Tuesday 7/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#5 Libertalia	She has already had a lot of chances and is bringing form that isn't anything to write home about, but she turned in some efforts last year that would be competitive in this spot, and she might find herself up on a manageable enough pace.
#11 Lt. Lydia	She's fast enough to find a really good spot from the high draw today, and her first try at the level produced a running line that would probably get the job done if she brings it right back after chasing a longshot winner last out.
#2 Kagero	She woke up a bit on the cutback last time out, and she makes a lot of sense if she's able to bring something similar again today. Not sure how short a price I'd get excited to take, though, after that last one came out of nowhere at a big number.
Race Summary	Libertalia might be fast enough to make things interesting right up near the front end today, and she should offer a decent number on the board while needing to get back to some of her efforts from last year if she is going to land this.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 America's Guest	He's up in class again after turning in a nice first effort with winners off the claim last time out, and I think he might be able to sit the perfect trip behind a couple pace players. Chance to get on the wire with a well-timed move?
#7 Extrasexybigdaddee	He's pretty honest and has some versatility in his running style, so his rider should be able to place him in a really good spot to spy the pace early on. Capable but maybe a bit overbet?
#1 Van	He has to turn some tables on a couple players out of that last one, but he has a little upside in the second start back and wouldn't be out of the question if the pace players faced a couple early middle moves to set things up for him late.
Race Summary	America's Guest and Van both have some price appeal for me in a race where Extrasexybigdaddee looks tough, but also doesn't seem like he has to win today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#4 Lightning Round	Strong lean for me here to end the day as she has turned in a couple good tries off the bench so far and has been a pretty reliable finisher. Like the fact that she's got proven rating form and will be able to adapt to however the forward players sort things out early.
#8 Sign and Seal	The local form fits pretty well here, and she benefits from being able to settle just a bit off the pace if an early battle of any kind develops. Baseline try gives her a chance.
#6 First Impression	She has been pretty consistent since she got off the turf, but the synthetic footing poses a question for this one today, and it feels like she has a little proving to do on class today -- a touch cheap?
Race Summary	In trying to figure out the pace, there are a couple horses who are surely going to battle early and may be joined by pressing types, and Lightning Round has super honest form that gives her a big chance from just off the pace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Los Alamitos - Race #6

#6 RUN SNAPPY (4-1)	Lightly-raced 5yo lands in ideal spot to snap long winless drought.
#1 MCWHERTER (7-2)	Has loyal following, piles up the checks at this distance.
#5 PERFECT D (9-2)	Doesn’t shy from ‘photo’ camera, benefited from troubled rivals in lone 2023 start.
Race Summary	RUN SNAPPY won the duel but lost to the deep closers in a higher-tagged long sprint last out. He draws a favorable post in this 1,000-year sprint for his third start of a cycle. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

Los Alamitos - Race #8

#1 INDY’S STAR (3-1)	Versatile, consistent, appeared home free in latest before wandering late.
#5 MY DESTINY (EVEN)	No threat in G-I, blew past American of Course (18/5-6-2, $171k) two back.
#4 SWEET HEIDELBERG (5-1)	Gets needed class relief, most recent win was in 4-horse field.
Race Summary	INDY’S STAR led at some point in 6 of her 8 races this year at various distances, good for an 8/2-2-3 record. She drifted on a clear stretch lead at one mile last out as the beaten favorite for her new connections, but can make amends on the cutback to a long sprint. Bet to win and place.

Los Alamitos - Race #9

#1 ELM DRIVE (7-2)	Can’t fault in current form, hooked tigress in the Great Lady M Stakes last year.
#7 AWAKE AT MIDNYTE (7-2)	Always seems to make a move, handles any distance, ran 1-2 in 7 of 13 starts.
#2 EDA (5-2)	Won G-III route off 15-month layoff, then stepped on gas for front-end repeat at 6-1/2F.
Race Summary	ELM DRIVE won back-to-back 6-1/2F stakes at Santa Anita to begin her 4-year-old season, one on turf, one dirt and both at good odds. She was last seen at Los Alamitos a year ago, finishing a troubled third in this Grade II race behind Becca Taylor, who is currently a multiple graded stakes winner of $499k and 9-for-10 in her career. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - July 4

Jul. 04, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 AVAS STORM
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Avas Storm	A Alsagoor
PLACE	2-1	5	Paid in Gold	R A Vazquez
SHOW	6-1	3	Merrily Rush	K Frey
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Accelerina	E A Ellingwood
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	House of Magic	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #2 $22,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	4	Sunrise Journey	E A Maldonado
PLACE	4-1	1	Big Swede	A Fresu
SHOW	12-1	2	Majestic Wind	A Alsagoor
WILD CARD	2-1	5	Established	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Kant Beat the Rock	E Payeras
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #3 $45,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ISABEL LUDLOW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Isabel Ludlow	T J Pereira
PLACE	1-1	1	Sing a Happy Song	R A Vazquez
SHOW	10-1	5	Stans Starlet	K Frey
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Flymetothemoonbaby	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	The Music We Make	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #4 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 RAIN DIVA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Rain Diva	E A Maldonado
PLACE	9-2	3	Chollima	A Cedillo
SHOW	7-2	2	A New Peace	A Aguilar
WILD CARD	2-1	5	Flat Out Joy	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Drizella	E Payeras
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $29,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	3	See Through It	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	2	My Summer Dream	T J Pereira
SHOW	3-1	1	Mister Bold	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Molto Vivace	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Sigur Ros	R Ramirez
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #6 $12,500 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Wegonahavagoodtime	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	3	Whisky My God	C Ortega
SHOW	9-2	5	Perfect D	A Aguilar
WILD CARD	7-2	1	McWherter	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Run Snappy	C Figueroa
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Edinburgh Express	B Harvey
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #7 $6,250 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	3	Perfecto Amor	E Garcia
PLACE	7-5	4	Equipo A	R A Vazquez
SHOW	8-5	1	Quick Intro	E Payeras
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Pollo dOro	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #8 $22,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	5	My Destiny	R A Vazquez
PLACE	6-1	6	The Reign Song	A Fresu
SHOW	3-1	2	Indys Star	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Classymademoiselle	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Sweet Heidelberg	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Apart of My Charm	E K Rojas Fernandez
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Eda	J J Hernandez
PLACE	7-2	1	Elm Drive	R A Vazquez
SHOW	6-1	3	Rose Maddox	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Awake At Midnyte	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Dance to the Music	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Vegas Magic	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - July 4

Jul. 04, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $125,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	1	Runaway Rumour	M Franco
PLACE	4-1	5	Whatlovelookslike	F Prat
SHOW	7-5	2	Sanura	J Castellano
WILD CARD	6-5	6	Sunset Louise	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Golden Rocket	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Freddymo Factor	G Huayas
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 REFUAH
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Refuah	T McCarthy
PLACE	7-2	5	Battleoflexington	J Alvarado
SHOW	5-2	4	Im Just	J Rosario
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Union Trail	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Bastion	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	1	Gossiping Pando	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:09 PM ET
BEST BET: #1A SY DOG
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1A	Sy Dog	M Franco
PLACE	3-1	6	Portfolio Company	J Rosario
SHOW	4-1	3	Safe Conduct	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	9-5	1	Mackinnon	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	St Anthony	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #4 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:38 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 FRAT PACK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Frat Pack	F Prat
PLACE	4-1	6	Disappearance	K Carmouche
SHOW	5-2	5	Magico	M Franco
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Honor King	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Golden Purchase	D Brown
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Omni King	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:09 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Mistical Curlin	J Lezcano
PLACE	7-2	1	Arrebato	A Castillo
SHOW	5-1	7	Winning Connection	D Davis
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Warrior Richard	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Hang Tight	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	1A	Centavo	O Hernandez Moreno
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #6 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:41 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Yes and Yes	J L Ortiz
PLACE	12-1	4	Voodoo Zip	D Davis
SHOW	8-1	3	Slipstream	J Rosario
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Heaven Street	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	1A	Thin White Duke	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Duke of Hazzard	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/4 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Federalist Papers	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	3-1	1	Arina	F Prat
SHOW	10-1	7	Shad Nation	D Davis
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Broadway Boogie	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Myriskyaffair	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Be Up	M Franco
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #8 $32,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Icy Stare Down	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	8	Awesome Indra	K Carmouche
SHOW	9-2	6	Beautiful Karen	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Diva Banker	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Customerexperience	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Alpine Queen	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Ortus	J Rosario
PLACE	4-1	5	Golden Arm	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	20-1	8	Factually Correct	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Be the Boss	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Feathers Road	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Kreesa	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #10 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/4 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Anatolian	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	10-1	2	Lullaby Land	J L Ortiz
SHOW	7-2	1	Olkovskha	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Highland Grace	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Pegs A. K. Girl	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Out of Sight	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thistledown Tip Sheet - July 4

Jul. 04, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 74% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $35,800 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Our Buckwheat	C Keiser
PLACE	5-2	5	Playing for Keeps	A R Ramgeet
SHOW	4-1	7	Prosecutor	J J Velez
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Stars N Space	L A Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Turbo Power	E Paucar
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	The Gospel of Mark	A I Diaz
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #2 $28,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Gun Lap	J Sanchez
PLACE	6-1	7	Otis Otis Otis	L A Gonzalez
SHOW	6-1	2	The Coachman	J A Bracho
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Masai Man	Y Aviles
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	You Are Awesome	V R Fernandez
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	9	Rumble Strip Ron	L R Rivera
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $5,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Vavite	V Salazar Becerra
PLACE	2-1	3	Turbie	L R Rivera
SHOW	7-2	2	Dream Music	V Severino
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Indy Lites	F Salazar Becerra
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Playful Summer	A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Skirts Kid	A Hernandez-Lopez
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #4 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 STAR MABEE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Star Mabee	L R Rivera
PLACE	6-1	10	Lady Abril	Y Yaranga
SHOW	4-1	1	Carmen Ohio	H Berrios
WILD CARD	6-1	7	J Js Fancy	V Severino
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Swindle	J Sanchez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Biscayne Bay	E Barbaran
* EXACTA: 8-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/10 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX
RACE #5 $35,800 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 FLAG RAISER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Flag Raiser	E Barbaran
PLACE	3-1	3	Little Toy Guns	J A Bracho
SHOW	7-2	2	Primitivo	L R Rivera
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Danes Heart	Y Yaranga
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Heidi Five	L M Briceno
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Orleans Storm	Y Aviles
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $7,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Team Gold Digger	A R Ramgeet
PLACE	7-2	6	Immaculate Heart	L A Gonzalez
SHOW	2-1	3	Shelleys Gem	F Salazar Becerra
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Bareback Fun	A Guerere
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Talk Dirty	A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Joyful Noise	H Berrios
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 BACOPA BAY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	Bacopa Bay	E Barbaran
PLACE	7-2	5	Costume Jewelry	V Salazar Becerra
SHOW	3-1	4	Can I Go Too	R Halledeen
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Cee Cees Got This	E Paucar
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Penniesanddimes	A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Dancing Grace	G Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #8 $35,800 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Sweet Unique	L R Rivera
PLACE	7-2	3	Stealth Mode	J Sanchez
SHOW	4-1	6	Serger	J A Bracho
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Getoutoftheharem	J J Velez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Savesomeforme	E Barbaran
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Margarita Cinco	F Salazar Becerra
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - July 4

Jul. 02, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi] – (5) Battleoflexington (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1 and finished third after a wide trip. (3) Refuah has plenty of past races that make him a contender in this field, although his last two were not good. (2) Union Trail pressed the pace in his prior start on a sloppy track when he was moving back to the dirt racing. With only three career starts, he has some upside. (1) Gossiping Pando made his first career start just 10 days ago on the turf at 9-1 and now moves to the dirt for Linda Rice whose debuting horses usually need a race.
7^th race [OC 62k/N2X, 1 1/4 mi TURF – (7) Shad Nation (A) has two races back since turf racing returned in the spring. Last time she set the pace but checked sharply when impeded at the 1/8 pole losing all chance. (8) Myriskyaffair also has two races since taking the winter off and missed the win by a nose while improving her speed figures. (6) Federalist Papers was third going a long distance on the grass in her first start of the year for Brendan Walsh. (1) Arina has a third and a second in her two most recent starts for Chad Brown to go with a Group 3 victory in Germany last year.
9^th race [NY, Alw 80000 N1X, 6F TURF] – (3) Be of Courage (C) was bet down from 8-1 to 6-1 and rallied from last to miss the win by less than a length after a wide trip. (1) Ortus cutback to a sprint on the grass in his first start against winners in an allowance. (5) Golden Arm won at first asking and then was fourth in a deep allowance field where the first two finishers came back to win their next start. (4) Eddie the Great made his 2023 debut last month and was second in an open company claimer.
10^th race [Alw 95000 N1X, 1 1/4 mi TURF] – (9) Anatolian (A) moved back to the turf in her second start of the year and finished second beaten by a half-length after stumbling during the race. (5) Highland Grace raced in a few strong fields and then got her maiden win at Belmont. (3) Out of Sight made two starts this year with improved speed figures with the most recent coming in a NY-bred stakes race. (2) Lullaby Land moved up from the claiming ranks to finish third in her most recent start behind the top choice.
Best bets: Battleoflexington (2^nd); Anatolian (10^th). Best value: Shad Nation (7^th); Be of Courage (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(5)	Battleoflexington	C on 6/9	2	Bet down and finished third after a wide trip.
(7)	Shad Nation	A on 6/11	7	Had the lead, checked sharply at the 1/8 pole.
(3)	Be of Courage	C on 6/9	9	Rallied from last to second while bet down.
(9)	Anatolian	A on 6/1	10	Stumbled and gained down the stretch for second.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie

PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 6	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Jackpot High 5 (Pentafecta)
Maiden Special • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $21,600 • Post: 6:50P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. (LIMITED TO 8 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $4,725 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. MENAGERIE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MENAGERIE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f. JIMMY IS A BREEZE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SUPER COOL STORM: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. BRIENNE OF TARTH: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	MENAGERIE	8/1	7/2
8	JIMMY IS A BREEZE	7/2	6/1
4	SUPER COOL STORM	3/1	7/1
6	BRIENNE OF TARTH	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	JIMMY IS A BREEZE	8	7/2	Front-runner	65	62	86.3	31.3	25.8
4	SUPER COOL STORM	4	3/1	Front-runner	70	64	50.2	38.9	36.9
6	BRIENNE OF TARTH	6	4/1	Front-runner	60	57	37.5	54.8	46.8
1	TANGERINE TWIST	1	6/1	Stalker	58	47	39.4	47.6	37.1
2	MIMI'S HOLIDAY	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	55.3	48.2	36.7
3	MENAGERIE	3	8/1	Trailer	73	71	39.8	58.8	51.8
7	ASHWICKEN	7	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	29	77.7	39.8	28.3
5	LADY OF THE FORT	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	31.5	23.1	7.6

Unknown Running Style: TEQUILAS MELODY (8/1) [Jockey: Mailhot Pierre - Trainer: Rabstein Claudia S].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 9	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $1 Super High 5
Stakes • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $200,000 • Post: 5:00P
GREAT LADY M S. - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION CLOSED THURSDAY JUNE 22, 2023 WITH 18 NOMINATIONS, OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $4,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. ALL HORSES SHALL PAY $1,500 TO PASS ENTRY BOX AND $1,500 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $200,000 GUARANTEED WITH $120,000 TO THE WINNER, $40,000 TO SECOND, $24,000 TO THIRD, $12,000 TO FOURTH AND $4,000 TO FIFTH. THREE YEAR OLDS 119 LBS. OLDER 124 LBS. NON WINNERS OF A GRADED STAKE SINCE JANUARY 24, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. NON WINNERS OF A GRADED STAKE SINCE OCTOBER 4, 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PAMMY'S READY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAMMY'S READY: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). EDA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DANCE TO THE MUSIC: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ELM DRIVE: Horse's win percentage at t oday's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days.
5	PAMMY'S READY	12/1	4/1
2	EDA	5/2	5/1
9	DANCE TO THE MUSIC	6/1	8/1
1	ELM DRIVE	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	PAMMY'S READY	5	12/1	Front-runner	100	99	91.0	99.2	88.7
9	DANCE TO THE MUSIC	9	6/1	Front-runner	101	99	86.0	86.2	76.2
1	ELM DRIVE	1	7/2	Front-runner	100	97	80.2	72.4	66.4
2	EDA	2	5/2	Front-runner	96	99	79.6	90.1	85.1
4	REAL FIRE	4	20/1	Stalker	96	93	84.1	71.6	60.6
7	AWAKE AT MIDNYTE	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	102	92	67.4	88.0	80.5
6	CHISMOSA	6	20/1	Trailer	91	74	79.6	78.9	64.9
8	VEGAS MAGIC	8	10/1	Trailer	87	81	77.0	74.3	56.8
3	ROSE MADDOX	3	6/1	Trailer	95	97	58.7	89.9	81.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 RIPROCK 15/1
# 5 CANYOUHEARMERUNNIN 5/1
# 6 DANCINGINTHECREEK 5/2

My choice for this event is RIPROCK especially at 15/1. By Vengeful Wildcat, has a clear advantage in the bloodlines - brothers and sisters have raced soundly as two-year olds. This gelding could improve on Lasix. Is a definite contender - trainer has sported quite good figs for two year olds with some good gains for investors. CANYOUHEARMERUNNIN - In a juvenile contest if you see the name Reload in the sire line you know you have a definite contender. Look at this horse's Sire (Reload) worth a bet given his figures (+29 ROI with 2yolds) alone. DANCINGINTHECREEK - This trainer has produced starters that have consistently produced respectable board hit percentages in their first outing. This young racer is worth consideration. TrackMaster shows formidable trainer stats with 2 year olds. With Chow getting the mount, watch out for this horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Pleasanton - Race #8 - Post: 5:15pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#4 TOWN PERFORMER (ML=6/1)


TOWN PERFORMER - This jockey and handler's animals have been producing a positive return on investment. Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a strong contest last time out within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GODSEND (ML=5/2), #7 SLEW'S JOY (ML=3/1), #8 KERRY GOLD (ML=7/2),

GODSEND - Can't wager on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair of late. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Long layoff and no drop in level of competition. Common speed rating last out at Santa Anita at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this steed will improve too much in today's race. SLEW'S JOY - No wager value on this entrant at the probable odds of 3/1. KERRY GOLD - This gelding showed very liitle last time. Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a sprint affair to be any kind of value at short odds in a sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 TOWN PERFORMER to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 6
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $5600 Class Rating: 62

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 WRANGLER JESS 5/2
# 4 CORONA BOSS 3/1
# 5 CORONA WAGON TRAIN 3/1

WRANGLER JESS is the best bet in this race. Has quite good early pace and should fare soundly versus this group. Is a solid contender based on figs garnered lately under today's conditions. Must be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. CORONA BOSS - Shows formidable Equibase speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses in this race. Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. CORONA WAGON TRAIN - He has posted competitive numbers under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group of horses. Ought to be given a chance here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #7 - Post: 7:54pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#4 DAWSON CITY (ML=3/1)
#11 STORM MAN (ML=12/1)


DAWSON CITY - I expect a lot from this beautiful animal. His speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this field. A horse coming back this rapidly after a solid effort is a good omen. This thoroughbred collects a lot of cash per race around the track. I believe he can increase that bankroll in this event. STORM MAN - This first timer has been getting primed in the morning at Lone Star Park, a good sign. When this jockey and trainer are put together you have to take a look. Goncalves and Craddock have been fantastic together. Gets help from Craddock with the addition of Lasix.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LIVINGSTON (ML=7/2), #12 IT'LL DO (ML=4/1), #5 MOHAYMEN HOLIDAY (ML=5/1),

LIVINGSTON - Didn't look so great last time out. Probably won't do much running today. Mediocre speed fig last time out at Lone Star Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much today. IT'LL DO - Last ran on June 4th at Lone Star Park, finishing seventh. Unlikely to advance off of that try in today's event. There's early zip, speed, and more early zip in this affair. Doesn't look good for this animal. MOHAYMEN HOLIDAY - He's probably going to get cooked on the top end. This gelding finished out of the money on October 18th and wasn't even close last out either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 DAWSON CITY to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 11 with [1,7,10] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 11 with [1,2,5,7,10] with [1,2,5,7,10] Total Cost: $20