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Wednesday 8/16/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
We feel that Andrew Abbot (7-3, 2.95 ERA) and the revenge-minded home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot after falling 3-0 in yesterday's series opener. Note that the Reds are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Cleveland counters with Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 3.71), who we feel is in over his head here in this difficult road venue; consider Cincinnati!
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our Wednesday Free Play. Toronto won the opener of this series last night 2-1 behind another solid outing from Yusei Kikuchi to make it two straight wins. The Blue Jays remain in the third Wild Card spot but look to be overpriced tonight in a very good pitching battle. The Phillies have dropped three straight games following a 6-1 run as the offense has been completely shut down, scoring just two runs during the recent skid. Philadelphia is still in the top Wild Card spot in the National League, one game up on the Giants. Aaron Nola has not been the dominant pitcher we are used to seeing but after allowing five runs in two straight games, he allowed just one run over five innings last time out. Despite a 4.49 ERA, he still possesses a potent 1.14 WHIP across 24 starts. Kevin Gausman is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he shut out the Guardians over seven innings while allowing only four hits and no walls. Despite a 2.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 11 home starts, Toronto is just 6-5 in those games. Here, we play on National League road teams hitting between .255 and .269 and batting .200 or worse over their last three games going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-20 (64.9 percent) since 1997. Play (923) Philadelphia Phillies
Jeff Alexander
1* MLB - Phillies/Blue Jays FREE Pick on Blue Jays -140
Wednesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Toronto Blue Jays as a -140 home favorite against the Philadelphia Phillies. I like the price with Toronto in this one. Blue Jays will have Kevin Gausman on the mound. He's got a 3.04 ERA in 23 starts, 2.71 ERA in 11 home starts and a 2.08 ERA over his last 3 outings. Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola, who has been a major disappointment in 2023. Nola is 9-8 with a 4.49 ERA in 24 starts. He's got a 5.15 ERA in 14 road starts and a 6.60 ERA over his last 3 outings. Bet the Blue Jays -140!
Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Baltimore over San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.
The Padres jumped all over the Orioles last night, scoring seven runs in the first two innings en route to a 10-3 victory. That evened this series at one game apiece. I expect the Orioles to bounce back in Wednesday's series finale. Dean Kremer will take the ball for Baltimore. He's not a household name by any means but the right-hander has been quietly effective since getting off to a rocky start to the season back in April. Kremer was tagged for four earned runs or more in five of his six April outings. Since then, he's allowed more than three earned runs just three times over his last 18 starts. He'll be starting on full rest (five days) after allowing just 8-of-29 batters to reach base in a seven-inning outing against the Astros last Thursday. Note that the O's enter this contest having come away victorious in each of Kremer's last seven starts. Blake Snell will counter for the Padres. San Diego has won each of his last four outings. Much like Kremer, Snell got off to a poor start this season before settling down. My concern here is that we've seen some cracks in his armor recently as he has allowed five earned runs in 11 innings over his last two outings. Prior to that he had given up just two earned runs combined over his previous six starts. Over his last three starts, Snell has allowed 22-of-68 batters to reach base. If you have a tendency to put baserunners on, as Snell does, the O's do have a lineup capable of making you pay. Thanks to last night's lopsided result, the O's were able to keep their key bullpen arms idle, including closer Felix Bautista. There's not a lot separating these two relief corps, although it's worth noting that the Padres 'pen has logged a lofty 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games while Baltimore relievers posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Baltimore.
I'll take my chances with the Orioles as a +158 road dog against the Padres. Baltimore has the best record in the AL and second best record overall (3.5 back of the Braves) at 74-46. No way should they be this big of a dog on Wednesday, especially with a decent starter going in Dean Kremer. While Kremer's 4.50 ERA and 1.318 WHIP aren't great, Orioles are 18-6 when he's on the mound, 7-3 in his 10 road starts and winners in each of his last 7 starts. Baltimore is also playing the better baseball. Even with yesterday's blowout win, Padres are 2-7 in their last 9. Orioles are 8-4 in their last 12. Give me Baltimore +158!
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