Monday 5/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:14 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 8, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 starting in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and a $2,641 carryover. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 6, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Twin B Heart Throb (8/5)-Ships in off an even effort at Philly and likes to finish 2nd as his YR record indicates (11-2-6-0). Won't offer any value, but is difficult to leave off the ticket from the rail against this group.
5-Macheasy A (6-1)-Tossing last when was 10 lengths behind after the start and caught a rough trip behind stalled cover. Gets a positive driver change in Kakaley which makes this one appealing as does the price. Looking for a better start and should compete at this level.

Race 7

2-Semi Tough (7/2)-This Burke trainee is in fine form and has a shot to make it 3 straight wins. Steps up but knows how to beat this kind. Brennan could land in a good seat and be there at the wire.
5-Splash Brothers (6-1)-Gets a new pilot in Zeron and should offer a nice price. This seems like a simple game plan, have the pedal down and look to land on the point. Not much gate speed inside and could be tough to catch if gets the top and can steal a quarter.

Race 8

3-Moonshine Kisses (3/1)-Comes off an Open Handicap win at Stga from post 6, ships in and lands in a nice spot to take a picture. From this post Brennan could blast out, get the top and not look back.
5-Funatthebeach N (7/2)-Didn't connect in the Borgata Final and there were reasons, but this is a different situation. Has been rested, could come back here and post a win. This race should have a lively pace and Stratton knows how to stalk and roll by down the lane.

Race 9

3-Jojo's Place (3-1)-Drops after getting a rough trip versus 40k claimers and could get the point off the gate. Has won at this level and versus better. Should be controlling the mile off the gate or sitting behind #1-Pedro Hanover who has trouble sealing the deal. Either trip can work as long it is clear sailing coming out of the pocket.
7-Change Stride N (6-1)-This will be the 1st start for the Daguet barn after a claim. Comes back versus the same kind and the post make the price. Stratton will be steering on this closer who will be looking for the 3rd straight picture. Paced the back half in 55.2 last time and could be helped by some fast fractions tonight.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,5/2,5/3,5/3,7
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:14 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#1 Regal Rey	The two-back run would be competitive here if he's able to bounce back off a dull try in a good race at Keeneland, and the winner that day was back to run a good second behind what I think might be a potential future star at Churchill Saturday.
#3 Magic City	Get a look at him on the tote and track, but he obviously makes a lot of sense on paper for a team that excels with most kinds in a debut spot where he's not meeting much on paper. That said, they're about 20% with these types locally with a negative ROI, so I probably wouldn't want to be here at too short a price either way.
#2 Fast Forward	Think he has a little appeal in what feels like a soft race, as his only two dirt races came on better circuits than here, and maybe he'll get back to his very best today at a decent price.
Race Summary	Regal Rey didn't bring his best stuff last time out, but he looks like a good fit in this spot and comes out of a race that feels much, much deeper than what he's about to find today.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5

#6 Midnight Meghan	Think she has a claim on this over either footing with some rain in the forecast, as she's dropping in to the lowest spot she has seen, and she might appreciate working with a bit more ground today.
#8 Courting War	She has had 13 chances and is getting short on excuses, and I also have some worry that she's better on the synthetic in Florence than she is here. Recent form fits, but I have some hesitation.
#1 Little Gray Flower	She hasn't shown much in three statebred starts on the main track, but she's back in claiming company off the bench while moving to the turf for the first time, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her make some noise at a decent price. Would give her a look on the main, too.
Race Summary	Midnight Meghan has some room to improve today while dropping in class again today, and I think a couple of the other logical players have some questions to answer on form or footing.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #8

#3 Spotonjustice	Think there's a chance he lands this at a mid-range price while making his second start off the break, and I liked the way he stuck around after setting the tempo off the bench. He'll meet some other forward players in here, but I think he might be best of the speed if he's tighter with that race under his belt.
#6 Sudden Shift	He has been knocking on the door with similar for some time, finishing second in five consecutive races including his comeback. Tactical speed should have the top choice in his sights throughout, and like that, he has some upside in this second start back.
#10 Wire the Cash	He ran some good sprint races here last fall before the form tailed off a bit in some good route spots, and he's a late threat to grab this one. Capable player, but I wouldn't want a short kind of price.
Race Summary	Can't imagine Spotonjustice is offering anything near the 20/1 ML price after a really useful comeback run at even money, but I think he's in the mix here at something hopefully in the mid-single digits.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:15 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7

#7 HAPPY ROMANCE (3-1)	Steady check-getter, projects ideal trip, has run well off similar rest.
#3 THOUGHT (2-1)	Consider this: 3 wins and a near miss in his last 5 starts on dirt at various venues.
#4 RACE DAY REBAL (8-1)	Sat good 3-wide trip, couldn’t match strides with ‘Happy’ in stretch.
Race Summary	HAPPY ROMANCE stands 10/2-2-2, spanning several tracks, since he was gelded last August. He should sit an ideal stalking trip from the outside as he looks for a repeat victory at one mile. Bet to win and place.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8

#7 HANNAH FO FANNAH (4-1)	Gets class relief, should be forwardly placed a long way.
#3 SECRET PASS (5-2)	Swung 4-wide turning for home, finished second at this level, adds blinkers.
#6 PASSION FOR SAND (7-2)	Big middle move from post 11, flattened out, plagued by slow starts.
Race Summary	HANNAH FO FANNAH pressed the pace 4-wide before the odds-on favorite passed by the field at 6F last out. She faded chasing a fast pace two starts back and chased the 1-to-5 favorite around the track in the race prior. She can make good use of her speed on the class drop, so make her today’s Best Bet.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#4 DOUDOUDOUWANADANCE (8-5)	Seeks return to 2-year-old form in $55k Cinema Stakes.
#3 LITTLE RIVER JEWEL (15-1)	Swept 4-wide on turn in win; dam was 3-3 and stakes winner sprinting.
#9 I’M THE BIGGER BEAR (	Re-rallied, gained inside of 3-to-5 winner in stretch, held second.
Race Summary	DOUDOUDOUWANADANCE, overmatched in a G-III stakes at Oaklawn in her seasonal debut, gets back with her own kind in her first appearance at Will Rogers. She won her first three starts against Oklahoma breds by a combined 18-1/4 lengths and gets back on Lasix at a proven distance. Play 4-3 and 4-9 exactas and a 4-3-ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 4	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 4-5) * PICK 5 WITH CARRYOVER (50 Cent Minimum: Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $11,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $17,200 • Post: 2:42P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * AKELA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. PRETTY MISS KEENS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SWEET SUGAR BABY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating. MIDMON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	AKELA	4/1	9/2
2	PRETTY MISS KEENS	3/1	5/1
9	SWEET SUGAR BABY	9/2	7/1
7	MIDMON	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PRETTY MISS KEENS	2	3/1	Front-runner	69	54	81.0	38.0	33.5
1	AKELA	1	4/1	Front-runner	56	65	69.6	39.2	31.2
8	MOOLAH ROUGE	8	12/1	Stalker	39	33	40.2	23.4	6.4
5	BOO BA LA	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	53	61.6	46.8	37.3
9	SWEET SUGAR BABY	9	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	68	43	44.2	44.2	37.7
3	AUTOMATED TELLER	3	15/1	Trailer	52	44	44.8	41.4	29.4
4	SWEET SENSATION	4	6/1	Trailer	71	46	6.2	39.4	34.4
7	MIDMON	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	61	53	32.6	50.2	38.7
6	ALBANY YATES	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	46	25.2	37.4	23.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 8	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 3:53P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON ONE PA-RESTRICTED RACE(S) OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) IF RACE SHOULD RUN WITH FIVE (5) OR LESS STARTERS - THE PURSE WILL BE REDUCED BY $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FOR THE DREAMERS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FOR THE DREAMERS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROYA L KING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MR SANDMAN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average win ning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	FOR THE DREAMERS	7/2	3/1
1	ROYAL KING	9/2	9/2
4	MR SANDMAN	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CAPTAIN CHAZZ	5	6/1	Front-runner	86	78	80.6	72.2	63.2
2	FOR THE DREAMERS	2	7/2	Stalker	88	89	88.4	85.8	82.8
4	MR SANDMAN	4	6/1	Stalker	86	81	80.2	74.4	66.4
7	MITROPANOS	7	6/1	Stalker	78	70	68.9	66.2	54.2
1	ROYAL KING	1	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	85	91	79.9	81.4	75.9
8	DANCE CODE	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	84	56.2	75.0	69.0
3	TALENTED MAN	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	83	77.4	66.6	53.6
6	SPIRIT'S HERO	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	59	64.2	53.6	38.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 48

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SUFFICE 7/5
# 1 FRAGRANT 6/5
# 3 LUNA MIA 12/1

SUFFICE looks decent to best this field. This lot is much less demanding than the last one she was up against. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class numbers of this group. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent speed figs with an average of 72. FRAGRANT - Sound average Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races make this racer a key contender. Could best this field based on the speed rating - 55 - of her last effort. LUNA MIA - Very good chance today with second time Lasix. Looks very good to be on or close to the front end at the first call.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:17 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 2:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#1 SUMMER IS HOT (ML=4/1)
#5 MOODY RAFAELA (ML=3/1)

SUMMER IS HOT - I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always in the top three. This should be an easier task than what she was asked last time out against 'open' company. Another way to determine class is (EPS) earnings per start. This horse has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish line. MOODY RAFAELA - This mare should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last affair on February 28th. Just view her recent rating, 60. That one fits well in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MAGGIE'S RETURN (ML=2/1), #4 ALEXAPLAYBORNTORUN (ML=7/2), #3 CUSTOM GUITAR (ML=8/1),

MAGGIE'S RETURN - Hasn't raced or had any workouts since February 9th. Not much value on this favorite. Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint affairs in order to play her. ALEXAPLAYBORNTORUN - No favorable outcomes for this entrant in a sprint event over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a formidable circumstance CUSTOM GUITAR - Tough to put any dough on this filly on the front end. Likes to hit the board though.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 SUMMER IS HOT on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $7,500, ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 EUTYCHIA 1/1
# 4 MISS M J 2/1
# 3 KIMBELL'S STRATEGY 3/1

EUTYCHIA is my choice. Strong average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt route races make this equine a definite contender. This mare has to be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt route races alone. She ought to be considered given the formidable speed figures. MISS M J - Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this contest. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this group in her last contest. KIMBELL'S STRATEGY - Seems to have a very strong class edge based on the recent company kept. Has been travelling strongly in races of this distance, going 5 out of 13 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-08-2023, 05:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#4 FRONTLINER (ML=8/1)
#7 LAUDA SPEED (ML=10/1)
#1 TOE TAPPIN LUKE (ML=9/2)
#8 FAHRENHEIT (ML=15/1)
#9 TRIGZ TOO (ML=4/1)

FRONTLINER - When a racer finishes in the money as often as this gelding does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. The ROI when Salazarbecerra and Johnson partner up is fantastic. LAUDA SPEED - Ranks at the top in earnings per race entered. A solid try in this race will add to the lifetime earnings. TOE TAPPIN LUKE - Aboard this animal on March 30th and Batista is yet again in the irons in today's contest. FAHRENHEIT - Just missed hitting the board on March 23rd at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. With respectable morning line odds in this event, he has my interest. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Trevino. Better beware of this angle. Getting a weight break of 5 lbs from last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour on Mar 23rd. This could make a difference in this event. TRIGZ TOO - I have to like this gelding's winning probability at the shorter trip. This gelding earned a strong figure of 93 in his last contest. That speed figure should be good enough to triumph this time around. Recent Equibase speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FLIPPING FISH (ML=7/2), #3 SHADOW TRACER (ML=5/1), #5 GEHRIG (ML=6/1),

FLIPPING FISH - This less than sharp equine hasn't been on the track since April 15th. Not even any works. SHADOW TRACER - Not easy to support any runner in a short distance clash if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. Difficult to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the chance. GEHRIG - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this affair compromises this horse's dreams at winning. This was a fit horse, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to watch your step with this weaker runner. When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to record a much better speed rating than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - FAHRENHEIT - One can infer, given he finished out of the money at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last out, that this horse did not like the off track. I expect an improvement with better footing today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 FRONTLINER is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4,7] with [1,4,7,8,9] with [1,4,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,7] with [1,4,7] with [1,4,7,8,9] with [1,4,7,8,9] Total Cost: $24