Tuesday 6/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Royal Ascot Tips & Preview | Tuesday, June 20, 2023

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June 19, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
The Lineup

9:30 am ET | Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes
10:05 am ET | Group 2 Coventry Stakes
10:40 am ET | Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes
11:20 am ET | Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes
12:00 pm ET | Ascot Stakes Handicap
12:35 pm ET | Wolferton Stakes
1:10 pm ET | Copper Horse Stakes Handicap

The Incentive

Horseplayers utilizing the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy up to a $10 Money-Back Special on all races during the 2023 Royal Ascot meeting. If your win bet finishes second or third, you’ll receive up to $10 of your wager back in the form of wagering credits.

If you don’t have an Xpressbet account, sign up with promo code FAST100 to get a $100 bonus when you bet $500 within 30 days of sign up.

The Americans

While the Group 1 Queen Anne doesn’t have an American-based runner in the Royal Ascot opener, the presence of two-time Breeders’ Cup race winner Modern Games gives it a highly familiar feel. The 2021 Juvenile Turf and 2022 Mile winner is being pointed at a Mile title defense for Santa Anita this fall. The Charlie Appleby trainee was runner-up in Keeneland’s Maker’s Mark Mile this spring in his fourth North American foray, having also won the Woodbine Mile in Canada last September. As for the American-based reps on Tuesday at Royal Ascot, trainer Wesley Ward sends Fandom to the Coventry Stakes and Twilight Gleaming to the King’s Stand. The freshman colt Fandom debuted a winner at Keeneland by nearly 7 lengths in a turf sprint and is cross-entered Wednesday at Royal Ascot. Ward will make an eleventh-hour decision. Twilight Gleaming also exits a Keeneland turf sprint win in the Giant’s Causeway Stakes and has scored victories in 6 of 10 starts. The 4-year-old was runner-up in Royal Ascot’s Queen Mary in 2021.

The Main Event

Tuesday’s Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes drew nine 3-year-olds for the day’s fourth of seven races. The British bookmakers are bullish in the matchup between Chaldean, ridden by Frankie Dettori, and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Paddington with Ryan Moore up. English Two Thousand Guineas winner Chaldean has won five of seven starts as is by the legendary Frankel. Jockey Dettori has had recent success in this race with victories in 2016, 2018 and 2020. Paddington is the Irish Two Thousand Guineas hero and has tasted defeat just once in five tries, his debut at Ascot last September. O’Brien and Moore have had St. James’s Palace winning efforts in recent years, taking the 2015 and 2020 versions. Both Chaldean and Paddington are trading around 2-1 and 9-4 with the UK books.

The Tips

Here are the top picks in each race, courtesy of the UK’s At The Races Preview & Betting Guide handicappers.

Race 1 | #12 Inspiral
Race 2 | #3 Asadna
Race 3 | #12 Highfield Princess
Race 4 | #1 Chaldean
Race 5 | #5 Bring on the Night
Race 6 | #12 Poker Face
Race 7 | #7 Vauban

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 Pharoah's Song	She might have some excuses for the flatter efforts on her page, and a cozy trip might be waiting for her from the inside draw. Think there is enough upside here today.
#4 Maldives Model	She has a big claim on this one while going second off the bench, but I worry that her best recent work has come on the front end and that there are a lot of underneath shares at short prices on her page. The one to beat -- but wouldn't be at all surprised to see her lose here.
#5 Lenten Rose	She has to turn the tables on the mare drawn outside of her today, but she has the right kind of tactical pace to find a good spot into the far turn. Think she makes a lot of sense for a piece.
Race Summary	Pharoah's Song has run into a handful of tough customers over the last year, and she might get a bit better trip in this second start off the break while relaxing a bit off the speed.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#4 Twirling Mamba	He went to the bench in pretty dull form here last year, but he ran a handful of races last season that would be good enough to make some noise here, and I like that he fired fresh off the layoff in 2022. Better today?
#7 The Sinner is You	He drops another step for this one, and he might work out a really beautiful trip while settled in to spy three or four committed pace players. Capable with his best.
#10 Saint Goar	He has the tactical pace to avoid getting completely outrun here, but he can rate enough to let the pacesetters go at it early and give his rider some options from behind the splits. Wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	Twirling Mamba ran well here last year, and I think he's going to be in line for a pretty great trip just in behind the speed. Price might stay playable.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Broken Love	Obviously stretching a bit as this one heads into her 39th career start, but the price should be right with a potentially advantageous race shape waiting for her. She's one of the ones who can finish in here, and she can probably bring better than she showed last out while running third off the bench.
#6 Lady Areion	She'll get Lasix for this second trip to post, and I like that she flashed a decent bit of chasing pace in that debut run before flattening into the lane. That came with much better than she's going to find here, and it would make a lot of sense to see her stay on better from right up on the pace while chasing cheaper. She'll be on my tickets.
#11 You Looking At Me	She proved a good fit at the level last time out, but I have a mild worry that she might have to hustle just a bit from the high draw to avoid chasing, which typically leaves her with a poor end result.
Race Summary	Broken Love is way beyond any reasonable excuses after 38 lifetime starts, but she's lining up against several potential forward players, including a handful of them who drew outside and will have to hustle. Maybe she sits back early and gets past these at an improved price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #2

#8 BLUEBERRY PIE (5-2)	Has turf form but was in tight on turn and ‘edged up’ near 1/8th pole in latest.
#11 FINISHING TOUCH (8-1)	Enters good claim barn, but draws post 11 and has yet to run long.
#6 AFRICAN ANGEL (4-1)	Tries to carry-over decent main-track form to the lawn.
Race Summary	In a field of unproven turf routers, BLUEBERRY PIE broke her maiden at this level on the Parx turf and ran a troubled fourth last out in her seasonal debut at Pimlico. She lost momentum on the turn but ‘churned on’ in a longer grass test. Bet to win and place and play a 6-8-11 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #5

#3 TRIPLE AMERICANO (10-1)	Right set-up, right price on class drop, use in all gimmick wagers.
#4 LOOKIN BACK LUCKY (2-1)	Might be no looking back on class drop, but not worth favoritism.
#8 DANCIN IN DUBAI (3-1)	Improved position while 5- and 6-wide in last two sprints at Penn National.
Race Summary	TRIPLE AMERICANO rallied for third behind the pace-setting favorite around two turns at Charles Town, then was outrun at Parx by a pair of winners who ran 1-2 recently in a $12,500/nw3 claiming sprint. He gets plenty of pace to make a run at an upset victory. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #7

#1 DESI’S REWARD (4-1)	Straightened out in deep stretch, closed with a rush to just miss on class drop.
#3 GUSSIE’S NOTION (9-2)	Should lead for as far as she goes in first start for a tag.
#6 ROSE VALLEY (2-1)	Tracked dueling leaders, bid 4-wide, no match for late kick of 5-to-2 winner.
Race Summary	DESI’S REWARD lugged entering the stretch, angled out at the 1/8th pole and ran a scare into the 1-to-5 winner. She takes on Pennsylvania-bred fillies for her new connections and can cash in for a higher claiming tag. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 2	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-5)/ Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 1:07P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 20. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. EMPIRE'S SCORE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ENRAGED: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EMP IRE'S SCORE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SAMURAI SAINT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SOUPER FLY OVER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	ENRAGED	8/5	9/2
3	EMPIRE'S SCORE	6/1	6/1
2	SAMURAI SAINT	9/2	6/1
4	SOUPER FLY OVER	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	EMPIRE'S SCORE	3	6/1	Front-runner	76	71	81.8	62.2	54.2
6	ENRAGED	6	8/5	Trailer	80	89	62.6	81.0	78.0
2	SAMURAI SAINT	2	9/2	Trailer	90	82	50.4	68.8	61.8
4	SOUPER FLY OVER	4	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	72	48.2	70.8	65.3
5	ILLUSTRIOUS	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	71	61.6	54.0	43.5
1	TACTICAL PLAN	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	64	39.4	63.6	55.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 3:01P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * WISHY WASHY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SMILE LIKE KYLE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. MUSTY RED: Horse ranks i n the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAN'T SAY ELLY MAE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
7	WISHY WASHY	6/1	3/1
5	SMILE LIKE KYLE	6/1	9/1
3	MUSTY RED	5/2	9/1
1	CAN'T SAY ELLY MAE	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	BUMPY	4	8/1	Front-runner	63	54	67.6	49.8	39.8
5	SMILE LIKE KYLE	5	6/1	Front-runner	68	58	51.0	60.8	51.8
1	CAN'T SAY ELLY MAE	1	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	66	61	56.0	62.0	53.5
2	MIKIE O'PRADO	2	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	65	67	42.6	53.2	42.7
7	WISHY WASHY	7	6/1	Trailer	77	73	40.2	68.0	64.0
3	MUSTY RED	3	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	72	72	40.0	56.8	49.8
6	MACHO JUSTICE	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	59	64.2	55.0	47.0
8	GO EARLY STAY LATE	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	57	43.0	44.2	31.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7800 Class Rating: 66

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 SOUPER PRONTO 8/1
# 1 BEAR'S ESTATE 5/1
# 9 BORN FOR VICTORY 5/1

I think SOUPER PRONTO is a quite good selection and could score at a price in here. A solid 76 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this field. Spiess has this gelding racing well and is a solid selection based on the quite good Equibase speed figs posted in sprint races lately. The Equibase speed fig of 51 from his latest contest looks decent in here. BORN FOR VICTORY - The average class figure of 58 makes this entrant difficult to beat. At the top in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:00pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#3 SAILOR'S SALUTE (ML=6/1)
#4 R GIRL FAITH (ML=3/1)
#2 CAPTAIN COURTNEY (ML=7/5)


SAILOR'S SALUTE - Rozantz has this mare entered in the ideal contest. R GIRL FAITH - Lots of positive 'sensations' connected with this thoroughbred and her connections. CAPTAIN COURTNEY - Jock jumped on this filly's back for the initial time on May 30th. Should know the horse even better in today's contest. I am keen on that most recent effort on May 30th at Parx Racing where she ran first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 VACCINA (ML=7/2), #1 OMIKAMI (ML=9/2), #6 PROTECTTHEWITNESS (ML=6/1),

VACCINA - Tough to put any dough on this filly on the top end. Likes to finish in the money though. OMIKAMI - If she goes off at the morning line odds of 9/2, I'll have to pass. PROTECTTHEWITNESS - Hard to wager on at 6/1 odds after the last two efforts. Equibase speed figs of 65/55/39 are pointed on a downward course. This filly notched a speed rating in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CAPTAIN COURTNEY - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are utmost in the field in earnings per start.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 SAILOR'S SALUTE to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13200 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 20, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BYE Y'ALL 4/5
# 1 KIM'S TEXAS BLING 3/1
# 4 GOLD DIGGIN DARLIN 4/1

I've got to go with BYE Y'ALL. Sound average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this horse a solid contender. Has formidable front speed and will most likely fare admirably versus this group. Has to be given a shot in this event if only for the formidable speed rating garnered in the last contest. KIM'S TEXAS BLING - With a reliable jock who has won at a decent 17 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Is a definite contender - given the 69 speed fig from her most recent race. GOLD DIGGIN DARLIN - Has decent front-end speed and will probably fare solidly versus this group. Difficult to pass on this mare with Whitehall in the irons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,900 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#2 WILDCAT BILL (ML=2/1)


WILDCAT BILL - This gelding is in nice form. Ran second on May 25th. He has the top (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this thoroughbred.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WILDCAT EXPRESS (ML=9/5), #6 GIV'EM THE BIZ (ML=3/1), #1 COUNTRY RUCKUS (ML=9/2),

WILDCAT EXPRESS - Hasn't raced or had any morning activity since May 20th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. Going to have a hard go of it with all of the other early lick in this race. GIV'EM THE BIZ - This pony has been letting down the bettors as the favorite time and time again. You always think this equine has a shot to be the victor, but he falls short often. Should be difficult for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. COUNTRY RUCKUS - Going to have a tough go of it with all of the other front-runners in this affair. This gelding hasn't had any recent good fortune in sprint events. I find it hard to bet on him in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 WILDCAT BILL to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass