.6	41.1
6	NICE BUT NAUGHTY	6	6/1	Stalker	53	51	55.8	50.2	42.7
4	DEVIL'S CANYON	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	46	57	61.0	46.7	39.7
7	WINDSOR'S TRACKER	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	55	57.2	48.8	42.8
2	S S ALASKAN CRUZ	2	5/2	Trailer	61	57	35.6	50.6	44.6
5	BERNIE THE GAMBLER	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	52	52.0	48.2	36.7

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 PRETTY EDGY (ML=4/1)
#1 ROMANTIC COMEDY (ML=5/2)
#1A EPICUREAN (ML=5/2)


PRETTY EDGY - Ran in the last race against a high class rated field at Charles Town. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. This jockey fits well with this animal. The mare and Glaser together win at a rate of 67 percent. ROMANTIC COMEDY - Look for this filly to show better today. Last event at Laurel finishing seventh on a track listed as good is no sign of her true ability. 'Horse-for-the-course' is a classic handicapping angle. Since this filly has won over this turf course it may give her an edge. EPICUREAN - This mare likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter trip and should promote her chances of winning. I think this mare is very sharp right now. I like the fact that Ness brings her back to a race so quickly. The Apr 12th race at Parx Racing was at a class level of (80). Dropping down the ladder based on class rating points considerably, so she should be in a good spot.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MINER'S GEM (ML=4/1), #2 BRAMBLE BUSH (ML=9/2), #9 LILLY SIMONE (ML=5/1),

MINER'S GEM - This mare in all probability won't be right there at the finish line. BRAMBLE BUSH - In any contest of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in sprint races lately. LILLY SIMONE - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint contests in order to support her. Not likely that the speed rating she earned on Feb 15th will be good enough in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 Entry to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 41

FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 HARLAN'S PRO 9/2
# 5 CAPTADOR 9/5
# 2 CENTRALINO 2/1

HARLAN'S PRO looks to be a competitive contender. Will probably come out very strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved rapidly to the front end recently. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me lean toward this colt. Should go off at a big price and has some positive attributes going for him. CAPTADOR - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Diaz have shown strong results recently. This entrant has been consistently running well recently. CENTRALINO - Figueroa should be able to get this colt to break out quickly in this race. Have to believe this animal will make a good showing again today.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#6 FIRST HILL (ML=4/1)
#1 DIALHERUP (ML=1/1)
#2 LADY WITH A CAUSE (ML=5/2)


FIRST HILL - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. DIALHERUP - Stidham brings her back again. I advocate you stay with this hot filly. This equine earns a lot of cash per start. Uppermost in this event. LADY WITH A CAUSE - This filly should give a strong account of herself in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HONOR HALLAREN (ML=8/1),

HONOR HALLAREN - Would have to move up off that eleventh place finish last time to make an impact here. Earned a substandard speed rating last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on Mar 11th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 FIRST HILL is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 COMMAND CENTRAL 3/1
# 4 GATE CREW 4/1
# 5 CINDY'S STORM 8/1

COMMAND CENTRAL looks respectable to best this field. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Has to be given a chance based on the very good speed rating garnered in the last contest. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this racer a key contender. GATE CREW - Has performed solidly recently in route races, posting a nifty 71 avg Equibase Speed Figure. Had one of the top Speed Figures of this group in his last race. CINDY'S STORM - Ortiz ought to be able to get this gelding to break out early in here. This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to bet on.