Tuesday 8/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:36 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#1 Kotylos	He took his time finding that first career win, but he was sharp when drawing off last time out, and he might land a cozy trip from the inside with some quicker players likely to cross over. Think there is a lot to like today.
#4 Uncle Jock	Reliable player tends to find himself in a good spot turning for home, but he often lacks that final gear to punch through the line. Obvious player on baseline form, but I think you can probably find more appealing options from a risk/reward perspective.
#5 Won Small Warrior	He took a little cash and scored in the debut run, beating the top choice in doing so, and there might be a little upside here with just the one lifetime start. He'd benefit if a few of the pace elements hooked up.
Race Summary	Kotylos had been knocking on the door before that 7+ length romp last out, but I think his consistent overall form suggests he can step right up and be competitive with winners here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#3 Warrior's Cause	He stepped up to land a special weight race here earlier this month, and he looks fast enough to find the front in this route spot that doesn't have a ton of pace. I think he can take them the whole way.
#4 Cantstealmythunder	Nothing wrong with this honest finisher's form through three starts, and he has shown a little versatility that should allow him to adapt to the race as it unfolds -- he can run from the back if the pace heats up.
#7 Worlds on High	Tactical speed has been settling underneath in recent starts, but he seems like a decent enough fit with this group and makes some sense for another piece.
Race Summary	Warrior's Cause stretches out and should be able to control the pace in a spot with only one other potential forward player, and I like that he graduated quickly once showing up over the local surface.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#10 Wine in the Dark	I wouldn't want to be here if the price started to get too short while she makes her local debut, but she's turning back with some route pace that might give her a chance to finish on the turnback today. The main issue is that she hasn't shown she can pass horses yet, so a midrange price would go a long way for me.
#2 Libertalia	Her form isn't really trending in the right direction overall, but she was at least a bit better last time out and owns a handful of back races that would make her a big player. She's supposed to be competitive with this kind.
#4 Lt. Lydia	She might need the front for her best, but I think she's going to face at least enough heat to make things difficult for her to win the early battle and find enough late to get home. Not impossible, but not really for me today.
Race Summary	Wine in the Dark has some proving to do with three races' worth of fading form to her name, but I think this race might come back to someone running late, and maybe this easier group gives her a little lift in her step in the lane today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:36 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Fort Erie - Race #3

#8 LETS RUN TWO (2-1)	Always in the hunt, deserving fave at this level, but winless on turf.
#2 MS. P’S BELLA (5-1)	Ran okay on soft FE turf versus Hasn’t Hit Me Yet (5-34, $69k) and Freret (11/2-5-2 recently).
#5 PAPI’S BABY GIRL (3-1	Hit peak form when last seen a year ago, ran well of shorter layoffs.
Race Summary	LETS RUN TWO is an ultra-consistent sprinter, having run on fast, muddy, sloppy and all-weather surfaces during a 7/2-2-2 season. But she’s 0-for-4 on turf and returns on short rest after chasing the 4-1 winner at 5-1/2F last out. Bet to win and place and play 8-2 and 8-5 exactas.

Fort Erie - Race #6

#1 PUGIN (15-1)	Chance on best in 2023 debut; dam was $200k earner and an allowance route winner.
#5 VETTORI KIN (5-2)	Re-awakened in second start off Adamo claim, gaudy grass record, one to beat.
#6 A I INITIATIVE (3-1)	Rallied wide for second in last two turf tests, added ground should suit.
Race Summary	PUGIN is worth a longshot stab on the switch to a 7-for-33 barn in the last month, even though he was a stewards’ scratch in a scheduled 5-1/2F dirt sprint two weeks ago. He was 8/2-3-0 in the second half of his 4-year-old season, mostly at Woodbine, and prepped for his return with a pair of 5F workouts. Play 1-5, 5-1 and 1-6 exactas.

Fort Erie - Race #8

#10 HEADING WEST (5-2)	In top form, troubled second in repeat attempt, turf the only question.
#12 SHEBATOWN (3-1)	Wide trip at Woodbine, fanned wider while advancing on final turn.
#3 ISA BREEZE (3-1)	Lived up to hype in debut but not in follow-up try; dam won at 1-1/4 miles on turf.
Race Summary	HEADING WEST checked sharply near the far turn, regrouped with a wide rally and finished a clear second as her form continued on the upswing for this barn. She draws post 10 and was soundly beaten in her only two grass tries, but give precedent to current form with a win and place bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:37 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 5:36P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ARDIS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ARDIS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	ARDIS	5/1	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	ARDIS	6	5/1	Front-runner	89	77	85.2	76.8	70.3
4	CASTLE MAGIC	4	15/1	Front-runner	69	68	64.0	56.8	37.3
8	RAPUNZELS SONG	8	12/1	Front-runner	62	65	62.6	55.5	42.0
13	ACE REPORTER	13	4/1	Front-runner	61	59	50.9	55.5	36.0
12	SPLASH OF TONIC	12	10/1	Stalker	70	66	51.4	58.4	45.4
5	Z ZS RED	5	6/1	Stalker	73	71	42.4	67.2	55.2
9	MIZZTIFY DOLL	9	20/1	Stalker	67	59	40.8	60.7	52.7
11	COMPRESSED ENERGY	11	9/2	Trailer	85	72	59.2	70.6	61.6
1	GIO'S BABY GIRL	1	8/1	Trailer	70	62	41.0	63.8	56.3
7	SHARON'S GREY HOPE	7	7/2	Trailer	67	70	35.3	62.7	49.2
2	HONEY RED	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	58	50.8	60.2	44.2
10	CHIMES	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	62	48.4	38.4	20.9
3	MYGALJUSTICE	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	60	46.0	53.8	29.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:37 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 6	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 5:15P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A PA. RESTRICTED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * RUNAWAY STAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LEONARD'S LEGACY: Horse had a bu llet workout within the last seven days. UNCLE JOCK: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MORNING MARCH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JOSH'S HONOR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
8	RUNAWAY STAR	3/1	6/1
3	LEONARD'S LEGACY	6/1	6/1
4	UNCLE JOCK	2/1	6/1
7	MORNING MARCH	15/1	9/1
6	JOSH'S HONOR	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	JOSH'S HONOR	6	8/1	Front-runner	77	67	96.8	60.8	49.3
8	RUNAWAY STAR	8	3/1	Front-runner	79	76	87.2	70.2	63.7
3	LEONARD'S LEGACY	3	6/1	Front-runner	78	75	82.2	69.6	64.6
7	MORNING MARCH	7	15/1	Front-runner	76	74	77.5	59.0	50.0
4	UNCLE JOCK	4	2/1	Front-runner	77	77	74.0	71.2	65.2
1	KOTYLOS	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	60	84.6	63.8	51.3
5	WON SMALL WARRIOR	5	8/1	Trailer	76	62	77.7	58.8	51.3
2	GOOSE HUNTER	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	68	58.4	57.2	44.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#3 LOST IN MANHATTAN (ML=2/1)

LOST IN MANHATTAN - Generally accepted angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. This one is live today. Taking a trip down in class; has the power to make his presence felt. Just check out his latest figure, 70. That one fits in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BEYOND GONE (ML=7/5), #1 PROFESSIONAL (ML=5/2), #4 BIG FALCON ROCKET (ML=8/1),

BEYOND GONE - 7/5 is not offering enough value for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance race lately. PROFESSIONAL - If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down regularly. BIG FALCON ROCKET - This vulnerable equine hasn't been close to the winner at the finish recently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LOST IN MANHATTAN - I always check out the animal that is utmost in earnings per start. If he meets my criteria I make a bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 LOST IN MANHATTAN to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17900 Class Rating: 56

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 HOSANNA 2/1
# 2 SURE FIRE READY 5/2
# 7 MISS ELLIE 7/2

HOSANNA looks decent to best this field. Has run well when running a dirt sprint race. With a sound jockey who has won at a formidable 18 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top choices. She has been racing admirably lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figs. SURE FIRE READY - Is hard not to examine given the company run in as of late. With a reliable rider who has won at a quite good 33 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 59

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 KOBE'S LEGACY 5/1
# 8 GAMBLING MAN 8/1
# 2 CODYS EXPRESS 4/1

I've got to go with KOBE'S LEGACY. Has performed admirably recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 60 avg speed rating. Englehart and Davila have a good win percentage together. Should expect a solid effort with the class drop. GAMBLING MAN - Will make a good showing versus this bunch. Displays sound speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group. CODYS EXPRESS - Torelli has him trained admirably to break speedily out of the starting gate. Ran a strong last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2023, 05:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,900 Class Rating: 32

Rating:

#3 TWILIGHT BEAUTY (ML=7/2)

TWILIGHT BEAUTY - Trainer, Donjuan, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. After the event aboard this horse on August 3rd, the jockey is going to know the filly much better. This filly's last speed rating garnered on August 3rd is number one in last race Equibase speed figures. Has a good chance to break maiden moving to the dirt in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MISS SOLAN (ML=5/2), #4 OUTPOST GIRL (ML=3/1), #5 SHEZ IN A TIZZY (ML=4/1),

MISS SOLAN - Hasn't raced or had any works since July 20th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. Don't believe this entrant will make an impact in today's event. That last fig was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's Equibase class figure. OUTPOST GIRL - This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance races. Difficult to bet on her in this contest. This mount hasn't been close at the finish lately. SHEZ IN A TIZZY - 4/1 is not worth it for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race recently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TWILIGHT BEAUTY - The race on August 3rd had a class rating of 53 while today's class rating is 32. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 TWILIGHT BEAUTY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**ConleyPicks** · 08-15-2023, 11:43 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Texas Rangers w/Montgomery -160 over LA Angels

**ConleyPicks** · 08-15-2023, 11:43 AM

Free play from Totals4U
Tuesday Free Selection: Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers over 9

**ConleyPicks** · 08-15-2023, 11:44 AM

Free play from #1 Sports
Tuesday's Free Play: Texas Rangers -170

**ConleyPicks** · 08-15-2023, 11:44 AM

Free play from Easy Money Sports
Free Tuesday Baseball Selection From Lee
TORONTO w/Kikuchi -101

**ConleyPicks** · 08-15-2023, 11:44 AM

Free play from Huddle Up Sports
Tuesday Free Play
Seattle Hancock -144

**ConleyPicks** · 08-15-2023, 11:44 AM

Free play from Teyas Sports
FREE PICK 8/15/2023 MLB MINNESOTA -180

Tuesday 8/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 8/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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