Tuesday 5/2/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 2, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race program with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on an off track.

Race 11

4-Old Town Road (2-1)-The 5-year-old shouldn't mind an off track and the weather forecasts call for a rain/snow mix at the time of this writing. Lems is on #6 so Wrenn gets the assignment and there is little gate speed inside so an aggressive steer could be the plan.
7-Back In My Day (5/2)-Competes well at this level, this post will be a challenge but should be forwardly placed. Could be there at the wire with a sharp steer and has won 2 of 7 on an off track.

Race 12

2-Never Say Uncle (9/2)-Lems takes over for Merriman so the price should be a bit better and has the gate speed to land near the top of the stack. Took a picture on 3-7 at this level and has won 3 of 15 on an off track.
6-INXS (5/2)-Should fits nicely with this crew, gets a positive driver change as Wrenn will do the steering and makes its 4th straight start at Nfld. Should be a player with a good trip and has hit the board in 8 of 15 with 2 wins on an off track.
9-X O X O (4-1)-Burns a lot of money and normally my lean is away from this Rhoades trainee. Could follow the 2 off the gate and land in a good early seat. Might finally connect for a win with the right trip and shouldn't be an odds-on choice.

Race 13

1-Beach Forecast (9/5)-Short price and there are some questions marks as this 5-year-old makes its Nfld debut. Does have the gate speed to protect the rail and knows how to win. Winner of 8-31 last year should be a player if takes to the track.
4-Te Amo Blue Chip (2-1)-Steps up but has beaten better than this here in December. Myers could gun out and look to land on the point. Chances for a picture go up if on the lead at the top of the last turn or in the 2 hole.

Race 14

3-J C Onthebeach (4-1)-Has been on the shelf since 2-28 and tuned up with a nice qualifier on 4-20. Paced the back half in .57 and has won 12 of 60 on a wet surface. Should offer a fair price and can battle here if this 13-year-old fires hot off the bench.
9-He Can Fly N (9/5)-Comes off 2 even efforts versus better and had post 7 in both races. Drops to a soft spot and won the last time in at this level on 3-9. Drew off by almost 5 lengths but that was from post 3 not post 9.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,7/2,6,9/1,4/3,9
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:42 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw Rapid Reaction

May 1, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The 20-horse field (as well as 3 also-eligible runners) was drawn today at Churchill Downs for Saturday’s 149th edition of the $3 million Kentucky Derby. Forte, last year’s 2-Year-Old Champion, and winner of Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, was made the 3-1 favorite by track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, who set the official morning line for his 50th Kentucky Derby.

Horseplayers betting the Kentucky Derby (Saturday) and Kentucky Oaks (Friday) cards can enjoy a $10 money-back special on win bets if those selections finish second or third in any race either day.

Forte begins from post 15, which has produced 6 Kentucky Derby winners since the 1930 implementation of the mechanical starting gate, the last of which was Authentic in 2020. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won 2 Kentucky Derby renewals, 2010 with Super Saver and 2017 with Always Dreaming, the latter his only prior Derby post-time favorite from his record 62 career starters in the race.

Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice has had issues leaving the gate with interest, and his long, lumbering stride is best-utilized when able to stay outside in the clear. His draw of post 5 is a more difficult spot in terms of traffic than you’d like. Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move also has had some trouble in the initial stages in 6 of his 7 career starts. His draw of post 10 is amongst a group of early interests and will be interesting to see who gets away clean. Wood Memorial upsetter Lord Miles has been in a tangle at the start often in recent starts, he leaves from post 19 and shouldn’t cause any trouble.

The expected pace of this year’s Kentucky Derby is a cloudy forecast. UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake (post 17) and Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns (post 6) are the only major prep winners to lead wire-to-wire. Others who may contest the front early include Reincarnate (post 7), Verifying (post 2), Jace’s Road (post 12) and Mage (post 8). The clump of potential speed between posts 6-12 could cause those runners to hook up a bit faster than expected on paper. Couple that with Verifying likely having to gun from post 2.

No horse has won the Derby from posts 1-3 since Real Quiet in 1998 from the 3-hole. Affirmed (1978 Triple Crown winner) was the last to win from post 2, while Ferdinand (1986) the last to capture the roses from the rail draw. Last year, Rich Strike became the second horse ever to win from post 20, joining Big Brown (2008). Among the great anomalies, post 17 has never had a Derby winner.

Rocket Can and Sun Thunder race with blinkers on.

149th Kentucky Derby // Saturday // Churchill Downs // Race 12 // 6:57 pm ET

#1-Hit Show (Manny Franco//Brad Cox) 30-1
#2-Verifying (Tyler Gaffalione//Brad Cox) 15-1
#3-Two Phil’s (Jareth Loveberry//Larry Rivelli) 12-1
#4-Confidence Game (James Graham//Keith Desormeaux) 20-1
#5-Tapit Trice (Luis Saez//Todd Pletcher) 5-1
#6-Kingsbarns (Jose Ortiz//Todd Pletcher) 12-1
#7-Reincarnate (John Velazquez//Tim Yakteen) 50-1
#8-Mage (Javier Castellano//Gustavo Delgado) 15-1
#9-Skinner (Juan Hernandez//John Shirreffs) 20-1
#10-Practical Move (Ramon Vazquez//Tim Yakteen) 10-1
#11-Disarm (Joel Rosario//Steve Asmussen) 30-1
#12-Jace’s Road (Florent Geroux//Brad Cox) 15-1
#13-Sun Thunder (Brian Hernandez Jr.//Kenny McPeek) 30-1
#14-Angel of Empire (Flavien Prat//Brad Cox) 8-1
#15-Forte (Irad Ortiz Jr.//Todd Pletcher) 3-1
#16-Raise Cain (Gerardo Corrales//Ben Colebrook) 50-1
#17-Derma Sotogake (Christophe Lemaire//Hidetaki Otonashi) 10-1
#18-Rocket Can (Junior Alvardo//Bill Mott) 30-1
#19-Lord Miles (Paco Lopez//Saffie Joseph Jr) 30-1
#20-Continuar (Ryusei Sakai//Yoshito Yahagi) 50-1

Also-Eligible (scratch deadline Friday at 9 am ET):

#21-Cyclone Mischief (Joel Rosario//Dale Romans) 30-1
#22-Mandarin Hero (Kazushi Kimura//Terunobu Fujita) 20-1
#23-King Russell (Rafael Bejarano//Ron Moquett) 50-1

//

Friday’s 149th Kentucky Oaks also was drawn at Monday’s ceremony. The capacity field of 14 (with 3 also-eligibles) includes Oaklawn sophomore filly series standout Wet Paint, who drew post 7 and is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The $1.25 million Oaks lineup also includes the father-son training matchup of Mark and Norm Casse. The former sends out 2022 Champion 2-Year-Old Filly Wonder Wheel (post 5, 12-1), while the latter saddles Fair Grounds Oaks winner Southlawn (post 4, 8-1). Pretty Mischievous (post 14, 10-1) adds blinkers for the first time.

149th Kentucky Oaks // Friday // Churchill Downs // Race 11 // 5:51 pm ET

#1-Mimi Kakushi (Mikael Barzelona//Salem bin Ghadayer) 20-1
#2-The Alys Look (Javier Castellano//Brad Cox) 15-1
#3-Gambling Girl (Irad Ortiz Jr.//Todd Pletcher) 15-1
#4-Southlawn (Rey Gutierrez//Norm Casse) 8-1
#5-Wonder Wheel (Joel Rosario//Mark Casse) 12-1
#6-Botanical (Chris Landeros//Brad Cox) 4-1
#7-Wet Paint (Flavien Prat//Brad Cox) 5-2
#8-Promiseher America (Jorge Vargas Jr.//Ray Handal) 30-1
#9-And Tell Me No Lies (Ramon Vazquez//Peter Miller) 15-1
#10-Flying Connection (Florent Geroux//Todd Fincher) 15-1
#11-Defining Purpose (Brian Hernandez Jr.//Kenny McPeek) 12-1
#12-Dorth Vader (Luis Saez//Mike Yates) 20-1
#13-Affirmative Lady (John Velazquez//Graham Motion) 10-1
#14-Pretty Mischievous (Tyler Gaffalione//Brendan Walsh) 10-1

Also-Eligible:
#15-Taxed (Rafael Bejarano//Randy Morse) 20-1
#16-Julia Shining (Luis Saez//Todd Pletcher) 15-1
#17-Hoosier Philly (Edgar Morales//Tom Amoss) 30-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:43 AM

Preakness Future Wager Business Brisk; Runs Through Saturday

May 1, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Horseplayers flocked to the inaugural Preakness Future Wager during its opening-weekend run with $110,612 bet in the $2 minimum win pool. The PFW remains open through 6 pm ET this Saturday just prior to the start of the Kentucky Derby. Expected Derby chalk Forte is the solid Preakness Future Wager favorite at 3-1 odds as wagering commences again today.

A total of 27 individual horses – and a 28th “all other 3YOs” option – are available to consider. The mix includes expected Kentucky Derby participants as well as Preakness potential newcomers to the Triple Crown series in Blazing Sevens (19-1 into Monday’s wagering), Chase the Chaos (72-1), First Mission (9-1, co-second individual favorite with Derby contender Angel of Empire), Instant Coffee (45-1) and Red Route One (24-1).

A couple of horses who could wind up on the Kentucky Derby also-eligible list when official entries are taken today, and included in the Preakness Future Wager, include Cyclone Mischief (56-1) and Mandarin Hero (19-1).
Value abounds on the tote as currently presented. The Preakness has had at least 2 horses go off at odds of 5-1 or less in every edition since 2015. The Kentucky Derby winner has been 3-1 or less in the Preakness every year since 50-1 Louisville upsetter Mine That Bird was sent away at 6-1 in Baltimore when second to Kentucky Oaks heroine and Preakness favorite Rachel Alexandra.

Handle on the Preakness Future Wager is trending very favorably with this year’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager win pools.

KDFW Pool 1 $90,007
KDFW Pool 2 $129,213
KDFW Pool 3 $244,699
KDFW Pool 4 $259,548
KDFW Pool 5 $250,906
KDFW Pool 6 $271,230

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:44 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#2 Eidikos	Solid lean here off a really nice North American debut last time out, and I like that she showed some positional pace that day, as there isn't a ton of speed signed on in this group. Would be no surprise from close range.
#6 Fuente Ovejuna	Her form really cam together over the winter in Florida, and these connections have been going really well in recent weeks. Think she's a threat late.
#7 Breaker of Chains	I expected something better from her last time around, but she might be worth another look after failing to close into a race won by the pacesetter. Worried about the race shape for her again, but I think she's capable of better at a decent price.
Race Summary	Eidikos should get a pretty dreamy run of things up close to the splits in a race without much serious speed signed on, and she might have some upside in this second start off the bench -- any step forward off that Keeneland try would probably do the job.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#12 Santos Dumont	He's back off the break here, but he fired fresh off the layoff each of the last two seasons, and his company lines are fairly imposing over the last couple years. He has never tried the turf, but he seems ready to go and offers some appeal at a decent price.
#3 Mister Mmmmm	He couldn't stay after tracking the pace early in Grade II company at Keeneland, but he was bet to 5/1 that day behind the Breeders' Cup winner and now gets some class relief. Obvious player with his A-game.
#9 Coppola	He wasn't badly beaten by a couple of these in that two-back run, and he exits a quick heat behind a guy with plenty of back class. Wouldn't be a surprise at a decent price.
Race Summary	Lots of ways to go in this one, but Santos Dumont looks interesting on paper ahead of this comeback run. I want to get a look at him on the track before this, but I think he might be ready enough for this to not just be a tuneup off the bench.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#5 Mount Craig	He has been pretty competitive with similar so far in his career, and he's capable of a better effort than he produced last time out. Think he has a claim on this one at a price that might end up just playable.
#9 Game Warden	He seems as good as any on paper in here, but I worry he's going to be overbet in here, and last time out would have been a fine time for him to flatter Kingsbarns. Blinks might get him over the top.
#4 Prove Worthy	He stepped forward nicely in that second career start at Tampa, and any additional move in the right direction would make him among the obvious players today. Could see it.
Race Summary	Mount Craig has some appeal off a relatively modest try by his standards, and he's right in the mix with this group if he's able to get back to his previous baseline effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:44 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #1

#10 FABULOUSLY ME (5-1)	Chased, then dueled with repeat stakes victor, ‘outward’ starts been costly.
#4 B H FREE DROP BILLY (4-1)	Dismissed at 3-1 odds or less in last five starts but didn’t win any.
#3 EXACTLY LIKE IVORY (6-1)	Avoided congested start, chased winner, earned good speed fig two back.
Race Summary	FABULOUSLY ME broke outward and recovered to get beat a length and a half-length in his first two starts this year, then he dueled inside of repeat winner Jess Zoomin Senator in a stakes race at Rillito Park last out. He draws a favorable post and can make good use of his speed if he can handle the extra 100 yards. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #2

#2 DOZO (5-2)	Head-and-head duels in last two starts, settled for second, enters new barn.
#3 APART OF MY CHARM (5-1)	Put away the fave after a half mile, romped in prior main-track sprint.
#5 JANERO ROSE (7-2)	Beat Dozo during 4-for-6 run in which she was claimed three times.
Race Summary	DOZO steps up off the claim but can win with a duplicate of her last two starts. She dueled to the sixteenth pole at this distance two back before trip-sitting favorite JANERO ROSE passed by, then she just missed after a long duel with the race winner at 6F last out as the odds-on choice. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#2 KIRA FEVER (9-2)	Proved talented and versatile in first two starts, should run well again.
#8 HIGH GUNNER (4-1)	Can stalk and pounce from the outside in repeat try, gets in light-weighted.
#6 ENSLEYS DREAM (3-1)	Earned minor awards from on and off the pace at this distance.
Race Summary	KIRA FEVER has done little wrong in two starts. She had to recover from a slow start in her debut, but sustained a rally and split rivals in the stretch to finish second. She dueled through solid fractions in her second start, shook clear in mid-stretch and held off the late-running favorite to win. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $8,400 • Post: 1:25P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FABULOUSLY ME: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. EXACTLY LIKE IVORY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BH FREE DROP BILLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PCR FLASHIN THE CASH: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). DUCHECK JQM: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distanc e/surface.
10	FABULOUSLY ME	5/1	9/2
3	EXACTLY LIKE IVORY	6/1	6/1
4	BH FREE DROP BILLY	4/1	8/1
6	PCR FLASHIN THE CASH	8/1	10/1
7	DUCHECK JQM	3/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DADDYS VELVET CARTEL	1	20/1	Average	59	58	5.8	0.0	0.0
2	BULLY GIRL	2	5/1	Average/Trouble-prone	71	58	4.1	0.0	0.0
3	EXACTLY LIKE IVORY	3	6/1	Average	77	70	4.4	0.0	0.0
4	BH FREE DROP BILLY	4	4/1	Average	71	66	3.7	0.0	0.0
5	BLAME IT ON MEXICO V	5	10/1	Average	60	59	4.6	0.0	0.0
6	PCR FLASHIN THE CASH	6	8/1	Average	71	69	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	DUCHECK JQM	7	3/1	Slow	71	63	6.8	0.0	0.0
8	CARTERS BAYOU ROSE	8	12/1	Average	69	67	5.7	0.0	0.0
9	JESSES EMPIRE	9	15/1	Average	60	57	5.3	0.0	0.0
10	FABULOUSLY ME	10	5/1	Average	84	72	4.3	0.0	0.0
11	ONE MYSTERY LOVER V	11	6/1	Average	68	67	4.8	0.0	0.0
12	PRINCE SHASTA	12	8/1	Average	65	59	3.9	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger LakesPURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 8	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $11,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 4:38P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. E Z TOLL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * E Z TOLL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BAD CONNECTION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
7	E Z TOLL	5/2	2/1
6	BAD CONNECTION	7/2	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BAD CONNECTION	6	7/2	Front-runner	0	0	78.8	35.1	28.1
9	JUANDERFUL JUANITA	9	6/1	Front-runner	45	46	43.7	30.8	18.8
7	E Z TOLL	7	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	71	64	79.6	46.8	41.8
3	SLY SLOANE	3	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	69.2	37.0	27.5
2	SUBTLE GIANT	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	39	47.0	42.0	32.0
4	REAL GOOD VYBZ	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	57	43.2	40.8	38.3
1	FLORALOATS	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	41	40.8	34.1	24.1
5	FRANKIE C	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	45	21	38.4	23.8	12.8
8	T'S DOUBLE TROUBLE	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.1	17.3	4.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14400 Class Rating: 69

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 GOSPEL CARLOTTA 7/2
# 4 EXCETERA 7/5
# 3 DIXIELAND CANDY 4/1

GOSPEL CARLOTTA looks to be a quite good contender. Williams has this mare racing well and is a decent pick based on the respectable Equibase speed figs earned in sprint races recently. Wethey has a win percentage of 27 over the last 30 days. Has formidable Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this contest. EXCETERA - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this event. Will almost certainly go to the front end and might never look back. DIXIELAND CANDY - Earning some good dough in dirt sprint contests. Has run soundly when racing a dirt sprint race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:46 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:50pm - Allowance - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,800 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#6 MACHEN MAYHEM (ML=6/1)

MACHEN MAYHEM - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Baird.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 S S CITY SCOUT (ML=2/1), #5 AWESOME MOON (ML=5/2), #1 MAGNIFICENT MADDY (ML=4/1),

S S CITY SCOUT - In any event of 4 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests lately. This chalk horse probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Skip her today. AWESOME MOON - The finish of fifth in the last affair shows me that this equine may be tailing off. MAGNIFICENT MADDY - Can't play this runner in today's sprint of 4 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair recently. Not probable that the speed fig she recorded on October 26th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 MACHEN MAYHEM on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $134000 Class Rating: 103

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $26,400 TWICE ON THE TURF SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $23,400 ON THE TURF SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $62,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 16 MAMBA ON THREE 5/1
# 1 AGENT PETER GRAVES 3/1
# 3 MISTER MMMMM 4/1

MAMBA ON THREE is my choice. Looks quite good to be on the front end at the first call. Going in a turf sprint race gives this gelding a very good shot. AGENT PETER GRAVES - Ortiz has a win percent of 21 over the last 30 days. MISTER MMMMM - Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying strong figures recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 101 under similar conditions. This gelding has a very good win percent in turf sprint races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2023, 06:46 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:47pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#7 JUST NOD AND SMILE (ML=10/1)
#4 SOMEBODY (ML=9/5)
#1 ILLUSTRIOUS (ML=5/2)

JUST NOD AND SMILE - Wolfsont and Bedard perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +220 ROI for a rider and trainer. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. SOMEBODY - Gelding was beaten as the public choice in a $5,000 Claiming race last time out. Was a good effort even though he finished second. Aboard this horse on Apr 12th and Rivera is right back in the irons this race. I like to play this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid outing within the last month or so. ILLUSTRIOUS - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier group than last race out at Parx Racing. This jockey and handler have a beneficial ROI when they work together. Diaz gets a break on this horse carrying 7 lbs less than last out. This should help in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SCOTTY (ML=9/2), #6 SEAT OF HONOR (ML=6/1),

SCOTTY - This vulnerable equine hasn't been near the victor at the wire lately. SEAT OF HONOR - 6/1 is too short of a price to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back efforts. This mount ran a disappointing speed fig last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's event running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SOMEBODY - This fine animal is meeting a much easier field than in the last event on Apr 12th. Worth a prime investment today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 JUST NOD AND SMILE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7] Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass