Sunday 7/2/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:41 AM

What You Need to Know - National Best Plays - 7/2/23

July 2, 2023
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know.”
Sunday, July 2, 2023
(listed in chronological order)

Ellis Park – 5th race: 5-The Wine Steward (5-1). Post time: 1:45 CT

Was knocked down to 2/5 in his racing debut at Belmont Park in late May and didn’t disappoint, easily overcoming a sluggish start from the rail to quickly rally when called upon and graduate in stylish fashion while roaring home (final furlong in :12 flat) before galloping out full of run. From the first crop of Vino Rosso, this $340,000 OBS March purchase should get nothing but better with distance and experience, and with an extra furlong to compliment his style in this year’s edition of the Bashford Manor Stakes the Michael Maker-trained juvenile should be along in plenty of time. Listed as the second choice at 3-1 on the morning line, he offers superior value in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.

*

Monmouth Park – 8th race: 7-Under the Overpass (5/2). Post time: 3:55 ET

Was supposed to be a good thing in his debut at Pimlico in late May (4/5 favorite) but wound up third (beaten a neck) in a very promising performance that should have netted a diploma. The son of Malibu Moon broke poorly and trailed early in the four and one-half furlong dash, commenced his rally in traffic on the turn, angled out for clearly sailing in the final stages to close resolutely before simply running out of ground. The barn has very strong stats with the second-time starter angle, so we’re expecting this well-regarded juvenile to step forward considerably with a race under his belt and an extra half furlong to work with. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single in a race in which the first timers don’t look like anything special.

*

Belmont Park – 9th race: 3-Wardeya (5/2). Post time: 5:20 ET

Here’s a lightly raced, superbly bred filly with an improving pattern stretching out to a mini-marathon trip that appears set for a diploma-earning performance. In the frame in both starts over a middle distance, the Todd Pletcher-trained four-year-old finished second in her most recent start in a fast, highly rated affair won by Gloria’s Princess, who franked the from by winning on the raise in her next start. In a race that seems likely to produce soft splits, the daughter of Tapit projects to draft into an ideal early stalking position and then have clear sailing and every chance when the pressure is turned on. There’s good value to be found in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near her morning line of 5/2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:42 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 2, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race program to begin the week. The headliners are 3-year-old Ohio breds in Buckeye Stallion series action. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

2-Tan Man (9/2)-Needs a trip and should get an up-close seat with this post draw. Merriman might find a way into the pocket behind the morning line choice #4. Should be in the mix and hopefully won't be over bet.
4-Tide Has Turned (8/5)-This 3-year-old can win if Myers lands on the point without much trouble. Does have good gate speed, has won 2 of 3 races here and will likely be a tiny price. Not completely convinced so will use a couple of others with more value.
6-Boardwalk Jack (5-1)-Raced well in the last 2 starts at ScD and will look for the upswing to continue. Regular driver Chris Page steers and if the fractions are hot this gelding could roll off cover and surprise at a solid price.

Race 12

2-Tequila Talkin (5/2)-This Burke veteran still loves to compete and is in fine form. In the last 10 races, has been no worse than 3rd at this class with the majority of starts coming at Nfld. Draws inside for the first time in months and could make the most of a cozy trip.
3-Eye Ofa Tiger AS (3-1)-Raced good in last but things didn't set-up well for Davis Jr with the outside post draw. Brushed up from last after the well-meant winner had a 2nd quarter breather and could never get a nose in front. The trip should be better tonight.

Race 13

1-Shnitzledosomethin (8/5)-Program chalk is making its Nfld debut. Has struggled this year (9-1-1-2) but should enjoy the company. Back-class could show in this spot but can't completely trust leaving from post 1 and may have to be used to protect the rail.
2-Repeal Or Replace (5-1)-Takes a few steps up in class, so this will be a test. This isn't the deepest field and wired the last group in 151.2. Should get on the engine off the gate and look to make the same game plan work.

Race 14

5-Bronx Seelster (9/5)-Dropped and popped at the Meadows and lands in another good spot to win again. Has the gate speed to get a close-up seat or land on the point once the wings fold. Should be in control of this race early on and has won 4 of 7 Nfld starts.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,4,6/2,3/1,2/5
Total Bet=$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #3

#6 Timehascome	He has the pace to get in the mix early on, but he has also finished from off the splits before, giving his rider a couple options early on today. Think he can prompt the other speed the whole way.
#3 Sonnyisnotsofunny	He's an honest finisher, but I have a mild worry that he's going to be along too late in a spot without a ton of serious early burn. Capable player.
#1 Dash to the Cash	Nothing wrong with the good finishing effort at 40/1 in that last one, but he's another who might be along too late. Mid-range price for a piece?
Race Summary	Timehascome should get a good run of things here while pressing the pace from the outside, and I think he'll be able to put that other pace player away and hold the finishers late. Would be appealing at anything like the 3/1 ML price.

Hawthorne - Race #4

#3 Angel Express	Tactical speed goes second off the layoff while putting two races together for the first time, and she has flashed a little pace in both of her starts so far. Not a whole lot of other pace signed on from those who have run already.
#6 Pacific View	Not sure which way she's going right now, as she was in for $15,000 a few starts back and took a notable step back in that last trip to post. Better stuff would do.
#1 Gold Oak	Get a look at this debuter on the tote and track ahead of this one, but I don't think this is the scariest special weight field we're going to see locally here this year, so she might not have to be a real star to make some noise today.
Race Summary	Angel Express has a little of speed while trying the main track for the first time, and she has a big claim on this if she is able to take a step forward in this second start back.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#1 Prancipants	She comes right back in some of her better form, and I wonder if her route speed might serve her well while cutting back to this sharper turf trip. Think she's tough today.
#8 Rare Action Attack	She typically offers decent prices despite doing her best work going short on the turf, and she makes a lot of sense for another piece today after finishing well with similar last out.
#4 First Squadron	Dangerous pace might be a little bit better on the dirt, but those last two were decent enough to think maybe she sticks around for another share today after battling early.
Race Summary	Prancipants was entered for better the other day, but she probably hits harder while coming back at this level. I think her route pace may play well here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:44 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - July 2

Jul. 01, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md 40000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (6) Elevated Causeway (B) was held up in the stretch, had to check, and still managed to finish third. (8) Collect from Ike was claimed by Linda Rice for $50,000 from his debut at Keeneland and then was moved to the turf and raced in second, for basically all of the race, and was beaten by only a head. (7) Steady Scheming beat the Hot List horse last time by a neck for second after having the lead in the stretch. (5) Rockstar Red will drop from maiden special weights for the first time after setting the pace. Bill Mott has great stats with maidens dropping in for a tag.
3^rd race [Perfect Sting, 1 mi] – (2) Technical Analysis will make her 2023 debut as a 5-year-old for Chad Brown with a superb record last year that included two wins and two seconds in graded stakes races. (3) Haughty will make her second start of this year for Brown after tiring in a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs. Last summer she won the Lake Placid (G2) at Saratoga. (1) Customer List is the third Brown runner in this field of five. She won a Monmouth Park allowance in her initial start of the year. (5) Evvie Jets won a stakes race at Aqueduct in her debut for the year with a front-end effort.
8^th race [Clm 32000, 7F] – (5) Risk Profile (A) was shut off at the start and taken up in his most recent start and was claimed by Linda Rice. (8) No More Talk won his last two starts while moving up the claiming ladder since joining the barn of David Jacobson. (6) Ragtime Blues gets blinkers on in his second start since being claimed for $25,000 and is projected to be on the lead. (4) First Deputy was claimed for $20,000 last time out after a second when beaten by less than a length.
9^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/4 mi TURF] – (4) Jet City Woman (A) got bumped in the stretch of her last race when she rallied from ninth to finish second just behind the winner in her first start on the grass. (3) Wardeya has a third and a second for Todd Pletcher, switched to the grass, and finished behind a horse that came back to win her next start. (6) High Stick returned to the turf for her second race of the year, ran second, and made a huge improvement in speed figures for Shug McGaughey. (8) Tawaret will return from a short layoff to make her third career for the Clement barn. Last time she had to race from the 11 post position.
Best bets: Elevated Causeway (1^st); Technical Analysis (3^rd). Best value: Risk Profile (8^th); Jet City Woman (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(6)	Elevated Causeway	B on 6/4	1	Held up in the stretch, checked, and finished third.
(5)	Risk Profile	A on 6/24	8	Shut off and taken up at the start, claimed by L. Rice.
(4)	Jet City Woman	A on 4/20	9	Bumped in the stretch and went from ninth to second.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:44 AM

Ellis Park Hotlist - July 2

Jul. 01, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (8) Cool Rags was hurt by a wide trip last time and can make amends here. (2) Trident Hit could contend at this level. (5) Zoomer fits in nicely here. (3) He’s Got This steps up off a sharp win. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-8. Doubles: 2-3-5-8 with 1-3-4.
3rd race – (3) V V’s Dream (A) won her debut by a little more than 6 lengths and looks best here. (1) Hibernacle will be a threat from the rail. (4) Brightwork looked good in a winning debut. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4.
5th race – (7) Magical Mark ships in off a powerful Lone Star win and may prove best. (5) The Wine Steward was impressive in a Belmont romp. (1) Wilson Q could work out a winning trip from the rail. (3) Go Otto Go has enough speed to be a threat. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-7. Exactas: 5-7 over 1-3 and 1-3 over 5-7.
8th race – (11) Squire Creek was a troubled second in a New York stakes and should bounce back here. (1) Ryvit has speed and the rail and is the one to fear. (2) New York Thunder could strike in his dirt debut. (6) Mullikin was an easy maiden winner but tackles stakes rivals here. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-11. Doubles: 1-2-6-11 with 1-3-7-8.
9th race – (1) Zozos seeks a third straight win and can control the pace from the rail. (8) Three Technique was a game winner last time and will be dangerous on his best try. (7) Collaborate is worth a look off the Maker claim. (3) Warrior Johny can take a nice step forward here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(3)	V V’s Dream	A, 5/19	3 EP	Was an impressive debut winner

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:48 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings

PURCHASE

Hastings - Race 4	Exactor ($1) / Triactor ($1) / Superfecta (.20 )/ Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7) (.20)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 3:39P
(PLUS UP TO $5,500 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 2 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. PAINT ME LUCKY is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAINT ME LUCKY: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation . RACING RIVER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. I'M A CHI TOO: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
3	PAINT ME LUCKY	4/1	4/1
2	RACING RIVER	9/5	5/1
4	I'M A CHI TOO	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	QUAGMIRE	1	5/2	Front-runner	75	73	81.0	72.0	63.5
4	I'M A CHI TOO	4	9/2	Front-runner	75	76	77.8	74.4	70.4
2	RACING RIVER	2	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	78	79	91.2	74.2	69.7
3	PAINT ME LUCKY	3	4/1	Stalker	91	87	62.6	85.3	81.3
5	RING OF KERRY	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	72	69.6	68.8	60.8
6	TIZ MEOW	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	72	53.8	68.2	56.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:48 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana DownsPURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / .50 Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 57 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 4:26P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 2, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BRI is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BRI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAJUN ACES: Horse has a Tra ckMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MYLIES STAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance /surface.
4	BRI	2/1	4/1
3	CAJUN ACES	5/2	5/1
1	MYLIES STAR	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CAJUN ACES	3	5/2	Stalker	67	62	43.6	40.6	36.1
4	BRI	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	58	57.2	51.1	43.1
1	MYLIES STAR	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	53	48.8	44.8	39.3
7	CUSTOM MAIDEN	7	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	64	56	35.6	42.4	36.9
2	DIALED J	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	57	39.8	11.4	0.0
6	STAR'S DREAM	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	42	34.6	41.6	34.1
5	I DONT KNOW EITHER	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	54	19.6	39.4	29.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Wyoming Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 73

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 CARTEL NIGHT 7/2
# 1 CHIANTI 6/1
# 7 HER FANCY TAIL 4/1

CARTEL NIGHT is the most competitive wager in this race. This filly with Teeter in the irons makes her a solid contender. Has to be considered in this competition if only for the very good speed rating earned in the last race. The average class figure alone makes this horse a definite contender. CHIANTI - Could provide positive returns based on respectable recent speed figs with an average of 69. Will most likely go to the front end and should never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:49 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:25pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,200 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#10 SHES THE NORTH (ML=8/1)
#5 HONEY BOURBON (ML=6/1)

SHES THE NORTH - Racing at a similar level as last race on May 18th at Gulfstream Park. I think Bernardini has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances in today's race. She got a decent speed rating the last time she tried this trip. This equine is utmost in earnings per race. She looks sharp in today's race. HONEY BOURBON - That last race must not have been too hard on this mare for her to be able to race again so quickly. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Silva. Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a good effort is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JOY IN THE BATTLE (ML=5/2), #8 BELLE BREZING (ML=3/1), #7 COWGIRL KIMMIE (ML=6/1),

JOY IN THE BATTLE - This filly hasn't had any recent good results in short distance events. No picnic to bet on her in this race. BELLE BREZING - The result of fourth in the last race shows me that this animal may be losing physical conditioning. Notched a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time out in a Starter Allowance race on June 21st. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating. COWGIRL KIMMIE - Not easy to play this mount today. Make her show you something in a short distance race before you play her in a race of 7 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #10 SHES THE NORTH on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:49 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gillespie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 44

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 EYESA RED CAT 3/1
# 7 SG TOASTED EAGLE 5/1
# 5 SG JONNYWALKER RED 5/2

EYESA RED CAT is the best wager in this race. SG TOASTED EAGLE - The extreme drop in company can only help out this one this time around. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. SG JONNYWALKER RED - Lewis has him trained soundly to break quickly out of the gate.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-02-2023, 07:49 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 2:18pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $49,600 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#9 WORRY LESS (ML=3/1)

WORRY LESS - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Have to like the way Chubb has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. Trying to be a winner for the first-time moving from a grass race to the main track. I think Chubb will have her fit and ready for today's affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SMILES FOR DAVID (ML=5/2), #3 HOLIDAY WITH AMY (ML=4/1), #1 VERI GIZMO (ML=6/1),

SMILES FOR DAVID - Will probably be way back with much too much to do down the homestretch. Shouldn't bet on this one as the chalk with little to offer for the risk involved. HOLIDAY WITH AMY - This pony ran a most unsatisfactory rating in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's race running that rating. VERI GIZMO - Would have to move up off that eighth place finish last time out to make an impact here. Difficult to back any vulnerable equine in a sprint race if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months. When looking at today's class figure, she will have to record a better speed fig than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 WORRY LESS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip