Monday 5/1/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:32 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 1, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway begins the week with a 10-race card. The feature goes in Race 8, an Open Pace with a $36,000 purse, The Pick 5 sequence gets underway in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

1-Flow With Joe (5/2)-This is a legit $40k claimer who was facing $50k claimers and drops to a very soft spot. Could take command early on and not look back, that's what should happen. But not feeling overly confident so will look to others that have more value.
4-Pinebush Lifesaver (9/2)-Makes the 2nd start for the Jen B barn after being claimed for $30,000 and takes a good drop. Raced from the back versus $40k claimers last week and closed well. The 0-43 at Yonkers is tough to swallow but this 5-year-old lands in a nice spot to pick up a win if Joe doesn't have his fast ball.
5-Silent Splendor (6-1)-Was bet hard and beat the class below NW5000L5 and now steps up to the level of the previous start when the 5-year-old finished a close 2nd. Dube should have the pedal down and could land in a cozy seat. Similar to the one above, is worth a swing, and could be a trip out candidate.

Race 8-

1-Ultimaroca (2-1)-Winner of 3 straight, comes back in sequence and looked full of pace in the last win. Brennan takes over for Gingras and that shouldn't hurt chances. This won't be a cake walk but could take control when the wings fold. Appears to be a clean trip away from taking its 4th straight picture.

Race 9

4-The Ideal Dancer A (5/2)-Drops after a big try from post 8 versus some tough customers. Had to rally wide after cover stalled and did get the top. But then lost by a nostril to Semi Tough who came from way back to snatch the win. Faces a beatable field, and with this post draw Brennan, who takes over for Bartlett, should get a good early seat without using up much gas. Then the 8-year-old can make a big move and roll by down the lane.

Race 10

4-Change Stride N (3-1)-Discounting the recent starts in the slop this veteran has been in the hunt versus $40k claimers and sealed the deal when dropped to this level last week. It seems like 3-Pedro Hanover who is the 9/5 chalk, could be bet down off that line and should be battling with this guy down the lane. My lean is here to the horse who is making his 3rd start off an injured scratch, can finish off a mile, and should be the better price.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4,5/1/4/4
Total Bet=$3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:32 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #1

#2 Rock on Kitten	His form is all over the place, but almost all of it came against much better than he's going to find here. Price might be right to see if he can get back to that December try -- a repeat of that might do the trick.
#7 Reinsure	He has run ok over the local footing in the past, and the recent Mahoning running lines look competitive with these. Might get the right kind of spying trip.
#5 Strike a Beat	He has an even kind of running style, but his baseline running lines fit well in here, and he's got more consistent lines than many of the rest in here.
Race Summary	Rock on Kitten has a little appeal at a price in the opener, as he's capable of the kind of race it'd take to win this, and he has faced better company than this over the course of the last year.

Thistledown - Race #6

#7 Cavaletto	He wasn't up to the task in stakes company off the maiden win, but he's a much better fit here and should be in line for a perfect trip while getting first jump.
#6 Into Gold	He's an honest type, but he tends to settle for smaller shares, and it wouldn't be any shock to see him find one or two who were a bit too good for him today.
#4 Lotsa Matcha	He has some room to improve while cutting back around one turn, as he has shown a bit of finishing ability that might serve him well in a race full of chasing types.
Race Summary	Cavaletto ran well in his only local try, and he gets some class relief after trying a stakes crew last out. Think his baseline effort keeps him right there.

Thistledown - Race #8

#4 Nice Ace	He turned in a dull try before heading to the bench, but he owned pretty solid form prior to that. Think he gets a good spying run of things today if he's ready to roll off the layoff.
#1/1A Elkhorn Oaks entry	Both halves of the entry fit in here, but I do think they might both be just a touch better going longer, so I wonder if today is the right day to take a shot against them coming off the bench in what might be a prep race.
#6 Woodland Walk	He's one of the more committed forward players, but he owns a little bit of versatility that might work in his favor here. I respect him on form, but he's making the layoff run to start his 12-year-old season and has to prove he's still the same horse this time around.
Race Summary	Nice Ace should be right up on the splits here, and he has a little class to him as a two-time stakes winner last season. Hoping the entry takes a lot of cash.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:33 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8

#8 CANONIZE (7-2)	Packs late kick, good fit at this level, lack of pace the concern.
#7 SWEET BAKER (6-1)	Drops, could get jump on main contenders, use in all gimmicks.
#5 LOVE MY RIDE (3-1)	Rallied into fast pace when last seen chasing odds-on winner.
Race Summary	Amazingly, seven entrants make their seasonal debut in the $7,500 claiming race for Oklahoma breds. Canonize at least has 1-2-3 finishes in his last six starts to summon and a strong rally into photo finish view the last time he raced fresh. Bet to win and place and play a 5-7-8 exacta box.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #1

#4 WHIP (2-1)	Emerged from 4-way duel for lead, held safe to win, can control pace as day’s Best Bet.
#3 RONALD DALE (3-1)	Taken off rail, rallied 6-wide into photo finish, second in prior 6F try for $5,000.
#6 YOU SEXY BOY (6-1)	Gets class relief, can use his speed well, seeks first win at this distance.
Race Summary	WHIP pressed the pace 4-wide, shook clear at the top of the stretch and held off the fast-closing second favorite to prevail in his seasonal debut. He runs for the cheapest claiming price of his career and holds a decided tactical advantage. Bet to win and place.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#1 OKIE FRONT (4-1)	Hooked stakes-placed rival in last pair, good fit with these in third start back.
#4 CASINO QUEEN (5-2)	Demolished weak field to improve to 5-for-11 at Will Rogers.
#3 SCARLET POSITION (2-1)	Plays to a steady beat but ended winless drought in four-horse field.
Race Summary	OKIE FRONT held second at 5F in her first start this year against Adria (5-14, $106k), who beat her again in allowance company and was stakes-placed recently. She finished first or second in 4 of 7 starts here and could get back on the winning track. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:34 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 5	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 57 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 2:28P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. WITHOUT A VIEW is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WITHOUT A VIEW: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROLIN N CONTROLIN: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE: Horse has the highest average Equib ase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SCARF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	WITHOUT A VIEW	9/2	3/1
4	ROLIN N CONTROLIN	7/2	8/1
2	SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE	8/1	9/1
5	SCARF	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ROLIN N CONTROLIN	4	7/2	Stalker	56	46	63.6	39.8	31.3
6	WITHOUT A VIEW	6	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	63	53	67.4	51.2	44.7
5	SCARF	5	4/1	Trailer	63	51	59.6	47.4	43.4
3	ANOTHER SAUCY SIX	3	5/1	Trailer	57	47	31.2	47.0	40.0
2	SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	71	64	51.4	46.8	37.8
8	ADVOCATE HARBOR	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	56	50.2	38.6	29.6
7	FRIEDER FANATIC	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	39	44.6	33.0	18.5
1	BELLA MARIA	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	58	36.0	37.6	26.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:34 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ThistledownPURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta/ $1 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $.20 Pick 6 (Races 3-8) - 70% Carryover
Claiming $16,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 1:50P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PLAY BALL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f. GOLDEN MONEY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROYAL'D: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. MISTER MOBIL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH	9/2	5/1
1	PLAY BALL	3/1	5/1
4	GOLDEN MONEY	5/1	8/1
7	ROYAL'D	5/2	10/1
2	MISTER MOBIL	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	ROYAL'D	7	5/2	Front-runner	88	82	96.4	75.0	65.5
6	RONNI'S STORM	6	8/1	Front-runner	85	69	76.2	66.0	54.0
1	PLAY BALL	1	3/1	Front-runner	89	82	68.0	79.8	76.3
5	TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH	5	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	78	48.6	75.6	71.6
4	GOLDEN MONEY	4	5/1	Trailer	81	75	53.0	75.2	70.2
2	MISTER MOBIL	2	12/1	Trailer	81	79	52.0	70.4	61.4
3	TIZ A RUSH	3	12/1	Trailer	77	74	33.8	71.2	57.2
8	YOU'RE MY BOY BLUE	8	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	73	58.8	66.6	53.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:05pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,300 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#3 BROTHER AARON (ML=2/1)
#1 ELECTORAL (ML=4/1)

BROTHER AARON - Caldwell brings him back again. I suggest you stay with this hot gelding. Past Performances show this horse with 3 improving speed figures. Sanchez should be on a live horse in today's race. ELECTORAL - Took a drop in class in the last race, and keeps in that lower class right here. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. Changes tracks from last out at Remington Park to here. Multiple wins on different tracks tell me this horse likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SALADO (ML=7/5), #4 SWING WEST (ML=5/1),

SALADO - This gelding hasn't been getting the job done as the favorite. This animal ran his best speed figure in awhile. May bounce and run poorly off that try. SWING WEST - I can't play this habitual non-winner. Gets the task fulfilled once in a while. The finish position of fourth in the last affair shows me that this equine may be going off form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 BROTHER AARON to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18800 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CONFIDENT N ELITE 7/2
# 1 INGERSOLL 12/1
# 4 GOLQUIST 4/1

CONFIDENT N ELITE could be the bet in here. Could provide positive profits based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 73. As of late Mathes has provided bettors with a respectable winning percentage with horses moving in dirt sprint races. Looks very strong versus this group of horses and should be one of the leaders. INGERSOLL - This gelding with Cedillo in the saddle makes him a solid choice. Has performed very well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 53 avg speed figure. GOLQUIST - Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me think about this colt. This pony could stun this field at a solid price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 86

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 KOVACS 7/2
# 4 D K'S CROWN 3/1
# 5 SIR DEPUTY 5/2

I've got to go with KOVACS. Could beat this group of horses given the 86 Equibase speed fig recorded in his last outing. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong handicapping angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this group. D K'S CROWN - Could beat this group of animals given the 81 speed figure put up in his last outing. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (75 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. SIR DEPUTY - Win percentage one of the strongest in this group of animals. Has been running well lately and ought to be up on the lead early on.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2023, 06:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,300 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#7 BLUEGRASS CANDY (ML=8/1)
#6 GOLDEN ACCOUNT (ML=6/1)

BLUEGRASS CANDY - I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this mare is ready to run today. GOLDEN ACCOUNT - I like the fact that this mare's last fig, 62, is tops in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BEND THE KNEE (ML=9/5), #11 CHARM WEAVER (ML=3/1), #8 WESTLODGE INTRIGUE (ML=9/2),

BEND THE KNEE - You should normally wager against favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. Difficult to bet on any entrant in a sprint affair if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. CHARM WEAVER - Can't play this pony in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint contest of late. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a questionable challenger. WESTLODGE INTRIGUE - This racer didn't go to the front end and didn't close ground in the stretch last time she ran.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 BLUEGRASS CANDY is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**ConleyPicks** · 05-01-2023, 12:06 PM

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Houston w/Garcia -175 over San Francisco

**ConleyPicks** · 05-01-2023, 12:06 PM

Free play from Totals4U
Monday Free Selection: San Francisco Giants/Houston Astros over 9

**ConleyPicks** · 05-01-2023, 12:06 PM

Free play from #1 Sports
Monday's Free Play: Atlanta Braves - 240 (Game 1)

**ConleyPicks** · 05-01-2023, 12:07 PM

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Monday Hockey Selection From Lee
NEW YORK RANGERS -117

**ConleyPicks** · 05-01-2023, 12:07 PM

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Monday Free Play
LA Dodgers Gonsolin -155