Wednesday 5/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#4 City of Clouds	Don't think he's going to be much of a price in here, but he looks tough with anything similar to the debut run at Tampa. He has some pace in a race that otherwise lacks it, and I'm assuming he isn't going to have a ton of trouble dispatching these.
#3 Italian Symphony	Debuter has a little bit of appeal in a race where most with experience haven't shown a ton, so it wouldn't be any surprise to see a fresh face make some noise right out of the box.
#1 He's a Good Dancer	He ran well enough in one of those sprint tries last year, but I worry that he might be a bit outrun in the early going and won't get the right kind of setup at this sharper trip.
Race Summary	City of Clouds figures to be in a spot to control this one from early on, and he probably only needs to hold his form to be able to get home. Single in the early wagers.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#6 Delta Wishes	Think she has some room to do better today after a really modest debut run at Mahoning back in January. She didn't come back on the tab for three weeks after that and had a couple other breaks in her morning form, so maybe she's ready for better today with intent.
#1 Stormin Melly	She'll go first out in a spot that doesn't have a ton of imposing form, so she might not have to be terribly fast to land a piece of this. Check her out ahead of time.
#4 Swigert	She's probably a decent enough fit off the Turfway form for cheaper, and I wonder if she just needs a really perfectly timed, patient move to eventually land one. Her running lines are full of middle moves before flattening, so maybe the right ride gets her near the wire at the right time.
Race Summary	Delta Wishes might have some upside for a capable barn, as she didn't show much at all in the Ohio debut earlier this year, but she has been able to string together some morning works ahead of this and might be ready for better.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Jama Dillon	His Tampa winter form wasn't all that reliable, but he ran well in a couple local starts last year and could get the right kind of finishing trip behind a couple potential forward players.
#1 Summer Palace	No real argument with anyone landing here, as he has historically been a decent finisher over the local footing. Class drop could easily do the job.
#3 Factorino	He's most likely brief pace before folding here and may be better suited at Mountaineer, but he might be the most committed to the front end, so maybe he can hang around for a small piece if he can discourage the chasing speed early.
Race Summary	Jama Dillion fits well here and has some upside while returning to the local footing, and I think he's playable at something a bit shorter than the 10/1 ML offering.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#7 MOON WARRIOR (6-1)	Rallied wide in sprint, fits well on best at preferred longer distance.
#6 TRENDING UP (3-1)	Finishes well but lost three photos in last five starts and has 13 seconds.
#3 SALTO DE TIGRE (5-2)	First or second in 7 of his 11 starts at various tracks nationwide.
Race Summary	MOON WARRIOR ran well enough to win in his second start off a similar freshening in February, but he ran into traffic at the 1/8th pole and finished third. He arrives off a useful sprint and looms an upset possibility on his best. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

Penn National - Race #5

#9 YES SIR ROBERT (6-1)	Can be excused for latest, live price play in third start off Kreiser claim.
#4 MARTINKELLY (7-2)	Trapped in the slop, had 3-wide stretch aim on leaders, nipped late for place.
#1 JUMPMASTER (5-2)	Beaten fave in same spot but can’t ignore 14-for-33 record at this distance.
Race Summary	YES SIR ROBERT checked and swung around a rival who pulled up lame on the backstretch in his first sprint attempt since Kreiser claimed him. He has some back-class and is a wakeup candidate at a tempting price. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #6

#5 JACK SLYE (3-1)	Right level, right set-up to notch second route victory.
#7 SUMMER ASH (2-1)	Finished second in 3 of 5 starts this year, most at short prices.
#1 SLINGSHOT BOY (4-1)	Sat ideal trip in win two back, was reluctant to load in latest.
Race Summary	JACK SLYE, a 6-1/2-length maiden breaker at one mile, bid 3-wide on the turn in his repeat try before the favorite and others passed by. He back-pedaled as the favorite last out but lands in an ideal spot to sit close to the pace and get the jump on the main contenders. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta/ $1 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $.20 Pick 6 (Races 3-8) - 70% Carryover
Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 1:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. THE EQUINEST is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE EQUINEST: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PRACTICAL MAN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the dist ance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	THE EQUINEST	8/1	5/2
5	PRACTICAL MAN	2/1	4/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ARCHARCH CAT	4	5/1	Front-runner	55	52	64.0	48.8	37.8
1	THE EQUINEST	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	73	71.8	64.4	60.9
5	PRACTICAL MAN	5	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	67	58.2	60.0	53.5
2	DRINKSONTHEBEACH	2	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	63	42.6	61.8	52.8
6	UNCAPTURED LYON	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	81	64.6	37.8	28.3
3	FARMHAND	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	55	52.0	40.6	31.6
7	MY TWO AUNT JOANS	7	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	62	46.4	56.6	49.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 3	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 3-4)($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 3-5)(.50 min)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 7:00P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JRS MAJESTIC MATTEO: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. JRS MADELYNS EGO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HONKYTONK TRUTH: Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JESSAGREATGRANDSON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JL QUEEN BLUE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	JRS MAJESTIC MATTEO	6/1	5/1
5	JRS MADELYNS EGO	4/1	7/1
9	HONKYTONK TRUTH	5/1	8/1
7	JESSAGREATGRANDSON	10/1	8/1
1	JL QUEEN BLUE	3/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JL QUEEN BLUE	1	3/1	Average	61	55	5.8	0.0	0.0
2	JRS MAJESTIC MATTEO	2	6/1	Average	65	61	5.6	0.0	0.0
3	JESS A WILD CARD	3	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	JRS SHINEY MAJESTIC	4	10/1	Average	64	53	5.1	0.0	0.0
5	JRS MADELYNS EGO	5	4/1	Average	65	53	4.5	0.0	0.0
6	CCA FUN WALK	6	15/1	Slow	54	35	6.2	0.0	0.0
7	JESSAGREATGRANDSON	7	10/1	Average	69	51	4.6	0.0	0.0
8	PILOTO WARRIOR	8	15/1	Slow	52	49	7.0	0.0	0.0
9	HONKYTONK TRUTH	9	5/1	Slow	62	55	6.3	0.0	0.0
10	EYESA BLUE BOY	10	6/1	Slow	0	0	8.8	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17600 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 17, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 HERO TIGER 7/2
# 2 NUMBER ONE DILLON 5/2
# 4 MACHO MIAH 8/1

I think HERO TIGER is a respectable choice. Vaunts reliable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. With a nice class figure average of 101, has one of the most competitive class advantages in this group of animals. Is a solid contender based on figs put up as of late under today's conditions. NUMBER ONE DILLON - Earned a strong speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Davis has recent ROI figures which make this one a strong bet. MACHO MIAH - Has been right there on the wire most every time recently. Strong choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:47pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#7 GOOD CULTURE (ML=7/2)
#1 IRISH HONOR (ML=4/1)
#5 CAUSALISTIC (ML=8/1)
#2 MARGIN OF AIR (ML=8/1)


GOOD CULTURE - This gelding is in exceptional condition right now. Ran first last race out and comes back promptly. Is ranked number one in earnings per start. A powerful try in this event can add to the lifetime bankroll. IRISH HONOR - I like the fact that this gelding's last fig, 92, is tops in this bunch. The improved Equibase speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. Taylor drops him in this event fit and ready to go. CAUSALISTIC - Haddock comes to saddle up after getting to know the gelding in the last affair. This horse is a hot commodity. Claimed in his last two races. MARGIN OF AIR - This beautiful animal should be rocking and rolling down the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 EXIT RIGHT (ML=2/1), #6 MR. DODA (ML=6/1),

EXIT RIGHT - Didn't look so great last time. Probably won't do much running in today's race. MR. DODA - Just cannot play any questionable contender right back after he doesn't hit the board after any long breather.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 GOOD CULTURE on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 47

Rating:

#6 DEVINE CANDY (ML=8/1)


DEVINE CANDY - I think the shorter distance will help this filly stay the trip. This rider and conditioner have a profitable ROI when they are put together. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the ability to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ELIZA ROSE (ML=3/5), #7 TOTAL RUSH (ML=5/1), #2 DONNATHEPRIMADONNA (ML=6/1),

ELIZA ROSE - In this circumstance, this questionable contender's inability to close ground in the last contest is a reason for concern. TOTAL RUSH - Just can't wager on any steed right back after she doesn't finish in the money after any long breather. This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts. This filly registered a speed rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event. DONNATHEPRIMADONNA - In any affair of 5 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been on the board in short distance events recently. She showed not much at all in the last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 DEVINE CANDY to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18100 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 17 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 YES SIR ROBERT 6/1
# 4 MARTINKELLY 7/2
# 2 CARGO SHIP 4/1

YES SIR ROBERT is the strongest bet in this race. This gelding looks like a playable longshot. Earning some good money in dirt sprint events. This gelding with Chiappe in the irons makes him a contender. MARTINKELLY - Had one of the most favorable speed figs of this group in his last race. Is tough not to examine based on speed figures which have been quite good - 83 avg - of late. CARGO SHIP - Like the finish positions in the last several races. Investors should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of animals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s 6-pack
Casinos have posted NFL spreads for the whole season; here are some spreads for Week 17, a long, long time from now:
— Jets -1 @ Cleveland
— Lions @ Dallas -2.5
— Raiders -2 @ Indianapolis
— Cardinals @ Philadelphia -10
— 49ers -3 @ Washington
— Bengals @ Chiefs -3.5

Quote of the Day
“[The front office] think this is the best bet for us right now to put us in a position to be urgent. We don’t see eye-to-eye on what we think is best for us right now.”
Raiders’ WR Davante Adams

Wednesday’s quiz
Denver Nuggets have always called Denver home, but they became the Nuggets in 1975, their 8th year in existence. What was the team called their first seven years in the ABA?

Tuesday’s quiz
Luxor hotel/casino in Las Vegas is shaped like a pyramid.

Monday’s quiz
This year, Willson Contreras was the Cardinals’ first Opening Day catcher other than Yadier Molina since 2005.

Mike Matheny was the Cardinals’ catcher before Molina.

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Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— ESPN got just about a half-hour out of the NBA Draft Lottery Tuesday night, and for some reason, the Westgate Superbook had the audio up the whole time.

I’m totally convinced that ESPN coaches its people to say “(insert name) is the greatest (insert position) ever”

They said Victor Wembanyama is the greatest draft prospect ever; any of those geniuses ever hear of a guy named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar?

Milwaukee Bucks went 27-55 in their first NBA season; they won a coin flip and drafted Kareem and for the next five seasons, they went:

56-26
66-16
63-19
60-22
59-23

Milwaukee made the Final Four of the NBA in its 2nd, 3rd, 4th year in existence; they won the NBA title in their third year of existence.

No doubt about it, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the best draft pick ever.

— San Antonio Spurs won the draft lottery; they’ll get Victor Wembanyama. Last time the Spurs had the #1 pick was 1997, when they took Tim Duncan- I felt old typing that.

— Over the last three seasons, NBA teams that have won the most games are the Bucks, the Suns and the 76ers. All three of them have fired their coach in the last few weeks. Go figure.

— By the way, talking about the NBA Draft, remember that nine years ago, the Denver Nuggets picked a guy from Europe with the 41st pick. No one at ESPN called him the greatest anything anywhere, but these days, they might.

Nikola Jokic has turned into a huge star.

— Nuggets 132, Lakers 126

Denver led 74-56 at halftime.
At one point, Nuggets were outrebounding LA, 20-3.
Lakers’ three subs were a combined +18, Denver’s were minus-31.

— This is the 27th NBA season where the Celtics/Lakers are both in the Final Four:
They met in the Finals 12 times
Lakers won, Celtics lost 9 times.
Celtics won, Lakers lost 4 times
They both lost……..once.

— One more quick thing about ESPN’s NBA studio show: If you insist on four people on a panel, how about more than one of them being a former player? A former coach wouldn’t hurt, either.

— A’s 9, Arizona 8 (12)— Oakland trailed 8-4 in 7th inning; Ryan Noda tied the game with a grand slam, and their bullpen did a great job. Arizona didn’t score after the 7th inning.

A’s finally got their 10th win this season; their starting pitchers still have only two wins, but they’ve been spunky, albeit not very talented.

— Marlins 5, Nationals 4— Both bullpens blew a late-inning lead; Jorge Soler walked it off with a 2-run homer in the ninth inning.

— Rays 8, Mets 5— Rays, with a payroll of $76,955,301, are now 32-11.
Mets, with a payroll of $358,404,946, are 20-23.

— Baltimore Orioles are 27-15, looking like a playoff team, but they’ve been shut out in Kyle Gibson’s last three starts.

— Quick NFL stat: The last 18 times there was a divisional home underdog in Week 1 of an NFL season, the home dog went 15-1-2 against the spread.

Another one; Jacksonville Jaguars are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Colts.

— I’m enjoying my trip to Las Vegas, but I’m not going to miss hearing the person in the next room snore while this is being typed up. Every freakin’ night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, May 17

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DETROIT is 99-59 Under (34.1 Units) in day games in the last 3 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 11-26 SU (-17.6 Units) in road games against NL West opponents in the last 3 seasons.

LA DODGERS are 7-1 SU (5.9 Units) in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.

OAKLAND is 11-34 SU (-26.4 Units) in home games in May games in the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 Over (10.5 Units) in road games in May games over the last 2 seasons.

SAN DIEGO is 19-42 SU (-27.2 Units) in home games in day games in the last 3 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 23-10 Under (12 Units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 in the last 3 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 15-4 SU (10.6 Units) in road games in all games in the current season.

NY YANKEES are 22-32 SU (-16.3 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 s...

SEATTLE is 155-113 Over (30.7 Units) in road games when playing with a day off since 1996.

NY METS are 16-30 SU (-17 Units) in an inter-league game in the last 3 seasons.

ST LOUIS are 208-118 SU (78.2 Units) as a home underdog of +100 or higher since 1996.

TEXAS are 29-11 SU (16.9 Units) in May games over the last 2 seasons.

CHI WHITE SOX is 43-26 SU (14.4 Units) in May games in the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 14-4 Under (9.6 Units) in home games in May games over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, May 17

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MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, May 17

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MLB

Wednesday, May 17

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Trend Report
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