Monday 7/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:39 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 17, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway starts the week with a $10,000 guaranteed pool in the 0.50 Pick 5 that begins in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 EST PM)

2-Keystone Phoenix (4-1)-Was put away in October after a lame scratch. Knows how to win and has gate speed when 100% ready to battle. This is the 4th start of the year, closed willingly when shook free in last. Gets post relief from the 7-hole and could leave in this spot.
3-Conboyville (7/2)-Stratton worked a 2-hole trip and wore down Brackley Beach (4), grinding 1st over. Could get a close-up seat again and best to not overlook.
5-Flow With Joe (7/2)-Wasn't going to win last week but did jump over something on the track going down the stretch and broke. Drops in a race without a standout and could be a player with a good steer from Siegelman.

Race 10 (10:00 EST PM)

5-Heart On My Sleeve (8-1)-Suffered a break at the start due to broken equipment last week. Was dead on the board and the Blumenfeld barn has been as cold as ice over the last 30 days (0-56). Will need a trip to beat this kind but has 7 pictures in 27 starts at YR and has more will than a few of these.
7-Alotbettor N (7/2)-Simply put this is a handy horse who knows how to win and does just enough to do so. Has the gate speed to race near the top of the stack. Looking to take 4 straight pictures, 2 in a row versus this kind, and could win another with the same effort as last week.

Race 11 (10:20 EST PM)

1-Genuis Man (2-1)-Lost all chance with an interference break at the start and now drops to the level of the previous race. Came off cover to win at 10-1 that night and could have the same outcome here at a much smaller price.
7-Luckbewithalex (9/2)-Will take a swing for a solid price with this Koch entry in his 4th start since shipping in from PcD. Comes off an even effort versus 3-5 year-old Open company and now drops. There are some older foes in this field but could be a threat if Brennan has the pedal down and gets the top without much trouble.

Race 12 (10:40 EST PM)

1-Son Of A Tiger N (5/2)-Didn't look great on the track in a no-move mile from the 6-hole. The veteran is good at times and not. This is a difficult race to read and Buter could be working with a different horse tonight from the rail.
2-Diamondbeach (8-1)-Made a rare break at the start and lost all chance. Wired the NW10kL5 in the previous start and will look for a similar effort tonight.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,3,5/5,7/1,7/1,2
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:40 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#8 Crabapple	Think she might have a claim on this at a mid-range price in a spot where the Hamm barn might take a bit of cash after dominating these types of races over the last couple years. This debuter comes from one of the few other capable local teams with this kind.
#4 Rotondo	Not sure you're getting the 10/1 ML price for the barn that rules the roost at this level locally while getting Morales up to ride, but she seems like a pretty obvious one to put on the list to check out on the tote and track ahead of this.
#6 Maiden Lane	She's another from the Hamm barn who figures capable right out of the box, so see how they both look on the track, but I'm guessing the jock named on Rotondo suggests that's they think that's the better runner?
Race Summary	Crabapple might be ready to roll today, and I'm hoping a couple players from the leading 2-year-old trainer's barn might keep the price just playable enough.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#2 Captain Courtney	She'll get a class test after a couple of really impressive scores, and she proved she handled the local footing quite nicely in that last score, too. Tactical speed might not get outrun on the cutback.
#7 Late Frost	She makes a lot of sense right back after a sharp stakes win to kick off her campaign, and she gets the perfect draw to prompt the pace throughout and move when asked. Tough.
#3 Scottish Symphony	Her form is all over the place, but she has faced some groups on tougher circuits than this, and she might be a good fit at this level locally. Think her best stuff keeps her there.
Race Summary	Captain Courtney steps up off two romping scores, and I think she might be quick enough to keep pace on the cutback -- think she might join the scene today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Super Geuse	Her form is wildly inconsistent, but there are a couple of mildly decent efforts on the page going long, and she might offer a playable number while finding a really bad race for the level.
#8 You Looking at Me	She's another with hit-or-miss form, but she's capable of something better than she showed in that last one, and she has done a lot of her work with better than she's going to find today.
#1 Path to Victory	She seems capable while trying this level for the first time, but she has already had a lot of chances, and most of them have been forgettable. She makes a good deal of sense on class and her better form, but you can count me out if the price gets short.
Race Summary	Super Geuse probably takes a little bit more cash than her 12/1 ML offering suggests, but that's probably an indication of the overall weakness of this group, too. Think one of her better tries would keep her there.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:40 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#5 KANCANCUTIE (7-2)	Projects ideal trip, changes riders, can reward loyal followers.
#3 MARTIQUE MISS (5-2)	Ninth jockey change in row for Asmussen class dropper, will be running late.
#6 WAIT ON ME (5-1)	Broke maiden at 6F with Green aboard at Fair Grounds.
Race Summary	KANCANCUTIE checked out of contention two starts back at odds-on, then gained steadily but ‘just not enough’ in a long sprint last out. She can stalk and pounce for a victory in her third start at the bottom level. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#1 LEXINGTON DIAMOND (7-2)	Beaten fave in last pair, shortens up, alert break is key.
#7 SHE’SMYSMOKESHOW (10-	Has speed, been lacking stretch kick, drop could be the answer.
#6 CONTEMPO GRAY (5-2)	Rallied for second at Sam Houston and Will Rogers in four starts this year.
Race Summary	LEXINGTON DIAMOND was in prime striking position going a route of ground in her last two starts despite troubled starts. She gave way in the final furlong as the favorite and the track vet voided a $15,000 claim on her before she took a class-drop for her latest try. Give her one more chance with a win and place bet.

Louisiana Downs - Race #6

#4 PLUM WINE (5-2)	Shuffled back, rallied wide, surged late in her first start, take right back.
#5 RONNIE’S DEAL (3-1)	No breathers dueling on the front end, tired in stretch against Plum Wine.
#1 OVERCAST (8-1)	Draws rail, barn is on 5-for-19 run with debut runners.
Race Summary	PLUM WINE, unhurried while 4-wide early, circled rivals on the turn and ‘closed ground quickly’ in a heavily-bet debut. She gets an extra half-furlong to run and can upgrade to a victory with second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 5	$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 4 (races 5-8) $.50 Wheel
Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $8,700 • Post: 8:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 17, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. COMPLEX JUSTICE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COMPLEX JUSTICE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Clas s Rating at the distance/surface. PRETTY STORMY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DONNELS CREEK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" de signation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HIDDEN RULER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	COMPLEX JUSTICE	9/5	7/2
3	PRETTY STORMY	5/2	6/1
1	DONNELS CREEK	9/2	9/1
2	HIDDEN RULER	5/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	COMPLEX JUSTICE	4	9/5	Front-runner	83	76	73.6	71.4	64.4
2	HIDDEN RULER	2	5/1	Stalker	81	68	49.2	64.2	58.7
1	DONNELS CREEK	1	9/2	Stalker	80	69	48.0	64.2	59.7
3	PRETTY STORMY	3	5/2	Trailer	81	72	43.6	76.2	73.2
5	TEN TWENTY NINE	5	6/1	Trailer	77	65	36.4	63.2	53.2
6	QUAD EIGHTS	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	61	66.8	56.2	45.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana DownsPURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / .20 Pick 6 Jackpot
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 3:58P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MARTIQUE MISS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WAIT ON ME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. KANCANCUTIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	MARTIQUE MISS	5/2	9/2
6	WAIT ON ME	5/1	5/1
5	KANCANCUTIE	7/2	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	KANCANCUTIE	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	62	59	61.4	56.0	49.5
3	MARTIQUE MISS	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	72	61	52.6	52.0	48.5
6	WAIT ON ME	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	62	45.6	54.4	49.9
8	KAYLEE'S SHADOW	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	48	25.0	46.0	36.0
1	RECLAIMED	1	9/2	Trailer	61	53	37.8	43.2	35.2
2	BE BO	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	40	42	67.3	38.4	24.9
4	HIT'EM UP	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	42	56.4	36.6	24.6
7	BELL PEPPER	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	45	34.8	37.0	24.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #7 - Post: 6:33pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#4 DO YOU BILEVE (ML=6/1)
#1 SUPER EMPIRE (ML=3/1)
#3 STONECOLD STUNNER (ML=4/1)

DO YOU BILEVE - Could be a possible overlay in today's race at morning odds of 6/1. Finished fourth in last race at Prairie Meadows but was close at the finish. A wise man taught me to bet on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this animal. This mare's last speed rating recorded on Jul 1st is tops in last race speed figures. SUPER EMPIRE - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +177. Faced tougher last out at Lone Star Park. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders in this race. STONECOLD STUNNER - This thoroughbred should be rumbling down the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MARINA'S GOLD (ML=9/5), #6 SUGAR BELL (ML=9/2), #5 MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM (ML=5/1),

MARINA'S GOLD - This favorite hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning activity since last race. Finished second in her most recent performance with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch. SUGAR BELL - Awfully difficult to play this racer when she hasn't been showing any gumption recently. Most unsatisfactory speed figure last time around the track at Prairie Meadows at 1 mile. Don't think this mount will improve too much in today's event. MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM - This entrant just hasn't looked ready lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 DO YOU BILEVE to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4] Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 JEFF FA FA 5/2
# 9 IN THE DEEP 15/1
# 2 UNBROKEN STAR 9/2

JEFF FA FA is my choice. Have to think this animal will make a good showing again today. With a solid rider who has won at a very strong 21 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top picks. Keep this gelding in your exotics as Bynoe has given backers some double digit gains. IN THE DEEP - Has to be considered against this group displaying respectable numbers lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 84 under similar conditions. He has a good opportunity in here as handler, Wise, has very solid win rate with horses going this distance. UNBROKEN STAR - With a reliable 87 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. He has a good opportunity in this event as conditioner, Brown, has strong win rate with horses going this distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 CHARMED (GB) 5/2
# 7 STRANGE ARRANGE 3/1
# 1 TWIRLING MAMBA 7/2

CHARMED (GB) figures to be the bet in here. Last time out, this gelding faced a tougher crew. The average class fig of 88 makes this horse tough to beat. Has been running admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. STRANGE ARRANGE - Is tough not to look at based on Speed Figures which have been strong - 82 avg - of late. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the front end recently. TWIRLING MAMBA - He has put up competitive figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this group. Garnered a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-17-2023, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #5 - Post: 2:50pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $38,400 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#6 SONNET (ML=6/1)
#4 LADY JASPER (ML=2/1)

SONNET - Sub-par outing last out at Thistledown was due to the off-going (she finished fourth). Have to give a better effort right here on a non-sloppy track. LADY JASPER - Torrealba and Hamm partnered up are a handicapper's friend. Aboard this horse on Jun 5th and Torrealba is yet again in the irons this race. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of readiness there is. Look at that last one - 47.4. Very impressive. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that to continue in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BROWNIE (ML=3/1), #7 CROSSED UP (ML=9/2), #3 SALUTE THE KID (ML=6/1),

BROWNIE - A strong racer that's been running well, but she's been off the track in the mornings of late. CROSSED UP - Not likely that the speed rating she notched on Jun 12th will be good enough in this event. SALUTE THE KID - Can't really be sure that the most recent rating of 60 is legitimate since it was acquired in the slop. Looked like she was in good form on June 27th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 SONNET to win if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	6 with 4 with [2,3,5] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	6 with 4 with [2,3,5,7,8] with [2,3,5,7,8] Total Cost: $20