Sunday 6/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:40 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 6/18/23

June 18, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Buzz of New York; 2-Queen Ofthe Temple
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Santa Barbara Stakes winner Queen Ofthe Temple tries for a repeat in the listed Possibly Perfect Stakes over the same course and distance but picks up six pounds due to that victory, so a repeat won’t quite be a slam dunk. She usually hits the board and almost certainly will again in this five runner affair. Buzz of New York, fourth, beaten less than fourth lengths behind ‘Temple last time out, may be able to make up the difference, though she has to pick four pounds herself. The Irish-bred mare is reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez after getting a less than ideal trip in the Santa Barbara, and it would hardly be surprising to see her turn the tables. We’ll give ‘Buzz a very slight edge on top, but both should be included in rolling exotic play and in a race that won’t offer much wagering value.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Muth
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Muth brought $2 million in the OBS March Sale, where he breezed a furlong in a sales-topping 9 3/5 seconds without being asked for his best and looking very much like a super star in the making. He debuts from a cozy outside post in the six runner affair, and while he’s probably not even remotely cranked up, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Good Magic should beat this field without taking a deep breath. At 4/5 ln the morning line but certain to leave lower than that, he’s a no value rolling exotic single.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Kitty Kitana
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: On pure form Kitty Kitana can beat this second level allowance field but she’s never been trustworthy, having failed as the favorite in four of her last five starts. There should be more than ample early pace to compliment her late running style, so if English-bred filly fires her best shot she should be able to tag the leaders close home. There are positives and negatives associated with the other seven starters, so in a race that we’re not planning to get involved in, we’ll make the Phil D’Amato-trained import a rolling exotic single. A better approach might be to simply it out and seek better opportunities.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Bella Renella
Backups/Savers: 1-Kiss My Kat.

Forecast: Bella Renella is nicely drawn outside in this starter optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares and should be capable of repeating her recent dominating score that came at the expense of softer $20,000 claiming rivals. The veteran mare is a six time winner over the Santa Anita main track and her recent speed figures indicate she should be more than capable of adding to that total today. Kiss My Kat represents inside speed, and with this return to the main track and the shortening to six furlongs the daughter of Curlin to Mischief should improve enough to pose a reasonable threat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to Bella Renella.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Offlee Naughty
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Offlee Naughty has never been better for trainer Michael McCarthy and will be odds-on to extend his winning streak to four in this year’s renewal of the San Juan Capistrano S.-G3 for older marathoners. Much the best in the recent San Luis Rey Stakes-G3 against similar foes over the Hillside Course last month, the son of Flashback overcame traffic trouble on the far turn to regain his momentum and win going away with complete authority. Today’s longer trip should present no issue, whatsoever, so at 4/5 on the morning line he’s an obvious rolling exotic single in another race that is best left alone.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-My Man Bags
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: My Man Bags has proven to be a sensational $8,000 claim (last November at Del Mar) by trainer Mark Glatt and the veteran gelding appears well spotted to continue his winning ways in this allowance optional claimer over the extended sprint trip of six and one-half furlongs. Successful in two of his last three starts, including a starter optional claimer over the local main track 16 days ago, he returns off short rest while getting a break in the weights under bug boy Aguilar, who rode him to victory in a fast race in March. Effective on the lead or from a stalking position, the son of Daredevil most likely will do his best running behind what should be fairly hot fractions and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Squared Shady; 2-Paleo’s Princess.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the seventh race, an allowance optional claiming turf sprint over the flat course for first-level allowance fillies and mares. Squared Shady won a similar affair in an extended grass dash in late April with a career top speed figure and tackles basically the same gang today while being entered for the $40,000 tag. First or second in four of nine career starts over the local turf strip, the daughter of Square Eddie has good early speed but can stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates, so Kent Desormeaux, who got to know her in her recent victory, can assess the situation and choose his strategy. Paleo’s Princess is a tad shy in the speed figurer department but she’s a trier with two wins over this turf course and figures to be doing her best work late. Toss her in on your ticket.

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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Elwood Blues; 5-Sir Atticus; 10-Fifth Street
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: This is a deep and contentious maiden special weight sprint for older horses, and it should take a pretty decent colt to win it. Elwood Blues finished a promising second in a hot race in his debut last fall but then was turned out. He finally makes it back for trainer Bob Baffert with a work tab should have him tight enough, and if the son of Justify returns as well as he left he’ll be hard to deny. The first time Lasix user lands top jockey Juan Hernandez, and after finishing second to stable mate Arabian Lion in his debut at Del Mar it’s not likely he’ll have any such competition to worry about today. Sir Atticus buck-jumped soon after the start, fell back, lost all chance, but then picked it up late to finish well when fourth in a much better than looked debut last month. The 4-year-old colt seems certain to improve with experience, and if he puts his head down and travels straight and true the son of Gormley could make a serious run for it. Fifth Street, a first timer and a stablemate of our top pick in the Baffert barn, breezed with ‘Blues in a gate drill June 1 and more than held his own despite a slow start. If the son of Quality Road breaks with his field he should have enough speed to be within range and then remain a factor throughout. At 4-1 on the morning line, he looks very much like a live item.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Indessia; 5-Organic; 8-Magic Game
Backups/savers: 11-Exclusively Noble.

Forecast: Indessia has an improving pattern and the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle, so let’s put the Smiling Tiger filly on top in this extended turf dash for state-bred fillies and mares. She’ll likely to get outrun early but in a field with suspect early speed she should have every chance from the quarter pole home to make a favorable impression. Organic is the quickest of the quick, and in her first try on grass the Neil Drysdale-trained filly may stick much better than she has so far in four races on the main track. She removes blinkers, switches to Umberto Rispoli, and will take them as far as she can. Major Game finished steadily to be second against a similar group last time out and rates a look once again, though as a 10-race maiden she appears to have gotten into the habit of losing. Exclusively Noble is bred for grass (Noble Mission) and has trained well enough for a clever outfit to include somewhere on your ticket. The outside draw does her no favors, but if she can run at all she should be able to act in this league.

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RACE 10: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Flying Drummer
Backups/savers: 8-Manitowish.

Forecast: Flying Drummer was extremely well-meant in his first start in 17 months but was worn down late and had to settle for second money in a similar main track miler for first level allowance older horses in an effort that produced a career top speed figure. Anything close to that performance today should be more than good enough to get the Bob Baffert-trained son of Gun Runner into the winner’s circle. Most effective on the front end, the lightly raced 4-year-old likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics and if not pressured early should be able to dominate throughout. He is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and at anything close to that price will offer excellent value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Manitowish has competitive numbers and is worth including as a saver. In the frame in his last 12 starts, this remarkably consistent and genuine gelding projects to inherit a stalking position just off ‘Drummer and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on.

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RACE 11: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Spicybug; 6-Procrastination; 4-Itzel
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Spicybug improved a ton in her fifth career start when graduating with a huge, much improved speed figure over the local lawn in a fast, productive maiden affair last month. If she can duplicate that performance in this first level allowance affair the daughter of Speightstown can make it two straight. She has a good stalking style that should produce a trouble-free trip, so we’ll put her on top while also including Procrastination, fourth in the Senorita Stakes-G3 after cutting out the fractions and today returning to the allowance ranks while shortening to a sprint. The daughter of Not This Time projects to be a major pace player throughout. You have to toss in Itzel as well. The Peter Miller-trained filly tackled the boys in a tough grass dash last month and did extremely well to wind up second after leading the way into the lane. It was a career top performance on speed figures, one that if repeated today makes her a major threat and a “must use.”

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RACE 12: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Mystifcation; 10-Quality Wins
Backups/savers: 5-Hula Candy.

Forecast: Mystification shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for trainer Doug O’Neill and also is removing blinkers (love both of those angles), so we’re expecting that he will be ready to continue his improving pattern in this one mile grass affair for older maidens. Likely the controlling speed if his connections choose that strategy, the son of Good Magic certainly has the pedigree to enjoy the extra ground, and with rising numbers and a recent bullet workout, this promising sophomore colt looks ready for a major effort. Quality Wins, a solid third when favored over this course and distance in mid-March, has room for further improvement, and with blinkers going on for the first time the Mark Glatt-trained gelding is likely to display improved early speed. Like our top pick, his speed figures are steadily rising with experience. Hula Candy walked out of the gate in his debut and fell far back, but then he closed a gap to be a very respectable fifth in a solid sprint effort last month. He’s a 5-year-old trying to play catch up, but he has ability and could produce a significant forward move today with added distance and a reasonably decent gate break.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:40 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 18, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card featuring Buckeye Stallion Series action. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Coupe Deville (5/2)-Comes off a couple of even efforts, Davis Jr gets the call tonight and that could help. This gal has one nice move and there aren't any real standouts in this bunch. Will use and fade the program choice #5 at 8/5. Could take a picture with a sharp steer.
2-Crysta's Legacy (5/2)-This filly has breaking issues but maybe that could be behind her. In her last 2 starts she has won here and lost by a nose at ScD. This post draw shouldn't hurt chances and can be in the mix if minds manners.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Speedy Dominic A (9/5)-Merriman takes the lines and drawing the rail should help this veteran. Could get the top and not look back, that's the most likely game plan. But will be a small price and can't completely trust.
7-Bettor Than Spring (6-1)-Davis Jr will have the pedal down and my thinking is this Kreiser trainee lands on the point or in the 2-hole. Sitting in the pocket behind the chalk might work and could wire the field if the start isn't bumpy. Either way should be a square price.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Bamboo (5-1)-The 2 below are veterans and have a class edge on this 4-year-old. But willing to use with the main foes starting outside and the Beachy trainee is in fine form. Steps up and there wasn't much Myers could do but finish 2nd in the last start on a bad track, actually the card was cancelled after that race. Has good gate speed and could be a trip out candidate at a price.
6-Winning Shadow (7-1)-Recent form is good and has won at this class. Needs a trip but does very well on this oval (99-44-24-10) and could surprise.
7-Eye Of A Tiger AS (4-1)-In the last 5 starts at this class this 9-year-old has posted 3 wins and two 2nd place finishes. Did win last week on the engine but can get the job done coming off a helmet as well.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

3-Light Blue Movers (6/5)-Broke stride multiple times in the last 2 starts, drops and Merriman steers here. That pilot re-qualified the Rhoades trainee on 6-1. It was a flat mile and won the race by >19 lengths in 154.1. Far from a lock but will include versus this bunch and should be bet if it's "go" time.
4-Inxs (6-1)-Has only posted 1 win in 10 starts here but should fit well and has been facing better. The Bendis barn has been clicking. Hall could leave and be forwardly placed throughout.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2/1,7/2,6,7/3,4
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #5

#6 Mom's Town	Think she has some appeal while starting her 3-year-old season on the turf, as she faced off with juvenile stakes company in her final two starts of the season last year, and I think the pedigree is really interesting for this turf route with the locals.
#2 Summer Day	She brings really reliable form to this, and she has some obvious upside potential after hitting the top and then hitting a wall off the bench last time out. Tighter here -- the one to beat.
#8 Cat Royale	While she has a claim on this one, I wouldn't want to be here with too much confidence given the way she has been coming up lacking late in her races so far this year. Think it's at least a little interesting that she stays at this turf trip while adding blinkers -- but they're also probably taking some of what they can get for Illinois-breds right now
Race Summary	Mom's Town has been hit or miss, but we might get a mildly playable price for a top barn while trying a trip that I think might suit her nicely here.

Hawthorne - Race #6

#3 Silver Chiller	He has been putting things together better in the last pair, and he'll get blinkers for this one in hopes it might keep him in the game just a touch better.
#8 Black Raven	On paper he looks like one of the ones after going evenly in the debut run in a pretty decent race, but it's worth noting he was only facing four that day and split that group without being a threat. Totally depends on the price here.
#7 Manta Rey	His on-again-off-again form pattern hints that he should be sitting on one of his better efforts, but I'm not sure I would want to be here if he starts taking some cash.
Race Summary	Silver Chiller might get just a touch overlooked in a spot where I'm hoping the other listed pair will command their share of cash. His pace should have him in the right spot turning for home.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#3 Groveland	Wouldn't argue a ton with anyone trying to beat this guy -- Harty rarely sends them here and has gone 5:2-1-1 with his local runners in the last couple years, landing a pair of $3.40 winners. He's going to be another short price from this team, but he's supposed to drill these, and I think he will.
#6 Slava Ukraini	Maybe his form is about to go the wrong way after he failed to back up the decent two-back turf effort, but his only local dirt route produced the best race of his career, and I think he might be able to run from a pressing spot if needed. Interesting enough.
#4 Blame Shifter	Honestly not too sure what to make of him in here while rising to meet winners, but I could be convinced if the price stays playable enough. Think he's heading in the right direction.
Race Summary	Groveland has faced much better in his last two, and his previous baseline effort should be more than enough to land this. Maybe Slava Ukraini adds a little spice at a price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:41 AM

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - June 18

Jun. 17, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	1	Best of Greeley	T Gaffalione
PLACE	2-1	2	Legal Deal	L Saez
SHOW	9-2	3	Noble Jon	G Corrales
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Herd Immunity	G Saez

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Crazy Legs Hirsch	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Firery Tale	O Mojica

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 ON A SPREE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	On a Spree	L Saez
PLACE	5-2	5	Beaver Hat	T Gaffalione
SHOW	7-2	2	Sugoi	J Rocco Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Summer Splash	R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	W W Crazy	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Tapage	J Loveberry

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #3 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 WHATS UP DOC

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	Whats Up Doc	G Saez
PLACE	5-2	2	Pledgeofallegiance	L Saez
SHOW	5-1	1	Dog Red	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Captain Jack	Y Navas

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Bold Looker	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Jewelstown	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	3	Theresasilverlinin	Y Navas
PLACE	3-1	4	Dandelion	A Beschizza
SHOW	5-1	2	Zippin Pippin	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Tamaras Way	G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Promisemeparadise	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Cee Minus	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #5 $54,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 MAC DADDY TOO

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Mac Daddy Too	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	4	Dont Wait Up	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	6	Holiday House	O Mojica
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Western Command	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Carbonite	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Sail At Sunrise	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #6 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	8	Cancel This	M Garcia
PLACE	9-2	3	Home Port	L Machado
SHOW	9-2	6	Little Mombo	F Geroux
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Devine Charger	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Scarlet Stripe	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Unsung Melody	R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #7 $225,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	3	Bad Beat Brian	C A Emigh
PLACE	12-1	1	Carotari	L Saez
SHOW	5-2	8	Nobals	G Corrales
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Yes I Am Free	E Jaramillo

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Charcoal	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Necker Island	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

RACE #8 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:11 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Wild Thinker	L Saez
PLACE	7-2	3	Le Bar	E Jaramillo
SHOW	4-1	8	Bandon	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	10	Mo Fight	R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Denier	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Texas Toast	C Hughes

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX

RACE #9 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Bling	R Bejarano
PLACE	4-1	10	Ardens Assault	L Saez
SHOW	7-2	2	Hay Stack	F Geroux
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Clever Joke	A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	7	La Tourista	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Sweets Maker	L Machado

* EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/10 BOX, 2/9/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:42 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - Jun 18

Jun. 17, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	4	Wine On Tap	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	20-1	3	Just the Oaks	J A Torres
SHOW	4-1	2	Ilikefunsize	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	9-5	5	Looks First	J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Devil At Midnight	S Bridgmohan

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #2 $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 VERONICA GREENE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1	Veronica Greene	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	6	For the Flag	M Franco
SHOW	2-1	4	By All Means	J Rosario
WILD CARD	8-5	7	Dancing Sophia	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	5-2	3	Pleasant Passage	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	7-5	8	Know It All Audrey	J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

RACE #3 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:07 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Norgay	J Castellano
PLACE	7-5	5	Ministerial	J R Velazquez
SHOW	20-1	3	Merchants of Cool	E Greenidge
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Midnight Worker	J A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Prince of Joy	J A Davis
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Super Quality	K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:38 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Tie Breaker	J L Ortiz
PLACE	3-1	5	Brennans War	J Castellano
SHOW	2-1	16	Uncle Marty	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Vaunted	J A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	14	Kid Emerald	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Impulsive Spending	J Laprida

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-16 BOX, 16-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/16 BOX, 5/6/16 BOX

RACE #5 $150,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	8	Twenty Six Black	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	11	Willintoriskitall	J L Ortiz
SHOW	7-2	4	Vacation Dance	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Gem Mint Ten	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Itsallcomintogetha	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Power Attack	J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 8-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/11 BOX, 4/5/11 BOX

RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:42 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 OLD POINT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Old Point	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-1	2	Steady Progress	D Davis
SHOW	8-5	5	Lucky Lucky Luke	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Sixwillberich	J A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Mister Moore	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Union Tap	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #7 $35,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	9	Stella Mars	J Rosario
PLACE	8-5	1	Home for Christmas	K Davis
SHOW	8-5	1A	Chasing Daylight	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Crowding Out	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Just a Nyquist	O Hernandez Moreno
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Raffinity	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/1/9 BOX, 1/1/6 BOX

RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	9	Stolen Future	D Davis
PLACE	6-1	10	Mz Big Bucks	J A Gomez
SHOW	5-1	8	Les Bon Temps	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Midtown Lights	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Red Moon	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Camp Akeela	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/10 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX

RACE #9 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 ALIBI IKE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Alibi Ike	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-2	7	Bold Honor	K Carmouche
SHOW	6-1	9	Brass Monkey	O Hernandez Moreno
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Grand Again	J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Hooey	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Runaway Road	J A Torres

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:42 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - June 18

Jun. 17, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [OC 62k/N2X, 1 mi TURF] – (4) By All Means was Group 3 placed in France before coming to America and joining the Clement barn. In her first start of the year, she was third in a stakes race at Gulfstream Park after getting badly blocked. She gets Lasix for the first time. (1) Veronica Greene has an allowance score between a pair of good stakes races for Chad Brown. (6) For the Flag has two front-end victories in two starts this year with improved speed figures and is projected to be on the lead again. (3) Pleasant Passage won her first two starts as a 2-year-old including the Miss Grillo (G2) and a second in the Breeders’ Cup. She was fifth in her 2023 debut in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland.
3^rd race [Clm 14000 N3L, 1 mi] – (3) Merchants of Cool (B) lost a shoe in the paddock and ran without it last time. (5) Ministerial made a huge improvement at Keeneland while moving off the artificial surface and fought off challenges to win a N2L for a $30,000 tag. (4) Norgay set the pace at Belmont last time for a $35,000 price and finished second. (1) Super Quality was claimed out of a bad performance in April by Linda Rice. He won the N2L condition in March by 10 lengths.
5^th race [NY, NY Stallion Series, 7F TURF] – (7) Itsallcomintogetha (C) broke his maiden in his second start of the year with a front-end effort while getting bet down from 10-1 to 5-1. (8) Twenty Six Black came back from one race last year at Saratoga when he was third to break his maiden and then romp in an allowance as the favorite in both victories. (6) Ramblin’ Wreck was second in a December version of this stakes race but on the dirt and come now makes his first start of 2023 for Danny Gargan who has great stats after long layoffs. (5) Gem Mint Ten ran his two best races after moving onto the grass with a maiden win and an allowance place finish.
6^th race [Md 20000, 1 mi] – (5) Lucky Lucky Luke drops out of NY-bred maiden special weights as a new gelding with speed figures that are better than the rest of the field. (2) Steady Progress was second last time at this level with five top three finishes. (4) Old Point made two starts since Linda Rice claimed him and improved to run third last time. (1) Sixwillberich drops down from a third in a $40,000 claimer back in February.
Best bets: By All Means (2^nd); Lucky Lucky Luke (6^th). Best value: Merchants of Cool (3^rd); Itsallcomintogetha (5^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Merchants of Cool	B on 5/28	3	Raced without a hind shoe in his first start of the year.
(7)	Itsallcomintogetha	C on 5/6	5	Front end winner going a mile on the grass.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:42 AM

Ellis Park Hotlist - June 18

Jun. 17, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (2) Legal Deal drops to a claiming level where he should prove best. (1) Best of Greeley could be tough to catch from the rail. (4) Herd Immunity should not be overlooked after the Sharp claim. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4.
3rd race – (2) Pledgeofallegiance was claimed for $50,000 last time after a big win. Can make it two in a row here. (1) Dog Red was claimed in his last two starts and looks dangerous here. (3) What’s Up Doc won easily last time and debuts here for Cash. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3.
5th race – (5) Mac Daddy Too (A) missed by a nose and should make amends here. (4) Don’t Wait Up has a nice turn of speed and may lead throughout. (6) Holiday House had some trouble last time and can bounce back here. (1) Carbonite will benefit from a rail trip. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-6.
7th race – (3) Bad Beat Brian was an impressive winner last time and can make it two in a row here. (9) Smokin’ Jay was a good second last time and should be the main rival. (8) Nobals can control the pace and may lead gate to wire. (4) Gear Jockey should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-8-9.
9th race – (2) Hay Stack didn’t fire last time but can rebound here with a big effort. (3) Bling was a game third and looks like the one to fear. (1) Bolivie will benefit from a ground-saving trip. (9) Clever Joke should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-9.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(5)	Mac Daddy Too	A, 5/19	5 EP	Missed by a nose last time

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Chippewa Downs

PURCHASE

Chippewa Downs - Race 4	$2 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $2 Trifecta($1 Box)
Optional Claiming $2,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $4,000 • Post: 2:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2022 - 2023 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $2,500 THAT HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. INAGOODWAY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INAGOODWAY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. FLAMING INDY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. SHARP CONTRAST: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. HIT IT UP: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner wit h an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.
1	INAGOODWAY	4/1	7/2
3	FLAMING INDY	8/5	6/1
4	SHARP CONTRAST	5/1	10/1
2	HIT IT UP	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SHARP CONTRAST	4	5/1	Front-runner	56	52	75.0	42.8	34.3
3	FLAMING INDY	3	8/5	Front-runner	65	48	73.5	47.6	42.1
6	HOT HABANERO	6	10/1	Front-runner	53	49	51.7	28.8	19.8
1	INAGOODWAY	1	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	74	65	78.0	57.6	54.1
2	HIT IT UP	2	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	67	58	0.0	49.4	41.9
7	FLYTA	7	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	79	53	57.8	50.6	44.1
5	MAYPOLE'SLASTDANCE	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	45	0.0	19.0	7.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax DownsPURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 12:55
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ONTARIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * QUEEN CHARLOTTE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TEE REX: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	QUEEN CHARLOTTE	8/5	2/1
4	TEE REX	2/1	3/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	TEE REX	4	2/1	Average	59	50	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	QUEEN CHARLOTTE	5	8/5	Average	70	59	5.1	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: RUN AWAY SUGARMAN (9/2) [Jockey: Desouza Lloyd - Trainer: Garrison Paul], A RUSHN LILLY (5/2) [Jockey: Jeschke Cassandra - Trainer: Bourgeois Chantelle], SHINE RUNNERR (3/1) [Jockey: Phillips Tony - Trainer: McCormack Amanda].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 63

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 18, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 ONE TOUGH CHARLIE 12/1
# 6 CARLOS PUNCH 5/2
# 8 DOUBLE PRIORITY 4/1

ONE TOUGH CHARLIE is the most respectable bet in this contest particularly if the morning line of 12/1 holds. With Medellin uptop him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this race. Could beat this group of animals given the 59 speed fig earned in his last outing. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. CARLOS PUNCH - He has been running strongly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this group. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the front end recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #9 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#8 MAGIC GAME (ML=3/1)
#5 ORGANIC (ML=4/1)
#4 GLACIER RIM (ML=30/1)

MAGIC GAME - Widely used handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. This filly is in good condition, having run a strong race on May 28th, finishing second. Ranked number 1 in earnings per race. Another confirmation that this animal has the class to take this race. ORGANIC - Drysdale drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to think this horse has a good chance at this level. Look for this one to go all the way at some decent odds today. Ran fifth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the end. Classic angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. This one is live today. GLACIER RIM - Using this jockey/trainer combination is a good decision. This horse comes out of a awesome barn for first timers. Garcia has a very strong ROI (+360 percent). First-timer has been working over this very track. I think that's a big plus in her favor. Gets help from Garcia with the addition of Lasix.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 IDESSIA (ML=5/2), #11 EXCLUSIVELY NOBLE (ML=6/1), #6 RUFF RIDE (ML=6/1),

IDESSIA - No favorable outcomes for this vulnerable equine in a short distance affair over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a tough spot EXCLUSIVELY NOBLE - Not the best 'situation' in this affair. RUFF RIDE - Hard to bet on a questionable contender that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the extended vacation.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 MAGIC GAME to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,5,8] with [4,5,8] with [1,4,5,8,11] with [1,4,5,8,11] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:51pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#2 TEXAS CLUBMAN (ML=2/1)
#9 SPARRA (ML=7/2)

TEXAS CLUBMAN - A repeat of that most recent effort on May 27th where he recorded a figure of 39 looks good enough to triumph in this race. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a vital handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked numero uno in this group. SPARRA - The jock and conditioner combination have a lucrative return on investment when they team up. Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a big performance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MORO BEARD (ML=9/2), #6 HOLIDAY HOAX (ML=5/1), #4 HOLIDAY RUN (ML=8/1),

MORO BEARD - Last performed on July 22nd at Lone Star Park, finishing eighth. Not likely to improve off of that try today. Today's contest is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance race in the last sixty days. Not the greatest of signals. HOLIDAY HOAX - Not a perfect 'spot' in this race. HOLIDAY RUN - Difficult to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much early zip in the race. I'd like to see more preferred recent efforts with morning line odds of 8/1. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a better speed rating than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 TEXAS CLUBMAN on top if we're getting at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-18-2023, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 18 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 2 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 MAKEITORBREAKIT 3/1
# 3 KNOPFLER 9/2
# 5 RACING RIVER 6/1

My pick for this event is MAKEITORBREAKIT. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a decent shot. Should definitely be carefully examined in this race if only for the respectable Equibase speed fig recorded in the last contest. One of the top win percentages between this rider and trainer make this gelding dangerous. KNOPFLER - Has run well when moving a dirt sprint race. Should be given a chance based on the decent Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last competition. RACING RIVER - He should definitely be considered given the decent speed numbers.