Thursday 8/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:12 AM

Jeff Siegel'd What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/17/23

August 17, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Kissed by Fire
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none. 6-Make It Snow.

Forecast: Kissed by Fire may be a hard one to trust after failing to deliver the goods as the favorite in each of her last two starts, most recently at even money in a similar maiden sprint over this course and distance last month. In that race, the Peter Eurton-trained filly was under pressure through quick splits before being tagged close home in a race that was judged to be about par for the level. Today’s event contains less projected early speed, so the daughter of Friesan Fire shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast during the opening quarter and half, which will allow a much better chance of wiring the field. That said, she’s listed at 4/5 on the morning line and there’s really not a whole lot we can do with her at that price.

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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Magazine 7-Sweet Hello; 6-Modera
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Hot Rod Mama.

Forecast: Here’s a soft restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares that probably should be treated with caution. Magazine plummets in class and may have found her friends. She was an easy winner at Pleasanton in maiden special weight company two races back and a repeat of that race today makes her the one to beat. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Sweet Hello, claimed for $32,000 in late May out of a last place finish (beaten 28 lengths) and today showing up for half that amount after nearly three months on the sidelines. A repeat of her 17 length maiden claiming win might be good enough, but who knows what her current condition is? Modera looks a bit intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line. She is stretching out for the first time and has a steady, one-paced style in her sprints that could work around two turns. She comes from a low profile, low percentage outfit but is competitive based strictly on numbers.

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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-She’s Resilient; 6-Primrose Ridge
Backups/savers/Underneath: 3-Court Snort.

Forecast: She’s Resilient moves up a notch following a $40,000 claim by Steve Knapp last month and moves to turf for the first time in this abbreviated sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies. She’s the fastest in the field based on speed figures, and because she’s a perfect two-for-two over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields there is a reasonable expectation that she won’t have any issue with the change in surface. Primrose Ridge is an intriguing invader from Gulfstream Park seeking valuable ship-and-win bonus purse money. Her form last year overseas wasn’t bad, and she earned a competitive speed figure when unplaced chasing much tougher stakes foes in her U.S. debut last March. She’s also a first time Lasix user for new trainer Simon Callaghan, and is likely to make an impression from the head of the lane to the wire.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Misty Muppet
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Beau Soleil.

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this bottom-rung maiden $32,000 claimer for juvenile fillies. Misty Muppet drops dramatically in class after finishing fifth of six in an infinitely stronger straight maiden race at Los Alamitos last month in a race won by Benedetta, who returned to run second in Grade-2 stakes last weekend. Even in defeat, the daughter of Tonalist earned a speed figure that almost certainly would beat this field, so with the switch to leading rider Juan Hernandez the Michael McCarthy-trained filly looks set to graduate. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and will get the bulk of the play in the rolling exotics.

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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Paleo’s Princess; 1-Pegs A. K. Girl
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Paleo’s Princess stretches out for the first time and there’s no reason why she won’t handle the trip. She projects to be or near the lead throughout based on her sprint form and based on numbers she’s good enough to beat this starter’s allowance group of fillies and mares. There’s some wagering value at her morning line of 5-1 if you can get it. Pegs A. K. Girl exits a tougher race and lands the good rail, so front running tactics could be very effective if employed. On the other hand, she’s won from off the pace as well, so Hector Berrios could take back, get some cover, and then produce her late.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Bad Sneakers; 2-Will Be
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Bey Bey Ray.

Forecast: Bad Sneakers displayed promise as a 3-year-old in a pair of starts last year before being stopped on. He returns for trainer Mark Glatt (solid stats with layoff runners) with workouts that strongly indicate that he’s a better type this time around. The son of Gun Runner was given a solid foundation at San Luis Rey Downs before arriving at the main stable and shows two local drills, including a very sharp five furlong gate drill (:59 2/5hg) last month that was the eighth fastest of 101 without ever being let run. With top rider Juan Hernandez taking the call, this newly turned gelding looks like the one to beat. Will Be earned a strong speed figure when a solid runner-up in his debut at Los Alamitos in late June. He’s breezed quite well in the interim, so we’re expecting the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Will Take Charge to prove to be the most dangerous rival of our top pick.

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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Helladic; 7-Rexford
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Daniel’s Magic.

Forecast: Helladic may be too quick for these. The Kantharos gelding most likely will clear the field from his outside draw in this five furlong dash, and if he can get away with a moderate opening quarter he could forget to stop. Rexford is the most dangerous of the closers. First or second in three of his four previous outings over the local lawn, the Phil D'Amato-trained gelding just finished a head in front of our top pick last time out when flying home to be second, and with some help up front may tag the leaders close home.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Burton Way; 7-Bendettijoe; 10-Central Dispatch
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Burton Way appears to have found a good spot to graduate in this maiden $62,500 extended sprint for older horses. He’s a first-off-the-claim play for Robertino Diodoro (winless in four starts at the meeting but 21% with this angle), adds blinkers, and sports the route-to-sprint angle that is especially effective over this main track. He has numbers that can win and should get a patient ride from Ramon Vasquez. Bendettijoe moves up from the maiden $20,000 level in a sign of confidence by trainer Vladimir Cerin after finishing an excellent second (beaten a head) in just his second career start last month. The barn’s “go-to” rider Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount and should have this Tapit gelding doing his best work from the quarter pole home. Central Dispatch drops into a seller for the first time and seems certain to improve at this level. The son of Arrogate has plenty of zip and against this group could stick around for a long time.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:13 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/17/23

August 17, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Assertive Attitude; 7-Ride Up
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Sippican Shop

Forecast: Assertive Attitude returns as a first time gelding, first time Lasix user in this soft maiden $40,000 sprint and could easily be a better type now than he was last November, when he finished second in a three-runner affair in a straight maiden event. The son of Violence appeared to be laboring over the wet surface after displaying good early speed in his debut, and if he can catch a dry track today he might stick around a long time. Ride Up shortens up and drops into a seller for the first time while landing the cozy outside draw. He doesn’t look as good on paper as his 6/5 morning line might indicate, but his numbers are comparatively strong, and this is his softest task to date.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Chili Flag; 5-Pleasant Passage
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Chili Flag was visually quite pleasing winning a first level allowance affair at Belmont Park last month while earning a career top number, one that is good enough for a win on the raise in this second level middle distance inner turf event for fillies and mares. She was a useful type last year in France but appears to have a decent sort of future on this side of the pond. Pleasant Passage finished third in her last pair with rising numbers, but she’s a bit of a one-paced grinder and in a race that projects to have soft early fractions she could be caught for speed. We’ll have her on our ticket while reserving the main punch for Chili Flag.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:27 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Citizen K; 6-Agent Creed
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Citizen K and Agent Creed are difficult to separate; each has recent speed figures that are good enough to win, so the race may boil down to which one enjoys the better trip in this state bred second level allowance middle distance turf event. The former is a bit more versatile, having won in gate-to-wire fashion and from off the pace, so from his inside draw the veteran Mizzen Mast gelding should be able to adjust to whatever pace flow develops. ‘Creed lacks tactical speed but on his best day he can turn it on late. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preparing Citizen K on top.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Built to Last
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: After a couple of months off and exiting a series of tougher starter’s allowance races, Built to Last returns to his claim level in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 seller, and if he produces his best effort the Chris Englehart-trained son of Freud should be able to regain his winning form. Certainly not one to totally trust (he’s 1-for-15), the four-year-old ridgling nevertheless projects to be on or near the lead from his rail draw, and with speed figures that give him a clear edge he may offer a bit of value at or near his morning line of 7/2.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:33 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Accommodate Eva; 3-Miz Mastery; 8-Hayes Bay
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Leslie’s Loot.

Forecast: This maiden sprint for juvenile fillies is restricted to those that brought or were bought back for $50,000 in their most recent auction. It’s a guessing game, to be sure, so tread lightly. Accommodate Eva vans up from Churchill Downs to take advantage of the condition (not to mention the $83,000 purse) and we suspect is here to win. The daughter of Munnings shows some decent workout clocking’s and should be plenty fit, so ion a wide open affair at 5-1 on the morning line she seems as good as any. Miz Mastery looks to have breezed in decent style (we have no video on her) and may fit with these. Ay 6-1 on the morning line she offers a price chance. Hayes Bay brought $75,000 through the ring as a yearling (as shown in the DRF) but actually was bought back for $42,000 at the subsequent OBS April sale (where she previewed in an ordinary 10 3/5 seconds), which makes her eligible for the race. Her local drills aren’t terrible, so at 10-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ski Patrol; 8-Sugar Gray Leonard; 6-Ignited.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-King James.

Forecast: We’ll spread the sixth race, a starter allowance ($50,000) turf sprint for older horses that offers several possibilities. Ski Patrol makes his first start since being claimed by Linda Rice for this price (26% with this angle) and has numbers that can win at this level. A closing second over a mile last month, the son of Pioneerof the Nile turns back in trip and actually will be sprinting for the first time in his 10th career outing. He’ll be rolling late. Sugar Gray Leonard, in the frame in his last pair at this level, so far has preferred to run second or third (six times) rather than win (once) but he’s a fit on figures and retains Irad Ortiz, Jr. Ignited is a Laurel Park invader with good, consistent form but he’s a bit light in the speed figure department, so improvement will be necessary. The veteran Into Mischief gelding has enough tactical speed to be in the right spot at the right if good enough.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:39 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Notinamillionyears; 1-Tangential; 7-Mirabella
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Mom’s Right.

Forecast: Notinamillionyears, a $450,000 yearling at Keeneland, finally makes it to the post and has looked the part of a nice sort in morning drills leading up to the mile turf affair for older maiden fillies and mares. The daughter of No Nay Never is one of two entrants from the Chad Brown stable, the other being Tangential, who went last seen was missing by a neck in a good maiden juvenile grass router at Aqueduct last November. Her comeback drills at Monmouth Park look solid and should have her fit enough to return as well as she left. Mirabella is gradually improving with racing, most recently finishing second after striking the front in mid-stretch before being worn down late in a maiden router at Monmouth Park last month. With another forward move, she’ll be right there.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:14 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Giroovin; 4-Clubhouse; 5-Win for Gold
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Kushan Bridge

Forecast: Here’s a difficult affair offering a few chances. Giroovin looked solid winning a $25,000 open sprint for 3-year-olds only over this track and distance last month and is protected on the raise for solid barn but one that has yet to register a win at this meeting. The son of Girvin earned a career top speed figure in that race and if he duplicate that outing today he can win again. Clubhouse crushed a softer restricted (nw2) $25,000 field here eight days ago and wheeled back on short rest by a low percentage outfit following a claim from Todd Pletcher in this starter’s allowance ($50,000) affair. His numbers make him competitive at this level, but the real question is, can the son of Speightstown run as well off the former conditioner’s training or will he crash and burn for Gustavo Rodriguez, he of the seven percent win rate this year and just 12% with the first-off-the-claim angle. Who knows? Win for Gold has plenty of zip but always seems to feel the heat in the final sixteenth. He took a clear lead into the lane when facing similar foes last month but couldn’t find anything extra under pressure in the final sixteenth and wound up a weakening second. He’ll take them as far as he can.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:46 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ramblin’ Wreck; 6-Let’s Go Big Blue
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ramblin’ Wreck missed at odds-on in a similar two turn stakes for state-bred sophomores but will have every chance to make amends from his good inside draw. He may have been a victim of an overconfident ride last time out when permitting the controlling speed in the race to get very brave through slow splits, but we suspect Irad Ortiz, Jr. won’t let that happen again. Let’s Go Big Blue has rising speed figures and earned a career top number when winning a state-bred stakes over the local lawn earlier this month. With a similar effort today, the son of Cairo Prince can be a major threat right back,

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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Street Rod
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Screw Loose; 7-Laurel Valley.

Forecast: Street Rod looks interesting in the Thursday nightcap, an abbreviated turf sprint for maiden state-bred older horses. The son of War Dancer was entered for grass (for which he is bred) in his debut but the race was transferred to the main track, and he wound up fifth while appearing to struggle a bit with the surface. Hopefully, he’ll get his chance on the sod today. A recent bullet half mile breeze (:47 flat, fastest of 52) certainly catches the eye, and with the switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., and the addition of Lasix we’re expecting to see a vastly improved performance. Let’s make him a win play at or near his morning line of 9/2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:13 AM

Jon White: Alabama and Del Mar Oaks Picks

August 16, 2023 | By Jon White
Ten 3-year-old fillies are scheduled to clash at 1 1/4 miles on dirt in the Grade I Alabama Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday (Aug. 19).

Before I get to my selections for this year’s Alabama, I did a little digging to find out how in the heck this race at a New York track got its name.

Was this race first run in Alabama and then moved to New York? No.

Many stakes races are named after a horse. Does the Alabama Stakes get its name from an outstanding filly from way back when? Nope.

The first running of the Alabama Stakes in 1872 originally was intended to be named after prominent owner and breeder William Cottrill. A modest individual, Cottrill insisted that the race not be named after him. Thus, there would be no Cottrill Stakes to go along with the Travers Stakes for 3-year-olds, named after William R. Travers, president of the Saratoga Racing Association. As a compromise, to comply with Cottrill’s wishes to not name the race after him, track management instead named it after his home state. He was a native of Mobile, Ala.

While researching how the Alabama Stakes got its name in 1872, I found out that Cottrill won the 1884 Kentucky Derby with Buchanan. Cottrill owned the colt in partnership with Samuel S. Brown.

Guiding Buchanan to his Kentucky Derby victory for Cottrill and Brown was none other than one of the greatest jockeys of all time, Isaac Murphy. An African-American, Murphy had “a natural rapport with horses that bordered on the occult,” William H.P. Robertston wrote in his book “The History of Thoroughbred Racing in America.”

“Disdaining indiscriminate use of whip and spur,” Robertson continued, “Murphy got the most out of his mounts by coaxing and nursing, never asking them to do more than win -- which they did with fantastic frequency, as his lifetime record of 628 victories in 1,412 races will attest. Murphy’s overall 44 percent winning average has never been approached.”

Murphy was honored as an original inductee into racing’s national Hall of Fame in 1955.

In 1884, Buchanan became the first maiden to win the Kentucky Derby. He also won it in his first start of the year, not an easy task since it was a 1 1/2-mile race at that time.

In the book “The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes,” Richard Sowers wrote: “Issac Murphy clearly stated that he didn’t want to ride Buchanan in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps it was because Buchanan had been winless in six starts as a juvenile, although he had demonstrated considerable promise: five runner-up finishes and a third-place showing.”

Buchanan’s demeanor was another possible reason Murphy did not want to ride the colt in the Kentucky Derby. Contemporary accounts described Buchanan as being “difficult and unruly.”

According to Sowers, Murphy had a contract to ride for trainer William Bird, a fellow African-American, and Louisville Jockey Club officials insisted that Murphy either honor the contract and ride Buchanan or skip the race.

Murphy relented and rode Buchanan to a one-length victory. Murphy would go on to win the Kentucky Derby twice more, aboard Riley in 1890 and Kingman in 1891.

When Buchanan won the Kentucky Derby, Murphy was one of many African-American jockeys involved in the sport. In “The First Kentucky Derby,” an excellent new book written by Mark Shrager, he points out that 13 of the 15 jockeys in the first Kentucky Derby were African-American, including Oliver Lewis, who rode the victorious Aristides. In fact, an African-American jockey won 15 of the first 28 Kentucky Derbies.

In “The First Kentucky Derby,” Shrager writes entertainingly about “one shady owner,” H. Price McGrath, known for being a big-time gambler, and Aristides, “the little red horse that wasn’t supposed to win” the first Derby.

Aristides did win that first Kentucky Derby despite having been put in the race as a “rabbit” for his more highly regarded and more accomplished stablemate, Chesapeake, who finished eighth.

An informative chapter titled “The Rise and Fall of the Black Jockey in America” details how African-American jockeys went from playing a vital role in American racing to their virtual disappearance.

I highly recommend Shragar’s book to anyone who, like yours truly, has an interest in horse racing’s history.

The Cottrill Stakes -- oops, I mean Alabama Stakes -- has been won by such outstanding fillies as Gamely, Shuvee, Desert Vixen, Mom’s Command, Go for Wand, Sky Beauty, Heavenly Prize, Silverbulletday, Blind Luck, Royal Delta, Songbird, Swiss Skydiver, Malathaat and Nest last year.

The favorite this year is expected to be Wet Paint, trained by Brad Cox.

It appears that the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Alabama will be a plus for Wet Paint, a stretch-running Kentucky-bred Blame filly. Wet Paint rallied to win Saratoga’s Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks by a neck at the shorter trip of 1 1/8 miles on July 22.

I am going to try to beat Wet Paint with Sacred Wish. After stalking the early pace in the CCA Oaks, Sacred Wish had a 2 1/2-length lead with a furlong to go, only to get nailed by Wet Paint in the closing yards.

If Sacred Wish could not quite hold off Wet Paint in a 1 1/8-mile race, it’s fair for you to wonder why I believe Sacred Wish can win this longer 1 1/4-mile race. I think it’s going to help Sacred Wish that her jockey in the Alabama, Manny Franco, is more familiar with her after riding the filly for the first time in the CCA Oaks.

In the CCA Oaks, Franco opened up a clear lead on Sacred Wish in upper stretch. Franco was being aggressive and trying to get the jump on everyone, which was understandable in that he was riding a 10-1 shot. I applaud Franco for doing that. It nearly worked.

But I think Franco might ride Sacred Wish a bit differently this time. I expect Franco to have more confidence in Sacred Wish and ride her more patiently, especially since the Alabama is a furlong longer than the CCA Oaks. If that happens, it just might be the key to Sacred Wish winning the Alabama and turning the tables on likely favorite Wet Paint.

Below are my Alabama Stakes selections:

1. Sacred Wish
2. Wet Paint
3. Gambling Girl
4. Julia Shining

Gambling Girl belongs on the list of Alabama contenders. She’s attempting to rebound from an 8 3/4-length defeat as the 6-5 favorite when third in the CCA Oaks. She was the CCA Oaks chalk after finishing a close second in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks.

Julia Shining, who has a regal pedigree as a daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia, has not been postward since finishing third in the Grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 7. Winner of the Grade II Demoiselle Stakes at 2, Julia Shining has the breeding to suggest that she might get better as she gets older, like a fine wine. I think there is a possibility she becomes a top filly during the second half of this year or, if not, perhaps next year.

DEL MAR OAKS SELECTIONS

This Saturday’s Grade I Del Mar Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles on turf has enticed a field of 10.

Like the Alabama, the honor roll of past Del Mar Oaks winners has many outstanding fillies on it, such as Turkish Trousers, Taisez Vous, Heartlight No. One, Hidden Light, Flawlessly, Hollywood Wildcat, Twice the Vice, Golden Apples, Evening Jewel, Going Global and Spendarella last year.

My choice in this year’s Del Mar Oaks is Anisette, who is two for two this year in this country after racing in Great Britain last year. Both wins this year have come in grass races. She won one of three starts last year, all in races on synthetic footing.

In her first 2023 start, Anisette trailed early in the field of 12, then rocketed home to win a one-mile Santa Anita allowance race by three-quarters of a length on May 29. She competed against older opponents on that occasion.

Running against 3-year-olds only in Del Mar’s Grade II San Clemente Stakes at one mile on July 22, Anisette was 10th early in the field of 14. Again closing furiously, she took the lead in upper stretch and drew clear to win with authority by 2 1/2 lengths.

Anisette gives every indication to me that she is going to relish going a furlong farther in the Del Mar Oaks.

Leonard Powell trains Anisette, a Great Britain-bred Awtaad filly. Powell won the 2018 Del Mar Oaks with Fatale Bere.

Below are my Del Mar Oaks selections:

1. Anisette
2. Window Shopping
3. Be Your Best
4. Big Pond

Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella won the 2003 Del Mar Oaks with Dessert. Mandella has Window Shopping and Ruby Nell entered in this year’s renewal.

Window Shopping is the more accomplished of the Mandella-trained duo. The Kentucky-bred filly, a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, is switching back to turf after winning Santa Anita’s Grade II Summertime Oaks on dirt June 3.

In Window Shopping’s only grass start, she finished sixth at Del Mar last Nov. 13 in her career debut. She has improved dramatically since that Nov. 13 race in which she recorded a 64 Beyer Speed Figure. She received an 85 Beyer for her Summertime Oaks triumph.

Ruby Nell is making her stakes debut Saturday. On the plus side, she goes into the Del Mar Oaks having put together back-to-back wins on turf.

Be Your Best was an early pace factor before finishing ninth in the Grade I Belmont Oaks Invitational at 1 1/4 miles on turf July 8. She should benefit from Saturday’s shorter 1 1/8-mile trip. Be Your Best lost the 1 1/8-mile Wonder Again Stakes by only a neck when the runner-up in that Grade II grass affair at Belmont Park on June 11.

Big Pond is interesting to me in the Del Mar Oaks. Granted, the California-bred filly is meeting tougher after winning her first two starts. But I believe that she just might be good enough to do well Saturday.

When last seen under silks, Big Pond won Del Mar’s seven-furlong Fleet Treat Stakes at 7-2 against state-breds. Among the vanquished that day was Ceiling Crusher, who finished third as a 1-5 favorite in her first career loss after winning the Evening Jewel Stakes by 15 1/2 lengths and Melair Stakes by 17 lengths, both at Santa Anita.

This will be Big Pond’s first start on turf. I won’t be surprised if she becomes an effective grass runner.

FIVE STAR GENERAL WINS LONGACRES MILE

“When this year’s Longacres Mile is over, I’m hoping that they are saluting a general in the winner’s circle,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com last week.

Well, it turned out that they were indeed saluting my top pick, Five Star General, in the winner’s circle after the Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs last Sunday (Aug. 13).

Five Star General won by 1 1/2 lengths and made history. He became the first horse in the 88-year existence of the Longacres Mile to finish third or better in four consecutive renewals, all for a different trainer.

When Five Star General finished third in 2020, 2021 and 2022, his trainers were Glen Todd, then Sandi Gann, then Doris Harwood.

Grant Forster trained Five Star General for this year’s victory. Forster said that while he was growing up in Vancouver, B.C., winning the Longacres Mile “was the ultimate dream.”

Fortster now has had this dream come true twice. He won the 2005 Longacres Mile with No Giveaway at odds of 60-1, the biggest upset in the race’s history.

Five Star General was sent away as a slight $2.00 to $1 favorite last Sunday. Slew’s Tiz Whiz, who went off at $2.40 to $1, was thwarted in his bid for back-to-back Longacres Mile wins.

When Slew’s Tiz Whiz won the race by 2 3/4 lengths last year, he defeated Five Star General by 4 1/4 lengths.

Five Star General went into this year’s Longacres Mile in better form than in his three previous tries. That was a major reason I made him my top pick.

In Five Star General’s three most recent starts prior to the 2020 Longacres Mile, his Beyers were 82, 84 and 80.

In his three most recent starts prior to the 2021 Mile, his Beyers were 85, 73 and 88.

In his three most recent starts prior to the 2022 Mile, his Beyers were 85, 77 and 84.

Five Star General’s three most recent Beyers coming into the race this year were 96, 90 and 94, quite an improvement in his form prior to his three previous Longacres Mile starts.

All three of Five Star General’s Beyers in the 90s this year exceeded Slew’s Tiz Whiz’s career-best figure, the 89 he received for his 2022 Longacres Mile victory.

In last year’s Longacres Mile, Papa’s Golden Boy set a fast pace. He ran the first six furlongs in 1:08.97 before ultimately having to settle for second when overtaken in the stretch by Slew’s Tiz Whiz.

“Without Papa’s Golden Boy in the field, I’m expecting the pace not to be so fast this year,” I wrote last week. “I think Five Star General, with the savvy veteran Joe Bravo coming in from Southern California for the ride, has a very good chance to lead from start to finish.”

I was wrong in thinking Five Star General might lead from start to finish. A Man’s Man dashed immediately to the front and showed the way in the early going. That concerned me in that Five Star General had been the early leader in all three of his previous starts this year. But this was Bravo at his finest. While A Man’s Man set the early pace, that was fine with Bravo, who kept his cool and put Five Star General into comfortable stalk mode.

Five Star General took over approaching the quarter pole, bounded past the eighth pole with a two-length advantage, then maintained a clear lead the rest of the way while completing his one-mile journey in 1:34.73.

Il Bellator finished second at 4-1 in the field of 10. Slew’s Tiz Whiz ended up third, 3 3/4 lengths behind Il Bellator.

This is an example of how Beyer Speed Figures can be a useful tool for horseplayers. For his Longacres Mile performance, Five Star General recorded yet another Beyer in the 90s, this time a career-best 97.

Il Bellator went into last Sunday’s Longacres Mile with Beyers in his three starts this year of 95, 93 and 90. Again, these three figures were all higher than Slew’s Tiz Whiz’s lifetime top of 89.

Based on their Beyers this year in the 90s, it really should have come as no surprise that both Five Star General and Il Bellator outran Slew’s Tiz Whiz last Sunday. Slew’s Tiz Whiz received an 88 Beyer for his effort in this year’s Longacres Mile,

Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Longacres Mile winners going back to 1992 (run at Longacres in 1992, at Yakima Meadows in 1993-95, at Emerald Downs 1996-present):

2023 Five Star General (97)
2022 Slew’s Tiz Whiz (89)
2021 Background (82)
2020 Anothertwistafate (93)
2019 Law Abidin Citizen (96)
2018 Barkley (94)
2017 Gold Rush Dancer (97)
2016 Point Piper (103)
2015 Stryker Phd (99)
2014 Stryker Phd (97)
2013 Herbie D (100)
2012 Taylor Said (98)
2011 Awesome Gem (96)
2010 Noosa Beach (99)
2009 Assessment (94)
2008 Wasserman (90)
2007 The Great Face (91)
2006 Flamethrowintexan (101)
2005 No Giveaway (93)
2004 Adreamisborn (99)
2003 Sky Jack (105)
2002 Sabertooth (96)
2001 Irisheyesareflying (100)
2000 Edneator (104)
1999 Budroyale (106)
1998 Wild Wonder (111)
1997 Kid Katabatic (105)
1996 Isitingood (105)
1995 L.J. Express (94)
1994 Want a Winner (87)
1993 Adventuresome Love (93)
1992 Bolulight (106)

REMEMBERING JIM MURRAY

The late Jim Murray is regarded by many to be the greatest sports columnist of all time.

“There was never anybody like Murray. Never will be,” former Los Angeles Times sports editor Bill Dwyre wrote in that newspaper Wednesday (Aug. 16). “He was part sports columnist, part Don Rickles and part Socrates. He wrote for The Times for 37 years and won his Pulitzer for commentary in his 30th year. The general reaction to that, at the paper, and around Los Angeles, was: What took the Pulitzer people so long? The problem was, sportswriters didn’t win Pulitzers, except if they worked for the New York Times. Still don’t. Only a writer the caliber of Murray could break the East Coast stranglehold. Now, the New York Times doesn’t even have a sports section. Ponder that, Pulitzer people.”

Dwyer explained the reason for remembering Murray in Wednesday’s Times.

“Wednesday is a reminder of a day that will live in infamy in the sports department of the Los Angeles Times. Make that the entire city,” Dwyre wrote. “It was on Aug. 16, 1998, that Jim Murray died. That’s an unthinkable 25 years ago.”

Dwyer cited a number of examples of what he described as Murray’s “legendary one-liners.” For instance, one time after Murray visited the state of Washington, he wrote: “The only trouble with Spokane as a city is that there is nothing to do after 10 o’clock. In the morning.”

I couldn’t help chuckling at that, especially as one who grew up in Spokane.

When I was working as a Daily Racing Form writer at the Southern California tracks in the 1980s, Murray would show up from time to time in the press box. He almost always would be on hand for a big race, like a Santa Anita Handicap or a Hollywood Gold Cup, or if Bill Shoemaker or Laffit Pincay Jr. were on the threshold of one of their many milestones.

In those years, a big race often was won by a horse trained by Charlie Whittingham. After the race, Whittingham would be brought up to the press box to be interviewed by the media. This, I assure you, was not something Whittingham liked doing. He did so grudgingly.

After seeing Whittingham go through this routine on a regular basis, I eventually noticed a trick the trainer had come up with to make sure that he would spend the least amount of time in the press box as possible.

Someone from the track’s publicity department invariably would ask Whittingham if he wanted anything to drink. He would say something like, “Sure, a Coke…and a cup.” He then would pour a less-than-robust portion of Coke into the cup.

While Whittingham answered question after question, he would keep taking a drink from time to time until the cup was empty. The empty cup was Whittingham’s signal to immediately end the press conference. It was as if an alarm sounded. He would stand up and say, “Thanks a lot, fellows,” and start heading for the exit. There were only two exceptions to this rule. If either Joe Hirsch of the Daily Racing Form or Jim Murray happened to ask him a question at that point, Whittingham would stay just a little bit longer. But if any of the rest of us in the media asked Whittingham a question after there was no Coke left in the cup, it was adios.

About Shoemaker, Murray once wrote: “He rode a horse the way Joe Dimaggio caught a fly ball. Watching Shoe ride a horse was like watching Gene Kelly dance or Gaugin paint.”

About the Kentucky Derby, Murray once wrote: “The Derby isn’t just a horse race, any more than Elizabeth Taylor is just a woman, the Taj Mahal a building or Mt. Everest a hill.”

Scott Ostler, formerly of the Los Angeles Times and now an 11-time California sportswriter of the year with the San Francisco Chronicle, put it so well for all of us who toil as writers: “You can’t write like Murray any more than you can sing like Sinatra.”

In the book “Landaluce: The Story of Seattle Slew’s first champion,” author Mary Perdue recalled Murray addressing what might have been if the Landaluce had been able to run in the Triple Crown classics in 1983 instead of dying not long before she would have turned 3.

“She might not only have been Horse of the Year but Horse of the Half Century,” Murray wrote.

In 1990, Hollywood Park honored the sports columnist by adding the Jim Murray Handicap to its stakes schedule. Following Murray’s death in 1998, the race became the Jim Murray Memorial Handicap.

Kent Desormeaux referenced Murray after winning the 2002 Jim Murray Memorial Handicap in come-from-behind fashion aboard Skipping.

“I remember reading an article by Jim about how he was infatuated with Bill Shoemaker because Shoe was so silky smooth,” Desormeaux said. “This horse couldn’t have given me a smoother ride. It was nice and poetic, like the way Jim Murray wrote.”

Unfortunately, the Jim Murray Memorial Handicap was one of the many stakes races lost when Hollywood Park closed for good following its 2013 meeting.

While it’s true that there no longer is a stakes race named after Jim Murray to help keep his memory alive, for any of us who had the pleasure to read his masterfully crafted columns, he will never be forgotten.

MY LATEST 3-YEAR-OLD MALE RANKINGS

Below is my current Top 10 in the 3-year-old male division:

Rank Horse

1. Forte
2. Geaux Rocket Ride
3. Arcangelo
4. Mage
5. Saudi Crown
6. Arabian Lion
7. Arabian Knight
8. Angel of Empire
9. National Treasure
10. Scotland

LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

Forte, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male and recent winner of Saratoga’s Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes, again holds the top spot this week in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings.

This year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4. The $6 milllion Classic will be on Nov. 4.

The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of voters comprised of members of the Breeders’ Cup Racing/Secretaries Panel, international racing and sports media, plus racing analysts.

The rankings will be updated weekly through Oct. 10.

The Top 10 in this week’s rankings are below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 294 Forte (19)
2. 226 White Abarrio (1)
3. 222 Geaux Rocket Ride (3)
4. 211 Mage (1)
5. 193 Arcangelo (1)
6. 109 Defunded (2)
7. 106 Rattle N Roll (3)
8. 71 Zandon
9. 66 Art Collector
10. 56 Proxy

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Following Casa Creed’s win in Saratoga’s Grade I Fourstardave Handicap last Saturday (Aug. 12), he cracks the Top 10 this week in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll at No. 8.

Casa Creed also won the 2022 Fourstardave. After winning last year’s Fourstardave, however, he did not crack the Top 10. Casa Creed ranked No. 12, behind No. 1 Life Is Good, No. 2 Flightline (looking back, it’s hard to believe he wasn’t in the top spot), No. 3 Jackie’s Warrior, No. 4 Clairiere, No. 5 Epicenter, No. 6 Country Grammer, No. 7 Nest, No. 8 Olympiad, No. 9 Hot Rod Charlie, No. 10 Regal Glory and No. 11 Golden Pal.

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 325 Elite Power (25)
2. 253 Cody’s Wish (6)
3. 235 Nest
4. 169 White Abarrio
5. 156 Up to the Mark
6. 150 Clairiere
7. 124 Forte (2)
8. 70 Casa Creed
9. 41 In Italian
10. 39 Goodnight Olive
10. 39 West Will Power

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:15 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #6

#2 Will Be	Think he's supposed to be tough here off a good debut run at Los Al, and he flashed enough pace that day to suggest he's in the picture from the start again today.
#3 Mixto	They tried him in a couple graded spots last year despite his still being eligible for this kind of spot, and wouldn't be any surprise while making his first start of the 3-year-old campaign. Main danger.
#4 Bad Sneakers	He ran pretty well in a couple starts here last season, and another tactical trip should be in the cards for him in this spot. Think he's capable, but maybe at an underlaid price.
Race Summary	Will Be looks tough here if he has any move forward in him off the good debut run, and those with experience in here haven't shown a ton of pace. He might be in the right spot throughout.

Del Mar - Race #7

#6 Barsabas	Willing to take a price swing with this guy who didn't miss by too much last time out, and the turf sprint form on his page is actually pretty decent considering the likely price again today.
#8 Helladic	He has some dangerous pace and draws outside a lot of the other speed here, and he's a high-ceiling threat every time he races -- he's also always a little vulnerable in the final yards. Tough call.
#1 Cool Papa G	He's back off a year and a half break for this one, but he's getting on the turf for the first time while dropping out of a couple stakes spots. Think the move back around one turn works in his favor.
Race Summary	Hoping the pace heats up a little bit to help Barsabas come alive late, as he was just a length out of it with similar last time out and will probably still be a decent price.

Del Mar - Race #8

#11 Pray For Me Ray	Finisher tends to leave himself too much to do, but he has a pretty solid late kick and tends to keep charging -- could see him getting past these while trying claimers for the first time. Mild concern about the race shape, but he might be too much late either way.
#4 Foreign Influence	He moves back around one turn and steps up in price for this one, but I think he's going to find himself in a really good spot ahead of the top choice while settled behind what pace there is. Not out of the question.
#10 Central Dispatch	He took the worst of it in an early battle last out before fading, and he gets some class relief while finding a decent draw to prompt or set the splits. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Pray For Me Ray returns in the easiest spot he has seen while hoping to fire fresh, and his reliable finishing run makes him a big threat in here if he comes back in similar form.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:15 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 LIFESPAN (5-2)	Made moves at pair of 1-to-2 winners and ran second in July, reunited with Arroyo.
#2 ZIPPER ZAPPER (8-1)	Dropped back on turn, re-rallied past the fave in deep stretch for the win.
#8 ROARING RIVER (8-5)	Towers over field on best, but last two starts are not among them.
Race Summary	Have to try to beat 8-5 morning-line favorite ROARING RIVER off his last two running lines and on the class hike off the claim. LIFESPAN is a safer bet, finishing second to a pair of odds-on winners with Arroyo aboard, then getting floated 9-wide with an apprentice jockey last out. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#5 MISS CHAMITA (7-2)	Rallied for three consecutive wins, enters 30-percent claim barn.
#2 ABIDALE (5-2)	Fits condition perfectly, loves to win, the one to beat at a short price.
#6 WHYISSHESOLUCKY (9-5)	Never better, joins others in ‘claiming’ derby, prefers fast strip.
Race Summary	No room for error in this deep field, but MISS CHAMITA offers the best value among the favorites. She seeks her fourth consecutive winning rally for as many barns and appears better suited to one mile than her record indicates. Play a trifecta key 5 over 1, 2, 6.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#4 SOCIAL GROUP (4-1)	Field’s top money-earner doesn’t back down from a battle.
#7 INSTIGATED (6-1)	First or second in 7 of 11 at distance, should sit ideal stalking trip.
#1 NEVER CHANGE (6-1)	Ran 1-2 at Laurel Park recently, makes third start in 14 days.
Race Summary	Parx invader SOCIAL GROUP survived long duels to win by a neck and a nose at 1-mile 70-yards in his last three starts. He remains hot at the claim box and lures Rodriguez to ride. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $12,200 • Post: 1:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 17. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. JOHNNY U is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JOHNNY U: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE: To day is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CALL WEST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rati ng at the distance/surface. NO BANG NO BOOM (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
2	JOHNNY U	3/1	4/1
6	MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE	2/1	6/1
1	CALL WEST	6/1	7/1
4	NO BANG NO BOOM (IRE)	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JOHNNY U	2	3/1	Front-runner	77	70	70.2	68.0	64.0
6	MR. TRIPLEDOUBLE	6	2/1	Stalker	80	74	55.4	72.0	68.5
4	NO BANG NO BOOM (IRE)	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	77	71	65.6	67.2	58.2
1	CALL WEST	1	6/1	Trailer	84	74	11.6	72.8	67.3
5	POWERFUL MOON	5	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	73	59	47.0	41.6	33.6
3	GUCCISSIMO	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	67	10.6	59.6	50.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Colonial DownsPURCHASE

Colonial Downs - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Daily Double $1 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $16,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $34,500 • Post: 4:23P
(RAIL AT 37 FEET). INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DEAR SANTA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LOOKINASSAH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/sur face. BAIL OUT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DEAR SANTA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CELTIC SEA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarte r Horse race).
2	LOOKINASSAH	4/1	5/1
1	BAIL OUT	2/1	5/1
7	DEAR SANTA	5/2	7/1
9	CELTIC SEA	30/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	DEAR SANTA	7	5/2	Front-runner	67	71	78.3	68.2	59.2
1	BAIL OUT	1	2/1	Stalker	80	68	76.6	74.8	70.8
9	CELTIC SEA	9	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	81	77.6	67.6	58.1
2	LOOKINASSAH	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	76	69.9	71.9	66.9
5	AND THE OSCAR GOES	5	30/1	Trailer	70	68	68.2	65.6	51.6
10	MAKE 'EM TAP	10	6/1	Trailer	69	70	61.4	65.6	57.1
4	NEUTRAL	4	8/1	Trailer	71	67	59.1	64.0	51.0
6	STEELE MONEY	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	61	82.5	64.5	51.5
8	KITTEN'S CLOWN	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	61	71.1	53.1	36.6
3	IMAGOODFELLA	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	61	70.8	59.7	43.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#3 TUDOX RUE MAJESTIC (ML=5/2)
#4 MAP EM UP (ML=10/1)
#5 TWISTED TREASURE (ML=6/1)

TUDOX RUE MAJESTIC - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Dominguez gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. This mare was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. This mare is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on August 1st, finishing third. MAP EM UP - My experience tells me to watch out for this racer in this event TWISTED TREASURE - Spieth and Spieth perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +25 ROI for a jock and trainer.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 REDHOT KATIE (ML=8/5), #2 NEVISIAN SPIRIT (ML=2/1),

REDHOT KATIE - Tough to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. NEVISIAN SPIRIT - Recent dropping speed figs of 74/61/56 give a sign that this equine may be going off form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 TUDOX RUE MAJESTIC to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $40200 Class Rating: 68

INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 LIPLOCK 5/2
# 4 TOTAL BETTY 12/1
# 3 ASHLEE'S RING 10/1

LIPLOCK has a quite good shot to take this race. Drexler has this filly running well and is a very strong selection based on the solid speed figures posted in sprint races lately. With one of the most respectable jockeys in terms of dividends at the window, don't count this filly out. Will probably compete admirably in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group. ASHLEE'S RING - Walcott has recent ROI figures which make this entrant a very good bet. Recorded a solid Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29700 Class Rating: 77

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE JULY 17, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. NCES).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SQUID 7/5
# 5 A SMILE A DAY 6/1
# 4 WILDCAT LADY 3/1

SQUID supports the bet in here. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group of horses. Bettors ought to feel comfortable with this selection given Peterson's recent gains at the window. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the lead recently. A SMILE A DAY - This choice will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Canuto will probably be able to get this mare to break out quickly for this race. WILDCAT LADY - She should have a good outing versus this softer field. Should be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:17 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race #8 - Post: 5:14pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#1 KUNSHAN BRIDGE (ML=3/1)
#7 GIROOVIN (ML=2/1)
#3 BIG VENEZUELA (ML=8/1)

KUNSHAN BRIDGE - Ortiz and Rice perform well when they team up. Tough to top a win percent of 31. This thoroughbred is in great demand coming off two claims in his last two starts. Don't overlook this gelding in your speculating today. This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 77 to 89 to 94 in succession. GIROOVIN - On July 16th this colt shipped in to win and looks good right back. Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the initial time on July 16th. Should be acquainted with the equine even better today. This colt has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's contest. BIG VENEZUELA - After the contest aboard this horse on August 3rd, the rider is going to know the gelding much better. This gelding is in first-rate physical condition right now. Finished third last out and comes back quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WIN FOR GOLD (ML=5/2), #4 CLUBHOUSE (ML=5/1),

WIN FOR GOLD - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this race compromises this horse's hopes. CLUBHOUSE - Going to have a hard go of it with all the early speed in this event. Finished first in his most recent effort with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - KUNSHAN BRIDGE - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 94. He is the top wager here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 KUNSHAN BRIDGE to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,7] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:21 AM

Del Mar Hotlist - August 17

Aug. 16, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Kissed by Fire just missed last time and may make amends here. (6) Make It Snow should be closing fast at the end. (2) Christina’s Candy is worth a look here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6.
3rd race – (3) Court Snort disappointed last time but can rebound here. (6) Primrose Ridge gets some class relief after racing in a stakes. (4) She’s Resilient may like turf. (2) Minedandrefined will fare better at this shorter distance. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6. Exactas: 3-6 over 2-4 and 2-4 over 3-6.
5th race – (1) Pegs A.K. Girl should control the pace and the race from the rail. (9) Zeyaraat shapes up as the main rival. (7) Dendera will be pleased to be back on turf. (3) Built Different fits in nicely here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-9. Doubles: 1-3-7-9 with 2-3-4-7.
6th race – (2) Will Be was a promising second in his debut and looks best in this spot. (3) Mixto looks sharp for his 2023 debut. (4) Bad Sneakers also is working nicely after a long layoff. (7) Broadway Unions will be a factor in the late stages. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-7.
8th race – (4) Foreign Influence will be best served by the cutback in distance. (5) Burton Way adds blinkers and will be formidable. (6) Captain Sparrow may find smooth sailing on dirt. (1) Emerald Union could perk up in a claimer. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-6.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2023, 06:21 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 17

Aug. 16, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY 40000, 6