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This potential World Series preview concludes in Arlington today, and I like the home team to grab the cash. The Texas Rangers will snap this two-game skid by getting a solid effort from Martin Perez against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Perez has shown his prowess at home, more so than he has on the road, as evidenced by his 3.48 ERA in Arlington. In comparison, he's got a 5.98 ERA away from home. Perez, who is 3-1 in eight home starts, is also 3-1 with a 1.66 ERA in six Interleague starts this season.
In fact, Perez has thrived against the oppo league the past three seasons, going 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA over 16 appearances (14 starts). Amazingly one of the teams he's never faced during his career is the Dodgers, so I would imagine he'll be up for this one.
Los Angeles is pitching Emmet Sheehan, who might be 3-0 this season, but who also has a 4.91 ERA on the year. That number balloons to 6.30 away from Dodger Stadium.
And what's stood out most is the progression - er, digression - over his five starts this season. He went from allowing no runs in his MLB debut on June 16, to giving up 2, 3, 5 and 4 earned runs in his next four starts, respectively. Today he faces his toughest opponent.
Play the Rangers, who avoids being swept by grabbing the series finale.
The Seattle Mariners haven't swept a series since late May, spanning 16 series. With a pitching advantage today against the Toronto Blue Jays, I like our chances in this spot.
I'll insist on both Bryan Woo and Alek Manoah, but I'll tell you I'm more intrigued about going against the latter.
Let's start there, as Manoah has struggled with inconsistency all season for the Jays, resulting in a 2-8 mark and 6.18 ERA. Over his last seven starts, the right-hander is just 1-5 with an 8.31 ERA, during which he's allowed six home runs. He faced the Mariners in Toronto back on April 28, but didn't get the decision after turning in five innings of two-run ball. But he did allow six hits, including a home run.
Now he's facing a Seattle squad that not only has won three in a row, but has taken 12 of 18 in July behind a steady offense that has hit 21 homers in those games and averaged 4.6 runs per game along the way.
We're better served backing Woo, who might be 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA this season, but has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. He'll be hungry for a bounce back after allowing six earned runs in his last start, against the Twins in Seattle.
Take the M's, as they get their first series sweep in 17 sets, and continue their pursuit for a wild-card berth.
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