Tuesday 7/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#8 Kotylos	Yeah, his form is starting to give the impression of a guy who maybe doesn't want to win, but he should be in a dreamy spot spying the speed from the outside, and a couple confirmed forward players might give him the right race shape to graduate today.
#5 Nature Trail	Pace has put things together in those last two, including getting DQ'ed from a 38/1 win a couple starts ago, but I like that she proved that effort wasn't a fluke with the good try last out. Capable.
#7 Donahue	He battled early before giving way in the debut run, but he draws wider today and may not have to hustle quite as much out of the gate. Wonder if he might have some price upside.
Race Summary	Kotylos should get a great trip today while tracking the sharper splits, and I think there are some halfway decent players in some of those company lines -- found the right group?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#1 Jazz Time Girl	She's not meeting a ton of super serious early burn in here, so she might be able to have a go for it from the fence and could stick around better today after fading behind a longshot winner last out.
#3 Uptown Charlotte	Think she probably legitimized her form enough in that good run last out to ensure the price gets a lot shorter this time around, but she has turned into a fairly reliable late runner who figures for a piece again here.
#5 Broken Love	Expected better from her last time out, but she turned in another flat effort for her second dull try in a row after the sharp comeback run. Maybe she's done regressing off that today?
Race Summary	Jazz Time Girl has inside pace and could stretch these out just a little bit, and she seems to be rounding into form through her three races so far this year. One more step forward would do it.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 She's Rednecker	She turned in the rare dull run last time out, but she hasn't been seen since that March try and didn't get back on the tab until June, so I'm thinking we can forgive her for that effort and assume she's got room to bounce back today after the clunker.
#5 Calvary Kat	She was super sharp in the debut win here a couple weeks ago, rolling by and coming away for an easy score, and there might still be a bit of room to come forward today in just this second start.
#7 Dreamful	She is another with really reliable form, but she has settled for a lot of underneath shares and might find one or two of these a bit too good again. She is one of the ones here, but she's almost sure to get bet below fair value.
Race Summary	I think this is a really fun race, and I think you can legitimately make a decent, price-dependent case of some sort for every runner in here. I'm maybe most interested to see #4 Shorty Mac who took a big step forward against a cheaper group off the bench last out -- she's got some upset potential.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:34 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Fort Erie - Race #4

#8 RED ZEPPELIN (6-1)	Led at stretch call in three straight before bumpy break off layoff.
#5 PRINCE FOR A DAY (8-1)	Good move after slow start in grass debut, another price play to consider.
#1 VERY DEBONAIRE (5-2)	Lone entrant to finish in the money on turf, exits MSW ranks too.
Race Summary	Woodbine invader RED ZEPPELIN can be excused for a troubled seasonal debut, making him a good value play off a string of good workouts. He can use his speed well from a favorable post, sheds 11 pounds and wears blinkers for the first time. Play 5, 8 with 1, 3, 5, 8 with ALL trifecta.

Fort Erie - Race #6

#5 ACTION POINT (4-1)	Ideally spotted in third start of cycle, can’t seem to avoid wide trips.
#3 WILLBEFORCE (3-1)	Awakened in second start on the main track with blinkers added.
#1 WORKIN OUT (2-1)	Raced close-up for a half-mile against better rivals in last two turf go-rounds.
Race Summary	ACTION POINT rallied for a Maiden Special Weight victory and an allowance runner-up showing in his last two long sprints. He raced extremely wide in a pair of shorter sprints to start his 4-year-old season but appears well-spotted if he handles the turf. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #7

#5 WEST PAW (10-1)	Back with own kind in third start for barn, worth a price stab on best.
#4 JUNGLE GODDESS (9-2)	Went wire-to-wire in her last two starts at this distance.
#1 REIGN BY REIGN (8-1)	Finished second on fast and sloppy tracks in last two main-track sprints.
Race Summary	WEST PAW was outrun on the turf and in a fast starter allowance on Woodbine’s all-weather track, but if she can return to her form before the claim, she looms an upset possibility to pad a $129k bankroll. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 7	$1 CLASSIC HI-5 / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR
Optional Claiming $15,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 10:05
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING $15,000 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MARKET KING: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MR. DAZZLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. STAY HAPPY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
8	MARKET KING	9/5	4/1
7	MR. DAZZLE	5/1	6/1
2	STAY HAPPY	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	STAY HAPPY	2	8/1	Front-runner	92	94	92.0	86.8	80.3
8	MARKET KING	8	9/5	Front-runner	94	90	86.6	93.8	90.8
3	ITSTHATTIME	3	4/1	Front-runner	93	86	65.0	80.5	70.0
5	REAL GRACE	5	6/1	Stalker	95	93	73.5	88.9	79.4
4	BRODY'S STREAK	4	10/1	Stalker	92	90	73.2	84.6	70.6
9	TRUMP UM	9	20/1	Stalker	89	91	72.6	85.2	74.7
7	MR. DAZZLE	7	5/1	Trailer	94	99	58.6	83.0	75.5
1	TOIL AND TROUBLE	1	25/1	Trailer	88	80	58.4	80.8	67.3
6	TOTALIZER	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	83	54.2	70.8	57.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort EriePURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 4	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $21,300 • Post: 5:54P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(LIMITED TO 8 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * RED ZEPPELIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PRINCE FOR A DAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
8	RED ZEPPELIN	6/1	5/2
5	PRINCE FOR A DAY	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MISS D'S PRIDE	2	15/1	Front-runner	62	49	109.0	29.4	17.4
9	INFINITELY KATZ	9	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	85.3	51.2	38.7
7	FIRST ROUND	7	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	84.1	50.5	37.5
3	RELOAD BULLET	3	3/1	Front-runner	0	0	59.6	44.2	36.2
8	RED ZEPPELIN	8	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	72	64	60.1	63.9	56.9
4	BEYOND TALENTED	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	55	52.2	41.6	30.6
1	VERY DEBONAIRE	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	46	31.3	43.6	37.6
5	PRINCE FOR A DAY	5	8/1	Trailer	0	0	53.1	54.0	45.0
6	CHICAGO FREDDY	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	67.2	39.0	29.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:35 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 70

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 ACTION SEEKER 2/1
# 2 FAVORABLE RETURN 5/1
# 3 BREAKOUT STAR 5/2

I've got to go with ACTION SEEKER. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 62 - of his last race. Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been decent - 61 avg - of late. FAVORABLE RETURN - Could provide positive returns based on solid recent speed figs with an average of 60. Has garnered reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. BREAKOUT STAR - Must be considered based on the very strong speed fig earned in the last affair. With a nice class figure average of 78, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,300 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#8 BABA LOOEY (ML=5/1)
#3 TIDE RISING (ML=9/2)
#2 TRAITOR AMONGST US (ML=5/2)

BABA LOOEY - Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the power to make his presence felt. This horse picks up a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can add to that bankroll right here. TIDE RISING - Paucar rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last out and comes right back in today's contest. Faced tougher last out at Thistledown. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of contenders. TRAITOR AMONGST US - This gelding should give a strong account of himself in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WEEKEND BUZZ (ML=3/1), #7 ACCURATE (ML=6/1),

WEEKEND BUZZ - Had to give me much more last race out. Never made much of an impact. ACCURATE - Nice race on Jun 13th at Thistledown, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 BABA LOOEY is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 70

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TALE OF THE DRAGON 12/1
# 2 UNCLE KENNY 3/1
# 6 HECTOR 7/2

TALE OF THE DRAGON is the most favorable bet in this contest and could score at a price in here. He is worth a look given that the handler wins 33 percent of his races with two-year olds, which is surely among the most competitive in the race. Rice has a decent chance every time he puts a 2 year old on the track. UNCLE KENNY - Cannot be ignored - Potts is a strong conditioner with the babies, winning 21 of his races. Prominent in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field. Demonstrates the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 65 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this group of horses in this race. HECTOR - He looks like a very solid contender based on sire's progeny results as two-year olds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2023, 05:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:56pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 43

Rating:

#2 TOWN CRIER (ML=6/1)

TOWN CRIER - Sophisticated analyzers will tell you that this entrant has strong pace. Trainer Heinen moves this horse to a lower class rank to face a lower rated field. Look for a good performance given this drop. He has the topmost (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ONE ACE (ML=5/2), #4 UNCLE O. G. (ML=3/1), #5 SPAN (ML=7/2),

ONE ACE - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a sprint event to be any kind of value at short odds in a sprint. UNCLE O. G. - More than enough efforts at FanDuel Horse Racing with no trips to the victory podium. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list. SPAN - 7/2 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when looking at the most recent showings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - TOWN CRIER - Posting three superb speed ratings in the last three contests. This thoroughbred is primed to beat these ponies today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 TOWN CRIER to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Tuesday 7/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 7/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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