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Lift Ticket: Picks, Promos for Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday

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April 25, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
Tampa Bay Downs Race 3

Get up to a $10 money-back special if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet this special Lift Ticket race with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet. To provide an extra Lift, we've got the 1/ST BET artificial intelligence picks for this race along with Xpressbet handicapper Frank Carulli's analysis and selections.

Handicapper: 1/ST BET Artificial Intelligence

#6 FROLIC MAN (27% Win Projection)
#2 CREATIVE CLOUD (18% Win Projection)
#3 CATCHING FISH (15% Win Projection)

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Handicapper: Frank Carulli

#6 FROLIC MAN (4-1) – Arrived from Gulfstream out of a race that produced repeat winners I’ll Figure It Out (6-23, $102k) and Little Juanito (14-1 upset, 83 Beyer in $16k/nw3 sprint) and followed suit with a 9-1 upset of his own. He benefited from a lively pace, but he swung 7-wide from the rail at the quarter-mile pole to begin his winning rally. He surged clear late in a manner that suggests he can notch his first win at 7F today.

#2 CREATIVE CLOUD (2-1) – Upstaged a series of in-the-money finishes at this distance with a victory two starts back despite drifting in the final furlong. His head was turned sideways at the start last out, causing him to trail into the turn before making up some ground on the dueling leaders to finish third. The probable favorite changes riders for the fourth consecutive start.

#3 CATCHING FISH (6-1) – An interesting longshot in a pace-controlling role. Two starts ago, he veered in at the start, bumped a rival and dueled to the stretch through faster fractions than a same-day, $75,000 optional claiming race for fillies and mares before fading. He returned on short rest and was a non- factor, now switches to a barn that won with two recent acquisitions at 7F at 6-1 and 4-1 odds.

Race Summary: FROLIC MAN has been much improved of late and appears the best value despite an unproven track record at 7F. CREATIVE CLOUD is a deserving, but likely undervalued, favorite. CATCHING FISH could take some catching at a tempting price. Bet on FROLIC MAN to win and place and play 6-2 and 6-3 exactas.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #2

#3 Alibi Ike	He showed a little bit of life in the comeback run at Turfway, and he isn't too far off what it would take to land this if he has a step forward in him in the second run off the bench. Might be playable enough on the board.
#12 Charging	He already owns a good sprint try, and that turf debut last out went well in a pretty solid race. Think he's fast enough to avoid getting outrun too much on the cutback to this sharper trip, and the draw should suit his style well. The one to beat.
#8 Say it Loud	He took a big step back in the second lifetime start when eased, but he went to the bench after that and now returns fresh here. Something like the debut try over this course keeps him in the frame. I want him on the tickets.
Race Summary	Alibi Ike moves back to the grass for the second run off the layoff, and the price might be appealing enough with a runner like Charging almost sure to take some cash here. Think #5 Monet Never and #6 Eternal Bliss also fit the bill well enough.

Keeneland - Race #6

#9 Bound for Nowhere	The price is going to be super short here, but this guy stands out in this spot while meeting the conditions for not having won a race since July 4 by two days...when he won a Grade II at Woodbine last year. Huge class edge makes him tough, and he has a history of firing big races fresh.
#1 Divine Leader	Think this guy has a little bit of appeal at a price, as he's got a little bit of early pace in a race mostly lacking speed. Wouldn't be a shock to see him in the mix early and hang for a share late.
#5 Purple Dream	The recent form on synthetic is pretty solid, and he's worth a look back on the turf while in form that's as good as he's ever been. Still feels like a stretch on top without a big misfire from the chalk.
Race Summary	Bound for Nowhere makes his 9-year-old debut, so I suppose there are reasons to think about opposing him, but he's a $1.2m earner with multiple graded stakes wins racing in a third-level allowance. Assuming the fact that he's back to the races means he's got enough left in the tank to handle these.

Keeneland - Race #8

#6 Shad Nation	Think she has a little bit of price appeal while racing off the bench with a pretty reliable baseline effort, and she might have a shot in here if she progressed at all into her 4-year-old season.
#7 Broadway Boogie	Wouldn't be any surprise to see her land this one at a short price, as she wasn't badly beaten with Grade III company last out off a romping win in her first marathon try. Hits hard here.
#5 Light Stars	She's back off the bench out of the same barn as the top choice, and she already showed a liking for this trip over the local course in her last effort before the layoff. Best stuff fits.
Race Summary	Shad Nation needs to move forward a bit if she's going to claim to honors today, but I'm hoping she will take that step in the right direction in the seasonal debut.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#6 FROLIC MAN (4-1)	Arrived from Gulfstream out of a race that produced repeat winners I’ll Figure It Out (6-23, $102k) and Little Juanito (14-1 upset, 83 Beyer in $16k/nw3 sprint) and followed suit with a 9-1 upset of his own. He benefited from a lively pace, but he swung 7-wide from the rail at the quarter-mile pole to begin his winning rally. He surged clear late in a manner that suggests he can notch his first win at 7F today.
#2 CREATIVE CLOUD (2-1)	Upstaged a series of in-the-money finishes at this distance with a victory two starts back despite drifting in the final furlong. His head was turned sideways at the start last out, causing him to trail into the turn before making up some ground on the dueling leaders to finish third. The probable favorite changes riders for the fourth consecutive start.
#3 CATCHING FISH (6-1)	An interesting longshot in a pace-controlling role. Two starts ago, he veered in at the start, bumped a rival and dueled to the stretch through faster fractions than a same-day, $75,000 optional claiming race for fillies and mares before fading. He returned on short rest and was a non- factor, now switches to a barn that won with two recent acquisitions at 7F at 6-1 and 4-1 odds.
Race Summary	FROLIC MAN has been much improved of late and appears the best value despite an unproven track record at 7F. CREATIVE CLOUD is a deserving, but likely undervalued, favorite. CATCHING FISH could take some catching at a tempting price. Bet on FROLIC MAN to win and place and play 6-2 and 6-3 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6

#10 CANADIAN AUTHORITY (6-1)	Dam won 13 races and $481k on turf, gets Lasix for debut.
#1 WOW WISH (3-1)	Followed moves of top pair, in tight at eighth pole, objection was disallowed.
#8 NOT A PRAYER (20-1)	Showed speed, must use in gimmicks in second start for high-percentage barn.
Race Summary	CANADIAN AUTHORITY, a $42,000 sales buy, has the ingredients to win at first asking. He stepped it up a notch for his most recent workout, his trainer is 2-for-4 with MSW debut runners in the last year and his dam, Karakorum Elektra, was a stakes winner and $481k earner on the lawn. Bet to win and place and play a 1-8-10 exacta box.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9

#10 SIGN AND SEAL (12-1)	Deceptively good effort for new barn, lacked stretch kick off layoff.
#4 LIGEA (2-1)	Gained ground late on winning favorite, ran second in repeat attempt.
#1 LILY’S LEAD (7-2)	Belongs at this level, where she finished in the money twice recently.
Race Summary	SIGN AND SEAL was squeezed back to mid-pack before the first turn, made a steady 3-wide advance to a brief lead turning for home and flattened out to finish fourth. She draws outside but could upset with a move forward in her second start off a six-month layoff for her new barn. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 1:20P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 26, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BAD KARMA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BAD KARMA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROMANTI C JEWEL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TAPALONG: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse 's third or fourth start after a layoff.
4	BAD KARMA	9/5	5/2
2	ROMANTIC JEWEL	2/1	6/1
5	TAPALONG	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	ROMANTIC JEWEL	2	2/1	Front-runner	75	64	56.8	46.0	40.0
4	BAD KARMA	4	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	70	63	61.0	60.4	57.9
3	BISCOTTINI	3	5/2	Trailer	64	56	26.8	53.4	45.9
5	TAPALONG	5	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	68	46.4	48.6	43.6
6	W H LITTLE MISS GO	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.0	30.4	18.9
1	CASCABRIA	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	67	29.2	45.6	37.1

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 1/2 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $120,000 • Post: 4:44P
KEE - R8 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $24,000 TWICE OVER NINE FURLONGS ON THE TURF SINCE FEBRUARY 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $23,400 OVER NINE FURLONGS SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE AND FIVE-EIGHTHS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * LIGHT STARS (FR): Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has run well at a major foreign track. MISS YEARWOOD: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BROADWAY BOOGIE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	LIGHT STARS (FR)	4/1	9/2
2	MISS YEARWOOD	9/2	5/1
7	BROADWAY BOOGIE	9/5	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BROADWAY BOOGIE	7	9/5	Stalker	96	95	83.6	88.6	81.1
3	BRAVO KITTEN	3	8/1	Stalker	95	87	82.2	86.2	77.7
6	SHAD NATION	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	85	73.6	84.0	70.5
4	LADY ARSINOE	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	83	68.4	83.4	68.4
5	LIGHT STARS (FR)	5	4/1	Trailer	97	99	104.2	91.3	84.8
2	MISS YEARWOOD	2	9/2	Trailer	102	105	81.9	98.0	90.5
1	FEDERALIST PAPERS	1	6/1	Trailer	98	91	80.8	84.6	74.6
9	FLATTER ME SILLY	9	15/1	Trailer	95	92	63.6	93.2	87.7
8	YA BEAUTY (GB)	8	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	87	67.8	66.3	54.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MATLOCK 8/1
# 8 REPREHEND 5/1
# 3 CHARLIES MEDAL 7/2

MATLOCK is tough to overlook as the bet in here and could score at a price in here. Ought to be given a chance - I like the numbers from the last competition. A solid 85 avg class figure may give this colt a distinct class edge against this group of animals. REPREHEND - He has garnered formidable numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group. Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. CHARLIES MEDAL - Has to be carefully examined based on the quite good speed rating put up in the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8 - Post: 4:18pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#8 BEASTIE GIRL (ML=8/1)
#1 LILY'S LEAD (ML=9/2)
#7 RAINOUT (ML=12/1)


BEASTIE GIRL - Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Tampa Bay Downs. The move down in class should suit her well. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class figure in the field. LILY'S LEAD - Was in the Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. That affair had a class rating of 94 and she is moving down right here. A certain serious competitor. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. A pretty good sign she will be very competitive in this race on the turf. Just look at her most recent speed figure, 69. That one looks good in this bunch. RAINOUT - Lerman has a very strong win percent in turf routes. This mare should be fit and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LIGEIA (ML=2/1), #6 THEUNCAPTUREDLADY (ML=3/1),

LIGEIA - Hasn't been on the Tampa Bay Downs oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. This low class level horse is going to have to give a gutty effort today after those last two stretch drives. THEUNCAPTUREDLADY - Hard to wager on these non-winning types at less than generous odds. This mare raced well on April 1st finishing second, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 BEASTIE GIRL to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,7,8] with [1,7,8] with [1,2,6,7,8] with [1,2,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[1,7,8] with [1,7,8] with [1,6,7,8] with [1,2,3,6,7,8] with [1,2,3,6,7,8] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 4:18pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,400 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#3 EXECUTIVE ACTION (ML=4/1)
#6 GODGUNSNCOUNTRY (ML=3/1)


EXECUTIVE ACTION - I look for this pony to sit chilly and make a strong move on the turn, cruising straight on to the wire. Look for this one to go to the winner's circle at some pretty good odds in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the wire. This horse didn't run well on a track listed as good in his last start at Turf Paradise. You should toss that performance. GODGUNSNCOUNTRY - After the contest aboard this horse on April 11th, the rider is going to 'know' the gelding much better. A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a sharp contest is a good signal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TOIL AND TROUBLE (ML=2/1), #1 BEL RAGAZZO (ML=5/1), #2 GHOSTER (ML=6/1),

TOIL AND TROUBLE - Tough to keep chasing this sort of 'hanger' horse. BEL RAGAZZO - This was a hot horse, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to be leery of this one. Notched a most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race in a $10,000 Claiming race on April 3rd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure. GHOSTER - I'd like to see more hospitable recent showings with M/L odds of 6/1. Garnered a most unsatisfactory speed figure last out in a $10,000 Claiming race on April 12th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 EXECUTIVE ACTION on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11800 Class Rating: 74

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 26 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 TIZ HANDSOME 8/1
# 8 MYSTIC POINT 7/2
# 4 DREAMERS REWARD 9/2

TIZ HANDSOME seems to be the wager in here and could score at a price in here. Will most likely compete solidly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this field. Is a definite contender - given the 68 speed figure from his most recent race. With a formidable 66 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. MYSTIC POINT - With a reliable 68 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. With a very good 80 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. DREAMERS REWARD - It's a good sign that Graci is using Villegas on this entrant. Villegas and Graci are a strong pair for dividends.