Friday 6/30/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:03 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Pick 3 Analysis

June 30, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a loaded 12-race card with four big stake races. The headliners are the MGM Messenger Stakes Final with a $250,000 purse and the MGM Yonkers Trot with a $300,000 purse. The Pick 3 sequence below starts in Race 6.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6-Park MGM Filly Pace Mile (8:40 PM EST)

2-Ucandoit Blue Chip (3-1)-Doesn't have much short track experience but looked sharp in her YR debut last week. Toscano pupil likes to win and is a main threat to double up.
3-Lisa Lane (10-1)-Got the pocket versus the choice and was game to the wire losing by a neck. Could get a similar journey either behind the one above or below and this time take full advantage of an efficient trip.
5-EarthWindFire (8/5)-Will respect this filly and the Pelling-Tetrick combo. Has won all 3 starts this year and was a strong odds-on choice in all of them. Also is a perfect 2 for 2 here but not liking the short price and could be tested tonight.

Race 7-Messenger Stakes Final at 1 1/16 mile (9:00 PM EST)

4-American Fling (5-1)-Bartlett could have the pedal down and land on the point. Does well in general on smaller ovals and won his only start here. Looking for a big try at a square price and the added distance shouldn't hurt chances.
5-Captain Batboy (9/2)-Won here on 6-13 in a 152.2 on the engine and had something left. Comes off a 149.3 tune-up at M1 on 6-24. Usually finishes off miles with a solid last quarter and the added distance could help. Looks ready for a top performance and will give a slight edge over the one above.

Race 8-Yonkers Trot Final (9:20 PM EST)

2-Up Your Deo (3-1)-Comes off a very impressive win in the Elimination with Ake Svanstedt at the controls off a tough trip. Left but took a few bad steps, broke and immediately got back on stride. Raced wide into the opening turn and was wrestled back into a hole. Then was used to gain position on the backside before rallying around the last turn and catching the leader at the wire. Looks like a powerful yet handy colt that has a big brush and could be used more than once. Won't be 1/9 tonight but 3-1 doesn't seem to be in the cards. Should be difficult to beat with a decent trip.

$5.00 Pick 3

2,3,5/4,5/2
Total Bet=$30

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:03 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Ellis Park Stakes Analysis | Saturday, July 1, 2023

June 30, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Six stakes races, including the Grade 1 $1 million Stephen Foster, crowd the docket Saturday at Ellis Park. The typical Churchill Downs fixtures are spread across the 11-race program that begins at 12:45 pm ET. The American Derby goes as Race 3, the Kelly’s Landing as Race 6, and all leading to an all-stakes late pick 4 in Races 8-11. As for the preliminaries, I’ll give long win looks to the likes of #2 Wadsworth in Race 3 and #1 Fortin Hill in Race 6.

As for the all-stakes pick 4, let’s get to work.

Ellis Park | Race 8 | Grade 2 $400,000 Fleur De Lis Stakes

There’s such little early speed in this race to help the late-running #5 Pauline’s Pearl that you have to take a stand against her while in sub-par form for her talents. #6 A Mo Reay wants to beat you; she’s a dogged competitor. If she gets alongside whoever sets the pace, it’s probably game over. #7 Heartyconstitution probably can make the lead if Tyler Gaffalione can get her back to her Summer ’22 running style, but that’s not a given.

Ellis Park | Race 9 | Grade 2 $400,000 Wise Dan Stakes

#4 Get Smokin’ is elite turf speed and was just unable to hold off #8 Set Piece in the Arlington at Churchill Down over this same distance. The presence of #9 Stitched with some early pressure, and potentially #10 Hozier (from a must-fire early draw), should ratchet up the heat. #2 Tut’s Revenge could flash some early exiting dirt sprints. That scenario makes it highly likely that #8 Set Piece will have even more of a pace target and increases his likelihood of victory in the re-match. Hate to say it, but it looks like a pair of short-priced Brad Cox favorites to start this pick 4. Perhaps 2X course winner #5 Play Action Pass gets a look moving back to Gaffalione and with some pace versatility.

Ellis Park | Race 10 | Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes

#5 Smile Happy could not have looked better in winning the Grade 2 Alysheba over a field arguably equal in quality to this one. His pace versatility will come in quite handy in a race where #6 West Will Power will be the target and pressers like #2 Stilleto Boy and #3 Speed Bias are drawn inside West Will Power with the chance to make this difficult. Tons of respect for West Will Power as well as late-runners #1 Proxy and #4 Rattle N Roll, but I’m riding with Smile Happy and going to keep this a very focused ticket. Also look strongly at the daily double with Smile Happy to the picks in the finale, a wager that won’t require you to sweat out two short-priced favorites previously to cash. I’m far more interested in the double than the pick four.

Ellis Park | Race 8 | $225,000 Tepin Stakes

The 3-year-old filly turf milers wrap the card. #4 Wonderful Lady was a miler in France and may have a better kick Saturday than in her two US starts going longer since her arrival. She will need some pace help, but could get it with #3 Heavenly Sunday, who looks solid on paper, likely to get some up front company. #6 Metaphysical was very competitive in the strong Gulfstream winter turf program. Her runner-up at Penn National last time saw Pletcher and Brown trainees in her rearview mirror, so it’s better than it may seem.

The Ticket
6 with 8 with 5 with 4,3,6 = $1.50 for $.50 play

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:03 AM

Tampa Bay Pick 4 Ticket | Friday, June 30

June 30, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
TAMPA BAY DOWNS PICK 4
Friday, June 30

Tampa Bay Down’s will host its 10th Summer Festival of Racing this weekend. The Friday, June 30 card, will feature a 50-cent Late Pick with three maiden turf races in the sequence. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $36 play:

TAM 5th race (1:33 EST) -- HASN’T HAD ENOUGH, now 5 years old, has had only two starts in his career. But he at least met four rivals who earned $97,000-plus in their careers when he debuted on the Tampa Bay lawn in 2022 and ran evenly in a 5F turf sprint 15 months later that produced three next-out winners. He gets blinkers and is the top play in here. BOY O’BOY gets Lasix and gets in light-weighted for his first route attempt. He finished in the money in 3 of 4 sprints at Gulfstream, including a 5F grass test when he rallied for third, behind 2-1 firster Souper Quest and ahead of a next-out maiden $50k winner. LEFT ON BOYLESTON, idle nine months, has turf route experience, a third-place finish at Belmont and a race at Saratoga that yielded three next-out runners-up with an average 69 Beyer.

TAM 6th race (2:04 EST) -- Hard to look past favorite POSEIDON’S SON in this spot. He was ‘inconvenienced at the start’ of a $6,250 claiming race at Gulfstream Park, losing all chance against the likes of Rebelde, a winner of his last four starts (average 76 Beyer) and Rhymes Like Dimes, the class-dropping 9-to-5 runner-up. He finished willingly and should run past this field as today’s Pick 4 solo play.

TAM 7th race (2:33 EST) -- CHRIS’S MOTOWN GIRL ‘improved late’ to finish second in a debut sprint that produced 0-for-7 follow-ups, then dueled a long way and tired at 6F. She gets Lasix for her turf debut and is a must use on the ticket, but she will be an underlay as the likely favorite. If RAGGEDY draws into the race off the also-eligible list, she looms the one to beat. She worked fast for her new barn and finished between two next-out winners in a race won by a Saffie Joseph-trained favorite. LILY OF WICKLOW is a longshot to consider. She shows three bullet workouts since May and her dam was 22/2-6-8 and Grade III-placed.

TAM 8th race (3:03 EST) – Somebody has to win in this $16,000 maiden claimer at one mile, but rather than sort out a field that is a combined 0-for-48 overall and 12/0-0-1 on turf, hit the ‘ALL’ button in the Pick 4.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket
TAM 5th Race: 3, 4, 6
TAM 6th Race: 2
TAM 7th Race: 5, 8, 9
TAM 8th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:04 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #6

#7 Treasurer	He might offer a playable enough price, and he figures in line for a great trip right up near the top in a race with a few potential players lined up to battle early. He might get the perfect first-jump run.
#8 Grumpy's Buddy	He's probably the one to beat in here and would benefit if a few of the forward players really hooked up early, but I wouldn't want to be here if the price got too short with a set of recent running lines that could leave him underneath again.
#4 Gatto Be Proud	He has a little tactical pace and might be able to give his rider a couple options as far as where to place him early on. Honest type figures to be there for a piece of this at least.
Race Summary	Treasurer might find himself in a perfect spot with a mild ability to rate just off the splits, and his local form has been pretty solid so far through those last two starts. Wouldn't be a surprise here.

Charles Town - Race #7

#8 Kenny Had a Notion	His local form has been decent enough to think he has some bounce-back potential after trying better in Maryland. One of his better tries might do.
#9 Alpha Chi Rho	Not sure which guy is going to show up after the modest run at 7/5 last time out, but he has always been an inconsistent type, so make sure you build that into whatever price you're willing to take here.
#7 Rocket Appeal	He has not historically been very good around two turns, but he landed a nice score last time out and might get another good first-over trip today. Some price hope for a piece.
Race Summary	Kenny Had a Notion looks interesting enough if he offers a mid-range price nearing post time, as he might find himself in a decent spying spot early while appreciating the return with the locals.

Charles Town - Race #8

#4 Showthemoneyhoney	She took a nice step forward to graduate last out in that first start for the new team, and I think this is a reasonable enough spot to come back to try winners. Not totally overmatched today.
#7 Amelia's Dream	She got a chance with better off the romping graduation win and claim, and she's back at a better level today to hope for something better. Capable if she bounces back.
#9 Appealing Road	She has pretty honest form but might be a little overbet here coming off the decent try at 27/1 last out, but it still feels like she makes more sense underneath for me, so I'd probably want a better price than she's going to offer to take the leap today.
Race Summary	Showthemoneyhoney has only been around two turns here once in the past -- it did not go well -- but she looked decent for the level in the win last time out and might get a perfect trip near the top.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#7 FORTY COMETS (8-5)	On pace for $100k season as 5yo, can’t go beyond in this spot.
#6 SPITBALL (6-1)	Steady check-getter at various distances but doesn’t win often.
#1 DIALING DIXIE (3-1)	Has speed and rail and 9/4-3-0 record in short sprints in the past year.
Race Summary	FORTY COMETS won 3 of his last 6 starts by a combined 16-1/4 lengths at Parx. He lost a fourth race by a head, then dueled and tired against the likes of Geebert (13-47, $383k) and Friar Tuck (4-14, $128k). Bet to win and place and play 7-1 and 7-6 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#10 CIRCLE HOME (4-1)	‘Closed nicely’ in return, missed in photo finish for high percentage tandem.
#2 NINETEENAMENDMENT (5-1)	Fractious pre-race, took serious money, dueled and held second.
#9 UP FOR IT (2-1)	Rallied for share in all three starts on the grass, the latest against well-meant firster.
Race Summary	CIRCLE HOME worked fast for her return from and 11-month layoff, then ‘tracked patiently’ and rallied wide to finish second for her new connections. She draws outside and wears blinkers for the first time. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#3 WINGIN AND SINGIN (6-1)	Showing promise in the mornings; dam was 12/2-5-2 and $114k earner.
#1 DELEGATED (4-1)	Blinkers haven’t help troubled starting habit, runs for cheapest tag yet.
#4 MUDVILLE NINE (7-2)	Lone long sprint try on dirt makes him major player on class drop.
Race Summary	WINGIN AND SINGIN breezed a 48-second bullet from the gate in his final prep for his debut. First-year trainer Phillip Capuano has excelled with first-time starters, so he’s worth a win and place bet in a deep field for a $20,000 maiden claimer.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:04 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 6	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 cent PICK 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10) $1.00 JACKPOT SUPER HIGH 5
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 70 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 2:48P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. INFINITE SERIES is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INFINITE SERIES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three i n average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MONEY ROOM: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a spr int and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
6	INFINITE SERIES	5/1	5/2
9	MONEY ROOM	6/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	INFINITE SERIES	6	5/1	Front-runner	78	68	62.0	64.9	60.9
9	MONEY ROOM	9	6/1	Trailer	79	81	49.8	72.0	65.5
1	DELEGATED	1	4/1	Trailer	72	67	48.4	62.0	56.0
5	HOME SCHOOL	5	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	68	57.2	54.0	46.0
4	MUDVILLE NINE	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	86	66	74.5	36.0	30.0
8	THE LAST JUMPSTART	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	26.5	38.9	27.4

Unknown Running Style: SWEET SYNTAX (6/1) [Jockey: Perez Xavier - Trainer: Robb John J], WINGIN AND SINGIN (6/1) [Jockey: Lopez Carlos Eduardo - Trainer: Capuano Phillip], GRANVILLE'S GARDEN (15/1) [Jockey: Marquez Charlie - Trainer: Keefe Timothy L]

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:04 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair MeadowsPURCHASE

Fair Meadows - Race 10	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 51 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 9:45P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * BARRABAS JESS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase C lass Rating at the distance/surface.
9	BARRABAS JESS	3/1	3/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JESS DESERT ROSE	1	6/1	Slow	50	26	6.5	0.0	0.0
3	EVES MAGIC BUG	3	7/2	Average	0	0	6.0	0.0	0.0
4	PASSING ETHICS	4	6/1	Average	0	0	5.1	0.0	0.0
6	TRACK ROYALTY	6	20/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	9.3	0.0	0.0
7	SWEET ENIGMA	7	4/1	Slow	0	0	6.9	0.0	0.0
8	ROLL ON CORONA	8	20/1	Slow	0	0	8.4	0.0	0.0
9	BARRABAS JESS	9	3/1	Slow	62	41	7.7	0.0	0.0
10	JTS CLASSIC WAGON	10	15/1	Slow	0	0	9.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: SEE ME DOING (12/1) [Jockey: Goff Jr B L - Trainer: Rodriguez Marti L], JTC DUTCH N MEXICO (12/1) [Jockey: Benn Cordarelton J - Trainer: Remington Ty].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:04 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Retama Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Stakes - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 106

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, SAN MARCOS S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $250 TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $250 TO START. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS IN THE AMOUNT OF $1,000 MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. THE $40,000 ADDED AND ALL FEES ARE TO BE PAID OUT 60% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 THE GRAND LEGEND 2/1
# 8 BAKERS BIG OL BOY 3/1
# 3 GHOST BEAR 5/1

THE GRAND LEGEND gets the edge as the bet in here. Overall the speed figures of this pony look decent in this affair. This equine has a terrific win percentage in longer quarter horses. Looks decent versus this group and will almost certainly be one of the leaders. BAKERS BIG OL BOY - Stinebaugh has him trained soundly to break quickly out of the starting gate. Is a solid contender - given the 88 speed figure from his most recent race. GHOST BEAR - His 77 average has this gelding with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures in this competition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:05 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:38pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $39,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#4 APRIL ANTICS (ML=3/1)
#5 OH DONNA (ML=4/1)

APRIL ANTICS - A pony coming back this soon after a solid effort is a good signal. This mare garnered a nice speed fig of 65 in her last event. That fig should be high enough to score this time. OH DONNA - This thoroughbred could be tough in today's contest, especially since Davis rode last race out and now should be familiar with this one. Filly won shipping here on June 17th and looks good right back. That was a solid win last time out. In my opinion has a good chance to repeat today. This filly is number one in earnings per race. Check out this one before the race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SUPER DUPER FLY (ML=5/2), #2 SIMPLE SUGAR (ML=7/2), #3 RACING COLORS (ML=6/1),

SUPER DUPER FLY - The morning-line favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of morning blow outs. SIMPLE SUGAR - This horse just hasn't looked fit recently. RACING COLORS - 6/1 is too short of a price to take on most any mount that has run poorly in back to back outings. Don't believe this horse will do much running in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 APRIL ANTICS to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:05 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Pleasanton - Race #1 - Post: 1:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#1 AMANOFMYSTATURE (ML=7/2)

AMANOFMYSTATURE - Have to like the way Trujillo has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HARBOR SKY (ML=2/1), #3 MR. CLUTCH (ML=5/2), #5 MYSTIC TBILISI (ML=4/1),

HARBOR SKY - This gelding is always close, but just doesn't get the job done. Hard to wager on him on the top end. This gelding didn't do too much last time out. This gelding ran his top speed rating in some time on the dirt in a sprint race. There may be a performance bounce today. MR. CLUTCH - 5/2 odds isn't enough for this horse when scrutinizing the most recent efforts. This gelding hasn't had any recent success in short distance affairs. Not easy to invest in him in this event. MYSTIC TBILISI - Garnered a pedestrian speed figure in the last race in a $5,000 Claiming race on June 10th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 AMANOFMYSTATURE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2023, 08:05 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SO - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 97

INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN 2022-2023 OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 HORSES

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SILENT FLASH 2/1
# 6 AIM FOR THE SKY 4/1
# 5 RED RIVER REBEL 6/1

My pick for this race is SILENT FLASH. Has performed admirably lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 91 avg speed figure. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. AIM FOR THE SKY - Ought to come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the lead recently. This gelding ought to be given consideration just off the earnings per start in turf sprint races alone. RED RIVER REBEL - He has formidable class ratings, averaging 103, and has to be given consideration in this competition. He has to be carefully examined given the very good speed numbers.