Tuesday 4/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #4

#3 Danzing Chick	She has been a pretty reliable type so far, and she should be in line for a really good trip right up on the splits. He's running short on excuses, but I think this is the group that'll allow him to graduate.
#6 Smarty Pants	She finished a few lengths behind the top choice when they met last out, but this one has a bit more upside with just three starts under her belt. Possible.
#2 Cajun Heir	Wouldn't be surprised to see her step forward in this second start after never getting involved in the debut run, but she took some cash that day and might have something better to offer today.
Race Summary	Danzing Chick probably hits hard in here with a few running lines on her page that would almost surely land this, and she might need to just hold her current form to graduate today.

Thistledown - Race #4

#2 Myrrh	Forward player steps up with some proving to do on class, but she figures in a good spot heading into the turn and might outrun her odds on the rise.
#3 Somuchsugar	She had a pretty honest season at Mahoning and has done good work here in the past, but I worry that she might be too late.
#5 Candlelight Hours	She almost never runs a bad one, and she owns sharp local form that fits well with this group. That said, she might be a bit better going long, and this might just be a stepping stone to a successful season.
Race Summary	Myrrh should be a decent price in here while stepping up, and her early pace will keep her in the mix with these. Best stuff seems in line here.

Thistledown - Race #8

#7 Outpost Girl	She was up close and made a modest move before stopping badly in the debut run, but she's now back with Lasix for this second start and might stick around a lot longer at a price.
#12 Sugar Loves It	She's back off the bench after turning in a useful enough debut run here last fall, and I think this draw will work in her favor if she's ready to fire fresh. Perfect spying trip while in a bit light?
#1/1A Winstar entry	Either half of this entry makes sense with this group, but I think the price might get a bit short regardless of which one of these goes to post. The ones to beat.
Race Summary	Outpost Girl has some appeal at a nice number while coming back in about two weeks off the quitting debut try. The addition of Lasix and that experience under her belt might make the difference while overlooked.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #2

#5 GUEST CHECK (2-1)	Minor awards in last six starts, risky but solid favorite with Hernandez.
#2 SWEET SAVANT (5-2)	Rallied for a win and three seconds in last five starts on Turf Paradise lawn.
#1 AMERICAN GRIT (7-2)	Squandered clear lead in repeat bid, sheds 7 pounds from the rail.
Race Summary	GUEST CHECK chased and drew even with the 4-to-5 favorite at the top of the stretch but settled for second best. He gets Hernandez to ride, projects a similar trip on the class drop and should cash in as the likely favorite. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #3

#2 NOEL’S ANGEL (4-1)	Costly break in otherwise solid return against the boys.
#5 DANNYBOB (3-1)	Dueled, then held off the favorite to prevail after 5 months away.
#3 GOOD BYE CHARLIE (5-2)	Won 4 of last 6 as a gelding, tries 2F for the first time.
Race Summary	NOEL’S ANGEL bore out and exchanged bumps at the start, recovered to race in prime striking position and was out-kicked late. She was well-bet in her seasonal debut and can upgrade to a win with a cleaner trip. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#3 SPIRE (4-1)	Interesting re-claim in a field of unproven turf runners (combined 24/0-2-5).
#4 REDACTION (9-2)	Exits fast race from which he was claimed, late-running threat for this barn.
#6 SANTALUZ DREAMIN (5-2)	Pressed on lead in route, repelled one bid but got caught late.
Race Summary	SPIRE, re-claimed for $8,000 after he ran for half that amount in the race prior, sustained a 6-wide rally to win going away two starts back. He was no factor off a 5-wide trip the last time he tested the turf against race winner Moon Over ($229k). Play a 3-4-6 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $34,000 • Post: 3:32P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. WHO RUNS THE WORLD is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WHO RUNS THE WORLD: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. WICKED FROST: H orse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
6	WHO RUNS THE WORLD	9/5	9/5
1	WICKED FROST	10/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	WICKED FROST	1	10/1	Front-runner	62	70	76.9	48.0	41.0
7	MAGIC BEAUTY	7	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	61	49	55.0	41.4	35.9
6	WHO RUNS THE WORLD	6	9/5	Stalker	0	0	91.0	69.2	66.2
4	PERFECTION SAVER	4	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	68	67	24.6	44.6	38.6
5	MY BUTTERFLY	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.2	37.0	29.5

Unknown Running Style: ABSCONDER (15/1) [Jockey: Ramos Joseph D - Trainer: Medina Tomas], SWEET ALABAMA (7/2) [Jockey: Achard Alex - Trainer: Brisset Rodolphe].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse RacingPURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 3	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 3-4) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) .10 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $3,200 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 1:56P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. FIXICO is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FIXICO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ROAD GAME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PRINCE OF MAYHEM: Horse has th e highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BAM BAM CAM: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PEACOCK MAN: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts af ter a long layoff.
6	FIXICO	7/2	5/1
4	ROAD GAME	4/1	6/1
5	PRINCE OF MAYHEM	3/1	7/1
1	BAM BAM CAM	6/1	9/1
2	PEACOCK MAN	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	PRINCE OF MAYHEM	5	3/1	Front-runner	80	72	95.4	64.6	59.1
1	BAM BAM CAM	1	6/1	Front-runner	80	70	74.2	68.2	58.7
2	PEACOCK MAN	2	8/1	Stalker	76	70	65.6	66.4	60.9
4	ROAD GAME	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	75	66.6	65.9	62.9
3	R H SMOAKEM	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	73	61.6	64.0	58.0
6	FIXICO	6	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	72	66	55.8	68.2	62.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 50

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 CLASSIC SHINE 20/1
# 5 LITTLE SOLDIER BOY 3/1
# 3 PIONEER TOWN 7/2

CLASSIC SHINE looks strong to best this field especially at 20/1. His chances to win are much better this time out facing this less demanding lot. He has quite good class ratings, averaging 70, and has to be given consideration in here. LITTLE SOLDIER BOY - With a quite good 50 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. With a nice class figure average of 71, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this group of horses. PIONEER TOWN - Should compete well in the early speed clash which bodes well with this group. Handler has strong win rate (23 percent) at this distance and surface.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #8 - Post: 4:47pm - SO - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,400 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#7 RED VENUS (ML=6/1)
#1 MS SALLY (ML=9/2)
#5 LILA'S LUCKY LADY (ML=5/1)
#8 TALES OF MAKENNA (ML=7/2)


RED VENUS - Look for this one to go straight to the winner's circle at some respectable odds in this event. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the end. MS SALLY - I like to play this handicapping angle, a campaigner coming back off a strong outing within the last 30 days. This mare should be in fine form, this far into her form cycle. Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on April 11th at Turf Paradise. Anything close right here should get the job done. LILA'S LUCKY LADY - When a thoroughbred finishes in the money as often as this mare does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. Getting a break of 7 pounds from last race at Turf Paradise. She should make the most of this advantage. This mare is in fine condition. Finished second on April 11th. TALES OF MAKENNA - This mare's last rating notched on Feb 20th is number one in last race speed figs. She has the highest earnings per start (EPS). Check out this thoroughbred.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 CINNTE WINNTE (IRE) (ML=3/1), #4 PARTY POLICE (ML=8/1),

CINNTE WINNTE (IRE) - This morning-line favorite ran on March 29th and hasn't had a blow out after that. PARTY POLICE - I find it hard to wager on any entrant in a short distance event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last 60 days. Somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time out at Turf Paradise at 1 mile. Don't feel this questionable contender will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 RED VENUS on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $33900 Class Rating: 52

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1A MAN'S CHOICE 5/1
# 2 TIER ONE 5/1
# 8 EL CONDOR CAZA 7/2

MAN'S CHOICE looks to be the bet in here. Difficult to pass on this gelding with Chavez in the saddle. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. Chavez has recent return on investment figures which make this one a good wager. TIER ONE - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this group. Has some interesting angles which make this one a bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:07pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#6 STRAWBERRY CONE (ML=3/1)


STRAWBERRY CONE - Demasi drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to think this animal is in a good spot at this level. This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +60. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a very key factor. This thoroughbred is ranked numero uno in this field. Sub-par outing last time around the track at Parx Racing was due to the off-going (he ended up sixth). Have to do better right here under normal track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 JOVIAL (ML=8/5), #1 TRIPLE AMERICANO (ML=9/2), #2 WEGOTTAGUY (ML=6/1),

JOVIAL - Not a value play to back the chalk when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. TRIPLE AMERICANO - Pedestrian speed rating last out at Charles Town at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. This gelding just doesn't seem to like the 1 hole. His running lines show that he doesn't fare well from there. WEGOTTAGUY - Never really did much at all last time out on March 15th. Hard to bet on today. This steed ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last race out. He shouldn't run better and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 STRAWBERRY CONE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None