Tuesday 7/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#3 Valiant Victoria	Think she's worth a bit of a price look while rising off a good debut at the $15,000 level, and a few of the more obvious players want to do their best running late, maybe giving this one a jump that gives her fans a thrill.
#5 Efficacious	She showed a similar style to the top choice in her debut run, but she already proved a good fit at the local level on class. Reasonable upside here makes her dangerous.
#1 Alhaan	Late runner's best effort came in her only lifetime sprint run here a couple starts back, but that came with a cheaper claiming bunch, so I think she's probably best used underneath here.
Race Summary	Valiant Victoria and Efficacious both showed some chasing pace in their respective debut runs and bring upside today, but the former should be a much better price while rising in class today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#6 Nice Ace	He might offer a price that's just playable enough while looking for a repeat in this race, and the presence of the second choice might help keep the price just playable today. First-over trip if he can hang with this guy....
#2 Buy Land and See	He has faced better in most of his starts while racing on the New York circuit, and all of his recent trips to Pennsylvania have resulted in easy stakes wins, so he's the one to beat again today.
#4 Extrasexybigdaddee	He's a really honest finisher who woke up when getting back on the local footing again a couple starts back, and he might be able to plug along late for a piece of this. Thinking one of the top two will be a bit too tough for him.
Race Summary	Nice Ace and Buy Land and See seem very tough to get past in this one, but 'Ace should offer a slightly better price with a draw that might let him prompt the chalk the whole way once they start the real running.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Blown Out	I wonder if he took a step back last time out off the good local run in June, and he'll now get around two turns for a barn that has hit with four of 11 similar runners going long here the last couple of years. Price might be just fair enough.
#2 Nathaniel's Hope	Honest finisher has already had his share of chances, but he has been a pretty good fit with this kind in recent starts and makes some sense in a spot where a one-paced kind of plugging effort might do.
#5 Long Rap Sheet	Tough to read these types. He'll probably take enough money to be fairly unappealing on the win end, and I think he's a question mark while continuing his class descent in declining form. I'm going to stand against, but I don't think he'd be a huge surprise.
Race Summary	Not sure what to make of Blown Out just yet, as the two-back run showed enough punch to make him interesting at the local level before a dud last out, but his barn does really good work with two-turn maiden claiming types here and might have this guy ready for better.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#3 OUCH OUCH OUCH (4-1)	Ended long Parx drought in style, plays catch-me-if-you-can again.
#7 WE BE THERE (10-1)	Improved try for new barn, many checks in many tries at this level.
#2 SINGINTHRUTHESTORM (9-5)	Led at stretch call and held for minor awards in last three months.
Race Summary	OUCH OUCH OUCH set a comparable pace to a same-day, $16,000/nw2 mile while he turned his lead into a romp at 1-1/16 miles. He back-pedaled readily against better rivals prior, but he can repeat in the lead role again. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #7

#3 TEXAS TED (6-1)	Launched bid on turn, bumped repeatedly by fave in stretch, put up through DQ.
#7 HARLEY’S CHARLY (5-1)	Improved with Lasix, went down fighting against odds-on winner.
#2 INDYBOUND (7-2)	Steady sprint form out of town, gets class relief on cutback from one-mile test.
Race Summary	TEXAS TED rallied between rivals on the turn, appeared to have the better of a stretch-long battle with the drifting favorite and won through disqualification. He gets Paco to ride and gets a repeat call for a hot barn. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #9

#4 R FUNNY BIZNESS (4-1)	Back in comfort zone in second start locally, switches pilots again.
#8 FLASHING DIAMOND (9-2)	Classy 8yo is 9/3-4-1 in last nine dirt sprints with Pennington aboard.
#11 SHESASUPERFREAK (5-1)	Sped off to two wins and three near misses in last nine starts, all from post 6 inward.
Race Summary	R FUNNY BIZNESS rallied to win her last two main-track sprints at Tampa Bay Downs and is eligible for this condition by a week. She tired going a route of ground in her Parx debut but she’s a $67k earner at 6F in a field that is a combined 28-125 at the distance. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 4	Pick 4 (4-7) / Pick 3 (4-6) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 4-5
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 48 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 10 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MRS. JACKIE V.: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BOSTON FAN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LUZ BRILLANTE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LA BELLA GINA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. REGINA ISABEL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7	MRS. JACKIE V.	2/1	5/1
1	BOSTON FAN	7/2	6/1
9	LUZ BRILLANTE	3/1	8/1
2	LA BELLA GINA	4/1	8/1
4	REGINA ISABEL	9/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	NOCHE ESTRELLADA	5	10/1	Front-runner	42	40	54.4	24.4	8.4
7	MRS. JACKIE V.	7	2/1	Front-runner	48	43	52.4	40.4	34.9
9	LUZ BRILLANTE	9	3/1	Front-runner	51	40	48.2	32.0	24.5
2	LA BELLA GINA	2	4/1	Trailer	49	45	40.6	42.2	35.7
10	SORPRESIVA	10	10/1	Trailer	37	18	30.8	27.0	10.0
1	BOSTON FAN	1	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	50	46	45.4	42.8	35.8
4	REGINA ISABEL	4	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	49	49	37.4	38.8	36.3
3	JOSELYN RUBY	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	41	45.2	26.2	14.2
8	PSYCHO LADY	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	34	26	42.6	28.0	13.0
6	MASCARILLA	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	37	37.2	17.8	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort EriePURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 3	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Maiden Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 5:26P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, IF FOR $3,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MISS D'S PRIDE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MISS D'S PRIDE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. PRINCE FOR A DAY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. WIN THE DRAW: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. BEST AND FINAL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. FIRST ROUND: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.
3	MISS D'S PRIDE	6/1	6/1
8	PRINCE FOR A DAY	2/1	6/1
9	WIN THE DRAW	15/1	7/1
5	BEST AND FINAL	5/1	8/1
7	FIRST ROUND	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MISS D'S PRIDE	3	6/1	Front-runner	59	54	93.2	43.2	34.2
8	PRINCE FOR A DAY	8	2/1	Stalker	56	62	65.8	57.2	52.2
7	FIRST ROUND	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	58	70.8	52.9	41.9
5	BEST AND FINAL	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	52	59.0	45.6	38.6
9	WIN THE DRAW	9	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	75	62	22.1	41.3	30.8
1	LADY OF THE FORT	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	26.2	20.7	2.7
10	BROADWAY RUCKUS	10	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	51	22.8	37.9	24.9
2	AMEN TO THAT	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	16.3	35.6	23.6
4	THIS CAT IS BY JAX	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	UNBRIDLED INFERNO	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8 - Post: 6:09pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#8 VAMONOS (ML=7/2)
#7 BLOWN OUT (ML=8/1)
#5 LONG RAP SHEET (ML=3/1)


VAMONOS - I really like that latest race on July 10th at Presque Isle Downs where he ran third. Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. BLOWN OUT - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +89. This jockey/handler duo has done well together over the last twelve months. LONG RAP SHEET - Good return on investment for this rider and conditioner twosome. This horse didn't run well on a track listed as good in his last race around the track at Laurel. You should disregard that showing. Last raced at Laurel carrying 9 pounds more. The lower weight in this event should serve him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NATHANIEL'S HOPE (ML=5/2), #3 POINT LOMA (ML=6/1),

NATHANIEL'S HOPE - This less than sharp equine has no victories at Presque Isle Downs. POINT LOMA - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 VAMONOS to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,7,8] with [5,7,8] with [4,5,6,7,8] with [4,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29700 Class Rating: 75

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OPTIONAL OR OHIO BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 RIGHT TRAPPE 9/2
# 5 BALLROOM BLITZ 8/1
# 2 ANNMARIA 5/2

I've got to go with RIGHT TRAPPE. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. Has to be considered against this group displaying formidable numbers recently and an average speed rating of 71 under similar conditions. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Gonzalez will most likely have this mare in excellent position to win the race. BALLROOM BLITZ - Will probably go to the front end and may never look back. Don't let this mare slip past you. Could win at a juicy mutuel. ANNMARIA - She has a very strong distance/surface win record - 7 - 20. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 67 speed figure earned in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BEYOND BEST 5/2
# 1 GRAND PICK 7/2
# 4 LAYTOWN 4/1

BEYOND BEST has a respectable shot to take this race. Is a solid contender based on numbers earned lately under today's conditions. Should be given a chance - I like the figures from the last race. He has decent class ratings, averaging 84, and has to be given a chance in this contest. GRAND PICK - Will almost certainly come out solid - I have liked the way this colt has moved sharply to the lead recently. Has been running admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. LAYTOWN - He has been running soundly as of late while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Has very good front-end speed and will probably fare very well against this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#6 TEQUILA EMPIRE (ML=5/1)
#3 DERBY WIFE (ML=8/1)


TEQUILA EMPIRE - Another way to evaluate class is earnings per race. This mount has the top in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish. DERBY WIFE - Faced tougher last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Reed. Better be careful of this angle. This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +21. That recent bullet 103.4 work shows that this filly is ready for a top race today. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the 2nd time. This one fits the bill.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 KETO FRIENDLY (ML=1/1), #2 LEAPIN LEVA (ML=9/2), #4 DERBY BARBIE (ML=5/1),

KETO FRIENDLY - The morning-line favorite is suspect here with the lack of workouts. LEAPIN LEVA - Doesn't appear to have enough positive aspects to justify the reward. DERBY BARBIE - Don't think that this filly has value at 5/1 this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 TEQUILA EMPIRE on top if we're getting at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip