Saturday 5/6/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:22 AM

Jeff Nahill’s Kentucky Derby handicap (Stakes races for Saturday, May 6)

FOURTH RACE: 2-3-5-4

FIFTH RACE: 7-5-3-2-4

SIXTH RACE: 2-6-3-11-8

SEVENTH RACE: 2-11-4-3-8

EIGHTH RACE: 1-7-5-9-11

NINTH RACE: 11-2-1-14-6

10TH RACE: 5-7-10-6-11

11TH RACE: 7-8-10-5-1 (BEST BET)

12TH RACE (Kentucky Derby); 1. Two Phil’s, 2. Mandarin Hero, 3. Angel of Empire, 4. Derma Sotogake. LONG SHOT: Confidence Game.

To say this has been a weird Derby week with four scratches before Saturday is an unsderstatement. I lost two West Coast horses that I thought would run well, but that’s life. TWO PHIL’S has done little wrong on the trail and has done well on dirt and all-weather surfaces. I think he’s sitting on a big race. MANDARIN HERO is from Japan and put in a huge effort in the Santa Anita Derby to finish second. Will he bounce today? Good question but at the price I’m willing to find out. ANGEL OF EMPIRE has also been strong on the trail and has been impressive. DERMA SOTOGAKE might be the best from Japan but how he reacts off the huge Dubai win has to be questioned. I really wanted to pick CONFIDENCE GAME on top, but the layoff since the big win in Arkansas has to leave some doubts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:22 AM

Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Radio Red suited by class drop and turnback

Posted on May 5, 2023 by David Aragona
Belmont | Race 4 | Post Time 2:04 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs
I have some reservations about both horses who could take money in this New York-bred allowance affair. Pineapple Man (#2) looks appealing based on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, where he is shown as the clear early leader in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, I wonder if this is just a prep for something longer. We saw Mike Maker recently bring back a horse of similar ability, Rotknee, who needed a start coming off the layoff. His overall numbers with this move are decent, but I suspect this could just be a prep for something longer.
I’m a little more against Zeebear (#7), who will attract support based on a starter allowance victory last time. The race earned a solid speed figure, but Zeebear had so much working in his favor that day. He closed into a wicked pace and also stayed in the outside paths on a day when the rail was a disadvantage. I’ll be surprised if he runs as well this time.
I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. My top pick is Radio Red (#6). This horse showed some hints of ability in his first couple of starts. He ran deceptively well in his return in January when getting a tentative ride in a race that looked like a prep. He then took a big step forward to break his maiden on Feb. 9, putting forth an effort that makes him competitive here. They tried the Gotham last time where he was overmatched, and he ended up chasing a fast pace that fell apart. I like the turnback and he still has upside as a 3-year-old facing older rivals.
I could also use Braciole (#1). The expected pace of this race might not suit him as well, but he ran better than the result indicates last time when he was racing too close to a bad rail in a race dominated on the front end. He’s otherwise been in strong form and should run well here at a square price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:24 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/6/23

May 6, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Mas Rapido; 5-Hogmanay
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Mas Rapido is winless in six starts since arriving from England but his numbers are fast and improving and the sophomore should be able to break through soon, perhaps today. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained gelding projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal in this six furlong flat course dash for first level allowance optional claimers. Hogmanay is quite interesting in his U.S. debut for European specialist trainer Phil D’Amato. A winner from 13 rivals in his only outing over an all-weather track at Dundalk last year, the Irish-bred gelding has trained impressively for his local bow and should fire a huge shot for a barn that hits with an impressive 19% with these overseas shippers. Though he’s a “must use,” we’ll give Mas Rapido a slight edge on top while including both in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Strike That; 5-Red Line
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: This extended sprint for starter optional claimers should be slowly run early due to a lack of pace among the six entrants. Strike That, a first-off-the-claim play for a barn that hits at 29% with a significant ROI with this angle, looks like the potential controlling speed, and although moving up ambitiously from $16,000 to this $32,000 level the son of Biondetti has back form that would win and a projected race shape that makes him dangerous in his second start off a long layoff. Redline may be the best of the closing types, though easy early fractions could soften the effectiveness of his late kick. First or second in half of his 14 career starts, the Steve Knapp-trained son of Texas Red has won over this track and distance in the past. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Ready Jet Go; 5-Over Attracted
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast:This starter allowance turf six furlong sprint over the flat course for fillies and mares is a difficult affair in which nothing would surprise. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows; small ticket player should concentrate on the two listed above. Over Attracted and Ready Jet Go finished two-three in a similar event last month and both should fire good shots right back despite this race being a half furlong farther. The former lacks the early speed that her chief rival is likely to display but can turn it on late, especially if she can get some help up front. The negative for Over Attracted is that she is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita lawn. Ready Jet Go has finished in the frame in five of eight starts over the local lawn with a one victory, so she may be a bit more trustworthy. Truthfully, they’re tough to separate.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Blue Cheese Olive; 1-Montana
Backups/Savers: 2-Finally an Eddie

Forecast: Modest maiden $50,000 California-bred claimers sprint six furlongs in a race in which each of the seven entrants finished off the board last time out, so anything goes. Blue Cheese Olive makes the pivotal class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming and displayed good speed in his debut when finishing second in a race that if repeated should beat this field. However, he was far back in his second start, so his connections drop him to a realistic spot while adding blinkers that hopefully will do some good. The break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aladoor won’t hurt, either. Montana also is exiting a series of straight maiden events, and in his only prior start at this level last summer at Del Mar he finished a respectable second after leading until close home. On pure numbers, he’s the one our top pick must worry about the most. Finally an Eddie is slow on numbers but is yet another that might improve in this easier spot in his first outing on dirt. He also removes blinkers, so there are reasons to hope for a forward move.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-An Agent Mistake
Backups/savers: 3-Leisurewear

Forecast: An Agent Mistake prefers to settle early and produce a late kick, and in a race that has plenty of speed signed on the Doug O’Neill-trained filly should have enough pace up front to compliment her closing style. This will be her third start off a layoff, and it should be her best. The daughter of Klimt in strong in the speed figure department and gets an extra furlong to work with today. Leisurewear, in the money in 10 of 14 career outings but with only one win on her resume, has been away since late December but shows a sharp series of recent drills that should have her cranked up and ready. She also gets a break in the weights, but the concern is that her only win was accomplished gate to wire, and she may not have that luxury today with sprinter-stretching-out Hayley Levade drawn inside of her.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Tahoe Sunrise; Navy Man
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Tahoe Sunrise graduated at first asking in extra game fashion in a legitimate race for straight maidens. He moves into listed company in this year’s edition of the Lazaro Barrera Stakes but with only three other runners in the field the class hike should be well within his abilities. Navy Man was a fast winner of a maiden dash last month, lands the cozy outside post, and really won’t have to improve much to score right back. Toss out his two route races and his resume is strong and consistent. Furthermore, a bullet :58 3/5 five furlong drill last week (fastest of 36) should have this son of Bolt d’Oro primed for another smasher. With Tahoe Sunrise projecting as the controlling speed, we’ll put him slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Teena Ella; 7-Fast and Shiny
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Teena Ella won’t ever be as good as her mother (Beholder) but she’s on the verge of becoming a stakes winner, and that’s pretty nice in its own right. A close second in the Angel’s Flight Stakes over this course and distance in late March, the daughter of War Front has speed figures that continue to rise, and with another forward move today the Richard Mandella-trained sophomore should be capable of earning valuable black type in this year’s renewal of the Senorita Stakes-G3. The same filly that just edged her last time out – Fast and Shiny – is back to face her again, but must pick up 2 lbs., for whatever that’s worth. Comfortably drawn outside but perhaps facing a bit more early speed today, the Bob Baffert-trained Bernardini filly seeks her third straight score, and it would hardly be a surprise if she extended her winning streak.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Winter Falcon; 4-Barsabas
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Winter Falcon makes his first start following a Jonathan Wong claim (a powerful 28% with this angle), is wheeled back at the same $20,000 price, and vans down from Golden Gate Fields for this restricted (nw-3) extended main track sprint. The rail is no bargain, but with a clean break the son of Mizzen Mast should be able to gain a favorable second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from there. He’s run only once on conventional dirt – last summer at Pleasanton – and won from the rail, so maybe this is what he’s always wanted to do. Barsabas, a $25,000 Eddie Truman claim, is another switching surfaces and could perk up on this main track. He’s won on dirt in the past, has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level, and gets a break in the weights after picking up bug boy Aguilar. At 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth tossing in. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Vanzzy; 2-Yes This Time
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Vanzzy has run well at this trip in the past, and in his second start off a long layoff while dropping out of a much tougher graded stakes event the Dan Blacker-trained veteran has a right to produce a significant forward move. He has a prior win over the local lawn, a good stalking style that should produce an ideal, trouble-free trip, and speed figures that can beat this field. Yes This Time always has been a one-paced grinder but he knows where the wire is (six wins from 19 starts) and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip. A repeat of his solid runner-up performance vs. similar last month makes him the one to fear most.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Taming the Tigress; 1-Ole Silver
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Taming the Tigress has faced nothing but state-bred stakes company in her four races since being claimed for $20,000 last fall and should greatly appreciate this class relief. First or second in 12 of 20 career starts, she’s always been dependable when properly spotted and this seven furlong trip fits her perfectly. She is the likely choice and one to beat. Ole Silver can be dangerous at any distance, and after a clever win from a similar starter allowance field over a mile last month she shortens to seven furlongs and looks tough right back despite her rail draw. The veteran mare is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, shows consistently solid speed figures that fit nicely at this level, and can be effective on the front end or from a second flight, stalking position. ‘Tigress gets the edge on top, but both should be included in your rolling exotics.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Thorne House
Backups/savers: 8-King Apollo

Forecast: Thorne House has never been worse than second in six career starts and can be counted on for another solid, honest effort in this six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for first-level allowance older horses. He was too far back early in his most recent outing and was simply given too much to do when an unlucky second facing similar foes last month. With clean journey today, he should be hard to beat. King Apollo is worth tossing in as a backup. Third with a less than ideal trip in the same race our top pick exits, the son of Palace Malice is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita grass course and always has been most effective when held up early and allowed to run late. We expect he’ll receive that type of trip from hot riding Kent Desormeaux.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:24 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Jackpot Hi-5 Analysis

May 6, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight's Jackpot Hi-5 pool at Woodbine Mohawk Park is estimated to be $1,000,000 and there will be a mandatory payout. The Race 12 event will feature 12 pacers battling for a share of a $20,000 purse. The weather should cooperate and with a $271,267.52 carryover getting a seven-figure betting pool is a real possibility. Full disclosure a Jackpot Hi-5 is not my favorite bet. Actually, the only Hi-5's that usually pique my interest are not of the Jackpot variety. That is normally the case except when there is a large carryover, a massive pool expected with a mandatory payout.

My play will be based on the two program chalks living up to expectations. The rail horse, 1-Sintra (3-1) with James MacDonald is the slight morning line choice over 2-Real Willy (7/2)who will be driven by Doug McNair. This will be the first start off the bench for Sintra who has been idle since 2-4, and the 10-year-old son of Mach 3 lands in a soft spot. Real Willy faded badly down the lane in his last start after racing in the 2-hole into a solid pace versus better. That race came on an off track and Willy has only 1 win in 22 starts on a wet surface. McNair will do the steering as he has often done with this 8-year-old who is looking for his first win this year.

My thinking is McNair will look to land on the point but could settle for a pocket ride behind Sintra. If MacDonald doesn't get on the engine, he shouldn't be far back and will look to work a stalking trip to roll by down the lane. My choice wouldn't be to key the two chalks on top if possible. But in this case the back class of Sintra can't be ignored and Willy should relish the company as well.

My expectation is the pace will be lively and will look for 8-Dr Joe (10-1) with Bob McClure to be rolling hard down the lane as is his typical style. The key to this Bettors Delight gelding being able to finish near the top of the ticket will depend on how close he can be to the leaders at the head of the stretch. Joe has four consecutive sub 27 second last quarters and it would not be a shock if the half mile was paced faster than .56. If so, McClure could rally and help bolster the Jackpot payout.

Comments and selections are based on a fast track.

Race 12
0.20 Hi-5

1,2/1,2,8/1,2,3,6,8,12/1,2,3,5,6,8,9,11,12/All
Total Bet=$153.60

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:25 AM

Jeff Siegel: Kentucky Derby Picks

May 5, 2023
Following the latest scratches and news for Kentucky Derby 149, 1/ST and Xpressbet handicapper Jeff Siegel has updates his picks for Saturday's Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

17 - Derma Sotogake

5 - Tapit Trice

14 – Angel of Empire

6 – Kingsbarns

Wagering Strategies ($100)

$28 win Derma Sotogake ($28)

$8 Exacta Box Derma Sotogake w/Tapit Trice w/Angel of Empire ($48)

$2 Exacta Box Derma Sotogake w/Tapit Trice w/Kingsbarns ($12)

$2 Exacta Box Derma Sotogake w/Tapit Trice w/Confidence Game ($12)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:25 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Derby Day Pick 4 & 5 Analysis | Saturd

May 5, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Kentucky Derby betting bonanza at Churchill Downs also includes lucrative multi-race bets that end in the Run for the Roses. Last year’s similar pick 5 handled $4.6 million and paid $247K to its winners. The pick 4 ending in the Derby handled $3.3M and returned its backers $25K.

Let’s get to work.

Churchill Downs | Race 8 | Pat Day Mile

Deep field of 14 sprinters without much separating many of them. You can quickly get deep in this race if not making some tough decisions. #1 Kangaroo Court should be rail speed on the stretch-out and most effective among the front-runners. #9 General Jim was tenacious finishing in the Swale and comes in fresh for respected trainer Shug McGaughey. The longshot look is #3 Lugan Knight (20-1 ML), who has lost form a bit I his last pair, but showed a lot of promise prior and has some excuses lately to maybe overlook.

Churchill Downs | Race 9 | American Turf

Many outstanding options in this 14-horse affair where even also-eligible #15 Wadsworth offers a lot of interest. #4 Talk of the Nation and #5 Johannes have been perfect since moving to turf. #6 Behind Enemy Lines lived up to all the billing in his US debut at Gulfstream. #2 Far Bridge and #1 Major Dude are Todd Pletcher trainees drawn well with upside and proven credentials, respectively. #11 Carl Spackler hinted at stardom in his maiden breaker at Gulfstream and is freshened for this after scratching at Keeneland because of a poor post draw. He’s out wide again, unfortunately.

Churchill Downs | Race 10 | Churchill Downs Handicap

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner #7 Cody’s Wish will be a strong favorite and obviously the one to fend off late. He’s the most likely single in the sequence for a lot of horseplayers as well. #10 Endorsed is in raging career form and gets top local rider Tyler Gaffalione again. #8 Fortin Hill is a sprinter with more natural speed than most of these and he ran an absolutely fabulous race last time at Keeneland to reel in a lone speed horse he had no business beating. I love the confident class rise and Fortin Hill is the upset pick at 20-1 ML.

Churchill Downs | Race 11 | Turf Classic

#9 Spooky Channel may be 8 years old, but he continues to get better and better. His strong 2023 performances have been without a single bit of pace help. The six-furlong splits in his races were 1:16-2/5, 1:17-2/5 and 1:15-1/5, and yet he’s come with a strong run every time. He’ll get a faster pace to help his rally and he’s paired beautifully with finishing jockey Joel Rosario. #7 Hong Kong Harry should be strong in his second start off the layoff and also closing with energy, but I’m not willing to double the cost of the ticket to see that through. Single #9 Spooky Channel at 5-1 ML.

Churchill Downs | Race 12 | Kentucky Derby 149

The two best prep trail performances this year belonged to #17 Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby and #14 Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby. This gives us a strong early and late combination in terms of pace, having a live wire no matter how it shakes up, slow or fast.

The Ticket
9,1,3 with 4,5,6,2,1,11,15(ae) with 8,7,10 with 9 with 17,14 = $63 if all runners start for $0.50 (or $54 if the also-eligible doesn't draw into Race 9)

Budget players: The pick 4 sequence can be had for $21 (or $18 if the also-eligible doesn’t draw into Race 9).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:34 AM

Jon White: Kentucky Derby Final Selections

May 3, 2023 | By Jon White
EDITOR'S NOTE: Jon White's original top selection for Kentucky Derby 149, Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move, was declared a scratch Thursday afternoon after spiking a temperature. His analysis has been updated to reflect that change.

Oh my goodness. It appears that Saturday’s $3 million Kentucky Derby is loaded with viable candidates that possess the credentials to be posing in the winner’s circle after around two minutes of equine combat is over.

The way it’s shaping up in terms of looking to be so competitive, I think this year’s Kentucky Derby is something for horseplayers to savor beforehand. I see it as an absolutely fascinating handicapping puzzle that presents quite a challenge to try and solve.

I wrote the two paragraphs above for Xpressbet.com prior to the 2022 Kentucky Derby. And it appears to me that the 2023 renewal looks much the same way.

And what happened last year? Rich Strike pulled off a shocking victory at the humongous odds of 80-1. It was the second-biggest upset in the history of this country’s longest continuously run sporting event, topped only by 91-1 Donerail in 1913.

Rich Strike, who got the job done by three-quarters of a length last year, returned $163.60 for each $2 bet on him to win. His $2 win payoff has been exceeded only by Donerail’s $184.90 in 1913.

As for this year’s Kentucky Derby, my selections are below:

1. Kingsbarns (12-1 morning line)
2. Tapit Trice (5-1)
3. Angel of Empire (8-1)
4. Forte (3-1)

Rounding out my final Kentucky Derby Top 10:

5. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
6. Skinner (20-1)
7. Two Phil’s (12-1)
8. Veryifying (15-1)
9. Disarm (30-1)
10. Confidence Game (20-1)

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 is a ranking of how I see the horses in terms of the likeliest winner. It’s not an attempt to forecast the order of finish.

Below is a horse-by-horse look at my final Kentucky Derby Top 10.

KINGSBARNS. Ranked No. 1. Post position 6. Morning line 12-1. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

As in the case of Practical Move, I put money on Kingsbarns in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on Feb. 12. I bet $200 on Kingsbarns at 35-1 to win $7,000. He is a much shorter price on the Kentucky Derby morning line at 12-1.

Kingsbarns is undefeated in three career starts. He’s the only entrant in this year’s Kentucky Derby with a perfect record.

Considering Kingsbarns has won three races at three different tracks by margins of 1 3/4, 7 3/4 and 3 1/2 lengths, we really don’t know how good he is at this point. Maybe he’s a superstar. Until he gets beat, that is a possibility.

It’s also impressive that Kingsbarns not only had the sheer zip to work a quarter-mile in :20 4/5 last year before fetching a final bid of $800,000 at a 2-year-olds in training sale, he had the stamina to win this year’s Grade II Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles.

It’s true that Kingsbarns was allowed to get away with setting a slow early pace in the Louisiana Derby. But he does not need the early lead in order to win. He was victorious in his first two races from off the pace.

It’s not easy to win a career debut going one mile, which Kingsbarns did. He also didn’t have the best of trips in his first race.

Most expect Kingsbarns to race forwardly in the early furlongs this Saturday. Like Practical Move, I think Kingsbarns has a very good chance to be first or second with a furlong left to run. Again, this is extremely important in that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second a furlong out.

Kingsbarns’ sire, Uncle Mo, sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.

One thing going against Kingsbarns is only two horses have ever won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. They were Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. I think Kingsbarns will have to be a special colt in order to become the third horse to achieve this feat. But as I mentioned earlier, until Kingsbarns tastes defeat, there is a possibility he is a superstar.

It is a bit of a concern to me that it’s been musical jockeys for Kingsbarns. With Flavien Prat opting for Angel of Empire in the Kentucky Derby, Jose Ortiz gets the call on Kingsbarns, who was ridden in his three races before this by Luis Saez, Antonio Gallardo and Prat.

Something to keep in mind, though: A jockey does not always make the right decision. While there are a zillion examples of a jockey taking off a horse who then wins, I will cite two that come to mind regarding the Kentucky Derby.

In the 1995 Kentucky Derby, Mike Smith rode Talkin Man instead of Thunder Gulch. Talkin Man finished 12th as the 4-1 favorite, while Thunder Gulch won in a 24-1 upset.

Trainer Horatio Luro asked legendary Bill Shoemaker to ride Northern Dancer in the 1964 Kentucky Derby. Shoemaker’s preference was to ride Hill Rise. Hill Rise finished a close second as the 7-5 Kentucky Derby favorite, while 3-1 Northern Dancer and jockey Bill Hartack won by a neck. Northern Dancer ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:00 flat to set a Churchill Downs track record that stood until Secretariat won the race in 1:59 2/5, establishing a mark that still stands 50 years later.

Speaking of Secretariat, the perception is that the 1973 Triple Crown winner was a dud at stud. Did he fulfill the unrealistic expectations for him as a sire? No. Was he a flop? No, as evidenced by the fact that he sired a female Horse of the Year in Lady’s Secret, a Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner in Risen Star, plus a Travers Stakes track record setter in General Assembly. Secretariat’s daughter Weekend Surprise produced A.P. Indy, the 1992 Horse of the Year who became an extremely successful sire. Secretariat also sired the exceedingly swift Terlingua, who became the dam of super sire Storm Cat.

If Secretariat was such a failure as a sire, then how come his name appears in the pedigree of 22 of the 23 horses entered in this year’s Kentucky Derby, according to Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin? The only one of the 23 without Secretariat in his bloodlines is Derma Sotogake. You even will find Secretariat showing up in the pedigrees of Japan’s Continuar and Mandarin Hero.

TAPIT TRICE. Ranked No. 2. Post position 5. Morning line 5-1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

I think Tapit Trice will be sent off as the second choice in the betting. As I said Monday morning on Steve Byk’s SiriuxXM radio program At the Races, I actually wouldn’t rule out Tapit Trice giving Forte a run for Kentucky Derby favoritism. In my odds, as I said to Byk, I have Forte at 3-1 and Tapit Trice at 4-1.

Tapit Trice has reeled off four consecutive victories after finishing third when unveiled in a one-mile maiden special weight contest at Aqueduct last Nov. 6.

In his most recent two starts, Tapit Trice rallied to win the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby by two lengths and Grade I Blue Grass Stakes by a neck.

Tapit Trice has been sluggish leaving the gate, which could prove problematic in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. I did like the way the Tapit colt made his move much earlier in the Blue Grass than at Tampa. I also think it’s important that Tapit Trice was a close second with a furlong to go in the Blue Grass. That indicates to me that the $1.3 million auction purchase does have a chance to be first or second a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.

I would have preferred that Tapit Trice to have drawn a post position much farther out than post 5. Starting from post 5 could possibly lead to some traffic issues for him with his come-from-behind style.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE. Ranked No. 3. Post position 13 (saddle 14). Jockey Flavien Prat. Trainer Brad Cox.

Angel of Empire, like Tapit Trice, has a come-from-behind running style. I like Angel of Empire breaking from post 14 a lot better than Tapit Trice beginning from the 5 hole. I think Prat has a better chance to keep Angel of Empire out of traffic trouble than Saez does aboard Tapit Trice.

Then why do I have Tapit Trice picked third and Angel of Empire fourth? The main reason is Tapit Trice has run faster than Angel of Empire. Tapit Trice reached 99 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale when he won the Blue Grass. Angel of Empire’s top Beyer to date is his 94 when he won the Grade I Arkansas Derby.

I do love Angel of Empire’s Beyer Speed Figure pattern in his last five starts. He recorded a 51, then a 74, then an 85, then an 89, then the aforementioned 94.

Angel of Empire followed in the footsteps of his sire, Classic Empire, as an Arkansas Derby winner. Something else I love about Angel of Empire is the way he swept past rivals on the far turn in the Arkansas Derby to put himself in front by 2 1/2 lengths with a furlong to go en route to a dominating 4 1/4-length victory.

It was back on New Year’s Day when Angel of Empire first appeared on my radar, even though he didn’t win that day. Cox sent out undefeated Victory Formation to prove a punctual 1-5 favorite in the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. While Cox obviously was pleased with Victory Formation’s performance, I noticed how he talked up Angel of Empire, who finished second at 18-1. Cox warned everyone that he felt Angel of Empire would do better when getting an opportunity to go farther.

In Angel of Empire’s next start, he did go farther. Sent away at 13-1, he won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles as a 13-1 shot. Victory Formation finished ninth as the 9-5 favorite.

Among the vanquished in Angel of Empire’s Risen Star was Two Phil’s, who would go on to win the Grade III Jeff Ruby by 5 1/4 lengths.

Proving that his Risen Star was no fluke, Angel of Empire then trounced his foes in the Arkansas Derby.

Angel of Empire’s paternal grandsire is Pioneerof the Nile, who finished second as my top pick in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, which was won by 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird. Pioneerof the Nile would go on to sire American Pharoah, who swept the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought.

FORTE. Ranked No. 4. Post position 14 (saddle 15). Morning Line 3-1. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer Todd Pletcher.

Can Forte win the Kentucky Derby? Of course he can. After all, he is the 3-1 morning-line favorite.

Forte is a champion. He was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2022. He’s lost just once in seven career starts. He is a four-time Grade I winner. He’s perfect in two starts this year, taking the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes and Grade I Florida Derby.

In my opinion, based on Forte’s excellent record, he is a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. It is appropriate that he’s been installed as the 3-1 favorite on the morning line crafted by Mike Battaglia, who first made the morning-line odds for the Kentucky Derby all the way back in 1974. In his initial year in the job, Battaglia pegged the coupled entry of Cannonade and Judger as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 100th running of the Kentucky Derby. Cannonade, brilliantly ridden by Angel Cordero Jr., won in a record field of 23. Judger finished eighth.

With Forte boasting such an impressive resume, why don’t I have him ranked higher than No. 5? There are two primary reasons. First, his Beyer Speed Figures are going in the wrong direction. Second, I have a major concern as to whether Forte can be first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby.

After Forte’s 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he registered a 98 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth, then slid further down to a 95 Beyer in the Florida Derby.

Forte’s declining pattern piqued my curiosity. I wondered, “Has any Kentucky Derby winner during the Beyer Speed Figure era had a declining pattern in his final three starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, a la Forte?”

The Beyer Speed Figures were first published in Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby past performances in 1992.

Only once from 1992 to the present has a Kentucky Derby winner had a declining Beyer pattern similar to Forte’s. That one horse was 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who like Forte was the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion.

Street Sense recorded a 108 Beyer when he won the BC Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs in his final start as a 2-year-old. Next, he dropped to a 102 Beyer when he won the Tampa Bay Derby by a nose in his first start at 3. He then declined further to only a 93 Beyer in his nose defeat when second in the Blue Grass Stakes.

After Street Sense’s 93 Beyer in the Blue Grass, he took a giant leap to a 110 Beyer when he won the 2007 Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths.

The fact that only one of the last 31 Kentucky Derby winners went into the race with a declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern similar to Forte’s is, to me, a big red flag for Forte.

I also think it’s a big negative for Forte that he’s been unable to be first or second a furlong out in both of his last two starts. This suggests that he might not be first or second with a furlong left to run in the Kentucky Derby. And if he’s not first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby, it greatly reduces his chances of winning insofar as 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.

Additionally, while I don’t consider this to be a deal-breaker, the BC Juvenile winner has gone on to capture the Kentucky Derby just twice since the Breeders’ Cup came on the scene in 1984. Those two were 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and 2016 Derby winner Nyquist.

DERMA SOTOGAKE. Ranked No. 5. Post position 16 (saddle 17). Morning line 10-1. Jockey Christophe Lemaire. Trainer Hidetaka Otonashi.

To start with, UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake drew post 17 for the Kentucky Derby. According to the Kentucky Derby media guide, going all the way back to when a starting gate was first used in 1930, post 17 is 0 for 43 in the Kentucky Derby.

On top of that, there is the abysmal record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish of 18 UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby was fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.

The best finish by a winner of the UAE Derby was sixth by China Visit in 2000.

Derma Sotogake officially will be carrying 126 pounds in the Kentucky Derby, just like all the other starters.

But the truth is that Derma Sotogake will have to pack a lot more weight than 126 pounds. He will be burdened with more weight than if he were being ridden by a sumo wrestler. That’s because he is Andy Beyer’s pick to win the Kentucky Derby.

As mentioned earlier, Beyer himself readily admits that the record of his top pick in the three Triple Crown events is awful.

In one of the most woeful exhibitions of public handicapping ever seen, Beyer’s top pick in each of the 2015 Triple Crown races was badly outrun.

Before the 2015 Kentucky Derby, I stated in the Louisville Courier-Journal that American Pharoah “reminds me of Seattle Slew” and “just might sweep the Triple Crown.” Did Beyer pick American Pharoah? No, Beyer thought that American Pharoah was overrated.

On Steve Byk’s radio program At the Races that year, Beyer made it clear that he didn’t think that American Pharoah deserved the hype he was getting prior to the Kentucky Derby. Beyer picked Upstart to win. American Pharoah won by one length. Upstart? He was eased and finished 60 1/2 lengths behind American Pharoah.

Firing Line then was Beyer’s top pick in the Preakness. American Pharoah won by seven lengths. Firing Line? He stumbled at the start, was eased and finished 45 lengths behind American Pharoah.

After what happened in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, you might think Beyer finally had learned his lesson and picked American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes, right? Nope. Beyer’s top pick was Materiality. American Pharoah won by 5 1/2 lengths to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought. Materiality? He finished last, 22 1/4 lengths behind American Pharoah.

That means that while American Pharoah was running his way into the history books by sweeping the Triple Crown, Beyer’s top pick lost the three races by a combined 127 3/4 lengths.

Despite Derma Sotogake’s post position, the poor record of UAE Derby runners and being Andy Beyer’s top pick, I do believe a Kentucky Derby triumph by him could happen.

Japanese horses have been running big races all over the globe. Not only did Derma Sotogake win the UAE Derby emphatically by 5 1/2 lengths, he led a 1-2-3-4 sweep in the Grade II event by Japanese runners.

Japan’s Mandarin Hero posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he came within a whisker of winning the Santa Anita Derby despite having previously raced exclusively at a so-called B track in Japan.

Derma Sotogake is considered to be superior to Mandarin Hero. In light of what a fine race Mandarin Hero ran in defeat in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s perfectly understandable why so many think Derma Sotogake has a huge chance to win the Kentucky Derby.

This year’s UAE Derby and Group I Dubai World Cup for older horses do not have official Beyer Speed Figures. However, Randy Moss of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team has said that Derma Sotogake is estimated to not only have run a 106 or 107 Beyer in the UAE Derby, his figure would have been higher than that of the older Ushba Tesora for his win in the Dubai World Cup.

Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby was 1:55.81, making it the second-fastest since the race’s distance was changed to 1,900 meters, or about 1 3/16 miles, in 2010. The fastest time at this distance was Mendelssohn’s 1:55.18 when he won by 18 1/2 lengths in 2018.

Andy Beyer discussed Derma Sotogake when speaking to Byk on his SiriusXM radio program Wednesday (May 3).

“I’m hesitant to give a specific number to Derma Sotogake [for the UAE Derby], because the one year we did that was 2018, when Mendelsson won by a mile,” Beyer said Wednesday. “We’ve got enough data to try to calculate figures and we thought Mendelssohn was a 106. We went public with it. He had the standout figure [in the Kentucky Derby] and lost by about 70 lengths. So, that has chastened me a little bit about making Dubai figures. But I would say that, from everything that we can tell, the UAE Derby [won by Derma Sotogake] was the fastest of all the [Kentucky] Derby prep races.

“Derma Sotogake’s record is exemplary. His Dubai race, if you look at his final time and compare it with the last 10 years of UAE Derbies, it’s like there’s no comparison…Maybe this will be another big UAE Derby figure that loses by 80 lengths, but I can’t really make a case for anybody else in this field that I feel comfortable about.”

It does appear to me that Derma Sotogake is a very talented equine athlete. And like Practical Move and Kingsbarns, Derma Sotogake’s ability to race forwardly early should play well in this year’s Kentucky Derby, which doesn’t seem to have tons of early speed in it.

But can Derma Sotogake overcome his post position, the UAE Derby jinx and, most especially, being Andy Beyer’s choice to win the race?

SKINNER. Ranked No. 6. Post position 9. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey Juan Hernandez. Trainer John Shirreffs.

What makes Skinner look scary to me as a possible Kentucky Derby victor is he’s in the hands of a master horseman who excels at being able to have a horse primed for a big effort on the day of an important event.

Best known as trainer of the great Zenyatta, Shirreffs won the 2005 Kentucky Derby in an upset with Giacomo. I think Skinner might well be better than Giacomo.

Giacomo finished second in the San Felipe, then fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, then peaked on the first Saturday in May to pull off a Kentucky Derby upset. His Beyers in those three races were 93, then 95, then 100.

Skinner finished third in the San Felipe, then a much closer third in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyers in those two races were 94, then 99.

If Skinner’s Beyer trend continues, he stands a good chance to record a triple-digit Beyer in the Kentucky Derby. That makes him a big threat at what should be a very nice price, though probably nowhere close to Giacomo’s Kentucky Derby odds of 50-1. Skinner likely will end up being somewhere around his 20-1 odds on the morning line.

TWO PHIL’S. Ranked No. 7. Post position 3. Morning line 12-1. Jockey Jareth Loveberry. Trainer Larry Rivelli.

The 101 Beyer Speed Figure that Two Phil’s produced in the Grade III Jeff Ruby is the highest official Beyer Speed Figure recorded by any of the entrants in this year’s Kentucky Derby. As noted earlier, Derma Sotogake has been credited with an unofficial Beyer of 106 or 107 by Randy Moss of the Beyer-making team.

The rub is that the 101 Beyer by Two Phil’s came on a synthetic surface and the Kentucky Derby is run on dirt. Did Two Phil’s look so terrific and get that 101 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby because of the synthetic surface?

The main reason I don’t have Two Phil’s ranked higher than No. 8 is the top Beyer that he’s recorded on dirt is only an 88.

I admit to holding a grudge against Two Phil’s after he let me down as my top pick for Xpressbet.com in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. He loomed menacingly in upper stretch, then lacked the needed late punch and finished third to Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder. It’s hard for me to endorse Two Phil’s going 1 1/4 miles off that performance on dirt at 1 1/8 miles.

But there is a possibility that Two Phil’s came up with such a sparkling performance in the Jeff Ruby because he is blossoming at this time of the year, a boy turning into a man. A 3-year-old sometimes does that at this time of the year, such as Charismatic in 1999.

VERIFYING. Ranked No. 8. Post position 2. Morning line 15-1. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer Brad Cox.

Right off the bat, I like Veryifying’s pilot. I am a big fan of Gaffalione. I think he is tremendous.

Largely because of Verifying’s pedigree, I have had my eye on him ever since he won a six-furlong maiden special weight race when unveiled at Saratoga last summer.

Verifying, whose sire is 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, is a half-brother to Midnight Bisou, who was voted a 2019 Eclipse Award as champion older female dirt champion.

In his first 2023 start, Verifying won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest at Oaklawn by 5 1/4 lengths. But he then finished fourth in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel. I think a line can be drawn through that race due to the sloppy track and a trip that wasn’t ideal.

When Verifying was back on dry land in the Grade I Blue Grass, he rebounded and finished second. At the end of a fierce battle with Tapit Trice in the final furlong, Verifying lost the Blue Grass by only a neck.

A lot of people like Tapit Trice, who is the 5-1 second choice on the Kentucky Derby morning line at 5-1, whereas Verifying is a much better price at 15-1. That 15-1 price seemingly is good value in view of the fact that the two colts finished so close together in the Blue Grass.

DISARM. Ranked No. 9. Post position 10 (saddle 11). Morning Line 30-1. Jockey Joel Rosario. Trainer Steve Asmussen.

Asmussen has won more races in North America racing history than any other trainer (10,082 through May 2), but the Hall of Famer is 0 for 24 in the Kentucky Derby.

It’s widely acknowledged that Asmussen was unlucky not to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby. He sent out Epicenter to finish second as the 4-1 favorite to 80-1 Rich Strike.

Rich Strike is 0 for 5 since the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter would go on to win the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes and Grade I Travers Stakes en route to being voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.

Gun Runner, Disarm’s sire, finished third to Nyquist and Exaggerator in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Gun Runner would go on to be voted 2017 Horse of the Year following a string of Grade I wins in the Stephen Foster Handicap, Whitney Stakes, Woodward Stakes and BC Classic.

Disarm is winless in three starts this year. But a closer look at the circumstances of those races suggests he should not be cavalierly dismissed in the Kentucky Derby.

In Disarm’s 2023 debut, he was returning from a long layoff and pretty much had no chance to catch a loose-on-the-early-lead Two Eagles River.

Next, Disarm actually did well to finish second in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby in that he had just one 2023 race under his belt and again he pretty much had no chance to catch a loose-on-the-early-lead Kingsbarns.

Disarm then started in the Grade III Lexington Stakes. At first glance, that seemed to be a disappointing performance. But the reason he was in the race was to just finish third or better, which would earn him sufficient points to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Thus, while Disarm did not finish first or second in the Lexington, the goal for him was achieved in that he finished third.

The way Disarm has looked in his training since the Lexington indicates to me that he is live in the Kentucky Derby as a 30-1 longshot on the morning line.

By the way, I think the best 3-year-old colt in the Asmussen barn might well be running in the first race on the Kentucky Derby card rather than Disarm. That’s Extra Anejo, who I remain sky high on.

Extra Anejo looked awesome when he won his career debut by 9 1/2 lengths at Keeneland last Oct. 13. As noted in his past performance line for that race, he “galloped.” Unfortunately, the $1.35 million auction purchase subsequently was sidelined. He reportedly had a small hind ankle chip that required surgery.

In Saturday’s first race at Churchill Downs, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claiming affair, Extra Anejo breaks from the rail as the 6-5 morning-line favorite. After Extra Anejo’s marvelous five-furlong drill in :59 at Churchill last Sunday (April 30), an usually fast time for an Asmussen trainee, it appears it’s all systems go for the Into Mischief colt off the bench.

However, it looks like Extra Anejo does have a tough foe in Federal Judge, who zipped six furlongs at Oaklawn Park on April 1 in 1:09.87 to win a maiden race by 4 1/2 lengths at first asking. He recorded a snazzy 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Rudy Brisset trains the 3-year-old colt, a son of the exceptionally swift Army Mule.

Federal Judge is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line in Saturday’s race.

CONFIDENCE GAME. Ranked No. 10. Post position 4. Morning Line 20-1. Jockey James Graham. Trainer Keith Desormeaux.

Confidence Game didn’t quite crack my Top 10, but I think he is intriguing. Granted, he’s coming off a 10-week layoff. But I have much respect for his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, who finished second with Exaggerator when Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

This will be Confidence Game’s first start since he splashed home to a one-length victory in the Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25. Not long after that race, Desormeaux said that he might train the Candy Ride colt up to the Kentucky Derby.

I think it helps Confidence Game that he figures to be racing forwardly early Saturday for jockey James Graham. Also, Confidence Game seems to have trained splendidly for this assignment, including a one-mile stamina-building workout in 1:38.20 at Churchill Downs on April 14, followed by a five-furlong bullet drill in :59.00 beneath the Twin Spires on April 29.

While Confidence Game sold for a mere $25,000 at public auction, keep in mind his dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister Zenyatta, one of the greatest female Thoroughbreds of all time. In 2009, Zenyatta became the first -- and still only -- filly or mare to win the BC Classic. She was 19-0 before losing her career finale by a head when runner-up to Blame in the 2010 BC Classic.

Watch out for Confidence Game, who is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line.

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM

I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) back in 1999. Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular for many years. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But when many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, their popularity waned.

I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”

A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.

The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.

The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.

History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.

The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).

Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.

SUN THUNDER AND ROCKET CAN TO ADD BLINKERS

Both Sun Thunder and Rocket Can are listed to have blinkers added to their equipment for the Kentucky Derby. Neither colt has raced with blinkers previously.

Category 6 in my Derby Strikes System has to do with blinkers. A horse gets a strike if blinkers are added or removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby. The reason for this strike is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer generally would not be tinkering with equipment so late in the game. Going all the way back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.

Sun Thunder and Rocket Can do not get a strike for adding blinkers in the Kentucky Derby. Why? Because the Derby Strikes System is designed to determine a horse’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby based on his or her races BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.

While Sun Thunder and Rocket Can are listed to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby and it’s probably going to happen, that’s not set in stone. There are countless examples of a horse having an equipment change of blinkers on or off listed in the past performances, yet it doesn’t happen.

Even though Sun Thunder and Rocket Can don’t get a strike for adding blinkers Saturday, the principle is the same in that if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, a trainer typically would not be tinkering with the horse’s equipment so late in the game.

Sun Thunder officially has two strikes, while Rocket Can officially has one strike.

If Sun Thunder and Rocket Can do in fact add blinkers in the Kentucky Derby, I will consider it being an unofficial strike for them both.

The strikes for the Kentucky Derby entrants are listed below:

ZERO STRIKES

Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
Hit Show
Tapit Trice

ONE STRIKE

Confidence Game (Category 5)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Lord Miles (Category 3)
Raise Cain (Category 5)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)

TWO STRIKES

Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Disarm (Categories 2 and 3)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
Mandarin Hero (Categories 1 and 2)
Skinner (Categories 2 and 3)
Sun Thunder (Categories 2 and 3)
Verifying (Categories 2 and 4)

THREE STRIKES

Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.

The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:

2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money

**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th

STRIKES FOR 1973 KENTUCKY DERBY STARTERS

With this year’s Kentucky Derby attracting additional attention because of it being the 50th anniversary of Secretariat, the strikes in my Derby Strikes System for each of the 13 runners in that renewal are listed below:

ONE OR ZERO STRIKES

Angle Light (0 strikes)
Our Native (1 strike, Category 4)
Restless Jet (1 strike, Category 1)
Royal and Regal (1 strike, Category 4)
Secretariat (0 strikes)
Sham (0 strikes)
Twice a Prince (1 strike, Category 7)

TWO STRIKES
My Gallant (Categories 3 and 4)
Shecky Greene (Categories 4 and 5)

THREE STRIKES
Forego (Categories 2, 7 and 8)
Gold Bag (Categories 2, 4 and 5)
Navajo (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Warbucks (Categories 1, 2 and 3)

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 286 Elite Power (24)
2. 195 Proxy (3)
3. 192 Art Collector (4)
4. 168 Clairiere
5. 138 West Will Power
6. 131 Stilleto Boy
7. 111 Last Samurai
8. 110 Defunded
9. 88 Goodnight Olive
10. 79 Secret Oath

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 321 Forte (28)
2. 269 Tapit Trice (2)
3. 245 Angel of Empire
4. 244 Practical Move (1)
5. 173 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 106 Derma Sotogake (1)
7. 83 Verifying
8. 77 Two Phil’s
9. 65 Mage
10. 64 Confidence Game

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:36 AM

Race of the Week: $1 Million Turf Classic at Churchill Downs

May 3, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Saturday's fabled Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs immediately follows the traditional lead-in, the Grade 1 Turf Classic. By immediately, of course, we mean 90 minutes later on this marathon, 10-hour, 14-race bonanza of great racing.

But before you saddle up with your Kentucky Derby play for this year, let's get the cash in the Turf Classic. For more Kentucky Derby analysis, visit www.1st.com/guide for the 1/ST BET Kentucky Derby Wager Guide.

Horseplayers utilizing the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet betting platforms will enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on every race Friday and Saturday from Churchill Downs if/when their win bet finishes second or third.

Field Depth:
Defending champ SANTIN is the only Grade 1 winner in the lineup. UP TO THE MARK and BYE BYE MELVIN are Grade 1-placed. MASTER PIECE, HONG KONG HARRY and SPOOKY CHANNEL have won at the Grade 2 level. SANTIN, BYE BYE MELVIN and MASTER PIECE have consistently held the strongest company lines in this race.

Pace:
Rail-drawn OCEAN ATLANTIQUE, synthetic specialist WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST and widest-drawn BYE BYE MELVIN should be attending a solid pace for the 1-1/8 miles trip. STEADY ON won't be far off of it as a pressing miler.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-OCEAN ATLANTIQUE: Taken out of his speed game in the Kentucky Cup Classic with a troubled start, so a draw a line through his last. The Turfway synthetic form ourperformed expectations on grass at the recent Keeneland meet. You could do worse than Mike Maker at a price with rail speed in a major Kentucky turf route. Suspicion this American Pharoah gelding might put a scare into them before the closers come calling.

2-MASTER PIECE: At age 7, would join 3 others, including Wise Dan, as the oldest Turf Classic winners. Late-running nibbler rarely gets home in time, winning just 1 of his last 10. Respect the consistent form for a minor share, as well as international rider Christophe Lemaire, who is in town to ride Derma Sotogake in the Kentucky Derby. L

3-WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST: Admire horses who like to win races, 7-for-19 lifetime and 3 scores in the last 4. REgardless of surface, he seems to bring a consistent effort, though he seems best on synthetics. Will have to contend with Ocean Atlantique for early command. John Velazquez piloted Wise Dan to victory in this race in 2014.

4-STEADY ON: First or second in 6 of his last 7 races, this will be the class test for the son of 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof The Nile. Figures to get a good trip just off the speed under jockey Jose Ortiz, who won this race in 2018 aboard Yoshida. Trainer Todd Pletcher's 2 wins in this race came with English Channel (2006) and Colonel Liam (2021). Owner-trainer tandem here same as Kentucky Derby chalk Forte, so it could be a heck of an afternoon.

5-UP TO THE MARK: Third in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland last time out behind a trail-blazing performance by Chez Pierre ... one of the best I've seen on that turf course. Should handle the extra distance on performance and pedigree. Irad Ortiz Jr. looks for a third Turf Classic win, following Bricks and Mortar (2019) and Colonel Liam (2021), the latter also for trainer Todd Pletcher. Pletcher's 2 wins in this race came with English Channel (2006) and Colonel Liam (2021).

6-EARLS ROCK: Has split 4 decisions since returning from a 1-1/2 year layoff last November, all in Southern California. Trainer Phil D'Amato is the best in the west in terms of grass horses and will also bring Hong Kong Harry to the fight. The 9-furlong distance might be stretching this one beyond his best. Preference to the 'other' runner for D'Amato.

7-HONG KONG HARRY: SoCal turf aces Phil D'Amato and Flavien Prat are back paired again with a change in venue. Solid finisher has been favored in 9 of his last 10 starts, but may not have the same respect in this spot. Certainly won't be a big price, but could be a good time to buy up against Pletcher & Company. Jockey Prat won this race in 2021 aboard Domestic Spending. The one to fear late.

8-SANTIN: Since its 1987 inaugural, 3 horses have won the Turf Classic back-to-back (Einstein, Wise Dan and Divisidero) and this 5YO will try to add his name to the select list. He added the Grade 1 Arlington Million win to his resume later in 2022 at Churchill, but that turf course was in a total overhaul at the time and nothing like what we have this spring. Couldn't finish with Hong Kong Harry when sent west to Del Mar for the Seabiscuit, but now gets the home game while training Brendan Walsh is coming off the best Keeneland meet of his career. Should be trending back into form.

9-SPOOKY CHANNEL: The 8YO could become the oldest Turf Classic winner, but there's a lot of tread still on the tires with "only" 28 starts at his advance age. He's won 13 of them, including the Grade 2 Muniz on Fair Grounds' Louisiana Derby Day card. Has had no pace help whatsoever in 3 starts since returning from a year away and yet continues to fire. He'll get a much better set-up Saturday.

10-BYE BYE MELVIN: Off since November, he's no stranger to layoffs, having missed 14 months in 2021-'22. Difficult post for his forward style given there's speed to the inside. Longtime pilot John Velazquez changes seats to ride Wolfie's Dynaghost. His last stakes win was the 2020 Saranac at Saratoga, so we'll take a pass Saturday.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SPOOKY CHANNEL gets a great set-up and has finished within a length at the wire in 6 straight starts.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is the most intriguing of the early pace players to hang around for a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$20 exacta part-wheel SPOOKY CHANNEL over HONG KONG HARRY, UP TO THE MARK and STEADY ON ($60). $40 daily double SPOOKY CHANNEL to FORTE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:36 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - May 6

May. 05, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Itzel	A Alsagoor
PLACE	5-2	3	Mas Rapido	K J Desormeaux
SHOW	8-1	6	Kid Azteca	A Fresu
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Zebul	M E Smith

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Rexford	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	5	Hogmanay	R Gonzalez

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #2 $42,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Redline	T J Pereira
PLACE	2-1	6	Took Charge	E A Maldonado
SHOW	3-1	4	Strike That	K Frey
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Rookie Mistake	A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Next Revolt	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Baladi	A Fresu

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #3 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 ANNIES SONG

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	3	Annies Song	A Cedillo
PLACE	5-1	2	Take a Leap	M Gutierrez
SHOW	5-2	1	Ready Jet Go	D Van Dyke
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Mongolian Panther	G Franco

ALTERNATE 1	9-5	5	Over Attracted	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Soul Sweet	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #4 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 MONTANA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Montana	E A Maldonado
PLACE	5-2	3	Blue Cheese Olive	A Alsagoor
SHOW	4-1	5	Stella Boy	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Finally an Eddie	M Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Fordy G	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	R Heart of Gold	J Bravo

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #5 $63,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:46 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Leisurewear	A Alsagoor
PLACE	6-1	6	Unfaithful Ways	H I Berrios
SHOW	4-1	7	An Agent Mistake	M Gutierrez
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Shes a Joker	A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Hayley Levade	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	8	Annaghlasa	K Frey

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

RACE #6 $100,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Tahoe Sunrise	M E Smith
PLACE	4-1	1	One in Vermillion	H I Berrios
SHOW	8-5	4	Navy Man	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	7-5	2	Hard to Figure	A Cedillo

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Ag Bullet	J Bravo
PLACE	5-2	2	Teena Ella	E A Maldonado
SHOW	7-2	7	Fast and Shiny	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Procrastination	R Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Chismosa	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Toms Regret	K Frey

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #8 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 SAWASDEE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Sawasdee	A Alsagoor
PLACE	7-2	7	Mitico	J Valdivia Jr.
SHOW	8-1	5	Brutto	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Sonic Brees	E Payeras

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	8	Stir the Pot	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Winter Falcon	T J Pereira

* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

RACE #9 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	9	General Mathis	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	5-2	2	Yes This Time	J Bravo
SHOW	4-1	7	Vanzzy	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Crosby Beach	A Cedillo

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Dean Martini	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Flashiest	A Fresu

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX

RACE #10 $42,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Ole Silver	A Aguilar
PLACE	5-2	7	Taming the Tigress	J Bravo
SHOW	4-1	4	Harpers Gallop	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Sheza Girly Girl	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Charlotte Harbor	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Classical Romance	K Frey

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #11 $63,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Thorne House	A Cedillo
PLACE	5-1	8	King Apollo	K J Desormeaux
SHOW	8-1	9	Forgiving Spirit	A Alsagoor
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Cherubic Factor	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Smugglers Run	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Dancing Rinca	A Fresu

* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/9 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:37 AM

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - May 6

May. 05, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	7	Abundant	M Garcia
PLACE	7-2	1	Eternally Grateful	K J Asmussen
SHOW	9-2	5	Family Tradition	R Zimmerman
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Vying Edge	L S Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Topf Road Rules	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Immoral	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX

RACE #2 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:51 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 TOWN CHAMP

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Town Champ	J K Court
PLACE	3-1	9	Mos Mojo	M Garcia
SHOW	7-2	11	Full Impact	W De La Cruz
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Signofthecross	R Zimmerman

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Ribbons and Medals	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Released	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/11 BOX, 5/9/11 BOX

RACE #3 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	3	Als Romeo	W De La Cruz
PLACE	7-2	2	Midnight Taxes	M Murrill
SHOW	5-2	4	You Vee Cee	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Bettys Cash	L S Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	10	Eurobeliever	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Data Storm	K R Jordan

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $106,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:57 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	4	Eastside Cool	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	8-1	7	Tonka Warrior	E Gallardo
SHOW	6-1	9	Pats Property	W De La Cruz
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Rated R Superstar	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	5-2	1	Royal Act	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Presidential	K J Asmussen

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/9 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX

RACE #5 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	9	Runnin Block	I Castillo
PLACE	5-1	1	Rudiano	W De La Cruz
SHOW	7-2	2	Chicagos Gray	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Fridaynightsoldier	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Madmartigan	L S Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Huey Duey	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #6 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	13	Storm Approaching	C A Torres
PLACE	15-1	3	Pepperonikid	F Arrieta
SHOW	9-5	11	My Noah	C A Torres
WILD CARD	5-2	5	Ottoman Empire	K J Asmussen

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Shakedown Street	A Pusac
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Westheimer Street	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 13-3 BOX, 3-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/11/13 BOX, 3/5/11 BOX

RACE #7 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	2	Peace Dog	I Castillo
PLACE	5-2	6	Bohemian Bo	C A Torres
SHOW	15-1	9	Partyinthestreets	A Pusac
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Wheres Randy	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	4	Citrus Bay	E Gallardo
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	3	Table Money	W De La Cruz

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX

RACE #8 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	7	W W Scouts Honor	F Arrieta
PLACE	7-2	10	Lamutanaatty	K J Asmussen
SHOW	3-1	3	Shady Empire	C A Torres
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Ultimate	R Zimmerman

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	13	Trashtalkinyankee	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	9	American Outlaw	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/10 BOX, 3/6/10 BOX

RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-1	5	Skelly	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	6-1	1	Edge to Edge	F Arrieta
SHOW	8-1	6	Sir Wellington	E Gallardo
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Tuts Revenge	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Joe Frazier	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Walkers Win	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #10 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 NIGHT EFFECT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	11	Night Effect	M Garcia
PLACE	12-1	12	Golden Bandit	C A Torres
SHOW	12-1	7	Soybean Man	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Tahoe Run	E Gallardo

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	8	Auto Glide	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Tejas	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 11-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/11/12 BOX, 3/7/12 BOX

RACE #11 $200,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	7	King Peanut	F Arrieta
PLACE	4-1	11	Gar Hole	K J Asmussen
SHOW	15-1	6	Willow Creek Road	E Gallardo
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Mahomey	J K Court

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	14	Man in the Can	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Navy Seal	R Zimmerman

* EXACTA: 7-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/11 BOX, 4/6/11 BOX

RACE #12 $125,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 3/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 HELLORHIGHWATER

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1	Hellorhighwater	M Garcia
PLACE	9-2	10	Polterer	C A Torres
SHOW	2-1	3	Tiger Moon	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	30-1	4	Gold Buckle	W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	7	Mulberry Street	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	California Swing	E Gallardo

* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 3/4/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:37 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 6

May. 05, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 12:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Kara Para	E Cancel
PLACE	9-5	7	Red Hot Chick	K Carmouche
SHOW	4-1	12	Lem Me Drink	D Davis
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Oak Loves a Fight	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Bernt Again	G Huayas
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	10	Giggling Ghost	J A Davis

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/12 BOX, 7/8/12 BOX

RACE #2 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:56 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 LISTENTOYOURHEART

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	6	Listentoyourheart	K Davis
PLACE	9-5	4	Harrodsburg	J A Vargas Jr.
SHOW	8-1	3	Trash Talker	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Digital Future	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	2	American Law	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Battuta dOro	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:33 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	3	B C Glory Days	A Castillo
PLACE	5-2	1	Legendary Lore	T McCarthy
SHOW	8-5	6	In the Union	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Papi On Ice	O Hernandez Moreno

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Union Lights	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Hot Rod Lincoln	M Olver

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #4 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 ZEEBEAR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Zeebear	E Cancel
PLACE	2-1	2	Pineapple Man	K Carmouche
SHOW	6-1	1	Braciole	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Majestic Tiger	G Huayas

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Radio Red	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	5	Nineteen Oysters	H R Diaz Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #5 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	10-1	10	Captain Party	F Lynch
PLACE	1-1	2	Ortus	D Davis
SHOW	8-1	1	Lucky Lucky Luke	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Lt. Mitchell	E Cancel

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Battleoflexington	H R Diaz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	13	Bettrluckythangood	Rider TBA

* EXACTA: 10-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/10 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #6 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	5	Barese	D Davis
PLACE	9-2	3	Prince of Pharoahs	E Cancel
SHOW	8-5	1	Film Star	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	6	South Street	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	2	Vienna Code	G Huayas
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	7	Bezos	R R Maragh

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #7 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 SUBROGATE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	Subrogate	J Toledo
PLACE	8-1	5	Disappearance	K Carmouche
SHOW	4-1	6	Abadin	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Timaeus	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Vespucci	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Juan Valdez	E Cancel

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:19 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	3	Voodoo Zip	D Davis
PLACE	8-1	7	Ocala Dream	E Cancel
SHOW	10-1	8	Yes and Yes	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	9-5	1	Anaconda	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Thin White Duke	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Surprise Boss	N Juarez

* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX

RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:56 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	5	Rockemperor	D Davis
PLACE	1-2	9	Law Professor	Rider TBA
SHOW	5-2	6	City Man	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	6-1	2	King Cause	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Fort Washington	F Lynch
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Dynadrive	N Juarez

* EXACTA: 5-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX

RACE #10 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	6	Gerrymander	D Davis
PLACE	6-5	5	Kathleen O.	K Carmouche
SHOW	3-1	4	Idiomatic	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Timeless Journey	J A Vargas Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Mommasgottarun	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Pass the Champagne	F Lynch

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #11 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	11	One Headlight	D Davis
PLACE	4-1	14	Morethanafeeling	K Carmouche
SHOW	12-1	3	Dreampoint	H K Harkie
WILD CARD	7-2	10	Joint Resolution	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	Atlantas Acuna	N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Itsallcomintogetha	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 11-14 BOX, 14-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/11/14 BOX, 3/10/14 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:38 AM

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - May 6

May. 05, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 HANNITAS EMPIRE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Hannitas Empire	J C Ferrer
PLACE	8-5	2	Shall Return	S Camacho
SHOW	12-1	1	True Atka	J A Batista
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Csilla	L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	3	Imperial Moon	A Santos
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Drills Valentine	J Alicea

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #2 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 LORD OF THE NILE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1	Lord of the Nile	S Camacho
PLACE	6-1	8	Teas Dream	R D Allen Jr.
SHOW	4-1	3	The Point Road	A Quinonez
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Forever Saucy	M Jimenez

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	First Squad	J A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Seax	J C Ferrer

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX

RACE #3 $5,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:27 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Litigant	M Jimenez
PLACE	4-1	7	Last Promise	M Fuentes
SHOW	9-2	3	Lord Barna	J C Ferrer
WILD CARD	9-5	5	Prince Amadeus	J A Batista

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Holy Meister	J L Alonso
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	4	Gabbys Big Notion	M Martin

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #4 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Cool Front	S Camacho
PLACE	4-1	3	Striking Chrome	A Santos
SHOW	5-2	6	Serenade a Kitten	M Meneses
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Woods Hole	A A Marin

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	10	Lizz a Bee	R D Allen Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	12	Hardly Social	M Meneses

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #5 $8,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	6	Unified Ride	R D Allen Jr.
PLACE	6-1	8	Gleaming Brutality	J A Batista
SHOW	9-5	2	Divine Connection	S Camacho
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Muguruza	J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Mylastredcent	L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Witch of Love	J Alicea

* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX

RACE #6 $27,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-5	7	Roman Flame	M Meneses
PLACE	8-1	4	Risky Tizzy	A Quinonez
SHOW	5-1	3	Back Off Me	J E Lopez
WILD CARD	15-1	1	In the Know	J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Party Dream	R A Bracho
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Justdoitalready	L Sosa

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #7 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:59 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Cajun Cracker	K Mendez
PLACE	3-1	8	Raging Whirlwind	M Meneses
SHOW	8-1	4	Highjump Charlie	M Fuentes
WILD CARD	9-2	9	Hes Connected	L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Street Cop Officer	R A Bracho
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Kalinba	J L Alonso

* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX

RACE #8 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Tee At One	J A Batista
PLACE	5-2	7	Crafty King	J C Ferrer
SHOW	8-5	5	Summer Bee	S Camacho
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Awesome Honor	M Meneses

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Big Louie	M Fuentes
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Denying	R Mitchell

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #9 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Noble Fish	R E Mena
PLACE	2-1	2	Desert Ruler	S Camacho
SHOW	5-1	6	Lord Berrier	A A Marin
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Astronaut Oscar	A Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	King Cairo	J A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	The Big Calico	L Sosa

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #10 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:42 PM ET
BEST BET: #12 BORGOBYTHESEA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	12	Borgobythesea	A Quinonez
PLACE	3-1	7	Vintner	S Camacho
SHOW	8-1	6	Its Fate	M Fuentes
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Joyful Heart	A Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Fly Fly Away	L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Mista Donzella	R D Allen Jr.

* EXACTA: 12-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/12 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:38 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 6

May. 05, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET
BEST BET: #1 EXTRA ANEJO

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	1	Extra Anejo	T Gaffalione
PLACE	2-1	3	Federal Judge	F Prat
SHOW	15-1	2	Olazabal	G Corrales
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Deer District	J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	7	Backside Buzz	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Stud Lovin	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX

RACE #2 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:01 AM ET
BEST BET: #1 CAPE TRAFALGAR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Cape Trafalgar	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	3-1	8	Quality Chic	L Saez
SHOW	6-1	6	Quaternion	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Harbour Bridge	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	11	Shockwave	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	9	Chloes Dream	C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

RACE #3 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:31 AM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	King Ottoman	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	1	Bright Future	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	14	Petulante	L Saez
WILD CARD	12-1	2	Coastal Defense	C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Major Fed	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	11	Brigadier General	R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-14 BOX, 14-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/14 BOX, 1/2/14 BOX

RACE #4 $750,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:04 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $750,000 DERBY CITY DISTAFF GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	2	Goodnight Olive	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	5	Matareya	F Prat
SHOW	3-1	3	Wicked Halo	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Hot and Sultry	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Travel Column	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	My Destiny	R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 2,5/2,3,5
* TRIFECTA: 2/3,5/1,3,4,5,6
COMMENTS: GOODNIGHT OLIVE is a winning machine and most of the time the outcome was not close. MATAREYA finished in the money two of two at Churchill and three of three at the distance. WICKED HALO has a pair of wins and thirds at the distance which includes her career best speed number. HOT AND SULTRY showed more early pace in her last run but has been a cut below the top three.

RACE #5 $500,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:36 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 DISTAFF TURF MILE STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	5	Spendarella	T Gaffalione
PLACE	9-2	7	Fluffy Socks	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	3	Haughty	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Speak of the Devil	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Wakanaka	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	8	Freedom Speaks	J Graham

* EXACTA: 2,3,5,7 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,5,7 Box
COMMENTS: SPENDARELLA looks like the class of this race. The lone concern is that this is the longest stretch between races. FLUFFY SOCKS jockey and trainer duo of Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown win at a strong 44 percent together. HAUGHTY is less than a length away from winning five of her six starts and could get a trip to her liking here. SPEAK OF THE DEVIL might have the most potential in the group but might prefer for the track to something other than firm.

RACE #6 $175,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $175,000 KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Baby Yoda	J Castellano
PLACE	5-2	6	Zozos	F Geroux
SHOW	6-1	2	Masqueparade	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	11	Kupuna	R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	12	Caddo River	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Promise Keeper	L Saez

* EXACTA: 3,6/2,3,6,8,11,12
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,6/2,3,6/2,3,6,8,11,12
COMMENTS: BABY YODA is a versatile horse that has shown he can keep up with early speed of come from off the pace to win. ZOZOS is usually well backed by horseplayers and should make a lot of noise down the stretch. MASQUEPARADE will be extremely dangerous if he gets off to a good start and competes early. KUPUNA is making his third start after a layoff with a bullet workout in his last before this start.

RACE #7 $500,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:56 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 TURF SPRINT GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	10	Arrest Me Red	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	7	Nothing Better	M Franco
SHOW	8-1	11	Motorious	F Prat
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Big Invasion	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Evan Sing	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Go Bears Go	J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 4,7,10,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 7,10,11/3,4,7,10,11/2,3,4,7,10,11
COMMENTS: ARREST ME RED has three wins and two thirds in five at the distance and should be sharp today. NOTHING BETTER looks to be in top form with bullets galore on the training track and a wire to wire win in his last. MOTORIOUS finished no worse than third in his six races since coming from England. BIG INVASION handled almost all of the horses he has faced to date but steps up here.

RACE #8 $500,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 PAT DAY MILE GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	1	Kangaroo Court	J R Velazquez
PLACE	5-1	12	Gun Pilot	T Gaffalione
SHOW	7-2	5	Echo Again	F Geroux
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Fort Bragg	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	9	General Jim	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	50-1	14	Freezing Point	C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 1,12/1,5,7,9,12,14
* TRIFECTA: 1,12/1,2,5,7/1,5,7,9,12,14
COMMENTS: KANGAROO COURT ran better fractions at 6 and half furlongs in his last than he did at 6 furlongs in the prior start. GUN PILOT missed as the favorite in his last. Trainer Steve Asmussen rebounds at 24 percent the next time out. ECHO AGAIN could make easy work of this field if he can turn back to his debut. FORT BRAGG might be the most consistent performer in the race and might be poised to improve today.

RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 AMERICAN TURF STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	11	Carl Spackler	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	1	Major Dude	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	7-2	2	Far Bridge	J Rosario
WILD CARD	12-1	12	Funtastic Again	G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Mo Stash	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Johannes	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 1,2,5,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,11/1,2,11/1,2,5,11,12
COMMENTS: CARL SPACKLER and MAJOR DUDE both ran speed figures above 100 in their last races. They are the only two that have reached triple digits in this race. CARL SPACKLER is the more lightly raced horse which means he could have more upside. FAR BRIDGE is also lightly raced with just two races and might have more than he has shown to date. JOHANNES steps up the class level here but his performances on grass and pedigree numbers fit with the top contenders at a much better price.

RACE #10 $750,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $750,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	7	Codys Wish	J Alvarado
PLACE	10-1	2	C Z Rocket	F Prat
SHOW	5-1	10	Endorsed	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	1	White Abarrio	P Lopez

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	4	Hoist the Gold	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	11	Steal Sunshine	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 7/1,2,10
* TRIFECTA: 7/1,2,10/1,2,4,10,11
COMMENTS: CODYS WISH is undefeated in four at Churchill Downs. CZ ROCKET appears to be a horse for the course with four wins in nine starts including his career best effort. ENDORSED ran better fractions in his last race. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione stays here instead of riding the next pick WHITE ABARRIO who made easy work of the field in his first try at todays distance.

RACE #11 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:27 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $1M TURF CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	9	Spooky Channel	J Rosario
PLACE	9-2	8	Santin	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	5	Up to the Mark	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Steady On	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Wolfies Dynaghost	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	7	Hong Kong Harry	F Prat

* EXACTA: 4,5,8,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,5,7,8,9/8,9/3,4,7,8,9
COMMENTS: This might be the most competitive race on the card. SPOOKY CHANNEL won 13 of 28 races on turf. SANTIN stumbled badly at the start of his last race and could be overlooked by horseplayers due to the poor finish. UP TO THE MARK appears to be getting more fit as he has increased his late pace in the last three outings. STEADY ON showed more early enthusiasm in his last race which can be an indication of good outing in the next start.

RACE #12 $3,000,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:57 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $3M KENTUCKY DERBY GI

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	15	Forte	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	10-1	10	Practical Move	R A Vazquez
SHOW	30-1	1	Hit Show	M Franco
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Kingsbarns	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	14	Angel of Empire	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Tapit Trice	L Saez

* EXACTA: 1,6,10,15 Box
* TRIFECTA: 10,15/1,6,10,15/1,5,6,10,14,15
COMMENTS: FORTE is the has not done anything wrong horse and will likely put in another good race in the third off the bench. PRACTICAL MOVE got off to a sluggish start and still won the Santa Anita Derby. His works say he get off to a better start here. HIT SHOW has increased his speed figure in four straight. KINGSBARN is unbeaten in three starts and none have been close.

RACE #13 $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Equivoque	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	10	Shoppers Revenge	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	6	Promise Me a Ride	F Geroux
WILD CARD	10-1	5	B Minor	B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	Let It Ride	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Bo Cruz	J Rosario

* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX

RACE #14 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Everso Mischievous	F Geroux
PLACE	4-1	9	Mullikin	F Prat
SHOW	6-1	16	Le Bar	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	7-2	14	Dillinger	J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	13	Simovic	C A Emigh
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	1	Macho Villa	M Franco

* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-16 BOX, 16-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/16 BOX, 9/14/16 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2023, 06:39 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - May 6

May. 04, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [Alw 95000 N1X, 6