Monday 7/31/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:19 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 31, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Yonkers Raceway has a 0.50 Pick 5 starting in Race 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 8, and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Hickfromfrenchlick (5-1)-Drew off by 3 lengths in a gate to wire score versus Open Handicap company in last. Can snag its 3rd straight win leaving from the rail against straight Open horses and could offer some value at the morning line.
4-Hellabalou (5/2)-Hasn’t been able to seal the deal in the last 4 starts. Does fit, and should get a good early seat from this post. Joe B could leave, land in the pocket behind #1 and trip out.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Macheasy A (6-1)-Looking for a solid price and has the gate speed to get a close-up seat. Buter could roll off cover and finish the best of all.
6-Motive Hanover (5/2)-Steps-up again looking for its 3rd straight win. Not loving the short price but Joe B has the gate speed to get the top. That plan has been working and will likely be followed again.
7-So Ho Lennon A (8-1)-This veteran drops to a soft spot and should relish the company. These days the 13-year-old doesn’t dial it up as often. Kakaley could have in range at the 3/4 ‘s pole and roll by down the lane.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Moonlight Shadow (3-1)-Comes off a win with Stratton in the bike and raced from the back. Tonight, regular pilot Bartlett returns, should be forwardly placed and could double up.
3-Lou's Sweetrevenge (3-1)-Lou comes off an efficient win with Stratton aboard. Steps-up but isn't out of place against this crew and the Adamczyk barn has been clicking.
6-Rock Diamonds N (9/2)-Last week, went the 2nd half in 54.2 but was too far back and came a close 4th. My feeling is Joe B doesn't look to come off cover. This time he blasts out and tries to land on the point and not look back.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-Caviart Sargent (5-1)-Has cashed checks versus better, has enough gate speed to get the pocket and stay close to the one below. Willing to use with this post draw in case the chalk doesn't have his fast ball.
3-Fearful Intent (3/2)-Comes off an easy win at PcD, could take control and not look back. This is the level of past success but this isn't an automatic win, and the price will be tiny. Using and hoping for some value with the one above.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4/4,6,7/2,3,6/1,3
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:20 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#1 Becauseofthebrave	Think she might be able to bounce back a bit today after fading at Finger Lakes, as she went pretty evenly in that local try in June in a race that has come back okay since then for the level. Think she might be in the mix in a spot without a ton of speed?
#6 Mulsanne	She's a fairly honest finisher who has never been in this easy, but I worry a little bit about her style in a race that might not have a super hot early tempo. Obvious player to run these down either way.
#7 Uppity Up	She moved forward a bit in that last start, but she was still no serious threat when a dozen lengths back and will need to sustain her move a bit better to land this. In with a chance in a bad spot.
Race Summary	Becauseofthebrave stretches out for this one and might offer a decent enough price with some fading recent form. I'm don't think this is a very deep spot, so she has some front-end appeal if they get a good break and don't take any heat.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#2 Sensical	He didn't miss by too much at 2/1 at Horseshoe Indianapolis last time out, and he looks like a pretty good fit with this group while maybe in line for a bit more tactical trip while drawing one stall off the rail this time.
#6 Cantstealmythunder	Wouldn't argue with anyone landing here with a good bit of confidence, as he hasn't done anything really wrong in the two starts so far and has shown some versatility already in his running style. The one to beat.
#3 Cactus Kevin	Think he has a little claim on this one, especially if a couple of the speedier types don't relax all that well, as he is one of the few in here with any semblance of finishing form. I could see it.
Race Summary	Sensical might not need to go for the front, and I think he might be able to find a pretty cozy spot to get a first-over trip with these. I like that he went to Turfway for a work ahead of this.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#8 Lemon Curry	She tracked out wide and made a mild move before flattening out in midstretch in the debut run, but I think that was a pretty honest try in a good enough spot for the level, and any reasonable second-out upside keeps her in the frame here.
#11 Jazz Time Girl	I got taken in here at a little too short a price last time out, and I'm not sure the task gets a whole lot easier here while meeting a good bit of other pace. Wouldn't surprise with one of her better running lines, but I'm not totally sold she gets to that today.
#3 Orphan Exchange	She's another one with some room to come forward with the career debut out of the way, and she might be a pretty nice fit while halving the price to meet this kind of company for the first time. Think she needs to be on at least the B tickets.
Race Summary	Lemon Curry might offer a playable enough price while getting what appears to be a good race shape. There are a handful of fairly committed pace players, including a couple drawn out side, and I'll bet she sustains her run better with the start a few weeks ago under her belt.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:20 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#7 TENSAS CLEAR (15-1)	Much better than debut appears, must use on all gimmick wagers.
#2 SMILING ANGEL (5-2)	‘Battled’ on lead in pair of longer sprints, can go non-stop in here.
#1 GRACEFUL STREET (9-2)	Awakened with runner-up rally two back, disappointed as follow-up fave.
Race Summary	Can’t resist the 15-1 morning-line price on TENSAS CLEAR in this maiden claiming sprint for Louisiana breds. She ‘gathered strong momentum’ into the turn but steadied repeatedly, losing all chance against the winning debut favorite. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#3 ELUSIVE D’ORO (4-1)	Went well from off pace in last two grass routes, shortens up to a flat mile.
#7 CHIEF ALPHA (9-2)	Sprung shocker for new barn in seasonal debut, gets in light, turf numbers solid.
#4 OBVIOUSLY TOO (12-1)	Both wins on lawn, can make good use of his speed at big price.
Race Summary	ELUSIVE D’ORO gained steadily while 4-wide two turf starts ago, then engaged in battles with several rivals last out, settling for third at this level. He’s one of many with a chance in here, so hunt for some value with a 3-4-7 exacta box.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#6 MORO FLASHBACK (12-1)	Romped off year absence, gelded since, vet scratch last week.
#7 RUNANDHIDE WIND (5-2)	Seems stuck in ‘third’ gear, should benefit from return and pace setup.
#2 BATES COURT (9-2)	Sharp break, held off closers in first-out victory at 5-1/2 furlongs.
Race Summary	MORO FLASHBACK went right to the front off a year layoff and drew away from a pair of sub 2-to-1 favorites in the stretch to break his maiden at Lone Star Park. He was gelded since that race and a vet scratch here last Wednesday, but he’s still worth a win and place bet at 12-1 on the morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie

PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 7	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Jackpot High 5 (Pentafecta)
Allowance • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $24,600 • Post: 7:18P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $4,725 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. TOTAL BETTY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TOTAL BETTY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. B RIENNE OF TARTH: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MENAGERIE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days.
1	TOTAL BETTY	3/1	7/2
4	BRIENNE OF TARTH	9/2	5/1
9	MENAGERIE	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	DONNARUMMA	7	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	67	69	60.7	51.9	44.4
4	BRIENNE OF TARTH	4	9/2	Stalker	64	65	52.3	60.2	52.2
9	MENAGERIE	9	5/1	Stalker	64	64	39.8	58.8	52.3
1	TOTAL BETTY	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	72	72.3	62.2	55.7
2	SEEDS OF GRANDEUR	2	15/1	Trailer	58	58	37.0	54.8	41.8
8	MISS SCHILLER	8	7/2	Trailer	60	58	33.8	52.6	39.6
3	FLAT OUT ANGEL	3	12/1	Trailer	59	47	17.4	34.6	23.1
5	LOADED SECRET	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	62	67.9	54.1	42.6
6	MISS MOLLY LALOU	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	54	48.8	51.0	40.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park All Turf Pick 3PURCHASE

Ellis Park All Turf Pick 3 - Race 2	Leg 2 of the All Turf Pick 3
Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 2:50P
ELP - R7 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR $30,000 OR LESS IN LAST 5 STARTS). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE OUT OF THE CHUTE.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LEMON BOMB: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BOLTORO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JUNGLE CAT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. MO BLOOMS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. OKAY FINE: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
2	LEMON BOMB	5/2	5/1
7	BOLTORO	6/1	6/1
11	JUNGLE CAT	12/1	7/1
10	MO BLOOMS	12/1	8/1
4	OKAY FINE	9/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CHURCH SERVICE	3	25/1	Front-runner	80	70	93.9	74.9	59.4
13	PELICAN LANE	13	6/1	Front-runner	81	76	76.8	76.8	63.3
14	MIDVALE	14	10/1	Front-runner	73	57	68.3	64.5	40.0
10	MO BLOOMS	10	12/1	Stalker	84	73	69.2	69.2	61.7
4	OKAY FINE	4	9/2	Stalker	84	78	62.0	75.0	59.5
12	MILIEU	12	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	82	73.4	75.6	62.6
11	JUNGLE CAT	11	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	77	61.6	75.8	64.3
7	BOLTORO	7	6/1	Trailer	82	83	78.3	79.7	71.7
2	LEMON BOMB	2	5/2	Trailer	83	68	63.5	82.5	74.0
1	FROTHY	1	15/1	Trailer	0	0	47.4	68.3	56.8
9	ENGLISH CHARM	9	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	81.5	73.0	54.0
16	RETROSPECT	16	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	53.1	68.3	56.8
5	CALLAS	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	62.6	62.6	42.6
15	THEROANRUNNER	15	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.7	17.1	0.0

Unknown Running Style: BE MISS HATTIE (25/1) [Jockey: Arrieta Francisco - Trainer: Davis Christopher], CATMINT (10/1) [Jockey: Corrales Gerardo - Trainer: Cox Brad H].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5800 Class Rating: 61

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES LIFETIME OR COLORADO BRED NO WINNERS OF THREE RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 PICK A LANE FRANK 5/2
# 6 MUCHO GIFTED 9/2
# 8 BARLOWS PRIDE 6/1

PICK A LANE FRANK supports the bet in here. Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been formidable - 57 avg - of late. He has a decent distance/surface win record - 1 out of 6. Should be given a chance - I like the numbers from the last contest. MUCHO GIFTED - A solid 76 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this field. BARLOWS PRIDE - Should be given a chance in this competition if only for the respectable speed rating garnered in the last outing. His chances to score are much better this time out facing this less demanding bunch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 DELVECCHIO 8/5
# 2 KATE'S PRINCESS 5/2
# 4 HANDCARVED 5/1

DELVECCHIO seems to be the bet in here. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the competition. With a very strong 90 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this outing. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Gardipy running at this distance are the top in this group of horses. KATE'S PRINCESS - Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Danelson has a solid win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. HANDCARVED - Last time out, this gelding faced a stronger field. This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to take a chance on.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #10 - Post: 7:51pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#3 SHEMEANSBIZNESS (ML=5/1)
#7 COLLECTED GLORY (ML=5/2)

SHEMEANSBIZNESS - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speed freak facing sluggish sorts today. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here. COLLECTED GLORY - The most recent speed fig of 83 is the top last race speed rating in the field. This thoroughbred has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking note of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HALOSNHEAVEN (ML=2/1), #1 PRESENT TIME (ML=3/1), #2 ARRESTED (ML=6/1),

HALOSNHEAVEN - On a downward spiraling cycle. Speed figures keep lessening. Can't really play this kind of oft beaten favorite. PRESENT TIME - Garnered a common speed figure last time around the track in an Allowance race on Jul 8th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure. ARRESTED - Finished fourth last time. Would have to move up to be on the board in today's race. This filly notched a speed figure in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SHEMEANSBIZNESS - Deceivingly close to victory on June 23rd. A repeat of that nice effort makes her a contender in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 SHEMEANSBIZNESS on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with 7 with [1,5,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2023, 06:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5 - Post: 4:48pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#6 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER (ML=5/2)
#2 SENSICAL (ML=7/2)
#4 R ADMIRAL (ML=3/1)

CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER - Jockey hops back up aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a good tip. This gelding has 'tactical' speed, Ayala will use this advantage by laying in the 'garden' spot behind the leaders, and getting first run on the leaders. Ayala and Rice teamed up together are a punter's friend. The 79 most recent race rating looks mighty good in black and white. SENSICAL - Horses that finish 2nd in Maiden races and finish well in front of the show horse are generally good bets next time out. Looking at today's class figure, this pony is meeting an easier field than last time out at Horseshoe Indianapolis. R ADMIRAL - This horse coming off a sharp effort in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my opinion. This equine ran well at Presque Isle Downs on June 26th. Bounced in the last race, but should rebound today with a sharp effort.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISCHIEF WARRIOR (ML=5/1), #3 CACTUS KEVIN (ML=5/1), #5 KEEN LOOKIN (ML=6/1),

MISCHIEF WARRIOR - Don't think this pony will make a winning move in today's race. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. CACTUS KEVIN - In the last event this vulnerable equine finished sixth. Doesn't look promising for his chances this time around. KEEN LOOKIN - This colt finished off the board on May 20th and wasn't even close last out either. This vulnerable equine ran a mediocre speed rating last time around the track. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip