Saturday 8/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #6 - Post: 8:08pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 48

Rating:

#5 CHARACTER COUNTS (ML=5/1)
#1 DAT DARES RIGHT (ML=5/2)


CHARACTER COUNTS - Filly has shown some pace. This shorter trip should be better for her. This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a thoroughbred that finished 2nd in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the show horse. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. DAT DARES RIGHT - Faced tougher last out at Evangeline Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders. That 48 fig this filly registered in her last clash tells me she's a big time player this time around. Have to forget about that last grass race. This filly should do better hitting the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KENZIE LOU (ML=7/5), #4 EXTESSA (ML=3/1),

KENZIE LOU - Hard to play a racer that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the very long layoff. This filly showed very liitle last time out. You believe this horse is going to win today just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top regularly. EXTESSA - Didn't land in the top three on April 2nd at Aqueduct. Followed it up with another less than stellar try.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DAT DARES RIGHT - Getting Lasix for the second time. While studying at grad school I did a lot of research on this, and my data proves fillys run much better the 2nd time. Take a good look at this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 CHARACTER COUNTS to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gillespie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT.124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MAX IN HEAVENLY 5/2
# 4 DARLING SECRET 4/1
# 6 LBH CARTEL DE OSCAR 20/1

MAX IN HEAVENLY has a quite good shot to take this race. Solid average Equibase speed figs in short races make this pony a solid choice. He ought to be given a chance given the decent speed figs. Could beat this group given the 81 speed fig posted in his last outing.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Hoosier Park

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/12 HOOSIER PARK

Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points

Race#: 1- - PACE 08/12 HOOSIER PARK

7 Lovely Munro 2/1 664.55 100 50.0 89.0 1:51.0 Tetrick, Trace 29

8 Elysium Seelster 9/2 628.17 90 81.7 86.0 1:52.6 Miller, Lewayne 14

6 Mel's Vicki Lou 5/1 627.78 90 68.3 84.0 1:52.5 Putnam, Joey 18

3 She Means Business 6/1 622.26 90 68.3 84.0 1:52.8 Bates, Brandon 17

9 Rockin Deo 15/1 621.55 80 35.0 83.0 1:52.7 Oosting, Michael 20

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Loop

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 3:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 55 - Purse:$3500 - N/W 6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 HANDCUFFED 7/5
# 4 TWO SHOES 2/1
# 1 IRISH MELVIN 6/1

We've got a vibe HANDCUFFED is going to get the win. Overall figures look very good. Can't throw her out of the picture. Could dominate this field, just look at the TrackMaster speed fig - 66 - from her most recent event. Talk about a dynamic duo, Piwniuk and Williams have some of the best driver/trainer stats at the track. TWO SHOES - A specialty of the consortium is recognizing a trainer with a good return on investment percent when a horse goes down in class. Many harness players know speed is of the utmost importance. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 63 average figure. IRISH MELVIN - This horse has the ability to take positive advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at The Meadows

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/12 THE MEADOWS

Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points

Race#: 4- - TROT 08/12 THE MEADOWS

4 Just Like Magic 2/1 579.75 100 25.0 85.0 1:55.6 Svrcek, Tom 12

5 Never Say Uncle 7/2 529.69 80 86.7 86.0 1:56.6 Harvey, Naquel 13

8 A Royal Line 20/1 514.22 70 31.7 85.0 1:56.5 Oldford, Stephen 12

2 Walkingintherain 7/1 511.51 80 100.0 78.0 1:56.2 Kehm, Jerry 3

3 Wickenburgh 5/1 506.40 60 >21 51.7 80.2 1:56.3 Dinges, Tony 12

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
3	3	CHARIOT DRIVE	7/2	Randall, Jay - 18	475.65
2	2	MISTER GODRO	2/1	Dobson, Billy - 12	474.76
4	4	FATHER OFTHE YEAR	6/1	Gray, Shawn T - 19	467.21
6	6	TREASURE MACH	12/1	Fluet, Phil - 10	455.11
7	7	ROCK N TONY	3/1	Beckwith, Brett - 16	448.00
5	5	ALL IT TAKES	10/1	Long, Chris - 12	441.87
1	1	BARNARD HANOVER	15/1	Devaux, Jim - 19	435.13
8	8	BEST SHOT N	20/1	Athearn, Matthew - 11	422.15

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Topsham

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
8	8	CALL ME MAVERICK	4/1	Stevenson, Michael - 8	501.46
1	1	GRAND GALOP SEMALU	7/2	Deslandes, Dan - 19	481.82
2	2	AIRSPINDER	5/2	Switzer, Kevin Jr - 30	476.23
4	4	SEE YOU FRIDAY	5/1	Ranger, Bruce - 21	475.12
7	7	THROUGH THE FENCE	9/2	Case, Walter Jr - 15	462.04
5	5	READYFORTHELADYS	6/1	Hall, Aaron - 6	451.58
3	3	LORD WILLOUGHBY A	4/1	Asher-Stalbaum, Winter - 10	440.63
6	6	GOTTI	8/1	Asher-Stalbaum, Winter - 10	411.53

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Post: 9:55 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$22200 - ONTARIO SIRES STAKES: GRASSROOTS LEG 3: 3 YEAR OLD TROTTING COLTS & GELDINGS. STARTING FEE $400 CDN

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 RICARDO 5/1
# 8 LITE THE CANDLES 5/2
# 5 THE GREAT EMOTION 6/1

The selection this time is RICARDO. Could surprise us at a good price. Don't leave out. This standardbred could get the win here beginning from the Woodbine Mohawk Park 6 hole. Gelding and driver go together like Sonny and Cher. They finish in the money 100 percent of their races. LITE THE CANDLES - With a 76 avg class figure, this nice horse has one of the most compelling class advantages in the group of horses. This trainer, and the driver McClure, go together like two peas in a pod. Their results together are outstanding. THE GREAT EMOTION - The 5 slot sports a much better than average win statistic at Woodbine Mohawk Park. Worth considering this time if only for the really good speed fig achieved in the last gathering.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/12/23

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August 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Free and Humble
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Free and Humble stayed on willingly after a wide trip when third in a similar affair last month and seems sure to improve with the re-addition of blinkers and an ideal inside draw. She’s run well over this course in the past, retains top rider Juan Hernandez, and shows an easy breeze in the interim to tick her over. She’s the logical top pick and 9/5 morning line favorite.

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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Mastering; 2-Redline
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Mastering exits a starter’s allowance race and should find this straight $40,000 claiming field well within his capabilities. The main concern is his failure to win at Los Alamitos at 2/5 in his most recent start, but he was four lengths clear of the rest and earned a strong speed figure, so perhaps the defeat wasn’t as alarming as it appears. It is the time of the year when horses are being culled to make room for the freshmen class and new purchases, so some class drops can be forgiven and maybe this is one of them. Redline is another class dropper to consider. The Steve Knapp-trained colt was a two-turn winner at Los Alamitos in June but was simply in too tough when unplaced in a strong second level allowance event here last month. He can bounce back today against this group.

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RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Den of Iniquity 3-Night Blue; 1-Irish Rose
Backups/savers/Underneath: none

Forecast: Den of Iniquity is fresh off the plane from Ireland and appears fit, ready, and properly spotted to graduate for trainer Phil D’Amato, who always does very well with these European imports. She’s nicely drawn inside, lands Juan Hernandez, is a first time Lasix user, and has Timeform Ratings that are sufficient to win a maiden race on this circuit. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’ll offer good wagering value. Her D’Amato-trained stablemate, fellow Irish-bred Night Blue, has a similar pattern and is the one to fear most. Fourth in a 20-runner race at Leopardstown last time out, she’s another that will race with Lasix for the first time and should be quite competitive on this circuit. Irish Rose has yet to crack par for the level on the Beyer scale, but her numbers are gradually improving and from her inside draw the Neil Drysdale-trained filly projects to be the controlling speed. She was second with that type of trip last time out, but today’s slightly shorter distance could make help considerably.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Sir London; 2-Ever a Rebel
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the fourth race, a contentious entry-level allowance optional claiming main track miler for older horses. Sir London returned off a long layoff to finish a solid second in a quick sprint at Santa Anita last month and should use that race as a springboard for this stretch out to a more favorable distance. The son of Malibu Moon was once well regarded and has a history of improving with racing, so we’re expecting a significant forward move today. Ever a Rebel finished nowhere in the Oceanside Stakes on opening day on turf, so he’s back in the allowance ranks today and back on dirt. He’s a strong fit on speed figures with his best effort and has excellent tactical speed that should produce an ideal pace pressing, ground-saving trip. A recent bullet half mile workout (:46 4/5, fastest of 50) is another positive factor.

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RACE 5: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Smile Baby Smile
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Smile Baby Smile looks ready to graduate in this modest maiden special weight sprint for California-bred two-year-old fillies. She’s had a couple of runs and seems to be improving, most recently finishing a willing runner-up while well clear of the rest after a bit of a slow start. The daughter of Smiling Tiger obviously is no world beater but won’t have to be against this group, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make the Andy Mathis-trained filly a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Benedetta; 2-Dreamfyre; 3-Dua
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Impressive Los Alamitos debut winner Benedetta has the luxury of the outside draw, which will allow her to pop and go or stalk and pounce in this year’s edition of the Sorrento Stakes-G3 for juvenile fillies. She won with something in the tank in her debut but today will need to step it up when facing at least two other fast and highly regarded fillies. The daughter of City of Light is filly of strength and scope and it’ll be interesting to see how much progress she’s made between her first and second starts. Dreamfyre debuted against colts in a stakes at Pleasanton and left them in the dust with an impressive display of raw speed. She may be the quickest in the field and it would not be surprising to see her remain a strong factor throughout. Doa made hard work of it when winning her debut last month, but we’ll give her credit for fighting off all changes to win in a blanket finish. Today we’ll see what she’s really made of.

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RACE 7: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Runninwiththeboyz; 5-Carmen Miranda.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Runninwiththeboyz couldn’t stay nine furlongs in her first try around two turns, faltering under pressure despite an easy trip on the front end. She’s back sprinting today where she belongs, and the Jeff Mullins-trained filly seems likely to return to her best form. A perfect one-for-one over this sharp five furlong distance, the daughter of Liam’s Map projects to settle in the second flight and then blast home. Carmen Miranda won a clever first-level allowance turf sprint at Santa Anita in late April with a career top speed figure but hasn’t been out since. She returns with a steady and healthy series of drills for trainer Phil D’Amato and has won over this turf course in the past, albeit at a mile. Not sure if this distance will prove to be too sharp for her, but we fully expect the daughter of Stanford to be running on strongly late.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Pastor T
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Sir Maximus

Forecast: Pastor T breezed from the gate with Muth last Sunday and went stride-for-stride with that $2 million colt every step of the way. We caught the team out a full six furlongs in 1:13 flat, with neither one asked for their best. Considering that the workmate will be odds-on in tomorrow’s Best Pal St.-G2 after breaking his maiden in a cakewalk at Santa Anita, this was a highly impressive drill for the first timer by Into Mischief from multiple stakes winner Top Quality. He’s listed at 8/5 on the morning line but we’ll guess that he’ll leave at odds-on.

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RACE 9: Post: 6:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Turnerloose; 3-Spirit And Glory; 1-Closing Remarks
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Turnerloose makes her first start of the season and first for new trainer Phil D’Amato, and with an impressive work tab that tells us she’s primed and ready let’s take a gamble on this daughter of Nyquist in this year’s renewal of the Yellow Ribbon Handicap-G2 for older fillies and mares. A stakes winner on grass as a 2-year-old and a graded stakes winner at three on dirt, she was always a versatile and genuine race filly when conditioned by Brad Cox and we expect she’ll remain the same for her California conditioner. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, she offers an excellent price chance in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Main contenders include Spirit And Glory, a Monmouth Park shipper with a turf stakes win two runs back and speed figures that fit with these, and Closing Remarks, successful in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 at Santa Anita three races back, ideally drawn on the rail, and with proven winning form over the Del Mar grass course.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:45 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Missed Call; 6-Warrior Road; 4-Bag’s Gold
Backups/savers: 11-Cathedral Light.

Forecast: The finale is a difficult abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 older claimers that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Missed Call may be as good as any. Claimed in two of his last three starts and now in the Kristin Mulhall barn, the Dialed In gelding has recent numbers that make him dangerous and will be re-equipped with blinkers after finishing a respectable fourth in a similar affair here last month. He shortens up a furlong and should be a late threat. Warrior Road just won a maiden $20,000 affair underneath this bug boy with an okay number and is realistically spotted based on numbers. Bag’s Gold won a maiden $50,000 dash last fall but then was turned out. He returns cheap and will be competitive if he’s the same type of horse this time around.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/12/23

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August 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Tall Paul
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Quiet Wisdom

Forecast: Tall Paul finished an excellent second in a quick maiden special weight juvenile dash at Del Mar on opening weekend and then was shipped to Saratoga to take advantage of his New York-bred status. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Frosted had a nice breeze over the Saratoga main track earlier this week and with any kind of forward move should take care of business at a short price.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Ocean Mermaid
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ocean Mermaid left as the 4/5 favorite in her debut in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Gulfstream Park in May and ran a winning race but had to settle for second (while almost six lengths clear of the rest) after chasing home Crimson Advocate, who certainly franked the form by winning at Royal Ascot in her next outing. ‘Mermaid shows a light series of only three breezes since that race but we’re going to assume that she’s fit and ready for trainer Wesley Ward, whose record with layoff runners (28%, strong ROI) is off the charts. Despite facing colts in this abbreviated turf dash, the English-bred daughter of Kingman is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, but we’d have to think she’ll go lower.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:17 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Sa Fordada; 3-Freudian; 1-Jolly Miss Jill
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Mursal.

Forecast: We’ll spread the third race, a starter allowance ($50,000) main track miler for fillies and mares in which the main contention is drawn inside. Sa Fordada has won or hit the board in each of her last six starts and is well placed to fire another good shot. She has a good stalking style for this trip and numbers that are good enough to win. Freudian returns from Monmouth Park, where she wound up second in optional claimer while earning a career top speed figure. She’s always preferred to run second or third (nine times) rather than win (three times), but her best race puts her right there. Jolly Miss Jill crushed a softer restricted (nw-2) $25,000 field over this track and distance last month and was claimed by a low profile but competent outfit. From her inside draw she’ll likely employ gate to wire tactics and if not pressured could take this field a long way.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:48 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): One Giant Leap; 5-Kupp
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: One Giant Leap finished a distant second in his debut but has won his last two starts in good style, most recently at Keeneland when drawing away with authority to register a four length score in a restricted (nw-2) $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. However, he was a voided claim and was forced to miss time, returning today following a three and one-half month layoff in a $32,000 sprint, not a healthy pattern, for sure. He’s also a first time gelding, so there’s lots to consider. However, on pure numbers, the Wesley Ward-trained son of Will Take Charge is simply faster than these, so if he fires his best shot he’ll be hard handle. Kupp is worth tossing in just in case ‘Leap regresses. The Mor Spirit gelding is working on his own two race winning streak, though his numbers are short of what they’ll need to be to win. He’s proven to be a versatile sprinter who can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Reynolds Channel; 5-Deterministic
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Informed Patriot.

Forecast: Reynolds Channel is bred more for distance than he is for a sprint, but this highly promising juvenile colt has done everything in the morning like a quality prospect. The Bill Mott-trained son of West Coast brought $300,000 as a yearling, which speaks to his physical attributes, and a strong and consistent work tab should have him plenty fit and ready. Deterministic is another talented newcomer with credentials to win early. The son of Liam’s Map is light in the first dam but still brought $625,000 at auction at Keeneland and has trained in splendid style, showing excellent speed and athleticism in the local drills that were able to view on video.


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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Richies Princess; 1a-Foxy Cara; 10-Souffle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Chicago invader Richies Princess appears to have found a proper spot to win at first asking in this state-bred dash for fillies and mares. The Larry Rivelli-trained daughter of Laoban was given a solid foundation of drills at her home base at Hawthorne and then had a sharp half mile blowout (:47 flat, bullet work, fastest of 50) to have her right edge on for this six furlong dash. A half-sister to the multiple stakes winning Jean Elizabeth (16 wins from 21 starts), ‘Princess appears to be made of the right stuff and attracts top rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Foxy Cara, in the frame in four of five career starts, shows competitive speed figures but at this stage can’t really beat a good maiden. She’s a one-paced grinding type but can be dangerous if our top pick runs below expectations. Souffle
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RACE 7: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Love Reigns; Love Appeals.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Redefined.

Forecast: Love Reigns was a stakes winner over this course and distance as a 2-year-old and won her only start this year when capturing the Limestone Stakes at Keeneland in April with a career top number. She clearly can fire fresh, so this four month gap in between races is of no concern. She wins this year’s edition of the Galway Stakes for 3-year-old fillies with anything close to her best race, and while she’s listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t go lower. Love Appeals missed as the favorite (beaten a neck) as the favorite in a listed turf sprint stakes at Monmouth Park last month. She’s not a quick type but can turn it on late and may be the one that our top pick has to worry about the most.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Rhyme Schemes
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Rhyme Schemes arrives from Ellis Park after blowing out a maiden field by more than nine lengths in mid-June speed and authority and looking very much like a future star. He’s 4/5 on the morning line for this year’s edition of the Saratoga Special-G2 and it will take something unforeseen to beat this son of Ghostzapper if he shows up with the same type of explosion that he exhibited at the Pea Patch.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Casa Creed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Annapolis.

Forecast: Casa Creed is the defending Fourstardave H.-G1 winner and appears to be every bit as good now as he was last year following his strong recent win in the local prep for this race, the Kelso S.-G3 over this course and distance last month. A true Saratoga specialist with three wins and two thirds in five career starts at the Spa, the veteran son of Jimmy Creed likes to settle early and blast home, and with two nice local breezes to tick him over we’re expecting the Bill Mott-trained horse to continue his winning ways.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Order of Magnitude; 2-Forrest City; 5-Mistical Curlin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Memphis.

Forecast: Here’s a challenging starter’s allowance main track miler that offers several possibilities. Order of Magnitude is a first-off-the-claim play for Robertino Diodoro and could be dangerous right back after wiring the field over this track and distance in a restricted $25,000 affair last month. He’s fast on numbers and can win on the front end or from a stalking position. We also like the fact that his new connections are protecting him today, so at 8-1 on the morning line he may be worth a bit of a gamble. Forrest City moves into the Bill Mott barn and has a right to produce a forward move. Second in most recent three outings at Indianapolis Horseshoe, the son of Munnings is lightly raced with good tactical speed and won’t really have to improve much to win on this tougher circuit at 6-1 on the morning line. He projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from there. Mistical Curlin has two very good recent races, but both were on sloppy surfaces that may have moved him up. Or, perhaps, he’s just improved. We have to use him somewhere.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:50 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Waterville; 4-Stella Mars
Backups/savers: 10-Rheaume.

Forecast: Waterville was a tad unlucky when rallying too late to wind up second in a similar state-bred first level allowance turf router here last month. She’ll add blinkers today for the first time while switching to Joel Rosario so with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Stella Mars is protected today after winning her last pair, first in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer and most recently in a competitive stater’s allowance affair with a career top speed figure. A repeat of her last effort may very well be good enough despite the class hike.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Milstein Pick 3 Analysis

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August 12, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a big 15-race card with the feature coming in Race 11, the Carl Milstein Memorial Pace with a $300,000 purse. The standout Bythemissal makes an appearance in the Myron Charna President's Pace that rolls in Race 10. My focus will be on the $1.00 Pick 3 sequence that starts in Race 9.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (8:56 PM EST)

1-It's Academic (7/5)-This Burke trainee has won 4 straight, the last three wins were big money stakes. Has won 6 of 9 in 2023 and has posted 3 wins in 7 starts here. Has been racing at another level compared to the others in this field.

Race 10 (9:18 PM ET)

2-Odds On Shaggy (10-1)-The Virgil Morgan trainee doesn't have the resume of a couple of horses in this field. But the 5-year-old has hit the board in 8 of 9 with 2 pictures, should be a price and has good gate speed. My thinking is Tyler Smith can leave and land on top until the Missal arrives on the scene. Could get a 2-hole ride, offer some juice for the gimmicks, and maybe do better than just hit the board if the chalk has a bumpy journey.
8-Bythemissal (2-1)-Comes off a sharp win in the Sam McKee from the 9-hole. Can leave as fast as the gate car and unless it's a bumpy journey to land on the point it should be picture time. The Burke trainee is for 2 for 2 at Nfld and is looking to post its 5th win in 6 tries this year.

Race 11-Milstein Memorial Pace (9:40 PM ET)

3-Captain Batboy (6-1)-Has good gate speed and performs well on smaller ovals. Jordan Stratton could get a good early seat and has a tactical advantage over others. Should offer a square price and could be sitting on a big try in the 3rd start since a sick scratch.
4-Redwood Hanover (5/2)-The Anthony Beatin pupil does good work at Wbsb and has been in the hunt finishing 2nd in 3 starts at the Meadows this year. Has enough gate speed to be put in play off the gate and should be racing near the top of the stack. On the downside, this is the first start at Nfld and might be over bet.
6-Goldin Greatness (10-1)-Big Apple invader will need a hot pace and a sharp steer. David Miller can handle the trip and the fraction should be lively, so it's best not to sleep on this price shot. Drew off by over 6 lengths in 151.2 and has won 2 straight. Willing to take a swing at the morning line price and could provide a nice return in the gimmicks.

$1.00 Pick 3

1/2,8/3,4,6
Total Bet=$6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Arlington Million Day Pick 3,4,5 | Saturday

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August 10, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Arlington Million sets up shop at Colonial Downs for the first time on Saturday and is part of a late pick five sequence that has a low 12% takeout. Within that wager is the late pick 4 as well as an all-stakes pick 3 that includes the Secretariat and Beverly D.

Let’s get to work.

Colonial Downs | Race 7 | handicap

Likely a chalky start to the pick 5 with #1 Bouncer (8-5 morning line) and #5 Frosted Departure (6-5 ML) standing out on class in just a 5-horse field. That factor pushes interest more into the later pick 4 and pick 3 in terms of value … unless you can develop a strong preference between the leading pair here and single. #1 Bouncer has more propensity to find the winner’s circle than the class-dropping Frosted Departure, who is just 1 for his last 10, and that’s how I’d lean if playing the pick 5 – otherwise await the later wagers.

Colonial Downs | Race 8 | Secretariat Stakes

Six of these 8 sophomores make a solid case for the victory in a Secretariat Stakes that’s been shortened to a one-mile affair from its former 10 furlongs. I’ll toss #2 Gigante and #8 Tee At One and accept equal coverage with the rest in a race that won’t produce a big price, but hopefully something mid-range. The value plays could be #4 Mo Stash and #5 Northern Invader given the presence of bigger-profile barns like Appleby, Motion and Pletcher with others. #7 More Than Looks is cross-entered at Saratoga and could scratch, reducing the ticket by one.

Colonial Downs | Race 9 | Beverly D. Stakes

#1 Fev Rover (2-1 ML favorite) and #5 Didia (3-1 ML) stand out in this field of 7, though it’s never easy to toss Chad Brown, who has #6 Gina Romantica (5-1 ML), in a F&M Turf division showcase. #5 Didia comes in fresher than #1 Fev Rover, the latter running a very hard third in the Diana at Saratoga against tougher competition last time. You could certainly argue to use both of the chalks, but my strategy is almost always to single in these either-or spots if you can discern between them. Give me #5 Didia.

Colonial Downs | Race 10 | Arlington Million

An 11-runner Arlington Million comes down to a trio for me. #4 Atone (7-2 ML favorite) should get a good trip from his post and near the front throughout. But it’s #6 Master Piece (12-1 ML) that I like most in a second-time Rick Dutrow situation, similar to White Abarrio’s rapid ascension last week in the Grade 1 Whitney. I’ll also include 4-time Million winner Chad Brown’s comebacker #9 Adhamo (10-1 ML), who is placed aggressively while working well and securing Flavien Prat.

Colonial Downs | Race 11 | allowance

In an entry-level allowance projected for a very hot pace, I’ll take 4 closers to finish out the sequence. #1 Cha Cha Mission (20-1 ML) could be sneaky here for move-up trainer Brittany Russell, who takes over for the first time and gets strong local pilot Jevian Toledo. #4 Watch This Birdie (5-1 ML) didn’t get any pace help last time when still breaking her maiden over the Colonial course. #8 Galilei (6-1 ML) reps the always-potent local combo of Horacio Karamanos-Mike Trombetta and exits a VA-bred stakes win. #11 Fish Mooney (5-1 ML) travels similarly over just about any footing, is 8-for-16 in the exacta lifetime, and should handle Colonial fine for a Casse barn having a big meet.

The Tickets
Pick 5 (Race 7): 1 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 with 1,4,8,11 = $36 for $.50 play
Pick 4 (Race 8): 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 with 1,4,8,11 = $36 for $.50 play
Pick 3 (Race 8): 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 = $9 for $.50 play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Prairie Meadows - Race #8

#1 Jaydensqueenofhearts	She might not be much more than a pace element from the inside with three running lines that include late fades, but there is also some chance she proves best of the speed and threatens to wire these from the rail.
#3 Nice One Julio	He can be tough in here with a couple underneath shares in recent starts, but I worry he's going to be overbet with this group and doesn't always finish his races with a ton of energy.
#8 Cel's Star	She's in for a tag for the first time off a couple of declining efforts, but maybe the wide draw with blinkers will give her a little room to chase the pace and improve today.
Race Summary	Jaydensqueenofhearts has faded badly in her last two, but she might be fastest early from the inside and could be a danger if she doesn't take a ton of heat into the lane.

Prairie Meadows - Race #9

#7 Lawless John	You'll probably have a decent hint into his fortunes in this spot by the time they hit the far turn, but he appears to be the most committed pace player in here and might be able to string these along enough to score.
#6 Big Luke	He's one of a couple in here with some ability from very close range, and he handled the move around two turns nicely enough last out to think he'll stick around to play a part in this again late.
#4 Warren L	He makes some sense while dropping out of the Iowa Derby, and his late-running style would make him tough if a couple of the pressing types forced middle moves and the pace started to come back.
Race Summary	Lawless John should be all or nothing on the engine here, but I'm hoping the other forward players will relax off him just a touch in hopes he'll come back.

Prairie Meadows - Race #10

#1 Sarah's Blue Boy	Not a whole lot to get excited about on paper, but he has a little positional speed from the inside that might make him dangerous while trying this cheaper kind for the first time. Won't surprise.
#6 Handsome Stranger	He's a good fit with these, but he has also given away ground in the stretch call in every one of his six career starts, so I don't trust him a whole lot late. Obvious chance.
#9 Quarternight	He proved competitive at this level last time out, and he has some mild finishing ability that might serve him well in a race without much reliable form of any kind. Plugs along late for something?
Race Summary	Sarah's Blue Boy doesn't bring particularly compelling form to this one, but his best try came for twice this price, and he might find this level the right place at the right time here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #6

#8 GOLDEN CHARM (9-2)	‘Good energy’ to finish second on turf, met promising rival next out on dirt.
#10 FLITTER (8-1)	Worked forwardly for debut but raced greenly as the fave, can awaken with Lasix.
#7 LITTLE JOSIE WALES (3-1)	Finished behind two MSW faves in latest and slow-starting duo two back.
Race Summary	GOLDEN CHARM broke slowly, circled 4-wide on the turn and ran second on the turf in her MSW debut. She dropped to this level and ran second throughout to promising Northern Glow (see 8th race pick) on the main track. Bet to win and place and play an 8,10/4, 7, 8, 10/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#6 NORTHERN GLOW (7-5)	Tracked fast pace, smartly handled on turn, clear second to three-peater.
#2 FRECCIA D’ARGENTO (3-	Had excuse against ‘Glow,’ second to odds-on winner in prior dirt sprint.
#3 CHARMING WAY (9-2)	Inhaled rivals on turn, won in first start for Ness after 2-to-5 fave backed up.
Race Summary	NORTHERN GLOW tracked a fast pace, was patiently handled as she advanced on the turn, darted inside for the stretch run and finished a clear second to a three-peat winner. She goes an extra furlong in her third start and is today’s Best Bet.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#7 CUPID’S DREAM (9-2)	Tired on ‘good’ turf, rallied to win prior two grass routes on firm ground.
#3 ANONYMOUSLY (8-1)	Drops to half of claiming price, had a year to work on bad gate antics.
#9 PRUDENT SONG (9-5)	Lightly-raced 5yo has good speed, tries to recapture allowance-winning form.
Race Summary	CUPID’S DREAM, put into play earlier at this level last out, gave way in the stretch on soft footing. She changes riders and figures close-up throughout at a distance which she has a win. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - August 12

Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Firsttimeinforever	J Bravo
PLACE	9-5	1	Free and Humble	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	6	Luminiferous	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	3-1	4	Sherlyn Go Go	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Ipanema Princess	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Havana Angel	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $35,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 MASTERING
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	Mastering	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	8	Cyberviking	M Gutierrez
SHOW	6-1	1	Direct Line	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Redline	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Kingmeister	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Taishan	J Bravo
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
RACE #3 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	La Peer	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	1	Irish Rose	H I Berrios
SHOW	3-1	3	Night Blue	J Bravo
WILD CARD	6-1	7	The Flying Pharoah	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	2	Den of Iniquity	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Sakura Flavor	M E Smith
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #4 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Oviatt Class	U Rispoli
PLACE	5-1	6	Fast Draw Munnings	H I Berrios
SHOW	5-2	8	Sir London	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Indulge	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Finneus	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Telos	J Valdivia Jr.
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #5 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Borntostaythirsty	U Rispoli
PLACE	5-2	4	Smile Baby Smile	R A Vazquez
SHOW	7-2	7	Safa	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Hot Danzing	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	8	Lighting and Reign	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Hayley Amber	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Dua	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	2	Dreamfyre	H I Berrios
SHOW	6-1	7	Ur in Trouble	A Fresu
WILD CARD	2-1	8	Benedetta	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Vinos Angel	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Feisty Mitole	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #7 $84,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 CARMEN MIRANDA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Carmen Miranda	R A Vazquez
PLACE	5-2	8	Runninwiththeboyz	H I Berrios
SHOW	4-1	4	Stressed	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Hotitude	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Secrets Told	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Baby Kristen	A Ayuso
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #8 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	4	I Win Again	E A Maldonado
PLACE	8-5	8	Pastor T	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-2	6	Point Dume	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Sir Maximus	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	In Suspense	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Ario	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $250,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Closing Remarks	U Rispoli
PLACE	3-1	4	School Dance	R A Vazquez
SHOW	8-1	2	Turnerloose	A Fresu
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Awake At Midnyte	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Lucky Girl	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Ganadora	J J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #10 $14,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 WARRIOR ROAD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	6	Warrior Road	A Alsagoor
PLACE	12-1	1	Sir Flatter	T J Pereira
SHOW	6-1	11	Cathedral Light	A Espinoza
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Missed Call	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Aurelian Man	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Bags Gold	J Torrealba
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/11 BOX, 1/7/11 BOX