Sunday 8/13/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 08-13-2023, 04:50 AM

Scott Rickenbach

Rotation #200030: English Premier League: Sunday Free Pick UNDER 2.5 +120 in Brentford vs Tottenham @ 9 AM ET - With Harry Kane now heading to Bayern in Germany and saying goodbye to Tottenham coupled with Ivan Toney being suspended, as of now, for Brentford - you have some unknowns here. Yes, both clubs still capable of putting up big goals but I think the recent changes, including new manager at Tottenham, could absolutely have a huge impact here on the outcome in an early-season match like this. Look for a 1-1 type match the way I see it as both teams might be a little cautions and Brentford is at home here and played some low-scoring matches over the summer. Free Pick UNDER 2.5 +120 in Brentford

**ConleyPicks** · 08-13-2023, 04:51 AM

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Toulouse +175

**ConleyPicks** · 08-13-2023, 04:51 AM

Stephen Nover

Free Pick: Red Sox -126

The Tigers halted the Red Sox's three-game win streak on Saturday. But I don't see Detroit winning again today in this series finale.

The lay price is low enough to back the Red Sox, who are 34-28 at home.

The main reason for the low price on Boston is Detroit pitching lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 8-5 with a 2.75 ERA. Rodriguez opposes Kutter Crawford, who is 5-5 with a 3.62 ERA.

Boston, though, is 20-12 against southpaw starting pitchers. The Red Sox rank sixth in OBP versus lefties.

Crawford has the easier task. The Tigers rank in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. Crawford is 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA when pitching in day games this season.

The Tigers don't figure to have Javier Baez in their lineup as he's expected to go on the bereavement list today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-13-2023, 12:10 PM

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Sunday, August 13, 2023

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-13-2023, 12:12 PM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/13/23

August 13, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Penny’s Hope; 6-Sand to Sea
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Hey Demps.

Forecast: Penny’s Hope has trained like a precocious sort for Dan Blacker and appears to own sufficient talent to win at first asking in this state-bred maiden dash for older fillies and mares. Certainly bred to win early, the Harris Farm homebred is a daughter of Smiling Tiger and should come out firing in a race in which the known element doesn’t inspire. She’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and at that price we’ll make her a gamble. Sand to Sea and been burning up the track in the a.m. for a trainer that normally lets them roll, so she may not be quite as quick as her final times might indicate. However, when a maiden works that fast, you have to take notice.

*

RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-President Z
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: President Z looks well-spotted in this $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Drawn comfortably outside, the Dan Blacker-trained gelding moves up a notch after being claimed out of a strong abbreviated sprint last time out in which he was beaten a nose while more than five lengths clear of the rest. It was his first start in 10 months, so if he improves just a little, or even just runs back to that race, the son of Kantharos should be hard to beat. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Elegant
Backups/savers/Underneath: 9-Rascality.

Forecast: Elegant breezed stride-for-stride with stable mate Prince of Monaco (an eight length debut maiden winner at Los Alamitos and entered in today’s Best Pal Stakes) and more than held her own - see workout - in a gate drill that was timed in :59 2/5 last week. The daughter of Omaha Beach appeared extremely fit (galloped out strongly) and blessed with much speed and talent (was never asked) and seems certain to get bet off the board, most likely lower than her morning line of 8/5. We’ll make her a rolling exotic single, but she’ll probably be too short of a price to use in the win pool.

*

RACE 4: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Muth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Prince of Monaco.

Forecast: Muth squashed his overmatched competition in his debut at Santa Anita as expected, winning off by himself at 30 cents on the dollar without ever being asked for his best. The $2 million son of Curlin should pretty much do the same against this group in the Best Pal S.-G2, though his stablemate (and projected second choice) Prince of Monaco is a highly promising colt in his own right, having galloped to victory by eight lengths last month at Los Alamitos. It will be highly surprising if they don’t finish one-two.

*

RACE 5: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Dr. No No
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Dr. No No was extremely well meant in his debut but broke a bit slowly, was forced wide, and then simply gave himself too much to do when winding up a close third while beaten a length behind the winner, who returned to finish second in a Cal-bred stakes on Friday). With a clean break today, the son of Smiling Tiger should being able to make the lead, or at worst draft into a pace pressing/stalking position and then go on with given his cue. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 6: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Exultation; 7-Hurricane Cloud; 6-Eastern Ocean
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: This grass grab bag requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by using just three. Exultation was a sharp comeback winner at Santa Anita in June when facing starter’s allowance foes and moves into the straight $50,000 claiming ranks with numbers that make him a major player despite the class hike. He might be more comfortable as a sprinter but has won (via disqualification) over this course and distance in the past. Top rider Juan Hernandez stays aboard and should have this Peter Eurton-trained gelding within range throughout. Hurricane Cloud hasn’t been out since a visually pleasing win at Santa Anita in the spring of last year. He’s waiver protected and has been training smartly at San Luis Rey Downs for his return, so if ready the English-bred gelding looks like as serious player at 4-1 on the morning line. Eastern Ocean, a winner over the local lawn at this one mile trip just 10 days ago, earned a speed figure that makes him a contender right back if the short rest doesn’t have a negative effect.

*

RACE 7: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Devil Be Me; 7-In Vronsky Style
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Devil Be Me seeks his third straight win after back-to-back scores in a maiden state-bred event followed by a starter allowance sprint tally at Santa Anita. This first level allowance company figures to be his toughest test yet in his first try around two turns but the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Grazen has rising speed figures and enough speed to be on or near the lead from the bell. Stablemate In Vronsky Style was scratched on Friday in preference to this spot, and while he’s been primarily a sprinter throughout his career this one mile trip should be within his range. The pace projection is a bit volatile since both speed types hail from the same stable and we doubt the trainer will want to see them go head-and-head. If it comes to it, which one will concede the lead to the other?

*

RACE 8: Post: 5:44 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Del Mar Jerry; 5-X J Rascal; 12-Reiquist
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Almost Snow.

Forecast: Let’s take a bit of a flyer at 6-1 on the morning line with Del Mar Jerry in this first level allowance optional claiming miler. The Mastery colt tries turf for the first time after a brutal trip from the dreaded rail in a hot sprint here last month and before that was pitched too high when chasing home subsequent Haskell S.-G1 winner Geaux Rocket Ride. The Michael McCarthy-trained colt breezed quite well over the local lawn 10 days ago, switches to top rider Juan Hernandez, and should have a chance to verify the favorable impression he made in his winning debut in May. X J Rascal turned in a strong runner-up effort in his U.S. debut last month when finishing a very good second in a hot race for the level. He’s right there again with a repeat of that effort today. Reiquist stretches out for the first time (and switches to grass) and certainly is much better than his last race shows. The Tim Yakteen-trained colt will have to overcome the far outside draw (no easy task) but he’s a colt of some talent and should be given a price chance to run back to his runaway maiden sprint win two races back.

*

RACE 9: Post: 6:14 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-I’m a Risque Girl
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: I’m a Risque Girl shows up in a seller for the first time and appears properly spotted in this six furlong sprint for maiden California-bred fillies and mares. Overmatched but not embarrassed in the Pleasanton Oaks last time out, the Andy Mathis-trained sophomore ran well in a pair of straight maiden dashes before that while in one case earning a speed figure that is far superior to par for this level. While she’s not particularly quick early, she should be within range throughout in this softer affair and we’re expecting her to exert her superiority through the lane. At 4-1 on the morning line, we’ll use her as a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 10: Post: 6:44 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): National Road
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: The finale is a starter’s allowance turf miler offering several possibilities. Rather than spread the race, we’ll sink or swim with National Road, especially with the presence of Flavian Prat in the saddle. Away for 11 months, the Mark Glatt-trained gelding has run well fresh in the past and shows a solid series of recent workouts that should have him fit enough. Still eligible to this non-winners of two ($50,000) condition, he’s run very well at this level in the past over this course and distance, and also shows an edge on speed figures, so let’s go with the fresh face at 7/2 on the morning line.

*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-13-2023, 12:13 PM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/13/23

August 13, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Stellamaris; 7-Clearly a Test
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Seven furlongs is a challenging distance for a first time starter but in a maiden special weight sprint for juveniles fillies that came up a bit light, Stellamaris may be able to win at first asking. From the first crop of Catalina Cruiser, she has been given a solid foundation of local workouts to be plenty fit and she has shown enough in her morning trials - view workout - to indicate a decent amount of ability. We’ll give her the edge on top over Clearly a Test, who has the benefit of a race over the track (a distant but okay fourth in a strong race) and seems sure to improve with experience and today’s extra furlong and one-half.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Sea Dancer; 2-Nikitis
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: This middle distance maiden turf event for juvenile fillies has at least two very nice prospects signed on. Sea Dancer was given a run sprinting at Belmont Park last month and did quite well to finish third (galloped out in front) without being knocked about while providing every indication that she’ll enjoy more distance. Today, she gets it. The daughter of Mastery had a recent main track breeze to tick her over and hails from a barn that has superior stats (24%) with the second time starter angle. The barn’s go-to rider takes the call, so at 9/2 on the morning line the Bill Morey-trained juvenile offers excellent wagering strategy in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Then there’s the first timer from Chad Brown’s barn, Nikitis. The daughter of Audible brought $535,000 at the OBS April Sale after breezing in :10 flat at the preview session (looked terrific) and then more than held her own in a team gate drill with Ways and Means - view workout - and was flattered when her workmate broke her maiden last week by more than 12 lengths at first asking.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Jemography; 1-Float On
Backups/savers/Underneath: 4-Scilly Cay.

Forecast: Jemography been freshened since February and returns waiver protected in this $32,000 claiming sprint for older horses. From a stable that sports solid stats (21%) with layoff runners, the veteran son of Big Brown has finished first or second in 22 of 22 career starts and has worked well enough at Belmont Park to be fit and ready. He’s most effective on or near the lead and catches what appears to be a very favorable pace scenario, so at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll put him on top. Float On joins the David Jacobson barn and picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr., so there is every expectation that this shipper from Parx will improve enough to be a solid fit at this level on this circuit. The Bluegrass Cat gelding always has been genuine and consistent (nine wins, in the frame in 25 of 37 career starts), so if he can avoid trouble from his rail draw we’re expecting him to offer a challenge at 6-1 on the morning line.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): City Fever; Cigarette Boat; American Know How.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: City Fever, Cigarette Boat and American Know How finished heads apart when second, third, and fourth, respectively, in a similar sprint over this course and distance last month and are extremely difficult to separate again. It was ‘Fever’s racing debut (the other two had several prior runs) so it stands to reason that the son of City of Light has the most reason to improve. The Michael Trombetta-trained sophomore shows nice two nice breezes in the interim, retains Irad Ortiz, Jr., and likely will be closer to the pace this time after a rugged start last time out that found him well back in the pack during the early stages. Let’s give him the bulk of the play.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Operation Torch; 2-Clever Thought
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Operation Torch had the misfortune of facing subsequent Saratoga Derby Invitational winner Program Trading in a similar entry level allowance middle distance turf affair last time out and was no match while more than four lengths clear of the rest but won’t have that undefeated colt to worry about today and thus is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. The son of War Front has a good stalking style and should appreciate this nine furlong trip, so Shug’s colt looks very much like the winner but at a price that won’t offer any wagering value. Clever Thought has a reasonable chance to offer a challenge if his improving pattern continues. The son of Quality Road rallied against the grain to just miss in a similar affair at Belmont Park in early June and could produce another significant forward move today for trainer Todd Pletcher. Though lacking tactical speed, this promising sophomore can really turn it on late, so with a little help up front he could be tough to contain in the closing stages.

*

RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Crazy Cami; 2-Zadorsky; 5-Echo Lake.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Shimmering Allure; 9-Lady Prospect.

Forecast: Here’s a borderline inscrutable maiden juvenile filly sprint that is restricted to those that brought $50,000 or less (or who RNA’d for that price) at auction. The first timers don’t particularly inspire but in a weak affair it would not be surprising to see one of them pop up and win it. Crazy Cami had a fair to moderate run when finishing a distant third in her debut last month and has every right to build on that effort today with the addition of blinkers. She’ll need to leave cleanly from the rail to avoid trouble,. Zadorsky displayed good ability when nosed out in her debut at Ellis Park (was six lengths clear of a next out winner) but then went backwards without an excuse to finish third (beaten nine lengths) as the favorite in her most recent outing. Will she bounce back today or regress again? Echo Lake is bred for much speed (Catalina Cruiser) and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., so she may be the most intriguing of the newcomers. Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.
*

RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Vittorio; 3-Khozeiress; 5-Looms Boldly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll spread the seventh race, a seven furlong second-level allowance affair for fillies and mares. Vittorio shows a distinct edge in the speed figure department, so if he can avoid traffic trouble from the rail the Bill Mott-trained horse is logically the one to beat. The main issue is a series of hard, taxing races and a losing streak that dates back to December of 202. Khozeiress isn’t as fast on figures as Vittorio but he is lightly raced, consistent, and has plenty of room to improve. He’ll be taking on older horses for the first time after getting nosed out in the Carry Back Stakes at Gulfstream Park in June. The son of Khozan projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking trip and have every chance from there. Looms Boldly might be the quickest in the field, and if he can shake loose without pressure the son of Goldencents may get brave and keep on going, just as he did when dismantling a moderate field at Finger Lakes in late June. He’s probably a bit better than his 10-1 morning line indicates.

*

RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Dreamlike; 7-Magic Tap
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Film Star.

Forecast: Dreamlike is a developing son of Gun Runner fresh from a dominating maiden score over this track and distance last month in his fourth career start. Third when beaten a head as a maiden in the Wood Memorial two races back, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has numbers that have been consistently strong and should allow him to highly competitive on the raise in this first level allowance affair. Ellis Park shipper Magic Tap is strictly the one to beat most after missing by a head (five clear of the rest) at this distance and level last time out. He’s worked quite well since arriving at the Spa, so this Steve Asmussen-trained son of Tapit almost certainly will fire another big shot.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-He’smyhoneybadger; 1-H P Moon; 8-Candy Tycoon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: He’smyhoneybadger is a solid and consistent older gelding with speed figures that are good enough to beat this field. The Tom Amoss-trained five-year-old finished far back in stronger race at Ellis Park in his most recent outing but is realistically dropped to the optional $62,500 claiming level today, shows three nice local workouts, and should bounce back in a big way after a six week vacation. The barn’s “go-to” rider Tyler Gaffalione takes the call. H P Moon, freshened since May, returns with a relatively brief work tab but if ready the Linda Rice-trained gelding should fit well with these. He’s lightly raced (just six starts) with plenty of room to improve, and with a clean break from the rail projects to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s still a by shy in the speed figure department but is certain to improve with experience and maturity. Candy Tycoon gets a major upgrade in trainer and is likely to improve, though he’ll have to. The Florida shipper picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. and is guaranteed a soft, second flight trip from his comfortable outside draw.

*

RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Eye Witness; 4-Uncashed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Eye Witness missed by a head in his debut last September has not lost since, reeling off three successive victories, most recently in Paradise Creek Stakes at Belmont Park in May. He’s back up to an abbreviated sprint in this year’s renewal of the Mahony Stakes, but the shortened journey and the projected much quicker early pace actually should benefit this prototype late-running grass sprinter. The Wesley Ward-trained son of City of Light retains Jose Ortiz and with a properly timed ride should be able to tag the leaders close home. At 9/2 on the morning line he’ll offer good value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Uncashed, a winner of five of six career outings including the sloppy track Quick Call Stakes last month, is easily the quickest in the field, and if he can produce his dirt form on turf, the son of Uncaptured may very well be long gone. At 3-1 on the morning line, you have to include him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-13-2023, 12:14 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #4

#6 B L's Concerto	He doesn't tend to stay too well late in his races, but he appears to be the controlling speed in here and might be able to stretch this group out a little bit while moving to the turf for the first time. Interesting enough if he doesn't take a ton of heat early.
#2 Total Surprise	He makes a lot of sense here, but he has already had a lot of chances and hasn't shown a great instinct for finding the wire when he has been in a bunch of really good spots late in his races. Obvious player, but I think you're supposed to want to beat him.
#3 Angel of Attack	He's bred to be better than he has shown so far, and I think he's worth another look at this two-turn turf trip after only trying it previously in his career debut.
Race Summary	B L's Concerto stretches out on turf for the first time, and he has enough pace to potentially control this one into the first turn. Price might be right to see if the race flow gives him a chance.

Canterbury Park - Race #7

#2 Ann Alee	She might have to handle a little bit of early heat, but she should appreciate the class relief after chasing a toughie last time out in stakes company. Think she's tough today if she handles the new footing.
#5 Sunshine Fever	She has a little appeal here while cutting back after showing route pace in that last one, and it's easy to see her finding a close-up tracking trip like the two-back effort.
#6 Diamond Missy	She has a little bit of finishing ability at times that might serve her well in a race with a few capable forward players, but she's another with the turf question to answer here. Would want a solid price.
Race Summary	Ann Alee couldn't hang late in stakes company last out, but she caught a tough winner that day and should find this group a bit more to her liking.

Canterbury Park - Race #3

#1 Cinco Majestic	He showed the briefest of chasing pace before fading in the debut run, but I wonder if he can sustain that effort a bit better with that run under his belt. Capable of better?
#4 Bluejay Way	He ran well at 9/5 in the debut run when in touch throughout, and he looks like the clear one to beat in here with that race to his name. Thinking he'll be in the mix with the top choice from the start.
#3 Skinny Bobby	He has to turn tables on Bluejay Way from that first try, but he has some upside here and is another who flashed a little chasing pace in the debut run. Capable.
Race Summary	Cinco Majestic might offer a playable enough price after fading hard late in the debut run, but I'm hoping his speed will carry better today with that first experience out of the way.