Saturday 7/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:05 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - July 8, 2023

July 8, 2023
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” - National Best Plays
(listed in chronological order)

Gulfstream Park – 2nd race: 6-Mayheminthepalace (5/2). Post time: 1:20 ET

Those with a prior race in this maiden juvenile dash don’t inspire, so let’s zero in on a talented newcomer that appears fit and ready to win at first asking. A homebred 2-year-old that has done some excellent work in preparation for this five and one-half furlong sprint, the Florida-bred colt shows a healthy series of drills that includes a :48 4/5 half mile gate breeze last month while even with stable mate Big Effect, who ran so well last weekend when missing by a neck and far clear of the rest in a noteworthy debut. Previously, the Edward Plesa, Jr.-trained colt breezed a half in :47 3/5 that was third fastest of 22 for the distance. From a barn that has strong stats with debut runners, and with the stable’s “go-to” jockey taking the call, the son of Palace Malice offers an excellent gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at anywhere near his morning line of 3-1.

*

Ellis Park – 5th race: 1-Monsieur Coco (7/2). Post time: 1:45 CT

Talented colt makes his first start since November and could easily be a better type this time around, and as a winner of two of five starts including the Proud Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park last summer, he was pretty good when he left. The quick son of Bolt d’Oro returns in the Dade Park Dash in his first taste of grass racing, and there is no reason he shouldn’t be able to duplicate his dirt form on turf. From the rail in a field that lacks much early speed, the Fausto Gutierrez-trained sophomore projects to be on or near the lead throughout and based on his speed figures from his juvenile campaign he absolutely should be able to run with this group. With a sharp series of workouts (two recent bullets) and at or near his morning line of 7/2, he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

*

Ellis Park – 9th race: 3-Scatlie (5/2). Post time: 3:55 CT

Brought $400,000 in the 20222 OBS April sale, and though taking more than a year to get to the races she looked every bit the part of that purchase price when a very unlucky third in her racing debut at Churchill Downs last month. The daughter of Mendelssohn was off poorly in that abbreviated grass dash to lose valuable position, was caught in heavy traffic until the head of the lane, then finished with purpose to be beaten less than a length before galloping out strongly. The Brian Lynch-trained filly was entered back on June 29 in a similar affair but was scratched when the race was taken off the turf, so she surfaces in this mile affair – a distance that should be well within her range - after breezing a half mile in a bullet :46 4/5 at Churchill Downs eight days ago, a move that was the fastest of 83 for the distance. Drawn nicely inside and from a barn that boasts strong stats with the second-time starter angle, she presents superior wagering value (if you can get it) at 5/2 on the morning line.

*

Belmont Park – 8th race: 7-Aspray (6-1). Post time: 4:43 ET

Undefeated in three career starts with rapidly rising speed figures, this sophomore filly gets tested in Grade-1 company for the first time in this year’s edition of the Belmont Oaks. Is she this good? We’re willing to find out if she closes on the tote at or near her morning line of 6-1. The longer priced of the two Chad Brown entrants, she retains Flavian Prat, who clearly had his choice between her and Wonder Again S.-G2 Prerequisite. Most recently, the daughter of Quality Road manufactured a powerful late kick to win the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico over a mile, and it remains to be seen if she can duplicate that type of late kick at this longer 10 furlong trip against what is clearly a tougher field. However, at the price, we’ll be gambling that she can.

*

Belmont Park – 10th race: 10-Redistricting (8-1). Post time: 5:49 ET

We were completely blown away by Redistricting’s runaway debut maiden win last month and apparently trainer Chad Brown was too, as he wheels back the English-bred sophomore in this year’s renewal of the Belmont Derby Invitational despite the fact that he also will be represented by major contender and recent Pennine Ridge Stakes-G2 winner Kalik. The fact that he skips all of the available allowance conditions to run this gelding (one would think, what’s the rush?) in a Grade-1 event tells us he’s a believes the son of Kingman may very well be this good. Settling in mid-pack before unleashing a powerful late kick to win by almost five lengths despite being eased up late, this Klaravich Stables color bearer earned a speed figure that absolutely makes him competitive against this big boys. The outside draw at this 10 furlong distance is no bargain, but with any kind of decent trip under Flavian Prat he’s represents a reasonable investment at or near his morning line of 8-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

July 8, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 14-race card scheduled. The headliners are the Graduate Series Final for Trotters and Pacers as well as the Meadowlands Pace Eliminations. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6-Meadowlands Pace Elimination (8:25 PM EST)

1-Voukefalas (2-1)-Comes back to its favorite track after a decent but not up to usual standards showing in the North American Cup Elims and Final at Mohawk. Qualified with a sharp effort in 150.4 with a 53.1 back half on 7-1 and should be ready for a top try. The colt has a solid Big M record of (8-5-1-2) and has taken every picture here except for one start.
3-Fulton (5/2)-Raced wide in the NA Cup Final and still hung on for 3rd a half-length better than #1. This will be its M1 debut, and my guess is we haven't seen the best from the Toscano pupil.

Race 7 (8:50 PM EST)

2-My Pal Joe (5-1)-This is an interesting field and will look here as Joe B should be racing near the top of the stack off the gate. Likes the track (52-9-8-8) and has the speed to win but needs the right trip.
7-PL Ozzy (6-1)-Some horses take a big jump from their 4 to 5-year-old season and that seems to be the case here. This race is a real test, takes a big step up in class but has the gate speed to get a close-up seat. Is worth a swing at the morning line price as Ozzy tries for 6 straight wins.
9-Southwind Gendry (3-1)-Gingras probably needs to leave hard to have a chance for a picture. Isn't close to the same horse as in his younger days. But is still good enough to beat this field if gets off the gate in good shape.

Race 8-Graduate Trot Final (9:15 PM EST)

1-Jiggy Jog S (2/5)-Well you would need deep, deep pockets to keep shooting against this top mare and won't completely dismiss here especially with a couple of prices in leg 2. Winning at a tiny price surely could happen but not convinced. So, will also look to others who are racing well and have more value.
2-Looks Like Moni (6-1)-The question is if the Megan Scran trainee can win without leading coming into the stretch. Was caught near the wire by Keg Stand after a well rated middle half. What shouldn't be overlooked is the bumpy trip going 3-wide into the opening turn. The price should be right to take a swing, could be overlooked and Zeron has a knack for big money victories.
6-Keg Stand (5-1)-Comes off a nice win, went first over around the last turn and 1st time Lasix worked out well. Doesn't start on the rail tonight but is a main player if Gingras can provide a smooth trip.

Race 9-Graduate Pace Final (9:40 PM EST)

4-Mad Max Hanover (5/2)-That was quite a stretch duel between Max and the one below. Helios had the more difficult trip no doubt, but this 4-year-old looked beat but found another gear deep in the stretch. Should be right there at the wire again.
5-Stonebridge Helios (2-1)-Beaten odds-on chalk was game in defeat having to come a long way first over. Gets some post relief tonight and could quickly make amends to backers.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,3/2,7,9/1,2,6/4,5
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:06 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #5

#2 Bal a Kazoo	Maybe he just likes the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course, but he turned in another solid score last out when in touch throughout, and he should get a good trip today while seeing if he can handle better.
#1 Monsieur Coco	His run in that 2-year-old sprint stakes at Keeneland last year wasn't all bad, but his form soured next out on the main in Louisville. Think he makes some sense here, but I wouldn't be thrilled to be here if he started getting bet on some of those classier running lines.
#6 Chiseler	I could probably make a decent case for most of them in here today, but this guy wouldn't be a surprise while getting back on the grass. Decent tracking trip should keep him in a spot to show if he's good enough.
Race Summary	Bal a Kazoo has already run into a couple tough customers in his career, but he woke up again last out when turning back to a sprint trip. Curious to see what kind of price he's going to offer...

Ellis Park - Race #8

#1 Communication Memo	Solid lean here as this guy gets back around one turn, as his last two are forgivable in route spots that you kind of have to try in January and June if you've got a horse who graduated easily going long as a 2-year-old. Back to his best game today now that he doesn't seem like a legit sophomore router right now?
#7 Quick Hammer	He wouldn't surprise in the seasonal debut after a troubled trip in stakes company in that short 2-year-old campaign, but he's probably going to get bet for a tough team.
#4 Easy Fast	Hawthorne graduate looked good with a softer crew in Chicago last out, but he is probably fast enough to be in the conversation early again on the rise, and he wouldn't be a total surprise today if he shook off a bit early.
Race Summary	This looks like a fun spot, and 9/5 morning-line favorite #2 Loyal Company is another to consider. Communication Memo gets a pass from me on the last two based on timing and distance, and I think we'll see better from him this afternoon.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#4 Boppy	She's going to take cash, but she looks like she's going to be pretty tough in the finale. She handled the turf nicely enough last time out, and she has a little bit of route pace in a race without much serious early burn on paper. Single in the multi-race plays for me.
#15 Calm Cool	Third start of the career could bring out something better, as I still have a feeling there might be a little bit more here. Interesting enough to use if she goes.
#3 Scatlie	Stretchout player should be in a good spot near the top after the useful sprint debut, and she wouldn't be any real surprise with some logical second-start upside.
Race Summary	Boppy should be tighter for this second turf start, and she should be in line for a great trip right up on manageable splits. Think you can lean on her late today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:07 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#8 GINAMAYA (6-1)	Major threat if she handles turf; dam was Grade II winner on dirt for same barn.
#9 SOUPER TROPICAL (8-5)	Saved ground, rallied between in mid-stretch, flattened out, now drops.
#2 ABSTRACT MOMENT (2-1)	Rallied into fast pace to finish second in the same spot.
Race Summary	GINAMAYA was vet scratch before she ran her last two races, but she showed enough on race day to warrant a second look in this spot. She led most of the way at 6F on the main track two back, then ‘steadily advanced’ mid-turn but flattened out against a next-out, repeat winner in her most recent start. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#4 MILITARY HOP (7-2)	First or second in 10 of 12 starts at Laurel, should get jump on main rivals.
#1 HE HATE ME (5-2)	Packs late wallop despite 0-8 mark at 7F, lack of pace a concern.
#5 AMEDEUS (5-1)	Can be excused for latest, won off similar freshening at this level in race prior.
Race Summary	MILITARY HOP figures up-close at his best distance with the switch to Acosta and he could parlay a tactical advantage into a victory. He finished second to speedball His Name is Sue (17-32, $372k) at this level two starts back at 6F. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#5 SEVILLE ROW (9-2)	Needs some pace flow in bid to surpass $100k in grass earnings.
#4 NICKY BEAR (6-1)	Yet to hit board on turf but numbers translate well to this level.
#8 SOUTHPAW MIKE (5-1)	Changed tactics, raced close-up until stretch when claimed, takes class drop.
Race Summary	SEVILLE ROW, one of two entrants to win on the turf, left too much work to do but finished third in a one-mile turf race dominated by deep closers. He switches riders again and tries to end long winless drought. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:07 AM

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - July 8

Jul. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 ACE OF CLUBS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Ace of Clubs	D Van Dyke
PLACE	5-1	5	Halo Uncle	A Aguilar
SHOW	5-2	6	Eligio	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Salsation	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	2-1	2	Prime Time Porta	R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #2 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	5	Trojan Way	A Aguilar
PLACE	3-1	3	Lucy L	R A Vazquez
SHOW	7-2	2	Talkative Gal	A Alsagoor
WILD CARD	2-1	1	Shvere Arbeter	G Franco

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Movinglikeawinner	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #3 $45,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	3	Benedetta	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-1	5	Tambo	R A Vazquez
SHOW	2-1	2	Kaliforna K	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Hayley Amber	D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Ifuaintfirsturlast	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Misty Muppet	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

RACE #4 $8,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:38 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 OIL CAN KNIGHT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	3	Oil Can Knight	R A Vazquez
PLACE	7-2	6	Facts Matter	A Alsagoor
SHOW	5-2	2	Big Cheddar	C Ortega
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Speeding Style	D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Awesome Heights	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Debt Monger	B Harvey

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #5 $45,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:11 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-1	1	Worcester	J J Hernandez
PLACE	15-1	7	Mucino	D A Herrera
SHOW	8-1	9	Pure Fire	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	15-1	6	Happy Tears	A Aguilar

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Adventuresome	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Flat On	E A Maldonado

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 6/7/9 BOX

RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	3	Tigers Arrow	R Ramirez
PLACE	8-5	5	Charlies Ghost	G Franco
SHOW	6-1	6	Danzing Dream	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Distant Steppes	A Alsagoor

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	We Need Marketing	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Laoch Aloysius	C Ortega

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #7 $25,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Spoiled Rotten	A Alsagoor
PLACE	9-5	2	Teen Drama	A Cedillo
SHOW	5-2	5	Hot Thoughts	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Dallas Alice	E Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	Rosy Edge	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Roman Empress	K Frey

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #8 $47,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 BELLA RENELLA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Bella Renella	G Franco
PLACE	8-1	4	Everlys Girl	E A Maldonado
SHOW	8-1	1	Kiss My Kat	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Dont Ju Forget	R A Vazquez

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	3	Essential Business	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	La Deuxieme Etoile	M Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

RACE #9 $125,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:13 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $125,000 LOS ALAMITOS DERBY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	15-1	6	Abeliefinthislivin	R A Vazquez
PLACE	8-5	3	Skinner	M E Smith
SHOW	7-5	2	Reincarnate	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Smart Mo	J Bravo

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Prince Abu Dhabi	A Chavez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Yellow Brick	H I Berrios

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
COMMENTS: ABELIEFINTHISLIVINs last race was better than it looks with better fractions. SKINNER drops from the Santa Anita Derby where he finished third by less than a length. REINCARNATE last ran in the Kentucky Derby but has some good works getting prepped for this. SMART MO won his debut with a solid performance from start to finish.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:07 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - July 8

Jul. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	1	Sugar N Spice	J L Ortiz
PLACE	3-1	6	Devil At Midnight	S Bridgmohan
SHOW	5-2	3	Exhilarate	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Magic Cross	J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	La Picasita	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Dorothys Dreams	J Castellano

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #2 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:36 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Cool Quartet	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-5	4	Drink the Wind	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-2	6	Caribbean	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Zertz	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Moliere	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Forever Wicked	J R Martinez

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

RACE #3 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:09 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 DORAL

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Doral	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	8	Spun Special	J Castellano
SHOW	9-5	9	Portage	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Risk Free	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Empathy	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Party Is Over	D Davis

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX

RACE #4 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	6	Bouncer	J L Ortiz
PLACE	6-1	3	Leddy	J Castellano
SHOW	3-1	2	Handsome Cat	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Fenwick	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Return the Ring	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	On the Come Up	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #5 $350,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:09 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $350,000 SUBURBAN STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Tonal Impact	J L Ortiz
PLACE	3-5	4	Charge It	J R Velazquez
SHOW	6-1	5	Unbridled Bomber	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Red Run	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Clapton	E Jaramillo

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: TONAL IMPACT is not more than a length and half from winning his last 10 starts. UNBRIDLED BOMBER has not run since May but has a string of good workouts getting ready. CHARGE IT should improve in his second start after a layoff. CLAPTON is another coming off the bench with decent workouts and black class.

RACE #6 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 LOON CRY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	10	Loon Cry	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	9	Weekend Rags	J Castellano
SHOW	5-1	4	Royal Dancer	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	2-1	13	Miss Stones	J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Robyn and Eli	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Ranting	L Saez

* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 4/9/13 BOX

RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:11 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 DOTS DOLLAR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Dots Dollar	J L Ortiz
PLACE	8-1	1	Twenty Four Mamba	J Rosario
SHOW	3-1	2	Majority Partner	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Business Model	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	7-5	4	Vittorio	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Milton the Monster	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX

RACE #8 $500,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $500,000 BELMONT OAKS GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	5	Prerequisite	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	2-1	1	Mission of Joy	T Gaffalione
SHOW	15-1	2	Strikingly Spun	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Aspray	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Be Your Best	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Papilio	J Castellano

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
COMMENTS: PREREQUISITE ran the highest last race speed figure in a Grade II win. MISSION OF JOY won four of five on the turf with a third. STRIKINGLY SPUN showed more late stamina last out and has a nice work between races. ASPRAY is unbeaten in three and showed major improvement in her last.

RACE #9 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	11	Inflation Nation	D Davis
PLACE	9-2	8	Appraise	F Prat
SHOW	10-1	4	Drakon	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Elusive Edge	J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Sosua Summer	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Famous Gent	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 11-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/11 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX

RACE #10 $750,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:49 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $750,000 BELMONT DERBY GRADE I

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	8	Kalik	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-1	10	Redistricting	F Prat
SHOW	4-1	5	Far Bridge	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Silver Knott	R Mullen

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	11	The Foxes	O Murphy
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Mondego	J Rosario

* EXACTA: 8-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX
COMMENTS: KALIK upped his speed figure in the four races after his debut. REDISTRICTING won his debut with ease as the favorite. FAR BRIDGE is a nose and a length from being unbeaten in four. SILVER KNOT is making the third start after a layoff and has a bullet work between races.

RACE #11 $175,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:21 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $175,000 VICTORY RIDE STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	6	Downtown Mischief	J Lezcano
PLACE	9-5	5	Maple Leaf Mel	J Rosario
SHOW	5-1	2	Dazzling Blue	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Interpolate	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Red Carpet Ready	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	4	Adelieses Smile	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
COMMENTS: DOWNTOWN MISCHIEF has four wins and a second in five starts. MAPLE LEAF MEL is unbeaten in four and none of them were close. DAZZLING BLUE is undefeated in three and none of them were close either. INTERPOLATE has been working well for her first race since April.

RACE #12 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:53 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Blue Plate Special	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	1	Screw Loose	D Davis
SHOW	10-1	14	War Prince	D Davis
WILD CARD	4-1	15	Uncle Marty	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Leftembehind	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Sinaloa	J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-14 BOX, 14-15 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/14 BOX, 1/14/15 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:08 AM

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - July 8

Jul. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 RIVER BOY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	River Boy	C J Lanerie
PLACE	9-5	5	Mad Adam	J Gilligan
SHOW	6-1	6	Pico dOro	L Machado
WILD CARD	9-2	3	Primer Dimer	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Santa Cruiser	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Commander Carl	J Rocco Jr.

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #2 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	Nullify	M Chuan
PLACE	3-1	5	Collins	D Cannon
SHOW	4-1	1	Truth Explained	C Landeros
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Beaudacious Colton	R Miranda

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Pretty Fast	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	King Bukele	I Ayala

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #3 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 GET BY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	9	Get By	M Murrill
PLACE	6-1	10	Mischievous Gal	D Cannon
SHOW	5-1	3	Requestforproposal	J Rocco Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Amandas Challenge	T Heard

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Newyearspresent	M Chuan
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Blossom Diva	Y Navas

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX

RACE #4 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Jackies Spirit	J Talamo
PLACE	7-5	8	Storm Haven	C J Lanerie
SHOW	9-2	3	Bolts Babe	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Alter the Stars	C J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	4	Elegant Moves	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Bamberooski	W A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX

RACE #5 $100,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $100,000 DADE PARK DASH STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Release McCraken	F Arrieta
PLACE	7-2	1	Mounsieur Coco	M Chuan
SHOW	5-1	6	Chiseler	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Midnight Taxes	M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Major Blue	M Michel
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Bal a Kazoo	J Rocco Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
COMMENTS: RELEASE MCCRACKEN tries grass for the first time but his pedigree suggests he should take to it. MONSIEUR COCO is also making his first try on grass but his two for two record on all weather says he should be able to handle it. CHISELER ran the highest last race speed figure and has some good works between races. MIDNIGHT TEXASs last race was better than it looks with faster fractions.

RACE #6 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 J LS ROCKETTE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	5	J Ls Rockette	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	8-5	1	Jersey Pearl	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-1	7	Fashion Rage	J Talamo
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Kant Believe It	C J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Lets Be Clear	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Punchy Girl	M Michel

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #7 $30,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	10-1	5	Hes a Angel	D Cannon
PLACE	9-2	4	Mahoney Road	C J Lanerie
SHOW	3-1	1	Moon Cat	J E Lopez
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Uncle Berley	C A Emigh

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Impulsiveness	R Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Ben Dreaming	J Talamo

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

RACE #8 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	2	Loyal Company	D Cannon
PLACE	4-1	6	Kings Glory	J Talamo
SHOW	6-1	1	Communication Memo	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	5-2	7	Quick Hammer	M Chuan

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Easy Fast	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Nullarbor	J E Lopez

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX

RACE #9 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Boppy	C Landeros
PLACE	3-1	3	Scatlie	M Chuan
SHOW	4-1	2	Just Say So	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Pool Noodle	J Talamo

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	16	Tiger Tap	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	13	Snow Princess	C J Hernandez

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:08 AM

Monmouth Park Tip Sheet - July 8

Jul. 07, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 WHATS GOOD

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	10	Whats Good	J A Vargas Jr.
PLACE	5-1	8	Dixie Groove	A A Rodriguez
SHOW	8-1	4	Silver Sprinter	I Castillo
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Amaretto Sour	J Torres

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	Payout Ratio	M Olver
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Grace in Motion	J A Batista

* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/10 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX

RACE #2 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:07 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 DART

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1	Dart	S Marin
PLACE	7-2	7	Zs So Good	J A Gomez
SHOW	3-1	6	Reckless Place	J Rendon
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Super Rocker	M Olver

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Aztec Legend	J A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	My Eagle Soars	R Mitchell

* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

RACE #3 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Shiny Slam	C Olivero
PLACE	7-2	3	R Tootsie Glitter	J C Ferrer
SHOW	3-1	5	Blueberry Indygo	I Castillo
WILD CARD	9-2	7	One Tough Dame	J A Vargas Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Sistren	C E Rojas
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Valiant Majesty	J Rangel

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 CENTURION

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Centurion	J A Vargas Jr.
PLACE	5-2	5	Your Analysis	C E Rojas
SHOW	12-1	6	Antonov	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Agarramesipuedes	J Torres

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Okletsgo	S Marin
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Westover	J Rendon

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #5 $55,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	7	Zingales King	J Rendon
PLACE	5-1	10	Bigly Deal	R R Maragh
SHOW	9-2	5	Aves Makin Waves	G Huayas
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Walking Testimony	J A Vargas Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Horsepower	S Marin
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Lake Chapala	I Castillo

* EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 4/5/10 BOX

RACE #6 $71,875 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:58 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Maxs Glory	J A Vargas Jr.
PLACE	4-1	3	Jersey Perfection	C E Rojas
SHOW	3-1	8	Alpha Company	J C Ferrer
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Island Spirit	M Rowland

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Slew of Talent	J Torres
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Im On Fire	J Rendon

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

RACE #7 $18,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	11	Dream Astray	J A Vargas Jr.
PLACE	7-2	3	Hashtag No Wonder	J Rendon
SHOW	6-1	7	Exuma	S Marin
WILD CARD	4-1	12	Restored Order	J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	13	Rerally	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Shimmering Leroid	J C Ferrer

* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/11 BOX, 3/7/12 BOX

RACE #8 $10,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:54 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Pudding	I Castillo
PLACE	7-2	3	Commanding General	G Huayas
SHOW	3-1	4	Drenas Star	N Juarez
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Aequor	S Marin

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Dee Bo	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Dizzy Gillespie	A A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #9 $85,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:21 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	6	The Classy One	J A Gomez
PLACE	5-2	1	Bramble Bay	I Castillo
SHOW	8-1	8	Mias Crusade	J Torres
WILD CARD	7-2	12	Riding Pretty	J Rendon

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	10	Beach Daze	A Bowman
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Precious Avary	S Gonzalez

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/8/12 BOX

RACE #10 $25,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	1	Road to Stardom	N Juarez
PLACE	3-1	6	Fatih	J A Gomez
SHOW	9-2	7	Rol Again Dancer	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Lookin Super	L R Rivera Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Awesomebrotherbill	P L Cotto Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Cantankerous Cat	J Rendon

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

RACE #11 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:19 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	8	Sailors Return	J Torres
PLACE	12-1	6	Stirlings Gold	S Marin
SHOW	5-2	1	Rugged Union	N Juarez
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Triple Start	J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Larger Than Life	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Bramble Blaze	M Rowland

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #12 $6,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	3	Astonishing Anabel	M Olver
PLACE	5-1	7	Mo Town Annie	J C Ferrer
SHOW	6-1	8	Maartys Dilemma	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Holy Berries	C E Rojas

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Redhairedcolleen	M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	6	Cupids Payday	J Torres

* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:09 AM

Belmont Park Hotlist - July 8

Jul. 06, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
8^th race [Belmont Oaks (G1), 1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:09 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 8, 2023

Jul. 06, 2023

Race 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis | Saturday July 8 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern
Indiana Derby – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile on and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds
Main Contenders:

Steve Asmussen may have a late blooming three year old stakes winner on his hands in the form of Onthestage (4). The colt made his career debut in January in a two-turn race, likely not because Asmussen was trying to get him ready to the Road to the Derby but more likely because the cold isn’t bred to sprint at all. The colt finished sixth that day then improved a bit to finish third in career start #2, then regressed and finished seventh in his third start towards the end of March. When Onthestage returned to the races in late May, he was a different, and MUCH BETTER, horse, as he rallied from sixth to win by a head at a mile, then three weeks later the colt ran a BREAKOUT race when visually impressively rallying from seventh to third on the turn, then bolted away to a four length lead in a sixteenth of a mile before coasting home to a six and one-half length advantage That effort on June 17 earned Onthestage a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure which not only is the best last race figure in the field, making it the fastest last race in this group, it is tied for the best figure by any horse in this field. Verifying (5) earned a 102 figure when winning in January then again when second by a neck this spring in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Tapit Trice. Considering Onthestage is making his third start off a layoff and bound to improve, and opening at 10 to 1 odds, he’s the one to bet, if not to beat, in this year’s Indiana Derby.
Act a Fool (3) is the horse Onthestage has to catch to win, as he is was won three in a row leading from start to finish and gets a good inside post to get the lead form the start again. There is potential for Transect (1) to try to repeat his wire-to-wire win in his most recent start on May 22 at a Mile, in an allowance race, but Act A Fool may not let Transect have the lead, and if Transect does get to the front that’s not a problem for Act A Fool anyway as he stalked the pacesetter in second for a half-mile before drawing off in March, the first of a series of four wins in a row he brings into this race. As such, opening at 6 to 1 odds for the strong Rivelli barn, which just had its top three year old Two Phil’s retire, Onthestage gives us a second horse which could be profitable betting to win.
Minor contenders:
Verifying (5) opens as the 8 to 5 favorite more on the strength of hype than form. He has two career wins in eight starts to his credit, consisting of his maiden win in a sprint last summer and an allowance level win around two turns in January with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure which was exceptional at the time for the division. However, Verifying finished fourth as the favorite the next month in the Rebel, then somewhat redeemed himself when beaten a neck by Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass Stakes, getting back to the 102 figure level. After setting a blistering early pace for a half-mile in the Kentucky Derby before fading to 16^th, Verifying patiently stalked the pacesetter in second for seven furlongs in the Matt Winn Stakes last month, made the lead in the stretch, but was beaten a half-length on the wire. Considering he led late and settled for second in both the Blue Grass and Matt Winn, I’m going to take a stand against Verifying winning the Indiana Derby.
Hayes Strike (7) oddly opens as the second choice on the morning line. He was no match for the aforementioned Two Phil’s in the Ohio Derby two weeks ago when third, beaten twelve lengths at the end, but did win the Texas Derby at the end of May with a 100 figure. He does have a big late kick and will need Act a Fool, Transect and Verifying to all battle for the early lead on faster than average fractions, to set up his late kick for a victory, which I feel is unlikely. However he is definitely a contender for a runner-up or third place share as he will be passing a bunch of horses late.
Bets:
Win Bets: Onthestage (4) and Act a Fool (3) should both be considered for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more. I would absolutely bet both to win if above those odds given the value offered in a race where the first and second morning line favorites appear vulnerable.
Exacta: Onthestage (4) and Act a Fool (3) over Onthestage (4), Act a Fool (3), Verifying (5) and Hayes Strike (7)
Box Onthestage (4), Act a Fool (3), Verifying (5)
Box Onthestage (4), Act a Fool (3), Hayes Strike (7)
By playing all three exactas above we are maximizing our chance at a nice profit.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-08-2023, 08:09 AM

Ellis Park Hotlist - July 8

Jul. 06, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) River Boy won easily last time and from the rail can make it two in a row. (3) Primer Dimer can bounce back here. (7) Commander Carl returns to a winning level. (4) Santa Cruiser could be a factor at the end. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-7. Doubles: 1-3-4-7 with 1-3-5.
2nd race – (5) Collins is a firster from Walsh who looks best here. (1) Truth Explained seems primed for a strong debut. (3) Nullify should not be overlooked. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5.
5th race – (5) Release McCraken could be capable of a big effort while switching to turf. (1) Mounsieur Coco will be better suited by turf. (2) Bal a Kazoo won his last and merits suspect. (6) Chiseler might perk up on turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6.
8th race – (7) Quick Hammer makes his 2023 debut and can start on a winning note. (2) Loyal Company will welcome a return to a sprint distance. (6) King’s Glory looks like the one to catch in this field. (8) Itzos should respond to the turnback to a sprint. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-6-7-8.
9^t^h race – (2) Just Say So is overdue for a maiden win and should collect one here. (1) Pool Noodle looks like a talented first-time starter who can make her presence felt. (3) Scatlie was a fast-closing third in her debut and cannot be ignored. (4) Boppy was a good third in her turf debut and fits in nicely with this group. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-4.

**ConleyPicks** · 07-08-2023, 12:00 PM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Minnesota w/Gray -120 over Baltimore

**ConleyPicks** · 07-08-2023, 12:00 PM

Free play from Totals4U

Saturday Free Selection: New York Mets/San Diego Padres over 8

**ConleyPicks** · 07-08-2023, 12:01 PM

Free play from #1 Sports

Saturday's Free Play: Cleveland Guardians - 170