Wednesday 6/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:38 AM

Royal Ascot Tips & Preview | Wednesday, June 21, 2023

June 20, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
The Lineup

9:30 am ET | Queen Mary Stakes
10:05 am ET | Queen’s Vase
10:40 am ET | Duke of Cambridge Stakes
11:20 am ET | Prince of Wales’s Stakes
12:00 pm ET | Royal Hunt Cup
12:35 pm ET | Windsor Castle Stakes
1:10 pm ET | Kensington Palace Stakes

The Incentive

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If you don’t have an Xpressbet account, sign up with promo code FAST100 to get a $100 bonus when you bet $500 within 30 days of sign up.

The Americans

The Queen Mary opens the festivities and there’s immediate US interests in this Group 2 five-furlong dash for the juveniles, namely Bundchen (Wesley Ward/Joel Rosario), Crimson Advocate (George Weaver/John Velazquez), Cynane (Tom Morley/Javier Castellano). Bundchen was a Keeneland debut runner-up on dirt by Gun Runner; Crimson Beach earned the automatic berth in Gulfstream Park’s grassy Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies; and Cynane was a cozy turf sprint first-out winner at Belmont by Omaha Beach. The featured Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes includes longshot American hopeful Classic Causeway, the Kenny McPeek trainee who has lost seven straight since winning the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational on grass last July. Finally, Wesley Ward cross-entered Fandom Tuesday and Wednesday, and opted to run that one in the initial offering; expect a scratch Wednesday in the Windsor Castle Stakes.

The Main Event

Wednesday’s fourth race will be the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over a mile and one-quarter. Six have entered, and it’s another round of the Godolphin-Coolmore rivalry as Adayar and Luxembourg are expected to vie for favoritism. The lightly raced Adayar won his only start this year after rounding out 2022 with a runner-up in the Qipco Champions Stakes, just ahead of Wednesday return rival My Prospero. Luxembourg trainer Aidan O’Brien has a trio of victories this decade in the Prince of Wales’s, most recently with Love in 2021. Familiar yards are in the mix beyond the chalks as John & Thady Gosden, who captured this race in 2014 and 2020 in recent years, will send out Mostahdaf. Sir Michael Stoute counters with Bay Bridge after having won recent vintages here in 2018-’19. Bay Bridge and Luxembourg finished a half-length apart in the May 28 Group 1 Tattersall’s Gold Cup. The British books are trading both Adayar and Luxembourg between 2-1 and 9-4.

The Tips

Here are the top picks in each race, courtesy of the UK’s At The Races betting guide handicappers.

Race 1 | #3 Beautiful Diamond
Race 2 | #16 Lady Eros
Race 3 | #4 Jumbly
Race 4 | #4 Luxembourg
Race 5 | #21 Perotto
Race 6 | #5 Gregory
Race 7 | #12 Johannes Brahms

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:38 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #1

#6 Good Mongolia	Wonder if she might be able to pull a mild upset on the one drawn outside of her, as she stretches out with what should be speed or perfect pressing pace. Think she's a pretty snug fit here.
#7 Beyond Proper	She's supposed to win this on overall form, but she's dropping in for a tag after a very dull end to her last campaign and is probably going to get overbet with these. Tough call.
#4 Embarrassing	She goes second off the layoff today after a modest comeback last out, but her grinding one-paced style might play well enough to land her a share at a price.
Race Summary	Good Mongolia should get a perfect run right up on the splits here, but I'd want a playable mid-range price with some questionable turf routes on her page.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#5 I Owe Uncle Mo	Really liked that easy debut score on the main track, and her mom thrived on the turf in her racing days. Guessing the new footing isn't going to be an issue, and she looks like she has a bit of high-upside potential today.
#4 Wanda Strong	Her turf form looks solid when isolated from some of those dull dirt runs on her page, and she's a threat to land this if she can hold form for another start.
#2 Journeyist	She has a little versatility in her running style, and she proved competitive with the locals going long on the turf last time out and makes sense for a piece right back.
Race Summary	I Owe Uncle Mo probably isn't going to offer the 5/1 ML price, as I think her upside potential is pretty clear today off the sharp debut, and she's tough right back with winners if she moves up at all on the lawn like I think she will.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#7 Gun Rush	Wild how good this guy has been through his last few compared to some of his past form, and I'm going to ride this streak with him until he can't sustain the form. Dangerous and versatile player again.
#3 Moment	He's the one to beat as he goes for his fifth straight win, and he has the same kind of menacing pressing pace and ability to rate that the top choice does. Think one of these two will land it.
#6 Pinedale	He's not a bad fit with these, and he's one of the more honest finishers who would benefit if a few of the forward players were to snag each other early on. I think he'll be too late, but he wouldn't be a major shock.
Race Summary	Gun Rush has run off three very easy wins since showing up locally this spring, and he should be in line for another perfect trip while right up close early. He has answered a couple recent class questions without any trouble -- think he can do it again.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 SIR SMOAK (6-1)	Fits at this level, draws well, fresh start should serve him well.
#7 I KNOW YOU LOVE ME (7-2)	Plunges for first start as a 3-year-old, won at one mile.
#5 BIG ROWDY DAN (5-2)	Sprung maiden shocker at Tampa, duplicate makes him tough.
Race Summary	SIR SMOAK got a needed break after racing four times in 19 days. He’s 0-5 at this distance, but rallied for three seconds in his last five sprints, draws the rail and offers better odds than usual. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#4 GENERAL’S DUTY (3-1)	Useful return against better, goes well in here with a clean trip.
#7 NOBLE FISH (8-1)	Impressed at Tampa, had excuse in latest, switches to the lawn.
#3 ALVY (3-1)	Failed at odds-on in repeat bid, makes turf debut for new connections.
Race Summary	GENERAL’S DUTY raced evenly in a fast-paced turf mile at Belmont to begin his 4-year-old campaign. But he warrants a second look off his form last fall in Maryland. He rallied from far back to break his maiden at Laurel Park, then was steadied most of the backstretch but finished willingly while wide in a $40k claimer at Pimlico. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-7 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#3 TINY TIN (2-1)	Won going away twice for higher tags last year, had tune-up, picks up 7 pounds.
#8 COSMIC TREASURE (8-5)	Carried speed to two wins in last eight starts – all as the favorite.
#2 WHATA GUY (7-2)	Took ‘command’ near 1/8th pole but got caught by troubled longshot.
Race Summary	TINY TIN gets needed class relief, ample pace to rally into and is reunited with Mena, who coaxed two easy wins out of him last year at Delaware Park. He likely will have favored COSMIC TREASURE to run down. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 6	$1 SUPER HI 5 / LATE DAILY DOUBLE (Races 6-7) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR EXACTOR
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 9:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MY NOAH: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. JEFF FA FA: Tod ay is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. CALL THE COPS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. I LOVE MY LIFE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BEARLY REGAL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	MY NOAH	3/1	6/1
2	JEFF FA FA	2/1	6/1
1	CALL THE COPS	10/1	7/1
7	I LOVE MY LIFE	5/1	8/1
6	BEARLY REGAL	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BETTERMAKETHATTWO	5	4/1	Front-runner	72	66	88.1	56.6	44.6
1	CALL THE COPS	1	10/1	Front-runner	76	74	76.0	66.6	59.1
4	PRAIRIE DRIFTER	4	12/1	Front-runner	68	70	75.6	61.0	50.0
3	MY NOAH	3	3/1	Front-runner	80	74	69.4	73.4	66.9
2	JEFF FA FA	2	2/1	Front-runner	72	78	67.0	67.4	63.4
7	I LOVE MY LIFE	7	5/1	Stalker	71	64	72.8	64.9	58.9
6	BEARLY REGAL	6	8/1	Stalker	73	67	72.1	64.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury All Turf Pick 3PURCHASE

Canterbury All Turf Pick 3 - Race 2	Leg B of the All-Turf Pick 3
Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 101 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 7:42P
LADY CANTERBURY S. CBY - R6 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SHE CAN'T SING: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equ ibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAKNTOTHECLEANERS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LADY HIDEAWAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MOUFFY: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
3	SHE CAN'T SING	9/5	3/1
7	TAKNTOTHECLEANERS	10/1	8/1
4	LADY HIDEAWAY	12/1	9/1
10	MOUFFY	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	TAKNTOTHECLEANERS	7	10/1	Front-runner	96	99	88.6	91.8	83.3
5	REGAL REALM	5	3/1	Front-runner	95	94	82.9	84.9	74.4
6	MEDALLA MATCH	6	15/1	Front-runner	92	86	74.0	90.8	78.8
4	LADY HIDEAWAY	4	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	95	89	76.6	93.0	87.0
10	MOUFFY	10	8/1	Stalker	89	93	89.1	89.1	74.1
1	SCENT OF SUCCESS	1	12/1	Stalker	91	88	80.7	87.2	75.7
2	MIDNIGHT CURRENT	2	6/1	Stalker	91	90	70.6	87.0	74.5
3	SHE CAN'T SING	3	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	102	95	86.4	101.2	98.2
8	LET'S SKEDADDLE	8	12/1	Trailer	91	90	64.8	86.8	74.3
9	FOUNDER'S DAY	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	86	62.0	79.8	65.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury All Turf Pick 5

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 95

CURTIS SAMPSON OAKS CBY - R4 - FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF 6/1
# 4 FLASHY GEM 8/5
# 3 ROYAL LAUGHTER 15/1

My choice for this race is KNOCKYOURSOCKSOFF. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me lean toward this filly. Could best this group of horses based on the speed figure - 91 - of her last contest. Is a solid contender based on numbers garnered lately under today's conditions. FLASHY GEM - Looks solid for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid numbers in turf route races recently. Ran a strong last race. ROYAL LAUGHTER - Bettors ought to note that this pony runs now going off Lasix today. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25800 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 JOHN'S PROTEGE 9/5
# 5 LIEUTENANT SAM 6/1
# 6 SUPERB SURPRISE 5/2

JOHN'S PROTEGE looks to be a very good contender. He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this field. Had one of the most respectable Equibase speed figs of this group in his last contest. A solid 85 avg class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group. LIEUTENANT SAM - Trainer has solid win rate (24 percent) at this distance and surface. Win percentage with this rider and trainer combo - 33 percent - formidable. SUPERB SURPRISE - Garnered a very good speed figure last time out. He has put up decent figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-21-2023, 05:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,400 Class Rating: 43

Rating:

#1 BACOPA BAY (ML=4/1)
#4 PATTI LOU (ML=9/5)

BACOPA BAY - This rider and trainer have a high winning percent together. Looking at the past performances on all of these thoroughbreds, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this horse. This filly is tops in earnings per start. Check out this animal before the race. Dropping 5 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. PATTI LOU - Faced tougher last out at Thistledown. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders. This filly is in nice form. Finished second on Jun 5th. Just see her latest speed fig, 43. That one fits in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BUSYBEING FABULOUS (ML=2/1), #2 LADYBUGGIN (ML=7/2),

BUSYBEING FABULOUS - This horse likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't play in the top spot. This less than sharp equine ran a substandard fig last race out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that figure. LADYBUGGIN - This less than sharp equine ran a run-of-the-mill fig last time out. She shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that number.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BACOPA BAY - When a horse takes such a big drop in the class rating department, I always have a look. I like what I see with this one and am betting on her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 BACOPA BAY to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Wednesday 6/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 6/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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