Thursday 5/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Hawthorne - Race #4

#7 Minnesota Moon	Think he's fast enough to control the tempo here in a spot without a ton of proven pace, and I think something like his two-back race might be enough to land this with a favorable race shape.
#1 Blame Shifter	He finished well ahead of the top choice when they met last time out, but that guy might not take the same kind of heat again up top today. He's not exposed after just two starts and can be tough here.
#4 Going At It	He's got a pedigree page suggesting he might be a pretty decent Minnesota-bred when it's all said and done, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him land a piece of this right out of the box.
Race Summary	Minnesota Moon looks likely to be able to control the tempo up top today, and he might have a bit easier go of things on the engine today. Think he's pretty attractive here.

Hawthorne - Race #5

#10 Storm Born	He ran pretty well in a couple local turf starts here last fall, and I think he might find a pretty cozy spot behind the speed. Think he's a good fit with these.
#2 Modifier	He might work out a decent enough trip tracking the pace, and I'm hoping the new footing and class drop will allow him to get back to something more like the April graduation run here.
#5 Right on Richie	He has never been in this easy when facing winners, and one of his better turf route tries would likely land this. That said, he's meeting some other potential pace and may not get to relax a whole lot early. Probably overbet.
Race Summary	Storm Born has a little versatility in his running style and should appreciate getting back on the turf after a modest try last out at the $20,000 level. Think he can grind this one out.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#7 West Warpath	He was a bit one-paced when stepping up to try this level last time out, but I think he's probably going to land a good run of things while spying out wide, and he's capable of a better running line than he showed with similar last month.
#5 Sonnyisnotsofunny	He has turned into a pretty reliable finisher, and he should be able to get a little jump on the likely chalk listed next. Wouldn't be a surprise.
#2 Papa Rocket	His Oaklawn form makes him pretty imposing against this crew on paper, but he doesn't always bring his best stuff and has historically needed a bit easier. Maybe at this level with the locals.
Race Summary	West Warpath can bounce back with an improved try in this one, and he gets a better draw today for his pace-tracking running style. Things to like.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#2 LAS COLINAS (8-1)	Hunch she outruns her workouts, as bloodlines further suggest.
#5 MIST (6-5)	Followed move of 15-1 winner as pace fell apart, finished third in debut.
#6 SWEET JUDY BLUE (6-1)	Dam was MSW winner here and sire was millionaire and G-I winning miler.
Race Summary	LAS COLINAS hasn’t shown much in the morning but she’s at least worth an odds watch for a jockey-trainer duo that produced a positive return on investment the last 30 days. Her sire, Mohaymen, was a first-out winner and four-time Grade II victor, and her dam, Cool Moves, ran second in her MSW debut at Delmar. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#4 WALT WHITMAN (6-1)	Strong prep in 6F sprint, sire was accomplished turf router, solid value play.
#2 ADMIRAL’S WAVE (4-1)	Awakened on the lawn, ran troubled second behind odds-on winner.
#6 RACKET (3-1)	Can make good use of his speed but must summon more stretch kick.
Race Summary	WALT WHITMAN trailed to mid-turn, rallied 5-wide under minimal urging and finished a willing third in a 6F dirt sprint. His sire was a multiple Group 1 winner overseas and a $1.8 million earner going a route of ground. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#2 URANIUM (4-1)	Honest, versatile sprinter, loves Gulfstream, good value play.
#1 BLANKENSTEIN (3-1)	Ran good one in second start off similar rest the last time he won.
#7 LIVING WATER (8-5)	Lost a step in recent starts, gets class relief, earned $96k last year.
Race Summary	URANIUM is 11/3-3-3 sprinting in the past year, pushing his Gulfstream earnings to six figures. Leon gets back on board and could put the versatile 4-year-old in the lead role. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-7 exactas.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race 6	WPS (12% Takeout) / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $1 Daily Double
SO $13,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,500 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023 OR CLAIMING PRICE $13,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $13,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MOMENT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MOMENT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	MOMENT	9/5	2/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MOMENT	1	9/5	Front-runner	92	86	88.0	88.0	85.0
2	ASTI SKY	2	10/1	Front-runner	85	80	78.2	74.0	64.0
4	DANVILLE	4	3/1	Trailer	93	85	68.4	87.8	81.3
7	WILD FOX	7	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	71	64.6	77.2	66.2
5	LAVENDER EARL	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	87	87.6	74.8	67.3
6	JEFF THE LION	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	86	72.6	69.7	62.2
3	MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE	3	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	89	72	54.3	72.8	63.3

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn NationalPURCHASE

Penn National - Race 1	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 6:00P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 18 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SHOYYOOKH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DIAMONDS N DENIM: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHOYYOOKH : Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MI YAYIS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	DIAMONDS N DENIM	2/1	7/2
5	SHOYYOOKH	5/2	7/2
3	MI YAYIS	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SHOYYOOKH	5	5/2	Front-runner	60	55	54.8	45.8	40.3
6	DIAMONDS N DENIM	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	67	58.8	52.6	49.6
1	MISS JUNEBUG	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	58	29.8	49.2	39.7
2	BLEZNIATKA	2	15/1	Trailer	56	37	9.4	30.4	20.4
3	MI YAYIS	3	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	63	56	60.0	50.0	46.0
4	FALSE RULING	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	35	41.8	35.6	27.1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:46pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#2 OURPERFECTPRINCE (ML=2/1)
#6 SAUCY ARGUMENT (ML=3/1)


OURPERFECTPRINCE - A big drop in class figure points from his Apr 28th race at Evangeline Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the edge. As long as Thornton keeps this racer off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a big winner. There's something to be said for a change of surface. Last race this animal didn't like the terrain, but if you look two back on the dirt at Evangeline Downs, there was a great effort. I look for that again today. Have to forget about that last turf race. This gelding should do better hitting the main track today. SAUCY ARGUMENT - Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a sharp outing on April 19th. This horse wins a lot of money per race around the track. At the top in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BOSS MAN ZONG (ML=7/2), #5 BEAUDEAN (ML=9/2), #1 TENSAS ALL OURS (ML=8/1),

BOSS MAN ZONG - No good results for this runner in a sprint event over the last couple of months tells me that this colt is in a difficult situation BEAUDEAN - Tough to support any thoroughbred that runs as well as he did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all. TENSAS ALL OURS - The very long layoff will probably be the downfall for this vulnerable equine. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this mount as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 OURPERFECTPRINCE to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $134000 Class Rating: 96

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $26,400 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MARCH 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $23,400 AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE THEN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 TALBEYAH (IRE) 6/1
# 10 MISE EN SCENE (GB) 5/2
# 13 ONE TIME MO 8/1

TALBEYAH (IRE) looks strong to best this field. Recent numbers for the jock - 19 win percent - make this mare stand out in this field. Posted a very good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. She has been running quite well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this group. MISE EN SCENE (GB) - May best this group here, showing very strong figs of late. Make a note that this one runs with second time Lasix today. ONE TIME MO - At the top in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this group. Should hit the board without any problem.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #1 - Post: 6:35pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#1 WITHOUT A SONG (ML=7/2)
#4 WAGON TRAIN (ML=9/5)


WITHOUT A SONG - We have lots of early speed with this racer. He could wire this field. Fits well considering the fact that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed rating good enough to win today. WAGON TRAIN - This gelding notched a strong speed rating of 77 in his last event. That speed fig should be good enough to prove victorious in today's event. 57-69-77 are last three speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 AMOS MOSES HART (ML=3/1), #5 MIAMI MOONLIGHT (ML=9/2), #7 BOMBER COMMAND (ML=6/1),

AMOS MOSES HART - This steed will likely be at the back of the pack as this group crosses the wire. MIAMI MOONLIGHT - This gelding hasn't had any recent accomplishments in sprint contests. Difficult to invest in him in this race. The fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant. BOMBER COMMAND - That was merely not a very good display in the last race. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance contests recently. Not likely to see him doing it in today's event either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 WITHOUT A SONG is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at BEL

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - SA - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $65000 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BUSTIN BULLET 4/1
# 10 MADDIE'S GRACE 5/1
# 4 LA AGUILILLA 8/1

My choice in this race is BUSTIN BULLET. The speed fig of 82 from her most recent race looks decent in here. MADDIE'S GRACE - This filly could improve with second time Lasix. She looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. LA AGUILILLA - Could provide positive returns based on very strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 81. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 91, and has to be given consideration in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 18

May. 17, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Early Munny	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	7	Stormquist	J Loveberry
SHOW	7-2	5	Gold Sweep	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Rhyme Schemes	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Wilson Q	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Top of the Street	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	5	Monocacy	J L Castanon
PLACE	2-1	6	A Little Bit Crazy	R Gutierrez
SHOW	8-1	2	Fast Gal	M Garcia
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Puglia	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Floris	M Michel
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Tribal Spirit	W A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #3 $40,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Frog Town	C J Lanerie
PLACE	15-1	6	Big Beemster	M Murrill
SHOW	5-1	4	Atkins	I Castillo
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Humor Me Now	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Cowboy Values	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	9	Devils Cay	Y Navas
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:27 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ELLE EST FORTE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Elle Est Forte	L Saez
PLACE	7-2	12	Joyful Applause	E Morales
SHOW	8-1	10	Queen Judith	F Geroux
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Hay Stack	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Such Sounds	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Divinely Bolt	M Murrill
* EXACTA: 4-12 BOX, 12-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/12 BOX, 1/10/12 BOX
RACE #5 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 ICEATUDE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Iceatude	D Cannon
PLACE	9-2	3	Mo Moves	E Morales
SHOW	4-1	8	Kupp	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	15-1	11	Stayinyourlane	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	Sergeant Countzler	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	All Jokes Aside	L Saez
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 3/8/11 BOX
RACE #6 $62,500 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 INTREPID HEART
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Intrepid Heart	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	4	Outlier	G Saez
SHOW	2-1	5	Disc Jockey	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Kings Ovation	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Roman Centurian	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Koufax	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #7 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	12-1	2	Pharoahs Song	J Graham
PLACE	5-2	10	Mise En Scene	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	8	Shes Gone	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	10-1	15	Kathaan	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	12	Fancy Martini	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Under One Sky	W A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-15 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/10 BOX, 8/10/15 BOX
RACE #8 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:23 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	Penumbras Maker	F Geroux
PLACE	10-1	5	Take Shape	C Landeros
SHOW	12-1	8	Nursekringledances	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Inventing Anna	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Stunningly	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	9	Fancy	L Saez
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 18

May. 17, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 WELCOMETOMYWORLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Welcometomyworld	M Olver
PLACE	9-5	1	Balentina	J A Torres
SHOW	5-2	4	Accel Rose	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Herecomes Scarlett	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Akiva	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Georgies Ladies	J R Martinez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 MUSICAL HEART
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Musical Heart	E Cancel
PLACE	5-2	7	Caribbean	J L Ortiz
SHOW	10-1	3	Royal Realm	J A Torres
WILD CARD	5-1	2B	Dontbelate	O Hernandez Moreno
ALTERNATE 1	8-5	1A	Little Demon	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	6	Swift Tap	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Gypsy Janie	J A Torres
PLACE	2-1	4	Twice Smitten	M Franco
SHOW	6-1	5	Carly Hustle	G Huayas
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Vallarand	M Olver
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Trade Secret	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Keen Dancer	J L Samuel
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $30,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	10	Yogi	J A Torres
PLACE	2-1	3	Anileate	M Franco
SHOW	5-1	1	Miss Kristy	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	12-1	8	Lost Luggage	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Rosemary Potatoes	G Huayas
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Champagne Poetry	R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #5 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	12	Lola Flo	J L Ortiz
PLACE	4-1	5	Bustin Bullet	E Cancel
SHOW	5-2	14	She Caught My Eye	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Bella Principessa	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Rum Runner Ready	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Irish Jackson	K Davis
* EXACTA: 12-5 BOX, 5-14 BOX, 14-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/12/14 BOX, 5/8/14 BOX
RACE #6 $95,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 TONED UP
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	5	Toned Up	J L Ortiz
PLACE	2-1	3	Tough Street	D Davis
SHOW	9-5	1	Fireline	F Prat
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Lay the Groundwork	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	With This Vow	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	4	Amity Island	O Hernandez Moreno
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #7 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-5	4	Following Sea	J R Velazquez
PLACE	8-1	3	Three Two Zone	D Davis
SHOW	6-1	5	Chestertown	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Gun It	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Tops the Chart	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Synthesis	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #8 $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	11	Honey Money	K Carmouche
PLACE	4-1	8	Regal Realm	J L Ortiz
SHOW	5-2	6	Bahamian Club	F Prat
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Mrs. Green	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Mischievous Dream	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	5	Breeze Easy	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 11-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/11 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	14	Ukrainian Princess	G Huayas
PLACE	6-1	1	My Cara Mia Mine	J Castellano
SHOW	15-1	3	Giggling Ghost	J A Davis
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Queens Over Threes	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	2	Pauciloquent	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Dreaming of Carli	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 14-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/14 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pimlico Tip Sheet - May 18

May. 17, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $26,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Dancers Melody	L R Rivera Jr.
PLACE	3-1	1	Dulce Kiara	H Karamanos
SHOW	7-2	2	My Juba	J Rodriguez
WILD CARD	5-2	5	Mrs. Del	J Barbosa
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Miss Casey	J F Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Backstreet Affair	A Cruz
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Twelveoclockrock	W Humphrey
PLACE	4-1	1	Imnotonetocomplain	J A Hernandez
SHOW	8-1	5	Sassy Babe	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Creative Cadence	A Blanco
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	4	Fancy Princess	C E Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Evangeline Allons	Y O Ortiz
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #3 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 NEW YORK PANTHER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	New York Panther	J Toledo
PLACE	5-2	1	Alligator Arms	B L Butterfly
SHOW	8-1	3	Thats My Business	J Rodriguez
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Band Camp	A Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Toast to Coast	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Step Ahead	J Barbosa
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #4 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 FOWL NATION
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	Fowl Nation	A Concepcion
PLACE	5-2	2	Alvy	J Toledo
SHOW	10-1	6	Irish Warlock	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	9-2	3	Hes On Fire	A Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Steele Money	J Rosado
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Blown Save	Y O Ortiz
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #5 $26,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:37 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 SOUPER CATCH
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	7	Souper Catch	R Chiappe
PLACE	2-1	2	Lost My Vowcher	A Concepcion
SHOW	6-1	5	Galatians	H Karamanos
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Velvet Ghost	T Lyapustina
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Sicilia Mike	Y O Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Never Change	L R Rivera Jr.
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $40,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:11 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	Semper Fi	J Rodriguez
PLACE	6-1	9	Johng	F Boyce
SHOW	9-2	6	Kendama	C Marquez
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Colbaloaf	J A Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1A	Berks	A Concepcion
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Strong Headed	J C Alvelo
* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/9 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX
RACE #7 $54,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	7	Hardspun Reason	V R Carrasco
PLACE	3-1	2	Affable Monarch	H Karamanos
SHOW	20-1	1	What Say You	J Barbosa
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Montauk Point	J Toledo
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Romp	Y O Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Candy for Carmel	J Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #8 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	5	Natagar	H Karamanos
PLACE	3-1	4	Sir Smoak	G Whitacre
SHOW	3-1	7	Shadow Box	A Concepcion
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Rushin Tothecircle	R Monterrey
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Cavalry Command	J Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Superstitieux	J F Hernandez
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 18

May. 17, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (5) Gold Sweep debuts for Asmussen and looks best here. (7) Stormquist has been working quickly for his debut. (3) Wilson Q is worth a look in this field. (4) Trailing Monster could be a factor in his debut. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-7. Doubles: 3-4-5-7 with 1-2-4-6.
2nd race – (6) A Little Bit Crazy heads east off a Santa Anita win and should handle this field. (1) Puglia drops to a level where she should be competitive. (4) Tribal Spirit also should respond to a class drop. (2) Fast Gal should appreciate the cutback in distance. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6. Exactas: 1-6 over 2-4 and 2-4 over 1-6.
4th race – (1) Hay Stack was a determined winner at Keeneland and should prevail here. (4) Elle Est Forte should work out a good trip here. (12) Joyful Applause can be a factor if she overcomes the outside post. (10) Queen Judith figures to be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-10-12.
6th race – (5) Disc Jockey should prove best in this field after some good efforts at Oaklawn. (4) Outlier won by a nose and cannot be ignored. (7) Intrepid Heart has back class and is dangerous on his best try. (2) Zoomer is capable of waking up in this field. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-7. Doubles: 2-4-5-7 with 1-7-10-11.
7th race – (10) Mise En Scene (A) makes amends here after a belatedly rally last time. (1) Lady Puchi could benefit from a rail trip. (11) Manuca might be a factor in her U.S. debut. (7) Talbeyah can move forward off her last try. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-10-11.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(10)	Mise En Scene	A, 4/22	7 CD	Rallied belatedly for second

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - May 18

May. 17, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md 20000, 7F] – (1) Balentina is projected to be on the lead as she drops down from the $40,000 Level. (2) Welcometomyworld had a big jump in speed figures in his second start of the year, drops down a notch, and cuts back in distance. (4) Accel Rose tried the turf last time going long and also cuts back and drops down. (5) Herecomes Scarlett will move from a $40,000 claimer and gets a positive rider change.
3^rd race [Clm 10000, 1 mi] – (1) Trade Secret (D) was bet down from 20-1 to 16-1 in her second try for a $16,000 tag, ran fourth, and tries the lowest claiming level at Belmont Park. (2) Gypsy Janie (B) was claimed from her first start of the year when she raced seven-wide and finished third. (4) Twice Smitten ran third then second in her two starts this year with improving speed figures. (5) Carly Hustle won a $14,000 claimer at Aqueduct in February and then moved up to a $16,000 level.
4^th race [Clm 30000 N2L, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (3) Anileate (A) returned to the turf where she had to rally from behind after getting pinched back at the start, got to the lead, and finished second. (9) Heartburn in her first start of the year set the pace, finished third, and should benefit from that race as the likely pacesetter again. (7) Champagne Poetry will return to the turf where last year she ran for the first time. She was second in the Ruthless at Aqueduct and brings that back class into the claiming ranks for the first time. (4) Irony gets a trainer change as she moves back to the grass and drops in for a tag.
9^th race [NY, Md 40000, 6F TURF] – (5) Queens Over Threes (A) will try the grass for the first time after rallying for second after having to correct paths from running up on heels last time. (2) Pauciloquent was third in her third start as she tried the grass for the first time. (6) Gotham Gray will cut back in distance after setting the pace last time in her third start. (1) My Cara Mia Mine made her first start of the year in a maiden special weight and drops back into the claiming ranks.
Best bets: Balentina (1^st); Anileate (4^th). Best value: Trade Secret (3^rd); Queens Over Threes (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1)	Trade Secret	D on 4/20	3	She drops to the lowest claiming level.
(2)	Gypsy Janie	B on 4/13	3	Raced seven wide, finished third, and got claimed.
(3)	Anileate	A on 4/28	4	Pinched back at start, got the lead, finished second.
(13)	Carbon	D on 5/4	5	Entered for Main Track Only.
(14)	She Caught My Eye	B on 5/4	5	Entered for Main Track Only.
(5)	Queens Over Threes	A on 3/12	9	Corrected off heels in the stretch and rallied for second.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Sail By returns to Belmont turf

Posted on May 17, 2023 by David Aragona
Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 6:45 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs are now available on DRF.com. Go to PPs
Most of the major players in this optional claimer are returning from layoffs. That includes likely favorite Bahamian Club (#6). This filly ran deceptively well in her second career start last June. She got the wrong trip stalking along the rail during a time when the outside paths were preferred on the inner turf, before getting stymied in traffic late. She subsequently improved when working out a great trip to win at Saratoga. She then ran the best race of her career in the Pebbles to close out her season, rallying into a slow pace after racing outside throughout. The 7-furlong distance of this race may be a little short for her, but she clearly has talent and will be tough to handle if she returns in top form.
Miss Carol Ann (#2) also last raced in the Pebbles back in September at Aqueduct, and was similarly compromised by a slow early pace. She was even farther back in the early stages than Bahamian Club, trailing the field early. Yet she did well to make up some ground through the lane while never really threatening. I don’t mind the turnback as much for her, since she was successful sprinting in Europe last year. Graham Motion also does very well off layoffs.
The horse who could take money who I’m against is Regal Realm (#8). She earned a massive 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure last time, but I have some doubts about the overall quality of that race. She also got to set an extremely slow pace before sprinting home. She’s the primary speed once again, but this is a tougher field.
My top pick is Sail By (#9). This filly has run some of her best career races at Belmont Park. She won her debut here as a 2-year-old before earning her biggest victory in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at this venue in late 2021. She failed to win during her 3-year-old season, but she did put forth her best effort over this course and distance when a narrowly beaten third in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly. She had a legitimate excuse after that, as she was off to a poor start before chasing outside in the Lek Placid. I like her cutting back off the layoff. She has also changed hands since last year, and has a right to improve off the trainer switch to Phil Antonacci.