Saturday 7/29/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:32 AM

Race of the Week: DeFrancis Dash at Laurel | Saturday, July 29

July 27, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
The final Saturday of July sizzles with a series of national sprint races of high repute. The Vanderbilt at Saratoga, the Bing Crosby at Del Mar and the Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash at Laurel Park spotlight this weekend's need for speed. The 6-furlong DeFrancis Dash, which debuted in 1990, goes as Race 9 on the card in Maryland, where a quartet of stakes will be offered on the day.

Field Depth:
Grade 3 winners WONDRWHERECRAIGIS and LIGHTENING LARRY own the field's signature scores, while Grade 2-placed SYNTHESIS has been keeping the strongest company lines in New York. THREES OVER DEUCES is a stakes winner and multiple Grade 3-placed. Three others will be making a rise in class.

Pace:
LADNEEDSAHANDLER should deliver rail speed and be challenged early by WONDRWHERECRAIGIS, SIR WELLINGTON and LIGHTENING LARRY. There's a solid pace here and to win up front will be to have earned it.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-LADNEEDSAHANDLER: Maryland-bred former claimer comes off a sharp win at 5-1/2 furlongs but takes a major rise in class and likely buckles at 6 furlongs against this quality of competition. Cross-entered Sunday at Laurel and would not be surprise to scratch.

2-WONDRWHERECRAIGIS: Runner-up in the DeFrancis each of the past 2 years (disqualified from the score in 2021 and placed second), this Laurel specialist is 6: 4-2-0 over the track lifetime. But note he's won just 1 of his last 6 and 3 of those losses have come at 4-5 odds or lower. His peak form is now 18 months in the rearview mirror, though still dangerous.

3-SYNTHESIS: Late-running 7-year-old is cross-entered in the same-day Vanderbilt at Saratoga, but would fit better in this spot. He has alternating good-and-bad efforts in 9 straight races and is on the "bad" trend now after a second-place effort in the Grade 2 Nerud at Belmont. Does get a good pace set-up for his style to succeed.

4-SIR WELLINGTON: Delaware-based runner makes just his second van ride to Laurel, running second in an allowance here in October 2020. Second-best after dueling with DeFrancis re-matched rival Lightening Larry last time out. The last 3 times he was successful were all wire-to-wire efforts. He needs the lead and might not get it.

5-THREES OVER DEUCES: This 8-year-old is 29-for-57 in the exacta lifetime and also over 50% in the exacta both at Laurel and at 6 furlongs. He's lit the superfecta in 10 of his last 11 starts and has been in the exacta in 6 of his last 8. It's about long-range consistency. The concern: his only poor effort on Preakness Day came in his only race without Lasix, and this race will be Lasix-free as well. That Maryland Sprint was exceptionally fast, however, and far stronger than this with national raiders.

6-LIGHTENING LARRY: Rides 2-race winning streak in listed stakes at Monmouth and Delaware Park while the field's hot hand. He won the 2022 Chick Lang on Preakness week 2022 in his last trip to Maryland. Florida and Jersey-based Jorge Delgado is hitting 22 percent this year and sire Uncaptured's offspring have a solid 18% win rate at Laurel on the dirt. Daniel Centeno invaded here to win the 2015 DeFrancis aboard Gentlemen's Bet and has a big chance to repeat that. Has speed, but showed in the Mr. Prospector at Monmouth that he can sit and pounce.

7-HOLY SYNCHRONICITY: Versatile pace style comes in handy with an advantageous outside draw to let the race unfold inside of him. But career allowance type has never faced this quality and has won just 1 of his last 10. Often settles for the minor awards and his $10,000 sales buy owes no one anything having earned more than $220K to date.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
LIGHTENING LARRY is in absolute peak form, is a pure 6-furlong sprinter and doesn't have to be scrapping for the lead to still be successful.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HOLY SYNCHRONICTY should get a great trip and can pass some horses for a minor share of the exotics at a price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$90 win LIGHTENING LARRY. $10 exacta LIGHTENING LARRY over THREES OVER DEUCES.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:33 AM

Jon White: Jim Dandy Selections, Geaux Rocket Ride Wins Haskell

July 26, 2023 | By Jon White
Forte, runner-up in the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 10 while making his first start since April 1, heads a field of five entered in Saratoga’s Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes this Saturday (July 29).

Voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male after winning the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Forte lost only once in five starts at 2. He ran fourth in Saratoga’s Grade III Sanford Stakes.

Forte is making his ninth career start this Saturday. This will be his first race with blinkers. Even though Forte won the Grade I Florida Derby and finished second in the subsequent Belmont in his two most recent starts, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is adding blinkers to the colt’s equipment to try and get him to focus better in competition.

“Pletcher believes Forte ‘lost concentration’ on the far turn of the April 1 Florida Derby but proved good enough to overcome it in defeating Mage by one length,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening wrote this week.

Four weeks later, Mage won the Grade I Kentucky Derby. Forte had been installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the Run for the Roses, but the Violence colt did not start as a result of being a vet scratch the morning of the race.

“After missing the Kentucky Derby due to a bruised [right front] foot, Forte went into the Belmont Stakes off a 10-week layoff and again appeared to lose focus at a crucial stage of the race before re-rallying to get second narrowly over stablemate Tapit Trice,” Grening continued.

In my Belmont Stakes recap for Xpressbet.com, I wrote: “This was an especially admirable effort by Forte in defeat. At the top of the stretch, you no doubt thought you were going to lose if you had a show parlay riding on Forte when he was sixth and about six lengths off the lead. But even though he raced so wide into the lane and was coming off a 10-week layoff, Forte managed to finish second while losing for only the second time in eight lifetime starts. Even though Forte didn’t win the Belmont, I have even more respect for him than ever before after he ran as well as he did under the circumstances to finish second.”

Further explaining the equipment change to have Forte race with blinkers in the Jim Dandy, Pletcher was quoted as saying in the NYRA press office’s Jim Dandy preview: “It’s hard to think about making a change off multiple [good performances] in a row, but he’s always been a very intelligent colt and he’s gotten a little more complacent. Everything comes so easily to him that he was maybe getting a little wise to it. We just need him to get a little more focused.”

Forte wore blinkers last Saturday (July 22) in a workout on the Saratoga main track with Emmanuel, who won the Grade III Poker Stakes on turf June 10 at Belmont Park. You can watch this team drill on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/violence/...uly-22nd-2023/

Equibase has Forte being clocked four furlongs in :50:00, while Emmanuel’s time is listed as :50.14. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard Forte.

Daily Racing Form timed Forte working four furlongs in :50.09, going in splits of :12.56 for the first furlong and :24.66 for the initial quarter-mile.

“Forte got his last quarter in :25.43 but did gallop out clear of Emmanuel through five furlongs in 1:02.78 and six furlongs in 1:15.31,” Grening wrote.

“You could see going to the [half-mile] pole he was locked in, he was a little more aggressive going to the pole, then settled into a good rhythm,” Grening quoted Pletcher as saying. “Irad said during the gallop out when he asked him he responded right away and didn’t seem to care what his workmate was doing as much.”

On Jan. 14, Forte worked in company with Grand Sonata on Saratoga’s Oklahoma training track. Equibase lists each colt being timed four furlongs on a wet track rated good in :48.90. You also can watch this workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/violence/...uly-14th-2023/

Grand Sonata has lost eight in a row since winning the Grade III Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 1, 2022.

It was after Grand Sonata stayed a length or so ahead of Forte when they were galloping out that Pletcher and Ortiz felt that trying Forte with blinkers probably was the right thing to do.

Forte no doubt will be favored at a short price in the Jim Dandy. Mike Repole, who owns the colt in partnership with Vinnie and Teresa Viloa, is confident that Forte will win the Jim Dandy.

“You’re going to see Saturday what I know I see -- the best 3-year-old in the country win the Jim Dandy at 3-5,” Repole was quoted as saying on the DRF website Wednesday (July 26). “That’s what you’re going to see and then you’ll [have] the Travers favorite.”

Repole’s confidence notwithstanding, I am not going to make Forte my top pick in the Jim Dandy, mainly because he no doubt will be a short price in the wagering. As stated earlier, I have much respect for Forte. But insofar as I don’t particularly like it that he seemingly now needs blinkers, I think this might be a good time to take a shot with someone else at a better price.

I am going with Saudi Crown. He had not even been mentioned as being a possibility for the race and then -- surprise! -- the Always Dreaming colt popped up in the Jim Dandy entries.

Trained by Brad Cox, Saudi Crown won his first two races while registering Beyers of 97 and 93, then made his stakes debut in Belmont Park’s Grade II Dwyer Stakes at one mile July 1. I made a win wager on 3-5 favorite Fort Bragg in the Dwyer.

Saudi Crown stepped the first quarter in :22.47, then he reeled off fast splits of :44.63 for the half-mile, 1:08.84 for six furlongs and 1:21.60 for seven furlongs. Coming into the stretch, I thought Fort Bragg was a cinch. I expected Saudi Crown’s early efforts to take a toll on him in the final furlong.

But Saudi Crown battled Fort Bragg tooth-and-nail all the way down to a desperately close finish. Fort Bragg eked out a nose victory. Saudi Crown finished 11 lengths clear of third.

I was extremely impressed by what I saw from Saudi Crown in the Dwyer. My view that Saudi Crown’s Dwyer performance was terrific is supported by his 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Forte? He has never recorded a Beyer higher than 100.

I think there is a chance that Saudi Crown might be able to control the Jim Dandy on the front end without having to go as fast early as he did in the Dwyer, which could make him difficult to catch.

Below are my selections for the Jim Dandy Stakes:

1. Saudi Crown
2. Forte
3. Disarm
4. Angel of Empire

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains Disarm, who finished a creditable fourth in the Kentucky Derby. The Gun Runner colt then won the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes by a half-length at Ellis Park on June 11. Verifying went on to finish second in the Matt Winn, then won the Grade III Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis on July 8 for Cox.

I really believe that there could be huge upside with Disarm. I get the feeling he might get better as he gets older, like a fine wine and like his sire, who reached his best form during the second half of his 5-year-old campaign in 2017.

“He looks so similar to his father, who was third in the [Kentucky Derby] and came back to win the Matt Winn,” Asmussen was quoted as saying in the NYRA press office Jim Dandy preview. “Gun Runner was solid as can be as a 3-year-old and was Horse of the Year as a 4-year-old. We want to allow for that sort of development with Disarm as well."

In 2017, Gun Runner won the Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap by seven lengths in June, Grade I Whitney Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths in August, Grade I Woodward Stakes by 10 1/4 lengths in September and Grade I BC Classic by 2 1/4 lengths in November.

In addition to Saudi Crown, Cox sends out Angel of Empire and Hit Show in the Jim Dandy.

Angel of Empire was my top pick in the Belmont Stakes. He finished in a dead heat with Hit Show for fourth.

Prior to the Belmont, Angel of Empire won the Grade II Risen Star Stakes and Grade I Arkansas Derby prior to finishing a respectable third in the Kentucky Derby.

Hit Show ran fifth in the Kentucky Derby. His lone 2023 triumph came in the Grade III Withers Stakes on Feb. 11.

MANDELLA WINS ANOTHER HASKELL

Richard Mandella now is two for two in Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes.

Back in 2000, Mandella showed up at the Jersey Shore to run Dixie Union in the Haskell. In his most recent start prior to the Haskell, the Dixieland Band colt had finished second as the 4-5 favorite in the Grade III Affirmed Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Chalk bettors took it on the chin when Dixie Union didn’t win the Affirmed. But looking back all these years later, his narrow defeat is forgivable. That’s because he lost to none other to future Hall of Famer Tiznow, who would go on to win the BC Classic in 2000 and 2001, a feat that still no other horse has duplicated.

Dixie Union won the Haskell by three-quarters of a length at odds of 9-2. Finishing second as the 8-5 favorite was Captain Steve for Bob Baffert.

Mandella was inducted into the Hall of Fame the year after Dixie Union won the Haskell. Baffert was enshrined in 2009.

The year after Captain Steve’s defeat in the Haskell, Baffert won the race for the first time with Point Given, followed by War Emblem in 2020, Roman Ruler in 2005, Lookin At Lucky in 2010, Coil in 2011, Paynter in 2012, Bayern in 2014 and American Pharoah in 2015.

Baffert was represented in this year’s Haskell by the favorite, Arabian Knight, who was hammered down to 11-10 favoritism despite not having raced since late January. In his only two starts before the Haskell, the Uncle Mo colt had won a maiden special weight race at Keeneland by 7 1/4 lengths last Nov. 5 and Oaklawn Park’s Grade III Southwest Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track Jan. 28.

But as was the case in 2000, it was Mandella winning the 2023 Haskell while defeating a Baffert favorite. This time Mandella did it with Geaux Rocket Ride, who received a marvelous ride by Hall of Famer Mike Smith.

Close up early in the field of eight, Geaux Rocket Ride moved up to take on the leading Arabian Knight midway on the far turn. Mage then joined them while three wide turning into the stretch.

Arabian Knight dropped back in upper stretch while Geaux Rocket Ride and Mage were locked in a fierce head-and-head battle for the lead. And then, after passing the eighth pole, Geaux Rocket Ride drew clear to prevail by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:49.52. Mage had to settle for second while finishing two lengths clear of Arabian Knight in third. Extra Anejo ended up fourth.

Extra Anejo was my top pick in the Haskell. Importantly, he did not break alertly, which was not noted in the Equibase chart comments. I was disappointed that Extra Anejo lost by 5 3/4 lengths, but I’m not going to judge him too harshly because of his sluggish start and the fact that he was making his stakes debut against such tough opponents.

As for Mage, I loved him to win the Preakness. He let me down by finishing third. As I wrote last week, in Mage’s defense, it didn’t help him in the Preakness that the pace was much slower than it had been in the Kentucky Derby. But I thought Mage would be good enough to win the Preakness even if the pace was moderate. He wasn’t.

I thought Mage was in a perfect spot at the top of the lane in the Preakness. But he had no late kick. He just came home evenly when outrun by National Treasure and Blazing Sevens.

Once again in the Haskell, I thought Mage was in a perfect spot at the top of the lane. This time, he could not keep up with Geaux Rocket Ride in the final furlong.

I would have preferred to see more from Mage during the stretch run in both the Preakness and Haskell. Perhaps he lacked the needed late punch in those races because there were only two weeks between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and because he was a workout or two shy of what his connections would have preferred for the Haskell

“Sometimes you win without winning,” part owner Ramiro Restrepo said to the DRF’s Grening of Mage’s Haskell in which the colt had four published workouts since the May 20 Preakness. “I know he wasn’t 100 percent. He’s 100 percent sound and 100 percent ready to compete, but you know there’s more in the well. You know he’s going to move forward off this race and that’s what you’re looking for.”

Next up for Mage will be his primary summertime target, the Grade I, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 26.

There will be no Travers for Geaux Rocket Ride. Mandella has ruled it out. The colt is back in Southern California and Mandella is not interested in another trip for the colt so soon after the Haskell.

Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen reported that Geaux Rocket Ride “is likely to start against older horses for the first time in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Sept. 2.”

Five 3-year-olds have won the Pacific Classic in its 32-history, starting with Best Pal in the inaugural running in 1991 (I called that official chart for the Daily Racing Form) and followed by General Challenge in 1999, Came Home in 2002, Dullahan in 2012 and Shared Belief in 2014.

Geaux Rocket Ride’s sire, Candy Ride, won the 2003 Pacific Classic by 3 1/4 lengths in the final start of his career. Candy Ride completed 1 1/4 miles in 1:59.11 to set a track record that still stands 20 years later.

Mandella has four Pacific Classic wins to his credit. He sent out Dare and Go to take the 1996 renewal, which put an end to the great Cigar’s 16-race winning streak. Mandella also won the race with Gentlemen in 1997, Pleasantly Perfect in 2004 and the remarkable mare Beholder in 2015. Beholder has the distinction of being the lone filly or mare to have ever won the Pacific Classic.

A NEW TOP BEYER ACHIEVED

Geaux Rocket Ride recorded a 100 Beyer for his Haskell victory, his best figure so far. His previous top had been a 96 when he ran second to Practical Move in the San Felipe. Practical Move was credited with a 100 Beyer in the San Felipe, a figure that he likewise posted in the Santa Anita Derby.

Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Haskell winners going back to 1991 (the first year they were listed in the American Racing Manual):

2023 Geaux Rocket Ride (100)
2022 Cyberknife (102)
2021 Mandaloun (102)*
2020 Authentic (100)
2019 Maximum Security (102)
2018 Good Magic (98)
2017 Girvin (95)
2016 Exaggerator (101)
2015 American Pharoah (109)
2014 Bayern (111)
2013 Verrazano (116)
2012 Paynter (107)
2011 Coil (96)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (106)
2009 Rachel Alexandra (116)
2008 Big Brown (106)
2007 Any Given Saturday (113)
2006 Bluegrass Cat (106)
2005 Roman Ruler (108)
2004 Lion Heart (109)
2003 Peace Rules (109)
2002 War Emblem (112)
2001 Point Given (106)
2000 Dixie Union (111)
1999 Menifee (110)
1998 Coronado’s Quest (110)
1997 Touch Gold (114)
1996 Skip Away (113)
1995 Serena’s Song (110)
1994 Holy Bull (115)
1993 Kissin Kris (108)
1992 Technology (108)
1991 Lost Mountain (107)

*Mandaloun finished second, then was elevated to first via the disqualification of Hot Rod Charlie, who also received a 102 Beyer Speed Figure

OVERLOOKED BY THE BETTORS

As mentioned earlier, Geaux Rocket Ride was sent off as the 11-10 favorite in the Haskell. Linemaker Brad Thomas had made him a 5-2 morning-line favorite. Thomas pegged Mage and Tapit Trice as co-second choices at 3-1, with Geaux Rocket Ride at 9-2.

I wrote last week that I expected Mage to end up being lower than his 3-1 morning line because being a Kentucky Derby winner has a lot of cachet. Well, I was wrong about that. Mage was sent away at 4-1. I had expected him to be 2-1 or 5-2. In fact, according to horseracingnation.com, in the fixed-odds market, Mage did open as the 2-1 favorite by MonmouthBets, followed by Arabian Knight at 5-2, Tapit Trice at 7-2, Extra Anejo at 6-1 and Geaux Rocket Ride at 8-1.

It turned out that Geaux Rocket Ride was 12-1 when he left the starting gate. That’s what you call an overlay, folks. If I had known that Geaux Rocket Ride’s price would be around 12-1, I might have made him my top pick. Consider what I wrote about him for Xpressbet.com last week:

“I think Geaux Rocket Ride also should be taken very seriously. Why? Primarily because of the way trainer Richard Mandella has talked so enthusiastically about him on a number of occasions and the way the Hall of Fame horseman has managed him.”

I noted that after Geaux Rocket Ride won a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 5 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Jan. 29 in his career debut, Mandella ran him next in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4. This indicated what Mandella thought of the colt. You don’t see Mandella do something like that very often.

I felt that what Mandella did with Geaux Rocket Ride was similar to what he had done with Omaha Beach. After Omaha Beach won a maiden race by nine lengths on a sloppy track in his fifth career start, Mandella hiked him substantially in class and ran him in Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes, which the colt won at 4-1.

Geaux Rocket Ride was backed down to 5-2 favoritism in the San Felipe. He ran second to Practical Move. Geaux Rocket Ride then was scratched from the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 8 due to an elevated temperature.

After missing the Santa Anita Derby, Geaux Rocket Ride won Santa Anita’s Affirmed Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths on June 4. Mandella then set his sights on the Haskell with him.

Practical Move, who won the Santa Anita Derby, is the only horse to have defeated Geaux Rocket Ride. Trained by Tim Yakteen, Practical Move has not raced since the Santa Anita Derby. He was scratched from the Kentucky Derby two days before the race when it was reported that he had an elevated temperature.

The DRF’s Andersen provided a Practical Move update last Sunday. The colt recently resumed training at Del Mar, according to Yakteen.

A NEW NO. 1 IN MY 3-YEAR-OLD MALE RANKINGS

Geaux Rocket Ride climbs to the top spot in my 3-year-old male ranking this week after being No. 9 last week. Mage, who was No. 1 last week, drops to No. 4 this week.

Below is my current Top 10 in the 3-year-old male division:

Rank Horse

1. Geaux Rocket Ride
2. Arcangelo
3. Forte
4. Mage
5. Arabian Lion
6. Arabian Knight
7. National Treasure
8. Disarm
9. Extra Anejo
10. Scotland

LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

Following his upset victory in the Haskell, Geaux Rocket Ride has rocketed onto the Top 10 at No. 6 in this week’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. He was No. 30 in last week’s rankings.

This year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4. The $6 milllion Classic will be on Nov. 4.

The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of voters comprised of members of the Breeders’ Cup Racing/Secretaries Panel, international racing and sports media, plus racing analysts.

The rankings will be updated weekly through Oct. 10.

This week’s rankings are below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 315 Cody’s Wish (25)
2. 233 West Will Power (3)
3. 206 Forte (1)
4. 193 Defunded (2)
5. 178 Mage
6. 160 Geaux Rocket Ride (1)
7. 143 Arcangelo
8. 105 Rattle N Roll (1)
9. 86 Charg It
10. 50 Art Collector

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 346 Cody’s Wish (31)
2. 303 Elite Power (4)
3. 214 Nest
4. 203 West Will Power
5. 186 Up to the Mark
6. 158 Clairiere
7. 113 Caravel
8. 107 Defunded
9. 64 In Antalian
10. 42 Goodnight Olive

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:35 AM

Del Mar Tip Sheet - July 29

Jul. 28, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	1	Heartland	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	4	Head Lad	J Bravo
SHOW	6-1	3	Invincible	A Fresu
WILD CARD	5-2	6	A Day to Remember	D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Flight Way	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Slider	H I Berrios

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #2 $84,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 CHERUBIC FACTOR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	4	Cherubic Factor	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-1	7	Zoffarelli	H I Berrios
SHOW	8-1	5	Johnny Podres	G Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Evenerevenworse	A Espinoza

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Standing O	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Nabokov	K J Desormeaux

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #3 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	9	Mr. Chivas	J J Hernandez
PLACE	8-1	12	Buraqs Reflection	K Frey
SHOW	10-1	2	Last Call Paul	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Lord Prancealot	K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Helens Sun	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Just a Guess	M Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 9-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/12 BOX, 2/10/12 BOX

RACE #4 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:39 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	3	Talkative Gal	A Alsagoor
PLACE	4-1	5	Awesome Taylor	R A Vazquez
SHOW	15-1	2	Jacrodras Devil	A Espinoza
WILD CARD	7-2	8	Agreetodisagree	J J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Lucy L	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Pens Street	A Ayuso

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX

RACE #5 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Loterie	U Rispoli
PLACE	3-1	3	Angiolleta	A Fresu
SHOW	6-1	8	Turf Rocket	J Bravo
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Roscoe Village	D Van Dyke

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Auratium	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Blue Oasis	R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX

RACE #6 $14,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:39 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 BLACKENED

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	3	Blackened	E A Maldonado
PLACE	6-1	8	Sugar Sugar	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-2	5	Like No Other	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Back On the Street	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	12	Major Pryce	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Ila Veiw Too	C Figueroa

* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

RACE #7 $55,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	4	Warrens Paradice	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-1	3	Cute Khloe	U Rispoli
SHOW	6-1	12	Port Ellen	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Ankyrah	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	9	Adelie	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Exclusive Joni	K J Desormeaux

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/12 BOX, 2/3/12 BOX

RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:39 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	6	Defunded	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-1	1	Slow Down Andy	M Gutierrez
SHOW	30-1	9	Tisquantum	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	12-1	7	Senor Buscador	G Franco

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Royal Ship	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Brickyard Ride	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

RACE #9 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	12-1	12	Shocking Grey	H I Berrios
PLACE	3-1	9	Ultimate Hy	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-2	4	Impact Warrior	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	6-1	13	Harpers Gallop	J J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Lady Jae	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Pleasant Wave	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 12-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/12 BOX, 4/9/13 BOX

RACE #10 $400,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:39 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	11	Dr. Schivel	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	4	The Chosen Vron	H I Berrios
SHOW	20-1	3	Todo Fino	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Spirit of Makena	J Bravo

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Kid Corleone	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	American Theorem	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/11 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #11 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 10:09 PM ET
BEST BET: #16 YELLOW BRICK

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	16	Yellow Brick	R A Vazquez
PLACE	5-1	8	Chays Tornado	J J Hernandez
SHOW	7-2	4	Smooth Salute	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Watsonville	A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Caribbean King	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	13	Seal Team	R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 16-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/16 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:35 AM

Woodbine Tip Sheet - July 29

Jul. 28, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $9,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 TPRING

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Tpring	L Salles
PLACE	10-1	2	Spirit OTipperary	D Moran
SHOW	8-1	4	Onandonandon	E Flores
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Speedy Johny	J Crawford

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Whisper Me a Song	L Contreras
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Fang Mein Lied	J L Campos

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX

RACE #2 $111,600 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	5	Milagre Do Sol	K Kimura
PLACE	2-1	3	Blackdiamond Dinny	D Fukumoto
SHOW	10-1	1	Yorkshire	S Civaci
WILD CARD	5-2	4	The Archangel	E Wilson

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	8	Playmate	R M Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Anita Margarita	P Husbands

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #3 $61,800 OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:06 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Foxy Diva	R Munger
PLACE	2-1	1	Blueberry Fields	K Nicholls
SHOW	7-2	6	Bequia	L Contreras
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Sweet Nola	E Wilson

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Diosa Catrina	J L Campos
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Royal Blush	L Salles

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX

RACE #4 $111,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Lady Maeve	C Husbands
PLACE	2-1	4	Gayelette	S Vives
SHOW	7-2	3	Kittens Romance	D Carroll
WILD CARD	5-2	8	Aha Moment	S Vives

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Boudica	K Kimura
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Amazin Queen	D Fukumoto

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

RACE #5 $65,900 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	1	Red Sneakers	R W Walcott
PLACE	2-1	8	Vandoo	K Kimura
SHOW	8-1	5	Call for Locates	E Flores
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Meko Makee	O Moreno

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Contrivance	J L Campos
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Chasing Bourbon	L Salles

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX

RACE #6 $111,600 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:41 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	14	Legs Like Flatter	E Wilson
PLACE	3-1	7	War Painter	K Kimura
SHOW	6-1	1	Charlottes Road	P Husbands
WILD CARD	4-1	2	More Money Hunny	R M Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	13	Olivia Rose	D Carroll
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	12	Hurricane Clair	S Civaci

* EXACTA: 14-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/14 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX

RACE #7 $55,000 STARTER HANDICAP 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 PERHAPS TONIGHT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	7	Perhaps Tonight	E Flores
PLACE	4-1	1	Silver Magnatized	R M Hernandez
SHOW	5-2	2	Do You Love Me	K Kimura
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Taquanyah	L Salles

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Plus Power	R W Walcott
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Umneyaat	J Hoyte

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #8 $175,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-5	4	Tyson	R M Hernandez
PLACE	8-1	5	Carrothers	S Civaci
SHOW	12-1	3	Arties Storm	D Moran
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Kingmax	E Wilson

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Clear Destination	R Munger
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Seventyseven Stone	I C Wenc

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #9 $114,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 GIZALA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Gizala	R M Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	3	Devils Bit	E Wilson
SHOW	10-1	6	Whimsical Dance	D Carroll
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Toeris	K Kimura

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	My Girl Sky	R W Walcott
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Buttered Toast	S Chernetz

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #10 $14,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	10	Muskoka Giant	K Kimura
PLACE	12-1	11	Moonquest	E Flores
SHOW	10-1	4	Triggers Bay	S Vives
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Hip to Your Tricks	J Hoyte

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	It Worked	D Fukumoto
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	8	Collaborative	E Wilson

* EXACTA: 10-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/11 BOX, 2/4/11 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:36 AM

Saratoga Tip Sheet - July 29

Jul. 28, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	7	Moonlight	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-5	8	Trade Imbalance	F Prat
SHOW	3-1	5	Frontline Warrior	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Corruption	L Saez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Carsons Run	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Modica	M Franco

* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX

RACE #2 $156,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:11 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	5	Osbourne	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	3	Joey Freshwater	J L Ortiz
SHOW	8-1	6	Scocciatore	L Saez
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Bold Journey	J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	High Oak	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	7	Flokis Flight	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #3 $35,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 LUNA WARRIOR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Luna Warrior	J Castellano
PLACE	12-1	1	Kbcya Later	T Gaffalione
SHOW	9-2	11	War Terminator	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Starrystarryknight	J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Volkert	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Hatch	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX

RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 MOONEY MOONEY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	3	Mooney Mooney	J Lezcano
PLACE	7-2	6	Party At Grants	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-2	1A	Souper Tropical	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Best Coast	F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Souper Slews Cash	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Cherokee Cottage	L Saez

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #5 $156,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 TIZZY IN THE SKY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Tizzy in the Sky	L Saez
PLACE	10-1	3	Bustin Bay	J L Ortiz
SHOW	3-1	4	Ontheonesandtwos	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Good Sam	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Sterling Silver	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	5	You Look Cold	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #6 $88,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1A	Foxy Cara	J Castellano
PLACE	9-2	8	Bomb Squad	J Rosario
SHOW	7-2	6	Starts Now	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Splashy	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	13	Overacting	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	The Splendid One	J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX

RACE #7 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:52 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	11	Skip the Line	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	2-1	4	Dornoch	L Saez
SHOW	6-1	6	Drum Roll Please	F Geroux
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Lambo	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Global Perspective	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Private Desire	J Castellano

* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/11 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX

RACE #8 $350,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:26 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-5	4	Elite Power	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-5	5	Gunite	T Gaffalione
SHOW	10-1	1	Gun It	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Dean Delivers	E Jaramillo

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Little Vic	C Olivero
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Synthesis	M Franco

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #9 $149,500 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:02 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1A	Tough Street	D Davis
PLACE	7-2	5	Expand the Map	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	9	New Ginya	D Davis
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Diamond Hands	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	15	She Caught My Eye	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	11	Spungie	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/9 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX

RACE #10 $500,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	2	Forte	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	1	Disarm	J Rosario
SHOW	5-2	5	Angel of Empire	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Saudi Crown	F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Hit Show	L Saez

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #11 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:19 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	12	Sandys Garden	J A Davis
PLACE	7-2	9	Act of Congress	J L Ortiz
SHOW	4-1	8	Busy Morning	F Prat
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Saratoga Chrome	R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Kerry	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Snowy Evening	J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 12-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/12 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX

RACE #12 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 3/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:52 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	5	Callies Grit	L Saez
PLACE	15-1	2	Laserjet	J Lezcano
SHOW	3-1	7	Shes Mo Bubbly	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Libretto	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	10	Sri Lanka	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	12	Heavenly Appointed	J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:36 AM

Monmouth Park Tip Sheet - July 29

Jul. 28, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $68,750 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 JERSEY GREGG

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Jersey Gregg	P Lopez
PLACE	7-2	9	Vesparo	I Castillo
SHOW	3-1	2	Go to the Kingdom	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	8-1	10	Jersey Perfection	J Rendon

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Changing the Karma	P L Cotto Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Giant James	S Marin

* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 2/9/10 BOX

RACE #2 $10,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:07 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 BODONTKNOW

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Bodontknow	M Olver
PLACE	3-1	2	Warman Road	T McCarthy
SHOW	10-1	3	Running Right by U	J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Bustinupishardtodo	P Lopez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Tiempo Perfecto	L J Luzzi
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Adios Dinero	J A Batista

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #3 $57,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	9	Classy Chick	M Rowland
PLACE	3-1	2	Antenna	J Rendon
SHOW	4-1	6	Gorgeous Girl	P Lopez
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Contessas Song	M Olver

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Hidden Spin	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Dlightful Summer	S Marin

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX

RACE #4 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	2	Dixie Groove	P Lopez
PLACE	9-2	5	Silver Sprinter	J A Gomez
SHOW	5-1	7	Bolt of Paradise	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Amaretto Sour	J A Vargas Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Capture This	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	9	Newtons Star	J Rendon

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #5 $7,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Mister J T	F Gonzalez Jr.
PLACE	4-1	3	Tap First	I Castillo
SHOW	7-2	6	Box of Chocolates	M Olver
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Majestic Tiger	P Lopez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Justinspeightofit	N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Hope for Gold	R Mitchell

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #6 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	13	Triple Start	J A Gomez
PLACE	5-2	3	Proven Hope	P Lopez
SHOW	4-1	6	Rock the Stars	J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Stirlings Gold	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	12	Tap the Candy	A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	11	Constitutional Bid	A A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 13-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/13 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #7 $25,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 ONE TOUGH DAME

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	6	One Tough Dame	J A Vargas Jr.
PLACE	5-1	5	Shiny Slam	L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW	5-2	4	Dialherup	P Lopez
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Blueberry Indygo	A A Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Madelines Grogu	J Torres
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Turn On the Charm	C E Rojas

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX

RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:51 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	9	Lady dOro	S Marin
PLACE	12-1	2	First Joke	F Pennington
SHOW	3-1	6	Crown Imperial	P Lopez
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Omaha Girl	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Shes Fire	A J Ayala
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Velvet Vixen	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

RACE #9 $250,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	7	Shidabhuti	H R Diaz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	6	Miss New York	I Castillo
SHOW	4-1	4	Foggy Night	P Lopez
WILD CARD	3-1	9	Occult	F Lynch

ALTERNATE 1	30-1	2	Atthecrossroads	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Seduction	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX

RACE #10 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Utopia Rose	J C Ferrer
PLACE	5-1	3	Made Birdie	M Rowland
SHOW	7-2	9	Amirati	L J Luzzi
WILD CARD	6-1	5	R Fashionably Late	S Marin

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Fullmoonmagic	F Pennington
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Bright Kohana	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:36 AM

Del Mar Hotlist - July 29

Jul. 28, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Heartland is working quickly for Baffert and should win at first asking. (2) Flight Way gets Mike Smith for his debut and seems set for a big effort. (4) Head Lad gives Baffert a strong hand in this race. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4. Doubles: 1-2-4 with 1-4-6-10.
2nd race – (4) Cherubic Factor should work out a good trip here and can prove best in the stretch. (1) Standing O may get one if he can prevail from the rail. (10) Nabokov could be a factor in his turf debut. (6) Unconquerable Keen could be tough to catch here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6-10.
6th race – (5) Like No Other returns to a claimer and should respond with a winning effort. (8) Sugar Sugar fits in nicely at this level. (7) Back On the Street should be a threat in the late stages. (12) Major Pryce was second last time and is worth a look here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-7-8-12.
8th race – (6) Defunded should be able to lead throughout and post a third straight graded stakes win for Baffert. (1) Slow Down Andy was no factor in the Met Mile but can rebound here. (7) Senor Buscador can be a threat on his best try. (5) American Admiral looks to be on the upswing. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.
10th race – (9) Sibelius appears capable of a big bounce-back victory in this field. (11) Dr. Schivel loves this track and is the one to fear. (1) Hoist the Gold has speed and will benefit from a rail trip. (2) Spirit of Makena seems on edge for his Grade 1 stakes debut. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-9-11.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:37 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - July 29

Jul. 28, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
8^th race [Vanderbilt (G1), 6F] – (4) Elite Power is riding a seven-race winning streak that began a year ago when he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs. Since then, he added four graded stakes including the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and the rich Dirt Sprint in Saudi Arabia. (5) Gunite was second behind Elite Power in Saudi and third at Meydan before a victory in the Aristides at Churchill that earned an enormous speed figure. (6) Dean Delivers ships up from Florida with two wins a row including the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park with the best performance of his career. (1) Gun It was the winner of a top-level allowance at Belmont last month.
9^th race [Alw 149500 N1X, 1 mi TURF] – (5) Expand the Map (B) lost all chance when she had to avoid a fallen horse in the stretch. In her two prior races she was second. (3) Bolivie was third in her first turf race in America in a Churchill allowance after racing in France. Trainer Brendan Walsh has a hot Saratoga barn with a few winners already. (9) New Ginya had two wins from her last three starts working her way through her NY-bred conditions. (4) No Show Sammy Jo was a maiden winner in her second start at Belmont as the favorite for Graham Motion after running fourth at 13-1 in her debut.
10^th race [Jim Dandy (G2), 1 1/8 mi] – (2) Forte had his five-race winning streak, that began at Saratoga last year in the Hopeful (G1), come to an end in the Belmont Stakes (G1) after he had to wait 10 weeks between races after getting scratched from the Kentucky Derby forcing him to also miss the Preakness. He ran well with a long, sustained rally to finish second in the Belmont. He will have blinkers on after wearing them in workouts which improved his focus. (4) Saudi Crown is the only horse in the field without a stakes victory after missing by a nose in the Dwyer (G3) when he raced on the lead going a mile in only his third start. One of three in this race for Brad Cox he is the lone speed and that should help him handle the two-turns and the added distance. (1) Disarm was also a winner at Saratoga as a 2-year-old and then did not start until the Kentucky Derby trail. He was an impressive winner of the Matt Winn (G3) last month. (5) Angel of Empire was the winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) and went on the finish third in the Ky. Derby and fourth in the Belmont.
12^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 3/8 mi TURF] – (9) Fizzy (A) steadied in traffic in her debut for Todd Pletcher, got running late, but galloped out ahead of the entire field. (3) Tawaret (B) was unsettled early in the race and then had to try and rally into a slow pace. (5) Callie’s Grit has three top three finishes this year for Joe Sharp. (7) She’s Mo Bubbly was second in her second try on the turf when she stretched out to today’s long distance.
Best bets: Elite Power (8^th); Forte (10^th). Best value: Expand the Map (9^th); Fizzy (12^th).
SaturdayPick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 8 - 10 and includes the Vanderbilt (G1) and the Jim Dandy (G2)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 12:37 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 29, 2023

Jul. 28, 2023

Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday July 29 | Post Time 4:26 PM Eastern
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap – Grade 1 | Purse $350,000 | Six Furlong | Three Year Olds and Upward
Overall analysis:
The public will be focusing on last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Elite Power (4), who is two-for-two as a four year old, having won a race in Saudi Arabia in February and the True North Stakes at Belmont last month for his sixth and seventh straight wins, respectively. He won his only start at Saratoga and he does not need the lead to win as well as has been working well since the True North. However, not only does Elite Power offer no value for win bets (opening at 4 to 5), he does not appear to be the standout those odds make it seem he is. In terms of sheer speed, normalizing for various tracks and conditions which is what a speed figure does, his best efforts have earned 111 and 112 Equibase Figures. We can compare those to others in the field, for example Gunite (5) earned a 113 figure winning the Aristides Stakes last month, while Gun It (1) earned a 112 figure winning last month at Belmont 12 days later than Elite Power won. Looking further, Dean Delivers (6) earned a 109 figure in his most recent race winning the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream. Then there’s Little Vic (7) and Synthesis (2), who finished fifth and second four weeks ago in the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes. Their figures of 98 and 93, respectively, are much lower than the first four, BUT they have races in the past in the same altitude of the Elite Power and the other three with 110+ figures. The ONLY horse which doesn’t belong is Awesome Aaron (3), whose best effort earned a 93 figure four weeks ago in Kentucky, but also who is likely to set the early pace given he’s run 21 and chance in his last two starts on the lead.
Main Contenders:
Now we sort, and after sorting based on odds, Little Vic (7) is the key to profit in this race as he opens at 15 to 1 although he does not have such little chance as compared to Elite Power (4) and Gunite (5), at the least. The four year has a five for 13 overall record in sprints, including five huge efforts in a row from last October through this March, culminating in victory in the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap at Aqueduct, where he wasn’t poorly regarded, going to post at 6 to 1. He had added blinkers one race before that and finished second to streaking eight length winner Repo Rocks, who won his next start. Cutting back from seven furlongs to six, EXACTLY as he’s doing today, Little Vic stalked in third off a :45 second half-mile, took over from the four path on the turn and coasted home. Getting the identical seven post today, I think he can do the same thing on the same cut back to six furlongs, which is his best trip as he has earned four of his five wins at the distance. Last out in the Nerud Stakes he was sent for the lead, which had not been done in month, but with a good post which doesn’t require him to be sent, jockey Olivero (up for his last three wins) can bide his time as Awesome Aaron goes for the lead, and if Little Vic runs as he did in the Tom Fool, with a 114 Equibase figure BETTER than the 112 Elite Power earned last month and the 113 figure Gunite earned last month, he can post the upset in this race.
Bets:
Win: We should consider a win bet on Little Vic (7) at odds of 4 to 1 more.
Exacta:
We should play larger denomination exacta box combinations with the favorites, but then as every horse but Awesome Aaron has some shot I won’t hesitate to play some exactas with Little Vic in first and second, as follows:
Box Little Vic (7) and Elite Power (4)
Box Little Vic (7) and Gunite (5)
Little Vic (7) over Gun It (1), Synthesis (2), Elite Power (4), Gunite (5) and Dean Delivers (6)
Gun It (1), Synthesis (2), Elite Power (4), Gunite (5) and Dean Delivers (6) over Little Vic (7)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 07:17 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 7/29/23

July 29, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Heartland; 6-A Day to Remember; 5-Slider
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: The opener is a hot maiden juvenile sprint that predictably features a fast working, highly promising Bob Baffert first timer in Heartland, the 6/5 morning line favorite despite drawing the dreaded rail. The son of Justify, a $575,000 yearling purchase, is a half-brother to champion 2-year-old Classic Empire and has done everything in the morning - View Workout - to indicate that he’s cranked up and ready to show his best stuff right now. A Day to Remember also has been quite impressive in the morning for trainer Mark Glatt - View Workout - and looks extremely live at first asking from his cozy outside draw. Finally, the John Sadler-trained Slider is yet another who has displayed plenty of ability in his a.m. trials - View Workout - and should be included somewhere on your ticket.

*

RACE 2: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Unconquerable Keen; 1-Standing O; 5-Johnny Podres.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Cherubic Factor.

Forecast: Here’s a difficult turf sprint that offers several possibilities. Unconquerable Keen shortens to five furlongs and at this abbreviate sprint trip the Irish-bred gelding projects to enjoy an ideal pace pressing journey and have every chance from the quarter pole home. He continues to train well for Phil D’Amato and will be tough with a repeat of his highly rated score two races back. Our top selection’s stable mate Standing O lands the rail, and if can secure a clear path when rallying from the second flight the veteran gelding will be heard from in the closing stages. Johnny Podres is a deep closer and will need some racing luck but he’s always preferred the Del Mar lawn and could be ready to perk up with a major effort at a nice price.

*

RACE 3: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Havoc; 5-Only One America; 9-Mr. Chivas.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 3-Helen’s Sun.

Forecast: Havoc has trained like a quick two-year-old for Ryan Hanson and looks like a live item first crack out of the box in this maiden state-bred sprint over five furlongs. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and represents a reasonable gamble at that price based on what we’ve seen - View Workout - posted on xbtv.com. Only One America is another that has caught the eye in the morning and is a “must use” on your ticket. She’s an “off-the-wall” bred filly tackling the boys, a good mover with some ability, and an enticing middle price (5-1) on the morning line. Mr. Chivas has displayed plenty of speed but has proven to be suspect close home in his three races to date. He’ll get plenty of play based on his experience but we’re not entirely sure if he’s trustworthy.

*

RACE 4: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Awesome Taylor; 3-Talkative Gal; 10-Pens Street; Jacodra’s Devil
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Renegade Princess.

Forecast: If you ever are inclined to hit the “all” button in rolling exotic play, this race would qualify. It's a borderline inscrutable main track miler for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares and absolutely no result would surprise us. Awesome Taylor plummets in class, returns to dirt, and projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip. First or second in five of 11 career starts, the daughter of Classic Empire has numbers that are better than par for this level. Talkative Gal crushed a $12,500 field at Los Alamitos earlier this month and should be competitive on the one level raise for low percentage connections. She’s never had much luck over the Del Mar main track but might be a tad better type now, especially over a distance of ground. Pens Street is poorly drawn but invades from Gulfstream Park and therefore is eligible for the ship-and-win bonus. Look for her to be running on late. Jacodra’s Devil likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics and if she can shake loose early she could take this field a long way.

*

RACE 5: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Loterie; 3-Angioletta
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Loterie was a promising third of 17 in her debut at The Curragh in May and arrives fresh off the plane to continue her career for trainer Phil D’Amato, who is superb with foreign shippers. She’s had three local breezes to get acclimated, including an easy move earlier this month over the training track at Santa Anita - View Workout - that was visually pleasing. Trainer Doug O’Neill has a Euro-shipper in the race as well that is worth a close look. Angioletta, a solid runner-up over the left-handed course at Nantes in France in her second start, arrives fit and ready and actually earned a better Timeform Rating in that race than Loterie did in hers. It seems logical that both have a decided edge over the locally based runners in this mile affair for juvenile fillies.

*

RACE 6: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Like No Other
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Like No Other arrives from Pleasanton in good form for trainer Andy Mathis and appears well placed on the class drop in this $16,000 seller for restricted (nw-2) fillies and mares. Though the aggressive drop to a notch below her claim price may be suspicious, the purse of this race ($30,000) actually makes it a proper move, and on numbers this is actually where she belongs on this circuit. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 7: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Adelie; 6-Exclusive Joni; 1-The Flying Pharoah
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Adelie hasn’t been seen for 11 months but in her first start since being transferred to the Phil D’Amato barn and dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time the Irish-bred filly appears to have found a field she can beat. The work tab leading up to this race appears solid and healthy, and as 4-year-old this class drop is thoroughly justified, even though she had good enough form to hit the board over this course last year in straight maiden company. Exclusive Joni, a Churchill Downs shipper that was claimed by trainer Bob Hess, Jr. for $50,000 last month, arrives seeking ship-and-win money and finished a respectable third in her only prior outing on grass two races back when campaigning in Florida. She’s a dangerous closer and a logical threat. The Flying Pharoah lands the favorable rail and projects to be prominent throughout. This will be her second start off a layoff and we’re expecting the that Tim Yakteen-trained filly will be prominent throughout and have a chance to outrun her 12-1 morning line.

*

RACE 8: Post: 5:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Missed the Cut; 6-Defunded
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Missed the Cut moved way too soon when looming a threat before flattening out in his California debut for trainer John Sadler last month. With the switch to Hector Berrios today, the son of Quality Road surely will receive the patient ride he requires and perform up to his best level in this year’s edition of the San Diego Handicap-G2. Whether or not he’s good enough to outrun the favorite remains to be seen, but at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth the gamble. A series of quick works since raced indicates he is ready to produce a significant forward move. Defunded is the logical favorite and one to beat. Proven over this main track, the son of Dialed In might be most effective at a middle distance, so conditions are ideal for the Bob Baffert-trained gelding to fire another huge shot. ‘Cut will be the better price, of course, so that’s where the bulk of our action will go, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

*

RACE 9: Post: 6:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Impact Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Ultimate Hy; 12-Shocking Grey

Forecast: Impact Warrior, yet another dangerous European shipper making her U.S. debut for trainer Phil D’Amato, looked very much like a fit and ready type in a local turf breeze earlier this week - View Workout - and shows rising Timeform Ratings that make her strictly the one to beat in this first level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. She’s a first time Lasix user with a comfortable draw and is a prototype miler based on her Irish form. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line; let’s hope we can get it.

*

RACE 10: Post: 6:39 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 11-Dr. Schivel; 4-The Chosen Vron
Backups/savers: 7-Anarchist.

Forecast: This is one of the deepest renewals of the Bing Crosby S.-G1 in recent years. Del Mar specialist Dr. Schivel (three wins from four starts, second in the 2021 BC Sprint-G1) returns to California and is back at his preferred six furlong trip after biting off more than he could chew in the Met Mile behind Cody’s Wish last month. Drawn comfortably outside where the best footing has been so far this season, the Mark Glatt-trained horse was visually very impressive in his comeback score two races back, so if he runs back to that race today he’s certainly capable of winning this race, just as he did two years ago. Win machine The Chosen Vron always is formidable. The Cal-bred gelding, successful in 12 of 16 starts while mostly facing state bred competition, is hickory at any distance or surface and has speed figures that match up quite well with our top pick. He’s drawn a little farther inside than we’d prefer but we still have to use him on the main ticket.

*

RACE 11: Post: 7:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Watsonville
Backups/savers: 6-Hula Candy; 8-Chay’s Tornado.

Forecast: We have a strong suspicion that Watsonville is going to step forward big time over a distance of ground, and with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern on his resume we eagerly anticipate his first try around two turns. The son of Jack Milton galloped out strongly in his most recent turf sprint, shows a healthy work pattern since, and has a pedigree that promises improvement as the distances increase. The Mark Glatt barn hits at a powerful 25% with the sprint-to-route angle, so at 6-1 on the morning line there’s plenty of price value to be found in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 07:19 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 7/29/23

July 29, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Modica; 7-Moonlight; 5-Frontline Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: The Saturday opener (early first post time at 12:40 ET) has several first timers that have credentials to be decent but it’s pretty much a grass grab bag, so a cautious approach is suggested. Modica acts like he has some ability, and as a son of Hard Spun certainly is bred to enjoy the grass. The work pattern appears healthy and most of the young stock from this barn run better than they breeze, so we suspect this colt will turn up a live item. Moonlight went a quarter mile in a swift :21 flat at the OBS April (changed leads late) but then appeared just okay in a local team breeze July 17 on the main track in :50.1b (rough changing leads). The female family for this son of Audible is nothing special, but this colt brought $285,00 through the ring so he’s obviously well-regarded. We’d include him in rolling exotic play but his morning line of 2-1 seems shorter than we’d prefer. Frontline Warrior is a debuting War Front colt for Shug and is worth tossing in somewhere. Most of his preparation came at Fair Hill but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him being competitive in an open fray.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:11 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Flokie’s Flight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Osbourne.

Forecast: Flokie’s Flight seeks his fourth straight score while moving up from starter’s allowance company. After earning a career top speed figure in his most recent win at Ellis Park last month, the Dale Romans-trained gelding should be quite competitive in this tougher spot in his first outing at the Spa. First or second in 10 of 13 career starts, the hard-hitting gelding lands the cozy outside post and can be a threat as the controlling speed or from a soft stalking position.

*

RACE 3: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Luna Warrior
Backups/savers/Underneath: 11-War Terminator.

Forecast: Recent maiden claiming ($40,000) winner Luna Warrior shows steadily rising speed figures, so we’re expecting the son of War Front to fire another big shot in this restricted (nw-2) $35,000 claiming turf sprint. The Jose D’Angelo-trained 5-year-old has just seven lifetime starts so he has room for further improvement, and his ideal stalking style should put him in a position for a repeat score. At 3-1 on the morning line he offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Party At Grants; 3-Mooney Mooney
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none

Forecast: Party At Grants, a $30,000 Linda Rice claim in early May at Churchill Downs, makes her first start since on the raise (a positive sign), and while her numbers aren’t particularly fast, at least they are moving in the right direction. In a challenging maiden $40,000 claimer, she might be able to produce a winning late bid for her high percentage connections. Stable mate Mooney Mooney is another first-off-the-claim play for Rice (27%) and is wheeled back at the same level after missing at 4/5 at Belmont Park in late May. Away for a couple of months while showing a somewhat spotty work tab, the daughter of Ransom the Moon has plenty of zip, and for this hot stable her morning line of 6-1 is somewhat enticing. This is a difficult affair with several variables, question marks, and unknowns, so best advice is to tread lightly.

*

RACE 5: Post: 2:46 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Sterling Silver
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Tizzy in the Sky; 4-Ontheonesandtwos.

Forecast: Sterling Silver returns to the allowance ranks after a pair of in-the-money finishes in New York-bred stakes company. Her last two starts earned strong speed figures, either of which if repeated would be good enough to win at this non-winners of three level. Beaten a neck over this track last year in the Prioress S.-G2, the daughter of Cupid is a two-time winner over this seven furlong distance and should settle in mid-pack and then take hold from the top of the lane to the wire. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and the main punch in the various rolling exotics.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Starts Now; 9-Splashy; 8-Bomb Squad
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this state-bred maiden special weight middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares. You may find the need to increase your coverage in a difficult, open event. Starts Now has found a home on grass, and after finishing second in her last pair, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man may be ready to break through with a win. The switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is huge for a low profile outfit, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll put her slightly on top. The two Christophe Clement entrants - Splashy and Bomb Squad - are lightly raced with room to improve and could easily step up and graduate. The former has good tactical speed and should draft into a soft pace prompting early position and have her chance from there, while the latter does her best when held up early and allowed to take hold late.

*

RACE 7: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Private Desire; 4-Dornoch
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Lambo; 3-Houlton.

Forecast: Let’s take a flyer on a big priced first time starter in this wide open maiden juvenile sprint. Private Desire hasn’t earned any fancy times in the morning, but this Todd Pletcher-trained colt has done everything asked while appearing to have more to give than permitted to show. The son of Constitution is a good-moving athlete and should be plenty fit, so at 12-1 on the morning line he’s worth a bit of a gamble. Dornoch seems certain to receive a ton of play after breezing a half from the gate in :46 2/5 while in company seven days ago, though his sluggish start from the barrier has to be disconcerting. A $325,000 son of Good Magic, he is a full brother to no less than 2023 Kentucky Derby-G1 winner Mage, so you know the expectations are high. Drum Roll Please is a $250,000 Hard Spun colt from the Brad Cox barn. We haven’t seen him on video, but the tab looks promising.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Elite Power; 5-Gunite
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Elite Power handled main rival Gunite rather easily when the two met in Saudi Arabia last winter and they square off again in this year’s edition of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.-G1. ‘Power has looked solid but not scintillating in the a.m. since his most recent win in the True North S.-G2 at Belmont Park last month and he did register a sharp overnight win over this track and distance in his only prior Spa appearance last summer, so there’s that, along with a winning streak that currently numbers seven. Those trying to beat the favorite will point out that Gunite’s best three speed figures are better than Elite Power’s career top. Something to ponder.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:02 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-New Ginya; 5-Expand the Map
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-No Show Sammy Jo.

Forecast: New Ginya, in the frame in nine of 10 career starts, is a dependable filly with a good price chance at 8-1 on the morning line in this allowance affair for fillies and mares over a mile on the inner course. She finished second in both of her prior Saratoga grass outings and most recently earned a career top speed figure when winning a state-bred event at this level sprinting at Belmont Park. Thus far in her career, Expand the Map has preferred to run second (five times) rather than win (once) but in a race that projects to have better than average early fractions the Irish-bred filly might be able to produce a dangerous late kick. Although she was flat and noncompetitive in a similar affair at Belmont Park last time out, a repeat of her race before last could be good enough to tag the leaders late.

*

RACE 10: Post: 5:45 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Forte; 4-Saudi Crown
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Forte adds blinkers and should return to his winning form over the same track that produced his Hopeful S.-G1 win last year. He had a messed up spring and then fell short in the Belmont Stakes-G1, but there should be no excuses today for the champion son of Violence. Saudi Crown clearly is the controlling speed, and the number he earned when just missing in the one mile Dwyer S.-G3 is tops in the field. Can he stay nine furlongs? Given the soft trip he is certainly going to enjoy, it’s not out of the question.

*

RACE 11: Post: 6:19 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Act of Congress; 3-Snowy Evening; 10-Sikum
Backups/savers: 2-Summer At the Spa; 5-Fancypants Juliana.

Forecast: Act of Congress seeks her third straight win and will take them as far as she can in this abbreviated turf sprint for first level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. She earned a big figure in her victory two races back at Pimlico over five furlongs, but the number slipped considerably in her most recent outing at three-quarters of a mile. This five and one-half furlong trip splits the difference, so it will be “hold your breath” time in the final stages for those who back her. Snowy Evening has the route-to-sprint angle we like and looks to be the most dangerous of the closers, while Sikum, at 10-1, has a right to at least hit the board with her best effort and should be included somewhere on your ticket as well.

*

RACE 12: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Tawaret; 5-Callie’s Grit
Backups/savers: 7-She’s Mo Bubble; 10-Sri Lanka.

Forecast: The finale is an inscrutable mini marathon for older fillies and mares over the inner course. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. Tawaret is a one-paced grinder but that’s the type that can win over 11 furlongs, and in just her fourth career start the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has room for further improvement. The Clement-Rosario trainer/jockey team always is formidable and in a race that projects to have creepy-crawler splits she should be forwardly placed with a ground-saving journey. Callie’s Grit is a fit on numbers and is another that is lightly raced with possible improvement in her future. With Dynaformer on the bottom side of her pedigree, she has every right to enjoy the trip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 07:19 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Meadows Adios Pick 4 Analysis

July 29, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
It's Adios Day and the biggest card of the year is in place at The Meadows. The main event comes in Race 15, the 57th Delvin Miller Adios Final when nine 3-year-old pacers compete for a share of a $350,000 purse. The competitive card is loaded with betting options as there is $170,000 in guaranteed pools. My focus is on the 0.50 Late Pick 4 which starts in Race 13. The sequence has a $15,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Expressbet and 1stbet account holders don't forget to register for the Adios Day Rebate! Get up to $10 back on EVERY RACE if the horse you bet to Win runs 2nd or 3rd. All races at The Meadows this Saturday come with our Money-Back Special so load up your account and get ready to cash in.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 13 (3:57 PM EST)

1-Stay Sunny (4-1)-Shows good gate speed and could take charge when the wings fold. Can offer a square price and has hit the board in 3 of 4 at the Meadows with 2 pictures.
3-Sonadora (5-1)-Has enough gate speed to get a close-up seat. Dave Palone could work a suck-around trip and finish fastest of all.
4-Shop Micki (6-1)-With this post draw James MacDonald can set up a stalking trip. Looking for a lively pace and that could benefit the Tim Twaddle trainee.
7-My Girl EJ (2-1)-The Ron Burke pupil has been facing some tough customers and from the inside would be a strong odds-on choice. Rolled a 54.2 back-half with a 26.3 last panel on 7-8 at the Meadows to come a close 2nd versus Sires Stakes company. They won't go to the half in .58 on a fast track today. Tossing the last start at PcD that shows a break, Chris Page is back between the pipes, and he is the usual pilot. Will be tough to beat with a clean trip, but the post draw makes this more interesting.

Race 14 (4:18 PM EST)

1-Vicious (7/5)-Steps up after getting on the engine and drawing off by over 6 lengths. That mile went in 149 flat, 1/5 of a second off the track record for 4-year-old pacers and was done on his own. This is Dave Palone's choice over #4 and #6 and is a main threat to double up.
4-Warrawee Veloce (9/2)-This Angie Coleman entry has a big gate speed and could land on the point or get the 2-hole ride behind the chalk. This will be the 3rd race off the bench, and its initial 2 starts were sharp especially considering the layoff dates back to 12-9-22. Dexter Dunn takes the lines and it's best to not overlook.

Race 15-Delvin Miller Adios Final (4:39 PM EST)

3-It's My Show (9/5)-Linda Toscano's sophomore was 0-8 in 2022 and is 7-7 this year. Took a few weeks off after winning the NA Cup at Wbsb on 6-17 and then set a world record for 3-year-olds on a 5/8's track with a 147.4 mile to win his Elimination race. Scott Zeron should be in position near the top or on the lead when the wings fold. The faster they go the better this son of Sweet Lou likes it.
4-Cannibal (5/2)-Probably needs things to work out perfectly to beat #3 but Nancy Takter will have this Elimination winner sharp as a tack and has good gate speed. Yannick Gingras will try to stay close to the leader and look to get up in time down the lane.
5-Redwood Hanover (7-1)-For those looking to play a few tickets and to shoot against the 2 chalks this a good choice. For a big upset to happen a blistering pace is a must and the two above will need to have a rough trip. James MacDonald steers and he knows how to tackle the leader down the lane. Needs the right set up but should be flying late in the mile at a big price and the fractions should be hot.

Race 16 (5:00 PM EST)

1-Lord Of Winterfell (6-1)-Willing to take a swing against #4 who could go off as an odds-on favorite. This is Mike Wilder's choice over #2 and #7 and will bank on him being able to light-up the 10-year-old off the gate. Can be a player with an alert start.
3-Monterey Jack (7-1)-Should offer a big price. If Anthony MacDonald can leave and find a close up seat this 5-year-old could hang around and use one move near the wire to post a win.
4-Rocked N Loaded (6/5)-Has been facing better and although recent form has been dull this is a soft spot. Not sure trying to wire this field will work, otherwise this would be my single. Should be bet hard and Dave Palone may look to control the action. Could get on the point and not look back, so will use, but not convinced.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3,4,7/1,4/3,4,5/1,3,4
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 07:20 AM

Laurel Park Pick 4 Ticket | Saturday, July 29 21

July 29, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK PICK 4
Saturday, July 29

The Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash, the signature sprint at Laurel Park, has played host to champions Housebuster (1991), Cherokee Run (1994) and Smoke Glacken (1997). Richter Scale’s track and stakes record of 1:07.8 for 6F appears safe heading into this Saturday’s $150,000 feature, but good form abounds in the 32nd running of the Dash, adding intrigue to a 50-cent Late Pick 4 wager that encompasses two other six-figure stakes. Here’s a closer look:

LRL 7th race (3:31 EST) -- NIMITZ CLASS has gone to the head of the class for trainer Bruce Kravets, the 19th leading conditioner of all-time with more than 3,700 wins. The 4-year-old colt won his last four stakes at Laurel Park going long with an average 100 Beyer. Then, in his first Grade III try in the Salvatore Mile at Monmouth Park, he raced 3-wide most of the way and edged away at the eighth pole before favored Petulante (4-6, $236k) caught him. BE BETTER arrives in the $100,000 Deputed Testamony Stakes in peak form for top local conditioner Brittany Russell, drawing clear in the final furlong of back-to-back optional claiming wins at 1-1/16 miles. He gets another chance to prove he belongs in stakes company. YODEL E.A. WHO, unhurried in last until mid-turn, rallied widest under a vigorous ride for his first win of the year. He galloped out strong, a good sign with added ground to cover today, and is worth longshot consideration.

LRL 8th race (4:02 EST) -- PRINCESS KOKACHIN ran her Laurel Park record to 9-for-15 with an authoritative front-end allowance victory and she can make good use of her speed again in her first long sprint attempt in two years. STREET LUTE backed off an early duel with her stablemate, checked while in tight on the turn, then finished a clear second. The extra half-furlong could make the winning difference. BEGUINE demolished a suspect allowance field at Belmont off a five-month layoff, then set the pace and back-pedaled in the Grade II Bed of Roses at 7F. She blossomed for trainer Ed Allard last winter, running second to stakes-winning sprinters Rossa Veloche and Betsy Blue, who are a combined 19-41 with $1.19 million in earnings.

LRL 9th race (4:33 EST) -- LIGHTENING LARRY is ‘pretty much perfect’, trainer Jorge Delgado said in recent published report heading into the De Francis Dash. He won 6F stakes at four tracks in his last nine starts and his only losses at the distance this year were to multiple graded stakes winner Candy Man Rocket and a runner-up stakes finish after he dueled through a :43.4 half-mile split. SYNTHESIS rallied past the aforementioned Candy Man Rocket in the closing yards in the Grade II John Nerud at 7F – and he did it while racing 3- to 5-wide throughout.

LRL 10th race (5:05 EST) – LUV YA BYE BYE steps up off the claim and back-to-back front-end romps on the main track. If he handles the turf better than his previous go-round, he could three-peat in a field that is a combined 4-for-35 this year. But take little to chance and go five deep in the final leg of the Pick 4.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket
LRL 7th Race: 1, 3, 5
LRL 8th Race: 1, 2, 5
LRL 9th Race: 3, 6
LRL 10th Race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $45

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-29-2023, 07:21 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #8

#1 Slow Down Andy	He couldn't stay late in the comeback run, but that was a race won by one of the very best (if not the best) horses out there right now, and I think he might land a pretty cozy trip while staying inside and letting a couple sharper players sort themselves out just ahead of him.
#6 Defunded	His baseline run should handle these, but I worry that Brickyard Ride's pace is going to at least force him to adapt a bit while maybe a touch further off the pace early. I haven't argued much with him ahead of the last two, but today feels like the right time to try to beat him on a course that maybe isn't his absolute favorite?
#10 Brickyard Ride	His best chance comes if a couple of the potential pressing types lay off him a bit and underestimate him against this kind of company going long, and he's not impossible if he's able to shake loose into the far turn. Still think he's probably going to find at least a couple of these who will come and get him late even if he brings his good stuff.
Race Summary	Slow Down Andy has plenty of appeal if he can step forward in the second start off the break, and I think he might be able to spy inside and wait if he can settle well enough into the first turn.

Del Mar - Race #10

#1 Hoist the Gold	Think the price might be playable enough on this guy after scoring at 4/5 at Ellis on the drop last out, and he might have a decent enough rating ability to take advantage in a spot with a handful of pretty committed forward players, including a few coming from high draws.
#8 C Z Rocket	He might be able to bounce back off the dull run last out, and I think he's going to get a more favorable race flow today than he has in a lot of those recent starts. Late on the scene.
#2 Spirit of Makena	Scary that we might not yet have seen his very best, but the recent form has been sharp while handling every class test given to him recently. First-over on a sharp pace?
Race Summary	Hoist the Gold might get the right kind of shape for his versatile style that should let his rider place him in a perfect spot as the race unfolds, and he is probably a bit better fit here than the price will likely indicate.

Del Mar - Race #11

#1 Unusual Activity	Debuter goes with a little bit of promising two-turn turf breeding, but as always take a look at this firster on the tote and track to get a better gauge on readiness. Not in love with any of the others lined up to go, so a fresh face is fine with me.
#8 Chay's Tornado	Stretchout player might appreciate tracking a slightly more manageable early pace while going long, but I'd probably want something a bit more attractive than the 5/1 ML price.
Also Eligibles	#16 Yellow Brick, #13 Seal Team and/or #14 Maltese Falcon all have form that can be imposing if they're able to draw in. For the moment, those in the main body seem fortunate that these guys are all hung out here -- they're clearly the ones to beat if any of them go.
Race Summary	Unusual Activity is at least interesting enough in the main body of this field, and I think the price is going to be right out of the box. Pay close attention to changes here, as the dynamic of this race changes entirely with each sharp also-eligible that gets in.