Friday 5/5/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:01 PM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - May 5

May. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $32,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 VIOLET STORM

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Violet Storm	A Fresu
PLACE	2-1	2	Slam Diego	H I Berrios
SHOW	6-1	1	Peppermint Flirt	K Frey
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Sweet Heidelberg	D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Busker Allie	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Movinglikeawinner	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Hillstone Martini	A Aguilar
PLACE	5-1	6	Tiz a Master	C Figueroa
SHOW	5-2	7	Rain Diva	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Drizella	A Castellanos

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Righteously	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Crown Kitten	E Payeras

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

RACE #3 $28,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MISS FIA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	4	Miss Fia	A Alsagoor
PLACE	3-1	3	Youteyourhonor	K J Desormeaux
SHOW	5-2	7	Too Much Heaven	G Franco
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Rock the Bourbon	A Castellanos

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Flat Out Joy	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Splicer	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #4 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 BIG HAT WILLIE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Big Hat Willie	G Franco
PLACE	2-1	3	Deservedly	K J Desormeaux
SHOW	5-2	2	Indulge	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Quick Buck	A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Spiritist	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Trusty Rusty	A Fresu

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #5 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Oubabe	J Bravo
PLACE	3-1	4	Worse Read Sanchez	M Gutierrez
SHOW	2-1	6	Talklessworkmore	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Clouseau	G Franco

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	J Ts Watch	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Shortman	H I Berrios

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:49 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	5	Stavros	A Cedillo
PLACE	6-1	2	Midnight Fury	E A Maldonado
SHOW	6-1	4	Sir Atticus	M E Smith
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Truehood	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Mohawk Sun	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Del Mar Jerry	K J Desormeaux

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #7 $38,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:21 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	3	Wyfire	A Aguilar
PLACE	9-5	2	Doncic	K J Desormeaux
SHOW	6-1	4	Law Abiding	M Gutierrez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Thunderheart	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Inch	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Marks Hip	E A Maldonado

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #8 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:52 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	Starship Defiant	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	5-2	4	Rose Harbor	M E Smith
SHOW	3-1	7	Race Judicata	J Pyfer
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Tizzy Twister	A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Sensible Move	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Act of Serendipity	H I Berrios

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #9 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:23 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	4	Golden Microphone	K Frey
PLACE	4-1	3	Smoove as Silk	M Gutierrez
SHOW	5-2	9	Magic Game	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Warrior Lady	A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Sit Look and Hope	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Organic	J Bravo

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:02 PM

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - May 5

May. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Hightail Cowboy	R Zimmerman
PLACE	10-1	4	Ojitos	I Castillo
SHOW	9-2	7	The Heat Is On	L S Quinonez
WILD CARD	8-5	8	Heritage Park	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	J. E.s Handmedown	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Stomping Hotrod	K R Jordan

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX

RACE #2 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:52 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	7	Dare Me	K J Asmussen
PLACE	5-1	9	Kitiara	T Wales
SHOW	8-1	3	Abby the Bull Dawg	W De La Cruz
WILD CARD	12-1	2	Funtimegirl	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Courageous Cappen	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Smartys Angel	K Harr

* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/9 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:24 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 VEGAS BLUE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	8	Vegas Blue	C A Torres
PLACE	4-1	6	Bidofhoney	I Castillo
SHOW	5-2	1	Sammies Samurai	R Zimmerman
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Molise	W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Tribal Spirit	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Star Pose	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #4 $40,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:57 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	4	Carnivore	C A Torres
PLACE	10-1	3	Schmooze	E Medellin
SHOW	4-1	6	Get Through	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Accidental Hero	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Bread Winner	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	10	Uncle Berley	K J Asmussen

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #5 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 SINGING GROOM

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Singing Groom	W De La Cruz
PLACE	5-1	7	Ike Wazowski	K R Jordan
SHOW	5-2	9	Aux Arcs	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Falconite	C Bailey

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Loud Boy	A Pusac
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Traffic Boss	E Medellin

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

RACE #6 $106,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 CAIRAMA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Cairama	I Castillo
PLACE	7-2	8	Fore Left	R Zimmerman
SHOW	2-1	2	Albizu	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Major General	M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	9	W W Scouts Honor	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Whelen Springs	G Saez

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

RACE #7 $8,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	2	Make Noise	K Harr
PLACE	6-1	3	Atta Party	G Saez
SHOW	5-2	1A	Jolly Tommy	C A Torres
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Higher Authority	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	10	Zoffa	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	1	Liars Club	C A Torres

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX

RACE #8 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Komorebino Omoide	C A Torres
PLACE	6-1	10	April Fools Andy	F Arrieta
SHOW	9-5	11	Zambezi	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	20-1	4	Cravensworth	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Debater	J K Court
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Tulsan	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/10/11 BOX, 4/10/11 BOX

RACE #9 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	8	Blame Day	F Arrieta
PLACE	2-1	5	Unifying	C A Torres
SHOW	10-1	1	Thunders Rocknroll	E Gallardo
WILD CARD	15-1	13	Ribbonsinherhair	E Gallardo

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Always Angels	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	10	Lady Dreamer	J K Court

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/5/13 BOX

RACE #10 $150,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:46 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $150,000 LAKE OUACHITA STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	8	Frosted Grace	C A Torres
PLACE	2-1	7	Mr. Wireless	D L Parker
SHOW	8-1	6	Great Escape	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Mailman Money	G Saez

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Aint Life Grand	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1	Forza Di Oro	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
COMMENTS: FROSTED GRACE has speed and loves the track and distance. MR. WIRELESS will get pace to run at and loves the track. GREAT ESCAPE could add value to your exotics. MAILMAN MONEY needs to step up but has value.

RACE #11 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Storm Strategy	K J Asmussen
PLACE	2-1	8	Itwasthisbig	I Castillo
SHOW	9-2	10	Boliver	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	12-1	11	Royal Air Force	K Harr

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	13	Shady Star	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Offshore Tithe	C A Torres

* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/10 BOX, 8/10/11 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:02 PM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 5

May. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	4	Cumberland	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	2	Son of a Birch	E Cancel
SHOW	3-1	1	Fast Boat to Skye	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Paxsational	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Flat Top Box	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Little Skippy	D Davis

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #2 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	4	Safalows Mission	D Davis
PLACE	6-5	1	Mason Mania	E Cancel
SHOW	8-1	6	Jumpster	R R Maragh
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Union Fleet	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Mighty Atlas	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Datesfreedom	G Huayas

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #3 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 HOOEY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Hooey	D Davis
PLACE	5-2	6	Predicted	P Lopez
SHOW	2-1	4	Crack the Code	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Good Rapport	R Silvera

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	West Star	H K Harkie
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Pine Alley	M J Sanchez

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #4 $200,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $200,000 SHEEPSHEAD STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Higher Truth	M Franco
PLACE	8-5	5	Amazing Grace	K Carmouche
SHOW	7-2	3	Virginia Joy	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Mylady	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Atomic Blonde	E Cancel

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
COMMENTS: HIGHER TRUTH has some speed while the rest of the field does not. AMAZING GRACE won her debut in the states and looks tough here. VIRGINIA JOY has won three of four at this distance. MYLADY beat our top pick last time out.

RACE #5 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	6	Launch Control	D Davis
PLACE	10-1	4	Disarmed	N Juarez
SHOW	7-2	7	Electric Stuff	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Factually Correct	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Z Dancer	J A Davis
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1A	Kid Kreesa	J A Davis

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #6 $40,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 WARMAN ROAD

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Warman Road	K Carmouche
PLACE	2-1	6	Improper	M Franco
SHOW	9-2	8	Jesters Song	K Davis
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Johns Protege	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Hatch	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Juggler	J A Davis

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

RACE #7 $35,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:29 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	4	Town of Gold	D Davis
PLACE	5-1	2	Eddie the Great	M Franco
SHOW	3-1	7	Deep Cover	E Cancel
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Daufuskie Island	R Silvera

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Dr. Duke	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	11	Heymackitsjack	R R Maragh

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

RACE #8 $175,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY WESTCHESTER STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	8	Repo Rocks	R Silvera
PLACE	3-1	4	White Abarrio	P Lopez
SHOW	6-1	3	Dr Ardito	M Franco
WILD CARD	2-1	7	Zandon	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Weyburn	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Unbridled Bomber	M J Sanchez

* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
COMMENTS: REPO ROCKS is in top form right now. WHITE ABARRIO will be tough if he stays entered. DR ARDITO has won six races in a row. ZANDON is to short of a price but will have pace to chase.

RACE #9 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 SUCCULENT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	11	Succulent	T McCarthy
PLACE	10-1	9	My Angel	J A Gomez
SHOW	3-1	7	Robyn and Eli	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Be Best	W A Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Silent Melody	N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Big Hazel	D Davis

* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/11 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:03 PM

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - May 5

May. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $28,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	1	Katies a Lady	A Santos
PLACE	3-1	3	Anador	S Camacho
SHOW	5-1	5	Latin Nikkita	J C Ferrer
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Fall Moon	A Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Irazu	M Meneses
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Laloba Feroz	M Jimenez

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #2 $8,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 RIPLEY EFFECT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Ripley Effect	J C Ferrer
PLACE	8-5	2	Hollywood Honey	S Camacho
SHOW	3-1	4	Provocativa	J A Batista
WILD CARD	8-1	5	C Cs Freedom	J E Lopez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Tipharah	L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	3	Dura the Explorer	A Santos

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #3 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:41 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 ATHENAS WISDOM

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Athenas Wisdom	H Villa-Gomez
PLACE	8-5	3	Ritabook	R E Mena
SHOW	8-1	6	My Baton Rouge	R A Bracho
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Newyearspresent	J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Humor Sense	J A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Noble Attitude	R Mitchell

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #4 $28,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 HARPOON HARRY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Harpoon Harry	J C Ferrer
PLACE	2-1	4	Initforthelove	S Camacho
SHOW	7-2	3	Almanzo	M Meneses
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Venezuelan Triumph	J A Batista

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Great Britain	A Santos
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Barnegat Light	L Sosa

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #5 $8,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:41 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Jackson Strong	J C Ferrer
PLACE	5-2	5	Poseidons Son	R A Bracho
SHOW	4-1	2	Awkward Pause	M Meneses
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Excellent Mark	S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Agent Cooper	L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Midnight Tequila	K Mendez

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #6 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Boardwalk Fries	A Santos
PLACE	5-2	6	Zippy Zinny	S Camacho
SHOW	2-1	11	Amor Salvaje	M Meneses
WILD CARD	6-1	12	Doro Baby	M Jimenez

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Royale Flare	M Meneses
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Miss Neo	R E Mena

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/11 BOX, 6/11/12 BOX

RACE #7 $19,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:42 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Winters Ghost	R E Mena
PLACE	6-1	7	Golden Tone	J A Batista
SHOW	5-1	10	Lord Berrier	A A Marin
WILD CARD	9-2	4	War Cross	J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Exacting	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Cuz	S Camacho

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX

RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:23 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	6	E Ms Treasuregirl	H Villa-Gomez
PLACE	4-1	4	Shes So Bearrish	S Camacho
SHOW	10-1	3	Verifiable	L Sosa
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Frosty Secret	R A Bracho

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Exaggerated Humor	J E Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	No More Fire	M Fuentes

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:04 PM

Churchill Downs Oaks Day Tip Sheet - May 5

May. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET
BEST BET: #12 FOREVER AFTER ALL

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	12	Forever After All	C J Lanerie
PLACE	4-1	6	Destine to Race	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	8	Back to Gridlock	F Prat
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Beach Walkn	L Machado

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Kantheia	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Lady Emily Kathryn	J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 12-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/12 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX

RACE #2 $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:00 AM ET
BEST BET: #11 VAHVA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	11	Vahva	L Saez
PLACE	6-1	6	Grove	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	15-1	5	Peacock Lass	F Prat
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Undervalued Asset	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	1	Be Here Now	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Fogo Island	G Corrales

* EXACTA: 11-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/11 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX

RACE #3 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 11:30 AM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Point Me By	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	20-1	8	Sky and Sand	J L Ortiz
SHOW	3-1	13	Price Talk	F Geroux
WILD CARD	4-1	12	Siege of Boston	J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Smokin T	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	16	Richiesgotgame	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-13 BOX, 13-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/13 BOX, 8/12/13 BOX

RACE #4 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	9	Jump Into the Fire	Y Navas
PLACE	7-2	4	Not So Close	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	8-1	8	Music Street	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	4-1	16	Mouffy	L Saez

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Heartyconstitution	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Jag Warrior	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-16 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/8/16 BOX

RACE #5 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:43 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $600,000 ALYSHEBA STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	West Will Power	F Prat
PLACE	5-2	1	Art Collector	J Alvarado
SHOW	4-1	2	Last Samurai	L Saez
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Rich Strike	S Leon

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Smile Happy	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	7	Giant Game	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 1,2,4/1,2,3,4,5
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,4/1,2,4/1,2,3,4,5,7
COMMENTS: WEST WILL POWER hit the board in two of two at Churchill and four of four at the Distance. LAST SAMURAI appears to be in top form and could benefit from a small cut in distance. ART COLLECTOR does his best when he is on or just off the lead at the start. That is where he should be with this group. RICH STRIKE does his best work at Churchill Downs and will be coming late

RACE #6 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:26 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $300,000 MODESTY STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	2	Didia	V Cheminaud
PLACE	2-1	7	Shantisara	F Prat
SHOW	5-2	6	McKulick	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	8	New Years Eve	L Saez

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Sparkle Blue	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Lady Rockstar	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 2,6,7,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,6,7,8/2,7/2,4,5,6,7,8
COMMENTS: DIDIA came in from Argentina and won three in a row in the States. She keeps getting better and better. SHANTISARA finished first or second in seven of her last eight races. MCKULICKs jockey and trainer combo of Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown have won at 44 percent together. NEW YEARS EVE just ran her career best race and her workouts since hint at another big performance today.

RACE #7 $500,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:09 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 EIGHT BELLES STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	9	Munnys Gold	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	3-1	6	Red Carpet Ready	L Saez
SHOW	10-1	1	Condensation	L Machado
WILD CARD	5-1	8	Accede	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Grand Love	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Positano Sunset	J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 1,6,8,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,8,8/9,6/1,5,6,8,9
COMMENTS: MUNNYS GOLD smoked the competition by at least six and quarter lengths in her three starts. RED CARPET READY got beat as the betting favorite in her last race, Trainer George Arnold II rebounds at a nice 31 percent the next time out. CONDENSATION gains confidence when she is one the lead from the start. She usually breaks clean and should be close to the front today. ACCEDE is stepping straight out of her maiden win into stakes company which is no easy task. She made her debut look easy and might be up for the job today.

RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $300,000 UNBRIDLED SIDNEY STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	11	Caravel	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	1	Bay Storm	J R Velazquez
SHOW	8-1	9	Little Jewel	J Castellano
WILD CARD	5-1	8	Oeuvre	J Loveberry

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Miners Queen	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Sarah Harper	J Rosario

* EXACTA: 1,11/1,4,5,8,9,11
* TRIFECTA: 1,11/1,8,9,11/1,4,5,8,9,11
COMMENTS: CARAVEL won a Grade II at Keeneland in her last and drops in class here. BAY STORM has plenty of early juice and should be involved from start to finish. LITTLE JEWELs trainer Carlo Vaccareza does not enter many at this level but wins at 31 percent when he does. OEUVRE is a consistent performer that tends to make a strong mid move which is important in sprints.

RACE #9 $750,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:04 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $750,000 LA TROIENNE STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Society	J L Ortiz
PLACE	3-1	4	Secret Oath	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	2	Search Results	F Prat
WILD CARD	20-1	8	Desert Dawn	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Played Hard	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Classy Edition	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 4,7/1,2,4,6,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,7/2,4,7/1,2,4,6,7,8
COMMENTS: SOCIETY popped the best number at the distance with a hand ride. SECRET OATH has four wins with a second and third in seven at the distance and just a pair of wins in eight at any other length. SEARCH RESULTS has some strong workouts getting ready for today but usually needs a race or two to find her form after a layoff like today. DESERT DAWN typically runs a high quality race close to the pace and tries to go by late.

RACE #10 $500,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:51 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 EDGEWOOD STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	9	Papilio	J Castellano
PLACE	5-1	11	Revalita	J L Ortiz
SHOW	3-1	3	Cairo Consort	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	10-1	10	Flashy Gem	L Saez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Preliminary	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Liguria	F Prat

* EXACTA: 3,9,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,9,11/3,9,11/2,3,5,9,10,11
COMMENTS: PAPILIO should be in peak form making her third start after a layoff. REVALITA is a candidate for major improvement in her second US start and second after a layoff. CAIRO CONSORT finished in the money nine of 10 races and was fourth in the other. FLASHY GEM will likely try to be on or near the lead all the way around the track.

RACE #11 $1,250,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $1.25 M KENTUCKY OAKS GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	12-1	5	Wonder Wheel	J Rosario
PLACE	5-2	7	Wet Paint	F Prat
SHOW	12-1	11	Defining Purpose	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Southlawn	R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	14	Pretty Mischievous	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Botanical	C Landeros

* EXACTA: 4,5,7,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 4,5,7,11 Box
COMMENTS: WONDER WHEEL is making her second start off the bench and she improved in both of her previous second up outings. WET PAINT usually wins from way off the pace but she might be a little closer to the front versus this bunch. DEFINING PURPOSE is an all or nothing horse on a fast track with three wins in five attempts. SOUTHLAWN ran much faster times in her last and could build on that success in the third start after a layoff.

RACE #12 $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	2	Tough Legacy	L Saez
PLACE	7-2	1	Curl Girl	F Prat
SHOW	3-1	6	Guns n Graces	J Rosario
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Forever Dixie	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Charlies Wish	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Boss Lady Bailey	R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX

RACE #13 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #14 AMERICAN RETRO

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	14	American Retro	L Saez
PLACE	8-1	1	Kids Last Laugh	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	6-1	12	Pitch Clock	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-1	11	Twin Mischief	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	No Guilt	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Coppa Girl	F Geroux

* EXACTA: 14-1 BOX, 1-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/12/14 BOX, 1/11/12 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:04 PM

Churchill Downs Oaks Day FULLCARD Hotlist - May 5

May. 04, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race – (6) Destine to Race showed nice speed when stretched out and can post a maiden win here. (5) Beach Walkn should relish the added distance. (8) Back to Gridlock should be well-suited by the conditions. (1) Lady Emily Kathryn will benefit from a rail trip.
2^nd race – (9) Undervalued Asset disappointed in the Davona Dale Stakes but can bonce back here. (11) Vahva was a game second the last time and looks like the main foe. (2) Padma will welcome a return to dirt. (6) Grove looked good in a victorious debut.
3^rd race - (10) Whisper Not had a troubled trip last time and can bounce back with a winning effort here. (6) Point Me By was second in his last two starts and can complete the exacta again. (1) Smokin’ T fits in nicely here. (12) Siege of Boston has sharp early speed but breaks from a rough post.
4^th race – (4) Not So Close has enough speed to lead throughout. (7) Heartyconstitution was second in her last two starts at this distance. (3) Lisette may contend with the addition of Johnny V. (8) Music Street should be a contender in her 2023 debut.
5^th race – Alysheba Stakes (G2) - (4) West Will Power can control the pace and the race in this field. (2) Last Samurai is in career-best form and is the one to fear. (1) Art Collector will be a factor on his best try. (3) Rich Strike is best known for running at Churchill Downs on Derby Weekend.
6th race – Modesty Stakes (G3) (7) Shantisara returned to her winning ways last time and can continue on a winning roll. (6) McKulick seems poised for a big 4-year-old campaign. (2) Didia is unbeaten in the U.S. and cannot be ignored. (5) Lady Rockstar should be a threat in the final furlong.
7th race – Eight Belles Stakes (G2) - (9) Munnys Gold won powerfully last time and will be extremely formidable in this field. (8) Accede will be tested for class after a maiden win. (3) Olivia Twist will appreciate the cutback in distance. (6) Red Carpet Ready faltered last time but fits better at this distance.
8^th race – (11) Caravel is a Breeders’ Cup winner on a three-race win streak and should make it four here. (1) Bay Storm should work out a good trip from the rail. (8) Oeuvre can rebound after a poor try last time. (9) Little Jewel can bounce back after a tough trip last time.
9^th race – La Troienne Stakes (G1) - (4) Secret Oath is back in top form and was good enough to win the Kentucky Oaks last year. (2) Search Results seems primed for a big 2023 campaign. (9) Pauline’s Pearl will be a factor on her best try. (7) Society had a useful comeback race and should be fit for this try.
10^th race – Edgewood Stakes (G2) - (3) Cairo Consort has a late kick that will be boosted by some added distance here. (5) Preliminary was a sharp debut winner and cannot be discounted. (6) Mission of Joy seeks a fourth straight win and merits consideration. (8) Heavenly Sunday keeps getting better.
11^th race – Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) - (7) Wet Paint has a strong stretch kick and a three-race winning streak. Looks best in a tough field. (3) Gambling Girl will also make her presence felt in the final furlong. (4) Southlawn has gotten good at the right time. (14) Pretty Mischievous has plenty of talent but drew a bad post.
12^th race – (1) Curl Girl has strong early speed and will be aided by a rail trip. (2) Tough Legacy was a rallying second and will be a top contender. (6) Guns n’ Graces will appreciate the class relief after running a Grade 1 stakes. (3) Boss Lady Bailey was third last time and should not be overlooked.
13^th race – (2) Coppa Girl looks like a talented first-time starter from Cox. (11) Twin Mischief missed by a neck and will helped by more distance here. (12) Pitch Clock may strike in this field. (14) American Retro was a strong second in her debut but faces a wide trip from the outside post.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:05 PM

Belmont Park Hotlist - May 5

May. 04, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (2) Son of a Birch (B) was last seen running at Saratoga when he was very eager and difficult to handle while making two turf starts. He returns now as a gelding with Lasix for the first time. (4) Cumberland has two starts at Gulfstream Park this year and last time stretched out to a turf mile, set the pace, and finished second by a nose. Blinkers go on to help with the stretch run. (1) Fast Boat to Skye made his turf debut in his fifth start and was on the lead going a mile to finish fifth. Excellent turf trainer David Donk now cuts him back to sprinting. (6) Flat Top Box will make the first start of his career for Jorge Abreu who does well with turf firsters.
5^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (7) Electric Stuff (C) set the pace and finished second by a neck in his first start on the grass after getting bet down from 6-1 to 3-1. (6) Launch Control (C) also moved to the turf for the first time, set the pace, and ran second in what was the second division of a split race that Electric Stuff ran in. He was bet to be the even money favorite. (1) Kreesa is a home-bred that had a pair of turf starts last year for Donk and makes his 2023 debut with blinkers on and Lasix for the first time. (9) Scherzando had trouble leaving the gate in his second start of the year for Dee Tee Stables of radio personality Steve Byk.
6^th race [Clm 40000 N2L, 6F] – (7) Warman Road (B) was an impressive winner in his first start of the year to break his maiden. He came back in a very strong allowance field to face winners for the first time but was badly bothered by heavy kickback and did very little running. (1) Our Son Jake came back from a layoff to get the lead going a mile for a $25,000 tag and ran second. He will cut back to a sprint. (8) Jester’s Song was sent off at 4-1 in his 2023 debut and finished fourth. (6) Improper won a $40,000 maiden claimer by 10 lengths in his first start of the year.
9^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 mi TURF] – (2) Big Hazel (B) finished second in his debut behind a 1-5 favorite for Todd Pletcher and was well ahead of the rest of the field. He will move from dirt to turf for Donk. (9) My Angel made three winter starts on the dirt but seems to be turf meant with War Dancer as his sire for Mike Maker. (8) Be Best debuted on a sloppy sealed track at 5-2 and broke slowly. (7) Robyn and Eli got the winter off after six starts and three second-place finishes for Chad Brown.
Best bets: Electric Stuff (5^th); Warman Road (6^th). Best value: Son of a Birch (1^st); Big Hazel (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(2)	Son of a Birch	B on 7/30	1	He returns from a Saratoga layoff when he was very eager early.
(6)	Launch Control	C on 4/7	5	He was second in his turf debut last month.
(7)	Electric Stuff	C on 4/7	5	Set the pace and finished second in his first grass start.
(7)	Warman Road	B on 4/15	6	Climbed from kickback and was awkward up on heels.
(2)	Big Hazel	A on 2/11	9	Finished second behind a 1-5 debut winner, well ahead of the rest.
(14)	Shoppingatbloomies	B on 4/14	9	Second on Also Eligible list.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:08 PM

Jeff Nahill’s Kentucky Oaks handicap (stakes races for Friday, May 5 ay Churchill Downs)

FIFTH RACE (Alysheba): 4-2-1-5
SIXTH RACE (Modesty): 7-6-8-2-4
SEVENTH RACE (Eight Belles): 6-8-9-1-2
EIGHTH RACE (Unbridled Sydney): 3-8-11-1-9
NINTH RACE (La Troiene): 7-9-2-10-6
10TH RACE (Edgewood): 2-11-5-3-7
11TH RACE (Kentucky Oaks): 1. And Tell Me Nolies (15-1), 2. Wet Paint (5-2), 3. Defining Purposes (12-1), 4. Southlawn (8-1). LONG SHOT: Pretty Mischievous (10-1).
There is no doubt WET PAINT is the one to beat. She was impressive at Oaklawn Park and should relish the long stretch at Churchill Downs with jockey Flavien Prat. However, AND TELL ME NOLIES has lost two straight to the best 3-year-old filly in America in Bob Baffert’s Farza, who is banned from this race. This is third off the layoff for the Peter Miller-trained filly. Looks like a wide open race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-04-2023, 10:08 PM

Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Unbridled Bomber in career form for Westchester

Posted on May 4, 2023 by David Aragona
Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:05 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs
There’s little doubt that Zandon (#7) is the horse to beat in this Westchester as he returns from the layoff to launch his 4-year-old campaign. Yet there are some questions he has to answer. Chad Brown had intended to run him in a softer optional claiming race last week, and he was forced to target this spot instead after the track came up sloppy.
Brown has a reputation for doing well off layoffs, but he is just 5 for 25 (20%, $0.74 ROI) with horses off 120 to 240 day layoffs in dirt stakes over the past 5 years, in a sample primarily composed of short prices. There’s little doubt that this colt was one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, but he disappointed slightly towards the end of the year. This one mile distance is supposed to be right up his alley, but he did disappoint going this far as the favorite in the Cigar Mile.
Chad Brown’s other entrant Dr Ardito (#3) could take money based on his string of recent victories, but I think he would have to improve to beat the toughest field that he’s ever faced.
Repo Rocks (#8) would be a strong contender if he could get back to the form we saw out of him this winter. However, he’s regressed slightly twice in a row since that breakout performance in the Toboggan two back. I’m skeptical that he can turn things back around.
Weyburn (#6) appears to be back in top form after struggling in the second half of 2022. He ran well twice down at Gulfstream since being reunited with original trainer Jimmy Jerkens. I think some others in here have a higher ceiling, but he does figure to be a decent price.
My top pick is Unbridled Bomber (#5). There was always the frame of a top horse here, but it took him a long time to put all the pieces together. He showed promise as a 2-year-old, but then seemed to lack focus during the early part of that 3-year-old season. Things finally started to click into place last fall, and now he’s won 3 of his last 4 starts. The most recent stakes attempt in the Queens County went awry, but he reportedly wasn’t himself that day and subsequently got some time off. He looked better than ever off the layoff last time, showing improved tactical speed before sailing clear late. His 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance stacks up favorably against the favorite. The fact that he’s wheeling back in just 3 weeks would appear to suggest that he’s done well since then.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2023, 05:34 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/5/23

May 5, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Slam Diego
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: This race, like all grass events on today’s program, has been transferred to the main track. Slam Diego returns to the claiming ranks while dropping below her $40,000 claim level and appears properly spotted in this restricted (nw-2) one mile affair for fillies and mares. She may be most effective as the controlling speed and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics similar to the trip that produced her bottom-rung maiden claiming win last summer at Del Mar. She should have no trouble with the surface switch, so we’ll make her a no value, short-priced rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Rain Diva
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: In a bottom-rung $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that offers little to embrace, Rain Diva lands the cozy outside draw and should have every chance to deliver a winning effort. She’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and projects to be on the lead or at worst in a comfortable stalking position. She’s reunited with “win rider” Edwin Maldonado in her first outing following a brief freshening since mid-March and shows a couple of recent solid drills that should have her on edge. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, she may be worth a small play at or near that price.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Too Much Heaven; 3-Youteyourhonor
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a $32,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that originally was carded for turf but now will be contested over the main track. Too Much Heaven moves up a notch after a clever score over the local lawn that produced a career top speed figure. She was able to control that race gate-to-wire and based on the projected pace flow of this event the daughter of Twirling Candy could easily enjoy a similar front-running trip. She has won on dirt in the past so let’s hope she will be able to duplicate her last race on this track. Youteyourhonor turns back from a mile after narrowly missing in a tougher starter allowance affair in mid-March. She’s effective at any distance or surface and does her best work when settling in the second flight and kicking home from the quarter pole to the wire.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Deservedly; 2-Indulge
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: Deservedly is improving with each start, and after breaking his maiden for $50,000 last time out the son of Nyquist is protected in starter’s allowance company in a sign of confidence. His winning speed figure makes him highly competitive right back despite the class hike and four easy breezes since he last raced in mid-March indicates he’s ready for another forward move. Indulge failed to make an impression when tried over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields last time out but a repeat of his strong third place effort two races back over the local dirt track would make him a serious contender. The son of Kantharos has the proper style for this seven furlong distance and we’re expecting the Richard Mandella-trained gelding to be heard from late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Deservedly.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Talklessworkmore; 1-Oubabe
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This race has been transferred to the main track. Talklessworkmore should be able to clear the field from his outside post position (six of six) in this first level allowance mile affair and if he can without much pressure the son of Summer Front could get brave and keep on going. The five-year-old gelding is fast enough on speed figures to win at this level and makes what some would consider to be a favorable trainer change from Shelby Ruis to Antonio Garcia. The switch in surface for him is no problem. Oubabe also should be included on your ticket. In the frame in 10 of 12 career starts and effective on any surface, the John Sadler-trained colt figures to inherit an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip and have dead aim and every chance when the pressure is turned on. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Talklessworkmore on top.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Truehood
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Truehood has trained like a serious prospect for Bob Baffert, and if he makes no mistakes from his rail draw the highly regarded son of Nyquist should be quite capable of winning at first asking. Last summer at Del Mar he outworked stable mate (and Grade-1 winner) Cave Rock but had to be stopped on before making a start, and while his recent tab contains no flashy workout times he has done everything asked while looking fit and ready. A $700,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, he offers a solid gamble at anywhere near his morning line of 5/2.

*

RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Doncic; 1-Thunderheart
Backups/savers: 3-Wyfire

Forecast:The three main players in this starter allowance sprint that now will be contested on dirt are drawn inside and we’re expecting the winner to be included in this group. Doncic earned a career top speed figure when narrowly missing by a neck under these conditions in late March and returns today with an extra furlong to work with while switching to the stable’s “go-to” rider Kent Desormeaux. The son of Cairo Prince can handle dirt, and after finishing second in three of his last four starts he seems overdue to break through with a victory. Thunderheart returns off short rest from a restricted $32,000 grass sprint two weeks ago, and like our top pick earned a career best speed figure in doing so. The five year old gelding has good early speed and likely will be asked to show it from the rail. Wyfire is slower on numbers than the first two listed above but he broke his maiden on dirt at Del Mar in August of 2020 and has been racing on grass ever since. Perhaps the return to the main track will do him some good, and he’ll be running on late, and it will be surprising if he doesn’t at least hit the board.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Starship Defiant; 4-Rose Harbor
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: We’ll double the eighth race, an allowance optional claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. Starship Defiant has won four races from 21 career starts, with all four victories accomplished over the Santa Anita dirt strip. In the frame in three of her last four starts, the daughter of Empire Way is overdue for a win at this level and should be on or near the lead throughout. Depending upon how much pressure Race Judicata (the other speed) applies during the early stages of the race may determine whether she can control proceedings gate to wire. Rose Harbor likes to settle early and produce a late run, and if the early fractions are faster than par she’ll have every chance to wear down the leaders in the final stages. Her speed figures are gradually rising, and as a lightly raced mare (just seven starts) she probably has further room for improvement.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Golden Microphone; 8-Sit Look and Hope
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: The finale is an extended sprint for maiden fillies and mares that originally was slated for turf but instead will be contested on the main track. The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s default to a pair of first time starters with reasonable credentials. Golden Microphone vans down from Golden Gate Fields where she has been preparing for her debut and it is reasonable to assume that her connections have been impressed enough with her morning drills to try her on the big circuit. The Jonathan Wong-trained daughter of Stanford shows several drills that appear strong based on raw final times, so at 3-1 on the morning line she deserves the edge in a race begging to be won by a fresh face. Sit Look and Hope is another newcomer that appears intriguing. The daughter of Lookin At Lucky has been gearing up for her debut at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller while recently working five furlongs from the gate in 1:00.3hg, a bullet for that distance on April 19. She certainly should be a live item against this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2023, 05:34 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

May 5, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands begins the weekend with a 14-race card. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a low 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Ideal Beach (4-1)-Had a sick scratch so was off 3 weeks before the last start, and faded late in the mile. Did stop the timer in 153.1 and has had issues so not looking for a 150.1 mile as was the case here on 1-29. Comes back in sequence and should be in the hunt.
3-Straight Talk (7/2)-Raced evenly on 4-28 but that was the 1st start since 3-18 and had a lame scratch in the mix as well. Todd McCarthy sticks here over #5 the 5/2 morning line choice, could be sitting on a big try.
4-Real Lucky N (5-1)-Won a MADC race last week by wiring the field in the slop and that was the 1st picture at M1 in 6 tries. This veteran knows how to win, Gingras gets the assignment and could double up here as a fast track shouldn't hurt chances.

Race 7

4-Rocknroll Nella (8-1)-Had been racing well versus cheaper and went the back half in 55.2 to post the 1st win of the year. This will be a test but draws well and would rather string along in a race without a standout.
6-Huntress (7/2)-This is a nice mare that likes to win. Held her own and then some at YR. Connections must feel she could hold up down the long stretch and it's probably best to not overlook.
10-Hot Mess Express (3-1)-Wouldn't want a short price from this spot but has sub-1.50 speed when 100% and drops. Zeron needs to do his part but has the gate speed to get a good early seat. It's risky to leave off the ticket even with this post draw.

Race 8

2-Distance Learning (9/2)-Comes off a decent try to finish 2nd and got on the point early in the mile. Maybe the breaking issues have been conquered as Dunn returns for his 2nd straight steer for the Tritton barn.
6-Nice Guy Eddie (7/2)-Has been a mess at Yonkers and Pocono repeatedly breaking stride. In between the breaks was a good try versus better in the slop at M1. Mark MacDonald drove that night and will be steering again. Should be in the mix at the wire with a flat mile.

Race 9

2-Hunt You Down (6-1)-Looking for a price and will take a swing the 4-year-old gets off the gate and lands in a decent seat. Has the speed to beat this crew if motivated when the wings fold. Knows how to pass down the lane but needs to be in striking range at the 3/4's pole.
5-Sunshine's Finest (4-1)-Got a nice trip and finished a close 2nd in last. Beat similar to this on 4-7. In both cases drew well and got a good steer. Should be a player with the same formula.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,3,4/4,6,10/2,6/2,5
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2023, 05:35 AM

Kentucky Oaks Pick 4 Analysis: Friday, May 5

May 5, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
The eyes of the racing world will be on the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, but don’t lose sight of Friday’s 13-race Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs. The Late Pick 4 wager that begins in race 8 encompasses the G-I Kentucky Oaks, G-I La Troienne and G-2 Edgewood on the turf – all with 10 or more entries. Last year’s Oaks Pick 4 paid $1,093 for a 50-cent wager with three winners at 4-1 odds or less. Here’s a look at this year’s races with a suggested $42 play:

CD 8th race (3:03 EST) -- CARAVEL checks all the boxes as a solo play to lead off the Pick 4, albeit at a short price. She is the lone millionaire in the $300,000 Unbridled Sidney Stakes, having defeated the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 42-1 odds, then returning six months later to do it again, repelling two challenges and digging in for another photo-finish victory in the G-II Shakertown. She’s fast enough to overcome post 11, versatile enough to handle firm or soft footing and undeniably resilient in her attempt to win at her seventh different turf venue.

CD 9th race (4:04 EST) -- With a solo play on the favorite in the first leg of the Pick 4, I’ll try to beat SECRET OATH, last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner and classiest runner in the $750,000 La Troienne (G-I). Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas said in published reports this week that Secret Oath is as good as ever, but she returns in three weeks off a gut-wrenching, photo-finish setback against Clairiere in the G-I Apple Blossom at this distance. The only time she raced on shorter rest was a troubled fourth in last year’s Preakness, following her Oaks victory. PLAYED HARD won off a six-month layoff to begin a $777k season as a 4-year-old that included a pair of G-III route victories at Churchill Downs. In her lone G-I test last year, she backed off an early duel with Letruska, a five-time G-I winner on the front end, and finished third after six-time G-I winner Malathaat and three-time G-I placed Army Wife passed by. SEARCH RESULTS back-pedaled in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff when last seen in November, but she was 9/4-2-3 in her previous graded states attempts and is working forwardly for her return at a preferred distance. The well-traveled A MO REAY willingly pursued the odds-on favorite in the G-I Beholder Mile at Santa Anita and surged by late to prevail. She has been at Churchill for more than a month and at least gets pace to rally into after drawing the outside post.

CD 10th race (4:51 EST) -- REVALITA’S debut in the U.S. was a good one. She was unhurried in last for a half-mile in a compact field and further compromised by a slow pace. She swung 6-wide in the stretch, finished full of run and galloped out far in front. The lack of pace in this field and post 11 are deterrents, but she gets top billing in the $500k Edgewood (G-II) on the lawn. PAPILIO checked sharply while 5-wide on the backstretch against REVALITA and just missed in her stateside debut. She bounced back stronger in G-II Appalachian on the Keeneland Turf, tracking the pace while unhurried until mid-turn, closing powerfully in the 5-path and winning despite lugging in repeatedly in the stretch. She withstood an objection claim, but if she can maintain a straighter course, she can repeat.

CD 11th race (5:51 EST) – The featured $1.3 million Kentucky Oaks (G-1) has myriad possibilities, so hit the ‘ALL’ button in the Pick 4. Morning-line favorite WET PAINT rallied from far back to win going away in back-to-back G-III stakes route races at Oaklawn Park but offers little value. On the contrary, the three G-I winners in the field --WONDER WHEEL, AND TELL ME NOLIES and DEFINING PURPOSE – are double-digit odds. SOUTHLAWN and AFFIRMATIVE LADY arrive off G-II upset wins at 1-1/16 miles, while MIMI KAKUSHI arrives from Dubai for her seasonal debut with three consecutive stakes wins from outside posts. All that being said, I think THE ALYS LOOK is the liveliest price play in the field. She was no match for SOUTHLAWN in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but she progressed steadily before then and kept a busy – and strong – work tab since then. She is one of three entrants for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, who won the Oaks in 2018 and 2020.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket
CD 8th Race: 11
CD 9th Race: 1, 2, 10
CD 10th Race: 9, 11
CD 11th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $42

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2023, 05:35 AM

Kentucky Oaks Pick 4 Analysis: Friday, May 5

May 4, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The eyes of the racing world will be on the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, but don’t lose sight of Friday’s 13-race Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs. The Late Pick 4 wager that begins in race 8 encompasses the G-I Kentucky Oaks, G-I La Troienne and G-2 Edgewood on the turf – all with 10 or more entries. Last year’s Oaks Pick 4 paid $1,093 for a 50-cent wager with three winners at 4-1 odds or less. Here’s a look at this year’s races with a suggested $42 play:

CD 8th race (3:03 EST) -- CARAVEL checks all the boxes as a solo play to lead off the Pick 4, albeit at a short price. She is the lone millionaire in the $300,000 Unbridled Sidney Stakes, having defeated the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 42-1 odds, then returning six months later to do it again, repelling two challenges and digging in for another photo-finish victory in the G-II Shakertown. She’s fast enough to overcome post 11, versatile enough to handle firm or soft footing and undeniably resilient in her attempt to win at her seventh different turf venue.

CD 9th race (4:04 EST) -- With a solo play on the favorite in the first leg of the Pick 4, I’ll try to beat SECRET OATH, last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner and classiest runner in the $750,000 La Troienne (G-I). Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas said in published reports this week that Secret Oath is as good as ever, but she returns in three weeks off a gut-wrenching, photo-finish setback against Clairiere in the G-I Apple Blossom at this distance. The only time she raced on shorter rest was a troubled fourth in last year’s Preakness, following her Oaks victory. PLAYED HARD won off a six-month layoff to begin a $777k season as a 4-year-old that included a pair of G-III route victories at Churchill Downs. In her lone G-I test last year, she backed off an early duel with Letruska, a five-time G-I winner on the front end, and finished third after six-time G-I winner Malathaat and three-time G-I placed Army Wife passed by. SEARCH RESULTS back-pedaled in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff when last seen in November, but she was 9/4-2-3 in her previous graded states attempts and is working forwardly for her return at a preferred distance. The well-traveled A MO REAY willingly pursued the odds-on favorite in the G-I Beholder Mile at Santa Anita and surged by late to prevail. She has been at Churchill for more than a month and at least gets pace to rally into after drawing the outside post.

CD 10th race (4:51 EST) -- REVALITA’S debut in the U.S. was a good one. She was unhurried in last for a half-mile in a compact field and further compromised by a slow pace. She swung 6-wide in the stretch, finished full of run and galloped out far in front. The lack of pace in this field and post 11 are deterrents, but she gets top billing in the $500k Edgewood (G-II) on the lawn. PAPILIO checked sharply while 5-wide on the backstretch against REVALITA and just missed in her stateside debut. She bounced back stronger in G-II Appalachian on the Keeneland Turf, tracking the pace while unhurried until mid-turn, closing powerfully in the 5-path and winning despite lugging in repeatedly in the stretch. She withstood an objection claim, but if she can maintain a straighter course, she can repeat.

CD 11th race (5:51 EST) – The featured $1.3 million Kentucky Oaks (G-1) has myriad possibilities, so hit the ‘ALL’ button in the Pick 4. Morning-line favorite WET PAINT rallied from far back to win going away in back-to-back G-III stakes route races at Oaklawn Park but offers little value. On the contrary, the three G-I winners in the field --WONDER WHEEL, AND TELL ME NOLIES and DEFINING PURPOSE – are double-digit odds. SOUTHLAWN and AFFIRMATIVE LADY arrive off G-II upset wins at 1-1/16 miles, while MIMI KAKUSHI arrives from Dubai for her seasonal debut with three consecutive stakes wins from outside posts. All that being said, I think THE ALYS LOOK is the liveliest price play in the field. She was no match for SOUTHLAWN in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but she progressed steadily before then and kept a busy – and strong – work tab since then. She is one of three entrants for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, who won the Oaks in 2018 and 2020.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket
CD 8th Race: 11
CD 9th Race: 1, 2, 10
CD 10th Race: 9, 11
CD 11th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $42

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2023, 05:36 AM

Meet the Contenders: 2023 Kentucky Oaks

May 2, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Friday’s main event features the fillies for the lilies in the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. It’s Race 11 of 13 with a post time slated for 5:51 pm ET. A full field of 14 entered, along with a trio of also-eligible hopefuls.

Horseplayers betting the Kentucky Derby (Saturday) and Kentucky Oaks (Friday) cards can enjoy a $10 money-back special on win bets if those selections finish second or third in any race either day.

Let’s meet the contenders for Kentucky Oaks 149:

#1-Mimi Kakushi (Mikael Barzalona//Salem bin Ghadayer) 20-1
Dubai-based daughter of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup winner City of Light, who posted his signature BC score over the main track at Churchill Downs. She’s won 3 straight, including the UAE 1000 Guineas at 1 mile and the Grade 3 UAE Oaks at 1-3/16 miles, an additional 110 yards longer than the Kentucky Oaks. Jockey Barzelona won the 2011 Epsom Derby at age 19 and the Dubai World Cup a year later. His top US success was 2017 BC Turf winner Talismanic.

#2-The Alys Look (Javier Castellano//Brad Cox) 15-1
Veteran of 3 stops on the Fair Grounds tour this winter/spring, winning the Silverbulletday in the middle before a third-place run in the Fair Grounds Oaks, 7 lengths behind Southlawn. Trainer Cox won the 2018 Oaks (Monomoy Girl) and 2020 Oaks (Shedaresthedevil). Jockey Castellano piloted Cathryn Sophia to the Oaks crown in 2016. Her worst career race came at Churchill Downs in her only appearance, raising some concern about her affinity for the surface (albeit a wet track may have been the culprit).

#3-Gambling Girl (Irad Ortiz Jr.//Todd Pletcher) 15-1
Minor checks in all 4 career starts against open-company for this New York-bred. Her last 2 losses came at the heels of Oaks rivals Wet Paint and Promiseher America. Trainer Pletcher has 4 Oaks wins from 2004-2021, most recently with Malahaat. A fifth would tie Woody Stephens and D. Wayne Lukas for the all-time record. He also saddled last year’s runner-up Nest. Filly is sired by a beaten Kentucky Derby favorite (Dialed In) and her damsire is also a dispatched Derby chalk (Empire Maker).

#4-Southlawn (Reylu Gutierrez//Norm Casse) 8-1
Vastly improved in 2 starts this year, both wins, after a non-descript freshman campaign. Well-beaten in both Churchill main track appearances last year (8-3/4 and 13 lengths). Those efforts seem a distant memory after romping by 11-1/4 combined lengths in her ’23 New Orleans outings. The last Fair Grounds Oaks winner to add the lilies in Louisville was Untapable in 2014. Son, Norm Casse, takes on his father, Mark, in the Oaks as their fillies break next door.

#5-Wonder Wheel (Joel Rosario//Mark Casse) 12-1
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Champion 2-Year-Old Filly has been off the mark in both tries this season at 1-2 and 3-2 odds. Her stunning loss in the listed Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs was followed up with another step backward in the Grade 1 Ashland, where she was beaten almost 6 lengths to Oaks return rival Defining Purpose. The last 2YO Filly champ to win the Oaks was Silverbulletday in 1999, and she’ll need a wakeup call to update that historical footnote. Mark Casse trained 2018 Oaks runner-up Wonder Gadot.

#6-Botanical (Chris Landeros//Brad Cox) 4-1
The hottest filly in the Oaks seeks a fifth straight victory after running the table this winter-spring at Turfway Park. Wire-to-wire Bourbonette Oaks winner will see if she can transfer her speed to dirt for the first time. If so, expect her to be on or near the lead. Sire Medaglia d’Oro was famously responsible for 2008 Oaks annihilator Rachel Alexandra, as well as 2011 Oaks winner Plum Pretty and the great Songbird, who would have been a huge Oaks favorite in 2016 if not for missing the race with a fever. Trainer Cox won the 2018 Oaks (Monomoy Girl) and 2020 Oaks (Shedaresthedevil).

#7-Wet Paint (Flavien Prat//Brad Cox) 5-2
Sweeper of Oaklawn’s series – the Martha Washington, Honeybee and Fantasy Stakes – takes the same Arkansas path as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath. Only 1 Oaks favorite has delivered in the last 8 years (Malathaat in 2021). Trainer Cox won the 2018 Oaks (Monomoy Girl) and 2020 Oaks (Shedaresthedevil). Provides the late portion of the early-late duo with stablemate Botanical. While she’s never raced at Churchill, her sire Blame famously beat Zenyatta in 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic here and her damsire Street Cry crushed the 2002 Foster at Churchill by more than 6 lengths.

#8-Promiseher America (Jorge Vargas Jr.//Ray Handal) 30-1
From third-start maiden breaker to 26-1 upsetter in Aqueduct’s Gazelle, it’s been a rapid rise to the Kentucky Oaks for this Big A winter warrior. The daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has improved in each start as the distances extended. It would be a career-defining score for jockey Jorge Vargas Jr. and trainer Ray Handal.

#9-And Tell Me Nolies (Ramon Vazquez//Peter Miller) 15-1
The only west coaster in the field, note the most recent Californians to win the Oaks came in 2010 (Blind Luck), 2011 (Plum Pretty) and 2017 (Abel Tasman). Runner-up in both starts this year after winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and Grade 2 Chandelier as a juvenile. Chased Faiza in California twice, including the Santa Anita Oaks. That runner is trained by Bob Baffert and not permitted to run in the Kentucky Oaks as part of a house ban of the trainer. And Tell Me Nolies has made only one prior road trip, resulting in her worst performance, eight in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies behind Wonder Wheel.

#10-Flying Connection (Florent Geroux//Todd Fincher) 15-1
Jockey Florent Geroux won the 2018 Oaks (Monomoy Girl) and 2020 Oaks (Shedaresthedevil) teamed with Brad Cox, and now will be on the opposing side. After little impact in two Del Mar starts last summer, this daughter of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist returned home to her New Mexico base with the state’s most dominant trainer. Rolled to back-to-back route stakes wins at Sunland Park on the front end and should be part of the Oaks’ early pace. This will be her class test.

#11-Defining Purpose (Brian Hernandez Jr.//Kenny McPeek) 12-1
Yet another in a long line of longshot Ashland winners the past decade or so, surprising Keeneland’s feature at 20-1 odds. The previous 3 Ashland winners to her went on to run third (Speech, 2020), first (Malathaat, 2021) and second (Nest, 2022) in the Kentucky Oaks. She lost two decisions to Wet Paint at Oaklawn by nearly 8 combined lengths before leaving Hot Springs. Trainer McPeek has been the Oaks runner-up 3 times, 2002 (Take Charge Lady), 2017 (Daddys Lil Darling) and 2020 (Swiss Skydiver). The latter would go on to win the Preakness next out. Hernandez was pilot for the 2017 McPeek bridesmaid.

#12-Dorth Vader (Luis Saez//Mike Yates) 20-1
Lit up the tote at 46-1 when winning the Davona Dale around one turn, but was unable to carry her speed the two-turn trip in the 1-1/16 miles Gulfstream Park Oaks. Now this daughter of hot young sire Girvin will add another 110 yards at Churchill. Damsire Yonaguska primarily known for sprinters. So she might be at the end of her pedigree leash. Likely to be in the early pace mix. Jockey Saez looks for back-to-back Oaks wins after guiding Secret Oath a year ago.

#13-Affirmative Lady (John Velazquez//Graham Motion) 10-1
After four losses to open her career, she comes into the Oaks off back-to-back wins at Gulfstream Park since trainer Motion added blinkers. The Arrogate filly has run around two turns in each of those last four outings, which included a neck runner-up at the Oaks’ 9-furlong distance in last year’s Demoiselle while still a maiden. Jockey Velazquez’s Oaks victories came in 2004 (Ashado) and 2021 (Malathaat) for Todd Pletcher; they’re now matched up against one another.

#14-Pretty Mischievous (Tyler Gaffalione//Brendan Walsh) 10-1
Near-sweep of the New Orleans scene after wins in the Untapable and Rachel Alexandra was followed by a runner-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Trainer Walsh is coming off a fantastic Keeneland meeting and hitting on all cylinders. Jockey Gaffalione led the Keeneland meet and has won the last 6 titles at Churchill. He piloted 2020 Oaks runner-up Swiss Skydiver. Sire Into Mischief also has Oaks hopeful Wonder Wheel representing the pedigree brand.

Also-Eligible:

#15-Taxed (Rafael Bejarano//Randy Morse) 20-1
No match for Wet Paint in a trio of stakes tries at Oaklawn, she’s just 1-for-7 lifetime with a maiden claiming score. That win did come over the main track at Churchill last year. She has made more than 3 times that $50,000 claiming price so far in 2023 with runner-up tries in the Martha Washington and Fantasy Stakes. Jockey Bejarano tasted Oaks glory in 2010 (Blind Luck).

#16-Julia Shining (Luis Saez//Todd Pletcher) 15-1
Regally bred daughter of Curlin and Julia Shining, the dam of 2021 Oaks winner Malathaat and herself the beaten favorite in the 2013 Oaks. She’s finished third in both starts this year, the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs and the Ashland at Keeneland. Trainer Pletcher has 4 Oaks wins from 2004-2021, most recently with Malahaat. A fifth would tie Woody Stephens and D. Wayne Lukas for the all-time record. He also saddled last year’s runner-up Nest. Jockey Saez looks for back-to-back Oaks wins after guiding Secret Oath a year ago. He will ride Julia Shining and hop off Dorth Vader if this filly draws into the field.

#17-Hoosier Philly (Edgar Morales//Tom Amoss) 30-1
Sensational winner of Churchill’s Golden Rod to close her freshman season, there was serious talk about her being a Kentucky Derby horse into the spring. But those dreams dissipated after a stunning defeat at 2-5 in Fair Grounds’ Rachel Alexandra. The pubic held onto her juvenile memory upon her follow-up in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but the result slipped further from her promise when a distant fourth. Trainer Amoss won the 2019 Oaks (Serengeti Empress).