Monday 8/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:23 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 7, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 starting in Race 5 and the sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM ET)

2-Sailboat Hanover (5/2)-Bako lost via claim on 7-24 and then claimed back the following start. May have met a beatable field and could get a 2-hole ride behind the one below.
3-Pointtomygranson (9/5)-Came 2nd in last and was claimed by the Daguete barn. Needs a trip to win and would be best if the journey began and finished with this veteran on the point. That could be workable plan for a picture.

Race 10 (10:00 PM ET)

2-Viva Las Vegas N (6-1)-Doesn't win often but with this post draw trainer/driver Pat Lachance can stay involved and work an efficient trip. Could offer some value in what could be a chalky sequence.
3-C-Bet Hanover (7/2)-Has hit the board in 12 of 18 here with 4 pictures and fits well with this kind. Brennan has some gate speed to work with and could be a trip out candidate.
5-Jahan Hanover (3-1)-Cashes checks but can't seem to win. This is a spot where Bartlett may look to get the top and try to wire this crew.

Race 11 (10:20 PM ET)

2-He's Special (5/2)-Going to use 2 out of the same race where Matt Kakaley on Imma Bee put the field to sleep with a 58.1 first half. Landed in the pocket but couldn't make-up ground down the lane because the pace was so dull. This will be the first start in the Per Engblom barn, Bartlett takes over and that should help. Thinking the 4-year-old leaves hard, takes control and might not look back.
6-Pinebush Lifesaver (9/2)-Last time was pulled to come first over as the pace quickened and that trip had no chance of working. Gets a positive driver change in Kakaley, so will look for a sharp steer and this race could set up for a closer.

Race 12 (10:40 PM ET)

2-Seth Hanover (2-1)-Bumps up in class after a win and does good work with a close-up trip. Should get a cozy trip and can be competitive with this bunch.
4-Delightful Dude N (4-1)-Trainer Lance Hudson is back and this veteran lands in a soft spot. The issue is a lack of gate speed but can close. At this level, an aggressive drive could be coming.
5-Ballerat Boomerang (3-1)-This 10-year-old hasn't taken a picture since May. If one is going to happen here, this is the level. This is not one for taking much air so Brennan, the usual pilot, will need to work a smooth trip.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,3,/2,3,5/2,6/2,4,5
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#4 Why Not Me	He flattened out in the final half furlong of that debut run, but perhaps this slightly longer trip will work in his favor with that one under his belt. The barn dominates local races like this, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see this one step forward enough to graduate today.
#2 Metronome	He's one of two going first out near the inside for the Harty barn, and the barn manages to lure a couple of the top riders to the irons for this one. Take a look on the tote and track, but he makes sense on paper in what might not be the toughest local spot for the level.
#5 Bloodhound	He goes first out for a team that can win with this kind, so he's one of the more obvious ones to note for consideration on the track ahead of this one.
Race Summary	Why Not Me has an experience edge on these after making a mild move and flattening out here last month, and he can probably sustain a bid better today after that first go round.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#5 Lady Radler	There are a couple other potential front-end types, but she seems to get the best of the draw to force the issue, and I wonder if she might be able to scoot away while a handful of capable pressing and spying types settle in and wait to move.
#2 Loon Cry	She's probably supposed to be tough in here while coming in off a couple turf scores at Belmont, but she'll probably take a little cash while having the surface question to answer, and she might in that big group of horses trying to sort themselves out behind the pace.
#7 Jill Jitterburg	Absolutely wouldn't be surprised to see her take back a bit behind the midpack types and come with a late run to land this, as she's better than ever right now and has probably been a little unlucky not to get on the wire first in a couple of those recent starts.
Race Summary	Lady Radler has to be committed here, and that might give her a chance to sneak clear while the spying types make middle moves. She tends to get pretty brave when she clears turning for home, and I think she might do that here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#12 Spy Town	He has already had a lot of chances, so I'd want a double-digit price here, but I think there might be enough forward players lined up in here to at least keep the race flow honest, and maybe this one can drop back to avoid a wide trip before coming with a late run.
#10 Blue Cosmo	He is definitely one of the ones with a claim on the top spot here, as he's probably one of the more likely tracking players to stay on well enough to get home. Worth another look at this level.
#2 Freddy's Music	He and #7 Nathaniel's Hope have similar running styles that might allow them to track the pace and stick around, and this guy also has at least a little upside while getting in at this level today.
Race Summary	Spy Town has form that's generally not very good, but the style and effort from his two-back run might be enough to make him a player if he can get back to that and a decent enough tempo unfolds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:24 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#1 SEE SASSY RUN (7-2)	Fits condition well, projects good stalking trip, back facing LA-breds.
#3 SWEET VIDALIA (5-2)	Won long sprint allowance at Evangeline early in year, one to beat.
#2 MO BELLA (9-2)	Carried speed to a win and two seconds in three starts for a claiming tag this year.
Race Summary	SEE SASSY RUN, the only six-race winner in the field, rallied for second in a pair of five-horse fields recently behind the 6-5 and 9-5 winners, respectively. She dueled between runners and faded two back, but should revert to an ideal stalking position from the rail in this spot. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3 exacta box.

Louisiana Downs - Race #3

#8 MIDNIGHT HUNTER (7-2)	Much improved, game try despite wide trip at this distance.
#6 PEPPERONI KID (12-1)	Solid dirt numbers, broke maiden in 12-horse field at Oaklawn Park.
#12 JERSEY JIM (4-1)	Edged by ‘Hunter’ for second on the class drop to this level, draws post 12.
Race Summary	MIDNIGHT HUNTER dueled early and gained steadily while 4-wide against a repeat winner at Lone Star Park. He moves inward three spots from post 11 for his second start at this level and is worth a win and place bet to enhance the barn’s recent 3-for-12 run.

Louisiana Downs - Race #7

#2 FREEDOM FACTOR (7-2)	Still going strong at age 8, big factor to enhance gaudy turf resume.
#1 FREIGHTTRAINFREEMAN (5-1)	Shortens up, rallied to win in prior 7-1/2F test off freshening.
#11 WHEN’S TEE TIME (9-2	First or second in 8 of 9 on Louisiana lawn, early position key.
Race Summary	FREEDOM FACTOR angled 4-wide but couldn’t match strides in the stretch with hard-hitting winner More Ice (9-33, $180k) in a starter allowance turf route race. He gets class relief and appears best of these in his bid for 10 wins on the grass. Wouldn’t expect 7-2 odds but bet to win and place regardless.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:28 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie

PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 1	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $21,300 • Post: 1:05P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. I'M NO SLEEPY JOE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LETS SAY THIS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after tw o sprint prep races. BREACH OF TRUST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races.
4	LETS SAY THIS	9/5	5/2
3	BREACH OF TRUST	2/1	9/2
1	I'M NO SLEEPY JOE	7/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	LETS SAY THIS	4	9/5	Front-runner	64	61	63.5	73.0	68.5
3	BREACH OF TRUST	3	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	60	56	77.8	56.7	54.7
1	I'M NO SLEEPY JOE	1	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	70	61	50.2	50.2	43.2
2	BROADWAY RUCKUS	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	51	65.4	45.4	36.9
5	THIS CAT IS BY JAX	5	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.7	42.7	35.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:28 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie MeadowsPURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 1	Win/ Place/ Show/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double / Pick 3 (.50 Minimum) Pick 4 (.50 Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 60 • Purse: $12,200 • Post: 4:00P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MISS TRIANA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desig nation. CHAMP 40: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WM RUSHMORE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
7	MISS TRIANA	3/1	3/1
1	CHAMP 40	2/1	9/2
5	WM RUSHMORE	7/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHAMP 40	1	2/1	Average	58	53	5.6	0.0	0.0
2	KQS DREAMING	2	9/2	Average	0	0	4.9	0.0	0.0
3	BLAZIN HOT KAT	3	12/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	INTERESTED PARTY	4	8/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	WM RUSHMORE	5	7/2	Slow	55	44	7.1	0.0	0.0
7	MISS TRIANA	7	3/1	Fast	69	55	3.4	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: BABIE GOTT BACK (6/1) [Jockey: Samaniego Andrew R - Trainer: Hunt Charlton].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:28 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 89

BC CUP SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL DERBY TRIAL H. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY JULY 23, 2023 WITH AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO ENTER AND $1,000 TO START. $50,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 55% GOES TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH AND 4% TO FIFTH, AND 2% TO SIXTH THROUGH EIGHTH, FINISHERS NINETH THROUGH TWELFTH

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LEGACY SQUARE 2/1
# 10 ACCORDINGLY 30/1
# 8 ACCIDENTAL HERO 3/1

LEGACY SQUARE is the top bet in this race. He has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the best in this field. Handler has sharp win rate (26 percent) at this distance and surface. Always seems to be close at the wire. ACCORDINGLY - Recent figures for the jockey - 22 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses. I think having Morales ride this gelding is a smart move. ACCIDENTAL HERO - Has been racing quite well in races of this distance, going 2 for 9 under similar conditions. Can't overlook the connections here, a 16 winning percentage, one of the best at getting into the winner's circle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:29 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #7 - Post: 6:53pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#2 FREEDOM FACTOR (ML=7/2)

FREEDOM FACTOR - Govea drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more information to figure that this horse will be tough to beat at this level. A pony coming back this rapidly after a strong effort is a good omen. The recent speed rating of 86 is the top last race speed fig in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 WHEN'S TEE TIME (ML=9/2), #1 FREIGHTRAINFREEMAN (ML=5/1), #8 PEPPER JACK (ML=6/1),

WHEN'S TEE TIME - Didn't show much last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. Today's event is 7 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signs. This horse didn't show any front speed in the last affair. Now he is trying a sprint. Tough chance at the shorter distance. This gelding registered a speed figure in his last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's race. FREIGHTRAINFREEMAN - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts. If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be frustrated most every time. PEPPER JACK - Didn't perform too well last time out. Probably won't make a winning move in today's race. Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races lately. Improbable to see him doing it this time around either. When you keep searching through the TrackMaster pps and don't see a victory recently, you have to say to yourself, 'Not worth it on this horse'.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - FREEDOM FACTOR - Top speed rating in sprint events on the grass make this steed a tough competitor against these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 FREEDOM FACTOR on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [9,11] with [3,8,9,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,8,9,11] with [3,8,9,11] with [3,8,9,11] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:30 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8300 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF THREE RACES LIFETIME OR COLORADO BRED NON WINNERS OF FOUR RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. COLORADO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BREAKFAST BALL 9/2
# 2 PRESLEY'S ARTWORK 10/1
# 3 PRINCESS JAYLEEN 15/1

My selection in this contest is BREAKFAST BALL. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 66. Recorded a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Seems to have a formidable class edge based on the latest company kept. PRESLEY'S ARTWORK - With a solid jockey who has won at a quite good 20 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. Lemburg has her trained soundly to break sharply out of the gate.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2023, 06:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,300 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#9 KREWE CHIEF (ML=8/1)
#2 JUSTIN FRONT (ML=8/1)
#1 MUNTIJ (ML=3/1)

KREWE CHIEF - Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Mountaineer Park. The move down the class scale should suit him well. Strong return on investment for this rider and conditioner tandem. Look for this one to go gate to wire in victory at some decent odds in this field. Ran fifth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the end. JUSTIN FRONT - Has discovered a good spot this time around. MUNTIJ - Ran a lackluster race at Mountaineer Park last race out. Racing on a fast track puts this gelding at the top of my contenders roll call.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JOHNNY U (ML=5/2), #7 ROYAL SQUEEZE (ML=5/1), #11 UNION BROTHER (ML=6/1),

JOHNNY U - Has been beaten as the public's choice in back to back races. A repeat is probably in store. The morning-line favorite is suspect here with the lack of workouts. ROYAL SQUEEZE - Should have at least hit the board in the last sixty days in a short distance event to be worth the chance at small odds in a sprint. Don't feel this runner will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's class figure. UNION BROTHER - Finished third in his most recent race with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 KREWE CHIEF is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,3,5,9] with [1,2,3,5,9] Total Cost: $36