Service Plays Friday 6/9/23

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Hakeem profit

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Date/Time: Jun 9 2023 8:30 PM EDT
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 210.5 (-110)

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Scott Rickenbach

Pirates Over
Padres Over

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Goodfella
3* Finals Total of Year Over 210.5

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Bob Balfe
Nuggets -3.5
Phillies/Dodgers under 9

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Matt Rivers:

Brewers RL

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Bob Balfe
Nuggets -3.5
Phillies/Dodgers under 9

NBA
8:30 PM EST
Rotation #519
Nuggets -3.5 over Heat
I could start and end this write-up with four words – Points in the Paint. Denver is so good at scoring in close, and Miami could be better at stopping it. The Heat have been excellent in the playoffs, but the realization sets in. Denver is just too good. Miami would have to shoot a ridiculous number of three-pointers tonight to stay in the game. Nobody can handicap if that happens, but they didn’t look good last game. Look for Denver to bully their way to a commanding series lead. Take the Nuggets.

MLB
7:05 PM EST
Rotation #901-902
Dodgers/Phillies Under 9 runs
Grove/Suarez
Both teams need to improve at hitting left-handed pitching. Dodgers pitcher Victor Gonzalez has been good this year and should limit the Phillies’ hitters to a low run total. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is not having his best year, but tonight is a perfect chance to play well against an awful Dodgers team against left-handed pitchers. It’s weird seeing both teams not good at hitting lefties, but that’s how it is this season. The wind is not a factor for long hits, and I expect a lower-scoring game. Take the Under.

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CallingOurShot
4 MLB Picks incoming. A hot streak is coming in baseball, I can feel it. Let’s start that streak today.

The Picks:
1.5u - Cardinals-1.5 (+114, Barstool)
1u - Tigers +0.5 First 5 Innings (-124, FanDuel)
1u - JD Martinez (LAD) & Freddie Freeman (LAD) Each to Record a Hit Parlay (-110, FanDuel)
1u - Marlins/White Sox No Run First Inning (-120, DraftKings)

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CallingOurShot

Good evening! Back-to-Back 2-1 NBA Days. Let’s try to get this 3-0 sweep we deserve.

This game is a weird one. I have 1 Player Prop & 2 Bankroll Builders. I feel like the lines I like are very sharp, so the Builders feel like safe way of doing things. I tried to give pivots for people on other sportsbooks (not FanDuel). Use your best judgment. Let’s just hop right in.

1u: Gabe Vincent (MIA) OVER 12.5 Points (-113, FanDuel)

Playable up to -130.
I would be surprised if this line went to 13.5 Points, so you should be able to get 12.5 everywhere up to tip-off.
Let’s talk about Vincent this series.
G1: 19 PTS (7/14 FGA) 38 MINS
G2: 23 PTS (8/12 FGA) 32 MINS
G3: 7 PTS (2/10 FGA) 32 MINS
What sticks out to me most: consistent FGAs & Minutes.
Earlier on in this postseason, Vincent wasn’t guaranteed either of those things, and while he still isn’t guaranteed anything, he has proven his worth.
In Games 1 & 2, Vincent crushed this line. Game 3, everything went wrong. He struggled with foul in the first half (2 of his 3 fouls weren’t great calls). He also shot 2/10. He was never able to find a rhythm.
In Game 3, we also saw Adebayo attempt 21 shots, Butler 24 shots. While those guys will get their attempts, the Heat will have a very tough time winning games if they are relying on those 2 players to score all their points.
The Heat have made it this far by having a collective team effort, everyone chipping in. Thus, I feel like they need to get the ‘others’ going.
Adebayo & Butler have to keep being aggressive, but also try to get Vincent/Strus/the supporting cast going.
This postseason, Gabe Vincent has played 30+ minutes in 13 games scoring 13+ PTS in 9 of 13 (69%).
This postseason, Gabe Vincent has attempted 10+ FGAs in 13 games scoring 13+ PTS in 9 of 13 (69%).
Vincent has played 30+ minutes and had 10+ FGAs in 8 games scoring 13+ PTS in 7 of 8.
His Only Miss: Game 3 of this Series
I like Vincent to continue to play big minutes & be aggressive.
Worth Noting: Kyle Lowry got injured in the final few minutes of Game 3. While I expect him to play in Game 4, there’s no guarantee he’s 100% or he could reinjure himself, which would put Vincent back in the game for more minutes.

Lean: Jamal Murray UNDER 25.5 Points

Bankroll Builder: Nuggets Edition

Jamal Murray 6+ Assists
Jamal Murray 3+ Rebounds
Jamal Murray UNDER 34.5 Points
Nikola Jokic 25+ Points
Aaron Gordon 8+ Points

Odds: +114 (FanDuel, 5 Leg Same Game Parlay)
Risking: 1 Unit to Win 1.14 Units

Before you say ‘Austin, I’m on FanDuel, they only have 4-6-8-10 Rebounds’. Just scroll down. They have alternate rebound lines, you will take OVER 2.5 for Murray, just like you will take OVER 7.5 Points for Gordon.
For My DraftKings Users, as a replacement for Jamal UNDER 34.5 Points, I don’t mind Jamal 18+ Points.
However, like I said before, I like Jamal’s UNDER 25.5 Points, and I feel like the u34.5 PTS is safer.
For starters, this parlay is 3-0 in this series.
In my opinion, the Heat let Murray get going early in Game 3 before making adjustments. This game, they will come out with effort to make his life as difficult as possible.
Jokic is going to get his regardless, but you have to stop Murray at least try to.
Let’s talk about this.
Murray has 3+ REBS in all 18 playoff games. Murray has 6+ ASTS in 10 of 18 playoff games, but 10+ in all 3 this series averaging 18 potential assists per game.
Murray is UNDER 34.5 Points in 14 of 18 games. It’s always scary fading a guy like Murray who can heat up at a moment’s notice, but I trust Miami to make adjustments and really limit his scoring looks.
Going along with Murray UNDER PTS is Jokic 25+ PTS.
Jokic has 25+ PTS in 13 of 18 this postseason including 32, 41 & 27 PTS in all 3 this series. Barring foul trouble, he should get the volume to get to 25+ with Jamal seeing double teams.
Last Leg: Aaron Gordon 8+ Points.
Aaron Gordon has 8+ PTS in 17 of 18 playoff games. He has scored 16, 12 & 11 this series. I expect him to play 33+ minutes. He’s needed for defense and will be open down low on some mismatches.

Bankroll Builder: Heat Edition

Jimmy Butler 4+ Assists
Bam Adebayo 2+ Assists
Bam Adebayo 8+ Rebounds
Bam Adebayo 15+ Points
Bam Adebayo UNDER 26.5 Points

Odds: +121 (FanDuel, 5 Leg Same Game Parlay)
Risking: 1 Unit to Win 1.21 Units

Yes, you read that right. We are rooting for Bam to score AND THEN rooting against him. Here’s the thing: I like Bam to score 15+ Points, I like the matchup for him to continue to be aggressive.
In the same breath….
Bam is UNDER 26.5 Points in all 21 playoff games this season. As we all know, playoff lines are sharp. Betting him to score 15+ but UNDER 26.5 is just asking the books to be sharp on his line.
Now, that we got that out of the way, let’s talk about the other legs.
Jimmy Butler has 4+ ASTS in 17 of 20 playoff games, including 7, 9 & 4 ASTS this series (13 potential assists last game).
Bam Adebayo has 2+ ASTS in 17 of 21 playoff games. He’s had 5, 4 & 3 ASTS this series. Adebayo has 8+ REBS in 18 of 21 playoff games including 13, 9 & 17 this series.
I know this one looks weird, but the weird ones tend to cash. I like it. Tail Responsibly.

If you combined both Bankroll Builders, you get +400 odds.

Feel free to put 0.5u on that if you don’t feel like tailing each for 1u.

My Underdog Fantasy Entry:

My Entry:
Jamal Murray LOWER 25.5 Points
Jimmy Butler HIGHER 0.5 Points (FREE SQUARE)
Gabe Vincent HIGHER 12.5 Points

This is to turn $20 to $120.

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Al Demarco: Nuggets

Chuck O’Brien: Orioles RL

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Andrew McInnis

5% Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians
Houston Astros -104 C Javier (RHP), L Allen (LHP) Must Start

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August Young

4* AZ -140
4* BAL -175
4* TOR -120

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Vernon Croy

4* Nuggets -3.5

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Esparza VSI

6u Brewers rl -1.5 (action)

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Sports Analytics 24/7
MLB

Red Sox F5 +.5* (7:00)

Twins/Blue Jays F5 O4.5 (7:00)

Mets/Pirates F5 O5 (7:00)

Phillies F5 (7:00)

$Bet to win 1.5 units on *. Bet to win 1 unit on others individually



Parlay

Red Sox F5 +.5 (7:00)

Twins/Blue Jays F5 O4.5 (7:00)

Mets/Pirates F5 O5 (7:00)

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RAS

WNBA

657 New York/Atlanta Over 163.5
660 Indiana/Minnesota 1H under 81.5