Sunday 4/30/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:50 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/30/23

April 30, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Boss Lady; 5-Kleen Karma
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Boss Lady was a stylish and unexpected debut winner at 20-1 over the local turf course last month, drawing away with power to daylight her rivals, and while she may not have had much behind her the daughter of Street Boss did it the right way while giving indication that today’s extra furlong will only help. The Jeff Mullins-trained filly shows three easy breezes since raced and should be double tough right back despite the class hike to the first level allowance ranks. Kleen Karma certainly has an edge in experience over our top pick – she’s had 30 more races – and on pure numbers holds a significant edge based on her best outing. However, she’s 1-for-18 over the Santa Anita turf course and that win was accomplished down the Hill, not over today’s flat course. We’ll toss her in on a backup ticket while reserving the main punch for Boss Lady.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Issa Court
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Issa Court shows up in a $20,000 claimer after a series of disappointing runs and seems likely to step forward significantly today while facing considerably softer opposition. She stretches out again, and from her favorable rail draw the daughter of Acclamation projects to be the controlling speed without need of being sent. Given the likely race flow, this should be easy pickings for the Dan Blacker-trained mare, who fits the bill as a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Going Mobile; 2-Last Call London
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast:There are two logical contenders based on a limited amount of information in this sprint for California-bred juveniles. Going Mobile was aggressively ridden in a three horse half mile gate drill last week and proved much the best when clocking good :47 flat. Not much more may be needed today. Last Call London is a sneaky San Luis Rey Downs shipper from the Peter Miller barn. His workout times look decent, and as a son of Stay Thirsty he has every right to be an early winner. In an unclassified field with little to work with, the best advice is to tread lightly.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Creatively
Backups/Savers: 4-Marinas Tina

Forecast: Creatively displayed some ability in a four race European campaign and could easily be a better type on this circuit after joining the Michael McCarthy barn. She’s a first-time Lasix user making her California debut in a soft maiden affair under top rider Juan Hernandez, and with a steady and healthy work tab to have her plenty fit the daughter of Zoffany looks well-spotted for a major effort. Marinas Tina finished with some interest to be third over this course and distance in a much tougher maiden affair than tasked with today. With another forward move, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly could be a dangerous late threat. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play, with the main gamble going to Creatively.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Texthelegend; 5-Yellow Brick
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Texthelegend just finished second to subsequent Santa Anita Derby-G1 third place finisher Skinner and there’s nobody in here even remotely as good as that colt. Making his first start since being gelded, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Justify earned a big number in his last outing, one that if repeated today should earn him his maiden diploma. Yellow Brick is a one-paced grinder who probably can’t beat a decent maiden, but on pure numbers he’s pretty close to our top pick and really won’t need to improve much to win. The son of Quality Road continues to work well for Richard Mandella and can be counted on for a solid effort if nothing else. We’ll prefer Texthelegend on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Duvet Day; 5-Queen Ofthe Temple
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Duvet Day and Queen Ofthe Temple are the proven turf marathoners in this year’s edition of the 12 furlong Santa Barbara Stakes for fillies and mares, having finished one-two in the similar Astra Stakes over this course and distance earlier this season. They’re hard to separate, each having beaten the other on occasion, so we won’t split hairs and simply concede that the winner likely will be one or the other. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

*

RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ultimate Gamble; 3-Katonah
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Ultimate Gamble is a progressive 3-year-old fresh from a convincing maiden winner in his sophomore debut over a distance of ground earlier this month. The speed figure was strong, and this $1.75 million son of Medaglia d’Oro should step forward with that bit of experienced behind him. If the Mark Glatt-trained colt is going to be worth the kind of money that he brought at auction he really must beat this field. Katonah has numbers that fit with our top pick but with eight prior starts already certainly has room for less improvement. Nonetheless, the son of Klimt has good tactical speed and could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed without undue pressure. Give that type of trip, he may be difficult to run down.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Quatroelle; 5-Closing Remarks
Backups/savers: 3-Rhea Moon

Forecast: Evenly matched middle distance grass fillies and mares who know each other well square off again, this time in the Wilshire Stakes-G3 over a flat mile. Quattroelle has won her last two races and could easily extend to her streak to three if she can maintain her sharp recent form. Most effective when held up and produced late, the Irish-bred mare has an excellent turn of foot, and there should be enough pace up front to compliment her style. Closing Remarks projects to draft into a comfortable second flight stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. If things break her way, she can repeat her clever recent victory in the Royal Heroine St.-G3. Rhea Moon won the American Oaks-G1 impressively in late December, was given some time off, and returns for trainer Phil D’Amato with a slow and easy series of workouts. It’s hard to say how cranked up she is – this could easily be just a prep for bigger and better things down the road – but on her best day the Irish-bred filly absolute can run these.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Super Chief; 2-My Man Bags
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Super Chief was an impressive debut winner here last year but then disappeared. He returns with a series of sharp, quick drills that should have him fit and ready. The rail post does him no favors; if he breaks running he’s pretty much obligated to make the pace inside under pressure and that won’t be an easy task at this extended sprint distance. We still like him but will also include My Man Bags, a sharp gate-to-wire winner with a career top speed figure when facing state bred foes in mid-March. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding can win on the front end or employ stalk and pounce tactics; in either case he is the one to fear most.

*

RACE 10: Post: 5:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Unjokable; Jai Ho
Backups/savers: 4-Jensco

Forecast: Unjokable ran twice in Dubai this past winter, finishing fourth in the 1000 Guineas Trial in her racing debut and then winding up a distant third in the Guineas itself, beaten nine lengths by two very good fillies. She makes her U.S. debut in a soft maiden turf sprint and based on her overseas form she should be highly competitive and arguably the one to beat. Jai Ho brought $175,000 at Timonium last April, sat out her entire 2-year-old season, and finally makes it to the races for clever trainer Mark Glatt, whose first timers often run better than they work. The daughter of Mendelssohn has looked good in recent drills and should be ready for a major effort first time out. Jensco has done some solid work in the a.m. for trainer John Shirreffs and is likely to be competitive. She doesn’t really have a grass pedigree and the barn rarely wins with first timers but this daughter of Gormley probably is worth including on your ticket as a backup or a saver.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #2

#1 Prada's Miracle	She caught a runaway winner in that last one, but she proved a better fit at this sort of level last out and wouldn't be a surprise if one of the forward players can't see this out.
#4 Pretty in Prado	She finished a few lengths in front of the top choice last time out and should get another big jump on that one. Her best stuff comes on the engine, so she's a big danger if nobody adds any heat early.
#7 Lotta Roses	She makes sense in here with her best stuff, but she needs to turn some tables in a big way off the dud in the local debut at 4/5. Wouldn't want to be here at too short a price in start number 14.
Race Summary	Prada's Miracle makes her second start off the bench with some room to come forward, and she seemed like a good fit with this kind last out. Playable as maybe the second or third choice?

Hawthorne - Race #5

#6 Slava Ukraini	He showed little in the comeback at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but he's in for a tag for the first time while getting around two turns, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him move forward today for a team that has been doing good work.
#5 Electric Charge	He's the one to beat in here while stepping up a bit in price, but either of his last two running lines would make him tough with this group. Capable but overbet?
#8 Fabricator	His only route try didn't go that well, but he has been in some deeper spots in Florence than he's going to find here, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him come along for a share.
Race Summary	Slava Ukraini has some mid-range price appeal in here while going second off the layoff, and I'm hoping he got a little something out of the dull comeback try. Maybe he just didn't like the footing in Indiana.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#6 W W Candy	He rallied with some enthusiasm last out when returning in a fast race, and there might be enough speed lined up in here to set things up for his late run. Reliable finisher fits.
#7 Wildwood Sicilian	He has a big claim on this one with a perfect draw for his pace-prompting style, and he's going to be tough to handle if he is able to hold his form in the second start off the bench.
#3 Hela	He might be just a touch light on form to land this, but I think he has a chance to outrun his price with a better effort today. Tactical speed should be in the right spot turning for home.
Race Summary	W W Candy might offer a price that's just playable today, and I think the setup is honest enough on paper for him to pick them up late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:51 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - April 30

Apr. 29, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 BOSS LADY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Boss Lady	G Franco
PLACE	4-1	3	Hotitude	J Bravo
SHOW	8-5	5	Kleen Karma	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Big Hopes	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Squared Shady	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Vella	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 ISSA COURT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	1	Issa Court	R A Vazquez
PLACE	3-1	2	Lucy L	A Aguilar
SHOW	5-2	3	Beachgrass	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	4-1	4	California Gigi	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Roses R Blue	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 4 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Going Mobile	T J Pereira
PLACE	5-2	2	Last Call London	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	7	Micis Express	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Thirsty Thursday	A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	I Will Be King	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Thirsty Gambler	E Garcia

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SAREEHA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	1	Sareeha	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	5-2	4	Marinas Tina	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-2	6	Luminiferous	M E Smith
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Creatively	J J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Magic Light	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	7	Happy Happy	D Van Dyke

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	5	Yellow Brick	R A Vazquez
PLACE	2-1	1	Texthelegend	J J Hernandez
SHOW	3-1	7	Palagio	J Bravo
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Flat On	M E Smith

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Blue Dog	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Seventeen Black	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX

RACE #6 $100,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Duvet Day	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	5	Queen Ofthe Temple	J Bravo
SHOW	4-1	1	Exit Soul	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Scarabea	T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Jibber Jabber	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	6	Seisai	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #7 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:06 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	2	Ultimate Gamble	M E Smith
PLACE	2-1	3	Katonah	T J Pereira
SHOW	4-1	5	Mastering	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Zimba Warrior	K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Got Thunder	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Ghazaaly	C Barbosa

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Rhea Moon	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	5	Closing Remarks	J Bravo
SHOW	2-1	7	Quattroelle	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Macadamia	T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Very Scary	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Canoodling	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

RACE #9 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Super Chief	D A Herrera
PLACE	5-2	2	My Man Bags	A Aguilar
SHOW	4-1	4	Stay in the Game	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Moose Mitchell	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Royal Halo	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	El Diablo Rojo	G Franco

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #10 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:39 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	La Peer	R A Vazquez
PLACE	7-2	5	Foolish	A Aguilar
SHOW	8-1	7	Socially Smart	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	15-1	10	Strikingly	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Unjokable	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Carson Jen	D Van Dyke

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 5/7/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:53 AM

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - April 30

Apr. 29, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-1	4	Worthiness	C A Torres
PLACE	9-2	2	Old School Flash	I Castillo
SHOW	7-2	1	Bootlegging Girl	K R Jordan
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Altar Girl	J K Court

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1A	Sophies Star	A Pusac
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	I Guess Not	K J Asmussen

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #2 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SIDETOWN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Sidetown	C A Torres
PLACE	8-1	9	Tillis	M Garcia
SHOW	3-1	2	Dial in for Lute	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Trappe Valley	K J Asmussen

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Morning Snow	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Ojitos	C Bailey

* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 DARYLS BOLT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Daryls Bolt	C A Torres
PLACE	7-2	3	Permafrost	K J Asmussen
SHOW	5-1	4	Moon Over Dubai	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	2-1	2	Humor Me Now	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Chrome Run	E Medellin
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1	Impeccability	K R Jordan

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #4 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:06 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	1	Impressor	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	2	El Gemar	I Castillo
SHOW	7-2	6	Five O Fox	T Wales
WILD CARD	20-1	4	Joe Bill	K J Asmussen

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	8	Sunsign	N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Leola	W De La Cruz

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #5 $32,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:38 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	R Doc	C A Torres
PLACE	9-2	2	Luck of the Draw	M Garcia
SHOW	6-1	4	Happy Boy Rocket	R Zimmerman
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Rum n Tonic	W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Xylophone	C Bailey
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Trivista	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/10 BOX

RACE #6 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Coromandel	F Arrieta
PLACE	3-1	11	Preordained	K R Jordan
SHOW	4-1	1	Honeycamp	W De La Cruz
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Sweet Holiness	J K Court

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Tiz a Strategy	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	12	Pats Gal	K Harr

* EXACTA: 4-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/11 BOX, 1/8/11 BOX

RACE #7 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Jets a Ginnin	C A Torres
PLACE	9-5	6	Silvia	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-1	1	Argumental	I Castillo
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Hartley	K R Jordan

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Comedy Act	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	8	Off Ramp	G Saez

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #8 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 ALL WEST

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	All West	M Murrill
PLACE	7-2	2	Mamzooj	F Arrieta
SHOW	6-1	5	Jedrek	N Juarez
WILD CARD	3-1	9	Ten Gauge	K J Asmussen

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Mystic Night	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	U S Navy Cross	C A Torres

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX

RACE #9 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	7	Gramercy Park	F Arrieta
PLACE	20-1	6	Music Mistress	W De La Cruz
SHOW	5-2	10	One Way Or Another	M Garcia
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Ms Carroll County	K Harr

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Sassy Lass	C Bailey
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Lassie My Girl	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:53 AM

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - April 30

Apr. 29, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	5	Lyrical	L Sosa
PLACE	2-1	2	Moon Me Again	A Santos
SHOW	5-2	6	Bayou Melody	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Jlo Can Dance	S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Celestial Orb	M Martin
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Takestwotowiggle	R Mitchell

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #2 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	6	Nicolino	D Centeno
PLACE	5-1	4	Ladyness	A Santos
SHOW	3-1	5	Countless Dreams	L Sosa
WILD CARD	2-1	2	Pearlintherough	J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Win Or Cellar	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	High Arabian	J Alicea

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #3 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Leopardi	S Camacho
PLACE	4-1	1	Colors	M Fuentes
SHOW	8-5	5	Garmento	M Meneses
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Calzone	L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Tapintoyourbeer	A S Arroyo
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Shipwreck	R D Allen Jr.

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #4 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MINELLA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	2	Minella	M Meneses
PLACE	7-2	3	Gods Glory	S Camacho
SHOW	4-1	6	Copazo	A S Arroyo
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Go Green	L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Coco Shell	D Centeno
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Third Moon	J C Ferrer

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

RACE #5 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:51 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	8	Big Bucksalot	J C Ferrer
PLACE	5-2	4	Nicos Having Fun	S Camacho
SHOW	7-2	7	Prince Ghost	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Second Wave	R D Allen Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Favorite Light	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Tripp Wildcat	D Delgado

* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #6 $32,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:23 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 RISKY TIZZY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Risky Tizzy	A S Arroyo
PLACE	7-2	7	Bella Faccia	M Meneses
SHOW	5-2	3	Mirandas Rocky	M Jimenez
WILD CARD	5-1	1	My June Bug	S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Verifiable	M Martin
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Most Divine	G Garcia

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #7 $32,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 SOPHIAS PRINCE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	2	Sophias Prince	L Sosa
PLACE	3-1	8	Bold Advance	S Camacho
SHOW	6-1	5	City Humor	A S Arroyo
WILD CARD	6-1	1	The Great Cesar	M Meneses

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Motivo	M Martin
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Sir Robert Hall	J C Ferrer

* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX

RACE #8 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	14	Toyi	S Camacho
PLACE	5-2	6	The Point Road	H Villa-Gomez
SHOW	3-1	2	Feuilleton	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Kalinba	M Meneses

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	My Big Drama	R Mitchell
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	11	Magic Wizard	M Allen

* EXACTA: 14-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/14 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:53 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - April 30

Apr. 29, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
4^th race [NY, Md 25000, 6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:54 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race 7	WPS (12% Takeout) / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta $1 Daily Double
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 5:12P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (PREFERENCE BY CONDITION ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * W W CANDY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MALPAIS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MIDNIGHT ESCAPE: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. WILDWOOD SICILIAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dista nce/surface.
6	W W CANDY	3/1	5/1
5	MALPAIS	7/2	6/1
4	MIDNIGHT ESCAPE	9/2	7/1
7	WILDWOOD SICILIAN	5/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	MIDNIGHT ESCAPE	4	9/2	Front-runner	91	96	93.4	89.2	84.7
5	MALPAIS	5	7/2	Front-runner	99	99	93.2	94.2	87.7
7	WILDWOOD SICILIAN	7	5/2	Front-runner	96	95	91.0	86.6	78.6
1	CAN MAN DO	1	8/1	Front-runner	88	93	80.2	73.2	64.7
3	HELA	3	12/1	Stalker	91	84	81.4	82.4	70.4
6	W W CANDY	6	3/1	Trailer	96	95	58.2	95.4	90.9
2	LUCKY SHOT	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	87	82.8	76.6	65.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:54 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for AqueductPURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 4	Exacta ($1), Quinella ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 4 &5 Pick 3 ($1) (4-6), Mandatory Payout Pick 6 ($1) (4-9)
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 3:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID)(IF NO THREE YEAR OLDS ARE ENTERED, STARTING WEIGHT SHALL BE 122 LBS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PRINCESS SONYA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCESS SONYA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	PRINCESS SONYA	9/5	6/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	PRINCESS SONYA	6	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	68	64	89.9	54.8	50.3
1	MRS BELL	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	50	38.2	42.4	36.4
3	WINE GODDESS	3	6/1	Trailer	64	38	33.4	42.0	38.0
7	MY GORGEOUS	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	48.0	31.4	22.4
5	LA CHANCE	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	47	38.8	23.0	16.5

Unknown Running Style: AKIVA (15/1) [Jockey: Richards Gary - Trainer: Chichakly Amira], IRISH JACKSON (2/1) [Jockey: Cancel Eric - Trainer: Weaver George].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:54 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sun Ray Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $29800 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 EAGLE NAMED JESS 8/1
# 5 HS TRIGGER 12/1
# 8 MILAGRO LADY 8/1

I back EAGLE NAMED JESS for this race and could score at a price in here. Players should take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (66 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Her earnings per start in short races alone makes you take a look at her. HS TRIGGER - Have to bet on this money-making jockey and trainer tandem. He has very strong class ratings, averaging 82, and has to be given consideration in this competition. MILAGRO LADY - With Ramos uptop her, this filly will probably be able to break out quickly in this event. This filly has some longshot angles I like to play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#2 MUNGO MAGIC (ML=6/1)

MUNGO MAGIC - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your betting money onto this jockey/conditioner combination. Rode this mount on April 16th and Boyce is right back in the irons today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DISTANT FIRE (ML=5/2), #6 NEUTRAL (ML=3/1), #8 GOLDEN REMEDY (ML=9/2),

DISTANT FIRE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since April 1st. Not even any works. NEUTRAL - Today's contest is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair in the last two months. Not the greatest of signs. Never really did much at all last out on Mar 18th. Hard to wager on today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MUNGO MAGIC - Trainer (Wilson) dropped this mount last out, and keeps him at the same class today. According to my calculations, this class level suits him well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 MUNGO MAGIC on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:06pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 EL GEMAR (ML=5/2)
#1 IMPRESSOR (ML=7/5)

EL GEMAR - On board this thoroughbred on April 7th and Castillo is back again in the irons today. I sense an early battle developing here. If that happens, this colt will be in perfect position to reel in the leaders. Dropped down in class last race out, running against the same type today. IMPRESSOR - It looks like Torres had to 'know' this gelding on April 8th when riding him for the first time. Back on board again today. The April 8th event at Oaklawn Park was at a class level of (77). Dropping to a lower class rank considerably, so he should be in a good position to win. This entrant collects a lot of money per start. I believe he can increase that total right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FIVE O FOX (ML=7/2), #7 MALORIE'S BIG BOY (ML=8/1),

FIVE O FOX - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs of late. Not likely to see him doing it this time either. Tough to support any thoroughbred that runs as well as he did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all. MALORIE'S BIG BOY - The Equibase speed figures continue to drop, 59/55/42. Not a positive signal. Finished ninth in his most recent race with a mediocre rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 EL GEMAR is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2023, 08:55 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 20

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. 1# A CLASF.$8,000 ALLOWED 1 LBS. 2# A CLASF. INFERIOR Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 COMPASIVO 2/1
# 2 DULCES LABIOS 20/1
# 3 ALOMAR 7/2

COMPASIVO is the top bet in this race. Diaz should be able to get this colt to break out sharply in this race. DULCES LABIOS - Hiraldo will probably be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this competition. ALOMAR - He should have a good showing versus this softer bunch.