Monday 6/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:41 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 19, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race program to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 5, the sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 goes in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

1-Walkinshaw N (7/2)-This 11-year-old can dial it up from time to time and this is a spot to be dialed on high. Can leave with enough gusto to land in the pocket behind the one below and trip out.
3-Speed Man N (4-1)-Won at this level on 4-10 then faced Open company and took another picture. Has been close but hasn't connected since, and now drops. Joe B should be leaving versus this kind, could get the top and not look back.

Race 10

1-Arden Messi N (2-1)-Comes off a big try from the 8-hole on an off track to finish a close 2nd. Not liking the short price but this post draw could make a winning difference. Is somewhat camera shy but may have met a beatable field. Bartlett could get on the point and steal a quarter to post a win.
5-Traceur Hanover (4-1)-Ships in from Philly and the Burke trainee shouldn't blush at the competition. The 11-year-old still has big speed and if needed, could grind it out. Kakaley can put this veteran in position to rally down the lane at a fair price.

Race 11

2-Save Me A Dance (7/5)-Faded versus better at Philly, and lands at the level of his last win that came here on 1-24. This will be the 3rd start off the bench and 3rd start for Per Engblom. Could be in charge from start to finish and does well on this oval
(39-10-6-5).

Race 12

2-Hecandancencruise (4-1)-Drops and rolled the back half in .55 but was pace compromised on a sloppy track. Draws inside for the 1st time in quite a while and could be sitting on a big try if minds manners. The last race was better than the line looked considering the off-track record before that start was (5-0-0-1).
4-Sonny Weaver N (2-1)-Steps up after wiring the field at PcD and has beaten better here in the spring. Won't offer much value but is a main player and likes to win at Yonkers (13-7-0-2).

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,3/1,5/2/2,4
Total Bet=$8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#1 Dark Dahlia	She showed some pace going long in the local debut before flattening, but I like her a bit here while turning back around one turn, and I'm hoping something more like her Woodbine debut run would do the trick here.
#8 Magic Life	She's probably going to take some cash based on the running lines and the connections, and she gets a really good draw for her tactical running style. Wouldn't be any surprise.
#5 Ritaan	She hasn't done much wrong through two starts, but she has yet to really find that final gear in the lane to mount a serious challenge. Think she belongs on some of the deeper tickets.
Race Summary	Dark Dahlia has some route pace cutting back, and she ran well enough going one turn in the past to suggest she stacks up well here. Moderate worry about her trying to work out a trip from the fence.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#7 Folk Hero	Think she might be just a touch cheap for this bunch overall, but she's rising in good form and appears to be the most committed pace player. Think she can get dangerous here if she's allowed an easy lead.
#2 Merino Wool	She'll likely be the closest to the top choice in the early stages, and she should be able to get first jump on the logical finisher drawn just inside of her. Nothing wrong with her super honest form.
#1 Lovely Ever After	She's another with really reliable form outside of that stakes try, but I think she's going to give up the jump to the top pair into the far turn, and I worry she'll be just a bit overbet.
Race Summary	Folk Hero might get a bit overlooked in here while rising in class, but she has the likely controlling pace if she gets away cleanly, and maybe she gets brave at a mid-range price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#6 Get Along	Not sure you're supposed to be too excited about any of them in here, and that gives this guy a bit of appeal after an even effort here last time out. Think that sort of plodding style could play well in a race without much honest form?
#2 Legio	His inconsistent form is an issue, but he's at least bringing decent form from his last one which is more than most of these can say. Something like the last makes an impact.
#7 Jo Jo Hans	Tough to know what to do here after a couple of really forgettable efforts to kick off his 4-year-old campaign, but he owns several starts here from last season that would keep him in the mix. Your call -- price dependent.
Race Summary	Get Along isn't anything to look at on paper, but the price should be right after even after he turned in one of his better recent efforts last time out. In a race where I don't really trust any of them, maybe a one-paced kind of middling effort could land this?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:41 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#6 LAUGHINGSAINTSSONG (2-1)	Classy 9yo earning his keep at this level these days, meets statebreds.
#2 BIG BELLA BROWN (4-1)	Overhauled by repeat winner, could revert to off-the-pace tactics.
#4 GOLD MERRITT (3-1)	Went wire-to-wire in both starts at this distance, the latest here.
Race Summary	LAUGHINGSAINTSSONG is 5/2-2-0 in short sprints since February. He dueled 3-wide and just missed as the 1-to-5 favorite last out but can make amends today. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#2 DAISY DE ORO (6-1)	Has speed, can win from up-close in her second start on the lawn.
#11 BROADWAY PEARL (9-2)	Rallied for share in main-track sprints; dam won allowance on LaD turf.
#5 SHE’SMYSMOKESHOW (10-	Yet to run to fast workouts, adds blinkers, switches surfaces.
Race Summary	DAISY DE ORO awakened on the turf with an improved effort, setting the pace at one mile before the 2-to-5 favorite and others passed by. She can make good use of her speed on the cutback in distance today as the light-weight in the field. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-11 exacta box.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#1 TIO BLAS (9-2)	Met tiger the last time he ran on turf, won twice at this distance on lawn.
#2 MORE ICE (5-2)	Seven turf wins equals rest of field combined, in good form to go with it.
#4 MAGIC LIGHTNING (8-1)	Chased 6-1 pace controller at 7-1/2F and tired to finish third.
Race Summary	TIO BLAS found blinkers of little help, now he returns to turf in his third start for Broberg. He last raced on the grass at Canterbury Park last fall, notching an upset victory at 1-mile 40-yards, then getting beat 3-1/2 lengths by Big Foot City (14-42, $201k), who won six optional claiming races since then. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Claiming $20,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 2:45P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 4 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 19 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * CONTENTA Y RELAX: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DERRUMBE: Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KARINITA BELLA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dis tance/surface.
4	CONTENTA Y RELAX	2/1	3/1
1	DERRUMBE	3/1	4/1
2	KARINITA BELLA	5/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DERRUMBE	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	63	66.4	39.0	34.0
4	CONTENTA Y RELAX	4	2/1	Trailer	66	63	58.2	64.4	62.4
3	ZABRYNA	3	10/1	Trailer	36	30	33.9	23.0	15.5
2	KARINITA BELLA	2	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	64	60	46.4	31.0	25.0
5	AMERICA LATINA SOY	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe ParkPURCHASE

Arapahoe Park - Race 5	W/P/S / Exacta / Quinella /Trifecta / .10 Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $8,300 • Post: 2:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF THREE RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MANDONA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MANDONA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EYEJUST TOOKCHARGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	MANDONA	6/1	5/2
2	EYEJUST TOOKCHARGE	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MISS IZZY BEE	1	10/1	Front-runner	68	59	63.7	54.3	48.8
3	MANDONA	3	6/1	Stalker	72	66	67.4	61.6	57.1
4	MISCHIEVIOUSLANIE	4	9/2	Stalker	40	39	0.0	27.3	15.8
2	EYEJUST TOOKCHARGE	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	58	31.4	54.4	47.4
6	FLIPLIT	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	69	58	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	T R'S FIRST	5	5/2	Trailer	58	55	23.6	49.6	40.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 19, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FIRST AVENUE 5/2
# 8 MALIBU S S 5/1
# 2 LIONS NOT SHEEP 9/2

FIRST AVENUE looks to be a very good contender. Has run very well when racing a dirt sprint race. Guerra has a win percentage of 18 over the last 30 days. Ought to be considered - I like the figs from the last competition. MALIBU S S - Must be considered given the class of races run as of late. His 79 average has this colt with among the most favorable Equibase Speed Figs in here. LIONS NOT SHEEP - Win percentage one of the top in this field. With Green aboard him, this gelding will probably be able to break out quickly for this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #9 - Post: 7:23pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#3 HEART HEADED ARKY (ML=8/1)
#4 RING BEARER (ML=3/1)
#5 LOUD BOY (ML=5/2)

HEART HEADED ARKY - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. When this jockey and trainer partner up you have to take a look. Delacruz and Loy have been great together. Loy drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to think this thoroughbred should be one of the top contenders at this level. Loy seems to have this gelding primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is wonderful. You may want to throw out that last race at Oaklawn Park on a muddy track where he finished out of the top three. Should do well in this race without the off-track conditions. RING BEARER - Birzer was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Ran last time out against a high class rated field at Prairie Meadows. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a strong effort last out within the last thirty days. LOUD BOY - Taking a class drop in class rating points from his May 29th race at Prairie Meadows. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the advantage. Possibly a peak effort for this colt today. Been getting closer with each recent start. The recent speed rating of 56 is the top last race figure in the field. A pony coming back this promptly after a good contest is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 RIVERSPORT (ML=7/2), #6 SPEEDBAYOU (ML=4/1), #2 MEET GEORGE JETSON (ML=6/1),

RIVERSPORT - No accomplishments for this steed in a sprint race over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a thorny situation SPEEDBAYOU - The Brain tells me to stay away from horses in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in short distance events lately. This vulnerable equine hasn't been close to the winner at the finish of late. Substandard speed rating last time out at Prairie Meadows at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's event. MEET GEORGE JETSON - No early speed in this field to help set-up his closing kick.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 HEART HEADED ARKY is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4] Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SPARKLING SILVER 1/1
# 3 JUST A POSE 15/1
# 4 DOUBLEBARRELDELITE 4/1

I think SPARKLING SILVER is a respectable choice. She has to be given a shot given the solid speed figs. With a very good 60 speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. JUST A POSE - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the key to a turnaround. Posted a reliable speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. DOUBLEBARRELDELITE - In this field, this entrant is highly ranked earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Always tough to beat Nault and Chow working together, winning 25 percent of their races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-19-2023, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,100 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#6 IMA SURE BET (ML=9/2)

IMA SURE BET - Popular handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CARINA'S WAY (ML=5/2), #2 SAUNTER (ML=3/1), #1 KRISTIN (ML=7/2),

CARINA'S WAY - Not easy to bet on any entrant in a short distance event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months. SAUNTER - This filly recorded a speed rating in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. KRISTIN - This questionable contender didn't do too much last time out of the box finishing sixth. No reason to expect any betterment in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 IMA SURE BET to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass