Friday 8/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 4

Aug. 03, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Wicked Again	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-5	1A	Index Fund	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	3	Ludwig	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	6-5	1	Opportunity Set	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Macho Villa	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Metallurgic	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/1/3 BOX
RACE #2 $83,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Glacial Power	T McCarthy
PLACE	3-1	7	Cptbobsbtwentynine	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	4	Stuck On You	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Piccata Prince	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	11	Rudy Rudy Rudy	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	12	Crown That Saint	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #3 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 BOURBONS HOPE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Bourbons Hope	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-1	3	Zertz	D Davis
SHOW	4-1	2	Money Mike	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Risk Profile	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Turnsandconditions	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Striking Speed	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 LEM ME DRINK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Lem Me Drink	D Davis
PLACE	5-1	8	Jayla	J Castellano
SHOW	5-1	6	Sperss	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Jessicas Ride	K Davis
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	10	Berning Honor	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	11	Jannie Mae	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #5 $50,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 CARMICHAEL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	4	Carmichael	T Gaffalione
PLACE	9-5	7	Patient Capital	J Castellano
SHOW	5-1	8	Joking Way	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Laughing Boy	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Baltasar	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Sky and Sand	L Saez
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	4	Happy Bob	J L Ortiz
PLACE	9-2	3	Assertive Attitude	J Lezcano
SHOW	4-1	2	Fast Boat to Skye	J A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Fire Baron	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Creation of Adam	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Run Diem Z	D Davis
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #7 $400,000 STAKES 1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** SARATOGA OAKS STAKES (GIII)
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	9	Selenaia	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	7	Papilio	J Castellano
SHOW	8-1	10	Aspen Grove	O Murphy
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Elusive Princess	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Xigera	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	American Sonja	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/10 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
COMMENTS: SELENAIA has won three straight races and now gets Irad Ortiz Jr. PAPILIO always closing and right there at the end. ASPEN GROVE could add value to your exotics. ELUSIVE PRINCESS has potential making first start in the states
RACE #8 $500,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	10	Carl Spackler	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	1	More Than Looks	J R Velazquez
SHOW	8-1	2	Bat Flip	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Nagirroc	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	General Jim	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Mysterious Night	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/10 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #9 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	7	Timely Conquest	J R Velazquez
PLACE	3-1	3	Big Bean Christine	D Davis
SHOW	5-1	8	Big Hazel	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Missing Fortune	K J Coa
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Disruption	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Tosconova Beauty	N Alvarado
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
RACE #10 $35,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Deep Cover	J Castellano
PLACE	6-1	4	Foliage	T Gaffalione
SHOW	3-1	1	Detroit City	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Athenry	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	11	Ignited	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	9-5	12	One Giant Leap	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX
RACE #11 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 3/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Unleash the Power	L Saez
PLACE	9-2	6	Shinsun	K Carmouche
SHOW	5-1	4	Forwardly	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Lord Flintshire	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Suerte	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Miracle Mike	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 4

Aug. 03, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 LIAMS LAD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Liams Lad	R Aragon
PLACE	7-5	5	Prince of Pennies	M Murrill
SHOW	8-1	6	Azteca Star	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Colonel Barton	G Saez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Wicked Review	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Go Virtual	R Miranda
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 TAMARAS WAY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Tamaras Way	G Corrales
PLACE	7-5	1	Ship It	K J Asmussen
SHOW	6-1	3	Monocacy	M Murrill
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Shes a Secret	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Social Mandate	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Xtrasaucewelldone	Y Navas
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #3 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Isle of Hope	F Geroux
PLACE	8-1	2	Candy Oak	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-2	4	Clearly Copper	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Vino Veloce	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Honor Cat	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Sessa Sisu	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #4 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Miranda Rights	R Gutierrez
PLACE	5-2	6	Scoobie Quando	L Machado
SHOW	6-1	9	Billy Jack	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Berrettini	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Smokey Mandate	M Chuan
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Winston Wolf	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX
RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Tipsy Runner	E Morales
PLACE	8-5	4	Wonder Wave	R Bejarano
SHOW	12-1	6	Golden Storm	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Field Lass	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	12	Hot Mocha	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	11	Despos Dream	J Talamo
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX
RACE #6 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 METHODOLOGY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Methodology	F Geroux
PLACE	5-2	1	Poblano	F Arrieta
SHOW	8-1	9	Queen of Missoula	L Machado
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Eyes of Gold	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Lacie Be Good	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Pool Noodle	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
RACE #7 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	9	Endpoint	G Corrales
PLACE	10-1	3	Cadillac Candy	J Graham
SHOW	7-2	1	Moreau	J Talamo
WILD CARD	3-1	6	CEst Magnifique	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Interlock Empire	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	13	Winnemac Avenue	M Murrill
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #8 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	5	Broken Rib	E Morales
PLACE	5-2	1	Gulfstream Way	M Garcia
SHOW	10-1	4	Vulcan	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Willtorun	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Lugan Knight	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	League of Legends	J K Court
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX
RACE #9 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Tepeu	F Arrieta
PLACE	8-5	11	Greener Pastures	M Chuan
SHOW	8-1	2	Trigger Happy	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	7-2	8	Ocean Pointe	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Eddie M	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Maasai Warrior	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 2/8/11 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - August 4

Aug. 03, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3^rd race [NY, Clm 10000, 6F] – (1) Risk Profile (A) was shut off at the break of a $20,000 claimer last time, was taken up, rallied three wide, and was claimed by Linda Rice who drops him right down with a big chance to win. (7) Turnsandconditions won a $25,000 N3L condition in April at Aqueduct and was claimed. After two tries in starter allowances he moves to the lowest level available at Saratoga. (4) Bourbon’s Hope has been off since May when he won his N2L and N3L conditions also for Rice. (3) Zertz was second last month for a $12,500 tag.
4^th race [NY, Md 40000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (10) Berning Honor (A) returned to the turf in the spring and ran second in a maiden special weight. Last time she got shuffled far back at the start and basically lost all chance. (8) Jayla will make her first start for Jena Antonucci and gets to race against NY-breds for the first time after spending the winter at Fair Grounds. (3) Lem Me Drink finished second, third, and fourth since moving to maiden claimers and to the turf. (6) Sperss returns from a June layoff and drops back to this level again and gets Luis Saez in the saddle.
7^th race [Saratoga Oaks (G3), 1 3/16 mi TURF] – (7) Papilio (B) raced exclusively in graded stakes since her American debut in May and won the Appalachian (G1) at Keeneland and last month was third in the Belmont Oaks (G1). (10) Aspen Grove won that Belmont Oaks in her first start in the USA when she rallied from last in a nine horse field. (9) Selenaia won her last three starts having only run four times. In June she travelled to California and won the Honeymoon (G3) at Santa Anita. (4) Xigera won both of her 2023 starts in an allowance at Churchill Downs and then the Tepin which was run at Ellis Park.
9^th race [NY, Alw 95000 N1X, 7F] – (7) Timely Conquest (A) was a rare debut winner for Mark Hennig when she broke a bit slowly, rallied, and drew off to win by more than two lengths. (6) Chasing Daylight was a first-out winner at Belmont in June and then raced in open company claimers in her last two starts. (3) Big Bean Christine has been off since March when she won a starter allowance at Aqueduct by a neck. (8) Big Hazel had a big maiden victory going a mile at Belmont and then had less luck going nine furlongs.
Best bets: Berning Honor (4^th); Timely Conquest (9^th). Best value: Risk Profile (3^rd); Papilio (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1)	Risk Profile	A on 6/24	3	He was shut off and taken up at start and was claimed.
(10)	Berning Honor	A on 6/17	4	Shuffled back to last far back and rallied wide.
(7)	Pabilio	B on 7/8	7	Stumbled at the break for another bad start.
(9)	Timely Conquest	A on 6/16	9	A rare debut winner for trainer Mark Hennig.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Hotlist - August 4

Aug. 03, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (8) Mysticism has a pedigree that says she should be tough to beat on turf. (1) She is Romantic looks like the main rival. (5) She’s My Niece might appreciate a switch to turf. (4) Sophie Jean seems well-meant here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-8.
4th race – (1) Worcester was second last time and is overdue for a maiden win. (7) Yellow Brick was second in his last three starts and can complete the exacta again. (5) Excel Calculator is worth a look off the Ellis claim. (8) Confucius has some words for the wise. He flopped in his debut but seems to have more talent than that. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-7-8. Doubles: 1-5-7-8 with 3-6-8-9.
5th race – (3) Rosie Forecast has an inside post and may be able to lead throughout here. (8) Court Snort should be a stretch threat. (6) I Had That One Too gets Smith and cannot be ignored. (9) Daddysruby has been prepping nicely on turf. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-8-9.
7th race – (2) Beer Can Mike won nicely in a Pimlico stakes and looks best here. (8) Noble Refection has speed from the outside and may not look back. (6) Sumter exits a graded stakes and should be a main contender. (4) Turn On The Jets could work out a great trip in this field. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-8. Doubles: 2-4-6-8 with 1-2-7-8.
8th race – (2) Tahoe Secrets was third in his last two tries and seems properly spotted in a claimer. (8) Quick Buck may make some here. (7) Bullion Bomber has a nice turn of speed and could be hard to catch. (1) Book Smart will benefit from a rail trip in this field. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-8.