Service Plays Monday 5/8/23

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Griffin Murphy

6* White Sox -135
2* Pirates -175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARCO D'ANGELO

3% MLB PLAY
Game: (919) Houston Astros at (920) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: May 8 2023 9:38 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros -120 H Brown (RHP), P Sandoval (LHP) Must Start

3% (919) HOUSTON -125


2% MLB 2 TEAM ML PARLAY
Game: (907) Miami Marlins at (908) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: May 8 2023 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: (908) ARIZONA -200 ML and (910) SAN FRANCISCO -220 ML

2% MLB 2 TEAM MONEY LINE PARLAY




(908) ARIZONA -200 ML and (910) SAN FRANCISCO -220 ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

Hoops 250 Knicks

BASEBALL 250 Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Power

For your convenience, here are your selection(s):
Date Expert Rating Game Play
May 8 Bryan Power 3% [MLB] (901) Colorado Rockies at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates

Time: 6:35 PM EDT Pittsburgh Pirates -166 K Freeland (LHP), M Keller (RHP) Must Start
Analysis:
3% Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): The Pirates were one of baseball’s best surprises in the month of April, racing out to the division lead in the NL Central on the back of their rotation, which turned in the most quality starts in all of MLB. But, here in May, it could be said that “Cinderella has turned into a pumpkin” as the Bucs have now lost seven in a row while being outscored by five runs per game. However, it should be pointed out that they just got done facing the Rays and Blue Jays, two of baseball’s better teams (Rays being THE best). It’s a drop in class to start this week when the Rockies come to town.

These teams met last month at Coors Field and the Pirates broke out the broom for a three-game sweep, outscoring the Rockies 33-9. It won’t be the same hitter-friendly environment here, but I do expect Pittsburgh to get the bats going against Kyle Freeland, who allowed NINE runs in just 2 ⅔ innings in that previous series. Freeland has generally struggled against the Pirates in his career (5.12 ERA in eight career starts) including a 6.50 ERA here at PNC Park. He’s also allowed a total of seven home runs in his last five starts, so this is just “what the doctor ordered” for the scuffling Pirates lineup.

Of course, history tells us that Colorado is also a much worse team when they are on the road. They did just take two of three from the Mets at Citi Field and have won five of six overall. But still the team averages only 3.7 rpg away from home this season and will be up against Mitch Keller, who is the one Pirates’ starter I still have confidence in right now. Keller had turned in five consecutive quality starts before getting charged with four unearned runs against the Rays last time out. He has a 0.63 ERA in three previous appearances vs. the Rockies. The Pirates have handled their business as a favorite this season (8-1) including a perfect 4-0 at home in the -125 to -175 range. 3% Pittsburgh (Play to -200)

Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
May 8 Bryan Power 4% [NBA] (541) New York Knicks at (542) Miami Heat

Time: 7:30 PM EDT New York Knicks +4.5 (-110)
Analysis:
4% New York (7:30 ET): Game 3 was another low-scoring affair between New York and Miami. Jimmy Butler returned for the Heat, who won comfortably (105-86) despite shooting 38.9% overall from the field including 7 of 32 (21.9%) from three. The Knicks were even worse, shooting 34.1% overall and 8 of 40 (20%) from three. NY never led and was uncharacteristically dominated down low. But history suggests the road team will bounce back in this spot as they are a perfect 8-0 straight up (and 7-0-1 ATS) this season following a game in which they failed to score 100 points. I’m taking the points in this one.

The Knicks’ three-point shooting has run hot and cold in this series. In the two losses, they were a horrific 15 of 74 from behind the arc (just over 20%) while they made 16 of 40 (40%) in their Game 2 victory. Game 3 saw Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett go a combined 2 for 17 from three, not to mention 16 of 51 (31.3%) overall. You’ve got to expect we’ll see improvement across the board from the Knicks’ superstar trio, who combined to average 68.7 PPG in the regular season (and 58.6 in the postseason). Improvement from them will offset the possible absence of 6th man Immanuel Quickley.

Butler has scored 25+ points each of the last nine games he’s played, but the Heat are missing both Tyler Herro and Victor Oladpio and I am quite frankly astounded at this team’s playoff run. They are the only team that made the playoffs (or the play-in round for that matter) that had a negative point differential in the regular season. Miami has now covered six in a row overall, but five of those were as a dog (last game being the exception). They are just 21-37 ATS as a favorite this season. Considering the above trend for the Knicks (when off game scoring < 100 pts), taking the points (in what could be another low-scoring game) is clearly the way to go tonight. 4% New York (Play to Pick ‘em)

Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
May 8 Bryan Power 4% [MLB] (919) Houston Astros at (920) Los Angeles Angels

Time: 9:38 PM EDT Houston Astros -122 H Brown (RHP), P Sandoval (LHP) Must Start
Analysis:
4% Houston (9:38 ET): The AL West (save for Oakland) is super competitive this year with everyone staring up at the surprising Rangers at the moment. Both Houston and the LA Angels come into Monday’s series opener having lost two in a row after winning the opener of their respective last series. The Astros faced the Mariners while the Angels faced the Rangers and we’re “keeping it in the division” here, a rivalry that (not surprisingly) the ‘Stros have dominated through the years, winning 26 of 38 since the start of 2021 including 13-6 last year. I like the road team to win Monday.

The Astros’ lineup has been without some key pieces so far this season, which helps explain why they’ve lost three straight series. But Monday is a favorable matchup for them against Patrick Sandoval and a tired Angels’ bullpen. First off, despite the injuries, Houston is still putting up 4.7 runs per game on the road. Sandoval is 0-4 with an 8.03 ERA against them in his career and if he’s knocked out early tonight, that could mean even more trouble for the home team whose bullpen worked five innings yesterday. The last two days saw the Halos’ staff give up a total of 26 runs, so they are really struggling on the mound right now.

For the season, the Angels are giving up 6.1 runs per game at home, which is bottom five in all of baseball. The offense has scored 5.9 rpg here, but obviously that’s not enough and tonight they have to deal with Hunter Brown, who has a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in three road starts. The Astros are allowing just 3.5 rpg when on the road. Three times this season, Brown has gone seven innings without allowing a run and all three times were against the current AL division leaders (Tampa Bay, Texas & Minnesota). Saturday was a shocking loss for the Astros (allowed 7 runs in the 8th inning) and Sunday’s loss was decided on an error and a balk. 4% Houston (Play to -150)

Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michael’s
For your convenience, here are your selection(s):
Date Expert Rating Game Play
May 8 Ralph Michaels 5% [MLB] (907) Miami Marlins at (908) Arizona Diamondbacks

Time: 9:40 PM EDT 1H Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 (-148) Z Gallen (RHP) Must Start
Analysis:
5% FIRST FIVE Arizona w/ Gallen -1/2 run -148 Miami w/ Garrett

Teams were on the opposite end of wild finishes with Miami snapping a 5-game, losing streak as they blew a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th, both teams scored in the 10th and in the 13th and then they won in the 14th thanks to a balk. On the flip side Arizona led 8-5 after 7 innings allowing 1 run in the 8th and 3 in the 9th. Gallen has been a stud as he didn’t allow an earned run in 4 straight starts before allowing 3 runs in 5 innings at Texas his last time out. I expect him to rebound off that start and come up big after the bullpen let them down on Sunday. Garret has thrown only 3 innings and 4 2/3 his L2 starts.

Diamondbacks are 7-1 at Home as a pick/fav with the avg win 5.3 to 2.1



SYSTEM Dogs off an extra-inning game in which they used 3+ pitchers in game #1 of a series with no rest are 158-337 (31.9%)!

Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Analytics 24/7
NBA

Knicks +4.5* (7:30)

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MLB

Guardians/Tigers F5 U4 (6:00)

Athletics/Yankees F5 U4.5 (7:00)

Astros/Angels F5 O4.5 (9:30)

Mariners F5 -.5 (9:30)

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Dave Cokin

MLB

2% Devil Rays/Diamondbacks ML Parlay

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Vernon Croy

4* Vegas Over 6.5 -140
4* Lakers -3

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Tony George

7* Vegas Over 6.5 -135