Thursday 5/11/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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1/ST BET AI Picks: Pimlico Opening Day | Thursday

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May 10, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Thursday is opening day of the 2023 racing season at Pimlico. First post on the 8-race card is set for 12:25 pm ET.

To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.

Race 1
#10 Landon Jack (23%)

Race 2
#1 I Am the Mike (31%)

Race 3
#8 Beckon (25%)

Race 4
#2 Sir Smoak (27%)

Race 5
#8 Classic Colors (22%)

Race 6
#4 Dancer’s Melody (25%)

Race 7
#3 Ladneedsahandler (26%)

Race 8
#1 Majestic Frontier (28%)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Hawthorne - Race #4

#1 Wolf Hunter	He ran into some better company this winter than he is going to find in this local spot, and I am at least a little encouraged by the fact that he's not right back in for a tag after the really flat run last out. Think his best keeps him there.
#8 Easy Fast	He goes first out for a team that does okay with these kinds, and he gets a good draw to watch things unfold in the early going. As always, get a look on the track and tote, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him land this.
#2 Rejection Hurts	He's another going first out for a capable team, and he has a pedigree that tilts a bit toward winning early. Might be ready to roll in a race that might not be the deepest for the level locally.
Race Summary	Wolf Hunter is getting short on excuses, but he's capable of something better than his last, and he ran a few races this winter that might be good enough to keep him in the frame with this group.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#3 Soul Coaxing	Think he's going to take a little bit of cash, but he's a really good fit here off a couple claiming tries in New Orleans at levels that can come up tough sometimes. Spy and pounce trip lands this?
#4 Gita's Lad	Wouldn't argue with anyone landing with this in-form riser, and he gets a lot more dangerous on the engine if the guy drawn just outside of him doesn't press him in the early going. Chance.
#1 Baba's Boy	Let's see if he can bring his best stuff going long off the bench, as he ran well fresh last year and has done some of the better work on his page going two turns. Might be able to grab a piece of this if he saves ground and rallies late.
Race Summary	Soul Coaxing is appealing here if he goes off as something like the second choice or potential co-favorite, as his winter races stack up well here if he can bring similar form today.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#8 Lady Kalina	Her one-turn tries have all been really solid, and she proved a good fit at this level when second behind a runaway winner last out. She has shown a little versatility in her running style through four starts, and she draws well to find a good spying spot.
#6 Sally's Suprise	She drops off that first run against special weight company, but she didn't do a whole lot that day at the tail of the field. Some reasonable second-out improvement against this softer bunch might be enough to keep her in the mix.
#2 Pacific View	She didn't show anything in the special weight debut at Oaklawn, but she's getting Lasix for this second start while dropping in with maiden claimers on a softer circuit and could wake up pretty fast today.
Race Summary	The only blemish on Lady Kalina's record is her one route try, so I'm willing to take her last one at face value when she finished second at this level. Think she'll be a bit more tactical today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#1 UPSTREET (3-1)	Has speed and rail and good recent form, can return quick claim dividend.
#6 STUCK IN MALIBU (2-1)	Upstaged in-money finishes with win in race dominated by deep closers.
#3 MAJOR PRYCE (9-5)	Bid inside of winner in mid-stretch but flatted out at distance two back.
Race Summary	UPSTREET is in peak form and can make good use of her speed from the rail for her new barn. She pressed the pace in the 4-path last out, led mid-turn and held second to the rallying winner. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#6 SPEEDY HANS (7-2)	Overtaken by G-II stakes winner in latest, prior two route races were strong.
#1 PARKLAND (9-2)	First or second in 9 of 18 starts going long on various surfaces.
#4 ONENIGHTSTANDARDS (2-1)	Notched first main-track victory in 1-1/2-mile marathon last out.
Race Summary	SPEEDY HANS is 0-8 at Gulfstream and was the beaten favorite in his only start this year in February. But he bid to a brief lead at the top of the stretch while 5-wide before Therapist (12-39, $970k) passed by. Therapist won the G-II Pan American Stakes in his next start. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#1 NIC’S BRO (3-1)	Rallied for pair of seconds recently under the same conditions.
#6 ROLLING ON (5-1)	Earned top speed fig but ran evenly in lane in first start as gelding and with Lasix.
#4 ADIOS GARY (12-1)	Had trouble lines in last two turf sprints, price attached.
Race Summary	NIC’S BRO couldn’t reach the 9-1 pace setter and was out-kicked by a 4-1 deep closer when he finished second in his prior two turf sprints. There’s plenty of speed to his outside and he should be heard from again with a clean trip from the rail. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.10 Superfecta
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 39 • Purse: $33,900 • Post: 1:20P
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SALUTE THE KID is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SALUTE THE KID: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TITEBLUE JEANS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MERE BAG OF SHELLS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	SALUTE THE KID	4/1	5/2
6	TITEBLUEJEANS	5/2	9/2
2	MERE BAG OF SHELLS	9/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MERE BAG OF SHELLS	2	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	43	34	37.0	28.2	23.2
3	SALUTE THE KID	3	4/1	Stalker	53	35	58.1	33.2	28.7
6	TITEBLUEJEANS	6	5/2	Stalker	36	32	23.0	30.6	23.6
4	WAY OF THE WORLD	4	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	37	26	30.3	24.6	15.6
7	SHESANOTHERSONG	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	33.6	9.6	0.6
1	MISS MARY JEAN	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	23.4	15.3	5.8
9	CABARET FLEUR	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	29	7	20.5	12.3	0.0
5	GHOSTLY REVIVAL	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	19	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: BEAUTIFULLBLACKSKY (15/1) [Jockey: Yaranga Yuri - Trainer: Vazquez Ivan].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 4	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 4-5)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 4-6) Pick 5 (Races 4-8)(.50 min)
Claiming $7,500 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 7:25P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * IMA JETTIN PATRIOT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ONE FAMOUS GAME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HOSA NNA HOSANNA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. FLAME OF THE YUKON: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ONE FAST B: Horse's average winning distance is within half a fur long of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
8	IMA JETTIN PATRIOT	4/1	6/1
1	ONE FAMOUS GAME	12/1	6/1
9	HOSANNA HOSANNA	3/1	6/1
3	FLAME OF THE YUKON	5/1	8/1
5	ONE FAST B	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ONE FAMOUS GAME	1	12/1	Average	65	66	5.5	0.0	0.0
2	JRS MARTINI TEE	2	12/1	Slow	65	52	6.1	0.0	0.0
3	FLAME OF THE YUKON	3	5/1	Average	66	60	5.9	0.0	0.0
4	HEZA RIGHTEOUS MAN	4	8/1	Slow	56	51	6.7	0.0	0.0
5	ONE FAST B	5	8/1	Average	69	63	5.7	0.0	0.0
6	RB DIVERSIFY	6	10/1	Slow	64	59	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	NIPSEY	7	15/1	Slow	63	49	7.7	0.0	0.0
8	IMA JETTIN PATRIOT	8	4/1	Slow	65	71	8.1	0.0	0.0
9	HOSANNA HOSANNA	9	3/1	Average	70	61	4.3	0.0	0.0
10	TTT IVAN MOONWALKER	10	8/1	Average	59	53	4.9	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - Post: 8:13pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#9 EASY RUNNER (ML=7/2)
#8 PESO PESADO (ML=5/1)


EASY RUNNER - Dominguez rode this horse for the first time last race out and comes right back in today's contest. Entered an Allowance race at Evangeline Downs last time out and raced on an off track finishing fourth. Have to do better in this race. PESO PESADO - McMahon rode this racer for the initial time last race out and comes right back today. This gelding is in exceptional condition right now. Finished first last time around the track and comes back rapidly. I took a look at this gelding's finishes. He's almost always on the board. This gelding's last speed figure is strong enough to prove victorious here, I'll wager on him back again this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HOLY BAYOU (ML=5/2), #2 WIN WON DOBBS (ML=4/1), #6 LUCAS ZIP IT (ML=8/1),

HOLY BAYOU - Hasn't been on the Evangeline Downs oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. WIN WON DOBBS - On a downward spiraling cycle. Speed ratings keep deteriorating. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's event. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. LUCAS ZIP IT - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint races in order to support him. Will not be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PESO PESADO - This mount should be your wagering choice today. This gelding has posted improving speed figures in his last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 EASY RUNNER to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29400 Class Rating: 64

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ZIGGY STARDUST 8/5
# 7 LOVETHEBAND 4/1
# 6 TURTLE DOVE 5/1

ZIGGY STARDUST has a very strong shot to take this race. Has very good Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Recently Contreras has provided risk takers with a solid winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Contreras has him trained soundly to break swiftly out of the gate. LOVETHEBAND - He has been running soundly lately while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the affair. TURTLE DOVE - Should definitely be given consideration in this contest if only for the solid Equibase Speed Fig garnered in the last contest. No strangers to the winner's circle, Jones and Mendez should have this gelding breaking away from the field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 59

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 HURACANADA 2/1
# 1 IRMA MARIA 5/2
# 2 FANTOSMIA 3/1

I've got to go with HURACANADA. Has to be used in the exotic bets. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group of animals. With Diaz getting the mount, watch out for this animal. IRMA MARIA - The speed figure of 51 from her most recent race looks respectable in here. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a solid choice. FANTOSMIA - She has a good opportunity for this event as handler, Henriquez, has sharp win clip with horses going this distance. Her earnings per start in dirt route races alone makes you take a look at her.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:57pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,500 Class Rating: 52

Rating:

#9 RAY OF LIGHT (ML=8/1)


RAY OF LIGHT - Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Penn National. Entered a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race at Penn National in the last race and raced on a sloppy track finishing sixth. Expect better right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FIERCE AND STRONG (ML=5/2), #8 OUR RONNY ALAN (ML=3/1), #5 GURT'S WARRIOR (ML=4/1),

FIERCE AND STRONG - A pattern of dropping speed figs 58/50/18 for this racer. OUR RONNY ALAN - Tough for anyone who saw this racer in his last clash to play him this time out. GURT'S WARRIOR - If he goes off close to the morning line of 4/1, I'll have to pass.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 RAY OF LIGHT to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 11

May. 10, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	6	Callin My Name	J Loveberry
PLACE	5-2	5	Frosty the Giant	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	3	Patch OBrien	L Saez
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Innocent Man	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	Imperial Thunder	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Dunphy	J Graham
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
RACE #2 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 4 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Musical Diva	F Geroux
PLACE	4-1	9	Krickle	C J Hernandez
SHOW	6-1	6	Too Fast for You	L Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Closing Act	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Girls Weekend	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	April Clover	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX
RACE #3 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Tell Me When	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	6	Frigid Lady	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	5	Charlee Mae	J Gilligan
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Ghostly Girl	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Mean Sue	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Key to Success	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:27 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 WICKED SECRET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Wicked Secret	R Gutierrez
PLACE	5-2	2	Isocline	A Beschizza
SHOW	5-1	1	Little Man Can	J Graham
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Bodontknow	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Crossing	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Lazarus	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #5 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	9	Vintage Print	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	9-5	10	Eleven Central	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	12-1	7	Fenwick Station	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Tiberius Mercurius	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Founder	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	6	Vivar	C Landeros
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/10 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX
RACE #6 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 INVALUABLE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	2	Invaluable	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	7	Discernment	C A Torres
SHOW	2-1	4	Lil Grazen	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Everyotherwon	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Princesstapiture	L Y Marcano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Supertaleofhoudini	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 3/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Giant Game	M Garcia
PLACE	5-2	7	Principe dOro	J R Velazquez
SHOW	10-1	10	The Princes Spur	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	5-1	12	O Captain	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Tiwanaku	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Spin Wheel	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX, 10-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/10 BOX, 7/10/12 BOX
RACE #8 $50,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:23 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 LONG CROW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Long Crow	L Saez
PLACE	7-2	4	Flokis Flight	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	9-2	3	Johnys Fireball	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Cool Rags	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Carmichael	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Stonevicious	J Graham
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 11

May. 10, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Sams Treasure	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	12-1	2	Amirati	J L Ortiz
SHOW	2-1	5	Chitarra	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Marco T.	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Cynane	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Lonchura	E Cancel
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	6	Bourbon Chase	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	4	Bettrluckythangood	M Franco
SHOW	6-1	5	Morethanafeeling	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Red D G P	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Ormstown	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	2	Squid Gamer	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	3	Dreams of Tomorrow	M Franco
PLACE	3-1	5	Richiesgotgame	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	2-1	7	Empty Tomb	Rider TBA
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Bourbonic	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1	Daunt	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	6	Curlins Wisdom	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 CINDERELLAS CAUSE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Cinderellas Cause	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	6	Scott Alaia	J A Davis
SHOW	8-5	3	Silver Skillet	J Rosario
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Sweetie	M Olver
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Julianas Rose	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Liberty Flame	R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #5 $40,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:13 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 LOOSE GOOSE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Loose Goose	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Uncle Water Flow	J L Ortiz
SHOW	5-2	2	Smoke and Heat	M Franco
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Dreaming of Smarty	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Keen Heir	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Box Office Warrior	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Greatest Love	K Carmouche
PLACE	3-1	6	Ok Honey	M Franco
SHOW	6-1	2	Beautiful Karen	R Silvera
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Chaysenbryn	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	5	Run Devil	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Vegas Weekend	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 AGGREGATION
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Aggregation	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	7	Hush of a Storm	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	2	Olympic Dreams	J Castellano
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Wild Banker	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Full Moon Fever	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Daddy Knows	K Davis
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Timbuktu	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	2-1	16	Mandatory	Rider TBA
SHOW	8-1	7	Shinsun	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	2-1	1	My Sea Cottage	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Royal Spirit	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Our Country	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 6-16 BOX, 16-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/16 BOX, 1/7/16 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Pioneering Spirit	J L Ortiz
PLACE	12-1	15	Theregoesmymiracle	H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW	3-1	6	Variable Cost	M Franco
WILD CARD	12-1	11	Mad Magic	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	14	Carlin Clan	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Stormandy	R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 7-15 BOX, 15-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/15 BOX, 6/11/15 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - May 11

May. 10, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
5^th race [Clm 40000 N2L, 1 mi] – (4) Uncle Water Flow (D) returns from a five-month layoff to make his first start as a new gelding after getting claimed from a similar race when he was bet down from 9-1 to 6-1. (8) Loose Goose comes back from a three-month break to make his first start in a claiming race for Todd Pletcher and gets Irad Ortiz aboard. (2) Smoke and Heat has been racing in starter allowances since breaking his maiden for a $40,000 tag. (7) Pressure will also drop in for a tag for the first time. This will be his third start since changing to new barn in New York.
6^th race [Clm 20000, 7F] – (6) Ok Honey was claimed for $20,000 from her last start when she had the lead and finished second going a mile. (1) Vegas Weekend drops back to a level closer to the price at which he was an easy winner. (5) Run Devil has six top three finishes in a row including a win two races back in a starter allowance. (3) Chaysenbryn was a winner in a $16,000 claimer by more than four lengths.
8^th race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (9) Our Country made his last three starts at Gulfstream Park on a turf course that favored speed and still rallied well each time. He got a couple of months off and should find a more favorable turf course. (8) Royal Spirit gets a rider change to Flavien Prat as he makes his third start following a layoff. (6) Timbuktu makes his first start after switching barns to Rick Dutrow who won with his first starter after the 10-year suspension. (2) Parquetry was away for the winter and makes his 2023 debut for Barclay Tagg.
9^th race [Md 40000, 1 mi TURF] – (10) Stjames (B) moves back to the grass after breaking slowly last time, racing wide, and finishing third. (1) Second and Reed made his turf debut last time and made a big speed figure improvement even though he clipped heels and stumbled badly. (6) Valuable Cost is a European-bred that will make his debut for Chad Brown on the grass. (4) Peja Du is a half-brother of Grade 1 winner Include Betty, had a very wide trip in his debut for Rob Atras at 9-1 and now moves to the turf. (14) Carlin Clan (A) becomes the top pick if he gets into the field from the Also Eligible List.
Best bets: Ok Honey (6^th); Our Country (8^th). Best value: Uncle Water Flow (5^th); Stjames (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(4)	Uncle Water Flow	D on 12/9	5	He returns from a five-month layoff as a new gelding.
(10)	Stjames	B on 3/24	9	He broke slowly, raced wide, and finished third.
(14)	Carlin Clan	A on 4/15	9	Second on the Also Eligible List.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 11

May. 10, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Patch O’Brien debuts for Kenneally and seems ready for a big effort. (6) Callin My Name was third in his debut and is worth a look. (5) Frosty the Giant should benefit from his debut. (4) Dunphy could be a factor here. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-6. Doubles: 3-4-5-6 with 1-2-5-9.
2nd race – (2) Musical Diva should win at first asking for Cox. (5) Closing Act has some talent and should be a factor. (1) V V’s Dream will be a threat from the rail. (9) Krickle can move forward here. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-9.
5th race – (3) Founder will welcome a return to turf. (2) Tommy Bee will be dangerous on his best try. (5) Dash Attack may perk up on turf. (6) Vivar was impressive last time and cannot be discounted. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-6.
7th race – (4) Giant Game (A) had a rough trip when second last time and should make amends here. (9) Interlock Empire exits stakes company and fits better here. (10) The Prince’s Spur is worth a close look. (2) Master Game could perk up here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-9-10. Doubles: 2-4-9-10 with 3-4-5-6.
8th race – (4) Floki’s Flight flopped last time but can rebound here. (6) Long Crow should be more competitive for a claiming tag. (5) Carmichael will appreciate a dry track. (3) Johny’s Fireball looks like a contender here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-6.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(4)	Giant Game	A, 4/1	7 CD	Was a troubled second last time

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Armadillo Sports

Thursday’s 6-pack
Hardest 2023 NFL schedules, based on 2022 win %ages:
— Philadelphia
— Miami
— New England
— Dallas/Giants
— Jets
— Buffalo

This is before we know when teams play each other.

Quote of the Day
“It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them.”
Bud Grant

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the first head coach, other than Vince Lombardi, to win the Super Bowl?

Wednesday’s quiz
LA Rams’ owner Stan Kroenke also owns the NBA’s Denver Nuggets.

Tuesday’s quiz
From 1988-90, the A’s played in three straight World Series; losing two of them; they played the Dodgers, Reds and Giants in those series.

************************************************** **********

Thursday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

— Three other NFL games I’m looking forward to seeing when they’re played:

Chargers made OC Joe Lombardi a scapegoat when they blew that big lead and lost a playoff game to Jacksonville; Lombardi surfaced in Denver with Sean Payton, and is now a division rival of the Chargers. Those two games this season should be interesting.

Raiders DC Patrick Graham was passed over for the Giants’ head coaching job when the Giants hired Brian Daboll last year; Daboll worked wonders with Daniel Jones, hard to argue with Big Blue’s decision to hire Daboll, but you know Graham will be fired up when the Giants visit Las Vegas this fall.

— Used to be that in the NFL, if the visiting team was in the NFC, that game would almost certainly be shown on FOX, with AFC games on CBS. This will be the first year without that arrangement, which might be why the schedule seemed to take longer to put together this year.

— I’m on the airplane flying from Chicago to Las Vegas Monday, and a flight attendant asks me if anyone had ever told me that I look like Christopher Lloyd, the actor. I laughed and said no.

Christopher Lloyd is 84; I’m a lot younger than 84. I did like him in Taxi, though.

Last year in Las Vegas, a lady stopped me in a casino and asked me for my autograph; turns out she thought I was Larry David from Curb Your Enthusiasm. I’m a lot younger than he is, too.

Oy.

— Marlins 5, Arizona 4— Miami is 19-19 this season; 12-0 in one-run games, 7-19 in all the other games.

— Texas 4, Seattle 3— Mariners’ offense is struggling; Julio Rodriguez is hitting .205- this week they dropped him from leadoff to 6th in the batting order.

— This is how much baseball has changed in the last 40 years; the late Vida Blue threw 220+ innings in nine different seasons.

Last year, Sandy Alcantara (228.2 IP) was the only major leaguer to throw more than 205 IP.

— Lebron James’ son announced that he’ll play basketball at USC in the fall; now comes word that DJ Rodman, Dennis Rodman’s son, is transferring from Washington State to USC, who figure to get a ton of TV time, at least for the one season Bronny James will be there.

— RIP to Denny Crum, the great basketball coach; he led the Cardinals to two national titles and six Final Fours.

RIP to Joe Kapp, the only QB ever to lead his team to a Rose Bowl, Grey Cup final and a Super Bowl. He also coached Cal the day they beat rival Stanford in the Stanford Band game.

Cal hasn’t been in the Rose Bowl since Kapp played for them there in the late 50’s.

— If you’re the basketball coach at VCU, part of your contract says that if you bolt the Rams for greener pa$ture$, then your new school has to play a home-and-home with VCU, which is why the Rams have a home-and-home coming up with Penn State.

Personally, I think VCU is a better basketball job than Penn State, but no one asked me.

— There is a darts tournament near the hotel where I’m staying; ton of people walking around the hotel in very loud, very ugly shirts and for once, none of them are me.

— Kansas City Royals are averaging 7 runs a game in nine games this month, but they’re still only 4-5 in those games.

— Was watching The Price Is Right the other day; some lady had the last bid, trying to become a contestant on stage. She bid a dollar more than the previous high bid and she won.

Wonder if anyone has ever kept track of how often that tactic has worked? Show has been on TV for 50 years; would be fun to know that.

— There is only major league baseball game scheduled for the timeslot when the NFL is releasing its schedule tonight. Funny how that works out.