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Big Al "Last Home Game" Play of the Year
Oklahoma St -5.5 over Kansas St
Oklahoma St -5.5 over Kansas St
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Re: 3-3-09
BURNS NBA
Basketball (NBA)
SACRAMENTO
Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 3/3/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm taking the points with SACRAMENTO. The Pacers have been excellent when facing top tier teams at Indiana this season. They've really struggled to get wins on the road though, regardless of the opponent. In fact, although Indiana is favored, the Kings' home record (9-20) is better than the Pacers' (7-25) road record. The Pacers began the month by scoring a minor upset vs. Denver. However, they haven't followed up performances like that very well, as they're just 3-8 SU (4-7 SU) when coming off a SU victory as an underdog. Looking back further and we find them at just 12-21 in that situation the past few seasons. Forward Troy Murphy acknowledged his team doesn't play as well against losing teams, saying: "For whatever reason, against some of the teams that have a couple more losses, we play down to the level of the competition." For the season, Indiana is just 11-18-1 ATS against losing teams. The Kings closed out February with a 13-point loss at Utah, covering as 17 point underdogs. Note that they're 14-9 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. It's also worth noting that they won their most recent home game, knocking off a Clippers team which had won back to back games. Including those pointspread victories, the Kings have now quietly gone 6-2 ATS their last eight games. It's also worth noting that they're 5-2 ATS on the season, when playing with two day's rest in between games, going 22-14-2 ATS their last 38 in that situation. The Kings covered the spread at Indiana earlier, losing by five as 7.5 point underdogs. They also won the previous meeting and have won nine of the last 13 games in the series overall. They've had plenty of time to adjust to the lineup changes and I look for them to follow up the double-digit victory over the Clippers, in their most recent game here, with another strong effort for the home fans tonight. *annihilator
OVER raptors/rockets
Game: Toronto Raptors vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 3/3/2009 8:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Rockets and Raptors to finish OVER the total. The Rockets have had no trouble scoring without McGrady in the lineup. They scored 105 in their last game and 102 in the game before that. They practically never have a really "bad" offensive game, either. In fact, they've now scored a minimum of 93 points in 23 straight games, averaging greater than 101 per game during that stretch. Facing a Raptors' defense which has really struggled recently, I expect the Rockets to exceed that average this evening. Toronto gave up 109 points last time out. That marked the fifth straight opponent which has scored triple-digits against them. Granted, those games came against some high-scoring teams. Still, the defense has not been playing well, as those five opponents averaged a whopping 115.8 points per game, hitting 48.6% from the field. The offense has averaged a healthy 107.4 points during the same stretch. For the season, the Raptors have seen the OVER go a profitable 20-12-1 when playing away from Toronto. They've also seen the OVER go 16-10 when facing teams from the Western Conference. These teams played a very low-scoring game against each other earlier. However, that was at Toronto and it was the day after New Year's. As mentioned, both teams are currently scoring a lot more points these days. Additionally, it should be noted that the OVER is 8-3 the last 11 times that the Raptors traveled to Houston and a profitable 15-5 the last 20 series meetings overall. With the number having fallen from its opener, I feel that we're getting excellent line value. Look for the final combined score to prove higher than most are expecting with the OVER improving to 14-6 the last 20 times that the Rockets were coming off a double-digit victory. *Blue Chip -
Re: 3-3-09
BURNS NCAA
Basketball (NCAA)
SOUTH FLORIDA
Game: Cincinnati vs. South Florida Game Time: 3/3/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: South Florida Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTH FLORIDA. This is an important game for the Bearcats, as they're looking to improve their tournament chances by closing out the season with victories in their final two games. However, they aren't playing well of late, having lost three of four, including two straight on the road. Granted, all four of those games were against opponents which are better than the Bulls. However, I believe that the Bulls will also be at their best this evening. Although they're dealing with some injuries, they're also playing their final home game and would love to give the home fans one last victory, particularly one which would do damage to their opponent. While the offense has admittedly struggled as a whole, Dominique Jones, who leads the team in nearly every offensive category, continues to get the job done. You may recall Jones making the game-winning bucket against Marquette, a team which had won 12 straight at the time. The Bearcats are just 3-6 SU/ATS in road lined games and 4-7 SU/ATS away from home overall. Of those four "road" victories, two came by two points and another (at lowly Depaul) came by just four. St. John's was the only team that they beat by more than four points on the road all year. I expect them to have their hands full once again here as the Bulls, who are allowing just 59.8 ppg game at home and who lost by only one at Cincy last year, close out their home regular season with a much stronger effort than most believe they're capable of and come away with the upset. *Best BetComment
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Re: 3-3-09
BURNS HOCKEY
Hockey (NHL)
BOSTON
Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins Game Time: 3/3/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Boston Bruins Reason: I'm laying the price with BOSTON. At first glance, this price seems a bit on the steep side - and it is a higher price than I normally like to lay. However, when we consider that the Bruins were -205 or -210 favorites when they hosted the Flyers less than a month ago, this price begins to seem a lot more reasonable. Despite an edge in shots on goal, the Bruins lost last month's meeting by a score of 4-3. That shouldn't concern us though, as Boston is 14-8 the last 22 times that it was in the 'revenge' role, including a profitable 6-2 (+3.9) the last eight times that it was attempting to avenge a home loss. While the Flyers, who come off a 3-0 loss at New Jersey, are playing their second straight road game, the Bruins are playing the fourth leg of a 6-game homestand. While they lost a tough one vs. Washington last time out, note that they're a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that they were coming off three or more consecutive home games. Its also worth noting that the Bruins are 9-5 the last 14 times that they come off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. On the other hand, the Flyers are 17-27 the last 44 times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game, incl. a money-burning 26-46 (-18.3) during the same stretch, when coming off a loss by two goals or more. Prior to the loss vs. the Capitals, the Bruins had been 2-0 on the homestand winning by a combined score of 12-1. Look for them to "get back on track" here, avenging last month's loss and improving to 20-7 the last 27 times that they played a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. *Big chalk GOWComment
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