Tuesday 7/11/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#4 Pat'ssewingmachine	He made a little move before going one-paced in the final yards of that last one, but I think his ability to settle and finish a bit should serve him well against this group that might have a few moving in the wrong direction late.
#7 Malibu Rumble	He'll need something better than he has shown so far this year if he's going to land this one, but he meets a softer bunch today than he has seen in most of those other lines on his page.
#5 Dust Storm	Would have considered him on top at a price if the race flow were a bit friendlier on paper, but he ran his only good career race here, and maybe the change in scenery will wake him up enough to stick around for a piece.
Race Summary	Pat'ssewingmachine might still have some upside after just two starts, and I think he's going to get a pretty good setup with a few potentially stubborn forward players ahead of him.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#4 Village Queen	Think she has a little price appeal in here, as she might be able to settle in just behind a couple potentially quicker players early, and she can get first jump on the serious deep players. Capable of better in the second run off the break.
#7 Toolcat	She just handled some of these and fits right back on race shape again today from off the splits, but I am not sure she caught everyone on their best day in that one. Capable underlay?
#2 Dana's Beauty	She might appreciate getting back around two turns after a couple sprint superfecta finishes, and her route form here last season was pretty formidable if the stretchout gets her back to it.
Race Summary	Village Queen should be a decent price and might get a decent tracking run of things today, and she just looked a little tired late last out like a horse who might benefit from having that run under her belt.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#3 Change the Hour	He only went evenly in his first start at this level, but I am hoping he can turn a plugging effort into a mid-range price score this afternoon. He might get towed along early and be in position to assume command if the pace stops. Not impossible at a number.
#1 Blown Out	He showed some improvement second out while getting his feet on the local footing for the first time, and he draws for a better trip to maybe save a little ground before finding his way through. Dangerous.
#10 Yardman	He wouldn't be any surprise in a race where most of them own a bunch of quitting running lines, as he has shown a little bit of finishing ability in his two local races. Clear chance to pick them up late.
Race Summary	Change the Hour might get the right kind of run from midpack with these, and I'm willing to give him another chance at this level with the two best races on his page having come in his two cheapest races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Fort Erie - Race #5

#1 MORE SAVVY (6-1)	Steps up off win at distance, one of two entrants with a win this year.
#6 ZAFEATHER (5-2)	Towers over field on paper, steady work tab for seasonal debut.
#7 FRESH DREAMS (8-1)	Second in short and long sprints last month, good record locally.
Race Summary	MORE SAVVY tracked and ran past the pace-setting favorite on the stretch-out to 6-1/2F and remained eligible for this spot in doing so. He often races wide and must negotiate the inside post today. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #6

#7 ACTION POINT (4-1)	Rallied wide, leveled off in the slop after time away, switches pilots.
#1 MORNING THOUGHTS (5-2)	Just missed after stretch-long duel in first start off the claim.
#2 JAMAICAN JIMMY (3-1)	Found Lasix and blinkers of little help, makes second start off layoff.
Race Summary	ACTION POINT, far back early on a sloppy track, made up some ground while 5-wide in the stretch against some of the same rivals he meets today. He benefits from an extra half-furlong in his second start off an eight-month layoff. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #7

#2 LUNATICA (9-2)	Move forward off latest makes her good value play in first try on the grass.
#6 SEEDS OF GRANDEUR (3-1)	Win and a third at good odds in two starts on the lawn.
#7 HEAR ME KNOCKING (2-1)	Drops below winning claim level and sheds blinkers.
Race Summary	LUNATICA rallied mildly behind the two favorites in an improved second start off the layoff. She should be forwardly placed on the stretch-out in distance and on turf for the first time. Bet to win and place and play a 2-6-7 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 4:34P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * FIRST ELKTON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaste r Power Rating. RAPUNZELS SONG: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SIGNATURE CALL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Ho rse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NO JOKING MATTER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
1	FIRST ELKTON	9/5	7/2
11	RAPUNZELS SONG	3/1	9/2
7	SIGNATURE CALL	5/1	8/1
4	NO JOKING MATTER	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	HURRICANE LASSIE	5	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	73.5	41.8	34.8
1	FIRST ELKTON	1	9/5	Front-runner	66	62	69.2	58.8	53.8
11	RAPUNZELS SONG	11	3/1	Front-runner	62	61	62.0	49.5	45.5
2	ANGELSNDISGUISE	2	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	50.8	34.4	19.9
4	NO JOKING MATTER	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	77.3	47.2	38.2
7	SIGNATURE CALL	7	5/1	Trailer	0	0	31.3	50.2	43.7
10	SEMINOLE MIDNIGHT	10	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	57.8	18.0	0.0
8	LIGHT UP MY LIFE	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	49.0	21.6	5.6
3	SPOTTY SHOWERS	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	47.6	13.9	0.0
9	PURELY MINE	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	36.0	25.6	8.1
6	GET STORM AWAY	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	36	18.2	16.6	5.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia DownsPURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 2	.20 PICK 3 (Races 2-3-4) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR
Claiming $5,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $13,200 • Post: 8:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 11, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DISTINCT APPROVAL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DISTINCT APPROVAL: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. ENJAY'S BRASS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WHERETHEMONEYWENT: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. SPY A STAR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. ASTARTOBE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's thi rd or fourth start after a layoff.
2	DISTINCT APPROVAL	15/1	9/2
3	ENJAY'S BRASS	10/1	7/1
6	WHERETHEMONEYWENT	4/1	8/1
7	SPY A STAR	12/1	8/1
1	ASTARTOBE	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	DISTINCT APPROVAL	2	15/1	Front-runner	69	67	65.6	61.2	51.7
4	HARLONS COMMISION	4	5/1	Stalker	68	59	67.6	58.0	52.5
1	ASTARTOBE	1	3/1	Stalker	69	66	55.2	62.2	52.2
3	ENJAY'S BRASS	3	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	75	63.8	63.8	54.8
7	SPY A STAR	7	12/1	Trailer	75	70	41.8	63.0	53.5
6	WHERETHEMONEYWENT	6	4/1	Trailer	73	65	39.2	64.8	61.3
5	THATSALOTOFBLING	5	9/5	Alternator/Non-contender	72	60	52.0	61.2	53.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A STATE BRED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 LADY TEUFLESBERG 5/1
# 1 STAY HOME MAMA 8/1
# 7 CAPTIVATING CARA 5/2

LADY TEUFLESBERG gets the edge as the bet in here. This mare looks good in this race since Buckley has a solid win percent with horses going this distance. Has been racing quite well and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. STAY HOME MAMA - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. CAPTIVATING CARA - With a nice class fig average of 80, has one of the best class advantages in this group. I would think about this mare on the rider and handler numbers alone.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,900 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#6 TIZ A RUSH (ML=7/2)


TIZ A RUSH - Faced tougher last time out at Thistledown. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of choice plays.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MANGA MAN (ML=2/1), #3 VICTORY DIVISION (ML=5/2), #2 HENRY THE CAT (ML=4/1),

MANGA MAN - This favorite ran on May 23rd and hasn't had a drill since then. VICTORY DIVISION - This animal hasn't shown very much in the last pair of races. Recent deteriorating Equibase speed figs of 76/73/65 give a clue that this animal may be going off form. HENRY THE CAT - Should be difficult for this mount to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 TIZ A RUSH to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 59

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 TU ROYAL 7/2
# 1 TOUR DE' PORT 3/1
# 8 NAPABIT 4/1

I think TU ROYAL is a solid choice. Players have been noting speed boosts from entrants changing equipment (blinkers on today). With Santiago on top her, this filly ought to be able to break out early for this event. Has a very solid shot in this competition if you like back class. TOUR DE' PORT - Should best this group of horses in this race here, showing very good figs of late. Should wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. NAPABIT - Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the front end recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:01pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#6 LAYTOWN (ML=3/1)
#2 CRACK THE CODE (ML=3/1)


LAYTOWN - Faced tougher last time out at Parx Racing. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. You have to really like that last race speed fig, 72, which is the highest recent race fig of this bunch. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Hernandez, and this one could bound home the winner. CRACK THE CODE - This beautiful animal is racing on the turf for the first time. He should be tough, coming off a third place finish in his race on November 20th on a sluggish track. Strong return on investment for this rider and handler twosome. Horses that finish 2nd in Maiden races and finish well clear of the show horse are generally good bets next time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISCHIEF WARRIOR (ML=4/1), #4 RUN FOR KARL (ML=9/2), #9 SMILIN JACK (ML=5/1),

MISCHIEF WARRIOR - The fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. RUN FOR KARL - You believe this horse is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't win frequently. This racer ran a disappointing speed rating last out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's event running that number. SMILIN JACK - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of efforts.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CRACK THE CODE - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This thoroughbred is tops in the group and has a good shot to beat this crew.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 LAYTOWN on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	6 with 2 with [1,5,9] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	6 with 2 with [1,3,5,9,12] with [1,3,5,9,12] Total Cost: $20